Meanwhile, In Global FX Markets Today...

Tyler Durden's picture

With the BoJ and the Japanese government set to announce the now much-anticipated (and oft-repeated rumor) 2% inflation target in a joint (yet, rest reassured completely independent) statement, we have seen JPY swing from a 0.4% weakening to a 0.6% strengthening (sell the news?) and back to middle of the day's range by the time Europe closed. Cable (GBPUSD) has quite a day, dropping almost 100 pips top to bottom before bouncing back a little. This is 5 month lows for GBP as the triple-dip response of Mark Carney's new deal starts to get discounted. The USD ended practically unchanged despite all this as European sovereigns leaked wider, CHF strengthened modestly (2Y Swiss positive) and US equity futures did a small stop-run helped by the JPY crosses. It seems the zero-sum game in global FX competitive devaluation, as Steve Englander notes, has a long way to go, for if the UK and Japan, among others, are determined to crowd in growth by boosting exports, their currencies will have to fall a lot more than is now priced in.

 

Some profit-taking in JPY and GBP taking on the reigns of devaluation to 5-month lows today...

 

Via Citi's Steve Englander:

Bottom line is that if the UK and Japan, among others, are determined to crowd in growth by boosting exports, their currencies will have to fall a lot more than is now priced in.

 

It is often argued that the limited post-depreciation export balance improvement in the UK  is due to the concentration of its trade with the euro zone, where growth has been, and is expected by our economists to continue to be, very weak. Were China rather than the euro zone the UK’s major trading partner, the UK’s export performance would be a lot stronger (according to this argument). Similar arguments were made for the lack of response of US exports in the middle of the last decade.

 

There are two difficulties with this line of argument. First, anchoring yourself 25 miles offshore from China, rather than from the euro zone, is not a policy option, so the UK’s bad hand with respect to export partners still means more rather than less depreciation, if GBP weakness is to be the UK’s growth engine. Second a lot of the UK’s export outperformance versus Europe disappears when you measure export gains in a common currency. So it is possible that the UK export outperformance is linked to translation rather than volume effects.

 

To gauge this possibility (and see whether it generalizes) we ran an annual regression of the US export price index on the BoE trade-weighted USD index and a couple of lags. When the trade-weighted USD depreciates, you have export prices going up cumulatively by more than 50% of the depreciation over the next couple of years. If you run a similar regression for the UK you have export prices going up by more than 70% of the depreciation in subsequent years. As we know from US (and now Japan’s Nikkei) experience, such translation effects are a marvelous way of making you feel richer, when in fact you are getting poorer. Nevertheless, there is a wealth effect that stimulates domestic demand, the same way that housing wealth does.

 

However, the specific export volume effect will very likely be much more limited if most of the depreciation shows up as higher local currency prices for exports and, by implication, stable foreign currency prices.

 

As a footnote, If supply chains are well established and expensive to break, the rational response to depreciation may in fact be to keep prices steady in foreign currencies, and forego any effort to gain market share. This may explain why the export volume response to depreciation globally is much less than advertised in Econ 101, and why currencies often have to move a mile in order for the volume response to become significant.

 

With this in mind, consider Figures 1 and 2 below which look at UK and German nominal exports to fast-growing countries in local (Figure 1)...

 

 

and common currency (Figure 2) terms...

 

 

 

The fast growing economies are Australia, Canada, China, Hong Kong, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Korea, Singapore and Taiwan (the sample was one of convenience and is meant to be non-controversial). UK exports to these countries grow much faster in GBP terms than German exports in EUR terms (Figure 1).

 

However, the significantly larger post-2007 UK export growth to fast growing countries disappears when measured in a common currency (in Figure 2  we use EUR but relative performance would be unchanged if we used GBP or USD). This does not mean that there is no export volume effect, but as we noted above, the pass through of depreciation into export prices is fairly high, so the volume effects from depreciation per se may be limited. Figure 3 shows how large the UK’s conventionally measured competitive advantage was in 2008-2011. It eroded in 2012 but was still substantial.

 

 

Hence our conclusion, that whether you are a Japanese, US or US policymaker, if a weaker currency is going to be the ticket to faster GDP growth, you have to be open to the possibility that you will need lots of it. You end up with a currency war, not because depreciations have such a big impact on activity, but because you need a big depreciation to get any significant impact.

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LawsofPhysics's picture

And yet gold remains below $1,700, even as all fiats lose value.  There simply is no market for true price discovery any where on earth.  Awesome, this should end well. 

ForWhomTheTollBuilds's picture

I was just gonna write that you should expect gold to fall $10 instantly when it becomes official that another major currency is going to be devalued massively.

 

That the price of gold will be jammed down is a given.  What will be more interesting is how much they have to throw at it to keep it down or if they even can.

flacon's picture

2% inflation target in a joint

 

Ain't that the truth....Joints for all the megalopolists. 

Chief KnocAHoma's picture

So many pressure points - something has to give and soon. I'm betting the slopes lose it with each other and get after it soon. They've been fighting for so long they no longer realize why, and now they want to go at it over a bird shit covered rock.

Every few decades we gotta release: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z3qVl8Gb2J4

Protect you and yours. Hopefully our grandkids will figure this shit out if we haven't fucked it up beyond all recognition.

OpenThePodBayDoorHAL's picture

seems to me they've turned the PMs into fiat currencies with all the paper gold and derivatives out there. So there's no connection with phyz reality...like everything else these days

css1971's picture

Long De La Rue.

magpie's picture

While the FTSE displays the rise with debasement symptoms like the Nikkei...on the other hand, this may be frontrunning the downgrade that visits Cameron as a warning shot/reprisal for his EU flipflopping.

Lord Peter Pipsqueak's picture

What the article als fails to mention is the effect of the higher import prices that result after the depreciation of sterling on the exporters costs,there is minimal benefit in the long run since the UK imports most of its raw materials and these rise in price,therefore reducing the cost advantages to exporters.

The treasury and the government know this(God knows they have done it enough times),and the false arguments and justifications for devaluing the pound are always to help the exporters and drag the rest of the economy up with them,when anyone with a brain knows that the real reason is to devalue the government debts to foreigners,and allow further inflation of house prices which is all that is left of an economy for most of the UK.

BandGap's picture

What I truly do not get is the thinking behind ANYONE buying ANYTHING because the value of the currency is dropping. WTF? Country A is going to jump start it's economy because it's exports are cheaper, right? And what if country B doesn't have any money to make such purchases? This is all bnullshit. When no one is buyiong, we're all fucked.

LawsofPhysics's picture

Thanks to the Fed, nothing goes "bidless" in the western world - as Charlie Sheen would say - "Winning"

PUD's picture

more reasons for there to be a one world currency

LawsofPhysics's picture

Will there be "one world debt" as well?  Greece and the other PIIG FUU want to know.

magpie's picture

That's the problem with such world-spanning plans - in the end they only have themselves to cannibalize.

zorba THE GREEK's picture

There is only one currency market that I watch, and that is

fiat currencies vs gold.

yogibear's picture

LOL, BS 2%. A lot more. Watch it just get out of control. Bend over Japan, the inflation monster has light pole for ya.