AppleSoft: No, It Was Not Different This Time

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Back in late August, we presented a chart whose foresight and accuracy turned out to be so spot on, it scared even us. We asked: "With Apple overtaking Microsoft's 'peak-market-cap' and becoming the most 'valuable' company ever traded, we thought a reflection on what humans (as opposed to machines programmed by humans) did the last time a world-changing technology company went ubiquitous. Comparing AAPL's last few years to the run-up in MSFT's peak in 1999..." Or, in other words, "is it different this time?"

This is the chart we presented five months ago:

Turns out, the answer is, No. It was not different this time. It never is.

This, despite what a certain Jim Cramer said two weeks later, just as the stock hit its all time high:

"Oh, for heaven's sake, stop trading Apple and start owning it... Is this an average stock with average growth? No, it is among the greatest wealth creators in the world with a vastly superior growth-and-balance sheet. Do you want to flit in and out of Apple to catch the latest review or day's sale? Or do you want to own a stock that's just too cheap not be owned, one that money managers all over the country have to own to show that they are in the game or to beat the game going into the fourth quarter. I think owning it has it all over trading it. Nothing I heard yesterday changes my mind."

Here is the same chart as above, updated for what has transpired since:

The chart above also means that there is much more gravity to come for this particular fruit.

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Fri, 01/18/2013 - 11:21 | 3166135 Jason T
Jason T's picture

history repeats because the passions of man never change.. bitchez.

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 11:34 | 3166211 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

What we build collectively is described by our nature - like termites building mounds of mud.

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 11:39 | 3166239 The Juggernaut
The Juggernaut's picture

Whatever Jim Cramer says, simply do the opposite.  Obvi.

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 11:48 | 3166276 saints51
saints51's picture

I use the same approach when the vatican speaks.

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 11:54 | 3166298 redpill
redpill's picture

Just watch what happens when the Samsung Galaxy IV comes out in a few months.

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 13:28 | 3166626 SafelyGraze
SafelyGraze's picture

itunes

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 12:03 | 3166324 Yancey Ward
Yancey Ward's picture

They say you shouldn't commit suicide.

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 11:43 | 3166253 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

Hmmm, wonder what that says about the Egyptians SR? Did we "pinacle" it back that long ago?

Apple seems to be a harbinger for the fall of many things. Apple shoudl die. It's been a social/societal disaster. THE iPod made morons of people. Inward looking morons to boot.

As for the rest, scary what this Stok's fall portends.

I say $100 or less in 6 months or less.

I hope Steve is slow roasting on an eternal flame.

 

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 11:56 | 3166301 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

Maybe there is no pinnacle; maybe it's all just ridges and valleys, value in metaphor only.

Long time no see.

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 12:05 | 3166329 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

I've been a "Watcher" lately. Interesting perspective as a non-commenter. :-)

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 12:56 | 3166530 nofluer
nofluer's picture

In an MIS class in 1989 we were required to contrast and compare Apple and IBM, and to project which we thought would live and which would die. I chose IBM to live, and Apple to die. One of my principle reasons was - at the time, Apple's "management" didn't understand the company or the culture they were "managing." I said, "unless Apple does something radical about their bad management, they're dead within 5 years."

As we all know, shortly after that paper, Apple brought Steve Jobs back home and, as they say, the rest is history.

Now we see a parallel situation. Apple's management is once again "not with the program", but this time there will be no bringing back Mr Jobs. For all its size, Apple has always been a niche company. As it is said, "the main business of business is business" and without translation programs and inefficient programs, Apple just doesn't DO "business." Apple computers are still essentially hippie toys and graphics machines. Had they tossed out their closed architecture when they brought Mr Jobs back they might now be a whole different company - and might have a chance at long term survival. But they didn't, so they aren't.

The only saving grace for Apple is, as I said in 1989, "it takes a long time for a $5 billion (then) corp to go down the drain." Looks like Apple is once again circling the strainer.

 

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 12:17 | 3166379 Stock Tips Inve...
Stock Tips Investment's picture

Apple is a great company. I'm sure in the future continue to surprise us with more and better products. The market is correcting the price of this stock. We'll see it starts to rise again.

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 11:22 | 3166139 StoleYourMoney
StoleYourMoney's picture

What goes up must come down!

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 11:23 | 3166152 jeff314
jeff314's picture

i told that to my wife last night

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 11:26 | 3166169 Frastric
Frastric's picture

What we need is for Tilson to get in on the fray in some desperate bullish last stand, then AAPL will go really rotten!

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 11:41 | 3166220 The Juggernaut
The Juggernaut's picture

Unsustainable demand gets really annoying.

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 11:45 | 3166260 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

A certain inevitability to that in the supply side Jaggernaut whose death throes we are currently witnessing.

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 13:38 | 3166650 Matt
Matt's picture

And they just started work on their brand new super-lair too. A shame, really. In the interest of "saving face", I bet they do not stop construction, and squander the money instead of investing in R&D to develop new tech.

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 11:28 | 3166183 Manthong
Manthong's picture

Tyler must have William Tell manning the Bloomberg.

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 15:14 | 3167088 BlueCheeseBandit
BlueCheeseBandit's picture

So did I.

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 11:23 | 3166145 Stoploss
Stoploss's picture

AAPL don't fawl faw.

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 11:25 | 3166146 I am a Man I am...
I am a Man I am Forty's picture

now do an earnings comparison overlapping

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 12:10 | 3166351 Uber Vandal
Uber Vandal's picture

From November 26, 2012

 

I'm up 14% in just a few days in Apple, my last purchase of 506.50 paying off.  While everyone was touchdown dancing on Apple's demise, smart money was buying at these levels.  4th quarter is going to be strong.  GOOG was downgraded today, paging Reggie.  Of course ZH not doing any pieces on Apple dominating holiday sales, showing their extremely unhealthy bias against.  LMAO.

 

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 14:52 | 3166989 I am a Man I am...
I am a Man I am Forty's picture

I sold at $586 and bought back in at 510 and 486, apple crushed google last year.  Apple is going to beat earnings.  Glad your following what I've been saying though.  Did you buy HTWR, NUS, OAS, SWHC etc on my recommendations?

Oh, and assuming you don't believe the above exit I took, you are laughing your ass off being down 1%??  I'm down a 0.5% on my latest trade.  But long term holder since 220.  LMFAO

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 16:52 | 3167360 James_Cole
James_Cole's picture

The pin to 500 was predictable and well executed. Probably up from here.

Oh wait, I mean, apple is going to $100!!! Next week!!!!!!! March $10!! It's over, Jim Cramer's daughter doesn't even like aapl anymore!!!!

Oh and speaking of goog anyone see this funny tidbit?

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/01/18/us-google-estimates-idUSBRE90H...

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 17:29 | 3167407 James_Cole
James_Cole's picture

500.00 close, nailed it!

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 11:23 | 3166147 nobusiness
nobusiness's picture

Don't you know, this time is different!

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 11:23 | 3166148 Inthemix96
Inthemix96's picture

Far too many people (sheep), are far too easily led.

There is only one winner folks, and it certainly aint you or I.

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 11:28 | 3166178 Frastric
Frastric's picture

Just those well informed... Shorted the stock around $660 after the peak, having looked back since... Plus added a put at 500...

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 11:24 | 3166150 Rainman
Rainman's picture

Iphone 10 with 10 rows of icons will price new at 84 bucks.

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 11:33 | 3166205 Unprepared
Unprepared's picture

.. seasonally, hedonically row-inflation adjusted price?

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 12:00 | 3166311 Silver Bully
Silver Bully's picture

'.. seasonally, hedonically row-inflation adjusted price?'

Row, row, row your boat- oh too late. This is the Titanic.

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 11:24 | 3166155 Frastric
Frastric's picture

One bubble burst, now on to Japan, Europe, TBTF, UK and finally USA...

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 11:27 | 3166156 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

What Apple needs is an even larger phone and a smaller mini They can converge the two and call it the iPad Micro.

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 11:36 | 3166221 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

If they build a device small enough, maybe it could be the iTampon.

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 11:38 | 3166232 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Set the phone on vibrate and it becomes a multi-functional device....I think we are on to something Rex.

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 11:52 | 3166292 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

OMG

But hey, why the hell not? I'll start the prior patent search.

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 11:56 | 3166306 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

LOl..

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 22:57 | 3168270 MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

Say Hellohhhh to iBrator - YouTube

Done.

Taken.

I know, you'd think this was a joke but ... while it is, obviously someone thought of it first.

Now try to replace THAT with "hedonic adjustment", Bernanke.

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 12:09 | 3166341 Stoploss
Stoploss's picture

iVibrator.

iVibrate.

Perfect gift for the wife.

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 12:13 | 3166360 Stoploss
Stoploss's picture

I got it.

Customized vibrator attachments programmable to which ever level of vibration is desired.

Although video and pics would be nice to add, AAPL has camera / video issues as well as navigation issues.

So, we will have to call Samsung on this one i think.

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 11:25 | 3166160 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

Tyler, do you ever scare yourself when you're so right?

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 11:25 | 3166162 citizen2084
citizen2084's picture

So is the scale of absolutle price difference between the two stocks another alternative inflation measure? 

peAce

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 11:25 | 3166163 The Final Countdown
The Final Countdown's picture

Goes to show the nifty things you can do with graphs if you scale, stretch and shift them properly. Anything is possible!

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 11:35 | 3166214 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Let me guess...you bought above $700 and you just know it's going to come back.

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 11:47 | 3166262 The Final Countdown
The Final Countdown's picture

Not really, though I wouldn't mind betting that before you know it, AAPL will be back above $600 after earnings.

Fascinating how negative sentiment towards AAPL is so strong among ZeroHedgers that they suddenly fail to recognize the ridiculously obvious manipulation going on with this particular stock. 

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 11:53 | 3166294 Ying-Yang
Ying-Yang's picture

Then you say BUY BUY BUY

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 12:04 | 3166327 The Final Countdown
The Final Countdown's picture

I have no personal interest in AAPL stock, just stating my observations. Somehow it appears to be hard for some to separate the two things when AAPL is involved. 

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 12:00 | 3166313 I am a Man I am...
I am a Man I am Forty's picture

I bought at $510 and backed up the truck at $486 (already own in the low 2's).  ZH thinks it's going to $300 according to this, Apple will have $300B in cash before it gets to a stock price of $300.

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