Japan Warns It May Fire On Chinese Aircraft Over Disputed Islands; China Retorts: "There Will Be No Second Shot"

Tyler Durden's picture

A week ago we reported that following what China said was a response to counter "Japanese military aircraft disrupting the routine patrols of Chinese administrative aircraft" over the East China Sea, the world's most populous country (and one which has the largest, 2.25 million strong, standing army) scrambled several jets and put its military on high alert. Now, it is the turn of Japan, and its brand new militant and nationalistic government, to "retaliate" and escalate tensions by one more notch, in the process crashing any hope that Chinese imports of Japanese goods may resume, and obviating the ongoing temporary plunge in the yen (which while doing nothing to boost exports to this 20% trading partner, has made imports so expensive, inflation in the past two months has already soared well above the 2% target for various key goods as previously reported).

Moments ago, Japan says it may fire warning shots and take other measures to keep foreign aircraft from violating its airspace in the latest verbal blast between Tokyo and Beijing that raises concerns that a dispute over hotly contested islands could spin out of control.

AP reports:

Japanese officials made the comments after Chinese fighters tailed its warplanes near the islands recently. The incident is believed to be the first scrambling of Chinese fighters since the tensions began to rise last spring.


According to Chinese media, a pair of J-10 fighters was scrambled after Japanese F-15s began tailing a Chinese surveillance plane near the disputed islands in the East China Sea. China has complained the surveillance flight did not violate Japanese airspace and the F-15s were harassing it.


It was the first time the Chinese media has reported fighters being mobilized to respond to Japanese air force activity in the area and comes amid what Japan says is a rapid intensification of Chinese air force activity around the islands, where Japanese and Chinese coast guard ships have squared off for months.


Though there have been no outright clashes, the increased sea and air operations have fueled worries that the situation could spin out of control.


"Every country has procedures for how to deal with a violation of its territory that continues after multiple cautionary measures," Japanese Defense Minister Itsunori Onodera said on Jan. 16 when asked if tracer shots would be fired against intruding aircraft that refuse to change course. "We have response measures ready that are consistent with global standards."


Onodera said the use of warning shots has long been provided for under Japan's defense policies and is widely accepted under international rules of engagement. Japan's air force has not actually resorted to them since 1987--against a Soviet aircraft--and none were fired last week.


But Chinese and Japanese media have suggested Tokyo is publicly floating the possibility to test China's reaction.

Perhaps it may surprise Japan, but "China's reaction" will hardly be one of a dog retreating with its tail between its legs. In fact, it will likely be quite the opposite.

And the fact that the US has once again stepped in, and is once again on the side of the party that started this whole escalation fiasco (that would be Japan for those who have forgotten), will not help:

The escalation of tensions has worried the United States, with Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton saying on Jan. 18 that while the U.S. doesn't take a position on who has sovereignty over the islands, it opposes "any unilateral actions that would seek to undermine Japanese administration."


That brought a sharp retort from the Chinese Foreign Ministry on Jan. 20. The comments "ignore the facts" that the islands are China's inherent territory, spokesman Qin Gang said in a statement that urged the U.S. to adopt "a responsible attitude."


In Beijing last week, a Foreign Ministry spokesman said China is on "high alert" and suggested Japan is escalating the tensions over the islands, called the Diaoyu in China and the Senkaku in Japan. Taiwan also claims the small isles, which are uninhabited but may be surrounded by valuable underwater natural resources.


"Chinese planes and ships are exercising normal jurisdiction in the waters and airspace surrounding the Diaoyu Islands," spokesman Hong Lei said. "We are opposed to the operations of Japan's planes and ships, which violate our rights around Diaoyu. We are on high alert against this escalation."


As is often the case, Chinese media quoted military academics with a much more fiery response.


"Japan's desire to fire tracer warning shots as a way of frightening the Chinese is nothing but a joke that shows the stupidity, cruelty and failure to understand their own limitations," Maj. Gen. Peng Guangqian of the Chinese Academy of Military Sciences was quoted as saying by the China News Service and other state media.


"Firing tracer bullets is a type of provocation; it's firing the first shot," he said. "Were Japan to dare to fire tracers, which is to say fire the first shot, then China wouldn't stint on responding and not allow them to fire the second shot."

Sounds like a catalyst to double down and buy every ES contract in sight: just think of the GDP boost and appropriate fiscal multiplier once Japan is levelled.

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lolmao500's picture

Keiser predicted civil war in the US by March 2013.

Bass predicted war in Asia.

FEDbuster's picture

No, the recent Keiser Report with Doug Casey as the guest, looked back on the German gold situation and talked about Japan as the epicenter of the Currency Wars.  He may have discussed Civil War with Alex Jones, but he has always maintained that the Yen is more screwed than everyone else due to their two decade head start.

Even though Max is currenly living in the belly of the beast, London.  Where he maintains all financial evil emanates from.

CrimsonAvenger's picture

And Von Helsing went right to where all the vampires were. Your point?

FEDbuster's picture

Max and Stacy are in London to have a front row seat for the collapse.  My guess is they have a bug out bag packed, and a bug out location to escape to when London starts to burn.

mumcard's picture

Max lives in Paris.  He's too busy pimping books about how it all happened.  Could have been useful information 10 years ago.  "You guys go riot and revolt!  I'ma sit here sipping cafe and checking my bank statement..."

He made his money and now he's pointing fingers at the evil banksters and wall streeters? 

AgAu_man's picture

And Casey shuttles between Canada and Argentina, I believe.  All these guys make a decent living off the Contrarian and disgruntled Yankees and Confederates.  ;-)

Freddie's picture

Casey gets pretty tedious.  His old man made a fortune developing real estate after WW2 in the beltway (DC). He profited from the explosion in the Fed govt.     He and Agora and all the other newsletters are constantly pimping their housing devlopment for rich folk in Argentina.  I guess he figured out a way to keep that Pelosi look-alike c**t Kirschner from taking everything from the ex-pats moving to Argentina.

I get tired of those newsletter spam emails where they are in Paris or Argentina or London while you the sucker reading this spam are in some cubicle in Houston or Toledo or Des Moines.


mumcard's picture

Thanks for the knowledge Freddie.  I love it when people points out the gatekeepers and asks where their clothes are.

knukles's picture

The Mayans predicted the end of the world.
Dorothy predicted it was a curtain.
The weatherman's predictions suck.

FEDbuster's picture

You don't need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows.

walcott's picture

Asia? I thought that band was dead a long time ago.

Nikao7's picture

A down vote???  Someone has no sense of humor today :)

CPL's picture

I wonder if this isn't some sort of deranged society seppuku.

TotalCarp's picture

Well thats exactly it. Its not about oil.. its about polticians trying to distract the shepple while the foundations crack and the elites cash out and run off.

Japan is done basically we all know that. China.. a trickier situation which will last longer but fixing dislocation would require so much pain, the gov't will never be able to pull it off..

so.. only thing they can do is.. get those nationalist juices flowing.

AlaricBalth's picture

According to the Treaty of Mutual Cooperation and Security between the United States and Japan, both parties assumed an obligation to maintain and develop their capacities to resist armed attack in common and to assist each other in case of armed attack on territories under Japanese administration.

When push comes to shove, and Japan seeks assistance, look for the US State Department to respond with a terse "What treaty?".

CheapBastard's picture

Too bad this treay did not predate Pearl Harbor.

mkhs's picture

War-R-US is going to miss a chance at fun?

Half_A_Billion_Hollow_Points's picture

fun it will be when putin shuts europe off due to "technical problem"


Think Russia is letting the US fight China?  US can't win, of course, but the mere possibility puts Putin right where he wants to be

Lore's picture

Yes -- Exactly -- They've already gone through their crisis and got their debt under control. Notice the composition of THEIR reserves...

"Russia recorded a Government Debt to GDP of 9.60 percent of the country's Gross Domestic Product in 2011. Government Debt To GDP in Russia is reported by the International Monetary Fund. Historically, from 1999 until 2011, Russia Government Debt To GDP averaged 28.6 Percent reaching an all time high of 99.0 Percent in December of 1999 and a record low of 7.9 Percent in December of 2008. Generally, Government debt as a percent of GDP is used by investors to measure a country ability to make future payments on its debt, thus affecting the country borrowing costs and government bond yields."


Terminus C's picture

Nah, Putin needs the US to beat down China... Sure he'd get all uppity and sell weapons to the Chinese but there is nothing he'd like to see more than his two main rivals beat the living shit out of eachother.  China is a huge threat to Siberia.

New World Chaos's picture

They were always going to print more yen, they just need an excuse to do it.  Something that deflects the blame onto evil foreigners and helps TPTB avoid any accountability for fukushima, decades of cronyism and mismanagement, etc.  The Japanese have the best sheeple in the world.  They will eat it up.

Raymond Reason's picture

Since Japan seems bent on committing seppuku, which would be a (temporary) BIG fix to the US economy, it makes you wonder who engineered Shinzo Abe's rise to power?  Japan is still our colony after all. 

bigkahuna's picture

If we (the US) told them both to settle their business and that we would just be sitting by as observers - I bet all of this bullshit would stop pretty quickly. WE are not going to do that because WE are too interested in profiting from a big ass war!

This is what I mean by sociopaths in charge. People, if you don't get it by now: THERE ARE SOCIOPATHS IN CHARGE HERE!!!!!


tom a taxpayer's picture

The bird shit (guano) is what Japan and China are fighting over.

"Guano manure is a highly effective fertilizer due to its high phosphorus and nitrogen content and its relative lack of odor compared to other forms of organic fertilizer such as horse manure." Japan and China are desperate for more bird shit.


CPL's picture

Indeed, big shortage of bird shit covered rocks.   Up there with silver and gold.

knukles's picture

The New Federal Reserve Fiat Wrapper. 
A generous helping of reasonably fresh rewarmed guano wrapped in a new crispy $1 bill signed by Timmah and whatever else your little imagination desires.

Get 'em while they're hot!

Now available for a limited time only to be counted as a Tier One Reserve Asset

icanhasbailout's picture

and Collateralized Litterbox Obligations once again proves to be an idea ahead of its time

CPL's picture

Why not?


"Here at Great West Life we're looking towards the future for you and family with direct and leverage investments into the rock solid CLO private growth sector."


CLO's. it's got an acronym, catchy, fits on a power point.  Plus when people say it's a shitty investment, they'd be right.  

Quality is job number two here are ZH EscrowInc Mutual ETN's Fidelity.

ebear's picture

Rocket fuel!  Even better than Mooseberries!

CPL's picture

Can't discuss Canada's energy policy at this time.

Gimleteye's picture

Not unreasonable. After all the chinese have needed guano since at least 1960. That was Dr. No's cover story in Jamaica til Bond broke it up.

Matt's picture

We should trade them the Haber-Bosch process in exchange for their research into Thorium reactors. They can use the gases from sewer and landfills to make nitrates in lieu of guano.

kliguy38's picture

Remember the ALAMO er...wait a min.......TORA TORA TORA...thatz betta

Larry Dallas's picture

And so this is how it begins. Just like in 1943.

45north's picture

1943?  don't you mean 1941 when Japan attacked the United States and the US declared war on Japan?




Disenchanted's picture

Pearl Harbor wasn't part of a united State until 1959.

pods's picture

And it wasn't the Japs, it was the Germans, duh!


Chief KnocAHoma's picture

"Over?... Did you say it's over?.... Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor?"


"Forget it... he's on a roll."

Disenchanted's picture


pods said:

And it wasn't the Japs, it was the Germans, duh!


I was just stating a fact, and didn't mention 'Krauts' or 'Nips.' The stolen kingdom of Hawaii didn't become a US State until 1959. I know that because it was the same year I was born. The same year for the State where you can see Russia from your back yard.

The technically accurate description would be: After being prodded and poked the Japanese bombed a forward operating base/outpost of our blue water navy that had been established on a stolen group of islands which under color of law had been declared a US territory.

Conveniently the USA's most modern form of offensive weaponry at the time had been moved away from Pearl, and the weaponry of the past was left to serve as sitting duck targets. All that machinated by the President(and his 'handlers') who during the 1940 Presidential campaign(while running for his 3rd term btw) had said this:


"I have said this before, but I shall say it again and again and again; your boys are not going to be sent into any foreign wars."


Yes I'm sort of anal about these kinds of things...so sue me. :) We've had lying, corrupt figureheads posing as Presidents for a very long time.

rbg81's picture

Think of the GDP multiplier if both Japan AND China nuke each other?  With maybe North Korea & South Korea going at it for good measure...just because they got the fever.  Supposedly Japan has no nukes, but not quite sure I buy that.  Just like in "You Only Live Twice", they've probably got an arsenal tucked away in a volcano somewhere.  Hell, if a nuke war between Japan & China happened, I would even consider buying GM. 

AllWorkedUp's picture

Good point. I suppose USD's and Euro's would be in high demand as well. Sell, sell, sell on the Aussie dollar.

Million $ question. How would gold react?

BooMushroom's picture

If China and Japan decided to make each other glow, where would we get our crappy, cheap-ass consumer goods? Thailand, India, Vietnam and Korea are close enough they might have their own internal issues.

We'd have to get all of Central and South America, and most of Eastern Europe to start manufacturing! Maybe we'd have to recolonize Africa to boot!

God knows wal-mart customers aren't going to pay fifteen bucks for a plastic egg slicer made in Philidelphia. Got to find that cheap labor somewhere foreign!

rbg81's picture

Of course, if it came to that, they might just lob a few nukes our way to get us to join the party.  If I were in LA, SF, Seattle, or Honolulu, I'd be pretty nervous.