Visualizing The Euphoria

Tyler Durden's picture

Drip...drip...drip... day by day, stocks leak higher, gradually inching up to record nominal highs; credit yields compress to record lows (and spreads near record pre-crisis tights); and volatility compresses (realized and implied) to near all-time-record lows. We have discussed the positioning of the market (S&P 500 futures at their net longest since 2007), crowded nature (JPY Shorts and NKY Longs), and sentiment (AAII Bulls near record highs). But, it is Credit Suisse indicator of risk appetite that should be worrisome for most investors. With Credit Risk Appetite well beyond any previous record high and Global Risk Appetite at its highest since 2006, perhaps it is time to consider the hedging discussion we had yesterday? With the euphoria dramatically dislocated from fundamentals and empirical world wealth trough-to-peak moves indicating a turning point, the lack of bearish arguments is deafening.

Record High Risk Appetite!!


Extreme large disconnect between 'euphoria' in markets and Global fundamentals (IP)...


and the last three global troughs in world wealth suggest we do not have much more upside to come...


Charts: Credit Suisse

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francis_sawyer's picture

joobux ~ it's a helluva drug...


Junks?... Rizzo is SELLING his game jersey & stick for as many of them as he can rake...

clara-to-market's picture

I remember that hockey team like it was yesterday.

I was just a kid.

Now my teeth are falling out.

francis_sawyer's picture

I don't think people fully grasp the 'SYMBOLIC' ramifications of Rizzo 'selling' his game jersey [from the 4-3 defeat of the Russians in the Olympics, where Rizzo was team captain & scored the winning goal]...


Any American who was alive & watched that game KNEW it as a turning point... The whole country was in the doldrums & everything seemed to pick up after that... I don't want to get MUSHY here about, what proved to be ARTIFICIAL prosperity [over the past 30 years since the game], but one can hardly argue that THAT hockey game was a seminal moment...

At ZH... Most people here have now "peeked behind the curtain" [& see the corrupt nature of the world & banking system]... Therefore, for most ZHers, it's easy to brush aside the false JINGO nature of the hockey game narrative... But that is not how MOST people see it... Most people are sheep & still are subject to the 'MUST BELIEVE' mentality that the Teleprompter gushed forth in his Inaugural Address...

['Do YOU believe in MIRACLES? ~ YES']... Were the famous words of sports announcer Al Michaels... That iconic phrase has stuck in many peoples minds & never left...

After the 1980 Olympics,[which were played during a time of the 'Hostage Crisis' & an overall 'Crisis of Confidence' (quoted by then President Jimmy Carter)]... AFTER ~ came the Reagan Years, a stock market rally, later crash ['87], but recovery again, housing bubble, & crash, S&L crisis, & rectification, the tearing down of the Berlin Wall, an internet bubble, stock market rally, crash, recovery, housing bubble [all leading to the events of 2008]...

The point is... ON THE SURFACE... It seemed to be a 'generation' full of events that NO MATTER WHAT THE ODDS, recovery would eventually come about... To many ~ the 'Miracle On Ice was the enduring ICON that embodied that thought process...

Now RIZZO is 'selling' his jersey from that game to fetch a few fiats... The 'CAPTAIN' of the ship is handing over his vessel to the Pirates... The honor of wearing that jersey was EARNED through sweat, self determination, & teamwork... It'll probably end up being sold to some banker who got rich DOING NOTHING because he works in a system that prints it's own money & uses it to loot & pillage...

Mull that one over... It's OVER [even 'symbolically'] my friends...

Motorhead's picture

Charts, bitchez!

max2205's picture

Abc news just said all 401 ks have recovered.... Lol what a joke

Yen Cross's picture

 One more year/ Every cycle gets compressed.

TotalCarp's picture

Hasnt it been "one more year" for the past 3? Getting a bit dull, no? In one more year they will simply put an unlimited bid under stocks as well as treasuries. Monetize everything!! Why not? - it has worked so well for them so far!

Squid Vicious's picture

"There is No Risk" the Shalom has thusly decreed circa Sept. 2012... all hail the Shalom

lolmao500's picture

Feinstein's full gun control bill :

Basically, almost all rifles, shotguns and pistols are banned... but no confiscation. But ban on import, manufacturing, transfer, buying/selling...

francis_sawyer's picture

The deer, bears, & wild hogs, turkeys, & geese will be elated to hear this news... What a cucking funt!

espirit's picture

Thanks for posting the link.  Had to read it for myself so that I will know what I'm going to be persecuted for.

Feinstein and Schumer, people you love to hate for the fascism they bring into peoples lives.

What's next?  Semiautomatic crossbows, spearguns, lawn darts?

gjp's picture

CRM announces stock split, after hours up by more than 3% after an already epic bubble run.  Dot com bubble redux, absolutely disgusting.  Congratulations Ben, this is how you build prosperity?

Euphoria in the face of obvious breakdown of basic political and economic institutions of the west is a sad thing to see.

Squid Vicious's picture

Great news I've really been wanting to buy some but was scared off by the sticker price... will call my broker monday a.m.

FishHockers's picture

It ain't no fun when the Rabbit got the gun.

Barbaric relic's picture

The deer, bears & wild hogs, turkeys & geese will be elated to hear this news . . .


The geese round my part of Canada totally wised up and no longer go across the border in winter -- too dangerous I guess or maybe Homeland Security don't let them cross without passport

francis_sawyer's picture

Well ~ as of now, they're all invited over to Feinsteins menagerie where they will be well cared for...

Barbaric relic's picture

Is that menagerie a menage with Hilary and a long necked Canada goose?

Michelle's picture

We shall never have another recession again! Benny's Great Moderation to infinity, and beyond!

LawsofPhysics's picture

Broken markets. Stocks say times are good, credit says there is a crisis. Someone is lying, place your bets. Nothing but a casio now. Get physical, live and sleep well.

BlueCheeseBandit's picture

How is having sex supposed to help at a time like this?

Yen Cross's picture

 There are a lot of good people on Zero Hedge. That Super Bowl party might happen. I'm costing it out.

  You will need valid passports. I'm still exploring the venue.

espirit's picture

Do we have to declare any uh, heavy metal?

Just asking.

OutLookingIn's picture


Got a cost of living increase on my pay.

According to our COLA formula, cost of living went up 1.8% last year. WTF?

I have NO idea where this wonderful place is, that the cost of living went up only that much!

Sure to hell isn't around here! Oh yah. Forgot to mention that I got an extra $4.38 on my pay.

Like the wife said, "Better than a kick in the arse!" But not by much. Now to pay tax on that...

Grand Supercycle's picture

Wile E Coyote sell off awaits...

As mentioned – central bank intervention prolongs and postpones but can not oppose natural market forces indefinitely.