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Guest Post: Fiscal Farce, Failure, Fantasy, & Fornication

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Submitted by Jim Quinn of The Burning Platform blog,

I’ve put off writing an article about what is likely to happen in 2013 so I could peruse the thousands of other articles by reputable bloggers, paid pundits, Wall Street shills and captured charlatans to gather their wisdom. It’s essential that I make predictions for 2013 so I can write another article in December rationalizing why 90% of my predictions failed to materialize. Reading all of these 2013 prediction articles made things much clearer for me. I now know for sure:

  • The stock market will reach an all-time high.
  • The stock market will fall 42%.
  • The economy will strengthen as the year progresses.
  • The economy will descend into a depression.
  • The USD will strengthen.
  • The USD will collapse.
  • Gas prices will set new highs.
  • Gas prices will fall below 2012 levels.
  • Gold will rise to $10,000 per ounce.
  • Gold will drop below $1,000 per ounce.
  • We will experience hyperinflation.
  • We will experience horrific deflation.
  • Obama will compromise with the Republicans and put the country on a path to prosperity.
  • Obama will create a debt ceiling crisis and assume dictatorial powers as a result.
  • Snooki will be a better mother than Kim Kardashian.
  • Honey Boo Boo will beat I Didn’t Know I Was Pregnant in the Neilson ratings.

The majority of 2013 prediction articles are written to support the agenda of the writer. Many are trying to sell newsletter subscriptions or investment services. Their predictions will match the theme of their newsletter. Others are Wall Street paid shills who will predict what they are paid to predict by their owners. Then there are the political hacks who tow the party line with their predictions. But no one can top the predictive powers of the CBO. They just put out their ten year updated forecast reflecting the fabulous fiscal cliff deal that saved the country. According to the CBO, the “compromise” to reduce our deficits will add a mere $4 trillion to the national debt over the next ten years. I’m sure this will prove to be accurate. Just take a look at their 2002 projection, after passage of the Bush tax cuts:

The CBO predicted the FY2012 surplus would be $641 billion, the national debt would total $3.5 trillion, the debt held by the public would total $1.273 trillion, and GDP would total $17.2 trillion. They missed by that much.

 

The actual FY12 results were:

  • The true deficit was $1.37 trillion (amount national debt increased – not the phony deficit number reported by the mainstream media).
  • The national debt was $16.1 trillion.
  • The debt held by the public was $11.3 trillion.
  • GDP was $15.8 trillion.

Based on these results, I won’t be asking the CBO for help with my Super Bowl bet. Making ten year predictions is beyond worthless, but public policy in Washington DC is based on these useless CBO projections. The entire fiscal cliff kabuki theater fictitious crisis reveals the politicians and mainstream media pundits to be liars, fools and frauds. The tax the rich to cut the deficit storyline was sold to the public and won the day. Of course, the highly accurate CBO immediately revealed that the Orwellian named American Taxpayer Relief Act of 2012 adds $4 trillion to the national debt over the next ten years. Based on the accuracy of their previous predictions, it’s a guarantee the national debt goes up by $8 trillion, as the rich take advantage of the thousands of loopholes in the IRS code they paid for to avoid paying the taxes expected by the CBO.

Hypocrisy abounds on both sides of the aisle in Washington DC and on the media company propaganda channels. As the national debt soared from $10.6 trillion on the day Obama took office to $16.4 trillion today, I heard shrieking liberal talking heads on MSNBC, CNN, and the rest of the liberal media blame the debt on the Bush tax cuts and the Bush wars. If the Bush tax cuts were so horrific, why did Obama and his minions just make 98% of these tax cuts permanent? Liberals held protest marches across the country against Bush’s wars and burned him in effigy. Obama’s defense budgets have been larger than Bush’s and he doubled down on our miserable failure in Afghanistan. You don’t hear a peep from the liberals about the warmongering Barack Obama who has kill lists and unleashes predator drones, killing women and children across the globe. Liberals pretend to be concerned about the welfare of the citizens, but continue to support a President that uses executive orders to imprison citizens indefinitely without charges, has expanded surveillance on citizens, has kept Guantanamo open, signs the continuation of the Patriot Act, and proposes overturning the Second Amendment by executive order. Liberals shriek about the evils of an unregulated Wall Street, while remaining silent as Obama hasn’t prosecuted a single banker for the greatest financial fraud in world history. You don’t hear a peep about Jon Corzine, who stole $1.2 billion from the accounts of farmers and ranchers. Liberals talk about regulation and then stand idly by while Wall Street lobbyists wrote the Dodd Frank law and insurance and drug company lobbyists wrote the Obamacare law. Liberal hypocrisy knows no bounds and is only matched by Neo-Con hypocrisy.

The Neo-Con controlled Republican Party is a pathetic joke. They have the guts to declare themselves the party of fiscal responsibility, after Bush’s eight year reign of error. He and his fiscally responsible party were handed a budget in surplus and managed to add $4.9 trillion to the national debt by waging undeclared wars, encouraging Wall Street to create the biggest fraudulent financial bubble in history, creating a new $16 trillion unfunded entitlement (Medicare Part D), cutting taxes without paying for them, and creating a massive new government agency (DHS) to take away our liberties and freedom. Federal government spending grew from $1.9 trillion to $3.0 trillion under Bush and the Republicans. Does that sound fiscally responsible?

Does anyone believe the Republican Party is serious about cutting anything? Tough guy Republicans like Big Chris Christie preach fiscal responsibility when going to war with teachers’ unions, but he squeals  like a stuck pig when a $60 billion pork filled, unpaid for, Sandy Relief bill is held up in Congress. The courageous fiscally responsible Congress critters passed the entire pork filled, unfunded, bloated, vote buying joke. It included $28 billion to mitigate future disasters, $3 billion to repair or replace Federal assets, and $6 billion for transportation projects completely unrelated to Sandy damage.   The hypocrisy of politicians who proclaim the $50 billion of 2013 fiscal cliff tax revenue as deficit cutting, and then immediately piss it away by paying people to rebuild their houses yards from the Atlantic Ocean while funding billions of non-disaster related projects is disgusting to behold. There is nothing like compromise to add another $60 billion to the national debt.

Our entire economic and political system is a farce. The American people are being played by the powerful interests that provide them with an illusion of choice. Both parties serve the interests of their masters and the fiscal cliff show and debt ceiling show are a form of reality TV to keep the masses alarmed, fearful, and believing there is actually a difference between the policies of the ruling class. The charade has played out in its full glory in the last few weeks with Obama convincing the masses he had stuck it to the rich, while in reality the working middle class got it good and hard when they got their January paychecks. This chart details the tax changes that went into effect on January 1.          

 taxbill

The funniest part this fiscal fiasco farce is watching the reaction of the sheep who believed Obama and the mainstream media storyline. Obama was able to raise the published top rate on people making over $400,000. The newly defined “rich” laughed heartily as they know only fools pay anywhere near the top rate. The rich just call their tax advisor and instruct them to use one of the thousands of tax loopholes in the 75,000 page IRS tax code to “legally” avoid the new Obama rates. Meanwhile, both parties and their mainstream media mouthpieces downplayed the 2% payroll tax increase on every working American. This tax increase has been a complete surprise to the reality TV zombies and Facebook aficionados. Even college educated professionals in my office had no idea their next monthly paycheck was going to be $150 to $200 lighter. This will wipe out most, or all, of the annual raise they received. The tax will fall heavily on the 75% of households that make less than the $113,700 Social Security cutoff. For a struggling family of four earning the median income of $50,000, the $1,000 less in their paychecks will mean less food, putting off trips to the doctor, driving on bald tires, or not taking the family on a vacation to the Jersey shore. The $2,274 increase in taxes (.57%) for the Wall Street banker making $400,000 probably won’t put too much of a crimp in his Hamptons lifestyle.

The joke is on the American people as the rich will ante up maybe $50 billion of taxes in 2013, while the working middle class will be skewered for $125 billion. How’s that “Tax the Rich” slogan working out for you?     

 

Only in the Orwellian capital of Washington DC would a bill that was supposed to provide tax relief to the middle class and spending cuts to reduce the deficit, actually increase the tax burden of a median household by $1,000 and perpetuate the pork spending payoffs to campaign contributors and friends of the slimy politicians that slither through the halls of Congress. The list of pork and bribes should be nauseating to hard working Americans across the country:

$30 billion extension of the 99 weeks of unemployment benefits, even though we are supposedly in the 3rd year of economic recovery. Continuing to pay people to not work for two years will surely boost employment.

$14.3 billion for a two-year extension of the corporate research credit benefiting large technology companies like IBM and Hewlett Packard.

$12.2 billion one-year extension of the production tax credit for wind power.

$11.2 billion two- year extension of the active financing exception, which lets GE, Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) and Citigroup Inc. (C), among others, defer taxes on financing income they earn outside the U.S.

$1.9 billion extension of the Work Opportunity Tax Credit for hiring workers from disadvantaged groups, benefitting mega-restaurant chains like McDonalds.

$1.8 billion extension of the New Markets Tax Credit for investments in low- income areas, benefitting JP Morgan and other Wall Street shyster banks.

$650 million tax credit for manufacturing energy-efficient appliances, benefitting mega-corps like Whirlpool.

$430 million for Hollywood through “special expensing rules” to encourage TV and film production in the United States. Producers can expense up to $15 million of costs for their projects. NBC thanks you.

$331 million for railroads by allowing short-line and regional operators to claim a tax credit up to 50% of the cost to maintain tracks that they own or lease.

$248 million in special expensing rules for films and television programs.

$222 million for Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands through returned excise taxes collected by the federal government on rum produced in the islands and imported to the mainland.

$78 million for NASCAR by extending a “7-year cost recovery period for certain motorsports racing track facilities.”

$59 million for algae growers through tax credits to encourage production of “cellulosic biofuel” at up to $1.01 per gallon.

$4 million for electric motorcycle makers by expanding an existing green-energy tax credit for buyers of plug-in vehicles to include electric motorbikes.

So when you see the cut in your take home pay, just comfort yourself knowing that JP Morgan, Citigroup, GE and hundreds of mega-corporations were able to retain their tax breaks. As they have done for decades, Congress and the President agreed to address spending cuts at a future date. Of course, a government spending cut isn’t actually a cut. It’s a lower increase than their previous projection. Nothing is ever cut in Washington DC. The austerity storyline is a lie. Not a dime has been cut from the Federal budget. Intellectually dishonest ideologues try to peddle the wind down of the Obama $800 billion porkulus program as a cut in Federal spending. They sold this Keynesian “shovel ready” crap to a gullible public as stimulus to jumpstart the economy. Federal spending was $3.0 trillion before the Obama stimulus. After the two year stimulus was pissed away without helping the economy one iota, the baseline should have been back in the $3.2 trillion range. Instead, FY13 Federal spending will be $3.8 trillion. This hasn’t kept liberal ideologues like Krugman and his minions in the mainstream media from blaming crazy Tea Party Republicans for inflicting horrendous austerity measures on the poor and disadvantaged.

 

The chart above reveals a few truths:

  • The country has been blessed with two of the worst presidents in U.S. history over the last twelve years.
  • When Federal spending as a percentage of GDP is beyond two standard deviations over the normal range during the last sixty years, your problem is not lack of tax revenue.
  • Obama and the current Congress are spending at a level of 24% of GDP versus the 18% of GDP when Clinton left office. This amounts to a nose bleed altitude $950 billion higher than the level Clinton was spending in his final year in office.

The Op-eds in liberal rags across the land decry the lack of civility in Washington DC and plead for politicians on both sides of the aisle to come together and compromise for the good of the country. This line of bullshit would be laughable if it wasn’t so wretched in its falsity. Compromise is what has left this country with a $16.4 trillion national debt, $200 trillion of unfunded liabilities, and $1 trillion deficits as far as the eye can see. Democrats have compromised and let the Republicans create a warfare state. Republicans have compromised and let Democrats create a welfare state. The two headed monster living in the swamps of Washington DC just voted to increase taxes on all Americans. They voted to hand criminal Wall Street banks $700 billion. They voted to pass the Patriot Act. They voted to pass the NDAA. They’ve allowed the President to wage undeclared wars in Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, and now Iran. They voted for a $663 billion Defense bill that includes tens of billions the Secretary of Defense doesn’t even want. They will vote to raise the debt ceiling in the next two months. The last thing this country needs is more compromise. We can’t afford any more compromise. The chart above proves what can happen when gridlock ensues, spending restrictions are enforced, and confrontation displaces compromise. After the 1994 Republican takeover of Congress, gridlock ensued for the next six years. PAYGO restrictions in the Omnibus Budget Reconciliation Act of 1990 didn’t allow unfettered spending increases. The result was Federal spending falling from 22% of GDP to 18% of GDP and a budget surplus. The Pay-Go restrictions expired in 2002 and Democrats and Republicans have compromised to the tune of a $10.2 trillion increase in the national debt in ten years. The hypocrisy of pandering deceitful politicians is boundless and shows utter contempt for the intelligence of the American populace.  

“Raising the debt ceiling does not authorize more spending. It simply allows the country to pay for spending that Congress has already committed to. If congressional Republicans refuse to pay America’s bills on time, Social Security checks, and veterans benefits will be delayed. We might not be able to pay our troops, or honor our contracts with small business owners. Food inspectors, air traffic controllers, specialist who track down loose nuclear materials wouldn’t get their paychecks. Investors around the world will ask if the United States of America is in fact a safe bet. Markets could go haywire, interest rates would spike for anybody who borrows money – Every homeowner with a mortgage, every student with a college loan, every small business owner who wants to grow and hire. We are not a deadbeat nation.

It would be a self-inflicted wound on the economy. It would slow down our growth, might tip us into recession. And ironically it would probably increase our deficit. So to even entertain the idea of this happening, of the United States of America not paying its bills, is irresponsible. It’s absurd. Republicans in Congress have two choices here. They can act responsibly, and pay America’s bills, or they can act irresponsibly and put America through another economic crisis. But they will not collect a ransom in exchange for not crashing the American economy.” – President Barack Obama – January 14, 2013

“The fact that we are here today to debate raising America’s debt limit is a sign of leadership failure. It is a sign that the U.S. Government can’t pay its own bills. It is a sign that we now depend on ongoing financial assistance from foreign countries to finance our Government’s reckless fiscal policies. The Senate continues to reject a return to the common sense Pay-go rules that used to apply. Previously, Pay-go rules applied both to increases in mandatory spending and to tax cuts.

The Senate had to abide by the common sense budgeting principle of balancing expenses and revenues. But we must remember that the more we depend on foreign nations to lend us money, the more our economic security is tied to the whims of foreign leaders whose interests might not be aligned with ours. Increasing America’s debt weakens us domestically and internationally. Leadership means that ‘‘the buck stops here.’’ Instead, Washington is shifting the burden of bad choices today onto the backs of our children and grandchildren. America has a debt problem and a failure of leadership. Americans deserve better. I therefore intend to oppose the effort to increase America’s debt limit.” – Senator Barack Obama – March 16, 2006

I could have shown quotes from George W. Bush during the 2000 Presidential campaign talking about a non-interventionist foreign policy and no need for the U.S. to get involved in nation building and then proceeding to pre-emptively attack sovereign countries while wasting trillions and impoverishing unborn generations trying to create “democracy” in the Middle East at the point of a gun as a cover to protect “our” oil. The point is that we are being given the illusion of choice. Everyone knows the debt ceiling will be raised after another episode of Washington DC Kabuki Theater, presented by the corporate mainstream media in breathtaking detail, because the politicians are beholden to their owners and those owners want more of our money. That is why spending will never be willingly cut by the spineless puppet congressmen, as their strings are pulled by the corporate puppet masters and they dance to the tune of the banking oligarchs that own this country.

After witnessing the fighting of undeclared never ending wars, passage of freedom destroying legislation like the Patriot Act & NDAA, approval of pork barrel spending to the tune of hundreds of billions, rule by Executive Order, using ZIRP to extract hundreds of billions from senior citizen savers and give it to criminal Wall Street banks, forcing the American people at gunpoint to replenish the Wall Street banks with $700 billion after they had committed the greatest financial fraud in history, and a continuing trampling of the U.S. Constitution, the American people continue to remain willfully ignorant of the truth. The American Dream is dead. We’ve allowed a rich, privileged, elite few to achieve hegemony over our economic and political system with their control of the media and manipulation of our financial markets. They will collapse the country because they will never be satisfied with the amount of wealth and power they’ve accumulated. Their voracious greed will be their downfall. The sooner we can channel the anger of George Carlin, the sooner we can put an end to this corporate fascist reign of terror.         

“Politicians are put there to give you that idea that you have freedom of choice. You don’t. You have no choice. You have owners. They own you. They own everything. They own all the important land, they own and control the corporations, and they’ve long since bought and paid for the Senate, the Congress, the State Houses, and the City Halls. They’ve got the judges in their back pockets. And they own all the big media companies so they control just about all the news and information you get to hear. They’ve got you by the balls.

They spend billions of dollars every year lobbying to get what they want. Well, we know what they want; they want more for themselves and less for everybody else. But I’ll tell you what they don’t want—they don’t want a population of citizens capable of critical thinking. They don’t want well informed, well educated people capable of critical thinking. They’re not interested in that. That doesn’t help them. That’s against their interest. You know something, they don’t want people that are smart enough to sit around their kitchen table and figure out how badly they’re getting fucked by a system that threw them overboard 30 fucking years ago.

It’s a big club and you ain’t in it! You and I are not in the Big Club. By the way, it’s the same big club they use to beat you in the head with all day long when they tell you what to believe. All day long beating you over the head with their media telling you what to believe, what to think and what to buy. The table is tilted folks, the game is rigged. And nobody seems to notice, nobody seems to care. That’s what the owners count on, the fact that Americans are and will probably remain willfully ignorant of the big red, white, and blue dick that’s being jammed up their assholes every day. Because the owners of this country know the truth, it’s called the American Dream, because you have to be asleep to believe it.” George Carlin

 

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Fri, 01/18/2013 - 15:43 | 3167200 reTARD
reTARD's picture

Speaking of propaganda... propaganda is in fact the State's most powerful weapon.

Using propaganda, the super few who control and run the State are able to get the overwhelming in number masses to submit to their system of control called “government.” Language was created and skillfully used for a very good reason since the beginning of mankind by those few who dominated over the many others. The word “law” was a substitute for “thief” because all laws which must be “mandated” (created by man) are “exceptions” to the inherently obvious “universal principles” which by nature and logic CAN and MUST apply to every single person. Universal principles like property rights which imply no thief, no murder, no rape, no force are obviously universally applicable to all humans without creating “laws” (exceptions). Universal principles mean equality and thus freedom. Laws are exceptions that allow the law creators and enforcers to violate these very principles. As soon as one creates a law, that automatically creates INEQUALITY. Obviously, those who create and get to enforce the law are automatically elevated above all the others. Everyone should not murder. Good. Except with the State and their laws, governments ARE ALLOWED to murder skillfully using language by replacing with words like “national defense,” “law enforcement,” “public safety.” Thou shall not steal or use force/coercion. Except governments instead use the language of “taxation,” “eminent domain,” “your social contract,” “quantitative easing” (instead of counterfeiting). Instead of allowing individuals to take self-responsibility and be independent, governments breed irresponsibility and dependence. Instead of saying “I will,” governments say “we need to” and use propaganda to breed collectivism while crushing individualism. Today we have a society that worships government. Just go to Washington DC to see all the altars.
Fri, 01/18/2013 - 16:00 | 3167253 zero deception
zero deception's picture

This Jim Quinn tool talks aboiut right in his first sentence about gatherin theh wisdom  of captured charlatans. Right there it makes you wonder if he si not one of the same. I couldn't read it after that. I couldn't read your stuff either retard but you do have some good buzzwords so I'll give the binifit of the doubt. You probably know who your masters are. So your one step ahead of the game. Credit were credit is due.

 

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 16:04 | 3167262 OutLookingIn
OutLookingIn's picture

Keep your head in the sand fool!

All is well. Couldn't be better!

No matter what you think of the messenger (Jim Quinn), shooting him does not alter the message. Unless of course you are one of the ostriche's!

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 16:11 | 3167285 Snakeeyes
Snakeeyes's picture

Sadly, I agree with Mr Quinn. America has declining income (% of GDP), increasing poverty and slowwwwww like Eastern Europe and Greece.

http://confoundedinterest.wordpress.com/2013/01/18/poverty-in-the-usa-an...

You can blames politicians, etc, by Americans have voted for this mess even since Clinton. Say bye bye, America!

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 16:16 | 3167294 ACP
ACP's picture

Of course, none of this will actually affect stocks in the least. AAPL, NFLX, any of the darlings can literally go OUT OF BUSINESS tomorrow and the stock price will rocket sky high via a Fed-funded short squeeze.

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 17:52 | 3167580 lunaticfringe
lunaticfringe's picture

No shit. In all of my years of trading I have never seen anything so fucked up in my life as this market. These fucking banks just manipulate markets higher with all that free cash from the Fed.

 

It's nauseating. And they want everyone on board so they can pull the trap door. 

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 21:06 | 3168063 Dugald
Dugald's picture

Ok, Bye Bye America....Maybe long after I am dead you will rise again, I hope so.....I have enjoyed the show, but the curtain is fast falling, do you have what it takes to stop it in time...I fear not, you have lost your way, the Founding Fathers must be truly ashamed of you, they passed you a flaming torch and yes you did much to  make the flame brighter...sadly, now, it begins to gutter.

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 16:52 | 3167370 zero deception
zero deception's picture

 

OutLookingin so what is your point exactly? Please enligthen me.  Don't think I don't know what 'captured' means in this contexts.

So if your angry that you have spend most of your own life with the lemmings without the prop moorings build on wisdom then all I can say is keep trying but dont expect much enlightnment from Jim Quin. In other words, don't let him use his words to infuse your mind with platitudes and truisms full of vapor low on meaning . Much like mobs beating a drum or waving a flag or torches.

He encites the mob for sure getting lots of his fanboys and girls ripping away wheenver he posts. A real leader of the peeps.

 

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 16:05 | 3167264 bjfish
bjfish's picture

The author is half an idiot. Did you see where he says "75,000 pages of IRS code" ... ?  The actual number is over 1 million pages.

Also, both sides have their deficiencies, but quit being so idiotic ... the iraq war was NOT 'undeclared' or 'unfunded'.  It was approved by the senate 96-1 (Kucinich D (Ohio)), and it was fully funded. There is no one still waiting to be paid. The cost was $100 billion a year for a total of $750 billion (CBO). It ended 2 years ago, and yet we have $ trillion + deficits as far as the eye can see.

As the CBO says, "Our fiscal imbalances are entirely the result of the big 3 entitlements (SS, medicare & medicaid)".  100% of the experts agree.  Anything else is a lie and/or a delusion.

 

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 16:46 | 3167366 bjfish
bjfish's picture

I see that there are just as many misinformed idiots here at ZH as there are among the sheeple that we laugh at.  My post (above) is 100% factual and yet I get junked ?

 

Same exact idiocy I deal w/ every day teaching college econ.

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 17:05 | 3167402 Jim Quinn
Jim Quinn's picture

I feel sorry for any dumbass that has to sit through your University of Phoenix online econ class.

Only a dumbfuck would believe there are 1 million pages in the IRS tax code. You're that dumbfuck.

http://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2011/07/2011-number-of-pages-in-us-tax-code.html

How did you pass the ZH IQ test?

 

 

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 17:10 | 3167423 secret_sam
secret_sam's picture

      the iraq war was NOT 'undeclared' or 'unfunded'.

There was no Iraq war.  There was a military conflict, sure, but not a war.  "War" is a specific act of Congress which was not declared.

The cost of the Iraq war was not part of the budget--that's why some folks think it was "unfunded."

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 18:51 | 3167762 bjfish
bjfish's picture

How many pages?

http://www.trygve.com/taxcode.html    I might'a confused words with pages, but I s'pose confusion is understandable.

And you should all see the U.S. budget for yourselves

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/special/politics/30-years-spending-priorities-federal-budget-2012/

Note:1  Source data is Econ report of the Prez, appendix B-80 81        2) click on budget categories to see 30-yr growth rates & pay attention to military, medicaid, medicare.

The Iraq war has nothing to do with our current and future budget problems. Only fools suggest otherwise.

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 23:14 | 3168299 secret_sam
secret_sam's picture

      The Iraq war has nothing to do with our current and future budget problems.

Eh?  A few trillion in debt DOES have something to do with our budget problems.  We have to pay interest on that, and we even have to consider that interest as applied to future budgets.

Though as Kyle Bass had pointed out, you can take a different perspective by assuming debt doesn't matter.  We can always just inflate it away.  On the other hand, we could also stop paying SocSec and Medicare.

Right?

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 20:32 | 3167998 Joe moneybags
Joe moneybags's picture

BJ, I enjoy your posts.  But because of the orthodoxy here, you will not feel appreciation.  Please do not let the emotional, one-track audience here dissuade you from contributing.

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 21:58 | 3168142 Jim Quinn
Jim Quinn's picture

Congress did not approve a declaration of war as required by the Constitution to invade Iraq.

Kucinich wasn't in the Senate. Good thing you teach economics.

Every dollar spent on the Iraq War was borrowed, therefore, it was unfunded.

The Iraq war costs exceed $1 trillion and continue to accumulate as we pay for the 50,000 wounded vets and continue to pay interest on the debt incurred to fight the war. We still occupy bases in Iraq and maintain the largest most expensive embassy ever built.

Ideologues make me want to vomit.

 

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 15:44 | 3167201 Joebloinvestor
Joebloinvestor's picture

Kudos Tyler.

 

You are 100% correct even when you are wrong.

 

You ought to run for office.

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 15:46 | 3167207 evolutionx
evolutionx's picture

Celente on 2013: Prepare for the worst

+ on weapons

must see

 

video

http://homment.com/jHTBQnDGS4

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 15:46 | 3167210 kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

I predict we will have a Stalinist Kenyan Dictator pretending to be an American citizen.  Oh wait.

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 16:01 | 3167258 kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

... and the Jew York Media will take no notice of his crimes.

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 16:04 | 3167266 Marco
Marco's picture

In Stalinism no one was safe but Stalin, in Keynesianism there is supposed to be full employment at all times ... in the Republicrat state neither of those two are true, the rich get richer and everything else is a sideshow.

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 15:47 | 3167211 Skateboarder
Skateboarder's picture

Holy shit... just skimmed this, as I'm at work. That's an article and a half man, I look forward to reading it when I get home. Thanks for putting this together Jim.

Love the bullet point list. Everything is so damn uncertain now - there are no safe bets, except for PMs, food, protection, and trust in likeminded/rational folk. As we always say.... hedge accordingly. The uncertainty in probability of outcomes is unsettling. One thing seems to be certain though... people will continue to flock to welfare without question. Bothersome...

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 15:51 | 3167212 evolutionx
evolutionx's picture

its better than facebook:

http://homment.com

anonymus, secret, free - publish your text / thougts instantly - no registration

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 18:10 | 3167656 Citxmech
Citxmech's picture

"its better than facebook"

That's a pretty low bar.  Some folks would rather have genital warts than maintain a FB account (the warts are easier to get rid of!).

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 15:48 | 3167216 Jason T
Jason T's picture

CBO estimates interest expense to be $5.89 bilion from 2013-2022.. even if they are right we are fucked.. and they are not going to right..

 

 

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 15:54 | 3167230 kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

Must be a misprint.  They probably mean six billion of those new trillion dollar coins;)

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 16:31 | 3167337 TerminalDebt
TerminalDebt's picture

probably 589 billion

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 18:50 | 3167724 socalbeach
socalbeach's picture

Fed gov interest expense last fiscal year (ending 09-30-2012) was $222.5 billion.

Subtract off Federal Reserve interest rebates of $88.9 billion (calendar year), and you end up with 5% of revenues devoted to net interest expense.

With about $200 billion in new 2013 federal taxes, and the Fed now buying $85 billion/mo in Treasuries and MBS, I wouldn't be surprised if the percentage is even lower this year.

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 15:54 | 3167228 lynnybee
lynnybee's picture

when will the citizens realize that treasonous acts have been commited against the United States of America ?   (not to mention the words looting, scamming, thieving, bond fraud, & murder!)

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 16:08 | 3167274 falak pema
falak pema's picture

By whom O Lynnybee, light up our lantern! So that we might see the light! 

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 18:10 | 3167651 Legolas
Legolas's picture

You are kidding, right?

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 18:57 | 3167781 falak pema
falak pema's picture

need u ask?

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 17:14 | 3167437 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

Well, given it's been nearly 100 years since the coup, I'm not holding my breath!

I blame belief in "citizenship" (whatever that enslavement is supposed to be).

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 17:27 | 3167490 falak pema
falak pema's picture

free radical; what is not conducive to the biological construct! 

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 18:56 | 3167777 knowless
knowless's picture

a compact entered into on your behalf between you and a collective entity by your parents to support the hegemony over codefied use of force over a geographic region.

typically this arrangement has benefits for all parties involved as long as there is common law.

Sat, 01/19/2013 - 09:13 | 3168621 Widowmaker
Widowmaker's picture

Citizen = bagholder.

Doesnt matter how smart, still the loser.

Doesnt matter how much they have, still the loser.

END THE FED!!!

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 15:54 | 3167233 nobusiness
nobusiness's picture

Simpily put it is a comparison between hope and reality.  all of the above list might just happen in 2013.

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 15:54 | 3167235 irie1029
irie1029's picture

I am amazed how stupid most Americans are.  

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 16:27 | 3167328 Zer0head
Zer0head's picture

I share your sentiment and while stupid certainly applies to a good sized portion of the population, they are not the problem as the stupid will always be with us. There is another more important part of the population, a sizable group whose world view is almost a  direct unthinking reflection of the media they consume. This group reveres Jon Stewart or the latest clever tweet by some trendy somewhere. They might not like Oprah but they have a deep seated respect for her.  Members of this group don't necessarily dwell in the blogosphere, but you will find them at your local Starbucks.   Most work for living at good jobs or have chosen to stay home with the brood or at least give that appearance as some Filipino maid is actually doing all the work while mommy dearest is at Yoga class, Pilates and hanging with her other skin and bones chums. 

Dare to try and engage one of this group in a discussion about anything that is even remotely controversial and they will recoil in disgust or respond with a passive aggressive quip gleaned from some headline they read.  Their world view is shallow yet is anchored in a mindset buttressed by the collective of a popular culture fed by the corrupt media.  

I can forgive the stupid but for the intellectually and lazy self aborbed majority, a pox on their houses.

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 16:36 | 3167339 Blankenstein
Blankenstein's picture

I was, but now I don't expect much from the Honey Boo, American Idol watching masses.  I'm not sure if it was the Alex Jones (didn't watch) interview that provoked it, but very recently I've seen negative observations on Federal Reserve policy, our monsterous government debt and the deteriorating economy classified as conspiratorial and crazy.  I find this especially interesting, given that the vast majority of the sheep are brain dead when it comes to math and economics, but feel so strong in their views of the situation. 

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 15:57 | 3167245 otto skorzeny
otto skorzeny's picture

NASCAR,IBM and HP- 3 entities that should be left to die a slow painful death.

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 16:01 | 3167255 orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

It's Europe that's going to trigger market collapse - as surprising as that may sound.

 

Should be within Q1.

 

 

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 16:15 | 3167293 Catch-22
Catch-22's picture

Your name/avatar is about the drink right?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6PXC574lzHA

 

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 16:05 | 3167263 falak pema
falak pema's picture

Wow, the title of this post makes me sing : Ra, Ra, Rasputin, Rasputin, lover of Rusian queen...

Now USa, USa, is like Romanov's Rasputin... I always thought Ben Bernanke looked like Romanov Nicholas II. 

But that is another "fatal" fantasy. 

Jim Quinn is out of his depth I fear...

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 16:13 | 3167289 magpie
magpie's picture

So you do support the Marxist revolutionary narrative...

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 16:28 | 3167314 falak pema
falak pema's picture

I support the contrary. But it includes the demise of the "free market narrative".

Charybdis and Scylla; statism à la Soviet and Capitalism à la Reagan-Thatcher are those two redoutable monsters of social order.  

FDR, Lincoln, Danton and Montesquieu were closer to the truth than either extremity. Sorry but I look at facts not at theoretical fiction. Balance of power and the search for knowledge are the two beacons of human society. Just read History.

And  I believe in a value system that is Human centric and based on balance between Schumpeter's "bottum up ", deductive logic, creative destruction principle and its opposite : the old "top down" elitist philosopher king principle; Alexander and Aristotle combined in "inductive logic". Balance is everyting.

We have to find balance between the destructive forces of individual creativity and the psychorigid forces of despotic, elitist grand designs. Neither is perfect, they are both flawed in the image of simple man and "enlightment demented" Oligarch. 

We are a flawed species, its our desitny. Nothing is perfect in Man.

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 16:28 | 3167332 magpie
magpie's picture

Ha, was pulling your leg a bit, the Czar was allegedly the planets wealthiest landowner...so that got me thinking, who has to be Lenin in that equation ?

Geschichtsphilosophie separated by a thin film from the conspiracy fact and fiction.

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 16:34 | 3167341 falak pema
falak pema's picture

big word to say the philosophy of the historical narrative...lol, I love the german mind construct! 

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 16:41 | 3167356 magpie
magpie's picture

It was only there to fill a void left by certain implausible elements of Christian scripture and not wanting to take all of the natural sciences for granted...and heaven forbid it's not supposed to be a construct - it's the sum total of human rationality looking at itself in the mirror when everything is supposed to be over.

Sat, 01/19/2013 - 02:27 | 3168482 old naughty
old naughty's picture

great exchange, FP and MP...

but if it's over, why still looking at the mirror, 

in fact, why is there still the mirror?

Sat, 01/19/2013 - 01:53 | 3168455 JOYFUL
JOYFUL's picture

Another advocate of 'read[ing] history,' is Mr. Falak, in an era when the sionist Etch-a-Sketch has replaced the book, and communications have replaced capacity for critical thinking...the very tools for accessing knowledge have been corrupted and\or removed by the khazarian kustodians - all of which leaves your instructions to the assembly somewhat akin to suggesting they await an important message to arrive in a bottle...

Alexandria has burned down again, the sionist barbarian has long since past the gates and entered the sanctum, desecrating all of your precious historical narrative and leaving ol skool scholars such as yourself as hopeless antiquitarians mumbling over their trinkets of broken humanistic rosaries with which you seek to invoke the mighty[fallen]gods of 'rationality' and 'balance' tween forces.

Quinn óut of his depth squire? Sorry, it be ye all, faux palladians of quill n quire, who be depthless, mere flotsam and jetsum, ye legacy lectors, in an era of loathsome jetson janissaries shooting fiery drone rockets into every corner of this earth in order to expurgate 'truth terrorists' at the behest of their hebraic hegemonist master-racialist manipulators - whose existence you will deny up to your dying day...for what purpose or reward be known only to your self - another Saruman inveigled by the Dark Lord through the very wisdom he had sought out as anti-dote to Evil.

Eschew the book, and the corrupted word of wormtongues, for the mighty deeds of  warrior kings of our storied past...stories written in the vibrant bloodscript of dna, not the pallid calligraphy of neo-gnostic heresies!

Jimmy has licked em for six with this invocation of the Carlin Critique...which only requires the insertion of the properly-named villains of this piece for completion...Cabbalist Chazarians...there is no other enemy against whom humans need focus their energies in joyous solidarity!

 

 

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 16:13 | 3167287 Bunga Bunga
Bunga Bunga's picture
Fiscal Farce, Failure, Fantasy, & Fornication ... Unicorn Nation!
Fri, 01/18/2013 - 16:13 | 3167291 10mm
10mm's picture

Fuck Jersey,their shore and Police State.

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 16:16 | 3167295 mike.k
mike.k's picture

And that medical device tax, its on revenue itself, not profits. Another hit on small or emerging companies for the benefit of big established ones.

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 16:17 | 3167299 realtick
Fri, 01/18/2013 - 16:26 | 3167320 illyia
illyia's picture

Too many are now telling the truth and have the docs to back up what they say. The right to bear arms on a national scale is evidence of large popular mistrust. The MSM is blatantly avoiding certain stories. The metals moves are ludicrous and the market moves are comic.

Crack Up Boom... Might keep the Sheeple in their seats. Then musical chairs will have them scrambling. Then someone will realize the game is pointless but by then there will only be desperation.

Carlin was right. Get out early.

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 16:34 | 3167343 TerminalDebt
TerminalDebt's picture

Buy Gold guns and silver bullets

and gold members

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 17:06 | 3167405 linrom
linrom's picture

When EBT stop working, all this will go away. Buying more gold and guns will make all this disappear.

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 17:24 | 3167479 100pcDredge
100pcDredge's picture

*MEANWHILE* Somewhere, at the absolute TOP, on a cloud, deep in the heart of The One and Only Trololoheaven a song rings out... hearhear: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sTSA_sWGM44

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 18:11 | 3167657 max2205
max2205's picture

When will the seniors rise up or at least the 50 to 60 year olds?

 

Theres a shit load of those types

 

Oh well

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 19:31 | 3167856 monad
monad's picture

Circling the Drain with George Carlin

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mKQs-jDI7j8

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 19:35 | 3167863 robnume
robnume's picture

This country is dead and doesn't know it. There is no two party system. There is only one oligarchic party which serve the interests of their largest campaign contributors. Sleep now in the fire, U.S. The whole world is the cost of your desire.

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 20:02 | 3167916 blindman
blindman's picture

bravo jim q..
a mechanic i spoke to today asked me
" what kind of man spends a million( billion )
dollars to get a job that pays 100 thousand a year?"
.
i think they refer to that as an "old saw".
.
obviously, that would be our representatives and
political "leadership".
he then followed up with "it doesn't take a harvard
education to figure this out."
no, it does not.
.
keywords: slavery, pimping, money system, fraud.
politics, lying, septic shoveling law.
.
ps. it is much less offensive to enslave an entire
population visa vi a/the money system than it is to
actually claim to own another human being, no?

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 20:26 | 3167974 Radical Marijuana
Radical Marijuana's picture

Good Article!

As things get worse, faster, those more aware of that are no longer so surprised by each shocking increase of that trend ... However, as in the past, I would repeat that Jim Quinn seems to underestimate how bad things really are, because of how much malice aforethought there was behind driving the agenda he accurately described.

I agree with the basic observation that "Their voracious greed will be their downfall."

However, because I believe that there was way more malice aforethought driving these events to happen, I also believe that the "downfall" will be orders of magnitude worse than we can imagine, at the present time. I would also extrapolate that to include many more reasons WHY any actual "resolutions" to that "downfall" should be based on much deeper understanding of the murder system behind the money system, and the role of the death controls in making and maintaining the debt controls.

IF I am right about the greater degree to which the combined money/murder was made and maintained with malice aforethought, then no realistic "solutions" to these runaway problems are possible which avoid those central social facts. The REAL problems are WAY WORSE, and therefore, any REAL solutions far more difficult and dangerous!!!

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 20:53 | 3168019 DavidPierre
DavidPierre's picture

SmokeyQuinn revels in his ignorance!

Or is it his self imposed stupidity?

"...murder system behind the money system..."

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AVY-iQDO8pg

 

9/11 Is the LitmusTest


Fri, 01/18/2013 - 20:33 | 3168000 jplotinus
jplotinus's picture

Jim Quinn is not my favorite pundit. I do agree with him when he predicts that 90% of his predictions will be wrong. That is certainly my impression of his accuracy. I also tire of his ideological bent. Earth to Jim Quinn, we know you are a conservative, free marketeer and that you think your ideology is better than all others. Ok, we get it. Now, give it a rest. Ideology is personal. You made your choice, others made theirs.

That said, this present article contains a lot of useful data. For that reason, it's a worthy read. It is better than most of his recent offerings, by far.

Sat, 01/19/2013 - 11:47 | 3168754 falak pema
falak pema's picture


......The chart above reveals a few truths:

  • The country has been blessed with two of the worst presidents in U.S. history over the last twelve years....
  • Not say this is not true BUT its the system that is corrupt, not the two Caesars in Purple.
  • Its the Pax Americana tradition that has gone from bad to worse since Aldous Huxley day.

Sat, 01/19/2013 - 12:49 | 3168861 JOYFUL
JOYFUL's picture

You're back???

You've got some untended correspondence I do hope you are working on...it's almost sleepytime in my part of the world, so I will be logging off until the morrow...leaving you clear sailing for more parlous parlour tricks of the kind which used to be pawned off a pon us by that other suave majician of making invisible the elephant in the room...(Chindit -whose tragic trajectory of deliberate obfuscation you seem bent upon repeating!)

In the meanwhile, my dear scholarly sir, take note that their are no systemic errors to be assigned blame for corruption...systems are not actors, and the real actors have been busy behind scenes for decades now taking the necessary steps to gut western civilization of all that it values.

One deceased President understood this fact, and was preparing to bring it to full light of day...

"For we are opposed around the world by a monolithic and ruthless conspiracy that relies on covert means for expanding its sphere of influence--on infiltration instead of invasion, on subversion instead of elections, on intimidation instead of free choice, on guerrillas by night instead of armies by day. It is a system which has conscripted vast human and material resources into the building of a tightly knit, highly efficient machine that combines military, diplomatic, intelligence, economic, scientific and political operations(April 27, 1961)

before he was ruthlessly purged from the scene*by the perpetraitors[non sic] who you pretend to preclude the existence of.

Carry on painting in your corner squire!

*and his wife raped and sodomized serially by a Salonikan Sabbattean masquerading as a Greek -a barbaric trophy of victory in their war against the West

Sat, 01/19/2013 - 11:53 | 3168765 MickV
MickV's picture

Until Durden and Quinn acknowledge the ultimate problem-- that Barack Obama is a Usurper, non natural born Citizen, born British, of a British subject father, then they will show themselves to be enablers of the very situation they decry. There is no law, and no Constitution, and no sovereignty, when the President, who is executor of the laws is ineligible. All else is tangenetal. The first step in restoring the Republic is bringing the Usurper domestic enemy Obama to justice. All else is useless whining. Are they willfully blind, or just afraid to publish the truth? Have they been threatened to shut up? Sure major problems existed before Obama, but this is a new level--- the actual muscling in of an ineligible putative POTUS in order to effect the destruction of the Constitution and US Citizen sovereignty. Durden and Quinn are shirking their responsibility as "alternative media", and actually enable the useful idiot MSM to bury the very real constitutional didaster that has occurred.

 

"Thou shalt in any wise set him king over thee, whom the LORD thy God shall choose: one from among thy brethren shalt thou set king over thee: thou mayest not set a stranger over thee, which is not thy brother". Deuteronomy 17:15

Sat, 01/19/2013 - 12:29 | 3168797 JOYFUL
JOYFUL's picture

You're almost there, friend - why stop short of the whole enchilada\big chingastre??!?!

The Phoney Pharaoh is nought but a puppet princeling, put in place by the [money]powerz in order to effect the final phase of their plan to finish America once n for all....

Pharisees they be, and always have been, behind each n every scene of mass genocide and atrocity performed west of the Euphrates River.

Your chosen source has plenty to say about it...

  "And it shall be, when the Lord thy God shall have brought thee into the land which he sware unto thy fathers, to Abraham, to Isaac, and to Jacob, to give thee great and goodly cities, which thou buildedst not, And houses full of all good things, which thou filledst not, and wells digged, which thou diggedst not, vineyards and olive trees, which thou plantedst not; when thou shalt have eaten and be full; [***] Hear, O Israel: Thou art to pass over Jordan this day, to go in to possess nations greater and mightier than thyself, cities great and fenced up to heaven, [***] When the LORD thy God hath cut off the nations, whose land the LORD thy God giveth thee, and thou succeedest them, and dwellest in their cities, and in their houses; [***] But of the cities of these people, which the LORD thy God doth give thee for an inheritance, thou shalt save alive nothing that breatheth"

Like many a Christian before you, you have mistaken to whom this 'God' addresses himself - only too late, it seems will the Christian Zionist community realize that they have worked to fulfill the prophecy of their own expropriation and extermination by the bitter enemies of all the Gentile races!

Barry O is merely a squatter...the true usurpers are the dual citiizend mafiya who placed him there.

Sat, 01/19/2013 - 13:00 | 3168883 MickV
MickV's picture

Obama is the Usurping face of the Usurpers, and is a domestic enemy of We the People.

Sun, 01/20/2013 - 07:36 | 3170337 CJHames
CJHames's picture

I can't imagine why they want to see America disarmed.

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