The Stock Market Is Back To December 2007 Levels; Here Is What Isn't

Tyler Durden's picture




 

This past week, America's premier financial comedy channel, which lately specializes in such "epic financial journalism" as the real billionaire hedge husbands of New York (because sagging Nielsen ratings are always a direct corollary of central market planning) wasted no time in advising its few remaining viewers that the market, which soared past 1,500, has now regained levels last seen before the start of the recession in December 2007. Sadly, this is the only thing that has been regained. Below we present some things that have not been regained since the last time the S&P 500 was at 1500.

First, as the chart below shows, the S&P is indeed above 1500 for the first time since December 2007.

Unfortunately for the economy, which has ceased to correlate to the stock market courtesy of the Federal Reserve, the stock market and the underlying fundementals, in this case jobs, are now completely independent. The chart below shows that while the stock market may be at its pre-recession levels, the employment situation has only managed to recoup half the total lost jobs, and with 4 million jobs still to go before all the jobs lost are recovered, it is very likely that not even by the end of Obama's second term will the economy have regained all the lost jobs since December 2007.

The chart above assumes that the job picture is static. It isn't. Because while America was losing jobs, its population was growing - there is now a staggering 16 million difference between the number of jobs lost and the increase in the US population.

Naturally, the BLS has an explanation for the above chart. It wants the world to believe that while the US population was increasing by some 200K each month, this was offset by the surge of people not in the labor force - orange line below - which has increased by a record 9.6 million people in the past 5 years, or some 160K each month. The implication is that over the past 5 years, the US labor force - blue line below - increased by a tiny 1.6 million: a number designed with one thing in mind: to show a declining US unemployment rate. Because had the the Labor participation rate kept up with the US population, the US unemployment rate now would be about 11%: not quite as politically palatable as an unemployment rate below 8% for an incumbent president.

The punditry is well aware of the oddity above, so the explanation that the "consensus" has come up with is that during what we already showed is the worst recovery in US history, the baby boomers, whose savings and interest income is virtually nil, can't wait to retire and are doing so in droves.

Great. There is, however, one small problem with this explanation - it is only the Americans aged 55-69, or those who are supposed to be scrambling to retire, who have seen gains in the nubmer of jobs. As the gray line in the chart below shows, since December 2007 it is only the old age cohort of US workers that has seen a pick up in employment, as some 5 million jobs have gone to US workers aged 55 and older.

To all those other American workers aged 55 and young? Sorry: the number of jobs lost since December 2007 in the 16-54 age group cohort is a stunning 8 million!

So to summarize: since December 2007:

  • The stock market is now green
  • US population : +12 million
  • US workers who have left the labor force: +9.6 million
  • US civilan labor force: +1.6 million
  • Jobs for Americans aged 55 and above: +5 million

That's the good news. The bad:

  • Total jobs: -4 million
  • Jobs for workers aged 16-54: -8 million

So who is driving this amazing stock market, and only stock market recovery: it is obviously not the workers which are still below 2007 levels, nor is it the actual economy, which as we showed previously, has "recovered" at the worst pace in US history:

Who is it? Here is the answer:

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Sat, 01/26/2013 - 16:49 | 3188049 nope-1004
nope-1004's picture

He tooker jerb!

Impotent bankster running the show is the reason why this ain't working.  Printing does not create employment..... duh.

 

Sat, 01/26/2013 - 16:58 | 3188071 Pure Evil
Pure Evil's picture

So, exactly where are these 16 million new people coming from?

And, who will be paying their share under Obamacare?

Sun, 01/27/2013 - 09:56 | 3188949 CVfriendship
CVfriendship's picture

Paying is such a strong word....I would say printing for Obamacare.

Sun, 01/27/2013 - 12:41 | 3189103 Remington IV
Remington IV's picture

You'll be paying for Obamacare's moochers.... didn't you read the memo

Sat, 01/26/2013 - 17:11 | 3188093 westboundnup
westboundnup's picture

IT'S . . . IT'S A COOKBOOK!

Sat, 01/26/2013 - 17:17 | 3188102 RSBriggs
RSBriggs's picture

+1 for the "Serving Humanity" reference.

Sat, 01/26/2013 - 17:23 | 3188113 resurger
resurger's picture

It creates wealth for wallstreet and jobs for harvard & princton graduates.

add the PHD jewies to the list. 

Sat, 01/26/2013 - 21:39 | 3188516 mfoste1
mfoste1's picture

if this isnt clssic contrrin cll i dont know wht is

http://www.tmz.com/2013/01/26/vanilla-ice-real-estate-tips-video/

Sat, 01/26/2013 - 21:57 | 3188536 Midas
Midas's picture

Yo, word to your mother.

Sat, 01/26/2013 - 16:47 | 3188051 PhattyBuoy
PhattyBuoy's picture

fub

Sat, 01/26/2013 - 16:47 | 3188052 NeedleDickTheBu...
NeedleDickTheBugFucker's picture

CNBC would never let the facts get in the way of good story.

Sat, 01/26/2013 - 19:35 | 3188328 azzhatter
azzhatter's picture

Kudlow had that arrogant fucktwit Don Luskin on Friday night. Luskin practically pulled his dick out and rubbed one off to the new highs in the market

Sun, 01/27/2013 - 12:44 | 3189107 Remington IV
Remington IV's picture

did you cover your short yet ?

Sat, 01/26/2013 - 16:50 | 3188059 SmoothCoolSmoke
SmoothCoolSmoke's picture

MSM is certainly onboard with the 'improving economy' theme.  Friday night Brian Williams' lead story was the the improving economy.  The "proof"?

The housing pick-up and, THE STOCK MARKETS ARE NEAR ALL TIME HIGHS.

Bernankie must have popped a boner over that report.

 

Sat, 01/26/2013 - 17:05 | 3188081 knukles
knukles's picture

Mrs. K had that on and as I was listening hoping for some reality in the day's electronic mind control, Brian started on about that .... even saying that with stocks going so high it's prima facse evidence of a boomer.
Mrs K rolled her eyes and shook her head. 
So I sidled back into my hole and tuned back into The Hedge....

These people are criminal in their abrogation of responsibly presenting factual trustworthy information.

Sat, 01/26/2013 - 19:32 | 3188321 azzhatter
azzhatter's picture

All time highs- like = to 2000 levels. Meanwhile cost of living has gone up 40%

Sat, 01/26/2013 - 16:50 | 3188060 CheapBastard
CheapBastard's picture

Shanghai index never budged...still 60% off its highs.

Sat, 01/26/2013 - 19:33 | 3188322 azzhatter
azzhatter's picture

When I lived in China Shanghai was around 6,000

Sat, 01/26/2013 - 16:51 | 3188061 max2205
max2205's picture

I guess all those 50 yr olds 4 years ago are glad to get one of those 55 year old group jobs....at 50% less pay

 

Way to wait it out...

Sat, 01/26/2013 - 16:52 | 3188063 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 These boom bust cycles keep getting shorter and shorter and  shorter.  Keep filling the balloon, ponzi Central Banksters<>

Sat, 01/26/2013 - 16:58 | 3188073 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

 

 

CNBS pundits will be spanking their magic 8 ball for tea leave theories on price discovery.. Shake me, shake, shake, shake 

  • Signs point to yes.
  • Yes.
  • Reply hazy, try again.
  • Without a doubt.
  • My sources say no.
  • As I see it, yes.
  • You may rely on it.
  • Concentrate and ask again.
  • Outlook not so good.
  • It is decidedly so.
  • Better not tell you now.
  • Very doubtful.
  • Yes - definitely.
  • It is certain.
  • Cannot predict now.
  • Most likely.
  • Ask again later.
  • My reply is no.
  • Outlook good.
  • Don't count on it.
Sat, 01/26/2013 - 17:12 | 3188094 knukles
knukles's picture

And don't forget the stand by classics;

 

 

  • leggo jus leggo
  • eat my shorts
  • you gotta be fucking kidding me
  • says who?
  • say what?
  • say what again?
  • Hmmmm that is one mighty fine burger
  • No, I'm a long fucking way from just OK
  • whatever
  • can I go now?
  • I tought you were paying?
  • titless... she couldn't report her way out of a D cup
  • whaddya mean you don't take EBT's for liquor
  • dat rayzzizt
  • who's yo momma?
  • it's Rapunzel's fault, over there
Sat, 01/26/2013 - 17:01 | 3188075 jbvtme
jbvtme's picture

these pedophile reptiod corporates drew another mulligan.

Sat, 01/26/2013 - 17:00 | 3188077 dlfield
dlfield's picture

Clintonesque unemployment reporting...

Sat, 01/26/2013 - 17:05 | 3188082 cpzimmon
cpzimmon's picture

If you have ZH, why watch the MSM or television unless you're addicted to the pay per view adult sites.

Sat, 01/26/2013 - 17:07 | 3188086 jplotinus
jplotinus's picture

I have said the 1st post-industrial nation to guarantee a job for all citizens wins in this the 21st century. The UK is thought to be considering this. The USA is not.

Sat, 01/26/2013 - 17:14 | 3188097 knukles
knukles's picture

post-industrial.... so quaint

like licking stamps....

Sat, 01/26/2013 - 18:23 | 3188194 vintageyz
vintageyz's picture

Apparently the UK is also considering what it is like to hop into a triple dip depression.

Sat, 01/26/2013 - 17:08 | 3188090 Seasmoke
Seasmoke's picture

so drop another 8 million jobs and we should be over 2200

Sat, 01/26/2013 - 17:10 | 3188091 PAWNMAN
PAWNMAN's picture

Maybe, if they had a single objective voice other than Rick Santelli more people would tune in. Giving airtime to people like Jim Cramer and his ilk may of worked pre tech bubble. Not so much with a cynical public burned one too many times by the pump and dumpers they parade out day after day. I watch it stricly for amusement.

Sat, 01/26/2013 - 19:37 | 3188329 azzhatter
azzhatter's picture

I keep hoping to see Cramer have a stroke on live TV and put an end to this jizzbag

Sun, 01/27/2013 - 12:53 | 3189125 Tijuana Donkey Show
Tijuana Donkey Show's picture

Heart attack. You might not notice the stroke, but the big freeze would be killer to watch. "Based on this, I'm long Lipator, gasp, and short McDonalds." Imagine what his deathbed confession would be like.....

Sat, 01/26/2013 - 17:12 | 3188096 Michelle
Michelle's picture

Here's what's really happening: Junior is too lazy to look for work and Mommy and Daddy are more than willing to take on 2 or 3 jobs so Junior has unlimited free time to "do his own thing".

Sat, 01/26/2013 - 17:44 | 3188136 GoodMorningMr.V...
GoodMorningMr.VanRumpoy...'s picture

Now for some reality.

Volunteer at a homeless shelter or a foodbank sometime.

You would be shocked the percentage of "Juniors" doing there own thing lining up for soup and stale crackers or living in the streets.

https://www.nytimes.com/2012/12/19/us/since-recession-more-young-america...

Sat, 01/26/2013 - 17:45 | 3188138 kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

Not just Junior.  I see plenty of Baby Mommas who have no interest in work, but know every fucking welfare benefit this side of Beijing.

Sun, 01/27/2013 - 12:45 | 3189112 Remington IV
Remington IV's picture

you mean ...

 

47,000,000 food stamps
17,000,000 welfare
8,000,000 section 8 housing

Obama's moochers

Sat, 01/26/2013 - 17:15 | 3188099 StoleYourMoney
StoleYourMoney's picture

Bull markets coincide with strong economic growth & improving fundamentals. This market is more of a bullshit market that has neither. 

Sat, 01/26/2013 - 17:17 | 3188100 resurger
resurger's picture

Remission

Sat, 01/26/2013 - 17:18 | 3188103 falak pema
falak pema's picture

the illusion of riches in a sea of debt. Their only hope is to dilute the debt in controlled monetary fiat devaluation that will lead to uncontrolled hyper inflation and then deflation. 

What you sow...but in the meantime it'll grow, grow, grow the beanstalk. 

Their only true salvation is cheap energy, what has fueled this hubris for fifty years. That's the real economy, cheap oil.

But it doesn't belong to them and why should those guys get paid in this fiat bonanza of greenbacks and euro quacks? 

There is a limit to all surrogate situations to empires gone mad.

That is the time line of the past. 

Sat, 01/26/2013 - 17:19 | 3188106 socalbeach
socalbeach's picture

Re the Ackman vs Icahn confrontation, here is Ackman's presentation:

334 page pdf file

Haven't finished reading it, but so far it looks like Ackman is right, and he's doing potential victims a favor by publicizing it.

Sat, 01/26/2013 - 17:19 | 3188107 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

and if we are talking cycles, the economy subtracts every 6 years.
Every six years, there's some for of a crisis. sometimes small, sometimes big.

2007 + 6 = 2013

en todays year of our lord is = 2013

Sat, 01/26/2013 - 17:58 | 3188139 kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

Mein godt.  All that energy and SD can cypher as well:)

 

Where have all the titties gone:(   

Inquiring minds want to know.

Sat, 01/26/2013 - 21:50 | 3188531 donsluck
donsluck's picture

Your lord. I really don't understand that stuff.

Sat, 01/26/2013 - 17:52 | 3188108 LongSoupLine
LongSoupLine's picture

It's a fucking printing ponzi endorsed by the US fucking Congress and all regulators. Fuck all of them to Hell. Fuckers.

Sat, 01/26/2013 - 17:23 | 3188111 yogibear
yogibear's picture

Bubble Bernanke and the Fed are determined to fix everything by debasing the currency.

Already see that inflation has trickled through. 

Krugman claims inflation is tame yet his newspaper, the NY Times, raised their prices 132%. The US government stats claim only a 32% rise in prices in newspapers and magazine.

In many instances  the price remains the same and the package or quantity shrinks. Stealthy inflation.

We are already seeing notices from insurers where heath care is set to double in the next year in preparation for Obamacare.

This past year and a half commuter train fares has almost doubled. 

As people are dropping off of long-term unemployment insurance there will be many pissed off hungry people out there ready to riot unless Obama puts them on Social Security Disability Insurance or  welfare. 

 

 

 

Sat, 01/26/2013 - 17:31 | 3188122 socalbeach
socalbeach's picture

What dunces down-arrowed your post ?

Sat, 01/26/2013 - 21:51 | 3188532 mess nonster
mess nonster's picture

The dour, downcast deflationists, the ones who have no sesnse of humor.

Sun, 01/27/2013 - 12:57 | 3189130 Tijuana Donkey Show
Tijuana Donkey Show's picture

GOVT agents out to control the masses. 

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