US Macro Turns Negative - Worst In Almost 5 Months

Tyler Durden's picture




 

While the trend has been your friend in US equities for the last few months; the trend in US Macro data has also been consistent - but negative over the last few weeks. Today, for the first time in almost five months (thanks to misses on existing homes and the Richmond Fed) the US Macro index turned negative. In the past this has marked the start of the market's realization that things are not just dipping but are cycling lower. This is also the weakest 'macro' start to a year since the crisis began - and seasonally is prone to become worse not better from here. It seems, however, that the only reality that is required for any prognosticator or commission-taker is that of nominal stock prices (as self-confirming bias creating data) - just as it was in late-2007.

 

The Citi US Macro index has turned negative for the first time since early September... this shift has tended to indicate a turning point realization in the market...

 

On a seasonal basis, this is the worst start to a year since the crisis began and the trend is for considerably further deterioration...

 

Charts: Bloomberg

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Tue, 01/22/2013 - 15:22 | 3176394 jeff314
jeff314's picture

nothing is negative in USA now...

Tue, 01/22/2013 - 15:26 | 3176406 AlaricBalth
AlaricBalth's picture

Hey Bernanke! How is that QE -Infinity thingy working out for ya?
I guess there is a "flaw" in your models too, huh?

Tue, 01/22/2013 - 15:29 | 3176420 Say What Again
Say What Again's picture

I think its time for the SEC to shut down this index.  If any index doth show bad stuff, it shall be exterminated.

Tue, 01/22/2013 - 15:31 | 3176439 Say What Again
Say What Again's picture

When the VIX starts going up above 14, it shall be eliminated by decree of the SEC

Tue, 01/22/2013 - 15:35 | 3176456 Say What Again
Say What Again's picture

Its 2:30 p.m.

Time to put your "Rampathon" hats on.

Tue, 01/22/2013 - 15:47 | 3176512 optimator
optimator's picture

You can set your watch by that ramp.

Tue, 01/22/2013 - 22:07 | 3177621 Harlequin001
Harlequin001's picture

Can we stop referring to this as a 'crisis' now. It is now just plain 'normal'.

And there is no 'recovery'. What you see is what you get.

Tue, 01/22/2013 - 15:44 | 3176497 tango
tango's picture

Alaric, Ben is ALWAYS correct - like when he said there was no housing bubble or that the sub prime situation would not worsen or that Wall Street investment banks were just fine or that stocks were the place to be or that we were not in a recession.   The man is batting 1000%

Tue, 01/22/2013 - 15:46 | 3176508 optimator
optimator's picture

Trust me, it's working out perfectly for Binny Boy.

Tue, 01/22/2013 - 15:49 | 3176517 ACP
ACP's picture

It's actually working just fine. You should know by now that the purpose of QE is to fuck all of you, and give banks the tools they need to continue their criminal stock manipulation, right?

Sincerely,

Ben "Fuck You All" Bernanke

Tue, 01/22/2013 - 15:59 | 3176569 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

Macro does not matter, only Fed liquidity.   

Tue, 01/22/2013 - 17:41 | 3176937 Carl Spackler
Carl Spackler's picture

And the Fed has all the liquidity it ever needs...it's called putting new IOUs in the safe in the Chairman's office the Marriner S. Eccles building in DC.

Tue, 01/22/2013 - 16:57 | 3176779 Freddie
Freddie's picture

Tanking economy good for another 1,000 points on the Dow.  Easy.

Tue, 01/22/2013 - 15:23 | 3176395 Neethgie
Neethgie's picture

hilarious weisenthal at buisiness insider interjected with "i just can't find anything to be negative about"

Tue, 01/22/2013 - 15:25 | 3176396 idea_hamster
idea_hamster's picture

<--- I remember when the market was the leading indicator!

<--- Wut!?

Tue, 01/22/2013 - 15:23 | 3176398 vote_libertaria...
vote_libertarian_party's picture

BULLISH!!!

Tue, 01/22/2013 - 15:24 | 3176399 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

I used to get so mad at the comments on articles like these when people used to write "Bullish!" below them. Now I realize those people were smarter than me.

Tue, 01/22/2013 - 15:33 | 3176449 busted by the b...
busted by the bailout's picture

Yes.  It sure doesn't pay to be a skeptic or think too deeply about the economic situation.

Bullish = everything, all the time.

Tue, 01/22/2013 - 17:44 | 3176950 I am more equal...
I am more equal than others's picture

Deception of the masses is scary and always leads to bad things.  Taking guns by law or force will lead to worse things.  Inciting for reactionary effect will be tested.  A small reaction to forced takings will let dear leader know he's got the green light to do as he wills. 

Tue, 01/22/2013 - 15:24 | 3176401 rguptatx
rguptatx's picture

Either bullish, already-baked-in, or bullsheet! Take your pick!

Tue, 01/22/2013 - 15:26 | 3176408 Tsar Pointless
Tsar Pointless's picture

So 1500 on the S&P is assured, then.

Might even see new highs if this bad good news keeps a-comin'.

Tue, 01/22/2013 - 15:30 | 3176425 lunaticfringe
lunaticfringe's picture

Everyday, the news is either manipulated or bad. Everyday, the banks ramp up stocks. This zombie market is the worst I have ever seen in my 35 years of trading. Completely unhinged from fundamentals and reality. Fuck you Bernanke.

 

I can't wait until they bulldoze this smoldering pile of shit off a cliff and whack the reset button.

Tue, 01/22/2013 - 15:45 | 3176502 optimator
optimator's picture

53 years of market trading for me, and I'm still shocked every day.  "They" know exactlly how and when this ends.  Does anyone here know at least the final end result of all this.....it can't go on much longer can it?

Tue, 01/22/2013 - 15:56 | 3176551 busted by the b...
busted by the bailout's picture

With all your experience, I was hoping you could tell us how it will end.

It reminds me of 2007; I was astonsihed at how the market set new highs even as it was obvious the bubble was bursting.  But the market either didn't see it coming, or didn't care and kept putting money in until the collapse was underway!

It may be the same now.  No amount of foresight or obvious economic signs will deter the market until the next phase of this is well underway.  That will either be a sudden boomlet / burstof inflation, or a slow sinking back into recession, which it will be I really can't say at this point. 

The data has been too mixed to get a clear idea of the final outcome, imo.  And that may be what "they" are counting on -- no decision: no recession, no rising rates, just more of the same and continued cash infusions from Ben. 

I.e., no fear; the Bernank put abides.

Tue, 01/22/2013 - 15:48 | 3176509 B-rock
B-rock's picture

100% with you.... but I'm learning to go with the (bullshit) flow... Which means less using ZH as a gauge of market sentiment.... and simply BTFD.  ZH is 100% right -- but not if you're a trader.  We should be at S&P 1100. 

 

Again: BTFD  http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jllJ-HeErjU

Tue, 01/22/2013 - 15:49 | 3176515 tango
tango's picture

Lunatic, while I long got past my anger at the central planners (when I realized they were simply deluded and actually thought they were helping), I agree with you about zombie investing.   The banks would be stupid not to put the FED funny money into the ever rising market.  The FED has (temporarily) arranged the stars so that stocks continue to rise but the difference between the 90's bubble and this one is the investor.   

Just as the FED is now the overwhelming buyer of treasuries, the money they create makes up a larger and larger share of stock purchases.  I am long stocks and watching the market closely. 

Tue, 01/22/2013 - 15:56 | 3176552 Hohum
Hohum's picture

lunaticfringe,

What do you mean "worst?"  Is it the most unpredictable?  If it's quite predictable, you should be able to clean up.

Tue, 01/22/2013 - 17:05 | 3176798 pomlad5
pomlad5's picture

great, I see this after 15 years of trading. Fuck, next time I will earn money..........

Tue, 01/22/2013 - 15:30 | 3176430 CaptainSpaulding
CaptainSpaulding's picture

What is a macro. Isn't that a big fish or something?

Tue, 01/22/2013 - 15:51 | 3176530 Joe moneybags
Joe moneybags's picture

Agree, Captain.  Inquiring minds want to know WTF Citi's maco is made of, who makes it, when, and why.

Tue, 01/22/2013 - 16:15 | 3176636 SeattleBruce
SeattleBruce's picture

Holy Macro!

Tue, 01/22/2013 - 15:30 | 3176431 busted by the b...
busted by the bailout's picture

Anybody looked at the trannies recently?  The  1 yr chart looks almost exponential!  Why?

Is it still a leading indicator?  If so, it looks like a boom is coming.

Tue, 01/22/2013 - 16:25 | 3176670 Mi Naem
Mi Naem's picture

Yeah, I have seen that chart.  "Why" is a great question.  "For how much longer" is an even better one. 

Stretch that chart out to five years, and look at the relative volume between then and now. 

Either this uptrend is extraordinarily fragile, or retail will finally jump back in that the S&P will go to 2500 by mid year. 

I'm still counting on a correction by month's end. 

Tue, 01/22/2013 - 15:33 | 3176444 jay28elle
jay28elle's picture

Just increase POMO and other stimulative measures, keep PPT, and circuit breakers at the ready, make the SEC go after anyone who may 'discourage' the validity of the recovery, and make sure to cancel any orders that trigger on a quick down and all that is left is parabolic up.

4% ytd so far?  Ha, that's chump change compared to what this admin, Fed and congress want...

Tue, 01/22/2013 - 15:32 | 3176445 realtick
realtick's picture

turning negative, topping and negatively diverging...

http://i48.tinypic.com/2z7ecco.png

Tue, 01/22/2013 - 15:37 | 3176462 mayhem
mayhem's picture

usa usa usa!

Tue, 01/22/2013 - 15:39 | 3176474 Lost Wages
Lost Wages's picture

Awww, news always comes out like this on days when I bought stocks.

Tue, 01/22/2013 - 15:41 | 3176488 Everybodys All ...
Everybodys All American's picture

Pimco is calling for a 1.25% to 1.75 % annual GDP in 2013 and going forward think this will be the new normal for growth in the US. Astonishing.

Tue, 01/22/2013 - 17:39 | 3176934 John Law Lives
John Law Lives's picture

David Tepper reportedly is calling for up to 3% GDP growth in 2013.  I wonder what he is smoking.

 

http://mobile.bloomberg.com/news/2013-01-22/appaloosa-s-tepper-bullish-o...

Tue, 01/22/2013 - 15:43 | 3176495 Glass Seagull
Glass Seagull's picture

 

 

Buy!Buy!Buy!

Tue, 01/22/2013 - 15:48 | 3176510 Archetype
Archetype's picture

No matter how wrong this whole thing is, no matter how illogical, no matter how much math keeps talking against it, no matter how corrupt the system is - Wallstreet and Bernanke is going to win this fight.

 

Just look at that market go, it just keeps going and going and going. There is no risk in equities, ZERO. Its free money all day every day. When the retailers are coming back after missing out on the big stock boom to outer space, SP 500 is going to be at 1700. 

 

I am not saying Zerohedge is wrong (quite the opposite) all I am saying is that the wrong side is winning. All powers in the market are working on an explosion in the equity market of epiq proportions. Equities are going to explode upwards and that is just the beginning.

 

And as I am writing this BOE is flagging for moore QE.

Tue, 01/22/2013 - 15:52 | 3176529 sunny
sunny's picture

Yeah, what he said.  I don't want to hear about fundamentals, about logic, about rational behavior.  Macros suck.  Stocks are flying high, the euro is safe and Japan is our future model, print-print-print.  Why not, the banks are happy, right?

sunny

Tue, 01/22/2013 - 16:29 | 3176680 SeattleBruce
SeattleBruce's picture

"Stocks are flying high, the euro is safe and Japan is our future model, print-print-print."

So this will be the mother of all bubbles - global - and will explode in a most nasty, and global way...yikes, look out below.  Best have a good safety net handy, unless you're the best market timer ever.  Who knows, maybe like Weimer, the stock markets will actually hold up somewhat against a coming hyperinflation (although gold much better imho.)  Unlike Weimer, or Japan (the Model) there'll be no other country to hide in - however long the deflation/recession/depression trudges along, when TPTB decide to let this thing go like a massive rubberband snapping back to reality, that hyperinflation will hit the whole world in order to do away with the massive debt overhang, and 'clear the decks.'  Yup, better have a good safety net in place.

Tue, 01/22/2013 - 17:34 | 3176921 Carl Spackler
Carl Spackler's picture

"Stocks are flying high, the euro is safe and Japan is our future model, print-print-print."

 

The Japan model will crash before our future arrives. 

To quote Kyle Bass, "More adult diapers were sold in Japan last year than childrens' diapers, and their sovereign debt to GDP is 24:1 with interest expense gobbling up 25% of all tax revenue at a 30-year yield of 3%. (So, Bass believes within the next 24 months, and I believe him.)

The Japan reverberations will then get in the way of Bernanke's printing.  A G-7 tree falling makes a very loud sound no matter where you are standing.

What I can not yet figure out is whether having the biggest military in the world, at that point, will be good for the USA or bad.

 

 

Tue, 01/22/2013 - 15:50 | 3176518 falak pema
falak pema's picture

BI does an article on golf's millionaires and the divide between what they earn on the circuit and what they earn endorsing equipment manufacturers; aka as RENTIERS.

Guess who is the biggest rip off artist ?

1° TW /  9.1 million earned in comp , 77 million endorsed.

2° FM / 5.3 Millon earned in comp,  40 million endorsed. 

That's capitalism of rentiers... Highest-Paid Golfers In Endorsements - Business Insider

Tue, 01/22/2013 - 16:02 | 3176583 Mr. Hudson
Mr. Hudson's picture

Who anymore follows charts?

Tue, 01/22/2013 - 16:07 | 3176599 PTDBDucks
PTDBDucks's picture

Can negative divergence on the long term Index charts go on for two years?

Has Mr. B buggered things so badly with new money?

Tue, 01/22/2013 - 16:13 | 3176629 MFLTucson
MFLTucson's picture

As expected after the liar in chief was able to fake the public out with false reports during the election.

Tue, 01/22/2013 - 16:32 | 3176689 SeattleBruce
SeattleBruce's picture

"the liar in chief was able to fake the public out"

Something makes me think, this was no great feat.

Tue, 01/22/2013 - 17:03 | 3176802 Ignorance is bliss
Ignorance is bliss's picture

Only the people fully vested in the macro reality have a problem. Those fully funded in the s&p are doing peachy. Red pill =macro. Blue pill = s&p 500. Get it Neo?

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