Japan Warns It May Fire On Chinese Aircraft Over Disputed Islands; China Retorts: "There Will Be No Second Shot"

Tyler Durden's picture

A week ago we reported that following what China said was a response to counter "Japanese military aircraft disrupting the routine patrols of Chinese administrative aircraft" over the East China Sea, the world's most populous country (and one which has the largest, 2.25 million strong, standing army) scrambled several jets and put its military on high alert. Now, it is the turn of Japan, and its brand new militant and nationalistic government, to "retaliate" and escalate tensions by one more notch, in the process crashing any hope that Chinese imports of Japanese goods may resume, and obviating the ongoing temporary plunge in the yen (which while doing nothing to boost exports to this 20% trading partner, has made imports so expensive, inflation in the past two months has already soared well above the 2% target for various key goods as previously reported).

Moments ago, Japan says it may fire warning shots and take other measures to keep foreign aircraft from violating its airspace in the latest verbal blast between Tokyo and Beijing that raises concerns that a dispute over hotly contested islands could spin out of control.

AP reports:

Japanese officials made the comments after Chinese fighters tailed its warplanes near the islands recently. The incident is believed to be the first scrambling of Chinese fighters since the tensions began to rise last spring.


According to Chinese media, a pair of J-10 fighters was scrambled after Japanese F-15s began tailing a Chinese surveillance plane near the disputed islands in the East China Sea. China has complained the surveillance flight did not violate Japanese airspace and the F-15s were harassing it.


It was the first time the Chinese media has reported fighters being mobilized to respond to Japanese air force activity in the area and comes amid what Japan says is a rapid intensification of Chinese air force activity around the islands, where Japanese and Chinese coast guard ships have squared off for months.


Though there have been no outright clashes, the increased sea and air operations have fueled worries that the situation could spin out of control.


"Every country has procedures for how to deal with a violation of its territory that continues after multiple cautionary measures," Japanese Defense Minister Itsunori Onodera said on Jan. 16 when asked if tracer shots would be fired against intruding aircraft that refuse to change course. "We have response measures ready that are consistent with global standards."


Onodera said the use of warning shots has long been provided for under Japan's defense policies and is widely accepted under international rules of engagement. Japan's air force has not actually resorted to them since 1987--against a Soviet aircraft--and none were fired last week.


But Chinese and Japanese media have suggested Tokyo is publicly floating the possibility to test China's reaction.

Perhaps it may surprise Japan, but "China's reaction" will hardly be one of a dog retreating with its tail between its legs. In fact, it will likely be quite the opposite.

And the fact that the US has once again stepped in, and is once again on the side of the party that started this whole escalation fiasco (that would be Japan for those who have forgotten), will not help:

The escalation of tensions has worried the United States, with Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton saying on Jan. 18 that while the U.S. doesn't take a position on who has sovereignty over the islands, it opposes "any unilateral actions that would seek to undermine Japanese administration."


That brought a sharp retort from the Chinese Foreign Ministry on Jan. 20. The comments "ignore the facts" that the islands are China's inherent territory, spokesman Qin Gang said in a statement that urged the U.S. to adopt "a responsible attitude."


In Beijing last week, a Foreign Ministry spokesman said China is on "high alert" and suggested Japan is escalating the tensions over the islands, called the Diaoyu in China and the Senkaku in Japan. Taiwan also claims the small isles, which are uninhabited but may be surrounded by valuable underwater natural resources.


"Chinese planes and ships are exercising normal jurisdiction in the waters and airspace surrounding the Diaoyu Islands," spokesman Hong Lei said. "We are opposed to the operations of Japan's planes and ships, which violate our rights around Diaoyu. We are on high alert against this escalation."


As is often the case, Chinese media quoted military academics with a much more fiery response.


"Japan's desire to fire tracer warning shots as a way of frightening the Chinese is nothing but a joke that shows the stupidity, cruelty and failure to understand their own limitations," Maj. Gen. Peng Guangqian of the Chinese Academy of Military Sciences was quoted as saying by the China News Service and other state media.


"Firing tracer bullets is a type of provocation; it's firing the first shot," he said. "Were Japan to dare to fire tracers, which is to say fire the first shot, then China wouldn't stint on responding and not allow them to fire the second shot."

Sounds like a catalyst to double down and buy every ES contract in sight: just think of the GDP boost and appropriate fiscal multiplier once Japan is levelled.

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nestle's picture

WAR is coming BITCHEZ!!!!!!!

TomGa's picture

Who to believe? The AP (ugh) or Bloomberg (double ugh)?  Though just posted, the AP article is covering events from last week.


Meanwhile, from Bloombarf:

"While Japan won’t make any concessions over the islands, it will “respond calmly” so as not to provoke China, Fumio Kishida, the new Japanese foreign minister, said Jan. 18 after talks with U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in Washington."

"The seas must be “governed by laws and rules and not by might,” [Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo] Abe said, according to an e-mailed transcript of the prepared speech, issued by Japan’s Foreign Ministry."



"China Seeks Peaceful End to Island Dispute as Japan Pledges Calm"


-Bloomberg, Jan 20, 2013


phoolish's picture

I'm sure our Nobel Peace Prize Winner can smooth it over.



mumcard's picture

Probably have them sit down over a beer....

HardlyZero's picture

and 100 kJ blue glowing sushi roll.  with Kung Pow Shrimp !!!

knowless's picture

the chinese craft look surprisingly susceptible to a head on assault, with those gaping intakes, the heat signature would be significantly below the craft and especially the pilot...  whereas the american/japanese at least have to take a hit on the turn.. idiotic design. unless you have missles that turn 90' like a mother fucker, in which case.. yeah, whatever.


how are j-10s real fighter jets? or is it that you catch the f's on the run?

lolmao500's picture

They are not really but they've got a shitload of them.

AgAu_man's picture

J-10's?  Dunno, but we know that they are Israeli versions of the F15.  Have it from reliable sources that the IDF folks are incredibly well and deeply integrated into our MIC. 

It works like this:

     Step 1:  We teach them

     Step 2:  They boss us ;-)

     Step 3:  We keep working 

I joke, but I swear the whole nation is a group of Alpha-personalities.  No low-esteem or Low-T issues.  They need to govern others.

lolmao500's picture

Right now there's 3 Chinese ships off Senkaku...

mumcard's picture

War of attrition coming up.  Maybe Korea will be the field again.  They get to test out all their new toys and it keeps idle workers from rioting in the streets.  Maybe we can drag India in.

silverdragon's picture

China will bleed the Japanese economy first, using this as an excuse, to kill their economy. The Japanese are demographically fucked too many old people and their youth are useless.



lolmao500's picture

If they are smart, they will do that. But their pride could force them to do stupid things. Wouldn't be the first time.

mumcard's picture

Double edged sword.  Too many idle Chinese factory workers will lead to problems.  They aren't going to be spending time with their girlfriends since all the female fetuses have been aborted.

lolmao500's picture

Yeah there's what... 30+ million more men then women in China... either China is gonna need a new drug to turn people gay, a war to kill tens of million of men or invade some territory to ``capture women``... if you're a woman in Vietnam or South Korea... better look out... you could end up as a sex slave for Chinese soldiers.

HardlyZero's picture

3 Chinese Ships Enter Japanese Waters Near Disputed Islands — Nikkei down



On Sunday, Beijing said it was "strongly dissatisfied" after US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton issued a veiled warning to China not to challenge Tokyo’s control over the chain, which is believed to sit atop vast mineral reserves.

On Friday, Clinton said the US opposed “any unilateral actions that would seek to undermine Japanese administration” of the islands.



Ignorance is bliss's picture

I fear all we have done is to awaken a sleeping giant and fill him with a terrible resolve. 


Isoroku Yamamoto (1884-04-04 – 1943-04-18) was a Fleet Admiral and Commander-in-Chief of the Imperial Japanese Navy (IJN) during World War II

BubbleBobble's picture

I just went all-in long Nikkei...   is that so wrong?

Lord Of Finance's picture

Yeah, they fought over this right after WWII. Shells and bombs flyiing back and forth as to who would get the rights to the next shoe factory. It will occur again.

ebworthen's picture

Sooner or later the U.S.A. will have to choose between Japan or China.

Wall Street and Washington have already decided to sell out their own nation and populace to China; so don't ruminate too long on the outcome of this sad tale.

mumcard's picture

Japan is the israel of the Pacific.  Our unsinkable aircraft carrier.  Maybe they'll convince them to keep buying US bonds before agreeing to fight China.

HardlyZero's picture

Nuclear powered...er .. oil dependent aircraft carrier filled with Kamikaze politicians.

UGrev's picture

Oh for cryin out loud.. 

China: I going shoot you

Japan: I shoot you!

China: I said I going shoot you

Japan: Go 'head, I shoot you!

China: Really, I shoot you!!

Japan: Fine.. we shoot you! keep saying you shoot us, we keep saying we shoot you!! 

China: I shoot you now.. 

Japan: I shoot you back  for real.. 


blah blah blah blah blah..

q99x2's picture

I say sink the islands. Scuttle them to the sea floor and be done with it. Got boats bigger than those rocks. Who needs them.

joego1's picture

Finally a use for all of those grounded dreamliners.

joego1's picture

Humans may be their own solution.

mumcard's picture

Can we load up the hot chicks and bring them to the states for safekeeping?  The non-radioactive ones anyhow.

Stuck on Zero's picture

The last time China tried to invade Japanese territory a huge typhoon swept in and destroyed everything.  It was called Kamikaze.


PGR88's picture

Japan started all this??   What a ridiculous claim this author is making.

Fish Gone Bad's picture

China has been funding its growth pretty much debt free.  Germany financed it entire government and war operation from 1935 to 1945 without gold and without debt, and it took the entire Capitalist and entire Communist world to destroy the German power.  China has more dollars than it needs, it certainly has gold, and it most definitely has a chip on its shoulder from Nanking.   China has a nice selecton of anti-fleet weapons as well.  Japan will most definitely get its nose bloodied.

mumcard's picture

So where'd they get the money to rebuild the war machine?  There's a bankster involved somewhere.

Stuck on Zero's picture

Slave labor is a cheap way to fund growth.


post turtle saver's picture

One of these days, the Chinese are going to wake up and find Three Gorges swept 100 miles down the river. Just a few well-placed stealth cruise missiles and it's all she wrote.

lolmao500's picture

Yeah if China attacks anyone, a nice cruise missile in the Three Gorges Dam and China is done.

mumcard's picture

Why use a cruise missile when you can use HAARP to cause a deep earthquake and have plausible deniability.

Son of Loki's picture

All of this 'tension' gives menaing to the article, "the End of Cheap oil."


"Oil is the lifeblood of the military," Rumsfeld said (sorry i had to quote him...wish someone else said it).

CheapBastard's picture
Dreamliner probe widens after excess battery voltage ruled out





ANA cancels 141 more flights with 787 jet grounded




Makes you wonder who in Japan signed off on these aircraft? Who at Boeing?

HardlyZero's picture

It is obvious no one ever expected the plane to fly or for anyone to actually try to use the batteries...silly.

kurt's picture

Warmongers shut your pie holes, racists too. China/Japan: Japan give back the islands or pay for them, China concede some other territory of equal size as a compensation and act of good will. Everybody, get back to work.

mumcard's picture

Blah, blah, blah, give back your land and your house.  Someone used to own it...

kurt's picture

Read mumcard's post below, then vote.

mumcard's picture

Oh well, kurt has figured out how to solve international resource disputes.  Excuse the rest of us for living in reality.

Joseph Jones's picture


I once asked a so-called "evangelical" so-called "Christian" about us stealing this land from indegenous people.  He replied we did not steal it because they were nomads.  We just permanently occupied land they vacated.

Yeah, and monkeys may fly out my butt. 

nothing can go wrogn's picture

Dear Japan,

Please shut down all nuclear reactors, and dry cask all spent fuel, before starting a war.


Everything that is still alive on this planet

Lord Of Finance's picture

Japanese and Chinese want to make war. Make war compensate for small penis. You American penis soo big. Our Asain penis soo small. You American have vewry big penis.

 But we have very big nuclear reactor. You American reactor soo small. We Asain have vewry big reactor.



 No offenses to you sensitive types. It is just a joke. I have vewry small penis too.

jack stephan's picture

I miss Belushi, happy premie birthday. He'd sort this out the delta way.