Japan Warns It May Fire On Chinese Aircraft Over Disputed Islands; China Retorts: "There Will Be No Second Shot"

Tyler Durden's picture

A week ago we reported that following what China said was a response to counter "Japanese military aircraft disrupting the routine patrols of Chinese administrative aircraft" over the East China Sea, the world's most populous country (and one which has the largest, 2.25 million strong, standing army) scrambled several jets and put its military on high alert. Now, it is the turn of Japan, and its brand new militant and nationalistic government, to "retaliate" and escalate tensions by one more notch, in the process crashing any hope that Chinese imports of Japanese goods may resume, and obviating the ongoing temporary plunge in the yen (which while doing nothing to boost exports to this 20% trading partner, has made imports so expensive, inflation in the past two months has already soared well above the 2% target for various key goods as previously reported).

Moments ago, Japan says it may fire warning shots and take other measures to keep foreign aircraft from violating its airspace in the latest verbal blast between Tokyo and Beijing that raises concerns that a dispute over hotly contested islands could spin out of control.

AP reports:

Japanese officials made the comments after Chinese fighters tailed its warplanes near the islands recently. The incident is believed to be the first scrambling of Chinese fighters since the tensions began to rise last spring.


According to Chinese media, a pair of J-10 fighters was scrambled after Japanese F-15s began tailing a Chinese surveillance plane near the disputed islands in the East China Sea. China has complained the surveillance flight did not violate Japanese airspace and the F-15s were harassing it.


It was the first time the Chinese media has reported fighters being mobilized to respond to Japanese air force activity in the area and comes amid what Japan says is a rapid intensification of Chinese air force activity around the islands, where Japanese and Chinese coast guard ships have squared off for months.


Though there have been no outright clashes, the increased sea and air operations have fueled worries that the situation could spin out of control.


"Every country has procedures for how to deal with a violation of its territory that continues after multiple cautionary measures," Japanese Defense Minister Itsunori Onodera said on Jan. 16 when asked if tracer shots would be fired against intruding aircraft that refuse to change course. "We have response measures ready that are consistent with global standards."


Onodera said the use of warning shots has long been provided for under Japan's defense policies and is widely accepted under international rules of engagement. Japan's air force has not actually resorted to them since 1987--against a Soviet aircraft--and none were fired last week.


But Chinese and Japanese media have suggested Tokyo is publicly floating the possibility to test China's reaction.

Perhaps it may surprise Japan, but "China's reaction" will hardly be one of a dog retreating with its tail between its legs. In fact, it will likely be quite the opposite.

And the fact that the US has once again stepped in, and is once again on the side of the party that started this whole escalation fiasco (that would be Japan for those who have forgotten), will not help:

The escalation of tensions has worried the United States, with Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton saying on Jan. 18 that while the U.S. doesn't take a position on who has sovereignty over the islands, it opposes "any unilateral actions that would seek to undermine Japanese administration."


That brought a sharp retort from the Chinese Foreign Ministry on Jan. 20. The comments "ignore the facts" that the islands are China's inherent territory, spokesman Qin Gang said in a statement that urged the U.S. to adopt "a responsible attitude."


In Beijing last week, a Foreign Ministry spokesman said China is on "high alert" and suggested Japan is escalating the tensions over the islands, called the Diaoyu in China and the Senkaku in Japan. Taiwan also claims the small isles, which are uninhabited but may be surrounded by valuable underwater natural resources.


"Chinese planes and ships are exercising normal jurisdiction in the waters and airspace surrounding the Diaoyu Islands," spokesman Hong Lei said. "We are opposed to the operations of Japan's planes and ships, which violate our rights around Diaoyu. We are on high alert against this escalation."


As is often the case, Chinese media quoted military academics with a much more fiery response.


"Japan's desire to fire tracer warning shots as a way of frightening the Chinese is nothing but a joke that shows the stupidity, cruelty and failure to understand their own limitations," Maj. Gen. Peng Guangqian of the Chinese Academy of Military Sciences was quoted as saying by the China News Service and other state media.


"Firing tracer bullets is a type of provocation; it's firing the first shot," he said. "Were Japan to dare to fire tracers, which is to say fire the first shot, then China wouldn't stint on responding and not allow them to fire the second shot."

Sounds like a catalyst to double down and buy every ES contract in sight: just think of the GDP boost and appropriate fiscal multiplier once Japan is levelled.

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HardlyZero's picture

Will Sharp and Sony go up tomorrow ?

MachineMan's picture

Where is Mao when you need him.

luna_man's picture



Thank's to MY MAIN MAN, if you are here, you gotta learn somthin!!...Right?

Yellowhoard's picture

I think Japan should go for it.

General Tso's chicken and will only let the situation simmer.

lolmao500's picture

And Japan hasn't confirmed yet if they would indeed fire at Chinese planes. They are thinking about it...

Aductor's picture

They would normally "closely monitor the situation", but with the nut jobs in charge and with an urgent need of an outside threat to redirect the attention of the people, who knows. Same goes with China.

gimli's picture

All jets made by Boeing, don't worry they'll all explode before any shots are fired.

lolmao500's picture

You're quite right about that.


It was recently and very quietly revealed that the manufacturer of the American F-15 fighter would give the U.S. Air Force a million dollars of F-15 spare parts, free of charge, in compensation for the defective parts they provided that caused an F-15 to come apart in the air in 2007. In that accident the front part of the jet (forward of the cockpit) separated from the rest of the aircraft. The pilot was able to eject safely but was slightly injured in the process.

The inspections of the older F-15s found substandard parts in 182 aircraft. Boeing (the manufacturer) eventually admitted that it had built over a hundred F-15s using longerons that were not 2.5mm thick, as specified, but in some cases only one millimeter thick.

lakecity55's picture

Look, we can use cheap chinamen parts. Nobody will ever find out. What's a millimeter?

knukles's picture

Not discernible when squinting.


(I know, off to hell with me but I couldn't resist)

gimli's picture

The Japanese would be better off getting them radioactive fish into the Chinese markets. A glowing Samurai Sushi attack.

espirit's picture

Dirty fish bombs?  whocouldanode.

jonjon831983's picture

So you're saying buy some BA?

General Decline's picture

Bronkaid? That stuff is hard to find right now!!

Freddie's picture

The early ones were McDonnell Douglas.  Boeing eventually bought MD out. 

lakecity55's picture

Hmmmm..... economic disasters, Ozone is attacking patriots, AQ is running loose and armed with Libyan weapons courtesy of their agent, Ozone in DC...who needs distractions and has a hard-on to declare Martial Law....

"Hello? Japan? Ozone here. Hey, those ChiComs are wimps. Shoot some of their planes down. I promise I will back you up!"

Black Swan, Gangland Style, Bit-Chez!


"Americanz, as your new overlord, due to China and Japan being at war, I have to have all your gunz, gold, food, and little kids."

Oh, and the EBTs quit working at midnight. Have fun."

Dieselclam's picture

I cannot help but wonder if there is a grand scheme in this that leads the US into a deliberate war with China for the purpose of us telling the Chinese to take our debt and stuff it.

tenpanhandle's picture

US debt with China is not nearly big enough to warrant a war with them.  Hell, it cost us 3 trillion for a stalemate in Iraq/Afganland.  Just print 3 trillion and hand it over to them and say paid in full...bitchez!

booboo's picture

what do they do in Japan to recruit military age men, blow up Drill Instructors, Anime simulators?

lolmao500's picture

China is also dealing with the Philippines :


China Wants It All And Will Fight For It
The government has told oil companies to hold off on drilling for natural gas off Reed bank. This is within Filipino territory, but China threatens to use force to prevent drilling.
"Illegal" oil exploration or fishing, for example, will encounter Chinese civilian ships, and a few small military ships, that "accidently" destroy fishing nets or disrupt oil exploration activities. This will, as it has in the past, involve "accidental" collisions with the offending ships. Any use of force against the offending Chinese civilian ships will be met with force by Chinese warplanes and warships.

Salt's picture

It's unimaginable to maintain a military the size China does without expecting to use it.

post turtle saver's picture

They use it all the time... on their own people.

willwork4food's picture

So do we: Ruby Ridge, OKC, Waco, 911, TARP I, Algos...

CheapBastard's picture

Cut off 100% of the Japanese imports....wow, sadly, that would really hurt 'the little people' of Japan...yet at the same time the militaristic leaders would bath in the limelight eating 7 course sashimi dinners off the naked body of some 16 year old.



Nyotaimori' is the Japanese tradition of eating sushi off a perfectly still, naked woman's body.



knukles's picture

What's the name of that restaurant again?



(ya kno, that's really fucking retarded sick shit... woulda been great back in the drinking days)

gimli's picture

At kosher sushi bars, they also serve large garlic pickles .... but that's another story.

willwork4food's picture

Too late Knukles, DCS has already gleaned your IP address.

ziggy59's picture

What glows more? The woman or the sushi?

tenpanhandle's picture

but watch out for the bukkake sauce.

ekm's picture

It seems clear to me that the powers to be are looking or a reason to crap the market....but not get blamed for it.

This seems to be one way out, China's fault.

lakecity55's picture

Krugman: "Yes, too bad half the USA got blown up, but the stimulus spending needed to rebuild will Revive the Economy!"

knukles's picture

"2 jobs for every survivor"

A surefire reelection slogan

yogibear's picture

Follow history.

1.) Curreny War

2..) Then real war.


chump666's picture

Prepare.  YEN shorters will be evaporated as will anyone shorting Japanese bonds.  Abe is playing by the war-gets-a-country-bid rule book.  Nasty, very...since China will try the same cheap trick and fatale one.

Well done central banks and central planners, your first looming war.  See what happens when you idiots mess with the markets, you send inflation hedges bid and cause the population to become relentless and agitated. So then governments have to create a war or enemy.

What a beautiful world.

Orly's picture

Bass said that the yen returns to all-time highs just before the whole house goes down in flames.

Kicklighter said his prop indicators are saying that the is a marked risk-off event just around the corner and the Euro corrects to more historic norms.

Already scalping the EJ south, looking to build a longer-term position after they make the BoJ announcement.  Sell the news.


chump666's picture

Check this:

Stocks also hit by report of CDS account leaks http://link.reuters.com/hyd45  Malaysia problems. 

Asia looks like it's getting messy by the min, what that could mean, is a nice spill over to risk aversion into our markets, as the proxy support for all equity markets (with The Fed) is Asian markets. They blow, we blow...

War trade is stock market negative and FX cross positive as in stocks.  Brass is right Japan is doomed.  A maybe very very close to that 'event'

C'mon still gotta get our 1987 here and that did start in Asia first.


I wanna buy some nice booze...

One World Mafia's picture

If you plug Diaoyu islands and Senkaku islands into google maps, it doesn't recognize the Chinese name.

HardlyZero's picture

...its Google's fault, they created the database problem.

lakecity55's picture

I wish Godzilla would appear and crush the stupid islands back into the ocean.

pitz's picture

If Japan were levelled, keep in mind that the SUKI (tm) RELIGION, The New World Religion (tm) (motherfucking religion) has a contingency plan to continue worldwide operations without Japan.  Although membership will be severely curtailed and SUKI (tm) might lose its official "major world religion" status and be relegated to more of a minor regional cult in the realm of religion.

Let's hope it doesn't come to this though. 

Tsar Pointless's picture

I should learn Mandarin then, shouldn't I?

massbytes's picture

I just decided to get a Chinese girlfriend as I am too lazy to learn Mandarin.  She's great  Hates it though when I tell her I am long Chinese women.

AgAu_man's picture

Be careful she does not 'short' your... manhood.  ;-)

jonjon831983's picture

I saw 2 articles on Bloomberg today, one's headline suggested that Japan wouldn't backdown, when I refreshed couldn't find it anymore.  Bah.


The 2nd article that seems to have replaced it: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-01-17/u-s-official-calls-for-cooler-h...

"China Seeks Peaceful End to Island Dispute as Japan Pledges Calm"

HardlyZero's picture

Do they have 7 or 10 bullet magazines in China or Japan ?  Big Gulps ?

stant's picture

trillion $ us coins to fund the war, cut out your catylitic converter on your car before you trade it in,put tape over the service engine soon light

AgAu_man's picture

Long Platinum bitchez!

There, I always wanted to say that in context.