JPM's Tom Lee Announces His Dow Jones Industrial Average Price Target: 20,000

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Back in July 2008, just before all hell broke loose and the S&P was trading in the upper 1,200s, everyone's favorite permabull, JPM strategist famously reiterated his S&P 500 price target for the end of 2008: 1450. Two months later Lehman filed for bankruptcy, and 4 months later the S&P closed 2008 some 40% lower than said price target. Another two months later and anyone who had listened to Tom Lee lost 50% of their investment.

Today, as the Fed's balance sheet crosses $3 trillion, and the global central banks have pumped a total of some $15 trillion into the markets, Tom Lee ws back on CNBC with what is his most permabullish prediction ever: he now expects the S&P to generate some 150 in earnings to which he applies a 17x multiple. His conclusion "If you put a 17 multiple on $150, the S&P really sort of peaks around 2,400 or 2,500." In Dow terms, this means a Dow Jones Industrial Average of, drumroll, 20000. He does, caveat it, however: "that's obviously 4 years away." And if Tom Lee was off by 40% in 4 months, we can't help but wonder what the hit rate on his 4 year prediction will be, and if, by using the same ruler extrapolation mechanism he applies to corporate earnings nand multiples one extrapolates the Fed's balance sheet at some $7 trillion in 4 years, what a loaf of bread will cost just as the DJIA crosses 20,000. For future humor purposes, it may be useful to bookmark this post.

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Mon, 01/28/2013 - 15:13 | 3192180 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

BuRRish!... MeRRt up!

Mon, 01/28/2013 - 15:15 | 3192194 camaro68ss
camaro68ss's picture

Epic Muppet slaughter is upon us

Mon, 01/28/2013 - 15:15 | 3192200 Tippoo Sultan
Tippoo Sultan's picture

"Dow 20,000"

It appears Tom sees some asset inflation in the pipeline.

Mon, 01/28/2013 - 15:20 | 3192227 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

Meanwhile, Tom cannot walk down the streets of NY without being mobbed by tourists requesting that he show them his "Gangnam Style."

But at least the Pamela Anderson jokes have subsided for a while

Op...

Op...

Op...

 

Mon, 01/28/2013 - 15:56 | 3192347 Fukushima Sam
Fukushima Sam's picture

20,000 in 2017 dollars?  He might be on the low side...

http://mises.org/daily/2532

 

Mon, 01/28/2013 - 16:03 | 3192367 Stuck on Zero
Stuck on Zero's picture

Tom Lee will be right in 2017.  The DJIA will be 20,000.  Also, a first class stamp will be $29.50. 

 

Mon, 01/28/2013 - 16:15 | 3192408 bania
bania's picture

I've never seen a Tom Lee who didn't go long.

Mon, 01/28/2013 - 16:41 | 3192513 ACP
ACP's picture

Remember these from high school:

Abby Cohen : Goldman Sachs :: Tom Lee : JP Morgan

Mon, 01/28/2013 - 15:31 | 3192262 Panafrican Funk...
Panafrican Funktron Robot's picture

Meanwhile, a "fat finger" in silver.

http://www.finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=SI&p=h1

Still waiting for that inevitable, 1 minute spike to it's true dollar price.  

Mon, 01/28/2013 - 15:52 | 3192340 Uber Vandal
Uber Vandal's picture

Too bad he did not break out the old "Dow 36,000"

http://www.amazon.com/Dow-36-000-Strategy-Profiting/product-reviews/0609...

 

Mon, 01/28/2013 - 16:48 | 3192469 EscapingProgress
EscapingProgress's picture

So, in other words, the DOW will approach 0 in real terms, and then it will just end. Similar to Zimbabwe's stock exchange after the Zimbabwe dollar experienced 89.7 sextillion percent inflation.

"Trading was stopped from Nov. 21 after Zimbabwe’s central bank accused some traders of using fraudulent checks to buy shares. Eleven companies and nine individuals had their accounts frozen on Nov. 20 after the checks totaling “60 hexillion” Zimbabwe dollars had been used to buy shares, Zimbabwe’s central bank governor Gideon Gono said in a statment."

Source: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=azBA_vSF1Lg8

Keep the printers printing!

Mon, 01/28/2013 - 15:17 | 3192210 Agent P
Agent P's picture

Oh Tom Rree, I rrike you styrre...you so crazy!!

Mon, 01/28/2013 - 15:26 | 3192242 homersimpson
homersimpson's picture

Tom Rhee full of doo-dee since S and P will be at 333!

Mon, 01/28/2013 - 15:28 | 3192253 LongSoupLine
LongSoupLine's picture

I'd love to see someone knock his fucking teeth out live on CNBC. That would be fucking bullish for the middle class.

Fuck you Lee and your ball licking employer. Assholes.

Mon, 01/28/2013 - 16:34 | 3192454 akak
akak's picture

He can't help being a douche --- it's simply the eternal nature of his blobbing-up Chinese citizenism coming out in his offuscationalizing wording of mind and throating of ideas. 

Alas, alas, three times alas, his inability to self-indict is the mattering thing, the crustiest bit of very much something.

Mon, 01/28/2013 - 20:36 | 3193243 TheFourthStooge-ing
TheFourthStooge-ing's picture

The wordings he throats animated reflectation by JPM mob mind and is constantly looking for a scapegoat diligently. An action supported by a global media network with highness of vigour.

Under lifetimes of Chinese citizenism endocrination, that's what he mentioned having no bearings. It results from the unsinkable mettle of Chinese citizenism duplicity.

Somehow, boats are sinking all around the world. All boats are not equal when it comes to scuttling. Especially when the boat you sail is a Chinese citizenism pirate flag.

Mon, 01/28/2013 - 16:24 | 3192443 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

What if Tom is right and we emerge from this 10 year bear market with a nice double over the next 4 years of Obama's second term?  Everything doubles as the dollar is sliced in half.  It is an entirely realistic probability.  

Mon, 01/28/2013 - 17:58 | 3192743 Larry Dallas
Larry Dallas's picture

Wow. I thought Abby Joseph Cohen was bad. This takes the cake!

Mon, 01/28/2013 - 15:12 | 3192183 thepigman
thepigman's picture

Tom is now  the biggest fucking shill on the planet. Or is Biriniyi up there with him?

Mon, 01/28/2013 - 15:26 | 3192247 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

He's got a ways to go to catch up to Dick Bove, but he's showing real promise.

Mon, 01/28/2013 - 16:04 | 3192370 eclectic syncretist
eclectic syncretist's picture

This call is for his client account, not his personal account.  He just forgot to make the differentiation public.  He wants to sell you the shit JPM is shoveling out the door after all.

Sounds a lot like abby cohen (in 2007) calling for the S&P500 to hit 1675 in 2008.

Mon, 01/28/2013 - 15:13 | 3192184 zorba THE GREEK
zorba THE GREEK's picture

So Tom Lee thinks there will be hyper-inflation also.

Mon, 01/28/2013 - 15:21 | 3192224 Manthong
Manthong's picture

That's probably the last thing on his mind, but it might be what happens if the Fed's exquisite formulations suffer an unforseen perturbance.

Mon, 01/28/2013 - 15:15 | 3192185 Divided States ...
Divided States of America's picture

Thats good to know, that means Hyperinflation will be coming to a town near you... which means I can finally make good use of my guns and ammos that i have been stockpiling.

Mon, 01/28/2013 - 15:17 | 3192206 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

You have guns and ammo? You must be a terrorist.....Tell me do you believe the constitution is still valid today? You do? Off to Guantanamo with you.

Mon, 01/28/2013 - 15:27 | 3192216 Divided States ...
Divided States of America's picture

I think I just saw a FBI and CIA van just pull up on my drive-up...oooops.

Mon, 01/28/2013 - 16:50 | 3192545 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

start shootin!

Mon, 01/28/2013 - 18:44 | 3192896 ZeroAvatar
ZeroAvatar's picture

It says 'Flowers By Ilene' on the side.  It's parked next to the one that says 'Clyde's Insurance Agency'.

Mon, 01/28/2013 - 15:14 | 3192186 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

He must be sleeping with his little bitch James Dow 20,000 Altucher.

Mon, 01/28/2013 - 15:19 | 3192214 Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture

Maybe a threesome with Abby Joesph Cohen?

Mon, 01/28/2013 - 15:20 | 3192226 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

Drinkin the Koo-RAID...

Mon, 01/28/2013 - 15:23 | 3192238 Agent P
Agent P's picture

Thank you for the image...now if you'll excuse me, I have to go Google how to clean vomit out of a keyboard.

Mon, 01/28/2013 - 15:25 | 3192243 Bam_Man
Bam_Man's picture

Throw in Mary Jo White and make it a "fearsome foursome".

Mon, 01/28/2013 - 15:32 | 3192265 Groundhog Day
Groundhog Day's picture

don't forget elaine "wait til they get a load of me" gazzerelli

Mon, 01/28/2013 - 16:01 | 3192358 AlaricBalth
AlaricBalth's picture

I think Warren and Becky would like to jump in on some of that action.
:-p

Mon, 01/28/2013 - 16:08 | 3192381 Bam_Man
Bam_Man's picture

Unfortunately, Elaine is unavailable because she is busy getting her 39th facelift.

Mon, 01/28/2013 - 15:13 | 3192187 Zer0head
Zer0head's picture

seems low unless the printing press seizes up

Mon, 01/28/2013 - 15:14 | 3192191 RSBriggs
RSBriggs's picture

Not that this information is worth anything, but my long term indicators show  hitting 18,000 on the Dow just before everything all falls apart.  If it hits 17,000 you'd better seriously start getting ready for the "big one" cause it isn't far behind...  

Mon, 01/28/2013 - 15:20 | 3192222 DavidC
DavidC's picture

I'd really like to know how you get that.

All I can see, looking at the Dow going back to 1900, is a massive triple top (whether log or linear).

I will concede that no one imagined the Central Banks would do what they've done (out of sheer panic and desperation) since 2009, but unless they all band together (PBoC? I don't think so) I really cannot see how it's going to get that high before blowing up, or should I say imploding.

DavidC

Mon, 01/28/2013 - 15:15 | 3192196 The Alarmist
The Alarmist's picture

Did he happen to mention his target for the USDX is something like 0.60?

Mon, 01/28/2013 - 15:25 | 3192241 Unprepared
Unprepared's picture

Nope, but implicitly USD = 1oz/4000,  if you know what I mean.

Mon, 01/28/2013 - 15:16 | 3192202 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Just in case anyone was unsure about dollar destruction. Did he say anything about taking delivery of PM's or what energy prices might look like?  DOW 20,000 k, COMEX default.  Okay, I'll get right on that.  Fucking shill.

Mon, 01/28/2013 - 15:16 | 3192205 cpzimmon
cpzimmon's picture

He wants to pack the market...like he's done to his piles.

Mon, 01/28/2013 - 15:17 | 3192207 Unprepared
Unprepared's picture

Yep, the 3rd time would be the charm, we just need to find outselves another 1980's and 90's.

Mon, 01/28/2013 - 15:20 | 3192221 thepigman
thepigman's picture

We can do it on 1% growth this time:-)  Why the hell not?:-) Bernank's got ur back.

Mon, 01/28/2013 - 15:18 | 3192211 lemarche
lemarche's picture

POOR SUCKER !!! WILL HE CUT HIS HAND WHEN HE S PROVED WRONG, FOR ALL THE LOSSES THE TRUSTING CLIENTS WILL FACE???... LOL...

Mon, 01/28/2013 - 15:20 | 3192218 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

 

 

He looks a lot different than in those videos with Pamela...

(oh....)

Mon, 01/28/2013 - 15:23 | 3192235 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

As I was saying, at least the Pamela Anderson jokes have subsided...

Mon, 01/28/2013 - 15:47 | 3192321 mayhem_korner
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My bad.  The whole Uncle Warren - Bequicky thing this morning has my brain in a polluted place...

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 01:18 | 3194037 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

There are websites that can help with that...  :>D

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!