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Geithner's Farewell Present: Gold Slammed, S&P Over 1,500 On Best January In Stocks Since 1994

Tyler Durden's picture




 

A close above 1500, and the last time the S&P 500 managed 8 close-to-close gains in a row was November 2004 (with the 9th higher close marking the end of the run that time). The rise of the Dow Industrials is the best January since 1994 - which saw a rather painful 10% decline in Febuary. Today saw bonds monkey-hammered to catch up (yields) to equity's strength on the week. FX markets saw more JPY weakness (-1% on the week) as EUR strength from this morning's LTRO news followed on - dragging the USD down 0.3% on the week. Commodities were mixed with Oil unch on the week, Copper down (but global growth?), and Gold and Silver slammed on what looks like AAPL collateral calls. AAPL spent the day wiggling up to VWAP and getting dumped to new 52-week lows unable to get any bid and once again we saw VIX totally ignoring the equity exuberance. Builders outperformed (+3.2%), Tech underperformed (-0.4%), as trade-size and volume were relatively low. The close with AAPL smashing lower on huge volume and ES ripping to new highs confirms the pairs-trade unwind we have been banging on about.

Best January for the Dow in 19 years...but the follow-through was not so fun...

 

Leaving US equities the winner across broad asset-classes from the 12/28 pre-fiscal-cliff decision... USD and Gold practically unch and Silver just losing its winning spot...

 

AAPL was smashed into the close...

 

AAPL's last three minutes saw 2.2mm shares (and 133k contracts in ES) as the bulk of the trade was done at $439.90...

 

S&P 500 futures waivered around VWAP once again - as once again we see the trend from the US open to European close revert as POMO finished... and the late-day smash higher in ES is simply the antithesis of the AAPL sell-off as the dominance of the long-AAPL, short-ES pair is unwound en masse...

 

 

Perhaps a little clearer here...

 

VIX remains notably disconnected from stocks since before the AAPL earnings news...

 

Today's move in Treasuries was a total collapse catch-up (in yields) to equity strength on the week...

 

The JPY has lost 3.4% in 2 days against the USD - quite an impressive swing relatively. EUR rallied on bigger LTRO repayment this morning which given its weight dragged the USD lower and provided some early juice for risk assets...

 

Even though the USD only lost 0.3% on the week, Copper doubled that loss (as opposed to relatively strengthening) and Gold and Silver were slammed...

 

As a reminder - things are diverging!!!! US Macro just turned negative - its worst level in five months...

 

Charts: Bloomberg and Capital Context

 

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Fri, 01/25/2013 - 17:11 | 3186509 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Timmmay's farewell, compliments of the Krugman Mother Ship New York Slimes (they even have a breaking new alert in red letters on the front page):

 

Breaking News 4:04 PM ET

S. &. P. 500 Closes Above 1,500

 

Stocks Near New Heights as Small Investors Regain Faith

By NATHANIEL POPPER 10 minutes ago

Money pouring into stocks in the last three weeks through mutual funds — the common investor’s way to play the market — has helped put the broader market within sight of its highest levels ever.

Fri, 01/25/2013 - 17:15 | 3186523 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Stocks HAVE been performing very well vs. gold lately.  From the March 2009 market lows until now, the S&P has performed (very approximately) about as well as gold.  But "cherry picking" periods to study price movements matters!

Disclosure: I hold some stocks!

"Stocks Have Been Performing Well Lately":

http://tinyurl.com/b9nx2r3

Fri, 01/25/2013 - 17:19 | 3186543 spastic_colon
spastic_colon's picture

as i mentioned earlier......stocks and VIX will be up today in order to compress VIX next week into the biggest earnings week this month and pushing ES up to new highs for all of the math and research challenged sheeple

Fri, 01/25/2013 - 17:29 | 3186581 camaro68ss
camaro68ss's picture

The higher the climb, the harder the fall. This bitch is going down. It will be raining bankers in NYC soon.

Fri, 01/25/2013 - 17:40 | 3186623 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

The bankers will be fine. They always are.

Fri, 01/25/2013 - 17:51 | 3186653 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Equity indexes have more than doubled since The Bernank began flooding the zone with fiatski in 2009, which rivals the very likes of the post 1929 faux-muppet rally (before everything came completely unglued), so if anything, go long now, average Joe! (even though the article I cited above is full of shit - the market is rallying because the common retail person is all aboard, wtf).

I know this bitch is going to implode in epic fashion; my only, singular hope is that it does prior to Bernanke stepping down, so that he get as little delay in judgment on his utter and complete incompetence as possible.

I want to see a stuttering Bernank press conference while the U.S.S. Bernanktitanic is taking on massive water, when his only, singular talking point is "stawks!"

Fri, 01/25/2013 - 18:00 | 3186692 fourchan
fourchan's picture

lol the fools.

they cant have it all, the more they pump this market up the higher gold is going to go, no matter the day to day gyrations.

and if they succeed in blowing up the currency gold will go even higher. its a no lose for gold owners and a no win for the printers.

Fri, 01/25/2013 - 18:54 | 3186807 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

That article is even MOAR funny now that it's been updated:

 

By NATHANIEL POPPER
Published: January 25, 2013

Americans seem to be falling in love with stocks all over again.

 

After millions of people all but abandoned the market following the 2008 bust, individual investors are pouring money into stock mutual funds as they haven’t in years. The flood, fueled by fading economic threats and better news on housing and jobs, has helped propel the broad market to within a few good days of its highest level ever.

 

Fri, 01/25/2013 - 20:04 | 3186944 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 I'm messing with the kids, TiS.

Fri, 01/25/2013 - 20:33 | 3187006 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

In the comments?

If you make any comments under any of Krugman's articles that don't align exactly with Krugman's (aka Dear Leader Of Economics) sentiments, no matter how fairly & politely you challenge his dogma, he'll ban you from commenting (he'll at least try to ban those who aren't familiar with proxy servers).

Sat, 01/26/2013 - 08:13 | 3187490 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Is this where I convert my subsidized stawks into subsidized gold?

Sat, 01/26/2013 - 01:01 | 3187349 awakening
awakening's picture

Normally I don't pay much attention to this sort of thing but I find the name of the reporter rather appropriate for the article, or an interesting codeword.

Nathaniel <Rothschild> Popper <bubble, 'nuf said>.

=/

Fri, 01/25/2013 - 17:42 | 3186613 Obchelli
Obchelli's picture

Market is rising 0.5% a day EVERY DAY - does that mean overall economy is growing that fast since market is (was) reflection of economy?.. (sarc) This is simply sickening also since when Starbacks  is more significant then Apple... Good Starbacks earnings was explanation of day for stocks jumporama

Fri, 01/25/2013 - 19:48 | 3186923 augustusgloop
augustusgloop's picture

Bad news for an S&P component = flat. BA - bet the company fleet grounded this past week. No idea what's causing this...up one point for the week! 

Fri, 01/25/2013 - 19:01 | 3186823 ekm
ekm's picture

I bet $1000 that the NYT article was generated by a computer.

Fri, 01/25/2013 - 17:11 | 3186511 Joe_in_Indiana
Joe_in_Indiana's picture

Just ask this one question-Was he ethical?

Fri, 01/25/2013 - 17:14 | 3186520 whatsinaname
whatsinaname's picture

This should drive the Indians crazy. They dont care much for equities but the drop in Auric prices will make them euphoric. The drop will also nullify the impact of rising import duties. 

Fri, 01/25/2013 - 17:15 | 3186524 whatsinaname
whatsinaname's picture

Next target Dow 14000 ? I will be not surprised.

Fri, 01/25/2013 - 17:28 | 3186584 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

That 'target' is less than 2 avg 'trading' days away.

Fri, 01/25/2013 - 17:31 | 3186595 max2205
max2205's picture

now AAPL down = up market...ummm not too long ago it was up appl , good for market....i get it market good all the time.....well played Bennie!

Fri, 01/25/2013 - 17:40 | 3186626 Obchelli
Obchelli's picture

Wait when apple starts rebounding they will tell you that's why market is growing now...

I know all bearish reasons and they are sound and still I do not see how this market can ever fall...

you must give it to them - they made it...

 

I'm also shocked that 5 words from that ugly SATAN (Mario Draghi) "Beleive me: it will be enough!!!" saved europe

Fri, 01/25/2013 - 17:56 | 3186678 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Yeah, they made it to the nominal levels of 13 years ago (60% lower in real terms, not including the dead and buried of the survivorship bias cemetary), in what's a fiat juiced bear market rally.

Great excuse to break all markets, especially given how transitory this pump will be and how massively destructive the aftermath will be.

Fri, 01/25/2013 - 17:13 | 3186517 SmoothCoolSmoke
SmoothCoolSmoke's picture

I'm still trying to figure out how, since the open Tuesday, the SP 500 went up 1.1% while AAPL went down 13%.

Fri, 01/25/2013 - 17:16 | 3186527 BigPerm
BigPerm's picture

Gold and Silver slammed on what looks like AAPL collateral calls???

It looks like we've reached a new level of bullshit.

Fri, 01/25/2013 - 17:16 | 3186529 1835jackson
1835jackson's picture

Caution, caution you are now leaving the eye of the storm. Prepare to put on your underwear.

Fri, 01/25/2013 - 17:38 | 3186608 ZeroAvatar
ZeroAvatar's picture

So, please remember; if you shot a round of golf under par, you didn’t shoot it yourself. Someone else built that course, and someone else cut the grass so that you could play on it. Someone else built the clubs and the cart.

 

http://angrywhitedude.com/2013/01/katrina-looter-wins-pga-championship-3/

Fri, 01/25/2013 - 17:19 | 3186540 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 Tyler has a unique quality, that most don't. He incessantly repeats factual news,(with updates). I have over 500 posts from Tyler bookmarked in a special file. 

  Tyler reminds me to read those posts! That is how good Tyler and his crew is/are!  I'm eternally gratefull.

Fri, 01/25/2013 - 17:21 | 3186556 ekm
ekm's picture

Repetition is the mother of knowledge and the father of boredom.

Fri, 01/25/2013 - 17:31 | 3186594 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 Especially when your are stuck in 20' snow drifts.  I was thinking about you the other day. I was talking to my Credit Union branch manager, about banking regulations. I discussed, your Canadian issues, and loss of BoC , key individuals.

  I know more about banking than the " Credit Union Board does"...

Fri, 01/25/2013 - 17:21 | 3186551 Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

LMFAO...this fucking shit is just ridiculous.

Gotta get them there STAWKS up for 401(k) Joe to get to Wal-Mart and buy some shit.

My fucking god...why the fuck doesn't Ben just DECLARE the fucking market at 20,000 DOW and be done with it.

Fri, 01/25/2013 - 17:28 | 3186580 adr
adr's picture

I don't know if you've been to Walmart lately but there isn't any shit to buy. The holiday was so terrible, margin wise, that there is no cash for new inventory. Best Buy claims they will get some new CES stuff by february, but last year a lot of new models were pushed back until May, and then they never showed up. Shelves are stocked with the lowest level of inventory I have ever seen.

The only thing people are buying is guns and ammo. Those are in short supply. They are very profitable for Walmart, but if there is no inventory, you can't make a sale.

Fri, 01/25/2013 - 19:09 | 3186838 Not Too Important
Not Too Important's picture

Paging Kyle Bass.

"It's already been almost two years in Japan. They have to import all their energy, and most of their food. All while the new government crushes the value of the yen to zero, in order to 'boost exports', which no one wants. Soon no suppliers will want yen for oil, gas or food. The Japanese have nothing else. Add in the massive increases in death rates – and those about to die who are too sick to work – and in another year and a half, it's all over.

You can see it now in the 50+% increases in energy and food costs on the ground. The Japanese can't afford it, and it's only getting much worse. Imagine Weimar hyperinflation in Germany between the wars, coupled with massive radioactive contamination killing everyone."

www.enenews.com

Fri, 01/25/2013 - 17:23 | 3186558 Squid Vicious
Squid Vicious's picture

Cramer said to stay out of stocks for five years in late 2008, so i guess now is a good time to start getting back in?

Fri, 01/25/2013 - 17:26 | 3186565 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

GEE what happened to the ENTIRE last years worth of every talking head saying 'It's all for the election, wildly manipulated markets and data all for ObaMao, but after Nov you'll see reality come crashing back in for sure!'

All the commentary and analysis adds up to jack shit thats all!

Fri, 01/25/2013 - 17:23 | 3186567 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

Muppets bitchez!

Fri, 01/25/2013 - 17:28 | 3186582 youngman
youngman's picture

Gold and Silver just walked all the way down today.....it was some sort of selloff....not a computer raid as usual....someone was exiting a position

Fri, 01/25/2013 - 17:29 | 3186585 kliguy38
kliguy38's picture

No whining if you insist on playing in their casino......buy physical and just watch them eat each other......we're entering the cannibal cycle now and its not going to get any better

Fri, 01/25/2013 - 17:31 | 3186588 Mr.Sono
Mr.Sono's picture

Time to sell gold/silver and buy stocks. Stocks going to the moon. Homer style bitches. Keep stacking

Fri, 01/25/2013 - 17:33 | 3186599 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

I just bought more silver. I just bought more platinum.

Fri, 01/25/2013 - 17:42 | 3186615 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

Why is there always a need to explain why gold is down based off of some weird pair trade being made or Paulsen?  Monday is OPEX for paper gold and silver.  They are down on temporary fraud.  Same old story.  Just BTFD and be glad physical is still around.

Fri, 01/25/2013 - 17:43 | 3186638 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 Good post" Quinvarius "....        I just goes to show how" in secret"   xau and xag are being hedged! Bundsbank/BUBA was smart to withdraw their miniscule tonnage.

  Am I wrong?

 

Fri, 01/25/2013 - 17:56 | 3186677 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

The fact that they are getting the gold back on a payment plan indicates they are already too late.  I wonder what math was used by the Fed to come up with this payout schedule and why?

Fri, 01/25/2013 - 19:30 | 3186883 Not Too Important
Not Too Important's picture

Well, the Swiss do want their gold back, too:

http://loveistheonlytruth.wordpress.com/2013/01/25/gold-bank-run-acceler...

There's already a long line. The Fed just won't cop to it yet.

Foreign central banks don't go through exchanges. They all want their gold, and they all want it NOW! And, apparently, we don't have it.

Fri, 01/25/2013 - 19:58 | 3186934 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 It's amazing that the peeps are so " mentally frozen". I have a photographic mind. You make good quotes occasionally.

 I'll reF. One< You stated that "Tax paying "citizens< should be able to declare their "significant other"!

  I'm not gay. I respect you, and your precept. You always assumed I was against you. (I wasn't)

   To each (their own)

     I like girls. You like both. It's ok

 

 

 

Fri, 01/25/2013 - 17:43 | 3186622 adr
adr's picture

If the stock market is supposed to be forward looking, this summer should be killer, happy days, money overflowing, people buying everything up in sight.

The problem is, manufacturing and buying for retail is forward looking as well. Virtually nothing was bought for spring and very little has shipped. What you see on the shelf in May was supposed to be bought in October and manufactured in January, before Chinese New Year. Back to school product is bought in Febraury and manufactured in April-May. Orders for product have dropped to the lowest level I have ever seen. All of the manufacturing reports show a massive slowdown. This is what will show up in the retail pipeline in a few months. But Amazon keeps going higher, sure they will be 3000% growth with no inventory to sell. Fucking primary dealers with no brains, Ben gives us money we buy stocks hadarrr.

How do you have stocks at all time highs with true business conditions being this low? Something has to give. I will tell you that the business fundamentals leading up to the last crash were far better than they are now. I sold then and I sell now, it has never been worse during my career.

Fri, 01/25/2013 - 17:59 | 3186689 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

People who actually own & run businesses are laughing right now at what even the most dense amongst them NOW realize is a complete & total sham.

This is worse than 2007, because so many more asset classes are so much more massively/artificially juiced.

Fri, 01/25/2013 - 19:03 | 3186826 reload
reload's picture

Dire conditions across every sector here in the UK ' but everything is going to be fine - a lady from the BOE was just on the telly saying that when Mr Carney arrives he will kick into touch the silly new bank capital requirements and print like crazy. We are fucked !

Fri, 01/25/2013 - 19:17 | 3186858 ekm
ekm's picture

Hi ADR

 

I've explained this a couple of times already but I'll do it again for you.

 

GS sells to MS who sells to JPM who sells to C who sells to BAC who sells them back to GS. Like this Dow may go to 30k easy peasy.

Primary Dealers did the same thing in the 1920s during the great depression, to no avail of course.

Primary Dealers did the same thing in the run up to 2007 and then dumped almost everything on bear stearns and lehman and send them to the graveyard.

 

Primary Dealers did the same thing in 2011 when they dumped all italian bonds MFG and send it to the graveyard.

 

However, it can't continue forever because it leads to acute shortages of available stocks for trading hence massive layoffs in the financial industry as well as extremely high crude oil prices as we are seeing right now.

 

What is going to happen? Exactly the same scenario. Load up the shit on one or two weakest primary dealers and send them to the graveyard. I'm thinking Deutsche Securities and Merryll Lynch are going to be toast soon.

It's done by executive order from the white house. Nobody else has the power to crap the market.

 

Sat, 01/26/2013 - 13:59 | 3187848 Just Ice
Just Ice's picture

Huh?  Merrill Lynch was taken over by BofA, or rather shoved off onto them, when it became insolvent before.   

Sat, 01/26/2013 - 18:23 | 3188197 ekm
ekm's picture

check the primary dealer list

Sun, 02/03/2013 - 07:34 | 3210645 Just Ice
Just Ice's picture

I don't need to check the primary dealer's list.  JPM, Goldman, Citi and BofA are the big 4 of the U.S. too big to fails.  Your prediction that Merrill is about to go bye-bye is tantamount to predicting Bank of America is going down.  Very long shot prediction imo, thus my "huh?"  At some point perhaps the too big to fails will no longer be backstopped.  I do not believe that is currently the case.

Fri, 01/25/2013 - 17:49 | 3186657 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 Truth/ I went flat late Wednesday. I missed out on a huge move. I did well earlier this month , and I'm keeping my [powder dry]

Fri, 01/25/2013 - 18:39 | 3186697 busted by the b...
busted by the bailout's picture

She's baaack -- Goldilocks!

Nice flourish at the end, and the close above 1500 will catch some retail investor's eyes over the weekend.

It's not too late to get in! 

or

It's getting harder and harder to make the case for collapse.

 

Fri, 01/25/2013 - 18:02 | 3186703 devo
devo's picture

I think gold got slammed because people believe the economy is fixed. "We don't need gold anymore stock market is fixed, so economy is fixed." The logic doesn't make much sense, though, because if the economy actually does improve, velocity (and thus inflation) will be rampant.This looks like herd mentality/dumb money at work.

 

Fri, 01/25/2013 - 18:11 | 3186728 surf0766
surf0766's picture

Are the sheep all in yet?

 

Fri, 01/25/2013 - 19:04 | 3186828 ekm
ekm's picture

All sheep have been slaughtered.

This is wolf against wolf.

Fri, 01/25/2013 - 19:17 | 3186859 DowTheorist
DowTheorist's picture

I don't know whether gold and silver were slammed because of AAPL collateral calls. However, gold and silver weakness was manifest technically since 12/20/2012 when the Dow theory flashed a primary bear market signal.

 

http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2012/12/dow-theory-update-for-dec-20-...

Furthermore, on Jan 23, the Dow Theory signaled a primary bear market for the gold and silver miners ETF.

http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2013/01/dow-theory-update-for-jan-24-...

Thus, it looks dubious to me that such weakness has been caused by AAPL collateral calls. Weakness, for reasons that escape me (manipulation, economy improving?) has been pervasive of late.

 

 

Fri, 01/25/2013 - 20:02 | 3186938 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 And so the Chineese can't dispose of me. They  try to gain Info,

 China is FUCKED.  China {rail, electricity} is FUCKED!

Fri, 01/25/2013 - 20:02 | 3186939 Obchelli
Obchelli's picture

I agree with all you say but question is WHEN will this implode. And yes they manage to create stability (strong illusion of) in extremely unstable environment.

Fri, 01/25/2013 - 20:08 | 3186952 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 I said that I was "Price action".  I lost 200 pips on the crosses. I'm not stupid.

Fri, 01/25/2013 - 20:15 | 3186960 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

   Based on the close. Borrowing rates are probably heated for the Sunday open

Fri, 01/25/2013 - 21:37 | 3187088 are we there yet
are we there yet's picture

It is too early to know for sure how Geithner will be remembered in history, but my take is that hw was an obedient soldier to an invisible banker darth vader.

Fri, 01/25/2013 - 21:51 | 3187111 are we there yet
are we there yet's picture

Wonder if the Geithner replacement is being groomed as a fall guy for when things go south.

Fri, 01/25/2013 - 22:17 | 3187154 Ned Zeppelin
Ned Zeppelin's picture

I have to say, I am no longer paying attention to the S&P, and can only assume that regardless of what number it says this will end badly.

Fri, 01/25/2013 - 23:51 | 3187290 BaggerDon
BaggerDon's picture

House of Mirrors,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,if anyone looks at March of 2009 and asks themselves why the market went up? Money printing or economy, why does the economy ever matter again....??

Fri, 01/25/2013 - 23:52 | 3187291 BaggerDon
BaggerDon's picture

House of Mirrors,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,if anyone looks at March of 2009 and asks themselves why the market went up? Money printing or economy, why does the economy ever matter again....??

Sat, 01/26/2013 - 09:12 | 3187520 Grand Supercycle
Grand Supercycle's picture

Wile E Coyote sell off awaits...

As mentioned – central bank intervention prolongs and postpones but can not oppose natural market forces indefinitely.

http://trader618.com

Sat, 01/26/2013 - 11:11 | 3187615 Lost Wages
Lost Wages's picture

If it's only 1994, that means we have five more years of bubble to ride! Oh yeah!

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!