It's Official: Worst. Recovery. EVER

Tyler Durden's picture




 

If there was any debate whether the Fed's policies have helped the economy or just the market (and specifically the Bernanke-targeted Russell 2000), the following two charts will end any and all debate. As the following chart from the St Louis Fed shows, as of the just completed quarter, US GDP "growth" since the "recovery" is now the worst in US history, having just dipped below the heretofore lowest on record.

A slightly prettier version of the same chart created by JPM's Michael Cembalest, is presented below:

 

But fear not: it is only the worst recovery ever for anyone unlucky enough to still rely on such Old Normal concepts as the "economy" to feed, clothe and provide shelter for themselves.

For those lucky 1% of the US population whose entire wealth is in financial assets (and who once again managed to avoid a tax hike on carried interest or any actual financial assets), times have almost never been so good.

Well, it's not the biggest surge in the market since the economic trough in history, but it is close. Which as Bernanke admitted some time ago (when discussing the level of the Russell 2000), is the only thing that actually matters to the Fed.

Yet oddly enough, the trickle down from the trillions in excess wealth created for those who hold financial assets, as a result of daily POMOs pumping some $85 billion, and soon more, into the stock market each month, has yet to materialize.

Oh well: just keep on doing more of what you are doing Uncle Ben, and if possible destroy the US economy even more than you already have - at this point, at least on a relative basis, you can't destroy it more.

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Tue, 01/29/2013 - 00:39 | 3193959 MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

ARRRrrrrgh - contrary-contrarian MADNESS

Poe's law - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

tricksie hobbitses!

Thu, 01/24/2013 - 19:29 | 3184111 prains
prains's picture

There was a recovery ?????????????????

Thu, 01/24/2013 - 22:23 | 3184550 vic and blood
vic and blood's picture

I hear the Romans called war bellum because it wasn't pretty. In the same spirit, we call a decline, a recovery. There is nothing new under the sun. I am certain that we will notice many other parallels with the Roman Empire. Hannibal ad portas!

Thu, 01/24/2013 - 13:26 | 3182906 STG5IVE
STG5IVE's picture

You've got a great website.  You should compile all those stats into a daily digest for anyone who would be interested in subscribing.  I know I would.  You could probably even earn a little bit of revenue from it through ad sales.

Thu, 01/24/2013 - 13:27 | 3182910 STG5IVE
STG5IVE's picture

http://www.dailyjobcuts.com

 

You've got a great website.  You should compile all those stats into a daily digest for anyone who would be interested in subscribing.  I know I would.  You could probably even earn a little bit of revenue from it through ad sales.

Fri, 01/25/2013 - 08:49 | 3185185 goldenbuddha454
goldenbuddha454's picture

I'd like to see Bernanke standing on an aircraft carrier announcing "today is the official end of POMO Combat operations in the U.S.".

Fri, 01/25/2013 - 08:49 | 3185186 goldenbuddha454
goldenbuddha454's picture

I'd like to see Bernanke standing on an aircraft carrier announcing "today is the official end of POMO Combat operations in the U.S.".

Thu, 01/24/2013 - 10:32 | 3182364 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

 

 

Actually, you only need a pocketful of 16...er 20...er 25 platinum coins.

Thu, 01/24/2013 - 10:44 | 3182418 madcows
madcows's picture

What's her last name? I'll look it up.
 You know, I don't really recall. Starts with an S! Let's see. Swim? Swammi? Slippy? Slappy? Swenson? Swanson?
Maybe it's on the briefcase.
Oh, yeah! It's right here.
Samsonite! I was way off! I knew it started with an S, though.

Thu, 01/24/2013 - 12:21 | 3182710 Buck Johnson
Buck Johnson's picture

LOLOLOLOLOL, your dead on dead on.

Thu, 01/24/2013 - 13:10 | 3182854 SilverFish
SilverFish's picture

Ya know Lloyd, just when I think you couldn't possibly be any dumber, you go and say something like this.

 

 

AND TOTALLY REDEEM YOURSELF!!

Thu, 01/24/2013 - 10:30 | 3182352 Thomas
Thomas's picture

Sorry for a quick thread jump: Am I the only guy on the planet who thinks that Ray Dalio just rung a damned bell by going on various media outlets promoting "equity-like returns in bonds" simply by using leverage? Sounds like the bond bubble has been declared official and in the end game. 

Thu, 01/24/2013 - 10:40 | 3182394 economics9698
economics9698's picture

I am thinking 8-10 months left to go.

Thu, 01/24/2013 - 10:55 | 3182449 THX 1178
THX 1178's picture

why?

Thu, 01/24/2013 - 12:00 | 3182654 BandGap
BandGap's picture

Why?

It could happen any day. I'm thinking it might be days or weeks given the levels the market is at right now.

Thu, 01/24/2013 - 12:26 | 3182722 eclectic syncretist
eclectic syncretist's picture

My guess is the SP500 cracks 1600 on QE4EVA and looks like it's heading to the moon, and instead starts a looooooonnnng trip back down the mountain.

Thu, 01/24/2013 - 10:42 | 3182402 Chuck Norris
Chuck Norris's picture

Sounds like the heyday in real estate.

Florida condos.  Pre construction, nothing down, no payments for two years. 

Since it always goes up, you can't lose. 

Don't worry about the payments. Just flip your contract before they're due for a handsome profit.

Thu, 01/24/2013 - 11:54 | 3182630 A Nanny Moose
A Nanny Moose's picture

Using debt to buy debt. What could possibly go wrong?

Thu, 01/24/2013 - 10:35 | 3182378 ArkansasAngie
ArkansasAngie's picture

Without the bailouts of AIG, Buffet would be in chapter 7 bankruptcy and $50 billion or so poorer.  Let's start at the top ... you might not even have to go after the bottom after you've collected all those bad debts.

Thu, 01/24/2013 - 10:39 | 3182396 LongSoupLine
LongSoupLine's picture

Nothing will stop these assholes from fucking printing their way to SPX 1500...not even the harshest of realities.

Fuck you Bernanke, Congress and all fucking corrupt regulators. Eat shit.

Thu, 01/24/2013 - 10:55 | 3182448 Thomas
Thomas's picture

Hunsader just Tweeted that somebody carpet bombed the markets with 5000 eminis

Thu, 01/24/2013 - 11:59 | 3182651 Joe moneybags
Joe moneybags's picture

5000 eminis?  What's that, about 5 minutes worth of volume?

Thu, 01/24/2013 - 11:33 | 3182573 DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

one of the better technical analyses

Thu, 01/24/2013 - 12:28 | 3182725 centerline
centerline's picture

1500 is a key level.  There might be a little sideways action here, but I don't think it will last long before we see some sparks flying one way or the other.  Keep in mind that if we rally big from here, we will be in completely uncharted waters.

If your a gambling soul, step on up.  The vix is begging for some straight-up, balls-to-the-wall options plays.

Thu, 01/24/2013 - 10:41 | 3182404 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

You can try... but I have to warn you... customer support only speaks Chinese...

Thu, 01/24/2013 - 12:11 | 3182674 BandGap
BandGap's picture

Nothing like reaching those all important milestones.

 

 

Thu, 01/24/2013 - 12:59 | 3182815 rotagen
rotagen's picture

It'll all be OK once we accept our new eastern leadership and chinaman wages.

 

http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/archives/does-china-plan-to-establish...

Thu, 01/24/2013 - 20:26 | 3184222 Ham-bone
Ham-bone's picture

Worst economic recovery

Greatest equity recovery

Greatest (worst?) debt incurred to acheive said crap recovery and fabulous equity recovery.

Plus now I'm getting taunted by my friends for buying PM's instead of equities...this sure feels like a market top as bears are dead, everybody sure Fed will never let market down...even I've given up hedging or worrying bout a market downturn (not invested but certainly not taking any insurance). 

A new downleg now and the printing would likely get pretty impressive, even for Ben.

Thu, 01/24/2013 - 10:24 | 3182330 Big Corked Boots
Big Corked Boots's picture

Recovery? What recovery?     FORWARD!

Thu, 01/24/2013 - 10:27 | 3182335 edb5s
edb5s's picture

Fuck you, Bernanke!

Thu, 01/24/2013 - 10:44 | 3182412 Shevva
Shevva's picture

I see this on every thread but it's arse about face, it should be Bernanke is fucking YOU.

Squeal piggy, Squeal.

 

Oh and don’t worry about the 1%ers in all this : http://www.dailymail.co.uk/tvshowbiz/article-2267333/Sir-Richard-Branson...

Thu, 01/24/2013 - 15:18 | 3183314 reTARD
reTARD's picture

<---------- You mean I don't get a prize? ;-)

Thu, 01/24/2013 - 10:34 | 3182370 toady
toady's picture

Exactly.

The US is still in a depression / recession, so how could the 'recovery' be anything but bad?

Thu, 01/24/2013 - 11:37 | 3182588 WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot
WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot's picture

Right. And expect to see a lot more of this type of behavior: Brawl erupts at food stamp office.

Thu, 01/24/2013 - 12:13 | 3182683 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

Oh SNAP!

Desperate times are coming.

Which, of course, will be used as a mandate for "gun control."

Thu, 01/24/2013 - 12:24 | 3182673 Seer
Seer's picture

(paraphrasing the famous quote from A League of Their Own) "Recession?  There's no recession in the US!"

Thu, 01/24/2013 - 10:50 | 3182439 Unprepared
Unprepared's picture

ReDuck and ReCover, b's.

Thu, 01/24/2013 - 10:26 | 3182332 Dr. No
Dr. No's picture

Why would anyone on this site believe the St. Louis Fed with regard to this report?  The St. Louis Fed's adjusted monetary base report showes flat money in 2012, yet everyone here calims Ben is priniting away on QEx.

Thu, 01/24/2013 - 10:32 | 3182363 babylon15
babylon15's picture

You seem to think that other countries aren't printing money, and that such policies have no effect on our economy.  Federal Reserve quantitative easing *was* sterilized for most of 2012, but quantitative easing undertaken by the Europea Central Bank and Japan was unsterilized.  So, their money supplies did increase and some people in those countries fled debasement by buying equity in other countries, hence, S&P 500 goes up.

Thu, 01/24/2013 - 10:49 | 3182437 Dr. No
Dr. No's picture

Dont begin to presume I think...wait...

 

Anyway, my only comment is this site trusts some Fed reports, but discredits others.

Thu, 01/24/2013 - 10:55 | 3182450 babylon15
babylon15's picture

Fair enough :)

Thu, 01/24/2013 - 12:58 | 3182808 Seer
Seer's picture

Yes, but the focus tends to be on the dissenters, as it should be.  You have to watch the BBC documentary on Spain's meltdown to get a better understanding of an dissenting "insider's" frustrations in warning folks.  Yes, there are a lot of folks on the outside opposing what the majority in the Fed are doing, but it's the insiders who are dissenting that give us the best view.

Thu, 01/24/2013 - 10:36 | 3182369 Theta_Burn
Theta_Burn's picture

Worst Recovery Ever...

Stop it, your ruining my BLS report buzz...

Thu, 01/24/2013 - 10:26 | 3182333 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

Yet oddly enough, the trickle down from the trillions in excess wealth created for those who hold financial assets, as a result of daily POMOs pumping some $85 billion, and soon more, into the stock market each month, has yet to materialize.

 

The materialization of that trickle down will not be pretty...unless you're into $9 loaves of bread.

Thu, 01/24/2013 - 10:42 | 3182405 ArkansasAngie
ArkansasAngie's picture

Tricle down criminal charges sounds pretty good to me.  I'm not interested in going after the small fry.  Dynamite their dad gum glass ceiling.

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