Guest Post: Declining Global Growth

Tyler Durden's picture

Via John Aziz of Azizonomics blog,

In an increasingly globalised economy, we need more global data measurement.

The Economist presents a new attempt to measure global GDP. The sub-bars are showing each region’s contribution to global GDP growth, rather than their internal growth rate:


Globally, there was a big and swift return to strong GDP growth, built on the backs of emerging countries and particularly the BRICs. Since early 2010, rather than getting stronger and stronger, global growth has actually become weaker and weaker.

This is quite a departure from certain narratives popular today that suggest that growth has gotten stronger and stronger since the end of the recession, that we are almost out of the woods, and that we are on the cusp of a new era of spectacular growth.

And in a world of globalised trade, globalised lending, and global supply chains the notion that any nation can really be shielded from the ongoing effects of declining global growth seems extremely over-optimistic.

Yet another reason to be highly cautious of the increasingly popular idea that now is the time to turn bullish on American equities. 

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xXJammingXx's picture

As we increase productivity to drive growth, we destroy the demand for labour. We are shooting ourselves in the foot, think about it.

Careless Whisper's picture

The Careless Whisper Sunday News Update & Threadjacking

Spain To Foreigners: Buy A House, Get A Green Card

Judge Let's Peter Madoff Delay Prison To Attend Important Party

Florida Garbage Companies Openly Advertise Kickbacks,0,40816...

Subway Says "Footlong" Is A Trademark, Not A Measurement

FLASHBACK: Subway $5 Footlong Commercial

Grieving Newtown Parent Claims She Needed Background Check To Buy Kitten; Investigator Called Neighbors; Says Easier to Buy Gun (pass the tissue)






otto skorzeny's picture

Madoff at party? don't you mean bat mitzvah(where at the ceremony his grandaughter read an ironic passage from the Torah saying "The suffering of others will not be forgotten"-LOL)-and there we get to the root of the NYC hebe bankster problem. also he'll be staying at a cush Club Fed "prison" in OH-while robbing a bank of $1000 will get you or I (non-12 Tribesman goys) 40 years in a Fed pound-me-in-the-ass prison

francis_sawyer's picture

If you throw your used iPhones at windows & break them... That promotes "global growth"... PLEASE ~ do your duty...

Snakeeyes's picture

Europe is declining and all the liquidity from The Fed and ECB isn't helping. Its a global government spending and borrowing problem that is burning everyone.

Careless Whisper's picture

@ otto

yeah, i forgot to mention that, as well as his lawyer daughter who is also facing criminal charges, and supposedly already forfeited ALL her assets (cough, cough) as the "compliance officer" of madoff enterprises, not to mention the son-in-law former sec something or other.

JR's picture

The Fed’s house of cards is falling… chart by chart. Very important article by Sanders!

“113% increase in Federal Debt held by public since Q2 2008 and a measly 2.57% growth in real GDP.”

This is debt slavery.  We have to quit calling what the Fed does as central planning. The establishment of debt slavery to transfer the wealth of the nation to private hands is hardly economic planning. It’s planned robbery.

“And Wages and Salaries as a percentage of GDP continue to decline.”

This, while the financial sector’s profits as a percentage of all domestic corporate profits once again is nearing the 45.80% reached in December 2001 – after massive risk-taking by the banks whose losses were transferred to  millions of average citizens, forcing many to lose their homes, jobs, savings, pensions, home equity, and more, not to mention inflation.

Anyone who thinks that this private cartel of private bankers, that was established to create money and power for themselves and their friends, is just a group of well-meaning humanitarian fools needs to review the famous Larson cartoon of two dogs -  big dad and sorrowful son - conversing in the dog house.

Says Big Dad to Sorrowful Son:

 “Look.  You had five bones, right?  Your friend Zooky comes over, stays awhile, then leaves.  Now you have four bones, right? …

”You don’t have to be ‘Lassie’ to figure this one out.”

And you don't have to be 'Lassie' to figure our friend Ben out, either.

All Risk No Reward's picture

At what point are we going to stop the bankster controlled Vichy politicians and Vichy media to control our thought processes?

Real GDP (subtracting out debt) hasn't stabilized, it is collapsing and has since 2008.

Does your neighbor have increasing GDP if he takes a 10% pay cut and covers that income loss with credit card debt plus a little extra "growth?"

No.  Neither does the bankster slobbering Vichy government.

Look at the first chart in this link...

That red line shows real GDP ex the unsustainable deficit spending.  It is year over year, so the drops are sequential.

2009: -11%

2010: -12% (off of what was left after the previous 11 % was subtracted)

2011: -8% (off what was left after the -11% and -12% were figured in)

2012: -4% (off what was left after the -11%, -12% and -8% were figured in)

If you want to know why foodstamps are exploding off an all time high, if you want to know why strip malls have empty shops and nearly 10 million homes are empty, this is why.

The monetary system is a fraud.  Criminals are running the show.  They know collapse for the serf class is in the cards, so they've erected the police state and waged war on persoonal liberties.

The brainwashed Republicans allowed Bush to p*ss on civil liberties whilthe Democrats protested.  Now the brainwashed Democrats sit idly by while Obama p*sses all over civil liberties and passes a law that means you only live because he decided not to kill you.

Today.  Not sure about tomorrow.

Break the conditioning.  Read "propaganda" from Edward Bernays (Freud's nephew). has a free download.

Learn the Trivium - the simple method withheld that reveals how it is possible to actually know something vs holding on to a well funded illusion and/or Bernays style propaganda.

The technological elite is here and now.  The "power of money" is truly to be gravely regarded.  Eisenhower's warning is in full effect.

Eisenhower's Technological Elite...

Debt Money Tyranny

Learn the fallacies and REJECT them as the false logic they are.

42 fallacies is a good start:

Son of Loki's picture

Careless Whisper, Spain needs to learn from Cali realtors; advertize and recruit wealthy 'Aliens' (aka, Americans) to buy on their Costa del Sol. Pick them up at the airport and drive them around, show them a good time, feed them some paella and throw in a green Card (and maybe a Spain passport) and I suspect many Americans would jump there (as long as Spain has the zero down mortgages similar to the FHA).

Super Broccoli's picture

not as a shareholder. produce somewhere else, sell somewhere else ... live where you want

Jason T's picture

productivity is sucking ..

"For the second straight year, productivity growth weakened substantially across the globe in 2012, according to a new report from The Conference Board. The 2013 Productivity Brief, based on data from The Conference Board Total Economy Database™, reports that productivity grew by 1.8 percent worldwide in 2012, down from 2.3 percent in 2011 and 3.6 percent in 2010. With the exception of the 2008–9 recession, this represents the slowest productivity growth in a decade. "

Mike in GA's picture

I had to junk you on that one Accountant...Jamming merely mentioned 3 facts. If you disagree with the facts, ok, I understand, but to label another commenter with a disparaging name is shooting the messenger.

All Risk No Reward's picture

It seems to me that Biggest Finance Capital had their Vichy government structure the tax laws to make it highly profitable to offshore 10 million jobs to dictator controlled, slave labor China.

Oh, and they knew they were doing this, hence they went to their Vichy Liberal Establishement and made student loans non dischargeable in bankruptcy.

The Vichy Republican Establishment played to their master's drum beat as well.

Debt based money is a fraud.  It transfers all the economic power to the money creators (Owners and controllers of the multination mega-banks and other multi-national interests...  Monsanto, Exxon, Mobile, British Petroleum, Haliburton, etc....) and Federal Reserve controllers.

They lend us $20 @ 5%, we owe $21 in a year, BUT WE DON'T HAVE IT UNLESS THEY **CHOOSE* TO GIVE IT TO US.

Even if they CHOOSE to give it to us, it is still debt with the same problem - we owe more to these criminals than we possess.

Their monetary wealth LITERALLY is society's monetary poverty!

Oh, and a bailout...  well, that's when they create $20, stick it in their pocket and then bill everyone else for $21...  bankrupting us further.

These criminals are bankrupting us in multiple ways:

1. Debt based money

2. Tying their bucket shop derivative losses to the tax payers (profits for them...  you know, because they are so stupid, right?  No, we are stupid.  Their Vichy operatives play stupid so the ignorant won't put 2 and 2 together and realize a crime spee is under way).

3. Waging endless wars against enemies the banksters finance.  Sun Tzu knew this would bankrupt a nation over 2000 years ago.  I have news for you...  bankrupting our ignorant *sses isa feature, not a bug.

4. Offshoring 10 million jobs to dictator controlled slave labor, unlimitted polluter China.  Al Gore likes all that pollution his Apple does over there, now doesn't he?

5. Carbon taxes.  Folks, carbon is tied to energy and energy is tied to the economy.  Gut carbon, bankrupt the economy.

Well, except for the insider multi-nationals that are too big to fail.  They will roll up the Too Small To Saves under their control for pennies on the dollar.  Don't worry, though, they won't change the name on the sign so the average American won't even know what happened.

Debt Money tyranny

Get this Debt Money Tyranny information out.  You won't hear it in the Vichy "media" because anyone who mentions it will never be on the TV to program the masses ever again.

Sudden Debt's picture

and yet, there's more of us every year.
it only means this world can support a lot more humans than they claim the world can.

otto skorzeny's picture

easy-big fella-the jury is still out on that one. this explosive human growth has only happened in the last 150 years(which corresponds almost exactly to world oil production-and that's easily accesible light sweet jedd clampett crude-not 2 miles down in the ocean pain-in-the-ass to get at crude) and that's a millisecond to mother nature.

Popo's picture

Exactly right. Google any graph of world population growth and the graph is terrifying. From prehistory to the early 1800's there's very slow growth. Then about halfway through the 19th century something happens. And in the 20th century everything goes nuts population-wise.

The graph goes vertical at the end, and that's where we are now. It takes one look at that graph to make you realize we're fucked.

We're at peak everything.

Things that go bump's picture

Yes, there is a mother of a black swan in our future.  Disease and starvation usually takes care of over population when a species over reproduces.   

Seer's picture

Fuck, man, we're HUMANS!  Do it in style, use lots of pyrotechnics (war)!

DeliciousSteak's picture

War is a shitty way to control population growth. 20th century was disappointing in this aspect - WW2 was a useless experiment. Bioweapons might do the job without destroying the enviro but they're not that spectacular. Still, I guess it's better than nothing.

Popo's picture

The Black Death was pretty effective.

TBT or not TBT's picture

The Spanish Flu outdid WWI, if you are into that sort of thing.

chubbyjjfong's picture

We are in season 11 of American Idol.  If that doesn't finish us off.. nothing will.

Mike in GA's picture

@Sudden Debt:

yeah, at a lower and lower level...let's see what it looks like in another 50 years.

PUD's picture

Wee don nee no stinkin gdp

GDP is actually a pretty lousy way to measure economic health. Consider that medical/drug spending is a big component of GDP which implies that the sicker a nation is the more prosperous it is.....

We are doomed...simple as that...measure it any way you like

Seer's picture

Catherine Austin Fitts had a metric she called "The Popsicle Index."  I don't recall much of it other than it seemed like a more realistic way to measure how we're doing.

I do, however, believe that we ought to track resource use.  Unlike most animals humans have an ability to forecast things, and being able to see ahead of time the depletion of something allows us to make decisions to alter the future (mostly, however, as a matter of time- eventually the next glacial period will come along and scrub us all clean).

Sean7k's picture

Needs to be superimposed on a chart showing money supply growth. Seems it would show an even greater disparity.

Tango in the Blight's picture

Forget growth pretty soon we will see shortages of food.

I'm pretty skeptical of the alternative farming techniques shown in this 4 yr old beeb docu gaining any traction because most people are too stupid (most believe their food comes from a factory) and our leaders are too corrupt (they want to depopulate the planet anyways and famines and the resulting social unrest are the way forward for that).

Unless something big happens the human race is done for. Stick a fork in it.

otto skorzeny's picture

midwest is bone dry this winter-IL has had 1 inch of snow

Cathartes Aura's picture

best be getting those weather modification experts down from Fargo, sort your skies out!

NoDebt's picture

Yeah and in the North East we've got more rain/precip than we can handle.  I call it "Seattle East" around Philly.

However, back in 2001 we just ended a 10 year long historic drought.  And I mean DRY.  Several summers in a row our well ran dry and we had to shower and wash clothes at our in-laws.  Reservoirs were almost depleted and water rationing rules were in effect (no washing your car, watering your lawn, etc.)

Guess what they blamed it on back then?  Global Warming.  Now we've got more than we can handle..... yep, Global Warming again.

Didn't the Midwest have historic FLOODING just a few years ago?

I wonder if we were heading towards another ice age (as they thought we were back in the 70s) if they would tell us all to go buy big SUVs and drive them around to help increase average global temps.

Seer's picture

That's an excellent documentary/video (I'd seen it quite a while ago).

I have followed intensive grazing discussions (my desire is to be able to do it- whether my land will support it or not) and am a firm believer.  Most of the folks that are doing grass-only have managed to stay afloat during the droughts that have been plaguing most of the US.  A couple of months back the industry was reporting something like a $135/head loss- how in the hell is That supposed to be sustainable?

Anyway, I'm trying what I can to produce food.  My aim is to be able to feed as many people for as long as I can: it's my goal.

Mike in GA's picture

Right on, Seer!  Me too...only no livestock.  I'm thinkin about it though. Are you familiar w/Joel Salatin's success with intensive grazing? 

I think I'll try some no-till, heavy compost tea cultivation this year.  It's supposed to help with drought resistance.

Best of luck to you.

joego1's picture

I like the idea of perma culture.


Bazza McKenzie's picture

The finance sector transfers assets of other sectors to itself.  That transfer of assets is income for the finance sector and used to pay huge salaries and to provide profit for the companies.  The government calculates GDP in a way that counts this transfer of assets as part of GDP - the growing part.

In addition governments, including China, have engaged in deficit funding and money printing to "boost growth".  Since those deficits cannot be repaid and depend on printing new money they are another form of asset stripping from savers, the consequent "GDP growth" is also largely simply a conscription of assets which are being consumed.

Government GDP numbers are in fact a massive lie.  Few countries actually have increasing real income, as opposed to increasing government lies.  For most, real income is declining and has been for years.


bank guy in Brussels's picture

Most everyone is caught in their economic assumptions, usually Austrian or neo-Keynesian, and particularly scorning and bashing Japan with its mega-pile of government debt

But Japan may in fact succeed and be an example for the world, as it goes about applying radical full-force money-supply growth, in line with what a small group of hard-core Monetarists have always held is what works ... and with what historically indeed does seem to work

Japan ... now taking radical steps in the tradition of its early 1930s finance minister, little-known in the West but who may in fact have been one of the most concretely effective government finance ministers ever, until he was murdered by Japanese military officers who later led Japan into war.

Japan is « going for broke on multiple fronts with fiscal, monetary, and exchange stimulus.

This is a near copy of the remarkable experiment in the early 1930s under Korekiyo Takahasi ... the man who "brilliantly rescued" his country from the Great Depression ...

Few dispute that Japan escaped from slump and pioneered the world's most successful policy mix -- in strictly economic terms -- from 1932 to 1936. The trick was to act with overpowering force and combine all forms of stimulus, each leavening the other. ...

Takahasi was the first of his era to tear up rule book completely. He took Japan off gold in December 1931. He ran "Keynesian" budget deficits deliberately, launching a New Deal blitz before Franklin Roosevelt took office.

He compelled the Bank of Japan to monetise debt until the economy was back on its feet. The bonds were later sold to banks to drain liquidity.

He devalued the yen by 60pc against the dollar, and 40pc on a trade-weighted basis. Japan's textile, machinery, and chemical exports swept Asia, ultimately causing the British Empire and India to retaliate with Imperial Preference and all that was to follow -- and there lies the rub, you might say.

Takahasi was assassinated by army officers in 1936 when he tried to tighten by cutting military costs. »

LawsofPhysics's picture

Good luck. If the resources are not available and no one wants your fiat or products, game over. Applies to everyone, but Japan is a rather small island by comparison.

Sean7k's picture

Takahasi was no different than Mussolini or Hitler in their introduction of fascism to the world. The creation of massive debt, corporacracy and imperialism was a potent mix, but it was a one off for THAT TIME PERIOD. Further, that debt eventually showed up and crushed their economies. The degree of debt is different, the global system and willingness of many countries to devalue currencies and the availability of resources, then add in their age factor.

Of course, maybe the Japanese will go ahead and invade Korea, Mongolia and China and it will all work out again. 

TBT or not TBT's picture

They had a lot of young men back then.   Now, not so much.

smacker's picture

Printing to oblivion and creating uncontrollable inflation can hardly be described as a "brilliant rescue". It simply replaces one crises with another.

NoDebt's picture

Never heard of him.  You get an up arrow for that.

Funny how economists from similar eras came to similar conclusions despite being in different areas of the world.  You know somebody was cribbing off somebody else.  Who invented something first and who implemented it first are often two different people.

I'm not sayin' nothin'.  I'm just sayin'.


de3de8's picture

And that my friends is why it will never get fixed.

A Lunatic's picture

At the end of the day the world is a closed system, with little regard for the maniacal whims of Central Banksters........

ramacers's picture

no mystery, flat or declining birth rates.

trav777's picture

flat or declining oil production

Atomizer's picture

We should all be thankful that everyone can be the President. Poor Joe Biden is competing Presidential hair plugs against a new wigger in the White house. Things can’t get any worse.

Darth Rayne's picture

There is enough work for everybody. Lets just all work 2.5 days a week. Let the Govt print its own money and match whatever our employer gives us. There is no need for a government to borrow money from a bank!

Perhaps that's a dumb fuck idea. But so is carrying on with a system that failed in 2007.


Money is a social construct, lets just construct another!

Hint; don't let banks control money.

Then perhaps we will stop government from trying to control us!

Yeah, I know, I am a dumb fuck.

Seer's picture

Government is the crack through which the Powers push through.  Shut the door.  Let's move on.  We've got a lot of work to do in order to be able to support ourselves in a more localized economy.  Just hope that we don't allow ourselves to rape the shit out of the land (look at what folks in Greece are doing).

sitenine's picture

Soon there will be no more growth, and most will say we never saw it coming. Tragic really, because we could be planning instead of trying to piece the old shit back together.