'Blame The Weather' As UK Heads For Unprecedented Triple-Dip-Recession

Tyler Durden's picture




 

How many 'dips' before a recession cycle becomes a depression structure? That is likely the question on Carney's mind as he enters his role as top man at the BoE shortly. As The Guardian reports, an unprecedented third slump in four years looms for the UK as shoppers stay at home and vital transport links grind to a halt amid paralyzing weather. As snow blankets much of the nation, it would appear the next round of central bank easing will be to print 'sunshine'. A series of economic releases – including weak trade data, downbeat business surveys and dreary retail sales – have fueled concerns that official figures out this week will show that output fell in the final quarter of last year. Now analysts fear a cold snap in January could lead to another quarter of contraction in Q1. The snow, bitter cold and harsh easterly winds continue to cause widespread disruption to travel by air, road and rail.  "Clearly, the longer that the snow and ice lasts, the greater will be the negative impact on the economy," IHS' Archer added, though we are sure we will hear of the 'broken icicle fallacy' soon enough.

 

Via The Guardian:

...

 

As transport services ground to a halt, Britons were unable to get to shops and restaurants, companies shut down early, construction work was hit, and supply chains were disrupted. Howard Archer, chief European and UK economist at IHS Global Insight, said retailers would be particularly hard hit, as the weather disrupted Saturday's shopping hours.

 

David Tinsley, UK economist at BNP Paribas, said: "The scary thing is that, as the snow falls in London and widespread disruption beckons, we could yet get a drop in first-quarter GDP as well. We would then be in triple-dip territory, albeit for erratic reasons." With the Met Office forecasting snow in parts of the country well into next week, the economic hit could be serious. "Clearly, the longer that the snow and ice lasts, the greater will be the negative impact on the economy," said Archer.

 

The snow, bitter cold and harsh easterly winds continued to cause widespread disruption to travel by air, road and rail on Saturday. Further problems are expected as a blanket of snow falls across the country on Sunday morning in London and the south-east and spreading north throughout the day.

 

...

 

At Heathrow furious passengers vowed to boycott British Airways, the airport and, in some cases, Britain itself.

 

...

 

Some roads, both motorways, major routes and minor roads remained impassable on Saturday. Darron Burness, the AA's head of special operations, said: "With the snow compacting down and turning icy, we're likely to see treacherous driving conditions throughout the weekend. Any fresh snow on top will just add to the problems."

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Mon, 01/21/2013 - 01:20 | 3172045 gwar5
gwar5's picture

Neither of you know anything.

 

East Anglia Univ., et.al, lied and got caught redhanded, and admitted it. They are no longer legitimate scientists or climatologists, they were outed as computer skewers hiding the decline. Some of their 'peer reviewed data' were actually found to be Sherpa guide anecdotes lifted from travel magazines.  Is only much much worse from there....

Bitter Clingers should be happy Doomsday was called off in 2009 and planet is safe. Was only a willful misdiagnosis from quacks trying to harvest healthy kidneys. 

 

Mon, 01/21/2013 - 00:51 | 3172018 gwar5
gwar5's picture

Antarctica has had record cold for 6 years running. Massive Eastern shelf dwarfs the Western shelf, where alarmists like to show pictures of glaciers naturally breaking off. Elsewhere, US makes up only 1.6% of Earths surface; and, there's been no global warming for 16 years. China, record cold.

 

In 1988 globalists removed 75% of global temperature readings from the data calculations, but mostly, all were from the cold stations. Then in 1989, without accounting for the removal of cold readings, Viola! Global warming was announced! Did they reallly think no one would notice?  A mere 10 years earlier, in 1979, the same freaks said they had to cover the polar regions with soot to prevent a new Ice Age.

There's been no warming for so long the freaks are now actually going back, manipulating the recent historical data to make it look colder, so the last 16 years will look hotter. Same shit they did to try and airbrush away the Medieval Warming Period 950-1350 A.D. Of course, the Vikings knew very well it got warmer, because the break in sea ice allowed them to sail South and invade Europe.

AGW is just another massive fraud and crime against humanity like LIBOR.

 

 

 

Mon, 01/21/2013 - 07:17 | 3172282 zedder
zedder's picture

Tell that to the people of Sydney Australia, who just had a 46 C day. The highest recorded in 200 years of recorded temps. And go to Richard Muller's site, funded by the Koch brothers (the world's leading sceptics) where you can see all the data, all the methodology and understand all the conclusions. Their is antropenic warming.  It ain't rocket science. The earth is warming because of humans. Real simple. BTW I get sick and tired of sceptics falsely claim that the world's temp has flat lined for the last 10 years. That is incorrect. 2010 was the hottest year on record.

Mon, 01/21/2013 - 07:45 | 3172295 Fedaykinx
Fedaykinx's picture

yawn.  anthropogenic.  i get sick and tired of people getting sick and tired.  so there.

 

http://www.climatedepot.com/a/9435/Oh-My-2010-tied-for-hottest-year-Rela...

Mon, 01/21/2013 - 11:07 | 3172642 joego1
joego1's picture

And so the 60 bazillion tons is assorted shit we pump into the atmosphere do absolulely nothing that effects the weather?

Mon, 01/21/2013 - 13:57 | 3173198 Fedaykinx
Fedaykinx's picture

i'm totally concerned.  soon as you get china on board get back to us.

Mon, 01/21/2013 - 08:02 | 3172306 JiminGA
JiminGA's picture

Your "facts" are simply wrong.  HuffPo misses you.

Mon, 01/21/2013 - 08:04 | 3172310 awakening
awakening's picture

'Tell that to the people of Sydney Australia, who just had a 46 C day'

Meh, try a minimum of 3 days at 40+ degres Celcius, not that I am complaining that much because we had fair warning that Australia is a sunburnt land of droughts and flooding rains (to paraphrase a famous Australian poem).

Mon, 01/21/2013 - 03:43 | 3172198 Floodmaster
Floodmaster's picture

Too much infowars freaks on this site ...

Mon, 01/21/2013 - 19:53 | 3174108 Mentaliusanything
Mentaliusanything's picture

Its Not a "Carbon Tax" its a tax on life... so say this carbon based lifeform.

They finally found a way to tax the Air we breathe.

Sun, 01/20/2013 - 22:26 | 3171682 Son of Loki
Son of Loki's picture

There is no "weather" in the UK. Only rain and cold.

 

I once lived in York near the Uni for 3 months...I loved the people...hated the weather. The folks are extremely Stoic if not Spartan-like. It was freezing with 15 mph winds, ice etc and my British friend tells me," Better throw on a jumper, it's nippy outside today."

Sun, 01/20/2013 - 22:27 | 3171700 samwell
samwell's picture

Al Whore:  "Snow will be a thing of the past".  move along now serfs, I've got carbon credits to sell!

Sun, 01/20/2013 - 22:34 | 3171721 nmewn
nmewn's picture

"And the sea laughed at me!"-King Canute...lol.

Mon, 01/21/2013 - 07:46 | 3172296 Fedaykinx
Fedaykinx's picture

great quote.  humans are all so wrapped up in their own perceived importance.

Mon, 01/21/2013 - 10:36 | 3172557 GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

must be what makes them so incredibly willing to suspend their rational functions and avoid solving their long-term problems while they focus on what kind of SUV to buy.

Mon, 01/21/2013 - 13:58 | 3173207 Fedaykinx
Fedaykinx's picture

i think a lot of people are more worried about what kind of rifle to buy right now.

Mon, 01/21/2013 - 01:24 | 3172053 Son of Loki
Son of Loki's picture

Snow is expected to blanket the UK for the next week, with no end to the freezing conditions in sight.

 

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/jan/20/snow-britain-big-freeze

 

Airlines are gonna have a dismal year looks like wiht the ice, snow and broken Dreamliners.

Sun, 01/20/2013 - 22:20 | 3171686 ekm
ekm's picture

At least they have the guts to call it the way it is: CONTRACTION.

 

How about USA? Welcome to recovery?

Sun, 01/20/2013 - 23:53 | 3171890 knukles
knukles's picture

Fucking Booming as per CNBS, Timmah, et al.

Mon, 01/21/2013 - 00:16 | 3171944 yogibear
yogibear's picture

To boost profits companies shrink package sizes and maintain prices. The US consumer is getting slammed with inflation and doesn't even realize it.

In the meantime the government reports low inflation.

 

Sun, 01/20/2013 - 22:22 | 3171693 booboo
booboo's picture

Non consuming consumers scare the shit out of the these blokes, this could only mean one thing by the twisted standards of todays econodopes, a non consuming household is a terrorist cell, round em up and let MI6 beat their feet with canes till they spend.

Sun, 01/20/2013 - 22:23 | 3171695 yogibear
yogibear's picture

CNBS: It's Hurricane Sandy.

Sun, 01/20/2013 - 22:29 | 3171704 Acet
Acet's picture

It's frigging amazing how most of the UK is inadequately prepared to what is hardly unusual weather this time of the year.

They have salt to put on main streets and such, but things like airports and trains will grind to a standstill from the smallest things. A couple of years ago, trains stopped running at some point during Autumn because - get this - there were to many leafs in the tracks!

I blame it on British management - shot from the hip, incompetent assholes who will cut everything down to the thinest margin to pad up their bonuses while never preparing for the unforseen. Many great things in this place, most of them spoiled by the greedy incompetent assholes that run things around here.

And this is why this country has been going down the shitter for the last couple of decades.

Sun, 01/20/2013 - 23:58 | 3171898 knukles
knukles's picture

When I lived in the UK in the 60's long before mega bonuses everything was fucked up due to bureaucracy, regulations, work rules and the like.
Nobody really gave two shits.

The chickies were a hoot if you could get past the home dentistry

http://search.yahoo.com/search?p=teeth+work&ei=UTF-8&fr=moz35

Mon, 01/21/2013 - 01:44 | 3172080 Bazza McKenzie
Bazza McKenzie's picture

The British Met Office has been preaching AGW for decades and assuring everyone that this weather cannot happen, that it is just a distant memory.  So all the government offices are run by people who believe Britain will never be blighted by cold weather, despite the fact it occurs most years.  Net result is they have no preparation to cope with the cold and anyone who attempts to prepare is lambasted as an idiot who does not accept the AGW religion.

Mon, 01/21/2013 - 08:01 | 3172289 Shigure
Shigure's picture

Remember when the trains didn't run because it was "the wrong type of snow"?

Panic buying hits supermarkets:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/topics/weather/9810245/UK-snow-panic-buying-h...

"Shopper Rhiannon Griffiths, 38, said: "It was a real scrum - people were grabbing loaves and milk and dashing to the tills.

"I managed to get two small loaves and some pitta breads - but that was all that was left."

Edit: These retailers were busy though

Mon, 01/21/2013 - 10:36 | 3172560 GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

Well let's hope they can invest those short-term profits and make enough to cover their stores being empty for the next week.

Sun, 01/20/2013 - 22:33 | 3171716 samwell
samwell's picture

And golly gee, look at the "house" prices in London:up 3.6% mo/mo and and 9.7% yr./yr. thanks to our good old monetarist supply side friends at your neighborhood Zionist controlled central bank.  the misallocation of capital is truly amazing and what is more is that these Zionazi fascist bankers will tout this as evidence of a strong economy.  strong for who?  British middle class? or is it massively tilted towards the bankster class?  I would venture to guess that the mansions are appreciating very rapidly and dragging all other housing along for the ride.  God bless the banksters, they never saw a depression they didn't think they could handle with a little bit of the people's money.

Sun, 01/20/2013 - 22:39 | 3171726 Acet
Acet's picture

Nah - it's all those wealthy Greeks and Frenchies (not to mention all sorts of corrupt heads of states from the less salobrious parts of the world) trying to hide their money from their national authorities. They're the ones that have been pumping up the housing market (mostly at the high-end).

Also, London was the main beneficiary of the £1.4 trillion bank bailout. Most of the banks are here so that's were most of the money ended in. The rest of the country is hurting a lot more, even if the BoE has done all it can to prop-up house prices (thus extending the bubble and pretty much guaranteeing that this country will be in the shit for a long, long time).

Mon, 01/21/2013 - 06:47 | 3172274 reload
reload's picture

London is not representative of the UK as a whole - for exactly the reasons already stated. It is the first and only recipient of freshly printed money and it also plays host (on favaourable tax terms) to a lot of money freshly stolen from elsewhere in the world. Outside London, even within banker commuting range (say 50-70 miles or an hour on a train direct to the city) property prices are stuck. The top end is not bid, the same houses remain unsold for a long time - over 12 months in many cases. Either the vendors are asking unrealistic money, or there are just no bids. I think it is the latter, everybody is hurting. How the big UK house builders had such a huge run up in their share prices last year is a mystery to me, selling anything at all is difficult. Even those who could in theory trade up are thinking `how safe is my job?` and staying put. All but the top 1% of 60+ year olds have shut their wallets due to ZIRP. They are just as angry with the government and banks as the small business owners who are unable to renew credit lines on terms that enable their businesses to survive - let alone prosper. The country is being bled dry in the name of rebuilding bank ballance sheets. Meanwhile hardly a month passes without a new `miss selling` scandal involving the bailed out banks, once cought with their hand in their customers pockets they pay a small fine and pretend to be sorry while admitting no wrong doing. No criminal prosecutions or commercial sanctions that hurt are ever forthcoming. But the poulation at large is becoming concious of damage caused and immunity from consequence that the banks enjoy. Until there are seriously negative consequences for individuals and institutions who are currently so obviously above the law there will be no recovery because there will be insufficient confidence.

Sun, 01/20/2013 - 22:33 | 3171717 americanspirit
americanspirit's picture

Peas porridge hot, peas porridge cold, peas porridge in the pot, nine days old.

The good old days are here again.

Sun, 01/20/2013 - 22:49 | 3171752 skank
Sun, 01/20/2013 - 22:56 | 3171764 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

It appears that Russia is getting a double dose of anthro, arthro, fuggit, global warming as well.

Sun, 01/20/2013 - 23:31 | 3171849 q99x2
q99x2's picture

My Ex got frost bite in the rafters of a southern California garage already this year. That caused her to fall 7 feet to the garage floor. But rather than chance getting tangled and stuck in the ladder on the way down she jumped straight back and landed on her feet. She said she is not going to let Al Gore kill her.

Mon, 01/21/2013 - 00:00 | 3171900 knukles
knukles's picture

An unintended consequence of Reagan closing the nut houses.

Mon, 01/21/2013 - 10:39 | 3172574 GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

Are you gonna eat that ketchup?

Reagan true story: he would take a helicopter to their Paciic Palisades pad after posing for a photo-op with a horse because he was afraid to ride; talk about a brokeback cowboy.

Sun, 01/20/2013 - 22:56 | 3171766 Cabreado
Cabreado's picture

One might think the weather doesn't impact the real state of an economy.

"How many 'dips' before a recession cycle becomes a depression structure?"

"Recession" vs "depression" doesn't mean anything, other than in the manipulative heads and hands of those who pretend otherwise.

There is no structure.

There are fumes.

 

 

 

Sun, 01/20/2013 - 23:16 | 3171814 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

this was an oldie but a goodie: http://seekingalpha.com/article/180623-economic-double-dip-try-a-triple i would look VERY close at the far left corner of the first chart showing just how ferocious that second leg down was in the 1930's. It's never really been explained well actually...although the commonly accepted view is that FDR's New Deal programs really weren't working at all and this induced a gut wrenching and MASSIVE second leg down....a "leg" that wouldn't be cured until well into the 60's i might add. Simply put "you can't understand the USA's post World War II actions without looking at the Great Depression first." A good argument can be made that the USA never really recovered until the 1980's when the USA really did have a massive boom in private sector job growth (and hopefully we are on the cusp of an even far greater one right now.) If i were Europe and the euro-centered London I would also be taking a good hard look at Japan "post bubble" as well. Classic "trappings of mercantilism" issue. The USA has ALWAYS been about the creation of internal demand. This country has NEVER had an export led recovery...not because the USA doesn't produce amazing stuff (indeed it does...most amazing stuff in the world in my view) but because the ability to making pricing "stick" is next to impossible in the American economy. it is for lack of a better term "too productive." with the EU now following Japan into the USA to "create demand" i think they will be shocked at just how ferociously competitive it is over here. "Bring your A Game" cuz if GM produced 90 million chevy small block V8's "they aim to beat that record with the Chevy Volt engine platform." oh, and "Ford want's to break that record first" i might add...

Sun, 01/20/2013 - 23:13 | 3171801 caimen garou
caimen garou's picture

Ah, the good old blame game! every excuse in the book for the failing economies around the world, global warming, did'nt have my coffee, the dog ate my homework. why can't our fearless leaders grow a set and admit that we are in a global financial cluster-fuck!

Sun, 01/20/2013 - 23:18 | 3171820 nmewn
nmewn's picture

They would have to admit they themselves are "subprime"...ain't gonna happen...the beatings will continue until the morale improves ;-)

Sun, 01/20/2013 - 23:16 | 3171813 Ignorance is bliss
Ignorance is bliss's picture

long Gazprom

Sun, 01/20/2013 - 23:17 | 3171819 Intoxicologist
Intoxicologist's picture

How many licks does it take to reach the center of a Tootsie Pop?

 

One, two.....<crunch>, threeee.

Sun, 01/20/2013 - 23:20 | 3171826 nmewn
nmewn's picture

I've found an unfamiliar object in my pocket!

Sun, 01/20/2013 - 23:18 | 3171823 andrewp111
andrewp111's picture

Dips from weather are cyclical and self-correcting. Eventually, the spring arrives, the snow melts, and all those starved shoppers flood into the stores and make up for lost shopping. It is called a seasonal adjustment.

Mon, 01/21/2013 - 00:01 | 3171903 knukles
knukles's picture

Anthropogenic statistical redaction

Sun, 01/20/2013 - 23:24 | 3171841 neutrinoman
neutrinoman's picture

Global warming on a rampage!

Mon, 01/21/2013 - 00:09 | 3171922 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

Global warming fraud strikes again….Hoo ur we tae subverse public minds tae follaw th' carbon tax road? 

 

3MIN News January 20, 2013

 

Mon, 01/21/2013 - 00:10 | 3171927 gwar5
gwar5's picture

Pretty sure USA is in Depression already, and a big leg down is yet to come.  

 

Shadowstats, in real terms: GDP negative since 2006, cumulative > 10% loss of GDP. Unemployment is 14 or 23% (U-6 vs Alt. stats). Real inflation is 6%, or 9.3%, if using 1980 methodology. Sure UK is fudging all their numbers too.

Mon, 01/21/2013 - 01:08 | 3172033 Bansters-in-my-...
Bansters-in-my- feces's picture

ANY weather we get ,period,is Centrally Planned,and delivered to us all via jet tankers and HAARP.

Now eat your peas.

Silly rabbits,any one who has half a brain knows that.

Mon, 01/21/2013 - 01:31 | 3172059 pasttense
pasttense's picture

If there is a temporary slowdown because of the bad weather, there will be a bounceback when the good weather returns. People will restock their pantries for example.

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