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December Core Capital Goods Plunge 4.3% Y/Y As Durables Headline Boosted By Boeing Orders

Tyler Durden's picture





 

Yet another government data release, yet another epic case of baffle with BS. As expected (and as pretweeted by us) The headline Durable goods orders was a massive 4.6% increase M/M, rising to $230.7 billion from $220.7 billion, the biggest beat to expectations of a 2.0% headline print since December 2011. A key reason for this was the ridiculous 56.4% explosion in Nondefense aircraft and part from $5.1 billion to $7.9 billion, while Nondefense aircraft soared by 10.1% to $14 billion. Excluding this incredibly volatile data set, the headline number would have been a miss, and will likely be revised lower next month, because the primary driver of the boost was Boeing, which said it had received 183 orders in December, compared to 124 in November. One wonders how many of these fully cancelable orders were for the Dreamliner. Ah details.

And more details: the only consistent series that matters for a credible Capital Expenditure picture without monthly aberations, is the orders of Non-defense Capital Goods excluding Aircraft category, which rose by a whopping 0.2% month over month. But more importantly, looking at this on a Year over Year basis, as this is a seasonal series and looking at it on a sequential basis makes zero sense, we just experienced a whopping -4.3%, negating the transitory 1.5% Y/Y bounce posted in November, and resuming the downward glideslope in the key corporate CapEx indicator.

To summarize: corporate capital spending has yet to pick up.

Source: The always amusing Census Bureau

 


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Mon, 01/28/2013 - 10:01 | Link to Comment Stoploss
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Moar 787 smokeliners??

Mon, 01/28/2013 - 10:05 | Link to Comment Top_Kill
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Contrarian ALERT!!! Business week just wrote an article "Has the World Managed to Conquer Inflation". It's on like Donkey Kong. Bernacke Bucks are FUBAR http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2013-01-28/has-the-world-managed-to...

Mon, 01/28/2013 - 10:10 | Link to Comment Muppet of the U...
Muppet of the Universe's picture

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZxCxsMVFo8c&list=PL1766AE15B0D5E361

Not contrarian.  Just MSM.

LOL!!!

MSM says gold to 2000?  Gold to 1500.  MSM knows what it is doing.  & instructs nearly as well as Goldman.

Mon, 01/28/2013 - 10:10 | Link to Comment Top_Kill
Top_Kill's picture

"An additional factor in keeping inflation low may be explicit inflation targeting by reserve banks in the developing world, an approach that international institutions such as the IMF long advocated. (Ben Bernanke himself was also an early champion of the idea.) Nicola Baini and Douglas Laxton at the International Monetary Fund found 12 emerging economies that adopted inflation targeting between 1998 and 2002 alone. They suggested that such countries saw lower inflation and lower volatility in inflation over time, without a negative impact on growth or interest and exchange rate volatility. This may be one occasion in which the advice offered by Western technocrats has not only been followed—it’s actually worked." ....FOR NOW...

Mon, 01/28/2013 - 10:53 | Link to Comment Winston of Oceania
Winston of Oceania's picture

Familiar with the Time Valuue of Money Equation? Please explain how any working family can prosper or even stay above water with an annual inflation of 2 or 3%. It is in fact mathmatically impossible!

Mon, 01/28/2013 - 13:29 | Link to Comment Never One Roach
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How about the REAL inflation rate of 6-10% for essentials like food and energy?

Mon, 01/28/2013 - 10:29 | Link to Comment krispkritter
krispkritter's picture

They banned the passengers from smoking years ago. I guess if you want a 'non-smoking' flight now, you'll have to take an Airbus...

Mon, 01/28/2013 - 10:02 | Link to Comment GetZeeGold
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Durables Headline Boosted By Boeing Orders

 

No word yet on the effect of the 787 groundings.

Mon, 01/28/2013 - 10:04 | Link to Comment Sudden Debt
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Maybe they mean the replacement spare parts for the 787?

I've heard that Boeing Battery SALES ARE ON FIRE!!

Mon, 01/28/2013 - 10:13 | Link to Comment qqqqtrader
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Speaking of fires... tragic what happened in Brazil nightclub... now we need to ban nightclubs that hold more than 10 people I guess

Mon, 01/28/2013 - 10:16 | Link to Comment Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

the government is looking into it as we speak. They are looking for a replacement meeting place where you can pickup girls and spike their booze...

 

Mon, 01/28/2013 - 10:27 | Link to Comment krispkritter
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I thought that was the Intern lounge in Congress?

Mon, 01/28/2013 - 10:31 | Link to Comment Sudden Debt
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No, that's where hookers make their money.

Mon, 01/28/2013 - 10:38 | Link to Comment spanish inquisition
spanish inquisition's picture

Have they blamed rampant global warming yet?

Mon, 01/28/2013 - 10:44 | Link to Comment GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Old news....now it's fracking. Someone needs to inform John Kerry.

Mon, 01/28/2013 - 10:50 | Link to Comment Winston of Oceania
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Actually they are considering a ban on fire, it is VERY dangerous you know. In fact ALL fires are caused by none other than fire itself. WHY have we waited so long?

Mon, 01/28/2013 - 11:48 | Link to Comment trav777
trav777's picture

stop being mendacious...the fire was caused by YET AGAIN, band members lighting off some pyro stuff indoors.  THIS is what needs to be banned.

Mon, 01/28/2013 - 12:23 | Link to Comment Theosebes Goodfellow
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As part of CERT training I took recently they showed us a video of the Station fire. (http://youtu.be/Jae1fglq-9g). It's the same thing over and over. So what killed these people, (and those of the Station fire)? Lack of situational awareness. It'll get you every time.

Mon, 01/28/2013 - 10:03 | Link to Comment wisefool
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Why were the numbers released late?

Mon, 01/28/2013 - 10:03 | Link to Comment firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

To allow the 1% to place their bets accordingly.

Mon, 01/28/2013 - 10:21 | Link to Comment wisefool
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Reminds me of a bloomberg interview last week. (para) Some hedge fund potentate was talking about how he was going to dedicate the rest of his life to causes he believes in. The hostess asked him "But when you got started, why did you name your fund after a horse breed starting with A?"

He said "Back in my day, companies corresponded by fax, batched in alphabetical order. It didn't matter whether we got any business or not, we had 30 minutes of information to trade on before anyone else"

That statement took the my little pony vibe down a bunch.

Mon, 01/28/2013 - 10:31 | Link to Comment Sudden Debt
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because the guy who normally leaks them was canned last friday.

In memoriam for Timmy...

Mon, 01/28/2013 - 10:03 | Link to Comment firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

WTI spiking on that "news" out of Algeria, even though flow has not been disrupted.  Durable Good was an obvious goalseek to SPX rise.  Interesting seeing the 10Y bounce off 2%.  I would love to see 10Y hitting 3%, cause it would be laugable watching the US try to borrow at that rate. 

Mon, 01/28/2013 - 10:03 | Link to Comment Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

WE DON'T NEED DURABLE GOODS!!!

WE ONLY NEED THE 1$ PLASTIC TOYS THAT LAST 2 DAYS!!

Mon, 01/28/2013 - 10:13 | Link to Comment GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

That and guns and ammo......and magazines. Turns out the President is really into it.

 

Who knew the President and Ted Nugent spent the weekends at Camp David blowing the crap out of stuff?

Mon, 01/28/2013 - 10:13 | Link to Comment Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

I've read somewhere today that THAT BEAST likes to shoot pigeons AT CAMP DAVID!!

 

people who like to kill animals for fun tend to be most likely serial killers. Just saying...

Mon, 01/28/2013 - 10:16 | Link to Comment GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Peta can stand down......no live pigeons were killed during the orgy of violence.

Mon, 01/28/2013 - 10:45 | Link to Comment Winston of Oceania
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What did you do? Just look at the toy the first day?

Mon, 01/28/2013 - 10:04 | Link to Comment fonzannoon
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Santelli does not seem to be worried about details anymore. His pom poms were working really well.

Mon, 01/28/2013 - 10:04 | Link to Comment The worst trader
The worst trader's picture

Bullish! btfd. This market will never go down! (realy)

Mon, 01/28/2013 - 10:08 | Link to Comment TotalCarp
TotalCarp's picture

i would but there doesnt seem to be a fd to b!

Mon, 01/28/2013 - 10:06 | Link to Comment Yamaha
Yamaha's picture

Not true - the only reason they are up is due to my purchases of guns and ammunition.

Mon, 01/28/2013 - 10:11 | Link to Comment Sauk Leader
Sauk Leader's picture

That was my first thought. Considering indefinate backorder and 1 year lead times on just about everything. I wonder how much of an effect small arms and ordnance had on this report.

Mon, 01/28/2013 - 10:07 | Link to Comment LongSoupLine
LongSoupLine's picture

Yeah but the NYT said Americans are " in love with stocks again".

Fuck you MSM, fucking corporate cocksuckers. You especially Cramer, eat fucking shit asshole.

Mon, 01/28/2013 - 10:50 | Link to Comment ZeroAvatar
ZeroAvatar's picture

Over at Yahoo the choices are:

 

The Dow and S&P are heading toward all-time highs. Are you getting back in the game?

  • Yes, I'm putting more money in my 401k
  • Yes, I'm picking up stocks and bonds
  • I'm investing in mutual funds and ETFs
  • I'm still waiting to get back in

 

Nowhere is there an option:  Are you kidding me?  This rigged casino is a shit-show.  No way I'M throwing money at it.

 

(Each 'choice' is in reality a 'suggestion' that NOW'S THE TIME!  HURRY!  DON'T LOSE OUT!  BUY! BUY!  BUY!

Mon, 01/28/2013 - 10:09 | Link to Comment papaswamp
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Wow defense orders up 110% M/M? Wowza!

Mon, 01/28/2013 - 10:13 | Link to Comment Jayda1850
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Defense is just like every other dept in government, time to upgrade to the new model year. The reason we're bombing the shit out of the world is we just have too much inventory, gotta use it somewhere.

Mon, 01/28/2013 - 10:26 | Link to Comment yogibear
yogibear's picture

Getting ready for that middle east war. Gotta stock up.

Mon, 01/28/2013 - 10:09 | Link to Comment Cursive
Cursive's picture

Exploding batteries are a very expensive component of parts orders?

Mon, 01/28/2013 - 10:10 | Link to Comment SmoothCoolSmoke
SmoothCoolSmoke's picture

I'd BTFD.....except it never dips anymore.

Mon, 01/28/2013 - 10:10 | Link to Comment ZZR600
ZZR600's picture

I wonder if the drop and then bounce in gold 08:30 NY time was due to the headline figure being posted (improving economy therefore less chance of sustained QE) followed by in-depth analysis of numbers (economy actually not so good, more QE may be necessary)?

It does look like the markets are just being driven by news and ignoring long-term fundamentals..

Mon, 01/28/2013 - 10:25 | Link to Comment MFLTucson
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Grounded 787 must be good for buisness!  

Mon, 01/28/2013 - 10:26 | Link to Comment yogibear
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Dreamburners are hot. Really hot. Included under each seat now are fire suits and parachutes.

Mon, 01/28/2013 - 10:30 | Link to Comment ebworthen
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"...lies, damned lies, and statistics"

(Mark Twain, a.k.a. - Samuel Clemens)

Mon, 01/28/2013 - 10:40 | Link to Comment youngman
youngman's picture

I have to believe that a lot of this was channel stuffing and cliff investing...get the 2012 tax rates....

Mon, 01/28/2013 - 12:54 | Link to Comment SDRII
SDRII's picture

unfilled orders ex transport down for 7th month

Mon, 01/28/2013 - 13:48 | Link to Comment Never One Roach
Never One Roach's picture
B&N to CutUp to 33% Of Its RetailIn a Decade

Mr. Klipper's comments come amid growing questions about Barnes & Noble's future. This month the company reported an unexpectedly weak holiday selling season, with store revenue declining nearly 11% from a year earlier. Book sales at stores open at least a year, a key barometer in the industry, fell 3.1%.

 

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/b-n-cut-33-retail-052600909.html

 

B&N is history imo. With Barry's internet sales taxes kicking in and todays USPS whopping increase in postal rates, people will not be able to afford to have anything over 1 ounce mailed. Any company (mostly retail) that relies on mail order sales is going to take a massive hit this year.

Mon, 01/28/2013 - 13:55 | Link to Comment mightycluck
mightycluck's picture

Central gov't controlled economy at work!

Mon, 01/28/2013 - 16:44 | Link to Comment Venerability
Venerability's picture

Backward-looking Stats dependent on Boeing?

I have one word for that: Uh-Oh!

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