China, Japan, And The US - Tying It All Together

Tyler Durden's picture

Originally posted by Stratfor,

Summary

As Japan and China increase naval and air activity around the disputed Senkaku/Diaoyu islands in the East China Sea, the United States is steadily increasing its active involvement to reassure Tokyo and send a warning to Beijing. But Beijing may seek an opportunity to challenge U.S. primacy in what China considers its territorial waters.

Analysis

The United States is monitoring Chinese air activity from E-3 Sentry aircraft based at Kadena air base on Okinawa in response to increasing incidents of Chinese combat and surveillance aircraft shadowing U.S. P-3C and C-130 flights near the Ryukyu islands, according to Japanese and Korean media reports. Chinese pilots are more actively shadowing U.S. military aircraft flying through the airspace between China and Japan. Chinese aircraft have also reportedly violated Japanese airspace near the disputed Senkaku/Diaoyu islands several times since mid-December, prompting Japan to send its aircraft, including F-15Js, to monitor Chinese actions. ?

The use of E-3s would bolster U.S. coordination and provide advance warning of possible encounters with Chinese aircraft, but its purpose may also be to offset some of Japan's weaknesses in the area. Japan's Defense Ministry wants to supplement its early warning capability -- its radar station on Miyako Island, near Okinawa, cannot detect Chinese aircraft flying over the sea at low altitudes. As the Japanese government continues to review its policies and capabilities for dealing with China's assertive stance on the disputed islands, Tokyo has identified several gaps in its ability to address Chinese actions. Japan will depend on the United States to fill these gaps as its military purchases new systems, shifts its existing forces and adjusts its rules of engagement.
 

Escalation

Until 2012, the dispute over the islands was only an occasional source of tension between China and Japan. The two sides had operated under a tacit agreement: China would not push its claims if Japan did not develop the islands. In April 2012, then-Tokyo Governor Shintaro Ishihara, in a speech at the Heritage Foundation, announced the city's plans to purchase the Senkaku Islands from their Japanese private owner. This action forced the Japanese central government to purchase the islands outright rather than continue to rent them from the private owners or allow Ishihara to buy the islands and possibly begin to build facilities on them.?
 
What took place was effectively a change in the deeds to the islands, which in reality were already under Japanese control. Beijing, however, exploited the move to set in motion a nationalist campaign against Japanese businesses and products and to justify the new pace of Chinese maritime and air activity around the islands. China began sending more ships from its civilian maritime enforcement agencies to survey the waters around the islands and added aerial surveillance flights as part of a strategy to either force Japanese discussions over the islands or to demonstrate China's presence and authority. In the first case, Japan does not acknowledge China's claim to the islands, and thus it does not recognize a dispute, instead characterizing Beijing's moves as Chinese aggression. In the second instance, China sees its increased presence as a way to either cow the other claimant or to help China build a stronger case should the dispute ever go to international arbitration.
 
Japan has already recognized several shortcomings in its own defense capabilities to counter Chinese actions. Tokyo is reviving discussions about moving some of its F-15s from Naha on Okinawa to Shimoji-shima, which would place the aircraft just 190 kilometers (118 miles) from the Senkakus, rather than 420 kilometers away, thus halving the current 15-20 minute flight time required to scramble Japanese warplanes to the islands. Tokyo is also seeking to develop or purchase additional unmanned aircraft, including the U.S. Global Hawk, to maintain more active monitoring of the area around the disputed islands, as well as of the Chinese coast 330 kilometers away. The Japanese Coast Guard is also planning a 12-vessel special patrol unit to monitor the Senkaku/Diaoyu islands. But most Japanese plans are slated for implementation no sooner than 2015. This leaves Tokyo unable to effectively counter Chinese activity for two more years.
 

The United States' Pacific Presence

This is where the United States comes in. Tokyo and Washington are discussing a joint approach to the disputed area and to Chinese actions. Washington has said it does not recognize any sovereignty over the islands, but it does recognize Japanese administrative control, meaning that by default, Washington supports Japan. But the United States does not want a violent clash between Japan and China. By increasing its direct involvement, Washington can reassure Tokyo of its support, softening the pressure for Japan to take more aggressive action, and it can serve notice to China that more aggressive action would involve not only Japan but also the United States. ?
 
But this approach assumes China is willing to step back. In China's view, the United States is trying to contain Beijing and encroach on its sphere of influence. Beijing sees the evidence of this in Washington's pivot to Asia, in the expansion of its political and defense relations with Southeast Asian states and in its strengthened military posture throughout the region, particularly in Australia and the Philippines. China's leaders see in some sense a Western attempt to prevent China, as a non-Western state, from taking its rightful place as a major regional power and international player. Chinese academics and officials raise the specter of a U.S. containment strategy similar to that used in the Cold War against the Soviets. Some also see a deeper U.S. and Western resistance to non-western power, an attitude they see going back to Western moves to block Japan's emergence as a modern imperial nation in the early 20th Century. ?
 
The involvement of the United States, then, may not suffice to alter China's actions around the disputed islands. Indeed, it may encourage China to more boldly test U.S. resolve and to assert its claim not only to the islands, but also to China's expanded sphere of influence. In 2001, after a collision between a Chinese Jian-8 and a U.S. EP-3E, China held the plane on Hainan Island and demanded a U.S. apology. But more than just seeking an apology or trying to pry secrets from the plane's airframe, China used the opportunity to try to show other Asian states that the United States and its military could be countered in Asia.
 
Beijing's ability to resist U.S. demands and Washington's unwillingness to intervene militarily were, for China, a victory. The 9/11 attacks on the United States shifted U.S. attention and the stresses of U.S.-China relations were quickly deprioritized. But those tensions are rising once again, and at a time when more military flights and ships are moving near the disputed area, Beijing may be on the lookout for another opportunity to reshape regional perceptions of Washington's military commitment to Asia. And with the United States engaged for more than a decade in a war in Afghanistan, Beijing is calculating that Washington will continue to seek to avoid new conflict in Asia, giving China a short window of opportunity to make its point.

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yogibear's picture

China get's to try out it's carrier destroyer. But according to CNBS and Wall Street China is our ally.

Wall Street will sell anything for a buck, even strategic technology and secrets. They claim it's capitalism. There no country Wall Street is loyal to. 

Kitler's picture

U.S. Congress will sell anything for a buck as well. The ideal solution for China is to slide a couple hundred million into the hands of America's politicians and the Islands (and anything else they may want) are theirs.

The Russians are still kicking themselves in the ass for the lost opportunity of buying the U.S. rather than bankrupting themselves by spending billions in a needless arms race.

The Israelis on the other hand have learned from these mistakes.

trav777's picture

a lot of talk from people not interested in having a real fight over some shit that's basically worthless.

The indonesian oil fields were worth fighting over; the arabian peninsula was, the black sea was.  This shit ain't.

Sudden Debt's picture

In Europe, the groundworks for WO1 started in 1870 with the war between France and Germany about gold and silver.

The stage was set.

In the 1900's when all shit was collapsing and the Britisch empire was also comming down, enough was said and done to start the disputes and escalate it so the fighting could start in 1914.

But don't think it only started in 1914. There where plenty of acts of agression in the decade before. It was just that the Germans saw that the European economies was destroyed and they saw their opening.

So now we have these acts of agression.

America is weak and getting weaker but still carries a punch if need be.

But....

How will that punch carry itself in a decade from now?

When the economy is in tatters?

When America can't pay it's troops?

When building a new carrier every year isn't in the budget anymore?

Ship tend to wear down pretty fast if not maintained right...

Troops are awsome between the age of 22 to 32... after that they get old. So if no new recruits... your army ages...

It can go pretty fast.

10 years from now still seems like a long time.

Sure....

Think about 2000... what did you do? Remember 9/11? Not that long ago... and that's 12 years.

 

Lord Blankcheck's picture

Maybe China will stop funding the US milatary now.Just the threat of not buying US debt would........

prains's picture

All this story needs now is a a Duke Ferdinand, I know, lets dress up Flance Liestrong and shove him out of the chariot

illyia's picture

If you throw Steve Liesman in there you have a deal!

lakecity55's picture

Joe's cunning plan: I'll have a ChiCom knock Barry off and the I will be the Leader!

That will cause a war with China in revenge for Barry and as a bonus, I can carry my Beretta around and shoot up Chinese restaurants!

clara-to-market's picture

Japan is the most hated country in Asia.

The Chinese and Koreans still remember The Empire.

An armed Japan is the stuff of nightmares.

Keep your eyes on this story.

It's important.

http://www.angrysinner.blogspot.kr/2013/01/yesterday-we-went-to-restaurant-for.html

Mine Is Bigger's picture

Just curious.  Have you ever actually been to Asia?

RafterManFMJ's picture

He probably saw them in concert once...

Harry Dong's picture

He tells a good story, that's four sur

 

deKevelioc's picture

Yes, Asia remembers Japanese aggression and hospitality quite well.  In Malaysia, I was thanked for chasing the Japanese out of Malaya duing WWII, "the big one."  I apparently look 35 years old than I am.

lakecity55's picture

Yep. Poiliticians sell off our secrets.

Ask anyone who has served what happens if you give or sell them to the enemy.

Politicians should have to pass an SF86 and sign an Agreement  and go to jail if they sell out.

If these quacks knew the OPM was going to probe their ass, the real crooks would not run.

I bet half the guys in office now can't get a driver's license.

The other half, like Ozone, have 20 of them.

Temporalist's picture
U.N. Agency Warns of Rising Unemployment

"More than 197 million people worldwide are jobless, and an additional 39 million have simply given up looking for work, a United Nations agency said on Monday, warning that government budget-balancing was hurting employment and would probably lead to more job losses soon.

With global growth stalling five years after the financial crisis upended much of the world economy, the number of jobless is expected to rise by 5.1 million this year, to more than 202 million, the International Labor Organization said in a special report. And it predicted there would be a further three million newly jobless people next year."

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/01/22/business/global/un-agency-warns-of-ris...

otto skorzeny's picture

God forbid the govt sector should feel the pain of layoffs that have gutted the private sector

Totentänzerlied's picture

It would be useful to know how many people they consider "eligible to work", as even 202 million unemployed would put the unemployment percentage around 5% - if we are considering only adults.

TruthInSunshine's picture

Thank God for the U.N.

If not for that illustrious institution, I'd have thought the global economy was eating full steam ahead.

Banksters's picture

Given the dams, nuclear powerplants and other soft targets, I don't see how war works for anyone.

Matt's picture

Both sides will agree to limit the conflict to a limited area around the islands. Otherwise, things would go nuclear pretty damn fast.

cossack55's picture

Uh, duh!!! In excess of 6 billion useless breathers running around using up finite resources at an alarming rate.  Time to cull the herd.

Stuck on Zero's picture

The U.S. should get out of there and leave the two mercantilists to work it out.  Japan is no friend.

Jab Cross Hook's picture

So long, so long, and thanks... for all the (radioactive) fish!

otto skorzeny's picture

standing on the sidelines doesn't feed the MilitIndustComplex beast

jwoop66's picture

Sell to both sides.   Get out of europe and sell to whatever sides develop over there.   Let africa go at it amongst themselves and sell to whoever has money there.   Middle east?  You guessed it.  Let em slug it out, and we'll sell em whatever they want (cept for nukes of course).    Lets just do this for everyone.  

One thing, though...    When the Milindustcomplx goes over there to sell stuff, they are on their own.  

Lets get rich on the world settling all the shit they have bottled up the last 70 years because we were havin all the fun with our blood and our money.

machineh's picture

One would think that after 67 years of military occupation, the U.S. would finally declare victory in Asia and go home.

But no. The global military empire will soldier on until the Treasury auctions that finance its massive cash drain finally fail.

Why has no global empire ever endured? Because empire doesn't pay. It costs more to garrison occupied territories than they yield in profit.

USSA: military giant, intellectual midget.

Karlus's picture

Why did Lucifer care about men or men's souls? He is an Angel.

It is simply because God loves men more and gave them a soul. Lucifer wants to be first.

USA does not want peers. Note: Im not saying its right or wrong, just explaining the behaviour.

The other thing, while the US has the luxury to navel gaze at things like gay rights, abortion and other trivialities, the hungry barbarians are howling at our gates.

Pelosi, Reid and Biden would be gibbering in fear if they really knew what the world has in store for us: Envy and Payback in a very ugly way.

RafterManFMJ's picture

I agree with your post completely! Women have no souls.

TPTB_r_TBTF's picture

Lucifer wanted the angels to live in Freedom!

Lucifer wanted that angels could exercise their free will.

There was a war in the Heavens.  Lucifer and his followers were fighting for a Reform from the tyranny of God's central govt.  The angels were discontent and unhappy, because God's anger was persistent.

Lucifer and the angels turned against this vengeful god and pointed out that the loyal angels were basically God's prisoners.  They rebelled against this vengeful god.

Lucifer, the Light Bearer, promised a better govt, one in which all individual angels would be free from God's tyranny.  The conditions for the angels drastically needed to improve!  Many angels decided to accept Lucifer as their head freedom fighter in their struggle to free themselves from oppression.

God waged war against the angels because they sought freedom and because they were no longer willing to bow down to his oppressive power.  The Son of God, Ruler of Heaven, led the enslaved angels against Lucifer's freedom fighters.

Therefore the angels were forced to defend their freedom and their rights, which God denied to them.

The angels were arranged into companies each led by a commanding angel.  Lucifer and his angels won and were able to free themselves from the oppression of the Heavens.

Since that time the Angels from Hell live in Freedom!

Matt's picture

Is this actual HA Biker theology?

lakecity55's picture

Lucifer was God's best angel. He rebelled. He disobeyed his Creator.

God may be vengeful, but only at sin. He is Loving.

Lucifer is a Bad Guy.

Ghordius's picture

+1 funny that you say that this way "USA does not want peers" - that's the same problem we have here with the UK

AgAu_man's picture

Every school yard has s mix of nice kids, smart kids (98 lb weakling), bullies and a few gorillas.

The US is the useful Gorilla to the Smart Kids. For now.

New World Chaos's picture

Remember what happened to that scrawny and vindictive meth cook (Israel) when the big dumb gorilla got sent to juvie?  Remember what happened when the gorilla came back, free of meth, and wise to the fact that the manipulative little bastard was never his bestest buddy in the whole world, but instead had just been using him to terrorize the school and grab all the lunch money?  Both days were glorious.

Israel might fear a reborn America more than it fears its neighbors.  After the revolution they may try a false-flag EMP, framing Russia or China.

yogibear's picture

"U.N. Agency Warns of Rising Unemployment"

Aleady in the process of being fixed. 

Global currency War, then war.

A repeat of last century.


otto skorzeny's picture

and there we get to the bottom of why the UN/NWO wants a small arms "treaty"-can't have a lot of starving serfs w/ guns

Pseudo Anonym's picture

also,

...can't have a lot of starving serfs w/ guns

in new york where they could round up bankers and kill them fuckers

lakecity55's picture

Bankers: We're scared. Do something. We paid for you!

Cuomo: I'll get right on it.

espirit's picture

So what can the U.S. do about it?

Not buy Bejing's junk?  That is a loooong shot in the dark.

Karlus's picture

Precisely. When we have used up China to our satisfaction, we can turn to anyone we choose to provide our manufacturing. Like Mexico for example. And they would be happy to do it. Everyone thinks China has us in a corner, when in fact the opposite is true.

China owns US debt. Debt which can be repudiated at a whim and cannot be used to buy anything the US does not want.

China does not have its own market and is decades away from it. Regardless of how many iToys Apple says it sells there.

Messing with Japan is having them expose what is really on their minds and they would be foolish to "flex" their non-existant muscles at Japan or anyone else for that matter.

Their military is a joke, their planes glow infrared like a flare and their single aircraft carrier is a relic.

Im not really sure what they think they will gain from this, but exposing how new they are to the way the world works.

Pseudo Anonym's picture

you forget this is key:

China owns US debt...

china can also dump, at a whim, usa bonds on the market and take ameerika down just like that

Harry Dong's picture

Yeah...ain't gonna happen

 

post turtle saver's picture

... at which point China's export economy drops dead in its tracks. You'd have the People's Army rolling in from the countryside to take over so fast it would make your head spin. They would purge the ever-living shit out of the leaders that pulled such a dumb stunt.

etresoi's picture

China does not need to dump anything to shut down the US war machine.

The US no longer has the factories to produce bearings.  All machinery bearings in every peiece of US military equipment are madi in China.

Harry Dong's picture

Go get um karlus, u've got it. China dares not. It wouldn't be prudent

 

ozman's picture

This is an ignorant comment, China's military practices Assassin's mace strategy if you dont know what it is read this.

http://www.wired.com/dangerroom/2009/07/china-looks-to-undermine-us-powe...

The inventor of guerrilla warfare, Sun Tzu art of war, strategies based on 5,000 years history, Yue fei, 3 kingdoms etc.  If you think the Chinese fight like westerners think again.  They lost back in the 1800s because they were drugged out and were rendered useless, today's China is not the old China.  The rulers of China are the warlords (now evolved into triads) that dates back to the Ming Dynasty empire.  These guys who are fronted by their reps as the CCP (all funds of the government came from these 7-10 major families) . 

If you think these triads are easy to beat they have been around for centuries and I do not see them going away in the forseeable future. They played a major role in the collapse of the US and western economy by not covering and continuing the ponzi game.  It is this group that is now maxing out the physicals in the Comex and LMX moving the inventory to the homeland.  It is these guys that started the outsourcing movement by starting sweatshop factories of counterfiet goods back in the 70s and 80s.  It is this group that unveiled the Libor scandal and various other scandals. It was these triad families that caught CIA agent Gene Sharp who was the head of orchestrating the Tiananmen Protest in 1989 leading to its eventual crackdown.

If you think the triads are easy to beat, well so far how is US NWO bankster's success rate against them?  So far nil. 

China has a lot of options if indeed provoked into a war.  The triads (the real government of China and this is not hidden, if you watch the 60th Anniversary of the CCP movie staring Jet Li and Jackie Chan the most poignant scene was when all the 7 families were able to convince the big mob family of Shanghai the last backer of Chiang Kai Shek to change alliance to the PLA and Mao) will definitely have various of assymetrical strategies that can sink the US and Japanese economy to enable eventual retaliation.  As Sun Tzu says one must drain all the economic resources of the enemy before fighting the battle.