Santelli And Biderman Slam The Market's Four Faltering Fallacies

Tyler Durden's picture

There are numerous myths flying around the screens we all remain glued to - from inflows suddenly becoming correlated with equity market performance to a 'real recovery' in housing. TrimTabs CEO Charles Biderman paid a brief but fact-full visit to CNBC's Rick Santelli and the two somewhat skeptical gentlemen expounded on four of the critical fallacies supporting hope in our markets currently. First, the last time inflows were this big we saw dramatic reversals in stocks; and coincidentally, secondly, we also saw companies buying back less stock (in fact we saw float rising at those periods) and sure enough that is what Biderman notes is happening in January too. Third, current 'economic' euphoria appears due to the drag forward of incomes into Q4 2012 due to tax concerns (which is being spent/saved now) - however that means Q1 2013 and on will be negatively impacted (even if we see a decent print in Q4 GDP) as that pull-forward reverts; and finally, fourth, interest rates are rising and simultaneously refinances have plunged - hurting the 'housing recovery' meme which has been the driver of a lot of euphoria (be careful what you wish for). It appears facts, once again, get in the way of a good story.


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francis_sawyer's picture

Four Faltering Fallicies = Alotta alliteration for happy 'Hedgers' using peppy prose... Second only to:


A QUICK Caption Contest... [nobody really GOT the 'spirit' of that one Tylers]...

Stackers's picture

It's just not the same when Chuck doesnt wear a purple shirt.

ilion's picture

I'd love to see Santelli at next year's Davos event as sole speaker!

Whiteshadowmovement's picture

Hey Tylers- the mans got a point... you guys overdo it on the alliteration, especially when it comes to introducing people. This is what you did 2 weeks go for Jim Grant (1/13):

"bespectacled and bow-tie-bound bond brain-box"

C'mon guys- *really?*

Not only are you just showing off (and Im sure your teachers would be really impressed at how many you manage to squeeze in) but the cuteness really wears off. Its a strain for the reader to trip over that while skimming and lose reading momentum.

And just so you dont take me for an asshole for complaining on the first day, Ive actually put a donation in your tip jar (order 1195 in case you're reading, so you know im not bullshitting you) to show its meant constructively. Love you guys! (especially end of day chart tyler(s) and the one that keeps an eye on the euro rise despite lack of omment enthusiasm!)

Freddie's picture

The overuse of this phrase "really" has become far far more tedious.  Drop it.   Everyone I talk to uses that idiotic "really?"   

The only thing dumber is idiots who use the term, "having said that." They sound like ****ing morons and they think it sounds sophisticated. 

mkhs's picture

Really?  I kinda like it.

Freddie's picture

Anyone have a good interest rate chart showing the uptick mentioned by Tyler?  I saw a mortgage one on Zillow and last week there was a uptick.

slaughterer's picture

Biderman went 100% short almost 200 ES points below.   Santelli seems unusually artifical in his obsequiousness towards Biderman in this video.  Chuck's inflow/outflow arguments does not factor in the flows of QE3 enough.  

Big Slick's picture

You're just used to seeing him go balls to the wall against some Keynesian pin-head

fonzannoon's picture

I can only summarize that 1) Inflows ARE coming into equities. That goes against what I had been reading here. But it seems to be the case. 2) Biderman may make some sense, but his forecasts and market calls are horrendous.

Santelli had his cheerleader outfit on for the durable good numbers this morning. I miss the good old days when the numbers came out and he would spend the rest of the day prying them apart.


SDRII's picture

BlackRock's (NYSE: BLK ) iShares fund manager will raise fees on a raft of its foreign exchange-traded funds, the company disclosed in an SEC filing. According to the filing, several of its titles will have minor increases. These include the popular iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index Fund, which will increase its management fee to 0.69% from 0.67%.

UnRealized Reality's picture

1) Inflows ARE coming into equities. That goes against what I had been reading here.


Well, if you listen to the crap here at ZH and all the conspiracy nuts you will lose your shirt.

Of coarse inflow are up in equities, where else is all that money going to go once it leaves treasuries.Oh, I forgot gold,lol. It's called capital flows. But people here believe everything will go the zero except gold, geez, what lunatics.

Town Crier's picture

Everything will go to zero except gold and silver.  You forgot silver.

UnRealized Reality's picture

No problem, anytime. I'll be around more to tell all these conspiracy nuts I told you so.

fonzannoon's picture

what exactly is the conspiracy you are referring to?

Dr. Engali's picture

You're feeding the trolls again Fonz

fonzannoon's picture

my apologies. good lookin out.

Blankenstein's picture

I'm sure QE ad infinitum has nothing to do with it .......


It's starting to sound like 2006 again when the housing bubblers laughed at and called anyone who didn't join the herd names.  

conspiracy nut, lunatic .......


kliguy38's picture

Of course you are right just as you were in 07 in the same last retail money trap as the big sharks circled the burdgeoning rubber raft floating above the dark water with the hapless, fat retail schmucks.....I still recall battling your ilk online through March 08 when Bear put a stopper in your piehole for a few weeks then again you floated back to the surface in May as all good turds do and again 08 brought you down kept bobbing up every short squeeze until your masters bottomed the market in 09 but by then most of your ilk were wiped

prodigious_idea's picture

What most of the commentary here seems to skip over is nearly all of the investment held by individuals is through some form of employer-sponsored plan that only offers two investment options - stocks or bonds.  While some hold investment outside these plans, it is a rounding error to the total.  And since contributions are usually at a fixed rate, inflows continue and material re-allocation always lags market movement.

dunce's picture

I think part of the inflows are from all the fiscal cliff dividend distributions in Dec...i know i got more than usual but see few things i have faith in as safe bets or even being in the game. I am sitting on more cash than i ever have, usually i am near fully invested. I am afraid and if i was not so near my grave i would cash out and leave the country. It feels like a bubble to me.

otto skorzeny's picture

I think Santelli is starting to suffer from Stockholm Syndrome from being on CNBC

buzzsaw99's picture

i don't see how anyone could not be bullsih, i mean the "market" is up a whopping 3% ytd. [/sarc.]

CaptainSpaulding's picture

What, No beach mural?

Shizzmoney's picture

It's pretty sad that the only people you see talking about (before tax) incomes dropping/stagnating isn't from the "liberal" cabinet of the White House of the United States, or from the leader of the "opposition" GOP party trying to garner votes....... but from a correspondent from the financial media and a fuckin' Hedge Fund manager.

Interesting times, indeed.

If you want to be humbled for a minute, read Hamilton Nolan's "Unemployment Stories"......THEN you tell me if the economy is "improving":

Being Free's picture

It's not all bad.  I got a "buy 1 get 1 free" coupon today for Fancy Feast.  The wife and I are going to eat good tonight!

Never One Roach's picture

"BAE Systems will be reducing its 11,000-employee workforce by 300 positions, with 200 of the layoffs coming at Southern New Hampshire locations, according to company spokesman Kristin Gossel.

"This was a very difficult decision for our company, but a necessary....blah blah blah..."


Moor Green Shutz.

yogibear's picture

The CNBS crooners have to spin this positive so the fund managers soak up some more shares.

The pension fund managers are now in Las Vegas mode. They have lavish offices placing huge bets on stocks.

Snoopy the Economist's picture

Sure but how does the $4B per day that the fed pumps into the market offset all the data?

Bobportlandor's picture

"...two somewhat skeptical gentleme..."

Actually I hear three people speaking. Santelli and two in Bidermon trying to speak at the same time.

yogibear's picture

No Worry, the Bureau of Lies and Scams will cook the employment numbers and make the numbers look mighty fine.

It's about keeping the market rally going and blowing this rally into one of the biggest bubble in history.

Renewable Life's picture

God when are people going to put together, that the BLS numbers don't mean dick, as long as the food stamp, unemployment, disability and welfare payments continue unabated!!

Dr. Engali's picture

Was it just me or did it seem that Rick tolerates Charles at best?

fonzannoon's picture

Rick mailed it in a long time ago Doc and Charles still owes Schiff ana apology.

Remington IV's picture

Biderman's right as often as Barry Ritholtz is

OutLookingIn's picture

You gotta ask yourself just one question -

'Am I better of this year then last?'

If yes? Then you are in the top 10% and nothing to worry about.

If not? Then you are in the bottom 90% and "pucker" up!

Recovery? Not so much for the bottom percentile.

tbone654's picture

at least the bottom can rest assured they will AT LEAST pay their fair share...

All Risk No Reward's picture

The top 10% group has plenty to worry about.

They think they are at the table when they are actually at the far side of the plate...  and The Diner views them as the most succulent dish of all!

Delusional, self centered fools!

Let's hope the police don't fall for the "you can keep your guns if you help us take everyone else's self defense weapons" ruse.

Once they get everyone else's guns, it will be easy to go after the police guns... and they will.

Fluoride in the water correlates with dramatically lower IQs, tough, so maybe they will be morons and fall for this con.

2.5 PPM correlated to a 7% reduction in IQ.

3.5 PPM correlated to an increase in mental retardation from 3% to 22%.

The bankster handmaiden government tried to trick the EPA into raising the limit to 4 PPM.

The EPA scientists sued the government to force them to provide FLUORIDE FREE WATER to EPA headquarters.

BTW, read the EPA scientist's article and note the format and all the research studied.

Now try to find a pro-fluoride article that is 25% as thorough as that article.

I couldn't find one.  Appeal to authority is their fallacy of choice to push brain damaging and cancer causing toxic waste on the population.

Brain damaged people are easier to manipulate and more cancer means more profit!

Why?  Because these people are stupid while the toxic waste ingesters are **BRILLIANT!**, right?

vegasjack's picture

Rick Santelliis a corprate whore pig and against anything Obama wants to do 

tbone654's picture

for numerous obvious reasons...

tbone654's picture

hell, I'm against anything Obama... and no one has ever called me a corporate pig...

tbone654's picture

I guess that would make them "mutually exclusive"...  In fact I think Obama is more of a corporate pig than just about any other whore...

vegasjack's picture

hell, I'm against anything Obama

so you voted for romney and your not for corporations ?