It's Official: Worst. Recovery. EVER

Tyler Durden's picture


If there was any debate whether the Fed's policies have helped the economy or just the market (and specifically the Bernanke-targeted Russell 2000), the following two charts will end any and all debate. As the following chart from the St Louis Fed shows, as of the just completed quarter, US GDP "growth" since the "recovery" is now the worst in US history, having just dipped below the heretofore lowest on record.

A slightly prettier version of the same chart created by JPM's Michael Cembalest, is presented below:


But fear not: it is only the worst recovery ever for anyone unlucky enough to still rely on such Old Normal concepts as the "economy" to feed, clothe and provide shelter for themselves.

For those lucky 1% of the US population whose entire wealth is in financial assets (and who once again managed to avoid a tax hike on carried interest or any actual financial assets), times have almost never been so good.

Well, it's not the biggest surge in the market since the economic trough in history, but it is close. Which as Bernanke admitted some time ago (when discussing the level of the Russell 2000), is the only thing that actually matters to the Fed.

Yet oddly enough, the trickle down from the trillions in excess wealth created for those who hold financial assets, as a result of daily POMOs pumping some $85 billion, and soon more, into the stock market each month, has yet to materialize.

Oh well: just keep on doing more of what you are doing Uncle Ben, and if possible destroy the US economy even more than you already have - at this point, at least on a relative basis, you can't destroy it more.

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Thu, 01/24/2013 - 10:34 | 3182366 Cursive
Cursive's picture

How many charts will it take for our Econ PhD overlords to realize that inflated digital balances are the road to serfdom and, subsequently, social upheaval?

Thu, 01/24/2013 - 10:36 | 3182373 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

Look at Apple Fall!

Look!  It's gravity!

This is what FED gravy and robot gambling get you!

There is no recovery!

There is only privatized gains with socialized losses!

Thu, 01/24/2013 - 10:35 | 3182374 Village Smithy
Village Smithy's picture

Watch "Downton Abbey" on PBS. You will see where we are headed. Serving breakfast in bed to lords and ladies and damn glad to have the job.

Thu, 01/24/2013 - 10:39 | 3182387 fuu
Thu, 01/24/2013 - 10:39 | 3182395 Everybodys All ...
Everybodys All American's picture

... and yet the liberals squeal like little school children every time they see this president. Unbelievable.

Thu, 01/24/2013 - 10:47 | 3182428 Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

Trust me, the free thinking liberals aren't happy with this bullshit, either.

I just can't wait until 2016 when a Republican president gets into the fold, and the economy starts to REALLY tank (it's going matter which side is in there) and the Obamabots (who have defended every single little blip of good news, manufactured or not) start to lose their shit again (over similiar stuff that is happening NOW, like declining incomes, job rights, job creation, lessening benefits and entitlements) when SHTF.

For the logical thinker, it's going to be both frightening, and see our punditocacy fling poo at the sound of a horn.

Thu, 01/24/2013 - 10:55 | 3182454 Tsar Pointless
Tsar Pointless's picture

"Trust me, the free thinking liberals aren't happy with this bullshit, either."

This is correct. We are not happy with this bullshit.

Thu, 01/24/2013 - 10:56 | 3182458 Everybodys All ...
Everybodys All American's picture

none of us will make it to 2016 at this rate.

Thu, 01/24/2013 - 11:08 | 3182486 Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

I also fear 2015 could be the date when this all comes to pass, especially due to the fact that folks like Geithner, Solis are jumping the ship already....with Benny Boy leaving in 2014 (My guess? He sees the writing on the wall). 

Plus, it seems like we have one of these bubble pops near the end of 2 term presidencies during the "Non-Bretton Woods" Era:

- 1987 Flash Crash (Reagan)

- 1999 Dotcom Crash (Clinton)

- 2007 Housing Crash (Bush)

IMO, these are designed to influence public opinion and funnel the hysteria of said market crashes into the greater control the wealth of the taxpayers into those at the top.

Also, the lobbyists and their corporate masters can crowbar their way into forming these "solutions" to problems easier during times of transition. 

Thu, 01/24/2013 - 11:59 | 3182649 SmoothCoolSmoke
SmoothCoolSmoke's picture

I thought 2011 was the year it all.....    well, 2012.  2013 for sure.  2014.....write it down.  Unless its 2015.  Surely by 2020.......  



Thu, 01/24/2013 - 11:08 | 3182487 Hedgetard55
Hedgetard55's picture

"Free thinking liberals".


Thanks for the chuckle. What an oxymoron. Liberals can't think, if they could they wouldn't be liberal. They feeeeeeeeeeeeel.

Thu, 01/24/2013 - 17:57 | 3183857 Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

Conservatives don't think; they follow.

And BTW, those "liberals" you speak of who follow around Obama and parrot his every deed, aren't liberals.  They are "sheep".

Google Thomas Paine.  Now THERE'S a liberal!

Thu, 01/24/2013 - 12:36 | 3182743 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

Just like with this last election, I don't the the GOP will allow a credible opposition candidate to emerge (with the exception of a controlled tea-party acting type), so I cannot imagine any of them standing a chance against Hitlery.

IMO, she sealed her nomination yesterday with her extremely well played moral outrage card.


Thu, 01/24/2013 - 23:35 | 3184738 Milestones
Milestones's picture

No Hitlery, not with O'Blah blah backing Biden. Cheek to cheek? or crook to crook, no Hitlery.        Milestones

Thu, 01/24/2013 - 10:41 | 3182397 NEOSERF
NEOSERF's picture

Probably worst ever because technically it is not a "recovery" is a Central bank induced mirage that has pumped up the most important confidence indicator and has stabilized the economy at a level that it always should have been at.   Problem now is that they can't ever take the punch bowl away which they now realize.

Thu, 01/24/2013 - 11:25 | 3182494 forwardho
forwardho's picture

A+ Neo

Mirage is the perfect metaphor.

Everyone wants to believe.  sh-t, everyone HAS to believe..


Thu, 01/24/2013 - 12:15 | 3182684 Future Jim
Future Jim's picture


There has been no jobs recovery. Not even a little bit. None of the lost jobs have been recovered. This tool at the federal reserve of St Louis can be quite handy for what little government data is still real.

BTW, QE will never end. Why would it? What incentive is there to end it vs. the incentives to continue it?

Thu, 01/24/2013 - 12:38 | 3182749 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

Well, some may not have realized it until now. Those people are known as tools (or as Uncle Joe used to say, "useful idiots").

Thu, 01/24/2013 - 10:41 | 3182400 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

Yeah, but they only pumped in 8 trillion dollars into the economy!!


That's what I wrote on that text message to Ben but did he do it? Nop...

I did everything I could... I swear...

Thu, 01/24/2013 - 10:43 | 3182410 edb5s
edb5s's picture

AAPL down 12%...there goes $50 billion of wealth!  I can't help but feel like Kramer in the Seinfeld episode in which Jerry got a bad stock tip (i.e. revelling in the misfortunes of others).

Thu, 01/24/2013 - 11:54 | 3182631 eaglerock
eaglerock's picture

I feel like I'm watching Ben do the Elaine Dance.

Thu, 01/24/2013 - 10:44 | 3182411 Sandy15
Sandy15's picture

Apple always helped lift the market.  It has been lock step with the SPX since Nov 2008, until beginning of Dec 2012.  The Bernack is still trying to hold up the market regardless of Apple stock.  When is the last time you saw Apple down 60 points but the SPX and DOW are positive at the open???????


This is why I do not trade this market anymore....... technicals DO NOT work anymore!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Thu, 01/24/2013 - 10:45 | 3182417 Uncle Zuzu
Uncle Zuzu's picture

The only recovery Bernanke cares about is that of GS stock.  #retirementplanning

Thu, 01/24/2013 - 11:31 | 3182563 Cortez
Cortez's picture

Actually, Bernank's largest holding is Altria Group.  Probably because smoking is recession proof and with increasing sales globally.

Thu, 01/24/2013 - 10:47 | 3182424 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

History repeats until it doesn't.... So why is this a surprise? The real issue is that there is no ism that would bring us back to the bubble economy. That suckah is gone for good...

Any questions?

Thu, 01/24/2013 - 11:33 | 3182574 Cortez
Cortez's picture

Yes.  Is jism an -ism?

Thu, 01/24/2013 - 12:39 | 3182753 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

Only if you masturbate.

Thu, 01/24/2013 - 10:52 | 3182445 orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

There was never a recovery.  There was a retracement of the 2007 collapse.


And what's next?  A resumption of this downturn.   Barry and Ben wanted re-election so they spent four years pumping cash into the markets.  Barry and Ben are going to regret they did this.

Thu, 01/24/2013 - 10:56 | 3182453 Tic tock
Tic tock's picture

This is the worst Recovery? No. Way. Get Outta Here!

Thu, 01/24/2013 - 11:00 | 3182465 trillion_dollar...
trillion_dollar_deficit's picture

$96 Oil in January. Repeat that to yourselves. $96 Oil in January.

Thu, 01/24/2013 - 11:59 | 3182648 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

You noticed that too? 

Thu, 01/24/2013 - 11:00 | 3182466 Mercury
Mercury's picture

Maybe standing athwart markets yelling “STOP!” isn’t such a good idea after all.

Thu, 01/24/2013 - 11:03 | 3182471 sudzee
sudzee's picture

Definately time for lower interest rates to spark the economy.

Thu, 01/24/2013 - 11:32 | 3182568 Agent P
Agent P's picture

Timing is everything in comedy.  You sir, are a genius.

Thu, 01/24/2013 - 11:07 | 3182484 Hohum
Hohum's picture

Sure it's the "worst recovery ever."  After all, net energy from oil extraction keeps falling.  Need energy to do the work to get the growth.

Thu, 01/24/2013 - 11:10 | 3182492 XtraBullish
XtraBullish's picture

Yes but I am making a fortune being long the market...what would be your point?

Thu, 01/24/2013 - 11:12 | 3182498 Manipulism
Manipulism's picture

But the all knowing Martin Armstrong says its all about the normal market cycle, no manipulation.

He must know.

He has a computer.

Thu, 01/24/2013 - 11:43 | 3182589 Agent P
Agent P's picture

But the all knowing Martin Lance Armstrong says its all about the normal market rider on the cycle, no manipulation. He must know. He has a computer one testicle.

Edit: This might have been funnier if I were able the get the strikethrough text to show up...then again, maybe not.

Thu, 01/24/2013 - 22:38 | 3184591 tip e. canoe
tip e. canoe's picture

let's see if it calls the Directional Change.

not bad so far.

if it does, methinks you owe Martin an ounce of silver so he can pay to run an ad-free blog.

Thu, 01/24/2013 - 11:13 | 3182502 XtraBullish
XtraBullish's picture

Love how the Crowded-Hedgie-Space paired AAPL-GLD trade is being unwound.....OUCHIES!!!!

Thu, 01/24/2013 - 12:12 | 3182678 viahj
viahj's picture


Thu, 01/24/2013 - 11:18 | 3182514 XtraBullish
XtraBullish's picture

1,500 S&P print !!!!

Barbecued Shorts flaming out across the board - I can hear the screams of "NO FAIR! It is being MANIPULATED!" all the way from Broad and Wall to 33 Liberty.

Thu, 01/24/2013 - 12:31 | 3182734 eclectic syncretist
eclectic syncretist's picture

Ride the wave bro.  Tried any weekly options yet?  Do it like the banksters do it!!!!

It's all the same right?  When they do it we have to absorb any losses, and when we do it, we have to absorb any losses too.

Thu, 01/24/2013 - 11:25 | 3182546 Zer0head
Zer0head's picture

LOL as S&P kisses 1500

Thu, 01/24/2013 - 11:36 | 3182569 IridiumRebel
IridiumRebel's picture

Congratulations to the S&P. 1500! I called the Benz dealer and have an appointment booked for 9PM after the dealer closes to go look at the new CLK. My AAPL is doing so well that I thought I just may say WTF! and buy one. All of my money is in this bull shit market so I think I am safe to go for it!

Thu, 01/24/2013 - 11:33 | 3182576 rsnoble
rsnoble's picture

In the meantime everyone put on your DOW14k hats and get ready for the biggest onslaught of mass recovery news when that milestone is soon reached.  

Thu, 01/24/2013 - 11:38 | 3182592 IridiumRebel
IridiumRebel's picture

I say we call it the RECRAPPERY!

Thu, 01/24/2013 - 11:39 | 3182596 alfred b.
alfred b.'s picture


      Hey barnank, go fly a 'dreamliner' !



Thu, 01/24/2013 - 11:54 | 3182628 SmoothCoolSmoke
SmoothCoolSmoke's picture

No offense Tyler, but Bernankie must pull up ZH, and laugh so hard he can barely say..... "SCOREBOARD!" (SP 1500).

Thu, 01/24/2013 - 11:55 | 3182633 Super Broccoli
Super Broccoli's picture

i just LUV' IT !!!!!

this chart, this economic collapse, these dumbass politiciens with stupid rethoric and inadequate policies show one thing : people are awesomely stupid, let's take advantage of them

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