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VIX Dumps To 13.00 As Stocks Catch Down To Risk

Tyler Durden's picture





 

UPDATE: VIX and SPX have recoupled

 

Given the compression in realized volatility and surge in stocks, it is not totally surprising that spot VIX would see some catch down compression. Sure enough, spot VIX just plunged to 13.00 (for the first time in almost 6 years). Stocks are falling as VIX is falling though - in a convergence from yesterday's gap-open. Longer-date VIX futures are also falling but not as much - implying further debt-ceiling deadline steepeners being laid out.

 

VIX vs SPX...

 

Implied vol has tracked realized vol almost prefectly (lower pane) for the last few weeks...

 


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Fri, 01/18/2013 - 12:05 | Link to Comment fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

VIX the graveyard for falling machette catchers.

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 12:12 | Link to Comment AndrewJackson
AndrewJackson's picture

Couldn't agree with you more on that statement.

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 12:08 | Link to Comment Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

That rubber band will eventually break if you keep pulling on it like that.

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 13:26 | Link to Comment DavidC
DavidC's picture

CD,
lol!

DavidC

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 12:10 | Link to Comment Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Come on Ben push it down to 10...I dare you.

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 12:14 | Link to Comment ekm
ekm's picture

There's almost nothing left to trade.

 

It's either extremely low volatility or extremely high volatility.

No other option.

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 12:24 | Link to Comment francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

Hindu Cow-ville... [one peg from Alfred E Newman-ville]

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 12:39 | Link to Comment Skateboarder
Skateboarder's picture

Straight up slaughterhouse for people just getting into the market thinking 'gee, I should "invest" my money in the stock market.' Some people simply don't understand that markets are no mo. Whatever 'credibility' there was left in trading disappeared with the algos.

On that note... HOW THE HELL IS FB $30!? WTF!

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 12:45 | Link to Comment francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

In the year 2019 ~ FB will still be trading at $30 [by Nexus 6 replicants who do slave labor in the out colonies]... But a few will jump their programming and come back to Earth searching for Tyrell Zuckerberg so they can gouge his eyes out... 

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 12:55 | Link to Comment Skateboarder
Skateboarder's picture

Most pathetic exit strategy ever. We're gonna see the .com 2.0 bust pretty soon here. Nothing to 'innovate' on after this though. Both hardware and software have been stalling for a while now. The exponential thing is flattening out.

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 18:15 | Link to Comment Freddie
Freddie's picture

LOL!  We can hope.  I know a guy who is 50ish who is on there.  There are loads of women that are late 30s to early 50s all trying to be celebs and reality "stars."   It is incredibly weird and disturbing.  I think they are replicants.

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 12:16 | Link to Comment Mark Carney
Mark Carney's picture

"I'll see your 10, and raise you to 9!"

-Drahgi

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 12:17 | Link to Comment Dark Meadowlark
Dark Meadowlark's picture

To be expected. We are in, say it with me now, an ECONOMIC RECOVERT! EVERY metric of economic measurement is showing RECOVERY not collapse. I don't understand the overall bearishness and hatred towards economic policy makers on this website. 

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 12:30 | Link to Comment pods
pods's picture

I tried, I really did. But I keep chortling every time I say Economic Rec.. There I go again.

pods

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 12:51 | Link to Comment Osmium
Osmium's picture

I’ll believe in a recovery when I see the labor participation rate start to improve.

 

http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300000

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 12:19 | Link to Comment pragmatic hobo
pragmatic hobo's picture

vix at 13 ... looks like a chance to pick up some otm vix calls ...

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 12:19 | Link to Comment Xibalba
Xibalba's picture

We're saved!

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 12:20 | Link to Comment Jason T
Jason T's picture

Per Armstrong:

 

The next three weeks will be choppy with the primary targets being the weeks of 01/28, 02/11, and 03/11. We have Weekly Bullish Reversals at 1365810 and 1369790. These define the overhead resistance. The Weekly Bearish start at 1309150. Our Minor Month Bullish Reversal stands at 1333180 while the Majors are 1399470, 1412110,  and 1428000 just above the 2007 high. The Yearly Bullish Reversal still stands at 1333825. This was not elected at the close of 2012 and remains initial resistance during 2013. Major support for 2013 lies at 1102500-1060500 with initial yearly support at 1165500.

The Daily Bearish Reversals at 1330955, 1329335, 1312900, and 1309480. The key days ahead will be 01/23 with high volatility starting 01/24.

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 12:24 | Link to Comment otto skorzeny
otto skorzeny's picture

tvix is going to get another 10-1 split in a few weeks at this rate

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 12:29 | Link to Comment bullmkt
bullmkt's picture

wait,what a plunge! 2 ES points or 0,1%?

does Durden look at ACTUAL charts and not VIX, HYIG  or his "context charts"? The uptrend continues.Buy the the dip:)

Yo Tyler,whens Tha plunge? 

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 12:48 | Link to Comment HelluvaEngineer
HelluvaEngineer's picture

March

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 12:59 | Link to Comment bullmkt
bullmkt's picture

of which year ? this doom and gloomn site suggested the uptrend is over at about ES 1200.Now close to 1500.

"They" may run this mkt months and years while sheep short.

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 13:08 | Link to Comment gjp
gjp's picture

It may be near-suicide to fight the Fed with their infinite printing machine, but it can hardly be called sheep-like.  It is afterall fighting the power, is it not?

Herd following sheep behavior is more the opposite, the cheerleaders lining up behing the kleptocrats even as the real economy dies.

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 18:09 | Link to Comment Freddie
Freddie's picture

Doom gloom choom.

I like the Tyler(s) but their markket calls are starting to look like Whitney Tilson.

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 13:51 | Link to Comment crzyhun
crzyhun's picture

Total VXX surpression!!! How I do not know, but it is like the FEDNY kiteing this market. 

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 14:18 | Link to Comment Ham-bone
Ham-bone's picture

UPDATE UPDATE -

VIX in freefall at 12.50 = nothing to worry about forever and ever

UPDATER -

VIX still collapsing at 12.45...do I hear 12?

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 14:20 | Link to Comment q99x2
q99x2's picture

The ticker that keeps on giving, TVIX from $10,000 to $5.50 in under 3 years

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 14:24 | Link to Comment NEOSERF
NEOSERF's picture

Are you all watching this...amazing...what the eff is going on given the world today?  Talk about death of the stock market which in itself is amazing given that Ben has basically gone all in trying to push savers out of bonds and savings accounts into the market...shocking

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