AppleSoft: No, It Was Not Different This Time

Tyler Durden's picture

Back in late August, we presented a chart whose foresight and accuracy turned out to be so spot on, it scared even us. We asked: "With Apple overtaking Microsoft's 'peak-market-cap' and becoming the most 'valuable' company ever traded, we thought a reflection on what humans (as opposed to machines programmed by humans) did the last time a world-changing technology company went ubiquitous. Comparing AAPL's last few years to the run-up in MSFT's peak in 1999..." Or, in other words, "is it different this time?"

This is the chart we presented five months ago:

Turns out, the answer is, No. It was not different this time. It never is.

This, despite what a certain Jim Cramer said two weeks later, just as the stock hit its all time high:

"Oh, for heaven's sake, stop trading Apple and start owning it... Is this an average stock with average growth? No, it is among the greatest wealth creators in the world with a vastly superior growth-and-balance sheet. Do you want to flit in and out of Apple to catch the latest review or day's sale? Or do you want to own a stock that's just too cheap not be owned, one that money managers all over the country have to own to show that they are in the game or to beat the game going into the fourth quarter. I think owning it has it all over trading it. Nothing I heard yesterday changes my mind."

Here is the same chart as above, updated for what has transpired since:

The chart above also means that there is much more gravity to come for this particular fruit.

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Jason T's picture

history repeats because the passions of man never change.. bitchez.

Spastica Rex's picture

What we build collectively is described by our nature - like termites building mounds of mud.

The Juggernaut's picture

Whatever Jim Cramer says, simply do the opposite.  Obvi.

saints51's picture

I use the same approach when the vatican speaks.

redpill's picture

Just watch what happens when the Samsung Galaxy IV comes out in a few months.

Yancey Ward's picture

They say you shouldn't commit suicide.

Oh regional Indian's picture

Hmmm, wonder what that says about the Egyptians SR? Did we "pinacle" it back that long ago?

Apple seems to be a harbinger for the fall of many things. Apple shoudl die. It's been a social/societal disaster. THE iPod made morons of people. Inward looking morons to boot.

As for the rest, scary what this Stok's fall portends.

I say $100 or less in 6 months or less.

I hope Steve is slow roasting on an eternal flame.

 

Spastica Rex's picture

Maybe there is no pinnacle; maybe it's all just ridges and valleys, value in metaphor only.

Long time no see.

Oh regional Indian's picture

I've been a "Watcher" lately. Interesting perspective as a non-commenter. :-)

nofluer's picture

In an MIS class in 1989 we were required to contrast and compare Apple and IBM, and to project which we thought would live and which would die. I chose IBM to live, and Apple to die. One of my principle reasons was - at the time, Apple's "management" didn't understand the company or the culture they were "managing." I said, "unless Apple does something radical about their bad management, they're dead within 5 years."

As we all know, shortly after that paper, Apple brought Steve Jobs back home and, as they say, the rest is history.

Now we see a parallel situation. Apple's management is once again "not with the program", but this time there will be no bringing back Mr Jobs. For all its size, Apple has always been a niche company. As it is said, "the main business of business is business" and without translation programs and inefficient programs, Apple just doesn't DO "business." Apple computers are still essentially hippie toys and graphics machines. Had they tossed out their closed architecture when they brought Mr Jobs back they might now be a whole different company - and might have a chance at long term survival. But they didn't, so they aren't.

The only saving grace for Apple is, as I said in 1989, "it takes a long time for a $5 billion (then) corp to go down the drain." Looks like Apple is once again circling the strainer.

 

Stock Tips Investment's picture

Apple is a great company. I'm sure in the future continue to surprise us with more and better products. The market is correcting the price of this stock. We'll see it starts to rise again.

StoleYourMoney's picture

What goes up must come down!

jeff314's picture

i told that to my wife last night

Frastric's picture

What we need is for Tilson to get in on the fray in some desperate bullish last stand, then AAPL will go really rotten!

The Juggernaut's picture

Unsustainable demand gets really annoying.

Oh regional Indian's picture

A certain inevitability to that in the supply side Jaggernaut whose death throes we are currently witnessing.

Matt's picture

And they just started work on their brand new super-lair too. A shame, really. In the interest of "saving face", I bet they do not stop construction, and squander the money instead of investing in R&D to develop new tech.

Manthong's picture

Tyler must have William Tell manning the Bloomberg.

Stoploss's picture

AAPL don't fawl faw.

I am a Man I am Forty's picture

now do an earnings comparison overlapping

Uber Vandal's picture

From November 26, 2012

 

I'm up 14% in just a few days in Apple, my last purchase of 506.50 paying off.  While everyone was touchdown dancing on Apple's demise, smart money was buying at these levels.  4th quarter is going to be strong.  GOOG was downgraded today, paging Reggie.  Of course ZH not doing any pieces on Apple dominating holiday sales, showing their extremely unhealthy bias against.  LMAO.

 

I am a Man I am Forty's picture

I sold at $586 and bought back in at 510 and 486, apple crushed google last year.  Apple is going to beat earnings.  Glad your following what I've been saying though.  Did you buy HTWR, NUS, OAS, SWHC etc on my recommendations?

Oh, and assuming you don't believe the above exit I took, you are laughing your ass off being down 1%??  I'm down a 0.5% on my latest trade.  But long term holder since 220.  LMFAO

James_Cole's picture

The pin to 500 was predictable and well executed. Probably up from here.

Oh wait, I mean, apple is going to $100!!! Next week!!!!!!! March $10!! It's over, Jim Cramer's daughter doesn't even like aapl anymore!!!!

Oh and speaking of goog anyone see this funny tidbit?

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/01/18/us-google-estimates-idUSBRE90H...

nobusiness's picture

Don't you know, this time is different!

Inthemix96's picture

Far too many people (sheep), are far too easily led.

There is only one winner folks, and it certainly aint you or I.

Frastric's picture

Just those well informed... Shorted the stock around $660 after the peak, having looked back since... Plus added a put at 500...

Rainman's picture

Iphone 10 with 10 rows of icons will price new at 84 bucks.

Unprepared's picture

.. seasonally, hedonically row-inflation adjusted price?

Silver Bully's picture

'.. seasonally, hedonically row-inflation adjusted price?'

Row, row, row your boat- oh too late. This is the Titanic.

Frastric's picture

One bubble burst, now on to Japan, Europe, TBTF, UK and finally USA...

Dr. Engali's picture

What Apple needs is an even larger phone and a smaller mini They can converge the two and call it the iPad Micro.

Spastica Rex's picture

If they build a device small enough, maybe it could be the iTampon.

Dr. Engali's picture

Set the phone on vibrate and it becomes a multi-functional device....I think we are on to something Rex.

Spastica Rex's picture

OMG

But hey, why the hell not? I'll start the prior patent search.

MeelionDollerBogus's picture

Say Hellohhhh to iBrator - YouTube

Done.

Taken.

I know, you'd think this was a joke but ... while it is, obviously someone thought of it first.

Now try to replace THAT with "hedonic adjustment", Bernanke.

Stoploss's picture

iVibrator.

iVibrate.

Perfect gift for the wife.

Stoploss's picture

I got it.

Customized vibrator attachments programmable to which ever level of vibration is desired.

Although video and pics would be nice to add, AAPL has camera / video issues as well as navigation issues.

So, we will have to call Samsung on this one i think.

DeadFred's picture

Tyler, do you ever scare yourself when you're so right?

citizen2084's picture

So is the scale of absolutle price difference between the two stocks another alternative inflation measure? 

peAce

The Final Countdown's picture

Goes to show the nifty things you can do with graphs if you scale, stretch and shift them properly. Anything is possible!

Dr. Engali's picture

Let me guess...you bought above $700 and you just know it's going to come back.

The Final Countdown's picture

Not really, though I wouldn't mind betting that before you know it, AAPL will be back above $600 after earnings.

Fascinating how negative sentiment towards AAPL is so strong among ZeroHedgers that they suddenly fail to recognize the ridiculously obvious manipulation going on with this particular stock. 

The Final Countdown's picture

I have no personal interest in AAPL stock, just stating my observations. Somehow it appears to be hard for some to separate the two things when AAPL is involved. 

I am a Man I am Forty's picture

I bought at $510 and backed up the truck at $486 (already own in the low 2's).  ZH thinks it's going to $300 according to this, Apple will have $300B in cash before it gets to a stock price of $300.