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Blow-Off Top? Or Just Another Run-Stop? AAPL 12% Drop!
Reporting after hours are:
MSFT (link):
- EPS beats $0.76, Exp. $0.74,
- Revenue misses $21.46 bn vs $21.64 bn estimate
- Q2 Window revenue $5.88 billion
- Microsoft reaffirms fiscal year 2013 operating expense guidance of $30.3 billion to $30.9 billion.
- Entertainment and Devices Division posted revenue of $3.77 billion, down 11% Y/Y - need XBOX 1080 now?
AT&T (link)
- EPS misses $0.44. Exp.$0.45
- Revenue beat $32.58 bn vs $32.24 bn estimate
- Sees 2013 Revenue growth of 2%, capital spending in $21bn range
- In the quarter, the company activated a record 8.6 million iPhones, with 16 percent new to AT&T
- Says 31.7 million, of all smartphone subscribers, are on usage-based data plans vs 22.1 million a year ago
- May complete $300MM buyback as early as mid-year
Starbux (link)
- EPS of $0.57 inline with expectations
- Revenue misses $3.8 billion vs $3.84 bn estimate
- Sees 2013 year end EPS of $2.06-$2.15, Exp. $2.16
- Q1 comps up 6%, expects slight operating margin improvement in the Americas and EMEA segments
- Forecasts some operating margin contraction in China/Asia Pacific, driven by the shift in equity mix towards company-operated stores as well as costs associated with accelerated store growth in China.
- Capital expenditures of ~$1.2 billion for the full year
* * *
Amid the deafening screams of hundreds of hedge fund managers looking for any hedging port in an AAPL storm, stock indices (expect the Nasdaq) surged to new highs from the moment the US day-session began until POMO was complete and European markets closed. Volume and block size was large as we took out S&P 500 highs up to 1500 and it appeared we ran out of the short-term proverbial great fool. In general, risk-assets and stocks were well correlated though the big disconnect today was a rising VIX. HY Credit did not play along with the exuberance early on either - as it seemed relatively clear that any and every trick in the book was being used to enable more out of the AAPL boat as we ramped up to VWAP. Once Europe had closed, AAPL slid, stocks slid (with S&P 500 dropping its most of 2013 so far), and risk-assets in general slid lower. JPY weakness and EUR strength helped support risk but Treasury yields falling back and a drop in commodities overall (Gold -0.9% on the week) had the opposite effect. The typical late-day ramp failed despite the best efforts of vol compression as stocks closed almost unch, at VWAP, in line with risk-assets (ahead of tomorrow's LTRO news). AAPL at lows as ramp failed...
S&P 500 futures took off from the day-session open, topped at end of POMO and European close, retraced it all... then levitated back to VWAP close...
Early on it was HY Credit and Vol that ignored stocks (as FX and rates markets tracked it higher and back down)... They tried to ramp HYG to keep things alive into the close - but VXX, TLT, and SPY all recoupled by the close...
AAPL retested its early morning lows as we closed...
VIX made a decent run back lower in the late-day as every effort was tried to lift stocks...
Commodities were weak - odd given USD weakness. Gold and Silver weakness suggests margin calls perhaps on AAPL-based holdings...
But across broad risk-assets in general, today saw no major disconnect as risk correlations picked back up once again in their systemic way...
Completing the humor is the epic collapse in the Yen today, which after soaring on the disappointing open ended BOJ intervention which is very much unopen for another 11 months until 2014, today for some reason decided to plunge back to levels worse than when the BOJ disappointed the market. USDJPY down 2.6% in 20 hours:
Charts: Bloomberg and Capital Context
Bonus Chart: SPX/VIX appears to have hit an interesting level of exuberance...
Bonus Bonus Chart: Post-QE3, The Dow Transports are up 12.25%, Nasdaq down 1.7% and the S&P and the Dow up around 1.8%...
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Absolute ludacris price action today.. VIX was bid up by retail and CNBC cheerleading
but roubini still bearish - Roubini from Davos: "problems are global, but policies are national {Video} | http://hedge.ly/Tr3s6W
If only we could have global policy...
R: "...interdependence implies that problems are global, but policies are national. Coordinating among different countries will be increasingly difficult. It leads to political, economic and financial tensions like currency wars that can lead eventually into protectionism."
Sounds a lot like the reasoning that lead to TBTF. If there's problems in the system, just make it bigger!
Pleased to meet you, can you guess my name?
Lord of the Flies ?
Sympathy for the Devil
by Mick
Thursday Apple Thursday...
Start of the END!
S&P at 1600 then the end, the S&P has this ridiculous thing about breaking new highs when the writing is on the wall and then plunge hard, except this time it's going to implode even harder.
Ralph Wiggum on a slide.
Wheeee!!!
Unpossible
$20 that cocksmoke Tim Cook is in a mirror somewhere trying to do his best Jobs impersonation.
They still managed to shithammer Vix Futures into the close....the day of reckoning is nigh.
yes and AAPL longs are still looking for an exit
no bounce
I love the smell of momo panic in the morning.
It's such a convenient allegory; the apple starts as a small bud on the tree, growing many times its original size into a beautiful, shiny, lucious commodity. But once it gets too big it falls to the ground, where it rots and is eaten by worms.
If only the allegory were about a kitty cat instead, then we might get a dead cat bounce. Doesn't look like it though.
I resemble that remark
Redpill, that's not an allegory: its the story of each of our human lives on earth. Kind of depressing, actually.
Oh please, real life is much more depressing than that. We spend way less time on the tree and much more time on the ground rotting, when you think about it. So let's just stick to the apple, hmm?
Let me just put on my beret, light a candle, light a gauloise and put on sun glasses. Oh yeah, music.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O0XuIp9WBS0
Now I shall read you poems and complain about the waiter.
Out with the old, in with the mold.
Mold gotta eat, same as worms.
Live fast, die young and leave a beautiful corpse.
I don't see real apples getting any hot fucking Fed juice injections. If that were the case, real apples would be the size of fucking watermellons, and the tree would represent the fucking middle class taxpayers holding all that fucking weight up on the branches.
Fuck you Ben, asshole.
Be patient, Monsanto is working on it :)
I thought it was a wierd day too....dumping PM´s for Netflix??????....people are pessimistic..but they are all in the market?????
Just another stinky Swiss day in the Alps
Dramatic panoramic mountian views...pfft.
<adjust beret, simulatiously light four more gauloise to make sure smoke cloud is thick enough to kill small animals and children. Then complain about the sunset and flag the waiter>
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X4rEq3Erfds
Friday closing will be nothing but blood bath.
FB looking like a good short again soon.
FYI, those numbers Tyler posted at the top are of the bullshit, "this is something CNBC would report" ex-items variety. AT&T lost $0.68 per share. If you believe that AT&T, like Verizon, will be able to dump their entire pension fund on the government, then go ahead and report an "ex-items" number. Otherwise the two companies have lost $8.1 billion collectively this quarter.
Losing only $8.1 billion is good - right? Obam lost 4 times that on GM. That was good too. Bullish! Forward!
...Soviet!
I'll go with your "blow off top", Tyler, at least for the short term; say 1 -3 months. The Trannie Rocket simply must stop and refuel somewhere on it's vertical trajectory. And the RUT making all-time highs, is due to give us bears at least a brief reprieve. But with EBAY, AMZN, SBUX, CRM, LULU, HD, GOOG, LOW, etc. at or near all-time highs, it's hard, and costly, to be bearish.
Every company that matters has missed, bodes well for the future.
Good for +300 points on the Dow.
Companies missing earnings is the "new" bullish! Forward Soviet!
no surprise gold sells.
PMs are always pressured around UNemployment BS release dates.
Not exactly demotivational, but wtf: http://www.demotivatingposters.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/10/well.jpg :D
Total fucking crooked horseshit.
Fuck you SEC for sitting around and punching your fucking clowns while these wealth destroying assholes fuck us again. Fuckers.
Who gives a damn? Today I managed to pick up brass 9mm $14.50/50, CCI magnum primers $35/1000, CCI stingers $5.95/50, and H110 powder $14/pound.
A little humor for exasperated short-sellers (w/apologies to Randy Newman):
Short sellers got no reason
Short sellers got no reason
Short sellers got no reason to live
They got little pricks
and little eyes
They walk around
tellin' great big lies
They got big ethnic noses
and shiny gold teeth
They make up shit
then proceed to Tweet
Well, I don't want no short sellers
Don't want no short sellers
Don't want no short sellers
round here
Short sellers are not the same
As you and I
(a perma-bull such as I)
They’re mother-fuckers
until the day they die
(it's a wonderful market)
Short sellers got nobody
Short sellers got nobody
Short sellers got nobody
to fuck
They got little baby brains
and love to masturbate
But if you give ‘em a big ‘squeeze’
they’ll capitulate
They got margin call alerts
that go ‘beep, beep, beep’
They’d screw their own mothers
and cheat, cheat, cheat
They got grubby little fingers
and pee in the pool
as they circumvent the Uptick Rule
Well, I don't want no short sellers
Don't want no short sellers,
no fucking short sellers
'round here
lol AAPL buys used to support the Dow. Now that AAPL is selling hard, the Dow looks fragile.
So while the S&P and Dow have smashed through 2012 highs, the Nasdaq is lagging. In a total HFT disconnect from reality trade and tight liquidity driven market (DXY bids). The AAPL and Nasdaq selling is a bearish sign. I'm watching Asia, namely HK and Shanghai (all overbought) for panic sells and geopolitical issues (Nth Korea being used by China to f*ck with Japan). Just a reminder, liquidity providers are human, any manic HFT offers as longs get cut...POMO supports will be crushed.
-----------I am in equities big time.
-----------I am investing in something else.
Bottle caps and broken glass, can't lose. Thinking of branching out into gum. Keep it diversified.
The horror... The horror...
monday monday can't trust thAt day
monday monday can't trust thAt day