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Geithner's Farewell Present: Gold Slammed, S&P Over 1,500 On Best January In Stocks Since 1994
A close above 1500, and the last time the S&P 500 managed 8 close-to-close gains in a row was November 2004 (with the 9th higher close marking the end of the run that time). The rise of the Dow Industrials is the best January since 1994 - which saw a rather painful 10% decline in Febuary. Today saw bonds monkey-hammered to catch up (yields) to equity's strength on the week. FX markets saw more JPY weakness (-1% on the week) as EUR strength from this morning's LTRO news followed on - dragging the USD down 0.3% on the week. Commodities were mixed with Oil unch on the week, Copper down (but global growth?), and Gold and Silver slammed on what looks like AAPL collateral calls. AAPL spent the day wiggling up to VWAP and getting dumped to new 52-week lows unable to get any bid and once again we saw VIX totally ignoring the equity exuberance. Builders outperformed (+3.2%), Tech underperformed (-0.4%), as trade-size and volume were relatively low. The close with AAPL smashing lower on huge volume and ES ripping to new highs confirms the pairs-trade unwind we have been banging on about.
Best January for the Dow in 19 years...but the follow-through was not so fun...
Leaving US equities the winner across broad asset-classes from the 12/28 pre-fiscal-cliff decision... USD and Gold practically unch and Silver just losing its winning spot...
AAPL was smashed into the close...
AAPL's last three minutes saw 2.2mm shares (and 133k contracts in ES) as the bulk of the trade was done at $439.90...
S&P 500 futures waivered around VWAP once again - as once again we see the trend from the US open to European close revert as POMO finished... and the late-day smash higher in ES is simply the antithesis of the AAPL sell-off as the dominance of the long-AAPL, short-ES pair is unwound en masse...
Perhaps a little clearer here...
VIX remains notably disconnected from stocks since before the AAPL earnings news...
Today's move in Treasuries was a total collapse catch-up (in yields) to equity strength on the week...
The JPY has lost 3.4% in 2 days against the USD - quite an impressive swing relatively. EUR rallied on bigger LTRO repayment this morning which given its weight dragged the USD lower and provided some early juice for risk assets...
Even though the USD only lost 0.3% on the week, Copper doubled that loss (as opposed to relatively strengthening) and Gold and Silver were slammed...
As a reminder - things are diverging!!!! US Macro just turned negative - its worst level in five months...
Charts: Bloomberg and Capital Context
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Timmmay's farewell, compliments of the Krugman Mother Ship New York Slimes (they even have a breaking new alert in red letters on the front page):
Breaking News 4:04 PM ET
S. &. P. 500 Closes Above 1,500
Stocks Near New Heights as Small Investors Regain Faith
By NATHANIEL POPPER 10 minutes ago
Stocks HAVE been performing very well vs. gold lately. From the March 2009 market lows until now, the S&P has performed (very approximately) about as well as gold. But "cherry picking" periods to study price movements matters!
Disclosure: I hold some stocks!
"Stocks Have Been Performing Well Lately":
http://tinyurl.com/b9nx2r3
as i mentioned earlier......stocks and VIX will be up today in order to compress VIX next week into the biggest earnings week this month and pushing ES up to new highs for all of the math and research challenged sheeple
The higher the climb, the harder the fall. This bitch is going down. It will be raining bankers in NYC soon.
The bankers will be fine. They always are.
Equity indexes have more than doubled since The Bernank began flooding the zone with fiatski in 2009, which rivals the very likes of the post 1929 faux-muppet rally (before everything came completely unglued), so if anything, go long now, average Joe! (even though the article I cited above is full of shit - the market is rallying because the common retail person is all aboard, wtf).
I know this bitch is going to implode in epic fashion; my only, singular hope is that it does prior to Bernanke stepping down, so that he get as little delay in judgment on his utter and complete incompetence as possible.
I want to see a stuttering Bernank press conference while the U.S.S. Bernanktitanic is taking on massive water, when his only, singular talking point is "stawks!"
lol the fools.
they cant have it all, the more they pump this market up the higher gold is going to go, no matter the day to day gyrations.
and if they succeed in blowing up the currency gold will go even higher. its a no lose for gold owners and a no win for the printers.
That article is even MOAR funny now that it's been updated:
By NATHANIEL POPPER
Published: January 25, 2013
I'm messing with the kids, TiS.
In the comments?
If you make any comments under any of Krugman's articles that don't align exactly with Krugman's (aka Dear Leader Of Economics) sentiments, no matter how fairly & politely you challenge his dogma, he'll ban you from commenting (he'll at least try to ban those who aren't familiar with proxy servers).
Is this where I convert my subsidized stawks into subsidized gold?
Normally I don't pay much attention to this sort of thing but I find the name of the reporter rather appropriate for the article, or an interesting codeword.
Nathaniel <Rothschild> Popper <bubble, 'nuf said>.
=/
Market is rising 0.5% a day EVERY DAY - does that mean overall economy is growing that fast since market is (was) reflection of economy?.. (sarc) This is simply sickening also since when Starbacks is more significant then Apple... Good Starbacks earnings was explanation of day for stocks jumporama
Bad news for an S&P component = flat. BA - bet the company fleet grounded this past week. No idea what's causing this...up one point for the week!
I bet $1000 that the NYT article was generated by a computer.
Just ask this one question-Was he ethical?
This should drive the Indians crazy. They dont care much for equities but the drop in Auric prices will make them euphoric. The drop will also nullify the impact of rising import duties.
Next target Dow 14000 ? I will be not surprised.
That 'target' is less than 2 avg 'trading' days away.
now AAPL down = up market...ummm not too long ago it was up appl , good for market....i get it market good all the time.....well played Bennie!
Wait when apple starts rebounding they will tell you that's why market is growing now...
I know all bearish reasons and they are sound and still I do not see how this market can ever fall...
you must give it to them - they made it...
I'm also shocked that 5 words from that ugly SATAN (Mario Draghi) "Beleive me: it will be enough!!!" saved europe
Yeah, they made it to the nominal levels of 13 years ago (60% lower in real terms, not including the dead and buried of the survivorship bias cemetary), in what's a fiat juiced bear market rally.
Great excuse to break all markets, especially given how transitory this pump will be and how massively destructive the aftermath will be.
I'm still trying to figure out how, since the open Tuesday, the SP 500 went up 1.1% while AAPL went down 13%.
Gold and Silver slammed on what looks like AAPL collateral calls???
It looks like we've reached a new level of bullshit.
Caution, caution you are now leaving the eye of the storm. Prepare to put on your underwear.
So, please remember; if you shot a round of golf under par, you didn’t shoot it yourself. Someone else built that course, and someone else cut the grass so that you could play on it. Someone else built the clubs and the cart.
http://angrywhitedude.com/2013/01/katrina-looter-wins-pga-championship-3/
Tyler has a unique quality, that most don't. He incessantly repeats factual news,(with updates). I have over 500 posts from Tyler bookmarked in a special file.
Tyler reminds me to read those posts! That is how good Tyler and his crew is/are! I'm eternally gratefull.
Repetition is the mother of knowledge and the father of boredom.
Especially when your are stuck in 20' snow drifts. I was thinking about you the other day. I was talking to my Credit Union branch manager, about banking regulations. I discussed, your Canadian issues, and loss of BoC , key individuals.
I know more about banking than the " Credit Union Board does"...
LMFAO...this fucking shit is just ridiculous.
Gotta get them there STAWKS up for 401(k) Joe to get to Wal-Mart and buy some shit.
My fucking god...why the fuck doesn't Ben just DECLARE the fucking market at 20,000 DOW and be done with it.
I don't know if you've been to Walmart lately but there isn't any shit to buy. The holiday was so terrible, margin wise, that there is no cash for new inventory. Best Buy claims they will get some new CES stuff by february, but last year a lot of new models were pushed back until May, and then they never showed up. Shelves are stocked with the lowest level of inventory I have ever seen.
The only thing people are buying is guns and ammo. Those are in short supply. They are very profitable for Walmart, but if there is no inventory, you can't make a sale.
Paging Kyle Bass.
"It's already been almost two years in Japan. They have to import all their energy, and most of their food. All while the new government crushes the value of the yen to zero, in order to 'boost exports', which no one wants. Soon no suppliers will want yen for oil, gas or food. The Japanese have nothing else. Add in the massive increases in death rates – and those about to die who are too sick to work – and in another year and a half, it's all over.
You can see it now in the 50+% increases in energy and food costs on the ground. The Japanese can't afford it, and it's only getting much worse. Imagine Weimar hyperinflation in Germany between the wars, coupled with massive radioactive contamination killing everyone."
www.enenews.com
Cramer said to stay out of stocks for five years in late 2008, so i guess now is a good time to start getting back in?
GEE what happened to the ENTIRE last years worth of every talking head saying 'It's all for the election, wildly manipulated markets and data all for ObaMao, but after Nov you'll see reality come crashing back in for sure!'
All the commentary and analysis adds up to jack shit thats all!
Muppets bitchez!
Gold and Silver just walked all the way down today.....it was some sort of selloff....not a computer raid as usual....someone was exiting a position
No whining if you insist on playing in their casino......buy physical and just watch them eat each other......we're entering the cannibal cycle now and its not going to get any better
Time to sell gold/silver and buy stocks. Stocks going to the moon. Homer style bitches. Keep stacking
I just bought more silver. I just bought more platinum.
Why is there always a need to explain why gold is down based off of some weird pair trade being made or Paulsen? Monday is OPEX for paper gold and silver. They are down on temporary fraud. Same old story. Just BTFD and be glad physical is still around.
Good post" Quinvarius ".... I just goes to show how" in secret" xau and xag are being hedged! Bundsbank/BUBA was smart to withdraw their miniscule tonnage.
Am I wrong?
The fact that they are getting the gold back on a payment plan indicates they are already too late. I wonder what math was used by the Fed to come up with this payout schedule and why?
Well, the Swiss do want their gold back, too:
http://loveistheonlytruth.wordpress.com/2013/01/25/gold-bank-run-acceler...
There's already a long line. The Fed just won't cop to it yet.
Foreign central banks don't go through exchanges. They all want their gold, and they all want it NOW! And, apparently, we don't have it.
It's amazing that the peeps are so " mentally frozen". I have a photographic mind. You make good quotes occasionally.
I'll reF. One< You stated that "Tax paying "citizens< should be able to declare their "significant other"!
I'm not gay. I respect you, and your precept. You always assumed I was against you. (I wasn't)
To each (their own)
I like girls. You like both. It's ok
If the stock market is supposed to be forward looking, this summer should be killer, happy days, money overflowing, people buying everything up in sight.
The problem is, manufacturing and buying for retail is forward looking as well. Virtually nothing was bought for spring and very little has shipped. What you see on the shelf in May was supposed to be bought in October and manufactured in January, before Chinese New Year. Back to school product is bought in Febraury and manufactured in April-May. Orders for product have dropped to the lowest level I have ever seen. All of the manufacturing reports show a massive slowdown. This is what will show up in the retail pipeline in a few months. But Amazon keeps going higher, sure they will be 3000% growth with no inventory to sell. Fucking primary dealers with no brains, Ben gives us money we buy stocks hadarrr.
How do you have stocks at all time highs with true business conditions being this low? Something has to give. I will tell you that the business fundamentals leading up to the last crash were far better than they are now. I sold then and I sell now, it has never been worse during my career.
People who actually own & run businesses are laughing right now at what even the most dense amongst them NOW realize is a complete & total sham.
This is worse than 2007, because so many more asset classes are so much more massively/artificially juiced.
Dire conditions across every sector here in the UK ' but everything is going to be fine - a lady from the BOE was just on the telly saying that when Mr Carney arrives he will kick into touch the silly new bank capital requirements and print like crazy. We are fucked !
Hi ADR
I've explained this a couple of times already but I'll do it again for you.
GS sells to MS who sells to JPM who sells to C who sells to BAC who sells them back to GS. Like this Dow may go to 30k easy peasy.
Primary Dealers did the same thing in the 1920s during the great depression, to no avail of course.
Primary Dealers did the same thing in the run up to 2007 and then dumped almost everything on bear stearns and lehman and send them to the graveyard.
Primary Dealers did the same thing in 2011 when they dumped all italian bonds MFG and send it to the graveyard.
However, it can't continue forever because it leads to acute shortages of available stocks for trading hence massive layoffs in the financial industry as well as extremely high crude oil prices as we are seeing right now.
What is going to happen? Exactly the same scenario. Load up the shit on one or two weakest primary dealers and send them to the graveyard. I'm thinking Deutsche Securities and Merryll Lynch are going to be toast soon.
It's done by executive order from the white house. Nobody else has the power to crap the market.
Huh? Merrill Lynch was taken over by BofA, or rather shoved off onto them, when it became insolvent before.
check the primary dealer list
I don't need to check the primary dealer's list. JPM, Goldman, Citi and BofA are the big 4 of the U.S. too big to fails. Your prediction that Merrill is about to go bye-bye is tantamount to predicting Bank of America is going down. Very long shot prediction imo, thus my "huh?" At some point perhaps the too big to fails will no longer be backstopped. I do not believe that is currently the case.
Truth/ I went flat late Wednesday. I missed out on a huge move. I did well earlier this month , and I'm keeping my [powder dry]
She's baaack -- Goldilocks!
Nice flourish at the end, and the close above 1500 will catch some retail investor's eyes over the weekend.
It's not too late to get in!
or
It's getting harder and harder to make the case for collapse.
I think gold got slammed because people believe the economy is fixed. "We don't need gold anymore stock market is fixed, so economy is fixed." The logic doesn't make much sense, though, because if the economy actually does improve, velocity (and thus inflation) will be rampant.This looks like herd mentality/dumb money at work.
Are the sheep all in yet?
All sheep have been slaughtered.
This is wolf against wolf.
I don't know whether gold and silver were slammed because of AAPL collateral calls. However, gold and silver weakness was manifest technically since 12/20/2012 when the Dow theory flashed a primary bear market signal.
http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2012/12/dow-theory-update-for-dec-20-...
Furthermore, on Jan 23, the Dow Theory signaled a primary bear market for the gold and silver miners ETF.
http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2013/01/dow-theory-update-for-jan-24-...
Thus, it looks dubious to me that such weakness has been caused by AAPL collateral calls. Weakness, for reasons that escape me (manipulation, economy improving?) has been pervasive of late.
And so the Chineese can't dispose of me. They try to gain Info,
China is FUCKED. China {rail, electricity} is FUCKED!
I agree with all you say but question is WHEN will this implode. And yes they manage to create stability (strong illusion of) in extremely unstable environment.
I said that I was "Price action". I lost 200 pips on the crosses. I'm not stupid.
Based on the close. Borrowing rates are probably heated for the Sunday open
It is too early to know for sure how Geithner will be remembered in history, but my take is that hw was an obedient soldier to an invisible banker darth vader.
Wonder if the Geithner replacement is being groomed as a fall guy for when things go south.
I have to say, I am no longer paying attention to the S&P, and can only assume that regardless of what number it says this will end badly.
House of Mirrors,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,if anyone looks at March of 2009 and asks themselves why the market went up? Money printing or economy, why does the economy ever matter again....??
House of Mirrors,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,if anyone looks at March of 2009 and asks themselves why the market went up? Money printing or economy, why does the economy ever matter again....??
Wile E Coyote sell off awaits...
As mentioned – central bank intervention prolongs and postpones but can not oppose natural market forces indefinitely.
http://trader618.com
If it's only 1994, that means we have five more years of bubble to ride! Oh yeah!