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JPM's Tom Lee Announces His Dow Jones Industrial Average Price Target: 20,000
Back in July 2008, just before all hell broke loose and the S&P was trading in the upper 1,200s, everyone's favorite permabull, JPM strategist famously reiterated his S&P 500 price target for the end of 2008: 1450. Two months later Lehman filed for bankruptcy, and 4 months later the S&P closed 2008 some 40% lower than said price target. Another two months later and anyone who had listened to Tom Lee lost 50% of their investment.
Today, as the Fed's balance sheet crosses $3 trillion, and the global central banks have pumped a total of some $15 trillion into the markets, Tom Lee ws back on CNBC with what is his most permabullish prediction ever: he now expects the S&P to generate some 150 in earnings to which he applies a 17x multiple. His conclusion "If you put a 17 multiple on $150, the S&P really sort of peaks around 2,400 or 2,500." In Dow terms, this means a Dow Jones Industrial Average of, drumroll, 20000. He does, caveat it, however: "that's obviously 4 years away." And if Tom Lee was off by 40% in 4 months, we can't help but wonder what the hit rate on his 4 year prediction will be, and if, by using the same ruler extrapolation mechanism he applies to corporate earnings nand multiples one extrapolates the Fed's balance sheet at some $7 trillion in 4 years, what a loaf of bread will cost just as the DJIA crosses 20,000. For future humor purposes, it may be useful to bookmark this post.
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BuRRish!... MeRRt up!
Epic Muppet slaughter is upon us
"Dow 20,000"
It appears Tom sees some asset inflation in the pipeline.
Meanwhile, Tom cannot walk down the streets of NY without being mobbed by tourists requesting that he show them his "Gangnam Style."
But at least the Pamela Anderson jokes have subsided for a while
Op...
Op...
Op...
20,000 in 2017 dollars? He might be on the low side...
http://mises.org/daily/2532
Tom Lee will be right in 2017. The DJIA will be 20,000. Also, a first class stamp will be $29.50.
I've never seen a Tom Lee who didn't go long.
Remember these from high school:
Abby Cohen : Goldman Sachs :: Tom Lee : JP Morgan
Meanwhile, a "fat finger" in silver.
http://www.finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=SI&p=h1
Still waiting for that inevitable, 1 minute spike to it's true dollar price.
Too bad he did not break out the old "Dow 36,000"
http://www.amazon.com/Dow-36-000-Strategy-Profiting/product-reviews/0609...
So, in other words, the DOW will approach 0 in real terms, and then it will just end. Similar to Zimbabwe's stock exchange after the Zimbabwe dollar experienced 89.7 sextillion percent inflation.
"Trading was stopped from Nov. 21 after Zimbabwe’s central bank accused some traders of using fraudulent checks to buy shares. Eleven companies and nine individuals had their accounts frozen on Nov. 20 after the checks totaling “60 hexillion” Zimbabwe dollars had been used to buy shares, Zimbabwe’s central bank governor Gideon Gono said in a statment."
Source: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=azBA_vSF1Lg8
Keep the printers printing!
Oh Tom Rree, I rrike you styrre...you so crazy!!
Tom Rhee full of doo-dee since S and P will be at 333!
I'd love to see someone knock his fucking teeth out live on CNBC. That would be fucking bullish for the middle class.
Fuck you Lee and your ball licking employer. Assholes.
He can't help being a douche --- it's simply the eternal nature of his blobbing-up Chinese citizenism coming out in his offuscationalizing wording of mind and throating of ideas.
Alas, alas, three times alas, his inability to self-indict is the mattering thing, the crustiest bit of very much something.
The wordings he throats animated reflectation by JPM mob mind and is constantly looking for a scapegoat diligently. An action supported by a global media network with highness of vigour.
Under lifetimes of Chinese citizenism endocrination, that's what he mentioned having no bearings. It results from the unsinkable mettle of Chinese citizenism duplicity.
Somehow, boats are sinking all around the world. All boats are not equal when it comes to scuttling. Especially when the boat you sail is a Chinese citizenism pirate flag.
What if Tom is right and we emerge from this 10 year bear market with a nice double over the next 4 years of Obama's second term? Everything doubles as the dollar is sliced in half. It is an entirely realistic probability.
Wow. I thought Abby Joseph Cohen was bad. This takes the cake!
Tom is now the biggest fucking shill on the planet. Or is Biriniyi up there with him?
He's got a ways to go to catch up to Dick Bove, but he's showing real promise.
This call is for his client account, not his personal account. He just forgot to make the differentiation public. He wants to sell you the shit JPM is shoveling out the door after all.
Sounds a lot like abby cohen (in 2007) calling for the S&P500 to hit 1675 in 2008.
So Tom Lee thinks there will be hyper-inflation also.
That's probably the last thing on his mind, but it might be what happens if the Fed's exquisite formulations suffer an unforseen perturbance.
Thats good to know, that means Hyperinflation will be coming to a town near you... which means I can finally make good use of my guns and ammos that i have been stockpiling.
You have guns and ammo? You must be a terrorist.....Tell me do you believe the constitution is still valid today? You do? Off to Guantanamo with you.
I think I just saw a FBI and CIA van just pull up on my drive-up...oooops.
start shootin!
It says 'Flowers By Ilene' on the side. It's parked next to the one that says 'Clyde's Insurance Agency'.
He must be sleeping with his little bitch James Dow 20,000 Altucher.
Maybe a threesome with Abby Joesph Cohen?
Drinkin the Koo-RAID...
Thank you for the image...now if you'll excuse me, I have to go Google how to clean vomit out of a keyboard.
Throw in Mary Jo White and make it a "fearsome foursome".
don't forget elaine "wait til they get a load of me" gazzerelli
I think Warren and Becky would like to jump in on some of that action.
:-p
Unfortunately, Elaine is unavailable because she is busy getting her 39th facelift.
seems low unless the printing press seizes up
Not that this information is worth anything, but my long term indicators show hitting 18,000 on the Dow just before everything all falls apart. If it hits 17,000 you'd better seriously start getting ready for the "big one" cause it isn't far behind...
I'd really like to know how you get that.
All I can see, looking at the Dow going back to 1900, is a massive triple top (whether log or linear).
I will concede that no one imagined the Central Banks would do what they've done (out of sheer panic and desperation) since 2009, but unless they all band together (PBoC? I don't think so) I really cannot see how it's going to get that high before blowing up, or should I say imploding.
DavidC
Did he happen to mention his target for the USDX is something like 0.60?
Nope, but implicitly USD = 1oz/4000, if you know what I mean.
Just in case anyone was unsure about dollar destruction. Did he say anything about taking delivery of PM's or what energy prices might look like? DOW 20,000 k, COMEX default. Okay, I'll get right on that. Fucking shill.
He wants to pack the market...like he's done to his piles.
Yep, the 3rd time would be the charm, we just need to find outselves another 1980's and 90's.
We can do it on 1% growth this time:-) Why the hell not?:-) Bernank's got ur back.
POOR SUCKER !!! WILL HE CUT HIS HAND WHEN HE S PROVED WRONG, FOR ALL THE LOSSES THE TRUSTING CLIENTS WILL FACE???... LOL...
He looks a lot different than in those videos with Pamela...
(oh....)
As I was saying, at least the Pamela Anderson jokes have subsided...
My bad. The whole Uncle Warren - Bequicky thing this morning has my brain in a polluted place...
There are websites that can help with that... :>D
I really hate these guys. That's a strong statement but CNBC is desperate for ratings because there is really nothing else going on right now. So they trot out these assclowns. They should just stop the bullshit and have cage matches, paternity tests, and Mandy Drury's tits on full display to make it Jerry Springer. I had to get that off of my chest, I feel better...
The other (ZING!) that really (WHOOSH!) annoys me (FWANG!) is the (FARP!) continual sound (WHEE!) effects.
DavidC
Are there any 36,000 hats still available?
Yes, Contact Susquehanna hat company
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=THZV5g1CNZM
other prophet is preaching DJIA at aprox 3-4k.
It's quite possible we will get both ... bring it on!
Let's see...the Dow at 20,000 , gold at 35,000 silver at 2,300...I'll take it.
Dow at 15,200 and Au at 12K.
Just sayin.
In another 4 years, we'll be lucky if we can afford the bullets to survive a grocery run.
Not a lot different than when you see a Goldman call. Often the best thing to do is the opposite of what they say. There is a real good chance that JPM is ready to book its profits, and possibly flip to the short side.
What's the equation to turn Dow 20k into platinum coins? Krugman, care to chime in?
Put a 17x multiple on AAPL and its a $750 stock TODAY.
Except it's not.
I think Bernanke is taunting us with what his plans are .... and he'll probably pull it off .... they know the sheep better than we ?
Hmmm...how do we get the sheeple to pour money into the market so we can steal said money before we collapse said market?
- Pick me, pick me!
Yes, you in the $4,000 suit with your hand up.
- Just tell them they'll make a ton of money. Who would question a banker? It worked last time.
Brilliant. You're Federal Reserve material.
- Thank you, Uncle Benny
SAT question:
Neocon Iraq tragedy/fiasco is to John Yoo
as
Global fiat ponzi is to (fill in the blank)
Answer: Tom Lee
Now if he made that claim while dancing Gangnam style, I might have taken him seriosry.
Man people are dumb:
- Banksters and Pravda Speak, Sheeple listen (I guess it worked well for E.F. Hutton right?)
if the fed continues to pump money like they are, whats stopping that from happening?
i dont think it will happen, nor do i want it to, because im hoping for a major market crash so all these thieves pay the price for there criminal acts, but right now it seems that the market will not stay in the red no matter how poor data we get/ earnings.
its really sickening how the stock market is not a real market anymore, but rather a giant casino. its a shame.
NOTHING!
I mean we are here now, right?- O-Blame-A and his den of thieves are firmly entrenched.
dow 20K- here we come (by mid-term election?) think Seinfeld and Bizzaro World - we are all in it now.
I thought it was too early in the week for humor?
Topeka Capital @ 22,222?
Two hos walk into a bank...
And with that being said, Puts Puts Puts.
Why not DOW 20k?
We are at S&P 1500 with no end in sight of ZIRP and endless monthly asset purchases.
We are essentially double dog daring the economy to ignite massive inflation.
Before inflation itself begins causing economic damages, stocks will go along for the inflationary boom along with commodities. Things will appear great for a short period of relative time.
Commodities will eventually cause the economic pain to stocks in the end as the world of Fiat currency crumbles.
ZH should ask Tommie Lee-- You know the drummer that was PamelalAndersens 'ex-squeeze for a more realistic and scientific forecast!
oh if the guy from JPM says it's going to 20.000 then i should buy righto !!!! how lucky am i to have seen him on MSM, i'm gona make so much money with such privileged information !
yeah sure :-)
Is it just me or is it interesting that the man said the S&P 500 would be at 1,450 by the end of 2012 and it ended at 1,426.19, or just 1.6% shy of where he forecasted?
To me, that's a good job on his part. And you whine because the market fell out in between...
There was a typo. It should have said by the end of 2008.
If he predicted 1,450 for the end of 2012, he only missed it by a few days. The S&P closed at 1,462 on 1/02/13.
Maybe in a few months people will be laughing at his DOW 20,000 4 years from now, but that does not preclude the DOW being at 20,000 4 years from now. In early 2009, how many would have laughed at the idea that the DOW would be a hundred points from 14,000 in less than 4 years later?
You cannot outspend the machine(s) -
it's like going to vegas - only now, it is essentially 100% rigged.
You accept that fact that Vegas ultimately wins when you are on a road trip or at a bachelor party - however in a free Market, we all thought there was a spot for us at the table - the Lords have decreed it to all the Serfs - "No Soup for You!"
I believe the prediction was 1,450 for the end of 2008.
Thomas Lee, the chief equity strategist at JP Morgan Chase & Co., has gone on record twice in the past couple of months, saying that he believes that the S&P 500 will trade "much higher" by the end of 2008. How high? Lee is sticking to a target of 1,450 for the S&P 500, which would be about a 13% gain from today's levels.
One of the Tylers really needs an editor when s/he's had a few.
As I read this article, I had to laugh ... the guy was right, but there was a little (sic) dip along the way. He may be right about 2,400 or 2,500 in 4 more years as well, but here's hoping there's another little dip along the way so my puts on AMZN and CRM pay off. I think we all know what Ben's response to another little dip would be, so that would be the time to load up on precious metals and miners. Here's hoping anyway.
wait, just got it, this is an auction !
30.000 here !
historical "average" P/E multiple x peak EPS = FAIL.
I cannot decide what's worse - Tom Lee gets paid for creating this crap or that investors actually pay attention to it.
Please let him know that Jamie is no longer in the running for Treasury Secretary so there is no need for attempting to curry favor with the folks in Washington.
OH you so craaazy Tom Ree!
The guys a trader(christ,givem a break).He might be the type that's wrong 40% of the time and right 60%,yet still makes a comfortable living for himself. Just another traders opinion after gazing at his crystal-ball.Compare this guy to the weatherman on television who can be wrong half the time yet still keep his job on the tely.Maybe its good BC Big Bud?Who knows?(The Shadow knows but he's not talkin').How do half of these guys stare into the future?On the other hand,maybe he's taking a long shot that Central Banks around the world will have to allow a little inflation to get out of hand(actually a lot more than a little),so their debts stop looking so bad.Besides,seniors are the ones that vote and every corrupt yet smart politician knows that you have to keep paying them.All the bankers in the world preach the theory that it's easier for their gang to control inflation with higher interest rates than to control deflationary pressures.So, that translates into this trader having or considering a lot of far out options positions.The probability of being successful at those types of trades is very slim and high risk.But then again,he might be right and could be early into the inflationary trade.He might feel that we're coming into a bottom soon before it starts up.So don't count him out this time.The unfolding of untold trillions of cheap,crappy paper money onto the market by Central Banks has eventually got to cause inflation on a massive scale.It's just timing it and he might have clients taking on cheap far out options right now and/or legging into that trade theory.If he's right this time he'll make a ton of cheap paper and then convert it into gold.More QE still ahead?
This moron just unwittingly cemented a 14K top.
20K would be a nice place to sell. A mere 50% gain in four years. SWEET!
and the final hour pump by the fed has begun. where will it close today? what a fucking joke. its the same process daily
Why do the MSM give a tribune to these quacks ?
Why do people bother to watch this utter drivel ?
Why do I bother writing this post ?
Why do I ..... Well nevermind the MSM won
His contract must read that he stays employed until he makes a correct call.
How do I get a job like that?
Jeez Tom, it needs to breach the 19,755 resistance level first - duh.
/rolls eyes
/drinks heavily
Fuckin Clown!
I would not bet on this guy to predict what he had for dinner last night.
It appears Abby Joseph Cohens face lift went wong.
It seems to me like the propaganda campaign is on to off-load equity shares in the hands of the 99% as the 0.1% is looking to go cash.
Collapsing Upwards.......Sure 20,000
Last week was a bleak one at Thomson Reuters, the financial news and wire service giant. According to sources, as many as 3,000 people were let go, out of approximately 50,000 employees around the globe. Most of the layoffs came from the financial sector—the sales, training and analysts’ divisions—but some were on the editorial side.
http://observer.com/2013/01/through-the-wire-reuters-layoffs/
As long as we are fixated on the Dow and the S&P 500 instead of people out of work and people working for slave wages, no real progress at attacking the root cause fo the malaise will be made.
You cannot improve the markets by tampering with the S&P 500 anymore than you can change the weather by tampering with the thermometer.
dont be naive Peter, the modern economies dont need employees or consumers, just moar liquidity with which to financialize future 'earnings' from financialization practices
So, he predicted that the S&P would be 1450 at the end of 2012? Wow. Three weeks into 2013, it is 1500.
Yep, he made the winning jumpshot....after the buzzer.
I can totally see the DOW going to 20K.......as the country riots and burns.....would make total sense.
Tom Lee took a ruler and lined up the bottom of November 2012 with today and extrapolated up.
And for this skill, this fucker gets paid millions.
And Ben and Barry keep buying up stock with taxpayer dollars.
Is he copying me?
I will stick to my DOW 24,000 call for 2016/2017 time.
last buy: COW
All right.....Lever up and full risk on !
/SARC
You don't get it .... Bernanke picks a clown to predict 20K DOW .... then fulfills his prophesy .... to undermine the confidence of the rational crowd .... see what happens when you don't play ball .... with the fed .... be a good Pavlovian mutt .... and salivate .... when the NYSE bell gongs .... or you get swatted on the snout .... with a rolled up WSJ !
I buy the government silver rounds .... they're subsidized heavily .... the quality is excellent .... fabricated silver for 10% over spot .... ever checked out the mark up on Sugar Smacks .... 1000% .... I rest .... the rest of my case !
Buying hand over fist right now.. I can't lose, god bless america
Realistically, we'll be lucky if the DOW is BACK to 6000 (after the crash) by 2017.
I think he is on the low side. Calling for 39,000 at the rate the Fed is pumping the PD's.
20,000... what? platnum coins?
Dow 20,000 there's a chance, question is what's Dow 20,000 worth in 1969 dollars?
Dow in 69 was 20 oz gold Dow today 8.5 oz gold, Dow 20,000 will be 2 oz gold, it's time to load up on gold.
He could be right. The rotation from sovereigns into private assets has begun.
Once rates tick up this year, it will gather pace.
Err... is it just me or was he basically spot on with his previous prediction ?
Wow! I was not expecting the bond market to finally follow the real economy, and go over the cliff until late 2015. Thank you Mr. Lee, now I know . . .
. . . it will happen much sooner!!