And The Reason For Today's Five Years Initial Claims Low Is...

Tyler Durden's picture

... is not the economy, which as we pointed out earlier just crossed into "worst recovery ever" territory, or even actual layoff events. The reason is, as always when there is a massive "beat" in any US economic data, the same tried and true estimation magic out of the BLS appearing so conveniently at appropriate times, which estimated the claims numbers of 3 states, among which those of the most populous: California.

From Bloomberg: "The number of applications was estimated for California, Virginia and Hawaii because of the holiday-shortened week, the Labor Department spokesman also said."

In other words, upcoming revisions due to "holiday shortened" estimations and seasonal adjustments will be epic, but by then no algos will care. More to the point - the administration is literally throwing the kitchen sink to 'restore confidence' that Bernie is still alive and walking.

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
mayhem_korner's picture



What happens when they run out of kitchen sinks?

withnmeans's picture

I often wonder how these "commentators" on Bloomberg, CNBC, and all, can keep a straight face reporting these numbers "along with other results". Do they feel threatened, or are they just that naive, there is no good reporting anymore.

trav777's picture

UE is comin down, ppl.  The recovery is in force.  Now, I know it doesn't look like a "real" recovery just like Obama doesn't look like a "real" President, but that was the old America.

In New America, numbers and data and facts don't matter.  Because those facts might be racist.  Or they might come from the way things were in Old America.

In Old America, if someone wasn't working, they were unemployed.  That's not true anymore.  In New America, you're only unemployed if they feel like counting you, if counting you or your existence serves their agendas.

Facts only exist in New America to serve agendas.  And a fact isn't the same as what a fact used to be.  Now a fact can unexist if it offends someone.  Also if a fact isn't liked, it can unexist.  And if Democrats and Republicans agree on a fact, then it is metaphysically true now.

Leopold B. Scotch's picture

Numbers mean whatever Progressives want them to mean.   Very much agenda driven.  The ends justify the means.  


And republicans aren't much better.

Boba Fiat's picture

Woo hoo!  Made the Drudge Report. 

redpill's picture

crap, that means site performance will suck today. Oh well, enjoy the hits Tylers.

Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

And the reason why there are no jobs?

Let's start with the '92 election when Poppy Bush threw it because the Dems would not support Nafta. And just like today's Neo Libs will push war Dems then let Clinton ram Nafta threw as his first act as Potus.

Now that we have that covered we can address the Fed: A private for profit bank that at the behest of a corporate ruled government issues the currency of a sovereign State (however against the Constitution).

Then this bank creates an artificial crisis after allowing bubble after bubble to form inside its Fiat System and takes taxes (also unconstitutionally) and gives the cash to banks so they can have assets to balance their liabilities. Let's also remember the Fed changes accounting requirements so losses can be discharged, thus maintaining the status quo.

But remember that "Fiat System"? It began when FDR stole everyone's gold and then slashed the value of the currency in half, starting the Great Depression in earnest. Fast forward to 1971 and Nixon finishes off the dollar by taking it off the international gold standard. This left the people of the world at the behest of a Fiat Currency System and inflation drove prices up while jobs were off shored.

So now the best action we can take is to get our real currency back. We must take back the real money supply from this Banking Cartel. Gold and silver have always been money and will always be money and if we can take it from the banks then we will have economic freedom to build our world back the way it was meant to be.

Take back your freedom!

But Silver!

Mrmojorisin515's picture

yep, drudge is like an english tabloid without the half nude photos as he cherry picks what he reports.  I sent him a link for zerohedge years ago with regards to the corruption at JP Morgan, he never posted it

fuu's picture

I see some people still think Matt is some sort of journalist. Oh well.

vato poco's picture

I'd rank him higher on the journalist scale than the MSM douches who squael like teenage girls whenever they see our Dear Leader. And refuse to ask him questions he might find uncomfortable. And actively cover up/spike the hundreds of stories of gross incompetence, cronyisnm, and massive corruption that his administration is riddled with. And then hump his leg whenever possible.

So let's recap: Malignant narcissist 'Leader': check. Tame and fawning state-controlled media always advancing the Leader's agenda: check. "Official" government statistics universally regarded as pathetic lies: check. But sure, you're right - the one guy who reports on any/all of this "isn't a journalist". I'm sure you'll do juuuuust fine here in these Banana Republic States of Amerika. Idiot.

fuu's picture

Yeah that one voice of truth out there. Sometimes you people crack me up.

vato poco's picture

Wait, what? I thought you people were all about "Let a thousand flowers bloom"?? You hypocrite morons crack me up.

fuu's picture

WTF are you babbling about? You dragged Mao into an exchange about Matt Drudge and whether he should fuck off or not?!?

<backs away slowly>

vato poco's picture

....or, to put it more accurately, "runs away and hides like a little bitch". Fixed it for ya.

fuu's picture

Yeah you really showed me, all this time I just thought Matt was a gossip columnist who got used in a power play.

Leopold B. Scotch's picture

I always love critics of Drudge who come down on him real hard and, yet, what they say about him describes very little (if any) of what Drudge actually does.

Drudge is an editor for his own front page, no different than an editor of a typical newspaper -- especially smaller ones that include a ton of A.P, Reuters, etc., content they don't produce.  Only Drudge hardly ever does any writing or commentary of his own.  He merely sifts through and links to content he finds relevant.  He is nothing more than a news aggregator. 

You may not like what he sources, but plenty of people read the content he promotes and they like it.  But really, what is the NYT but a progressive opinions and spins aggregator?   Sure, some of their stuffis home-grown spin and opinion, but its the same idea. 

Everyone has an agenda.  Matt wears it on his sleeve while the NYT, etc. all pretend there some sort of middle of the road, unbiased rag wtih nuetral integrity.  PUULEEEEEAASE!

vato poco's picture

Because this:

Rules for Radicals #12: Pick the target, freeze it, personalize it, and polarize it.

Rules for Radicals #5: Ridicule is Man's most potent weapon.

and most importantly, Rules for Radicals #8: Keep the pressure on. Never let up.


It's how GW Bush and Quayle are "stupid", but Biden and Maxine Waters are merely "colorful gaffe machines."

Randall Cabot's picture

The jew supremacists collaborated with Eichmann and he ends up being hanged by them because he knew too much:



In 1944, Labor Zionist Reszo Kasztner (a.k.a. Rudolph Kastner) negotiated with Eichmann, offering silence on Nazi plans to deport 750,000 Hungarian Jews to Auschwitz in return for Eichmann's promise to send prominent Jews to Switzerland. In 1946, Kasztner reported his activities to the World Zionist Organization. In 1953, the Israeli government on Kasztner's behalf sued a Hungarian Jew for libeling Kasztner as a Nazi collaborator, but the judge found him a collaborator. He was assassinated by right-wing Zionists but the Labor-Zionist dominated Supreme Court ruled posthumously on his appeal. He didn't collaborate because "no law . . . lays down the duties of a leader in an hour of emergency toward those who rely on leadership and are under his instructions" (Ben Hecht, Perfidy, p. 272). But he did perjure himself in a Nuremberg affidavit on behalf of an SS man


 After the Holocaust began in 1942, Eichmann dealt regularly with Dr. Rudolf Kastner, a Hungarian Jew, whom he considered a "fanatical Zionist." Kastner was later assassinated in Israel as a Nazi collaborator. At issue then, however, was the bargaining over the eventual fate of Hungary's Jews, who were slated for liquidation in the Nazi-run death camps. Eichmann said this about Kastner, the Zionist representative, "I believe that [he] would have sacrificed a thousand or a hundred thousand of his blood to achieve his political goal. He was not interested in old Jews or those who had become assimilated into Hungarian society. 'You can have the others,' he would say, 'but let me have this group here.' And because Kastner rendered us a great service by helping keep the deportation camps peaceful. I would let his groups escape."      

Shizzmoney's picture

I often wonder how these "commentators" on Bloomberg, CNBC, and all, can keep a straight face reporting these numbers "along with other results".

I shun to think what the number is; but I am sure on the checks these "journalists" cash every two weeks, the number would be enough for even the most honest of men to keep a straight face and book a 7pm at Morton's with the full confidence you could afford the 22oz NY Sirloin with a pricey glass of Merlot on a Friday night.

hannah's picture

"I often wonder how these "commentators" on Bloomberg, CNBC, and all, can keep a straight face reporting these numbers...."


they just read what is on the telepromter. in other words...

"san diego...go fuck yourself."

ghengis86's picture

Buffet's Bathtub and his Tub Girl?

Hangfire's picture

Home Depot, where the "day laborer" standing in the parking lot makes more money than the hourly employee working the store.

GolfHatesMe's picture

We change the definition of the word Sink

I almost remember what Default used to be

FL_Conservative's picture

So let me get this straight.  The market is "happy" because, in part, the current and extended claims are down (which means that the Fed should be cutting off the excess reserve pipeline shortly, which I thought was "bad" news), and next week, when the stats get revised and show the impact of a full week of government (in)activity, when the claims INCREASE, then the market with be "happy" because it means the Fed isn't cutting off the excess reserve pipeline.  Have I got that correctly?? 

/sorry for being rhetorical

Mrmojorisin515's picture

i think we should stop using the word market and replace it with FED, might make more sense that way

Cursive's picture

California is the biggest population, but Virginia is no slouch either.  Not to worry, both of these blue states probably have incredible new job growth to usher in the new year and Obama's second term.

ihedgemyhedges's picture

Calif creating all sorts of jobs.  Law firms hiring divorce attorneys left and right.  Fakebook hiring attorneys to fight the lawsuits against them for causing divorce rates to soar................

Renewable Life's picture

California is a god damn mess, I know, because I live here and have been doing business here for 15 years!  State and local taxes are out of control, crime is insane, just had one of our company trucks stolen off the driveway of one of our homes, the cops are so geared up, they look like they are going to work everyday in Kabul or libya, not an American City!  I wouldn't put my children in any of these schools out here, public or private, you can say what you want about inflation, but food, trash, water, and energy costs are crazy as hell!  $150 a month for trash service, $150 a month for metered water, $250-$400 a month for electric depending on the season, gas hasn't been under $3.50 a gallon in 5 years AND will be back up close to $5 a gal by summer! Rents are $1400-$2000 a month for shitty 1300 sq foot homes or less, depending where you are!  

Its just a fucking mess, I'm in a tax bracket that California politicains think needs to be taxed at 60%, I'm out of here, the second we can wrap up some busiuness contractual obligations and we are relocating our primary residence and businesses to either Nevada or Washington State! If this is the recovery and the New California, you can have it, I'm out!

Renewable Life's picture

Did the mention the homeless problem, fuck it, you get the point, its a god damn mess out here!

JPM Hater001's picture

This is my shocked look


- -


youngman's picture

Obama´s people do not eat at home....skittles the 7-11

trav777's picture

speakin of skittles and 711s...there was a cabbie shot in NY by a hoodie wearing thug who looked just like the Late Saint Trayvawn.  Dash cam got him

SilverIsKing's picture

Do they provide the estimates for these states as well as a comparison to prior weeks?

azzhatter's picture

I actually expect these numbers to "look" better for a while. A lot more part time jobs equals lower UE. But no purchasing power

Stuart's picture

Look, people need to understand these reports, whether the monthly payroll report, inflation, GDP or whatever .... they are now almost exclusively political reports fabricated for spin, driven by central planners.  The intervention in the bond markets to artifically keep rates low and the efforts to keep a cap on commodities in the midst of massive central bankers is further evidence.  It's our world these days.   Perception Management is the campaign they are waging.   Gold should be doing a moonshot with so much money and everyone asking (or at least they should be) why does it take 7 years for Germany to re-patriate a relatively small amount of gold.   Few are thinking, most are just reacting like lemmings.  Perception management at work.  Central planners are counting on that. 

Shizzmoney's picture

Perception management at work. This was also used to be known as, "Bullshitting 101".

Actually, maybe I could start up a funding for the Ben Bernanke School of Perception Management!

Williambanzai7 would be the dean (as he can spot bullshit a mile away, and put it in a nice photoshopped format).

Curriculum includes:

- Data Fudging 101 (taught by Hilda Solis)

- Market Manipulation Spin Journalism (taught by Jon Hilsenrath)

- Reassurance Training (taught by fmr Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson and a drop-in lecture by actor, Kevin Bacon, of "Animal House" fame)


Acet's picture

Look around at the people all around you:

You can't really see them bleating but you can almost hear it ...

hannah's picture

no..... they are bleating in my area.

Hohum's picture

I think the seasonal adjustment is more important.  NSA year over year is UP.

Mike in GA's picture

I thought this kind of 3-state Bullshittery was reserved for special occasions like pre-election time.


crazyroadlizard's picture

OMG - i love the word "bullshittery" - outstanding choice.

+1 for expanding my vocabulary!  :)