Guest Post: Declining Global Growth

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Via John Aziz of Azizonomics blog,

In an increasingly globalised economy, we need more global data measurement.

The Economist presents a new attempt to measure global GDP. The sub-bars are showing each region’s contribution to global GDP growth, rather than their internal growth rate:

20130119_inc767

Globally, there was a big and swift return to strong GDP growth, built on the backs of emerging countries and particularly the BRICs. Since early 2010, rather than getting stronger and stronger, global growth has actually become weaker and weaker.

This is quite a departure from certain narratives popular today that suggest that growth has gotten stronger and stronger since the end of the recession, that we are almost out of the woods, and that we are on the cusp of a new era of spectacular growth.

And in a world of globalised trade, globalised lending, and global supply chains the notion that any nation can really be shielded from the ongoing effects of declining global growth seems extremely over-optimistic.

Yet another reason to be highly cautious of the increasingly popular idea that now is the time to turn bullish on American equities. 

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Sun, 01/20/2013 - 19:12 | 3171330 The Alarmist
The Alarmist's picture

Just a reversion to the long-term mean.  Growth has been a fairly modern phenomenon.

Sun, 01/20/2013 - 19:20 | 3171337 dolph9
dolph9's picture

There is no such thing as growth.  Never has been, never will be.

Growth is what economists call it when humans take stuff from nature and reshape or consume it for our own ends.  The growth everyone is after is an artifact of burning fossil fuels, and the resulting increase in agricultural production, energy, and thereby population.

But think about it...for growth to continue, there has to be infinite fossil fuels, infinite land, and infinite capacity for the human population to expand.

We are finding out this is not the case, which is why our Ponzi scheme economic system is imploding.  It's our luck to live during this time.

Sun, 01/20/2013 - 21:10 | 3171577 TBT or not TBT
TBT or not TBT's picture

Entropy increases, sure, but ALL LIFE INCREASES ENTROPY, not just human life.   I enjoy converting highly ordered plants and animals inefficiently into ATP and other things I need, and then into poo/pee/CO2, heat of course, and..take a moment to savor it, into this highly ordered blog comment, this very one you are reading.    Not entirely O/T:   Meat is murder, tasty tasty murder.

Mon, 01/21/2013 - 00:26 | 3171974 andrewp111
andrewp111's picture

If the higly misnamed "Cold Fusion" is real (it is neither cold nor fusion), it could provide enough energy for galactic expansion.

Sun, 01/20/2013 - 19:20 | 3171338 Smegley Wanxalot
Smegley Wanxalot's picture

 

 

This global economic growth problem will again be solved once they release the next iPhone.  And some new Air-Jordans.

Sun, 01/20/2013 - 21:02 | 3171560 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

A Sunday night piece 'o fluff....

What, CBs can't print oil??

Wake me up for some real content or controversy....

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