Doug Casey: "We Are Living In The Middle Of The Biggest Bubble In History."

Tyler Durden's picture




 

The recovery since the 2008 financial crisis is just an illusion created by the papering-over of our insolvency by central-bank printing. Doug Casey adds that the current state is akin to being "in the eye of the hurricane thanks to this 'cover'" and believes the printing which will ultimately lead to very high inflation once bank lending starts to pick up again. This excellent interview moves from Casey's view of a looming loss of confidence in the dollar (and the impact of mass repatriation) to what must the Keynesians be thinking as the "apparency of prosperity" remains all that we have to lift animal spirits. With an eye to gold (and non-western central banks behavior towards it as they realize "the USD is just an unsecured liability of a bankrupt government"), he evaluates the likelihood of a western economic collapse in 2013 and what that would imply for an implicit gold standard in the world. From Austrian economist Hans Herman-Hoppe's view of a post-Keynesian-crash era to his potential triggers for this collapse (such as gold-energy barter and non-dollar blocs), Casey succinctly reminds us that there is not just one asset-class bubble but that "we are living in the middle of the biggest bubble in history."

 

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Fri, 01/18/2013 - 18:54 | 3167773 Rusty Shorts
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"could it be mere coincidence that the 99 year lease of the FED ends EXACTLY on 12/21/2012"?

 

Did the World really end on 12/21/2012???

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 19:25 | 3167840 reTARD
reTARD's picture

But, but, but don't we just keep going around passing Go and collecting $200?

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 18:11 | 3167659 bugs_
bugs_'s picture

The Pundit Bubble?

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 18:18 | 3167676 Number 156
Number 156's picture

The so called "apparency of prosperity" is just a confidence game. They all collapse in due time, and this one will be the mother of all collapses.

Welcome to Dark Ages 2.0 The new age of serfdom is well under way as it happened when Diocletian was Emperor of Rome.

 

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 18:18 | 3167684 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

Except this time, the Goths will be known as the Progressives.

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 18:27 | 3167715 Number 156
Number 156's picture

..And the Keynesians will be extinct because they would have run out of spending money.

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 18:33 | 3167729 Carl Spackler
Carl Spackler's picture

That day will be noted as a step forward for humanity.

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 18:21 | 3167695 drink or die
drink or die's picture

Diversify out of paper and into popcorn and buckshot, bitches.

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 18:22 | 3167698 Zola
Zola's picture

This article should be required reading and on ZH front page ! Mongols were WAAAAYYY smarter than Americans !!

http://mises.org/daily/5886/

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 18:25 | 3167712 h0oS
h0oS's picture

Diocletian was a pretty good emperor, as emperors go. Heck if I could abdicate and grow cabbages in my own palace after unifying the empire I'd be happy with that. The Dark Ages (if they really were all that Dark) were ushered in by the idiots that grabbed power after his reign.

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 18:42 | 3167747 Number 156
Number 156's picture

Yeah, he wasnt too bad, except the the wealth of the empire was fading, and he tried to tax his way out of it.

Sound familliar?

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 18:27 | 3167719 Siegfried
Siegfried's picture

You predict the end of the world 10 times a day and crashes 3 times a day. I am always alive and I make money in stock exchange. What to ask of better? To shout too much in the wolf we lose any credibility.

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 18:39 | 3167741 Number 156
Number 156's picture

 

 

Harry Randall Truman
Born    October 30, 1896
Ivydale, Clay County, West Virginia

Died    May 18, 1980 (aged 83)
Mount St. Helens, Washington

- He was warned.

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 18:39 | 3167744 drink or die
drink or die's picture

Perhaps this chart will help answer your question:

 

http://stephenkinsella.net/WordPress/wp-content/uploads/2008/08/turkey.jpg

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 18:36 | 3167734 Mr. Hudson
Mr. Hudson's picture

We will all be starving, running around naked, looking for gold.

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 18:45 | 3167752 Falconsixone
Falconsixone's picture

Speaking of false siege. There needs to be real siege of all government and banks world wide until they come out and face their makers.

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 18:47 | 3167758 PUD
PUD's picture

NATURE WILL FINISH THIS FOLLY OFF...


“In the last 50 years there has been a 16-fold increase in ozone pollution” in the Beijing area, said Hanqin Tian of Auburn University in Alabama, who studies the effects of China's pollution and climate change on plants. He said the soup of pollutants, including harmful sulfur and nitrogen compounds “is definitely expanding into new areas; into the countryside.”

Ozone is particularly harmful to plants because it damages the pores on leaves, called stomata, which plants use to regulate how much water transpires from the leaves. That, in turn, affects how much water a plant must take up through its roots. Changes in water uptake by plants have been documented in other parts of the world, including the United States, as having major impacts on regional groundwater and surface water supplies.

“So you could affect the water cycle,” said Hanqin Tian. That's probably not such a good thing in a changing climate and in northern China, where droughts have become a chronic problem, he explained.

The ozone pollution in this case is not the naturally occurring ozone layer up in the stratosphere, which protects Earth's surface from ultraviolet radiation. Rather, it's an entirely man-made byproduct of internal combustion engines in cars.

BLOG: Do Fewer Trees Mean More Death?

In studies of the long-term productivity of plants, Tian Hanqin and some of his colleagues show that ozone pollution, along with climate change, has been lowering plant productivity in China, which reduces the amount of carbon and other pollutants that the plants can absorb to combat all the emissions from the burning of fossil fuels.

The worst effects on plants are likely to be in areas where the growing pollution problem is just fairly new, said Arthur Chappelka, also a plant researcher at Auburn University. Some plants are more resistant to pollutants than others, he said, and the plants that are living today in long-polluted urban areas are likely to be only those that are very pollution tolerant.

Away from the cities, however, where crops are needed to feed China's vast population, the effects of the growing pollution on crops is a significant concern.

“In some ways it affects the crop production and food security of China,” said Hanqin Tian. “Air quality is really important for human health, plants and ecosystem and sustainability."

The problem is bound to get worse as China continues to develop economically, he said, and so he and other researchers continue to urge the Chinese government to take action to reduce emissions from cars and industries.

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 19:10 | 3167809 NuckingFuts
NuckingFuts's picture

History shows again and again how nature points out the folly of man.
- BOC

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 20:34 | 3167857 Aurora Ex Machina
Aurora Ex Machina's picture

Already priced in.

Asked on the benefits of cooperation between the two countries, the minister said that under cooperation agreements between China and Madagascar, Madagascar has benefited in infrastructure, agriculture, health, education, culture and hospitality, as well as loans and grants for several projects to build infrastructures and facilities.

On the prospects and achievements of cooperation between the two countries, Rajaonarivelo expressed his hope on the continuity and strengthening of diplomatic relationships and economic, technical, military and cultural cooperation, the continuation of sending Chinese medical team in Madagascar, and building capacity for Malagasy technicians in China. [source]

Put another way: everyone has already put their pieces on the table for the agri-rush of 2014 - 2020. Sadly, China's pieces are economic & manpower; the West's are extractive & drones. Or, put another way: why in the fuck has Mali "gone South", when the World Bank / IMF has been all over it for years? Answer: extractive economics. The Tuaregs aren't operating in a vacuum, and there's plenty of dissent in Mali over the IMF policies & lack of sharing (oh, but that was before the AlQuaeds from Lybia and Algeria came along, wasn't it?), but I suppose we'll just add another ethnic group into the grinder under the blanket phrase of "Jihadists" when we sweep past into Northern Nigeria, won't we? Say what you want about the Chinese, but at least they build shit (even if they're using their own labour etc as a GDP booster or it's more empty cities). Note: we did catch the nice note in the Mali BBC coverage tonight that filmed the "Friendship bridge", and never mentioned who built it. More bullshit *wink* *wink* *nudge* *nudge* for the crossword classes.

 

Oh, and on topic: look up how long it took the USA to clean up its act from the excesses of 1950-1970 industrial boom[1]. Nixon put the EPA on the table, remember, and it worked. Also see the solution to the dust bowl (and other great engineering projects): NRCS - bottom line that once you've removed the old growth ecosystems (which you shouldn't, as you need 1,000+ years of complexity for nice stuff, and permanently removing DNA that has spent millions of years perfecting solutions to problems that you might have is fucking Darwin award level behaviour, but let's deal with the situation we've got), fixing them back into lesser but semi-complex state ecologies can be done. Tarmac don't count, wunderkind.

What I really hear over the trumpeting of "EPA is bad for business" or "Climate Change doesn't exist", is pessimistic fear, doom and bullshit; I hear nothing more than the ignorance of a once great engineering and scientific nation. Look up the Mississippi modelling done in the 194/50's with scale models. Think what you could be doing now, if you weren't mired in ignorance, ineptitude and religious twaddle.

At some point everyone should really look at the hundreds of thousands of WalMarts, strip malls and decaying suburbs from Detroit to LA, and think: is this really the best we can do?

 

Answer, it isn't. Next question: how the hell do you get back in the saddle, cowboys (and girls)? Hint: it ain't the Koch brothers or the WalMart family going to help you to do it.

 

 

[1] Ignoring water tables over fracking & killing off EPA is insanity btw. Nixon was no shrinking violet, nor a "socialist", ffs. Neither was Kissinger.

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 21:35 | 3168125 NuckingFuts
NuckingFuts's picture

+1 for sanity on environmental issues.

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 22:25 | 3168198 Aurora Ex Machina
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I'm 100% honest, so hey:

This is the level of sanity that can save the current readership of ZH from disaster, and indeed (and more importantly) make them help out in the now of the crisis. i.e. The level which correlates with the average user's ideology and can help them fix the malaise of current USA problems and environmental crash, while still allowing them to remain true to their core ideology.

This is not dishonest; this is (unlike Fox News etc etc) a solution to the problems arising, while remaining true to the average ZH user's sociological background. I'm not here to convert, nor sell, nor soap-box. I will, however, present 100% truthful information in a way that I think a large % of ZH viewers can digest. That's it. All of this is within the American Ideological Position of [a certain % of] ZH readers, but:

They never, ever, ever, get to hear it anymore.

The MSM is either lies or is bollocks about how EBT is good or fear or whatever; and these people are too smart for it.

And this goes for the money cynical as well. Make enough money, you're only ever hearing about the Benjamins, and no worries about the world that allows the benjamins to exist.

 

When was the last real time you heard someone say: "You know what, fuck all this hysteria, let's get down and fix this shit"?

 

I will never lie. I will never twist facts. I will never present bad sources (well, ok - all MSM sources are tainted, but hey, I'll give you warning). I will never seek to convert. I'm here to widen the discourse. Opinions? Sure! But: I have an absolute respect for all others, and hey ~ when people tell me I'm a muppet, they're probably right, but I will ask why. I'm here to remind them that there's other ways out there, perfectly normal, that are never featured on MSM or Conspiracy sites etc.

 

Bottom line: the real money makers of the USA are getting fucked, totally, by bigger fish. And most of the available resources to get information are either owned by the big six, or run by loopy fucktards sponsored by the CIA.

 

 

My own personal view is somewhat different. Ask me that, and you'd better get Tip E Canoe on the line ;)

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 18:52 | 3167767 falak pema
falak pema's picture

gold bugs and obssession.

Is gold the be all of life or the ultimate hedge against the fiat bubble?

The two are incompatible. As the first makes gold into a god that refuses to be exploited for the needs of commerce.

"Hoard me ,worship me but never trade me!" So says Chrysus of Gold. 'I am God and I am to be treasured for evermorei"

"Trade me, whore me, adore me but spend me like your semen" says Messalina of gold barter trade.

Choose gold bugs! Its either Chrysus or its Messalina.

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 18:59 | 3167787 PUD
PUD's picture

you can't eat gold, governments can and have stolen your gold. it is a mineral...a rock...every bit a fiat currency supported by faith as the dollar. if you can't eat it, drink it, cover your back with it, it's only worth what the next greater fool says it's worth

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 19:24 | 3167820 Rogue Trooper
Rogue Trooper's picture

PUD.. your first sentence is true.  The rest bullshit.  Did you listen to the podcast? I doubt it you just felt the need to post your tripe on impluse?

Diversify, including gold storage outside your jurisdiction, keep some physical, food and most importantly LEAD.

If you have not got a get out of dodge plan then don't wait until the last minute - you need a Plan B.

Slightly off topic but a possible vision of NY when the EBT cards either stop working or just can't buy any useful shit.... I am sure Bloomberg will be on the first Chopper.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_FYW9hzZ8Ho

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 19:45 | 3167881 PUD
PUD's picture

Yes I listened to it. I listen to everyone. However, I do not need the opinion of another for me to know rational truth. Gold like paper money is only as valuable as the next person says it is. As money it is no more valuable as wampum or tally sticks were. All money is confidence or lack thereof and that includes gold. The fact that people have equated gold with value for thousands of years has no relevance now. In an age of scarcity which we are entering at light speed, the only things of true value are those things that actually sustain life. Everything else is a temporary contrivance. You can sit on your pile of gold but when the system breaks down it will be worthless. Likewise your lead...how many gunfights do you think you will win? Everything talked about here is pointless from a biological perspective. When the earth can no longer sustain homo sapiens we will go the way of the dodo without a single tear shed.

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 21:11 | 3168073 Sparkey
Sparkey's picture

Good for you Pud, a succinct explaination which goes to the heart of the emotional reaction to gold, Money only lives in the minds of men, and money, (The currency of exchange) is what people agree it is, nothing is money save people think it is.

To expound further, since I now have the floor, we creatures inhabit two Worlds simultaneously, the older, and primary, being our bodies, our bodies created and controlled my nature through the commands of instinct, and the second, the one which exists in our consciousness, this, the second, is where our ideas of God, money, Nation etc. exist and have no existence beyond our minds, what did Dinosaurs think about? Your predjudice says nothing, but really, how do you know? Eternity is for ever, on the scale of forever everything eventually becomes too small to measure.

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 23:55 | 3168361 Acidtest Dummy
Acidtest Dummy's picture

But I bet that dinosaurs loved eating gold! RAWR!

PROSECUTE THE WAR CRIMINALS!

Sat, 01/19/2013 - 00:15 | 3168370 Rogue Trooper
Rogue Trooper's picture

Thoughtful reply PUD.  Appreciate the time you have taken to provide another perspective. That is truly the value of ZH..... one should always question ones own thinking.  I for one do not see a true 'Madmax' dystopia has you are perhaps suggesting.  On the other hand I also do not discount the possibility.  Should that be the case then neither a hoard of Gold nor guns & ammo for that matter will be of much use in the end.

I guess we can only wait and see how this plays out.

Keep challenging. Last thing we need here is group think!

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 19:50 | 3167888 PUD
PUD's picture

Also...there is no place to go. Those without will hunt you down, others with guns will shoot back for your last can of spam. You will have to sleep. You will get a tooth infection and there will be no treatment and you will die no matter how big your stash is. And when all the worlds nuclear plants melt down after the last worker has fled to his bug out retreat the entire planet will be uninhabitable. There is no way out. There is no fix. There is no escape, no safe havens, no safe asset. When it all goes so too do all of us...all of us

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 20:22 | 3167972 Calmyourself
Calmyourself's picture

Umm, you don't get laid a lot do you? That is a bit of a buzzkill for a Friday night and frankly bullshit.  The worst scenario kills many of us, all of us, don't think so that is just an algorasm your having it will pass.  Up the meds son.

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 21:19 | 3168088 Sparkey
Sparkey's picture

Still correct in all you say! This is the last chance we have to continue, yet we seem incapable of change, as Pud says, we all must die yet, why? For the most part we are still eating, why can't we just slow down a bit and think things through a bit better?

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 19:44 | 3167879 Encroaching Darkness
Encroaching Darkness's picture

" if you can't eat it, drink it, cover your back with it, it's only worth what the next greater fool says it's worth"

Unless, of course, you need a corrosion-resistant electrical contact (say, for circuit boards); a catalyst for certain reactions (not large use, I know, but still...);a new filling in a tooth; a reflective film for glass windows; or...

http://www.goldsealplating.com/

http://multimedia.3m.com/mws/mediawebserver?mwsId=66666UuZjcFSLXTtnXMEnX...

http://geology.com/minerals/gold/uses-of-gold.shtml

 

 

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 19:58 | 3167906 PUD
PUD's picture

i did not say that gold was worthless...it does have applications. But in the truest purest biological sense it is useless. Calcium has more importance. Salt has more importance. The "value" of gold is assigned by those who believe it has some value outside of its utility. Should that belief falter then gold will be worth less than salt. Should the system collapse as I and many of you see as inevitable...it will be worth less than salt. Salt can preserve meat gold can't.

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 20:35 | 3168004 Encroaching Darkness
Encroaching Darkness's picture

Just as you say, "i did not say that gold was worthless" ... I do not claim biological benefits (although gold can be biocompatible, but surgical titanium is cheaper (for the moment)); once the system breaks down (and I agree it will, poorly designed, ineptly operated and insufficiently maintained systems ALWAYS break down), other systems will replace them. Perhaps not quickly; perhaps not quickly enough, to suit most people. But let's assume you and I crawl out of our cellars in a decade, and I find you have salt and I have calcium, potassium and boron, which you need. The two of us can do barter, perhaps; but trade runs deep in human DNA as well. Once something starts to reboot trade, will you ever again take paper money? Or will you insist on a material that cannot be printed, inflated, deflated or depreciated to store your hard-earned wealth?

Gold has value beyond utility; it can serve as money (it IS money, the only true money, to some) and is universally recognized as divisible, undecaying, self-similar and so forth (see Aristotle's definition of money). History teaches if we will study it and learn.

Sat, 01/19/2013 - 13:26 | 3168943 cranky-old-geezer
cranky-old-geezer's picture

 

 

Why do you (and others) feel the need to bash gold? 

If you feel gold isn't worth your time, ok, fine, ignore it, go invest your money elsewhere.

Your weak "can't eat it" arguments are pretty trivial compared to 5,000 years of human history.

Sat, 01/19/2013 - 15:31 | 3168543 New World Chaos
New World Chaos's picture

Gold has certain uses above all others:  It calls bullshit on the scams and hubris of the central planners.  It helps in crashing rotten systems.  It is a medium for the awakened to transfer their wealth from a doomed system into a new system which respects the rights of the little people.  If humans could keep paper systems honest over time, then gold would be worth a few percent of its current (manipulated) value.  All industrial and scientific uses require only minuscule amounts of gold.

Due to thousands of years of hoarding, the freshly mined annual supply is less than 2% of the aboveground supply.  Therefore the supply/demand curve is highly inelastic, which means that gold is money.  It is money that even the miners cannot "print" at more than 2% per year, which of course is much less than real inflation and real losses on government bonds even before the bubble pops.  The more people who realize this, the higher gold goes, and the inelastic supply/demand curve means there is no fever like gold fever.  Physical gold outside the system is also very hard to steal by legal means.  Now you understand why the puppetmasters simultaneously love gold for their personal stash and hate it for being available to us.

"Because gold is honest money, it is disliked by dishonest men" -Ron Paul

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 18:52 | 3167768 Rogue Trooper
Rogue Trooper's picture

Casey or Krugman?  You decide Bitchez.

To all the newbee TPTB trolls that have started to 'appear' on this sight... Molon Labe!

Rogue

"Fear Not You Have An M1A"

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 19:04 | 3167801 masterinchancery
masterinchancery's picture

When the next little (or not so little) Ice Age hits, food will be the new gold.

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 19:21 | 3167833 robnume
robnume's picture

Bank lending is going to start up again? I think not. Who the hell has the cajones - or the credit qualifications - to borrow from U.S. banks? Christ, you can't even save anymore, let alone borrow. Buy silver and gold.

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 19:23 | 3167835 Zynga
Zynga's picture

MOAB - Mother of All Bubbles - The GOVERNMENT Bubble

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 19:25 | 3167839 lieto
lieto's picture

Fiat currency in the age of digital printing will make tulips look valuable before its over.

Can't help but think historians are going to look back at it and wonder what the f.... we were thinking.

 

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 19:33 | 3167842 Monedas
Monedas's picture

Pre-Tungsten Gold Standard  ....  Post-Tungsten Platinum "Super Money" Standard .... Gold IS a relic .... Platinum rules !  Platinum .... Post Perfect Bubble Standard !  Platinum will come in handy when someone wants real money, right now ....no drilling, no assaying .... just displacement dip and weigh ! It might be stipulated .... in the most urgent, serious business deals .... like drugs, weapons, bribes and ransom ? Beware the "Platinum Premium" factor .... when we actually start using PMs in earnest !   Chez Bitchez !     Monedas     1929     Comedy Jihad World Tour

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 21:58 | 3168168 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Au and Pt. Diversification allows you to win either way!

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 19:32 | 3167858 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

There are a more than a few cosmologists also believe that we are living in bubble... And since the universe is expanding, that bubble gets "bigger" every day....

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 19:37 | 3167867 Monedas
Monedas's picture

My cosmotologist and your cosmologist should do lunch .... they can solve the problem of cosmos stretch marks !

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 19:40 | 3167875 Monedas
Monedas's picture

I just hope the "Perfect Bubble" pops .... before this blood bubble in my brain pops !

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 19:50 | 3167884 Monedas
Monedas's picture

The biggest bubble in hysterectomy !    WTF ?  Isn't this the Friday humour thread ?

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 19:55 | 3167894 SmittyinLA
SmittyinLA's picture

We can sell electricity to the state of California to pay off our debts, all powered by a giant fiat paper fired boiler in ElPaso.  

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 19:56 | 3167900 DowTheorist
DowTheorist's picture

While I agree with the fundamentally-based case for a great bubble, I cannot dismiss the technical action of the market.

In Weimar Germany, the world was going almost under but ,second to gold, stocks underwent a bull market.

So while I agree with the assessment, I wouldn't argue with the markets. Don't fight the trend.

Today the "classical" Dow theory flashed a primary bull market signal. So now all three variants of the Dow Theory ("classical/Rhea", Schannep's and Schaefer's) are in agreement as it is explained here  http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2013/01/dow-theory-update-for-jan-18-...

We are in a primary bull market. While we may not agree with the fundamentals, we, as investors, shouldn't fight the market. 

 

 

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