Guest Post: Soaring Debt Precedes Financial Crises...

Tyler Durden's picture

Submitted by John Aziz of Azizonomics blog,

Things don’t look so good for China:


Will we see a Chinese financial meltdown in 2013? Or 2014? Or 2015? With global GDP growth on a definite trend downward, with such a tepid Western recovery, and with global geopolitical tensions still high, the last thing the global economy needs is a financial crisis at the heart of the BRIC growth engine. But the data implies that that may just be what we get.

To those who believe that China is immune to such a thing, recall that America suffered the Great Depression immediately previous to becoming a global superpower. China’s economy has undergone a rapid transformation in recent years:


Such a transformation is sure to necessitate some dislocation and fallout — just as America’s transformation from an agricultural to a manufacturing economy did. America ended that process as the global superpower. It remains to be seen if the same will happen for China, but controlling the world’s largest productive industrial base certainly suggests so. The other factor, of course, that presaged America’s rise was a global war

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HomeBrewPrepper's picture

Nothing to see here , move on

q99x2's picture

Let's the US, EU, Russia and China have a war against the NWO. Take about 5 hours to end it seeing that they only have about 6,000 elite mommy's boys on their side. Don't have to shed any blood only ARREST them.

ebworthen's picture

Can't they grind the unwanted female babies into Soylent Green?

Can't they just sell more iPhones and invade Africa?  Hmmm...Chinese/African babies...will be an interesting mix.  Shaka Kahn?

TheFourthStooge-ing's picture


Can't they grind the unwanted female babies into Soylent Green?

Alas, alas, quintuple alas less two, Chinese citizenism efficiency make doings much better. Extracted female fetusings and female newborns which experiencing the dying accidental become into dried and powdered. This way making double lucky ingredients to elixir giving growth to tiny Chinese citizenism pee-pee with much joy.

eddiebe's picture

We're all insane. Funny comment on the chinese madness though.

King_Julian's picture

+1 Excellent channelling of AnAnonymous.

ebworthen's picture

Zulu Mao?


You Amelicans no unerstannd African man powdered penis is aphrodisiarac rike rhino hournn.

Especiarry for your bronde buxrom huneys from Carrifornia dat so easy to get once wre own you.

Hah!  Hah!

adr's picture

China's plan: Buy up all of California, ruin China, transplant the 100 million Chinese with money, let the other billionish die, head East from sunny Cali.

Go Tribe's picture

California will sell itself to China for sure. Any time you hear bad China news, BTFD.

guinea's picture

Pacific Northwest and British Columbia are so much more attractive to the Chinese. For one, there aren't barrios and brown people, and the population density is much lower for molding. Seattle metro area has one of the highest Asian populations in the US. Vancouver is already the Hong Kong of the West.

Snow falling on cedars, bitch.

legorf's picture

The problem is, will someone on earth survive the next big war? I mean, somehow, you need humans to run an economy ... or do ya?

Vendetta's picture

no.  Just a printing press and some algos

Dr. Sandi's picture

I suspect the algos have already figured out how to get rid of the 'useless eaters' which in this case means anything on two or four legs.

Shell Game's picture

"Will we see a Chinese financial meltdown in 2013? Or 2014? Or 2015?" (or 2016? or 2018?)


Yes.  Or, crumble.  

Acet's picture

I can predict with 100% accuracy that there will be a financial meltdown in China (or any other country of your choosing). There will also be one or more booms, one or more wars, a couple of revolutions and countless changes in borders, and quite likelly a change in nationhood.

All this will happen between now and the year 3000.




The secret to accurate forecasting is a long enough timeframe.


Shell Game's picture

lol!  Indeed, it's all in the timeline...   ;)

disabledvet's picture

I think a better argument would be to understand that America had no great "industrial recovery" after the end of our Great Patriotic War as the Russians called it. Instead you had an amazing concept of economics revolving around "mass consumption" and the sudden opening of the Halls of Knowledge to the general public...and an era of extraordinary public works...none of which would be possible now nor going forward due to America's Debt Bomb being exploded on the American people. I would argue the American people massively reigning in their alleged profligacy is something that will have a needed and profound impact on all these High Priests of "pricing power." We shall see if the Great Battle for Final Demand can be won by obliterating your one and only buyer...but I have my doubts.

Manthong's picture

How do you say "oy vey" in Mandarin?

Aurora Ex Machina's picture

Hmm, you do realise that the Korea / S.Asian crisis of 1998 was brought about directly by America / World Bank / IMF interactions, and they then screwed them over to make sure Western Corporations got their money, right?

And you do realise that this was the cause of the shift in policy (under Clinton) of the Chinese politburo that it would never happen again, and they'd tailor their economy to industrial output in order to grow, and directly satisfy USA demand, right?

And you do realise that Samsung [30%ish of S. Korean GDP] post 1998 vowed never again to be fucked by Western Corporations, right?


Top fucking tip: their societies do not function under the same rules that the USA does. After all, they've only had 30 years of prosperity, and China had the willpower to put through draconian single child policies for the "greater good". And the USA has kittens over a debt ceiling, and can't even manage to put people in "power" who aren't retarded at this point.



Jesus Wept. You're so screwed, and I'm supposed to help save this species? Trolololol; thanks peeps. Bring out the salt pillars, I guess...

Marge N Call's picture

"and can't even manage to put people in "power" who aren't retarded at this point."

I DARE someone to argue with that one.


sunny's picture

Argue?  I thought he was being generous to the point of pain.  There are many who are mentally challenged, it is the way they were born.  Entirely different to be "willfully" ignorant to the extent that the idiots in DC apparently are.

Then again, we must consider how they got there.  :-(


Marge N Call's picture

You bring up a great point Sunny. So you are implying they are intelligent but deceitful, i.e. wilfully ignorant. I suppose my vote for retarded demands more consideration. Maybe obtuse, at most mediocre, and sociopathic is more accurate. Sociopathic is more to the point of your observation of "how they got there". Then of course we must look in the mirror, for what does it say about a society where one must be sociopathic to become a "leader". A coward, liar, and most importantly, deviod of any character or principle.

oops, we are back to your point, how did they get there.


jeff montanye's picture

sociopathic liars and cowardly bullies pretending to be the manifestations of their bases hopes and dreams:

george bush professed christianity and mocked the pleas for life of a woman he put to death as governor.  killed scores of thousands (maybe hundreds of thousands) of innocents for an aggressive war of choice. 

obama promised transparency and has prosecuted more whistleblowers than all prior presidents while instructing the cia to assist sympathetic propaganda makers.  promised to close guantanamo in his first year.  to avoid "dumb wars".  in all fairness he didn't promise not to initiate a program of assassination of u.s. citizens by executive order but few really saw it coming.  

both reelected however.  i don't know about jesus but i'm starting to tear up.

Marge N Call's picture

jeff, both "leaders" had a cult group of followers who refuse to see the faults, crimes, of "their guy". Having voted for neither, I can honestly say we pretty much knew what we were getting from bushie. Did anyone think he WASN'T going to start war(s) when they pulled the lever for him? I doubt it. And to some extent the press and other groups kept him somehwat in check, or at least exposed.

Now obama OTOH, now there's real snake oil job. Could anyone who voted for him really think he would be WORSE than bush on civil rights, the Patriot Act, drones? As far as "he didn't promise not to initiate a program of assassination of u.s. citizens by executive order", I sincerely hope that was a joke. If presidents need to promise not to assassinate US citizens, then we are under a dictatorship already. Last time I checked, assassinating us citizens was a crime.

And that's what really bothers me about the so-called pacifists, civil libertarians, etc. As soon as "their guy" gets elected, they stick their fucking heads in the sand and pretend all is well. I have news for them: there will come a time, very soon, when "their guy" won't be in office, it will be another bush but worse, and the seeds of tyranny they have willingly and knowingly sown will be reaped.


MrTouchdown's picture

China has demonstrated a complete lack of ability to invent anything. They just copy and manufacture. The US was inventing all kinds of stuff before becoming a super power. I haven't seen one China-phile explain how China could possibly sustain itself without the EU or US leading the way - let alone thriving.

guinea's picture

They did invent paper money and printing press, and inflation.

China had GDP of Zimbabwe in 1950 and then had three intellectual purges since. I'm not so quick to write them off on the inventions front just yet. It always bothered me that utterly average people like yourself who have made zero contribution and invention to humanity feel like they know what that is about through vicarious association.

Totentänzerlied's picture

"They did invent paper money and printing press, and inflation."

They invented movable type. Not the press as Europeans would come to know it, per se. The other two things are not "contributions" to humanity is any way, shape, or form, they are weapons of mass deception and destruction.

MrTouchdown's picture

Alright, "invention" wasn't the right word. "Implementation" is. Another commenter brought up the ships thing. They invented triple masted ships WAY before the west, but then made it illegal to build or use them.

As to the rest, correlation is not causation and same to ya buddy.

Marge N Call's picture

They invented the clock, and the ship pretty much. I think they invented the hooker, but that's up for debate.

Dr. Sandi's picture

Hookers are constantly inventing themselves. Then re-inventing themselves to remain marketable.

MrPalladium's picture

In the past few years more patent applications have been filed in the U.S. patent office by Asians resident in Asia than from U.S. residents.

China has submarines that can sneak up on our carrier groups undetected.

After adjusting for wage rate differentials, China invests as much on R&D for defense and new defense equipment as the U.S. and spends almost nothing on maintaining obsolete equipment.

I don't know where my fellow Americans get the idea that the Chinese live in some sort of dark age.

mckee's picture

"I don't know where my fellow Americans get the idea that the Chinese live in some sort of dark age."


Its_the_economy_stupid's picture

They sneak up on US carrier groups with propeller technology sold to them illegally by GE or some such US corp. No perp walk on that one either.

Sons of  bitches.

MrTouchdown's picture

Indeed they did! In the case of the shps: they promptly outlawed them and it wasn't until westerners showed up using them (having invented them independantly much later) that they could be used.

It's a theme with them.

Freddie's picture

The US voted for OBa and he stole it in 2012 and probably 2008 too.   The chinese are not that stupid - actually they own him.

Rustysilver's picture

Things look a lot worst between 1958-1962 in China. An estimated 25-40+ million Chinese died of famine.

Now, you just have to learn how to breath polluted air and drink dirty water.  So you see, the communist system have a capacity to improve.

sbenard's picture

Two excellent books on the subject of debt calamities:

This Time Is Different -- Carmen Reinhart and Ken Rogoff

Endgame -- John Mauldin

I got both at the local library (I recommended them both).

Any others I should read? Thanks for the recommendation(s)!

stacking12321's picture

great historical account by adam fergusson

When Money Dies: The Nightmare of Deficit Spending, Devaluation, and Hyperinflation in Weimar Germany

Gold Dog's picture

How Long is a Chinaman's name

Dr. Sandi's picture

What kind of asshole still uses that epithet?

akak's picture

How is the word "Chinaman" any more insulting than the words "Englishman" or "Frenchman"?

Or are you one of those politically-correct idiots who uses the overly broad word "Asian" to refer strictly to Orientals?

Dr. Sandi's picture

No, I'm one of those assholes who has heard so many stupid assed 'Chinaman' jokes that you almost seem intelligent.

Take your 'politically correct' fuck you's to your day job and blow them up a sailor's dick.

And thank you for playing Fight Club.

akak's picture

Huh.  Myself, I can't recall EVER having heard any "Chinaman" jokes.

Now, if you want to discuss Chinese citizenism jokes ....

Ghordius's picture

LOL, please, no more Chinese Citizenism rhymes!!

actually a "Chinaman" was one of those big sailing ships made for the trade routes between China and Europe

as they started to land in California it became a name for both the ships and the people disimbarking, and was not particularly offensive, more one of those "beefy arrogant" attitudes nobody takes too seriously

at that time Californians kept their pet hate against Chileans anyway


that's actually a big issue I have with internet-based knowledge: it's very, very superficial

Marge N Call's picture

Dude, the Chinaman is not the issue here.

Gold Dog's picture

Obviously an asshole like douchebag.

EDIT- What the fuck ever happened to Peking anyway? Did it melt from all the panface pollution?

Dr. Sandi's picture

Apparently Beijing sounds more like the way the Chinese actually say the word than Peking, so people started trying to appear less ignorant by changing the way they say it.

Not that the fear of appearing ignorant is a big deal here at ZH.

This is not to explain why we still call Deutscheland 'Germany' in English. Some traditions die harder than others I guess.

PhilofOz's picture

Just to be annoyingly pedantic..... it's "Deutschland"