'Blame The Weather' As UK Heads For Unprecedented Triple-Dip-Recession

Tyler Durden's picture

How many 'dips' before a recession cycle becomes a depression structure? That is likely the question on Carney's mind as he enters his role as top man at the BoE shortly. As The Guardian reports, an unprecedented third slump in four years looms for the UK as shoppers stay at home and vital transport links grind to a halt amid paralyzing weather. As snow blankets much of the nation, it would appear the next round of central bank easing will be to print 'sunshine'. A series of economic releases – including weak trade data, downbeat business surveys and dreary retail sales – have fueled concerns that official figures out this week will show that output fell in the final quarter of last year. Now analysts fear a cold snap in January could lead to another quarter of contraction in Q1. The snow, bitter cold and harsh easterly winds continue to cause widespread disruption to travel by air, road and rail.  "Clearly, the longer that the snow and ice lasts, the greater will be the negative impact on the economy," IHS' Archer added, though we are sure we will hear of the 'broken icicle fallacy' soon enough.

 

Via The Guardian:

...

 

As transport services ground to a halt, Britons were unable to get to shops and restaurants, companies shut down early, construction work was hit, and supply chains were disrupted. Howard Archer, chief European and UK economist at IHS Global Insight, said retailers would be particularly hard hit, as the weather disrupted Saturday's shopping hours.

 

David Tinsley, UK economist at BNP Paribas, said: "The scary thing is that, as the snow falls in London and widespread disruption beckons, we could yet get a drop in first-quarter GDP as well. We would then be in triple-dip territory, albeit for erratic reasons." With the Met Office forecasting snow in parts of the country well into next week, the economic hit could be serious. "Clearly, the longer that the snow and ice lasts, the greater will be the negative impact on the economy," said Archer.

 

The snow, bitter cold and harsh easterly winds continued to cause widespread disruption to travel by air, road and rail on Saturday. Further problems are expected as a blanket of snow falls across the country on Sunday morning in London and the south-east and spreading north throughout the day.

 

...

 

At Heathrow furious passengers vowed to boycott British Airways, the airport and, in some cases, Britain itself.

 

...

 

Some roads, both motorways, major routes and minor roads remained impassable on Saturday. Darron Burness, the AA's head of special operations, said: "With the snow compacting down and turning icy, we're likely to see treacherous driving conditions throughout the weekend. Any fresh snow on top will just add to the problems."

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Aziz's picture

Coming soon: quadruple dip.

SHEEPFUKKER's picture

True, will never call it a depression now will they.

Acet's picture

Dang! They were celebrating some good figures on the tele not two weeks ago and talking about greenshots in the British Economy.

Sure, it was maybe the 3rd or 4th time they were going all hopefull and shit since the crash, but this time I almost believed it ... or maybe not.

Good thing I don't really watch the PropagandaVision anymore.

Thomas's picture

The Great Depression was a quadruple dip.

krispkritter's picture

Be surprised if anyone can afford a single 'dip' in the coming/current US depression. And skip the cone, they just drop it in your hand. 'A scoop of green shoots sir? No, I'll have the O'banana Cream Pie. Fine sir, bend over...' 

andrewp111's picture

I eat my ice cream out of a bowl, topped with hard liquor. Yum Yum.

NewThor's picture

10 Feet of Snow in Russia.

Do you think the Sun messes with Earth's Weather?

Check out the latest of my Sun and Universe videos.

Look to the Heavens and the Stars!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0PrOp-8ZMGg

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K-OworY5R-Y

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WoMw1ojse2Q

 

 

Pinch's picture

Rubbish. Blasts of cold weather are a direct result of global warming.

Listen to the scientist talking here:

http://www.ecoshock.org/downloads/climate2012/ES_Beckwith_LoFi.mp3

Fedaykinx's picture

blasts of hot air from bombastic "experts" will warm the weather right back up, sometime this spring, i'm guessing.

GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Hey dammit.....the sun was in our eyes. There's a definite crosswind. Socialism has never worked......and we're running out of other peoples money.

 

To top it off......we're British. We only have baseball bats to defend ourselves with. No wonder Piers Morgan got the hell out of here.

Manthong's picture

At least the Queen has a vault full of gold to fall back on if things get tough.

Those poor Germans, though..

unknownknowns's picture

 

 

But one must say clearly that we redistribute de facto the world’s wealth by climate policy…One has to free oneself from the illusion that international climate policy is environmental policy any more.

—Ottmar Edenhofer, Co-chair of IPCC WG III, New American, Nov. 19, 2010

TheFourthStooge-ing's picture

Blame the dips for America's quadruple dip recession: Obama, Krugman, Timmah Jeethner, and the Ben Bernank.

Acet's picture

I suspect we're going to beat that specific record.

Not only has nothing been done to eliminate the mountain of debt we're under, but also there are actually no sources of growth in the Western World to get us out of this hole like last time, quite the contrary: manufacturing has mostly been sent to the Far East, we've reached peak energy under the current technology and we've exhausted most of our mineral wealth.

I reckon that we are seeing now is more akin to the Fall of the Roman Empire (which saw social and technological devolution in the so called Dark Ages in Europe) and the Great Depression will look like a little blip next to it.

 

TruthInSunshine's picture

The Bernank has now inflated the largest asset BUBBLES-- consisting of equities, credit/bonds & even particular segments/slices of real estate yet again (think coastal properties or NYC commercial properties of the type likely to be in Blackrock's TBTF portfolio) in terms of the broadest swath of asset classes & also in terms of transaction prices relative to FMV (i.e. we're at nosebleed level over-pricing, here), since the "roaring 20s," and arguably even more so.

It's a helluva neat trick to get equities AND bonds both to nosebleed levels, simultaneously; say what you will about The Bernank, but he went whole hog and neck deep into the Fed's "tool box" to make that incredible trickery happen, committed anti-free market central planner that he is.

The problem with this type of bubble re-flation strategy via the warp speed printers is that the only ones that can participate, this time, are those intimately tied in with Treasury & the New York Branch of the Fed (I'm not saying blowing bubbles is a sound economic/monetary policy, because it's not; I'm saying that Bernank's latest bubble blowing has virtually no "trickle down" affect as the dot.com & housing bubbles did - at least temporarily, to act as a band-aid to disguise the decimation of the economic foundation that had happened during the prior years, by providing cash flow and jobs, however "transient," to tens of millions of Americans who worked in sectors that benefited from those bubbles).

It's not hyperbole to claim that we're now precisely at one of those moments in history where we can say that our economy rests on pillars of salt & pillars of sand, and the fundamental foundation has rotted and continues to rot away (i.e. diminishing aggregate demand, diminishing need for human labor, lack of true price discovery, loss of faith in fiat & official monetary policy carried out, in part, via open & broadcasted fiat manipulation, etc.).

We're at the end of real economic growth & in a tailspin of shrinking aggregate demand/consumption.

No one knows the sequence of events that will transpire in the days, months and years ahead, but I'm in the clear minority by proclaiming a SWAG that central fractional reserve banks not only won't be able to induce significant inflation on a sustainable basis, but that they will not be able to stem a tsunami of real deflation that will be inevitably be part & parcel of the human condition finding new, innovative and adaptive ways to curb its collective demand for and consumption of goods and services (as just one of hundreds, if not thousands, of examples of this, consider that the demand for gasoline is considered relatively inflexible, yet Americans are driving fewer miles per driver than at any time in the last 30 years-- which has now prompted many state legislators to push for higher registration fees, rather than gasoline taxes, as a way to gin up revenue).

I don't mind anyone vehemently disagreeing with my opinion (or SWAG) about the deflation/inflation odds over the longer-ish time frame, and actually invite composed rebuttals to it, which would inevitably need to address how the Bernank (and his central bank co-horts) are not already "pushing on strings."

Tinky's picture

Speaking of SWAG, it reminds me of my favorite Will Ferrell quote:

 

"I hate it when I forget to turn my swag off at night and wake up covered in bitches."

 

 

 


 

Tango in the Blight's picture

It was probably not called a depression at the time either. These labels usually are applied afterwards. The current gfc will no doubt be named a depression by historians.

I think I need to buy a gun's picture

harbaugh brothers in super bowl

Eireann go Brach's picture

Dear travelers, what the fuck are you doing traveling to Britain in the winter anyway, you deserve to get stuck in an airport for a few days for being so fucking stupid!

F. Bastiat's picture

The primitive superstitions of "socialism" have a tendency to do that.

Like it or not, the blueprint for civilization is Christianity.

gwar5's picture

Niall Ferguson calls the Protestant work ethic one of his 6 'Killer Apps" that moved civilization forward these last 500 years. It provides the moral fabric and trust that glues the other 'apps' together in a free market system to make it all work.

 

Buddism, Hinduism are also fascinating and produced great cultures for hundreds of years.

 

 

 

 

awakening's picture

'Like it or not, the blueprint for civilization is Christianity.'

False, Egyptian Pharoahs predate Jebus (that christian manuscript has that spelling in a few newer printed editions, and as it is the book of god can only be accurate since god can not be fallable) by at least 2000 years - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Menes

79's picture

All the Egyptians ever did was stack rocks :)

awakening's picture

LOL :)

Constructing them would be an ironic form of punishment for ponzi schemers.

apberusdisvet's picture

Global Fucking Warming is certainly real

 

OR NOT

 

FUCK YOU  GLOBALIST CARBON TAX DEBT ENSLAVERS

nmewn's picture

lol...the globalist hysterics call this cold/hot/wet/dry anomaly AGW now, we know it as weather ;-)

Accounting101's picture

The drought conditions covering 80% of the contiguous US costing $35 billion is just weather. Got it. Everything is just fine.

nmewn's picture

The contiguous US is global?...mkay.

I'm gonna guess geography wasn't your major.

andrewp111's picture

The 1930s had its dust bowl as well. There are cycles to both weather and boom/bust. Some of them might even coincide.

knukles's picture

And, once upon a time it appears from historical record as virtually and uniformly enshrined in lore, that there were extinction events that fucked over lots and lots of stuff long before modern men even had shown up.
And will happen again sure as shit and not a damned thing we can do about it.
You see, the universe, mother nature and her god are bigger then mankind.
So we might as well get used to it.
We can also bet soundly that our fearless leaders will fuck things up before then anyhow.
Eat, copulate and be merry for tomorrow we may be cinders.

nmewn's picture

Thank goodness I finally got my collection of old shirt buttons categorized!

Pinch's picture

To all the science-deniers claiming this cold weather disproves global warming, please listen to the podcast I link in my comment above (about 10 comments up).

nmewn's picture

Could you save me some time?

Does it have anything in there about why "climate scientists" feel compelled to manipulate, distort and delete climate data that doesn't conform to their preconceptions & modeling?

TIA

Accounting101's picture

I know right! Those polar ice caps melting and the bizarre weather throughout the world are not really happening. It's just Obama playing Jedi mind tricks on us. Come on you damn rube! Snow storms don't disprove global temperatures rising.

Being Free's picture

Snow storms don't disprove global temperatures rising

Your right, but flat line global temperatures for more than a decade do.  The UN climate models are just as good as Benny's economic models.

CAGW is the second biggest scam the sheeple ever swalowed.

akak's picture

Perhaps you can explain, then, why the Greenland ice sheet, and glaciers worldwide, continue to melt back, thin and retreat --- and not only melt and retreat, but have that rate of melting and retreating actually accelerate.

(Melting) ice does not lie.

Harbanger's picture

I know Greenland was once green.

akak's picture

Greenland is today about as "green" as it was when the Norse first settled there, circa 980 AD, during the Medieval Warm Period preceding the Little Ice Age. Then and now, it's only green on (some of) the coastal fringe, though.

Harbanger's picture

Thats the point, there have been global warm periods before, mostly caused by solar activity.  I'm not saying that we should not be stewards of our environment, the problem is the UN and globalists have coopted the cause and are using it for their own purposes. 

nmewn's picture

Precisely...and the Norse didn't get there in an SUV.

And "climate scientists" along with their government sponsors know all of this (or should) so it is something else. If it wasn't, they would have been conference calling instead flying around the globe in carbon belching jets...to places like Bali...and Cancun...gorging themselves on shrimp and filet mignon.

To the observant these taxpayer funded junkets also provided something else, their arrival (scheduled well in advance) was usually met with an unseasonable chill.

Proving once again that "something" has an incredible sense of humor ;-)

gwar5's picture

You're grossly overstating global glacier melt by a wide wide margin.

 

However, NYC was under a mile of ice a mere 10,000 years ago and the ice melted without any SUVs to blame. But I would still gladly ride a bike for the rest of my life if you promise me it would all come back tomorrow while Bloomberg is still mayor. 

 

 

 

 

akak's picture

"Overstating global glacier melt"?

Is that why glaciers worldwide are not only at historic minimums (or gone altogether), and at their smallest/thinnest/least advanced since the end of the last ice age, but shrinking at a rate unprecedented in the last 10,000 years?

This is science, all you deniers of facts ---- it is NOT my opinion, or open to debate.  Why all the downarrows for merely stating observable facts?  I find the closed-mindedness of some of you on this topic not only extreme, but extremely disturbing.

 

PS:  Just because I point out some obvious and undeniable scientific facts does not mean that I am in bed with Al Gore.

Fedaykinx's picture

problem is you have seemingly bought into the idea that it's obvious and undeniable.  it's not that simple, and frankly saying that science is "not up for debate..."  c'mon....

http://theresilientearth.com/?q=content/nasa-satellite-debunks-melting-g...

BailoutBandit's picture

Accounting 101 is correct. Of all the conspiracies fucking up this planet, the international cartel of climatologists is not one. Get your head out of your ass and learn some science.

nmewn's picture

So you're suggesting that the "climatologists" go bang on China's door instead of ours and say stop that!

Good luck with that.

knukles's picture

The American Climatological Association is requesting additional funding for bath salt research.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9U4Ha9HQvMo

 

nmewn's picture

ROTFL!!!...with tears in my eyes.

No urban campers had their faces eaten off in the production of this bullshit...back to you!