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Bob Shiller's Healthy Dose Of Skepticism

Tyler Durden's picture




 

In a week dominated by prognosticators pointing reflexively to a nominal price index flashing green on their TV as indication that all is well in the world, Bob Shiller provides some much-needed healthy skepticism on not just the state of the housing market but the broad economy itself. While Bloomberg TV's Tom Keene presses his short-term anchoring-biased view of a world heading for much better growth and a US housing recovery that will seemingly save us all; Shiller warns we have seen this before (in 2009's housing market) and that the housing decline could go on. When Keene tries to translate the market's performance into economic performance expectations, Shiller responds "you are talking to wrong man." From the fact that we should be growing super-normally now to return to 'normal' market conditions to his view of many more years to go in this stagnation, four minutes of Shiller's historical prescience is the perfect foil to the tick-watching talking-heads exuberance (especially in light of today's dismal new home sales).

 

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Fri, 01/25/2013 - 18:15 | 3186735 surf0766
surf0766's picture

When does Soros speak about gold being in a bubble from Daaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaavos only to find out a quarter later he is buying?

Fri, 01/25/2013 - 18:36 | 3186781 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

...as soon as he gets finished with his dungeon sodomy session with the local choirboys...

Fri, 01/25/2013 - 19:01 | 3186822 Pinto Currency
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Shiller's home price index was cleverly constructed and hid much of the bubble price evidence as the bubble unfolded.

He played right along with the banking industry.

Sat, 01/26/2013 - 11:01 | 3187604 tango
tango's picture

If Shiller's index was so cleverly constructed why were warnings flying left, right and center about the housing bubble?.  Every real estate agent I know swore it could not continue (even as they sold away) for much longer.  We Monday morning quarterback so much - reminds me of all the cries that no one knew about the dangers of sub-prime or people were innocent victims.  Again, at the time, there were news stories, paper stories, warnings from every financial advisor in the land to beware the pitfalls of 1% down and 3% loans.  

Sat, 01/26/2013 - 14:51 | 3187759 Earl of Chiswick
Earl of Chiswick's picture

While Bloomberg TV's Tom Keene presses his short-term anchoring-biased view

yes indeed but where else would one find a pipe puffing, bowtied pseudo economist

Sat, 01/26/2013 - 23:41 | 3188661 FrozenOut
FrozenOut's picture

I'm sorry I don't know which book you read, but "Irrational Exhuberance" 2nd. Edn, Chapter 2 (I believe) --- the one on the housing bubble, clearly showed two things: 1, the long-term real rate of appreciation of housing was around 1% per annum (and this statistic was measured on data ending in the middle of the bubble); 2, current prices (at the time) were astonishingly above their long term average.

Fri, 01/25/2013 - 18:16 | 3186738 localsavage
localsavage's picture

NAR to bob...WTF??? buy buy buy..comision comission comission..... what part don't you understand?

Fri, 01/25/2013 - 18:19 | 3186741 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

Lloyd Blankfein will invite Shiller to "mow his lawn" before the big Hamptons gig this summer...

Fri, 01/25/2013 - 18:32 | 3186778 steve from virginia
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Schiller is too accomodating and Keene is just a stock whore. Worse than Cramer ...

Fri, 01/25/2013 - 18:53 | 3186806 yogibear
yogibear's picture

Keene is just a whore. He seems to boot-lick everyone of power and status. He and that Jewish chick, Sara Eisen, make for a disgusting pair.

It's like Lee and Cramer on CNBS.

Fri, 01/25/2013 - 18:57 | 3186813 kito
kito's picture

it might be noted that shiller is in the camp that all things will go down with the ship.....gold included......................

Fri, 01/25/2013 - 18:58 | 3186814 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

   #uck Soros and his " River Rhine" protoge<

Fri, 01/25/2013 - 18:58 | 3186815 Super Broccoli
Super Broccoli's picture

recovery in real estate ??? VIX going down ????

This guy sure lives on planet Davos !

Fri, 01/25/2013 - 19:00 | 3186820 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

Dimon says "you guys haven't fixed anything in banking" at Davos

Shiller says the home market could be on it's back for years at Davos

And Gross says "bonds are in a bubble" a few weeks before Davos

So let's see here.....  What's left?  I know!  Stocks!! 

(And, of course, Gold, that barbarous relic)

 

Fri, 01/25/2013 - 19:23 | 3186871 Bunga Bunga
Bunga Bunga's picture

Only one can win. Bet on the winner!

Fri, 01/25/2013 - 19:02 | 3186821 syntaxterror
syntaxterror's picture

Hopefully they all had nice visits with their secret bankers while they were in town.

Fri, 01/25/2013 - 19:04 | 3186831 yogibear
yogibear's picture

 

Then the producer makes Shiller look like a Bloomberg monkey with that black jacket with "Bloomberg" on it.

Why not give Shiller a Bloomberg hat and a bloomberg cup?  

 

Fri, 01/25/2013 - 19:14 | 3186850 miker
miker's picture

Shiller is actually one of the few that won't fully drink the coo-aid.  He's not a government shill but he also knows where his bread is buttered.  So I give him credit for not totally holding the party line.  Keene/CNBC; give me a break.  Why does anyone watch that crap?

Fri, 01/25/2013 - 19:16 | 3186855 gould's fisker
gould&#039;s fisker's picture

I didn't realize we still had a housing "market". Bloomturd fucking idiot--"help me out here"--fuck you, the economy fucking sucks, douchebag asshole. "A great year and a good housing market"--how far is that bow tie and the pimple on top of it up his own ass.

Fri, 01/25/2013 - 19:23 | 3186870 syntaxterror
syntaxterror's picture

Amazing how supply magically vanished. And how Loki Boy pimps out B-of-A properties.

Fri, 01/25/2013 - 19:24 | 3186876 Bunga Bunga
Bunga Bunga's picture

Better they take all off the lists .... too many Loki Boys out there.

Fri, 01/25/2013 - 19:23 | 3186873 Room 101
Room 101's picture

There's something wrong with this thread.

 

Fuck you Bernanke.

OK.  It's fixed now. 

Fri, 01/25/2013 - 23:06 | 3187233 yogibear
yogibear's picture

It's always good for bonus points.

Fri, 01/25/2013 - 19:41 | 3186896 booboo
booboo's picture

1. What happens to house prices when interest rates go up?

2. Which way, up or down will interest rate go in the next 10 years?

3. Are incomes rising as fast as "things you have to have to live"?

Now tell me where housing is going.

Even if they could pull this Jumbo jet out of a flat spin,  see #1-3

Fri, 01/25/2013 - 21:03 | 3187043 Matt
Matt's picture

#1: depends on if there is runaway or hyperinflation, housing could go up with interest rates.

#2: They could go sideways for the next 20 years, who knows.

#3: incomes are not keeping up with cost-of-living inflation (as opposed to CPI inflation). However, we're always just one mega-disaster away from mass relocations and new major reconstruction efforts.

Fri, 01/25/2013 - 20:02 | 3186942 New_Meat
New_Meat's picture

Boomberg's Keene (as is the show's policy) never calls bullshit on any guest's assertion.  To his credit, he does bring (well, sometimes) an individual with a counter viewpoint.  Mostly seems to be the booker's ability to gain a possible skosh' contrary viewpoint. 

Sat, 01/26/2013 - 12:55 | 3187760 Earl of Chiswick
Earl of Chiswick's picture

corrected your mispelling

Mostly seems to be the hooker's ability to gain a possible skosh' contrary viewpoint.

Fri, 01/25/2013 - 22:34 | 3187190 Cosimo de Medici
Cosimo de Medici's picture

What the "market is saying" is that money is free, rates are zero, and losses are backstopped.  That it is saying 'economic recovery' is the Bad Lip Reading version...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QlwilbVYvUg&list=UU67f2Qf7FYhtoUIF4Sf29c...

Sat, 01/26/2013 - 00:52 | 3187339 Dineroguru
Dineroguru's picture

This entire Davos deal is grade A bullshit.  Why do I want to listen to the same bozos that so badly fucked up the system tell me why things are getting better.  These vapid academics talk to much they convince themselves they actually know what is going on when they couldn't be further from the truth!  Let's go interview folks up and down the Main Streets in Europe and the USA  for their opinion of how Western style finance is working and leave these clowns to burry themselves!

Sat, 01/26/2013 - 11:05 | 3187609 tango
tango's picture

Yet these are the ones who control the direction of things.  The real bozos are the folks on the Street who couldn't define a derivative, tell you what continent a Euro was used in or come within 90% of the national debt.  Face it, most folks on the street are ignorant of economic issues.  They are NOT like you and me and the others who post here.

Sat, 01/26/2013 - 01:00 | 3187345 Steverino
Steverino's picture

Keene is a fucktard of the highest order...

Sat, 01/26/2013 - 01:29 | 3187376 neutrinoman
neutrinoman's picture

Davos: where the elite meet to eat reheated meaty treats -- at $12 a pop.

It's all so backward looking -- how can it not be?

Sat, 01/26/2013 - 12:58 | 3187765 Earl of Chiswick
Earl of Chiswick's picture

I would have to say that of all the finance anchors Keene is likely the whoremaster of them all - something changed cause when he was radio only his interviews were quite balanced - we guess it's that tightly wound knot of pussy hair stuck in his throat ever since he split from the misses and hooked up with ...

Sat, 01/26/2013 - 16:38 | 3188047 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

Anybody ever look up the definition of a "bank"? :)

http://www.thefreedictionary.com/bank

bank 1 (bngk)
n.
1. A piled-up mass, as of snow or clouds. See Synonyms at heap.
2. A steep natural incline.
3. An artificial embankment.
4. The slope of land adjoining a body of water, especially adjoining a river, lake, or channel. Often used in the plural.
5. A large elevated area of a sea floor. Often used in the plural.
6. Games The cushion of a billiard or pool table.
7. The lateral inward tilting, as of a motor vehicle or an aircraft, in turning or negotiating a curve.
v. banked, bank·ing, banks
v.tr.
1. To border or protect with a ridge or embankment.
2. To pile up; amass: banked earth along the wall.
3. To cover (a fire), as with ashes or fresh fuel, to ensure continued low burning.
4. To construct with a slope rising to the outside edge: The turns on the racetrack were steeply banked.
5.
a. To tilt (an aircraft) laterally and inwardly in flight.
b. To tilt (a motor vehicle) laterally and inwardly when negotiating a curve.
6. Games To strike (a billiard ball) so that it rebounds from the cushion of the table.
7. Sports To play (a ball or puck) in such a way as to make it glance off a surface, such as a backboard or wall.
v.intr.
1. To rise in or take the form of a bank.
2. To tilt an aircraft or a motor vehicle laterally when turning.
[Middle English, of Scandinavian origin.]

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