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"Detonating The Japanese Debt Time Bomb" With Kyle Bass

Tyler Durden's picture





 

The hyper-correlation of Japanese stocks and the JPY have led many to believe that Abe's miracle promise will be just the ticket to bring the nation's two-decade slump to an end - a 2% inflation target is all you need. However, in a brief CNBC interview, Kyle Bass explains that not only are 99.9% of people wrong about the crisis (explaining the critical aspect of the abrupt turn of twenty years of the 'procylicality of thought' - that deflation is the norm), but Abe's actions have actually brought forward the date of the "detonation of Japan's Debt Time Bomb.

It is the Japanese institutions that own JGBs and they own them at meager rates of interest simply because of the ingrained belief in deflation; when the government begins to target 2% inflation, the swing in forward expectations (he notes to monitor inflation swap breakevens) will be the trigger for Japan's implosion. Bass warns that "Japanese debt is around 24x central government tax revenue and when you sail into the zone of insolvency, nothing you can do will help," though he realizes that calling the end of the 70-year debt super-cyle to a specific date is naive, he does expect the 'bomb' to explode within 18 month to two years.

All of the components for this [bomb] to go off 'all of a sudden' are in place. The clock has started on the qualitative shift in participants' minds that the situation is untenable as the realization that Japan spends 25% of revenue on interest now - and with higher rates (via this supposed inflation) the entire situation becomes farcical as every 1% rise in their cost of capital (or rates) costs them another 25% of revenue!.

 

On JPY devaluation - The signs are already there that elites are exiting the JPY - with recent M&A transactions - he warns. 20% of exports go to China; this could be halved given the tensions, and a JPY devaluation is not going to restore the competitiveness of that secular decline.

On Japanese stocks - The people buying Japanese stocks, are picking up dimes in front of a bulldozer.

Bass goes on to discuss the US Housing stabilization, European stress, and China's economic opacity.

 

 


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Fri, 01/18/2013 - 20:45 | Link to Comment brak
brak's picture

I beleive the correct term for Abe's plan is financial seppuku

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 20:46 | Link to Comment fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

he is long housing IMO because he feels the US is further down the road from what Japan and europe is dwaling with now. I wonder if Bass suffers from the same "optomism bias" he seems to point out in others. 

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 20:50 | Link to Comment surf0766
surf0766's picture

That is what I do not understand with the housing pic.. Is he just picking the most polished turd in the pile? Are we now giving obama phones, and houses to the ebt class?

 

 

 

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 20:57 | Link to Comment fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Bass is like a Schiff/Gross combo. like BG he is buying mortgages and frontrunning the fed and like schiff he said it won't be treasuries that blow sky high it will be the currency. funny how the cnbs guys and their Germany gold conspiracy steered clear of asking Bass about how he had UT take delivery a few years ago. 

Bass just makes me wonder...he seems to think the US has a ways to go before our Greece/Japan moment. that scares the shit out of me.

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 21:02 | Link to Comment Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

I can't speak for the rest of the country, but I can tell you what's going on around here. House prices continue to deflate and financing is getting even harder. My wife is in real estate and according to her if its not FHA it's not getting done. She manages the operating system that tracks all the houses coming on the market and those that sit vacant and she tells me that the number on the market continues to grow, and they are sitting longer.

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 21:09 | Link to Comment WmMcK
WmMcK's picture

... if its not FHA it's not getting done ...

She doesn't do any (0% down) VA?  What, too much paper work?

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 21:12 | Link to Comment Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

She doesn't do the paper work that's up to the bankers. She is stating what's closing and what's not. Maybe there aren't a lot of VA loans applied for around here.

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 21:35 | Link to Comment WmMcK
WmMcK's picture

Sorry, as a vet, I overreacted on that one.

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 21:41 | Link to Comment Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

No problem, and thanks. I've been known to do that once or ten times myself.

Sat, 01/19/2013 - 12:13 | Link to Comment in4mayshun
in4mayshun's picture

Same in my area, FHA or cash and only in the $100,000-200,000 area. Anything higher is not selling. The cash buyers are moving out of .17% CD's and hoping they can turn some positive cash flow from renters But guess what a renter has to have to make this work?

1st correct answer gets a gold (tungsten filled) star!

Sat, 01/19/2013 - 15:50 | Link to Comment Cathartes Aura
Cathartes Aura's picture

pile in the whole family, 3 generations to a house, and get Section 8 to fund the land-lording.

seems like a plan for some. . .

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 21:32 | Link to Comment bigrooster
bigrooster's picture

That is why Kyle is long PMI companies.  He knows that almost all homes being sold have it because it is required for a FHA loan.

Sat, 01/19/2013 - 00:32 | Link to Comment wisefool
wisefool's picture

The Mandy component is from 7:23-7:33.

Sat, 01/19/2013 - 00:22 | Link to Comment kareninca
kareninca's picture

What part of the country are you in, Dr. Engali?

I watch house prices in Connecticut and Rhode Island.  They keep going down, and I really see no demographic or economic reason why they shouldn't keep going down.

Sat, 01/19/2013 - 01:03 | Link to Comment Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

I'm in Indiana. Close to the Ohio border.

Sat, 01/19/2013 - 08:39 | Link to Comment azzhatter
azzhatter's picture

Doc, you get props even for where you live!

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 23:19 | Link to Comment surf0766
surf0766's picture

@fonz , that long way to go scares the crap out of me too.  It is almost a weekly event where someone is getting let go at work. Contacts being lost or not renewed.

Sales down revenue down.

 

Peace!

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 23:29 | Link to Comment fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

what scares me more is enslave's example of the one guy with the checkbook that buys everything posted above. that is pure evil and i can believe it is happening. somehow i hope people come together and punch the bully in the face.

Sat, 01/19/2013 - 01:37 | Link to Comment secret_sam
secret_sam's picture

That bully guy has been securitized and cut up into tranches.  The tranches can be viewed through 'Merkin demographics.

Sat, 01/19/2013 - 05:37 | Link to Comment tradewithdave
tradewithdave's picture

Coming together and punching the bully in the face (even cyber-punching) would be considering "bullying" and "bullying" is being outlawed and with it free speech. 

Sat, 01/19/2013 - 00:36 | Link to Comment Mike in GA
Mike in GA's picture

But look at the dollar.  Still high, relatively speaking.  Not only no collapse but any little squiggle in Euroland or Japan and the dollar leaps skyward. 

My understanding of Kyle's thesis is the dollar will be the last domino to fall. 

Japan's debt svc is 25% of their revenue, ours about 10%. 

Sat, 01/19/2013 - 03:29 | Link to Comment cranky-old-geezer
cranky-old-geezer's picture

 

 

But look at the dollar.  Still high, relatively speaking.

Yes, relative to other sinking currencies.

But USD has lost 50% of it's value in the last 5 yrs.  From 97% total loss to 98.5% total loss.

You don't see it next to other currencies losing similar purchasing power.

But you clearly see it next to gold, silver, bread, eggs, gas, etc, that can't be printed on a press.

 

Sat, 01/19/2013 - 18:13 | Link to Comment Seer
Seer's picture

Japan's situation is slightly different in that it's population isn't dead broke.  Govt might be, but the population can/could cover.  For the US it's PUBLIC and PRIVATE sectors that are broke, no real way to clear the debt.  Granted, in the long-run Japan is more fucked because it's an island nation that is highly dependent on energy imports (the US has energy, though it would, at current consumption rates, burn through it- Japan's conservation option looks more like "doing without").

Sat, 01/19/2013 - 06:06 | Link to Comment jmcadg
jmcadg's picture

Bass was right to take UT delivery, but dead wrong to keep it stored with HSBC .... aaaaaaaannnnnnndddddd it's gone.

Sat, 01/19/2013 - 18:15 | Link to Comment Seer
Seer's picture

Stored with HSBC, really?  If that's the case- WOW!  But then again, where would one store gobs of gold? (an international bank could, in theory, protect against any particular govt seizure, though it would pretty much kill its operations in that govt's country).

Sat, 01/19/2013 - 00:19 | Link to Comment cranky-old-geezer
cranky-old-geezer's picture

 

 

The real housing situation doesn't matter.  Housing debt securites (MBS) is what matters, and Fed will keep buying 'em to keep their price up, regardless of what happens in the real housing market.

The gap between the fantasy paper world and the real physical world is getting wider, and MBS are a perfect example of it.

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 20:50 | Link to Comment Blues Traveler
Blues Traveler's picture

Kyle's short performance swings significanlty from month to month but overall the average has been a negative carry trade.  Carry trade's cost increase when the trade turns negative, the more negative, more the cost.  The carry cost explodes when the position is 10 x leverage.  The trade is in trouble, so he is forced to play poker, he needs something to happen soon bc the carry and the roll over is kicking his ass.

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 20:49 | Link to Comment Blues Traveler
Blues Traveler's picture

Kyle's short performance swings significanlty from month to month but overall the average has been a negative carry trade.  Carry trade's cost increase when the trade turns negative, the more negative, more the cost.  The carry cost explodes when the position is 10 x leverage.  The trade is in trouble, so he is forced to play poker, he needs something to happen soon bc the carry and the roll over is kicking his ass.

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 21:05 | Link to Comment WhiteNight123129
WhiteNight123129's picture

Good points, but here is the solution.

Short Japanese bonds and Long Japan Tobacco, tobacco shares will increase dividend even in deflation, and if you have hyperinflation tobacco sharex will trounce bonds. You have positive carry while waiting and now currency risk.

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 20:51 | Link to Comment WhiteNight123129
WhiteNight123129's picture

Now if the local institutions have redemptions and the Japanese spend the proceeds on goods and services how much do the nominal tax revenues rise?

 

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 20:56 | Link to Comment kliguy38
kliguy38's picture

Boom......

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 21:22 | Link to Comment bigrooster
bigrooster's picture

Always the smartest guy in the room!

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 21:24 | Link to Comment XitSam
XitSam's picture

Did someone say debt bomb?

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 21:26 | Link to Comment Miss Expectations
Miss Expectations's picture

The priest collar kind of suits him.

 

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 21:35 | Link to Comment ZeroAvatar
ZeroAvatar's picture

Doug Short shows with charts how the current cycle is 48% above trend line:

 

http://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/Secular-Bull-and-Bear-...

 

Not only is the S&P going to lose the 48% (back to trendline), it will then proceed to wring out the excesses of all this printing.

 

I've decided, that, if I still had possession of that silver before the tragic accident, If spot gets up to $38, I would unload.  It would have been nicely in the money.  I'm certain the hammer is about to fall.  When it does, silver goes down with everything else, and it's ALL GOING DOWN HARD. 

 

Since I'm now broke due to the accident, maybe I can scrape up a few bucks from relatives to buy in around $20.  That's my story and I'm stickin' to it.

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 21:43 | Link to Comment fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

U drop the market 48% and we are in a depression that even CNBS can't deny. The rest of the world sees blood in the water and dumps their dollars on our broke ass heads and buys PM's on sale for a very short time because if si;ver eagles are out of stock, good luck finding them then. After that it is blast off time for PM's as the reserve currency kisses it's ass goodbye.

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 21:44 | Link to Comment CPL
CPL's picture

Shortages effecting electronics markets would beg to differ, but to each their own I suppose.

 

I get my price for silver or you don't get a gadget, that's fair.

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 21:51 | Link to Comment ZeroAvatar
ZeroAvatar's picture

I know you'll think I'm full of it, but I sold my Phys Silver holdings in 2011 just before the blow off.  I started selling at 42.50, got that and 44, 46, at which point I was out.  I even had to call the cops on my 'broker' because he wouldn't return 3 10oz bars. 

 

I've been patting myself on the back ever since. Right now, I'm getting those same feelings.  Sure, I'd LOVE to hold to $150, and I Sure do believe it will make it there, but I got a bad feeling about this upcoming crash and I'm not gonna get left holding the bag like a lotta people did in May 2011.

Take ANY profits NOW, live to play another day.  We are close. We'll be LUCKY (IMHO) if we reach $38-40 before crash.

 

Edit: (Crash 1st, Then $150)

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 22:25 | Link to Comment WmMcK
WmMcK's picture

"I started selling at 42.50, got that and 44, 46, at which point I was out."

I started trading for Au and Pt at ~44, for more at 46, at which point I was re-balanced.

Back to Ag at ~ 28.50 (GSR ~57).
And just caught Pt to Ag at ~ 53,
but my timing may be a little off again.

Damned if I'm getting caught holding mostly FRN's, though.

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 22:45 | Link to Comment CPL
CPL's picture

I would like to add to the pile, but there is no supply to justify the severe drop so I believe anything offered will be as legitimate as a 18 dollar bill in terms of cash value.

 

The attempt has been made repeatedly to shake the branch of weak hands holding physical silver.  Any minor price variation and the news chants sell to deaf ears.  The fact is now the world really needs silver if it wishes to carry on with the self destructive idea of fifty gadgets in every home and six for every child.  Eventually someone will understand all those drones that are on preorder can never be built with the lack of silver in the sauder.

It makes a huge difference which sauder is used.  

Tin Sauder = 1 dollar RC toy that might react to standing right next to the toy and gunning the trigger.

Silver sauder = 5000 dollar serious amateur RC fanatic that do miles of POV flying with control decks that cost as much as a good used car.

 

Quality counts for everything in electronics.  Get cheap, expect results out of scope of the original design.

This should explain the difference in quality to allow everyone a better picture of a silver shortage.  

http://store.curiousinventor.com/guides/how_to_solder/kind_of_solder/

Sat, 01/19/2013 - 00:48 | Link to Comment bilbert
bilbert's picture

Ummm...............  by "sauder", do you mean "solder"?

I've never heard that term.

 

Sat, 01/19/2013 - 09:22 | Link to Comment CPL
CPL's picture

Voice recognition and silver lined modern technology showcases on one of the aforementioned fifty gadgets.  Corrected my dictionary.   Solder.  solder.  SOLDER.  sauder...crap dragon dictate, never change.  Awesome.

Sat, 01/19/2013 - 00:40 | Link to Comment Mike in GA
Mike in GA's picture

I think I musta bought some of your silver Zero. :( 

I thought it was the 'blast-off'.

Sat, 01/19/2013 - 12:15 | Link to Comment A Humble Man
A Humble Man's picture

In a way I would be happy to see another silver crash.  I would cash out some of my stocks and buy more physical with my pieces of paper.

Sat, 01/19/2013 - 18:19 | Link to Comment Seer
Seer's picture

PMs never seem to go to zero.  Fiat, well...

The age old adage for investing is to never hold all your eggs in one basket.

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 21:50 | Link to Comment Aurora Ex Machina
Aurora Ex Machina's picture

Hmm. Lessons from a small Island: if you want to be a global player, have a big Navy. [See further - Korean invasion of Japan].

Comments:

#1 Japan <> China aggro over that small island cannot be based on anything but American pressure; they don't have the muscle to back it up (Durrr: what are the German and Japanese economies based on, if not small militaries)

#2 If you're a small Island (in the middle of an ocean), look to energy self-sufficiency - well, we all known what's happened in the last few years. Add into that food security etc.

#3 Population shifts + Sociological Stasis = break point. 35% of herbivore men? Good luck with that.

#4 Never be on the BG list. Japan is really not on the breeding / acceptable list, and expect it to crash. Quote: "They treat their women terribly, why should we save it [their society, for reference]?" If you want to correlate successful societies with gender roles, we can do that. But.. I wouldn't put my money on the Salafists either. Not anymore, anyhow, and I endorse that. Full moon rising, hmm?

#5 Bass is spot on, but for the wrong reasons: Japan has been allowed to wind down nicely; the last remaining vestiges of Bushido might crash it sooner, but otherwise it's done. Japan has a calm centre, and will adjust to the new normal of pastoral living easily. Trust me on that.

 

#6 iSmartGlass - that was news about 6 months ago... derp.

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 22:55 | Link to Comment CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

 

Pretty much all of this analysis fails to start and end at the correct point, which is oil.

A Japan currency smash results in instant starvation.  They Have No Oil.  If their currency is shit, no one will sell it to them, and they starve.

This plays out everywhere.  If you have oil, you're not going to sell it to ppl who want to pay with smashed currency.  Hell, a lot of oil exporters are ramping up their domestic consumption so rapidly that they'll have a credible excuse not to sell.

Forget the BS about US energy independence.  It's silly.  We import 12 million barrels every time the sun rises in the east.  If that stopped, so would eating.  If our currency smashes, your gold doesn't make you king.  Everyone starves.  Starvation is an equal opportunity killer.  Your gold does nothing for you if trucks can't bring food to shelves.

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 23:01 | Link to Comment akak
akak's picture

Nonsense.

Did the Argentinians all starve when their currency collapsed in 2001-2002?  

Did the Zimbabweans all starve when their currency TOTALLY collapsed in 2008-2009?

Did the Russians all starve when the ruble collapsed in the 1990s?

Did any Latin Americans starve when their currencies collapsed (Brazil's FOUR times!) in the 1970s, 1980s or 1990s?

Yes, there was a LOT of pain and suffering during each of those currency collapses, but society survived and moved on.  To equate the end of a monetary regime to Armageddon is pure bankster fearmongering propaganda, and it is both historically ignorant and intellectually insulting.

 

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 23:10 | Link to Comment Aurora Ex Machina
Aurora Ex Machina's picture

Very good point. Although, yes, some people did starve.

I'm guessing your basic point that is that if the Global Petro-Dollar crashes, you'll get localised-level currency conversions happening fairly quickly, even if they are created at the local level while chaos reigns?

 

Can't say I can argue with that - life goes on, muddle, inefficient and open to corruption? Sure. But you're 100% correct: life will go on. Complexity is merely arrangement, after all.

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 23:15 | Link to Comment akak
akak's picture

I tend to agree with you here Aurora.

Make no mistake, though --- the collapse of the world fiat monetary regime will undoubtedly be very painful and very brutal, most likely worse than any of the individual national currency collapses that preceeded it.  Life will be VERY different for most of us afterward.  But at the same time, I think many tend to underestimate human ingenuity in the face of crisis and practical necessity, especially in these dark times when overwhelming pessimism is so easy to fall into.

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 23:30 | Link to Comment Aurora Ex Machina
Aurora Ex Machina's picture

Well, I've three things to say:

#1 Spanish Revolution did actually work - let no-one lie to you about that [as for the Communists; we no longer have a great Stalin-in-the-sky to direct being a bastard]

#2 Although many are weak and feeble, the underlying empathy and connectivity of the 1.5's and all of the 2.0s is not to be under-estimated. The race survived through a larger bottle-neck over 12,000 years ago, you'd be surprised about how co-operative people will be when there's nothing else but them.

#3 I would prefer, to be honest, the Ascension way; however, if it comes to the fragmented futureTM please don't worry. Provisions have been made.

 

 

It's still beautiful out there, despite the damage. Moon will always mirror the sun, eh?

Sat, 01/19/2013 - 01:19 | Link to Comment CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

You just don't understand.

Argentina in the early 2000s Had Its Own Oil.

Brazil ditto.

Russia is the largest oil producer in the world.  None of them had to buy oil.

Zimbabwe eats local food.

 

Japan and the US don't.  Our Food Is Shipped.  Thousands of miles.  It won't be if oil can't be bought.

Frankly, monetary this and that is not the mechanism of Armageddon because money (and gold) has value only in your head.  The value is a human invention.

Oil's joules predate all that silliness by millions of years.   Oil scarcity is what will take it all down, but regardless of that, you need to sit down and figure out where food comes from.  It's not coming to NYC grocery store shelves from farms.

It's coming from trucks, and they run on oil.  If Japan can't buy any, people will starve.

Sat, 01/19/2013 - 10:35 | Link to Comment Calmyourself
Calmyourself's picture

CIO is right here.  Japan is a very different country in terms of density and its farming /food procurement strategies.  Japan will in large measure starve without oil, however Japan has gold, technology, and nukes it will get oil it will be very messy however.

Sat, 01/19/2013 - 20:53 | Link to Comment Aurora Ex Machina
Aurora Ex Machina's picture

Late response, but yes: You're spot on, and yes, I do understand.

 

Look over the #6 points, and tell me again how Japan survives?

Sat, 01/19/2013 - 18:27 | Link to Comment Seer
Seer's picture

While there may not be an instant mass starvation (but then again no one can say for certain that there couldn't be) all points lead to a less bright future.

All of these countries that you noted obtained outside assistance.  I don't believe that this can be counted on in the future, not if/when the US dives hard: or even if it doesn't- it doesn't have any money with which to assist!

Japan stay afloat because it still has exports going on.  At some point, as energy costs increase, those exports are going to experience ever-increasing downward pressures on margins.  It's a vicious circle.  One has to fully get the point I've been making for quite some time about "economies of scale in reverse" to understand how things can unravel quite quickly.

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 23:04 | Link to Comment Aurora Ex Machina
Aurora Ex Machina's picture

#2 specifically mentions "energy independence".

At what point does that "fails to start and end at the correct point, which is oil"?

 

No, really, I'm interested how you dived in there with that dismissal, if you'd not read the entire #6 point plan.

Sat, 01/19/2013 - 01:27 | Link to Comment CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

Nod.  Did, but not focused in that "all of the analysis" wasn't pointed only at you.  You just happened to have an attention getting reply button.  I was pointing mostly at all above your comment.

But with that as preface, there is merit in noting that there is entirely too much intellectual translation of "oil" into "energy".

There is no energy problem.  There is an oil problem.  Energy doesn't translate to oil.  Only oil fuels bulk transport, and only bulk transport feeds the world.  Only oil fuels commercial tractors and combines to get 50,000 acres planted before planting season expires.  Not energy.  Oil.

It's very dangerous to lump them together.  The nuclear plants shut down and electricity shuts off.  That doesn't starve people.  Stopping the trucks does.

Sat, 01/19/2013 - 01:58 | Link to Comment r3phl0x
r3phl0x's picture

We could build electric trucks and electric farming equipment and electric trains and run em off the nooks, or natural gas, or whatever.

But I doubt it'll happen in time.

Sat, 01/19/2013 - 03:16 | Link to Comment CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

 

Since you concluded the right result, we needn't go into this in too much detail, but in general NO, we can't build electric trucks or electric farming equipment, and nat gas stuff you see on the roads have very short ranges.

There are 745 watts per horsepower and the engines required to get that 50,000 acre field planted before planting season expires requires 400 horsepower.  298,000 watts.  

The N word.  Never.  That's never going to happen, and you may feel more comfortable concluding that because there is no time rather than physics precludes.

Sat, 01/19/2013 - 15:26 | Link to Comment Lost Word
Lost Word's picture

If there is shortage of oil, supply and demand will allocate it to the most important place, and perhaps that will be to farms and food trucks. If the farm or local business has a natural gas supply pipe to their home or business, long range miles per gallon would not be a problem for local operations after conversion to natural gas engine systems. Nuke plants have combustion engine emerency electric generators that run on diesel, but they could be converted to natural gas. Many local buses and trucks now run on natural gas, or propane. There are nationwide natural gas networks, and local natural gas fueling stations could be built quickly for long distance travel. Many small vehicles are now flex-fuel, could run on 100 percent methanol or ethanol. Natural gas can be converted to methanol. Natural gas can be converted to fuel oil. Germany and South Africa survived on synthetic oil made from coal. USA could also in the long term. Just more time and money and work. Electric trucks only for short distance local travel, obviously.

Sat, 01/19/2013 - 18:35 | Link to Comment Seer
Seer's picture

As someone with a tractor I'm just NOT seeing an electric tractor as being viable.  Maybe I'm just not imaginative enough...

All I can say is that up until the time I got a tractor I had no real understanding of just how important diesel engines were.

For sure, there are/can be "alternatives," just not "replacements."

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 21:42 | Link to Comment palmereldritch
palmereldritch's picture

Picking up a dime in front of a bulldozer?...How about a nickel?... forget it....

More like, Gargling Fukushima containment water and thinking it's Dom Pérignon

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 22:13 | Link to Comment WmMcK
WmMcK's picture

Bass is long nickels.
"A nickel isn't worth a dime today" - L. Berra

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 23:27 | Link to Comment secret_sam
secret_sam's picture

    "A nickel isn't worth a dime today"

It should be soon, though.

Sat, 01/19/2013 - 09:14 | Link to Comment BidnessMan
BidnessMan's picture

Nickel is about $8 a pound, so Kyle is still in the money on the 20 million nickels he took delivery on. A little more inflation and his nickels will be worth a dime.

Sat, 01/19/2013 - 18:37 | Link to Comment Seer
Seer's picture

Just in time for when a dime is worth a nickel!  My head's starting to hurt!

I'll leave all this money-changer stuff to the pros and concentrate on land and farming...

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 21:44 | Link to Comment PUD
PUD's picture

if (when) japan implodes, I find it hard to believe that us housing will be some safe haven. japan is the 3d largest economy on the planet...it isn't greece

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 22:50 | Link to Comment Aurora Ex Machina
Aurora Ex Machina's picture

Based on what, exactly?

Break the areas down, please. (And then look at Korean and Chinese competition in each area, and where the factories are).

 

"It isn't Greece":

Exports Stagnant since 2008

Imports Up since 2008

That's a 1k billion deficit, baka.

I don't think I need to reference JPY rates, do I?

 

Sony committed sepukku a long time ago.

 

What you're really bothered about is the $0.9 trillion in bonds and what it could do to the USA.

 

 

Muppet.

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 22:00 | Link to Comment unrulian
unrulian's picture

+1

Sat, 01/19/2013 - 18:38 | Link to Comment Seer
Seer's picture

-1

Just wanting to provide some balance...

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 21:45 | Link to Comment NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

Forgot to add in that Japan's trade deficit is also worsening due to the increased importation of oil.  Since that whole Fukushima thing didn't turn out so well.

Last I checked WTI crossed $95/bbl today.  And they ain't getting our cheap WTI- they're buying more expensive stuff.

I think Japan is in for a world of hurt.  Which will serve as a preview of what's coming here later.

Me?  I'm starting a Payday Lending business.

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 21:46 | Link to Comment XtraBullish
XtraBullish's picture

Kyle, whether a fag or not, is definitely a really smart guy and if my Yen short continues to make me a fortune, I'll gladly blow him in front of my wife, kids, and parents. Read "Boomerang" by Michael Lewis and you will see why Kyle Bass rocks.

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 21:55 | Link to Comment Aurora Ex Machina
Aurora Ex Machina's picture

Is being gay really that shocking to you? How do you mix Libertarian ethics of "nice atmosphere you've got here; don't fuck with me, I don't fuck with you" with that?

 

Welcome to the 21st Century.

 

[Edit - damn, there's either a ZH bot, or a damn fast trigger junker out there. Live for 10 seconds, refresh, junk. Aggressive algo there, I approve ;) ]

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 22:03 | Link to Comment unrulian
unrulian's picture

i'll definately never read boomerang but i had to up you for the blow comment...i actually lol'd for possibly the first time ever

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 21:52 | Link to Comment XtraBullish
XtraBullish's picture

Doug Short is full of really bad shit. Wrong on all fronts.

 

NEVER NEVER NEVER underestimate the replacement power of stocks within an inflationary spiral.

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 22:17 | Link to Comment ZeroAvatar
ZeroAvatar's picture

I've seen that same trendline chart elsewhere.  Doug didn't invent it.  This is not the rally you are looking for.

http://home.earthlink.net/~intelligentbear/com-dj-infl.htm

  By the way, (is that you, KD?) (I didn't red arrow you)

 

Later:  I read somewhere today Japanese gas prices really starting to inflate.  Makes sense, lot's more oil needed there now, price goes up.

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 22:01 | Link to Comment Bunga Bunga
Bunga Bunga's picture

at 103% debt the outcome of inflation is always a hidden government default. good luck.

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 21:58 | Link to Comment stant
stant's picture

ah so we do get to burn washington this time

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 22:06 | Link to Comment edb5s
edb5s's picture

What a fucking analogy:  "The Fed is the great enabler of congressional spending...and the Republicans and Democrats have 100-foot putts with 40 feet of break and 30 MPH wind and they keep looking at each other saying 'good, good,' we'll just move on to the next hole." 

 

 

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 22:22 | Link to Comment Chuck Walla
Chuck Walla's picture

Hiroshima will look like a scout campout.

FORWARD SOVIET!

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 22:25 | Link to Comment Yes_Questions
Yes_Questions's picture

 

 

Father Bass, please forgive me for all my sins.\

Said young Faber.

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 22:35 | Link to Comment Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

If we just kick start anothel currency carry tlade ploglam, everything will be hookie dookie. Ha ha ha ha!

 

Measuring Carry Trade Activity -2010

While technology has made trading cheaper, investors fear the system is too complex to manage

 

Rage Against The Machine - Killing In The Name – 1993

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 22:56 | Link to Comment earleflorida
earleflorida's picture

brief quoted [sic] excerpts from the 1970's, to the "Great Moderation [volcker shock]":

' "But the 'stagflationary' conditions of the 1970's did not prove any more permanent than the Depression conditions of the 1930's or the postwar prosperity of the 1950's and 1960's had been. Indeed, the very fact that during the 1970's the capitalists could not make profits in terms of gold meant that the stagflationary conditions of that decade could not possibly have continued for much longer than it did. In fact, these conditions were brought to an abrupt end by the Volcker Shock of 1979-80, giving way to a new and very different period, commonly referred to as the "Great Moderation." '

' "I believe that it can be safely stated that a 1970's-style stagflation lasting much longer than a decade is economically impossible." '

' "The level of Gold production during the 1970's" '...

' "Therefore, already in the wake of the crisis 1974-75, prices in terms of gold were considerably lower than they had been in 1970. If you look at the trend line in world gold production, you notice that after declining for about five years in the first half of the 1970's gold production bottomed out, though it remained depressed compared to the peak of 1970." '

' "However, the decline in gold prices brought about by the 1974-75 was not enough to turn gold production decisively upward. This took a new crisies within the crisis, which erupted beginning in 1979. This too brought a surge of paper money prices and a sharp deflation in terms of gold prices.' "

' "The result was that the profitability of the world gold mining and refining industry, both relative to other industries and absolutely, soared. The gold industry was the great exception to the lack of profitability of capitalist production during the 1970's. Not surprisingly, beginning with the 1979-82 crisis gold production began a prolonged upward movement that was to continue until the turn of the 21st century." '   

' "For example, in March 1968, at the beginning of the protracted crisis that extended through the decade of the 1970's into the 1980's, the yield on 10-year government bonds was about 5.57 percent. In January 1983 at the end of the prolonged crisis, the rate of interest on 10-year bonds was hovering around 10.5 percent! It wasn't until August 1993 before the yield on the 10-year government bonds finally fell below the levels that had prevailed in March 1968, more than a quarter of a century before." '

end excerpted quotes from 'Kubrick ... a theme of 'Critique Theory' 

Ps. very interesting, but many a gap not fully exploited, imho

Ps2. In the end, we blossomed [saved by the fledgling EU?] and Japan faltered??? Perplexing...

thankyou Tyler

Sat, 01/19/2013 - 17:46 | Link to Comment earleflorida
earleflorida's picture

supplement I: "The Rise and Fall of the Japanese Miracle"    ref__ http://www.mises.org/daily/298

supplement II: "The Japanese Stock Market"  [1950 - 2013] plug-in/ update

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/japan/stock-market 

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 22:46 | Link to Comment joego1
joego1's picture

The Japanese are assembling their nukes. it is time for an honorable war.

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 22:58 | Link to Comment palmereldritch
palmereldritch's picture

I believe those nukes were already inflicted seppuku-style on 3/11....

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 22:54 | Link to Comment THE DORK OF CORK
THE DORK OF CORK's picture

I have to say I don't like this dickhead............

 

Every so often Zero hedge falls in man love with some guy.............thinking he is a tough guy or something.

 

These guys are a nothing.

They have tiny little balls , but like strutting their stuff.

 

In contrast you have the real dangerous men ...............

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=74_pFXwRgCE

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 23:02 | Link to Comment fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Bass comes off as smug. So does Schiff. They have run the math and see the end point and don't let bullshit get in the way. They are also in the business of managing assets. So they will talk their book as close to what they really believe as possible, and have a better plan B than any of us has plan A if what they believe ever comes true.

Sat, 01/19/2013 - 12:29 | Link to Comment blindman
blindman's picture

bingo, money system.
aka joker and sincere little eichmann,
good nazi true believer syndrome on
mood altering or enhancing medication,
never mind alcohol, entertainment or
drug induced insanity; we are talking
belief systems here. contradiction and
absurd hypocrisy be damned
but i wouldn't call him a dickhead.

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 22:58 | Link to Comment americanspirit
americanspirit's picture

The only problem with KB's analysis is that it is premised on the housing market remaining essentially the same. He is betting that the basic model won't change. But if you look around the world there are alternative housing market models that are working and that don't support Kyle's model. Take a look at the Danish co-housing model - which is being implemented in the US BTW. If you want to argue that the vast majority of US people are sheeple who will never embrace an alternative model, which takes brains and initiative to understand and implement, I won't argue with you but at the same time I think that as brilliant as KB is he is vulnerable to the classic error - thinking that what has always been. always will be.

Sat, 01/19/2013 - 00:10 | Link to Comment pain_and_soros
pain_and_soros's picture

Don't see that as his Japan case uses the Japanese "thinking that what has always been. always will be" as the reason most of the Japanese don't see the debt bomb/inflation problem lurking after 20 years of deflation...

I don't agree with his views on US housing - unless he thinks the Japanese will use their considerable US debt holdings to buy US real estate (maybe a hedge against radioactivity? lol) - I think the only "safe" asset for countries & individuals is physical gold bullion

Sat, 01/19/2013 - 16:41 | Link to Comment Cathartes Aura
Cathartes Aura's picture

bingo.

there are alternatives to "americanism" and they're all around you/us - but if you don't open your eyes/mind, you'll never see them.

co-housing, particularly multi-generational, is a microcosm of a successful community/society, learning to work together - there are communities in all parts of amrka, with many different flavours, from "religious" to "anarchist" - and everything in between.  and of course, the same exists throughout the world, outside of imaginary lines drawn to serve taxations. . .

not every single mother is a "welfare queen" - so many share housing/bills/childminding, and some even do it with men around, also contributing to the caretaking of home/family - but in larger group'd situations, not the outdated nuke-y'lar model culturally enForced, that's sooo last century consumerism nonsense.  divide (into consumer-able portions), and rule.

and there are nomads, and folks who don't want extended families but can exist on periphery, still contributing and being a part of, just apart.

of course, you'll not be reading about that here, and that's cool - but just because you don't discuss these things amongst the simple banter, don't pretend they don't exist.

and thrive.

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 22:58 | Link to Comment bugs_
bugs_'s picture

lets drop the big one and see what happens

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 23:13 | Link to Comment steve from virginia
steve from virginia's picture

 

 

Peeps still don't get it! We are in the middle of an energy crisis not a monetary crisis. Nothing the central banks can do will effect the outcomes that are now set in concrete. In a year or two there will be permanent petroleum shortages b/c the customers -- those simple fools who buy petroleum -- cannot afford to extract the high-cost crudes. The fools are tapped out.

 

Bass assumes deflation can be overcome with more credit as if the Japanese haven't been trying to overcome deflation with more credit ... for the past 20 years.

 

The only difference between 2012-13 and previous years is Japan's trade deficit: Japan cannot arbitrage between the fuel it imports vs. the fuel in exports in the form of automobiles.

 

The worldwide death of the auto industry includes the Japanese version: $110 crude is about $90 too pricey for the world's auto owners. Guess what? The $20 was burned up for nothing a long time ago. It's $110 crude ... or $120 crude!

 

Chew on that motherfuckers!

 

Guess what 2.0? Bass' real estate call is a fool's game: US real estate is an auto industry dependency. $110 crude is about $90 too pricey for US suburban real estate, bankers, home builders, REITs, box-retailers, insurance companies, mortgage originators, service companies, etc. Increase consumption somehow and those fuel costs increase.

 

The BOJ attempts nominal GDP (NGDP) targeting which is unsecured lending in place of the private sector offering unsecured lending: the BOJ is just another big, insolvent Japanese bank! No wonder there is flight out of the yen, there is no effective lender of last resort in Japan!

 

Look for capital flight to accelerate until the BOJ reverses direction (quietly when no one is paying attention ...)

 

Next stupid monetary idea that will not effect our ongoing energy crisis: Modern Monetary Theory (or platinum coins).

 

Good grief!

 

 

Sat, 01/19/2013 - 00:27 | Link to Comment ILikeBoats
ILikeBoats's picture

So extend the thought ... those places in USA that are urban but safe - are they the place to buy?  What about (going farther afield) European areas where you can live without needing a car?  Maybe even Russia or Ukraine, places where the metro systems and dealing with scarcity by people has already been raised to an art form?

Knowing what is going wrong is important - but knowing who is going to win is even more important?

Sat, 01/19/2013 - 10:23 | Link to Comment andrewp111
andrewp111's picture

Japan can go totally to nuclear power, despite the risks. In the end, they have no choice.  Maybe they will make a big push into Thorium and have a big revival boom!

Sat, 01/19/2013 - 14:31 | Link to Comment css1971
css1971's picture

Funny you should say that. Nuclear is at decade lows.

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 23:16 | Link to Comment q99x2
q99x2's picture

He did not say how much farther down the road the US is but it sounded to me like I should be in no rush to go to work. US doesn't seem to need Japan or China. I guess the Japaneser economy goes poof and that means more for the rest of the world. No I think it means Ice-9 enters the system and the lights go out. He apparently doesn't think so. But he does think that relative to all other assets that a basis for preserving wealth in a worldwide collapse will be the US housing market. At least from the money manager point of things. I would not agree that it is the same for an individual. But he did not talk about that.

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 23:18 | Link to Comment Kreditanstalt
Kreditanstalt's picture

CNBC - business news like an NFL telecast...sickening...

Sat, 01/19/2013 - 16:45 | Link to Comment Cathartes Aura
Cathartes Aura's picture

familiar.

cosy.

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 23:19 | Link to Comment Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

Detonating The Japanese Debt Time Bomb is easy peasy now a days.

 

Any [echoes in big government puppeteer president voice talking on TeeVee] fuck knob who goes against the grain will find themselves zapped by our new drone fleet. 

Boeing's Advanced EMP Missile

 

Hmmmm, what happens when EMP’s are deployed into the air? I’m completely riddled mate.

Sat, 01/19/2013 - 15:48 | Link to Comment Lost Word
Lost Word's picture

At what range does the EMP cruise missile work? How long before every tech nation has their own EMP cruise missiles? Back to .... Mutual Assured Destruction with EMP zappers. Large geography nations might have some interior regions with advantage against short range EMP cruise missiles. And if a Nuke power was seriously zapped by small EMP cruise missiles, they could retaliate bigger. Arms escalation to War escalation.

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 23:19 | Link to Comment 847328_3527
847328_3527's picture

Debt is cool. Kyle Bass doesn;t understand the New Paradigm. See:

 

http://www.nerdwallet.com/blog/credit-card-data/average-credit-card-debt...

 

Updated January 8th. Average credit card debt stands at a distressing $7,194 - a startling number considering that if you look at only those households that have debt, the average rises to  $15,422. And the American debt profile only gets worse. Here are statistics, trends, studies and methodology behind the average U.S. household debt.

U.S. household consumer debt profile:

  • Average credit card debt: $15,422
  • Average mortgage debt: $149,782
  • Average student loan debt: $34,703

In total, American consumers owe:

  • $11.31 trillion in debt
    • A decrease of 0.7% from last year
  • $858 billion in credit card debt
  • $8.03 trillion in mortgages
  • $956 billion in student loans
    • An increase of 4.6% from last year
Sat, 01/19/2013 - 02:44 | Link to Comment r3phl0x
r3phl0x's picture

And the private debt is just pocket change. The US Federal government's liability per taxpayer is over $1M, counting social security/medicare.

Sat, 01/19/2013 - 09:03 | Link to Comment BidnessMan
BidnessMan's picture

My 95% LTV no PMI 30 year fixed rate mortgage at 4% is going to be pretty sweet as inflation really cranks up. Look forward to paying mine off in toilet paper nominal dollars in a couple of years. In the meantime, tax deductible fixed price rent for the next 30 years. Not worried about my 5% "equity" in case it goes the other way.

All "promises to pay" are going to fail. Entitlements and pensions are completely unsustainable. Anyone counting on a "promise to pay" is very naive. The massive debt can't be repaid, so it won't be. At all levels.

Sat, 01/19/2013 - 09:26 | Link to Comment mogul rider
mogul rider's picture

Great strategy Bidness except for one small thing

 

In a deflationary spiral you are now the roud owner of a cardboard box with bankers tapping on the front flap.

Sun, 01/20/2013 - 14:17 | Link to Comment css1971
css1971's picture

Were you asleep the last 4 years?

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 23:21 | Link to Comment bnbdnb
bnbdnb's picture

US housing is a hedge. He just won't say it.

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 23:24 | Link to Comment blindman
blindman's picture

yea yea yrewaaaa yea, yeaaa yeaardcfrwaaa yaa.
but !
the japanese print to purchase usa treasuries,
thank you berry much for it. good r/luck with
that contamination thing associated with energy
and bomb, nuclear, material production..

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 23:28 | Link to Comment WallowaMountainMan
WallowaMountainMan's picture

so, the next black swan is the crushing of the yen yang into less than the cost of electrons, eh?

so do you think the value of this here little ol' piece o' land i gots up in the wilderness went up or down today? fresh water, wilderness, self suffiecent farming community, some of whom still speak to me...

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 23:53 | Link to Comment Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

What? You say we owe you http://www.usdebtclock.org/? Due to our electronic banking records being destroyed via EMF, you’ll need to speak my attorney…. LOL

 

 

You had $200,000 in three separate banking accounts?

We see you conducted online banking, did you make a hard copy printout of your last monthly account transactions? No?

The process of recovery can take up to 45 days.

Please stay on the line while I connect you to our monetized bank account recovery department.

 

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 23:35 | Link to Comment pain_and_soros
pain_and_soros's picture

When Japan bonds go boom, what happens to all the US debt they hold? 

Their JY will presumably be worthless at that point (via massive, hyperinflationary printing to pay off the debt without technically defaulting), which means the US debt they hold will be (relatively) speaking one of the few significant assets they have that is worth something (at least at that moment).

Do they then sell the US debt to buy hard assets like gold (since they at that point will realize better than most that the same thing that happened to Japanese debt will eventually happen to US debt as well?)

If Japan does sell its major holdings of US debt in response to their own currency/econcomic crisis - who buys it? (other than the Fed?) - & if Japan sells their US debt, will it lead China to do the same, seeing the end game approaching?

seems to me the Yen going to zero will have far & wide reaching consequences for the rest of the developed world...

 

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 23:35 | Link to Comment secret_sam
secret_sam's picture

     When Japan bonds go boom, what happens to all the US debt they hold?

They sell it to the Fed, I'm guessing.  They'll need some money.

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 23:52 | Link to Comment pain_and_soros
pain_and_soros's picture

Agreed, so they sell their US Treasury holdings back to probably the only party that will buy them (US Fed - also the only party big enough to take that supply off Japan's hands without severely disrupting the US treasury market) in exchange for what?  $US cash?  gold? or new $US Treasuries??? lol -

Would the Fed give Japan $US cash (which would likely be used to buy hard assets like gold)?

Japan likely isn't interested in taking new $US debt in return for old, and the Fed likely not too interested in giving Japan liquid cash that will likely be used to buy physical gold...but may be forced to do so to avoid dumping of Treasuries in size on the market...(which will put upward pressure on rates)...

I think this is bullish for gold & not much else....

Sat, 01/19/2013 - 00:19 | Link to Comment secret_sam
secret_sam's picture

When things start to get serious, the power alliances are going to orient around flows of resources, not currencies (or other "resource proxies").  Gold probably isn't going to be as valuable to Japan as oil when it comes right down to it.

I'd say it's all about who is most likely to be providing Japan's energy in the future.  I claim no insight on that.

Sat, 01/19/2013 - 01:17 | Link to Comment pain_and_soros
pain_and_soros's picture

Good point....so whether oil and/or gold, Japan will want to use that $US cash for hard assets that are essential for sustaining whatever economy they have left (oil) as well as assets that retain value/purchasing power (gold).

So upward pressure on price of oil & gold both presumably still denominated in $US - which would put downward pressure on $US & upward pressure on inflation (assuming Fed exchanges dolllars for Japan's $US debt, to also try to keep US interest rates from rising)

Sat, 01/19/2013 - 01:45 | Link to Comment secret_sam
secret_sam's picture

Oil and gold will everforth be "denominated" in all competing currencies. 

When "the dollar" is the ONLY denominator, the entire world is on fire and the USA is considering escalating to nukes. 

That's always been how we roll.

Sat, 01/19/2013 - 01:06 | Link to Comment Diogenes
Diogenes's picture

"Agreed, so they sell their US Treasury holdings back to probably the only party that will buy them (US Fed - also the only party big enough to take that supply off Japan's hands without severely disrupting the US treasury market) in exchange for what?  $US cash?  gold? or new $US Treasuries??? lol -"

Would you believe a big giant platinum coin? LOL. At that point will it make any difference what they do?

Sat, 01/19/2013 - 01:27 | Link to Comment pain_and_soros
pain_and_soros's picture

I'm sure Japan would take a big platinum coin over $US lol...Toyota/Honda could at least melt it down for use in catalytic converters lol.

Ultimately whatever they do may not make any difference, just trying to get a handle on the possible alternatives & their likelihood & how those scenarios may impact various asset classes/"investment" decisions.

A meltdown in the JY won't directly impact the US (other than perhaps making Japanese imports cheaper), but indirectly, I figure Japan's large $US debt holdings have to come into play in such a scenario...which could trigger a chain reaction, i.e. get China (& Saudis?) to sell their $UST holdings back to the Fed....

If that happens, there would be no more foreign financing of the US trade or fiscal deficits...the only buyer/funder of US debt would be the Fed...how long does the $US keep its world reserve currency status?

 

Sat, 01/19/2013 - 02:01 | Link to Comment old naughty
old naughty's picture

When Japan bonds go boom, what happens to all the US debt they hold?

"They sell it to the Fed, I'm guessing.  They'll need some money."

Well, they'll be 'encouraged' to re-occupy the Phillippines, to retrieve the Yamashita loot.

Gold falls...bonds hold...Yen become the new reserve currency.

All happy...except gold bugs.

 

 

Oh, wait, may be Yamashita stashed in the Diaoyu?

 

 

Wake up, wake up, Abe san.

 

 

Sat, 01/19/2013 - 10:20 | Link to Comment andrewp111
andrewp111's picture

It does not have to be "hyperinflationary". The Yen was once at 200-300 per dollar, and it could be so again. Big deal. It loses 1/2 to 2/3 of its value.  Think of it as a one time inflationary reset.

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 23:39 | Link to Comment Fix It Again Timmy
Fix It Again Timmy's picture

When one acts imprudently, bad things happen - you can take that to the bank...

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 23:44 | Link to Comment reader2010
reader2010's picture

"He who knows, does not speak. He who speaks, does not know. "

Lao Tzu 

Sat, 01/19/2013 - 02:53 | Link to Comment newengland
newengland's picture

First reckon. Then risk.

Sun Tzu...a winner, not a whiner, like your sort.

Sat, 01/19/2013 - 20:03 | Link to Comment hooligan2009
hooligan2009's picture

i think lao would be prosecuted for being sexist these days

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 23:47 | Link to Comment lovejoy
lovejoy's picture

double post

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 23:46 | Link to Comment lovejoy
lovejoy's picture

Kyle made a great call on subprime, but he will lose on this one. Forget inflation as technology a global wages are driving deflation. Say hellow to a $20 tablet http://bit.ly/SYQv1N. You want to hire a programer, an engineeer, an architect hit the internet and you will find your solution at a 90% to US, Euro or Japanese prices. Deflation until global wages reach equality.

Sun, 01/20/2013 - 14:15 | Link to Comment css1971
css1971's picture

Have you used it? It's a straight to landfill device.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BKZznmmWjcE

 

You get what you pay for.

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 23:48 | Link to Comment bobthecat
bobthecat's picture

Bass has been saying "18 to 2 years" for the past 3 years..... His Japan macro fund is down, +/- 70% since inception.  Right now he is marketing another Japan Macro fund that he wants to close around late december, i.e. the reason he is on CNBC saying this implosion will happen in "18 months to 2 years."  The fund lifespan is 3 years.  He said the exact same thing three years ago when he started marketing his Japan Macro fund.  Three years later, some of his tranches have been closed out, while others are barely holding in there....  We'll see what happens in the next 18 months.  

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 23:56 | Link to Comment holdbuysell
holdbuysell's picture

"Japan's hyperinflation appears to be contained."

- Ben Bernanke, 2014

/sarc

Sat, 01/19/2013 - 01:51 | Link to Comment old naughty
old naughty's picture

He is still around?

 

Are you sure?

Sat, 01/19/2013 - 00:01 | Link to Comment Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

Just another example of arrows missing the apple propped on your heads. Good grief, this isn’t rocket science. The game rules are waving in front of your face! Just snatch it & begin prosecuting. Winks

Sat, 01/19/2013 - 00:39 | Link to Comment Floodmaster
Floodmaster's picture

10k prius in a fews months

Sat, 01/19/2013 - 00:48 | Link to Comment newengland
newengland's picture

Since the Sandy Hook massacre, I am disinclined to acquiesce to tolerating bull$hitters.

Kyle Bass speaks plain, and correct. Those who disagree deserve their penury. Gloves off. Let the creeps fail, wherever they live, whatever politics they serve.

Math vs magic.

Math wins, as does fact.

Latest example: record levels of flu vaccine, and record levels of flu. The freak corporatists and govenment hates you. Remember that. Long live the Republic, and no sympathy for the enemies.

Sat, 01/19/2013 - 15:58 | Link to Comment Lost Word
Lost Word's picture

What do you see as the connection to Sandy Hook?

Sat, 01/19/2013 - 00:49 | Link to Comment Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

 

 

Velocity of M2 Money Stock (M2V)

Velocity of MZM Money Stock (MZMV)

Velocity of M1 Money Stock (M1V)

 

Comrades, you must help this economy by redistributing your wealth to the service the Federal Reserve exit with a soft landing.

/sarc

Sat, 01/19/2013 - 01:05 | Link to Comment newengland
newengland's picture

;-) Atomizer,

Lenin funded by the Rotchilds banksters said: crush the bourgeoise between the millstones of taxation and inflation.

Oh, the irony of it. They would have nothing without taxpayers. Perhaps that's why they pursue endless war...in order to herd the sheeple into paying for 'safety'.

PS,

CONgress permitted Obama to sign the NDAA, a fascist script. They would love it if brother and sister divided along their CONgress Party on dude lines, and gave them a pretext to quell the people.

Kyle Bass is right about the Japanese problem which mirrors the problem of CONgress.

I believe in math, not magic; fact, not fantasy.

Time serves the just.

 

 

Sat, 01/19/2013 - 02:16 | Link to Comment Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

All in the Family, say what?

 

Joke is on the beholder of three branches of US Government.  /lol

Sat, 01/19/2013 - 02:34 | Link to Comment newengland
newengland's picture

Atomizer,

Say this: government hates us. That is all we need to know, and my family have known this since 1620, and before.

If you're looking for a track of our times, Jimi Hendrix the paratrooper told it straight, and died young of drugs for his mourning his fallen comrades. PTSD.

I think it is very sick that people take the red pill or the blue pill, both poison.

My country, my people, my money, our values. Fuck off to the corporatists, and their debt slaves.

For the Republic or against it.

No surrender.

Ta for the link. Best wishes to you and yours.

Sat, 01/19/2013 - 02:37 | Link to Comment Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

I was just being a little facetious at this hour. Even my better half will needle me on my sarcastic tendencies. Off to bed. Take care.

Sat, 01/19/2013 - 02:42 | Link to Comment newengland
newengland's picture

Good person, Atomizer. No harm intended, and no harm taken. Rest well.

Sat, 01/19/2013 - 00:59 | Link to Comment Floodmaster
Floodmaster's picture

 Each of the new dollars "created" by the Fed are circulating through the economy less rapidly => DEFLATION, Gold Bugs don't get it....

Sat, 01/19/2013 - 01:04 | Link to Comment newengland
newengland's picture

Floodmaster,

You will get it, your failed politics and failed fiat. Boo hoo for your sort.

Sat, 01/19/2013 - 02:09 | Link to Comment linrom
linrom's picture

Some one who read Kyle's Fund's prospectus told me that he is all TALK. His bet on Japan amounts to 2%. He is throwing in dimes into $1 slot machine and pretending that he a big player so he can get a FREE drink in a REAL casino.

 

 

 

Sat, 01/19/2013 - 02:14 | Link to Comment newengland
newengland's picture

linrom,

Ninny, darling.

Sat, 01/19/2013 - 13:43 | Link to Comment css1971
css1971's picture

So if it pays out big while the rest of his portfolio tanks for the same reason. He could be considered "hedged"?

Sat, 01/19/2013 - 02:24 | Link to Comment Dark Meadowlark
Dark Meadowlark's picture

No collapse is coming, folks. Sorry! Moderate growth and an ever higher grinding stock market are here to stay!

Sat, 01/19/2013 - 02:44 | Link to Comment sitenine
sitenine's picture

Hopium much?

Sat, 01/19/2013 - 03:02 | Link to Comment newengland
newengland's picture

Ingsoc is much liked by the duped. Resist, we must. And probably meet under the chestnut tree...or oak tree :-(

Sat, 01/19/2013 - 02:48 | Link to Comment newengland
newengland's picture

Inflation adjusted?

Sweety, that scam works for you, apparently.

Crush the bourgeoise between the millstones of inflation and taxation, said Lenin ... funded by the AshkeNAZI Rotchilds. You agree, apparently.

You really must get over your 20th century script if you want to survive the 21st century backlash. Your sort made Frankenstein.

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