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The Spanish Housing Market Is About To Bottom

Tyler Durden's picture





 

Why? Because once it hits 0 in a few months, it can't go any lower.

 


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Mon, 01/28/2013 - 09:17 | Link to Comment j.tennquist
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Buy now and you will not only recieve one Chia pet but two at no extra cost

But wait!  If you order in the next 10 minutes we'll include a home in Spain!  

Coming soon to an infomercial near you.

Mon, 01/28/2013 - 09:20 | Link to Comment GetZeeGold
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Coming soon to an infomercial near you.

 

But wait....there's more. Buy now and we guarantee a bottom.

Mon, 01/28/2013 - 09:45 | Link to Comment Sudden Debt
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I don't think that people trapped inside the hull of Titanic when it was going down really cared if and when it was going to hit the bottom...

Mon, 01/28/2013 - 14:31 | Link to Comment AldousHuxley
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Spain is Mexico of Europe. winter vacation land and for brits to get drunk in.

 

Spain not doing well when she lost her colonies ....

 

 

IT HAS ALWAYS BEEN ABOUT COLONIES....

 

 

Mon, 01/28/2013 - 14:40 | Link to Comment auric1234
auric1234's picture

It hasn't hit bottom on that either. There's still some room to go.

 

Mon, 01/28/2013 - 10:01 | Link to Comment resurger
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haha

Mon, 01/28/2013 - 09:26 | Link to Comment trav777
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Spain is a cool place; I was just there.  Things seemed to be ok despite the talk of catastrophe.  Life goes on.

Mon, 01/28/2013 - 09:28 | Link to Comment GetZeeGold
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Life goes on.

 

In the ICU it's mission one.

Mon, 01/28/2013 - 10:39 | Link to Comment myptofvu
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Hope what you say remains true but doesn't Spain have an alarmingly high Youth unemployment rate? That statistic usually doesn'y bode well over time.

Mon, 01/28/2013 - 11:01 | Link to Comment Stuntgirl
Stuntgirl's picture

Spaniards are clinging desperately and obsessively to this image of " Things seemed to be ok despite the talk of catastrophe.  Life goes on."

When you absolutely run out of ways to stop pretending, the fall is much greater.

It breaks my brain everyday to watch people pretend nothing is goin on:

"My income has been cut by 50%, and my 4 unemployed kids are working 800 Euro jobs in Germany as engineers, but I still price my apartment at 300K, and even though I'm running down my savings to pay for grandma's medication, everything is peachy, or it will be by summer".

Mon, 01/28/2013 - 12:09 | Link to Comment trav777
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GFD the sky is ALWAYS FALLING for you gd idiots.

Life is OK in Spain.  People are out walking around and living.  SO WHAT if they don't have as much material CRAP anymore?

Tyler should rename himself because the TD in the movie repudiated life of materialism and was FINE with less crap and more meaningful relationships; that was the central theme of the gd movie.

This place has gone to total sh!t and become a doomer goon board full of people wanting the world to explode.  You all think you're going to be kings or something because you have "lots of ammo and AR15s."  What a bunch of clowns.

Mon, 01/28/2013 - 12:24 | Link to Comment Raynja
Raynja's picture

Maybe Spain is ok with no material objects. That doesn't explain how the global ponzi will survive with no one buying anything (you know what zh is actually here for, not if individuals are happy our sad they cannot buy new shit).

Mon, 01/28/2013 - 14:38 | Link to Comment AldousHuxley
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biology will guarantee that life will go on.....for now.

 

but the quality of life is a different but important question for those living the life.

 

and whether one can improve one's position in life via opportunities offered by the society is important for the future of one's life.

 

 

Mon, 01/28/2013 - 12:40 | Link to Comment Gordon Freeman
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@trav777

Thank you--very well put!

Mon, 01/28/2013 - 13:02 | Link to Comment elvinodiablo
elvinodiablo's picture

Agreed.

I fail to see how waiting for a chance to unload your semi-autos on the civilian population is something to look forward to in the US.

Reminds me of a conversation I had with a guy in Lithuania just after Katrina blew away New Orleans. His grandparents survived the nazi siege of Leningrad when people were so hungry they ate rats and even worse in order to survive, but everyone helped out and shared around whatever food they had. Compare that to Katrina when you had a few hundred americans holed up in a stadium for 48 hours threatening to bleow each others head off for a can of coke and mars bar.

You tell me which society is more stable when the going gets tough. 

I'll take Europe any day thanks. And Spain will be near the top of the list.

 

Mon, 01/28/2013 - 13:43 | Link to Comment Ropingdown
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In reverse order: An AR-15 or two and some ammo isn't expected to make anyone a king. It is simply the contemporary equivalent of the closet of weapons that was part of any non-poor house since Classical times.  The historical oddity was to see the growing and PC absence of these rarely-needed items in certain EU nations. As for the next commenter's thought that Europe is more stable in tough times, the last 95 years, or 70...clearly gives that the lie.  I spend part of each year in Spain.  I pay a "non-resident income tax" which is essentially a doubling of my RE tax plus a percentage of my maximum in-country bank balance during the year.  Meanwhile, the township government has just declared a 50% off deal for people who really live in Seville or Málaga, but agree to declare my beach town their 'main residence.'  I love my long-time friends in Spain very much, but if they don't work (or didn't) for the government, they're going broke.  My beach neighborhood is increasingly full of russians, and the nights have become more violence-infused.  Even the friend's child who has a great job with RENFE (permanent, not contract) is about to get down-sized out.  The maintenance bill for the HS trains and new highways will become unmanagable in two or three years.  I would wish they had left the Euro three years ago and let the bad banks fail.  That was their chance.  They should have pullled an Iceland.  I'll keep the house for twenty more years, regardless.  Guns, especially handguns and shotguns, are slowly proliferating, incidentally.  Corruption is rampant.  Working black is almost the norm.

Mon, 01/28/2013 - 14:37 | Link to Comment tip e. canoe
tip e. canoe's picture

keyword: living : something the spaniards know how to do with much more grace, elegance & fun no matter how much confetti they have in their pockets.

Mon, 01/28/2013 - 14:43 | Link to Comment AldousHuxley
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after losing a war or two and loss of colonies, people find out what matters more than stuff.....time.

 

time to enjoy good family laughter, good food, good marital relations, good weather, good health....

 

Americans just watch TV families fake laughing, eat shit food at TGIF, marry for all the wrong reasons, live in shitty weather like  NYC, and shitty life gave them shitty health....basically Americans are rich on paper, but poor in real life

Mon, 01/28/2013 - 15:21 | Link to Comment Blankenstein
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All the sheep on the housing bandwagon also called anyone who didn't go along with the herd a gloom and doomer.  

Mon, 01/28/2013 - 15:45 | Link to Comment Stuntgirl
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Funny that.

Mon, 01/28/2013 - 15:17 | Link to Comment Stuntgirl
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I KNOW if life is ok in Spain because I LIVE here.

I have NO ammo or guns, because AGAIN, I LIVE IN SPAIN.

People are walking around and living, yes, as they did just before the civil war, and I KNOW about that, because my family who WERE IN IT can tell me about it. I don't want the world to explode and can't begin to imagine why you'd say that, but I AM SEEING, CURRENTLY, a dangerous rift between the PEOPLE ON THE STREET who pretend that nothing is going on, and ACTUAL TALK OF VIOLENT REVOLUTION IN CAFES.

 

Mon, 01/28/2013 - 16:09 | Link to Comment tango
tango's picture

While a retirement pension is not a "thing" it is near and dear to Spainards approaching a certain age.   And the fact that the largest fund in Spain have "invested" 3/4 of their assets in sovereign debt should give pause to the most carefree citizen.  I mean, when the money folks are expecting to live on (who saves anymore?) is not there and the only way to produce it is through that same soverign debt we have a problem.

Mon, 01/28/2013 - 09:40 | Link to Comment midtowng
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Kuhl! I've been wanting a chia pet.

Mon, 01/28/2013 - 09:16 | Link to Comment ghostzapper
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Tyler - you are slipping man!  We need the arrow so the cheerleaders can understand the trend. 

Mon, 01/28/2013 - 09:15 | Link to Comment fonzannoon
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Hey sorry for the OT but CNBcrap has reported a few times this am that Trimtabs has reported that 54 billion has flowed IN to Equity funds in January. That is the highest monthly inflow since some time in 2007 when people asked to be beaten again. Is that accurate? I think ZH has reported a few times that the inflow story is false.

Mon, 01/28/2013 - 09:39 | Link to Comment Transitory
Transitory's picture

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-01-25/second-consecutive-week-outflow...

 

Could it be a difference in time periods? (January vrs. Weekly). Not that it changes Tyler's premise of retail leaving equities, as inflows into equities are less than the outflow from mutual funds.

Mon, 01/28/2013 - 09:45 | Link to Comment fonzannoon
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I am not sure. Thanks for posting that link. But there is a huge disconnect.

Mon, 01/28/2013 - 10:51 | Link to Comment toady
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$54B equity + $31B into corporate coffers = $85B monthly fed pump.

Mon, 01/28/2013 - 09:16 | Link to Comment ziggy59
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Seems ZHs logo applies to most things these days

Mon, 01/28/2013 - 09:17 | Link to Comment falak pema
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yes it can, it can go negative; like the Fed Zirp in inflation terms or the German short term bonds.

"We pay you to use the toilets in our empty buildings. That way we can say our RE is alive and pissing."

Mon, 01/28/2013 - 10:55 | Link to Comment toady
toady's picture

More like pay a maintenance company to keep the grass mowed and board up the broken windows.

Mon, 01/28/2013 - 11:11 | Link to Comment BidnessMan
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And the Munis that paid for the sewer system are valued at par!

Mon, 01/28/2013 - 09:19 | Link to Comment luckylongshot
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And the question was "Can you say something positive about the Spanish housing market?"

Mon, 01/28/2013 - 13:15 | Link to Comment Charles Wilson
Charles Wilson's picture

"I'm positive that the Spanish housing market is completely Crashed."

Mon, 01/28/2013 - 09:18 | Link to Comment Shizzmoney
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It's gonna be great when this starts to happen in the US in 7-10 years.

Mon, 01/28/2013 - 11:08 | Link to Comment BidnessMan
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That long??

Mon, 01/28/2013 - 12:57 | Link to Comment Shizzmoney
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Unfortunately, with the unlimited QE, yes.  The can kicking will hold until Obama leaves office, but then starts to rear its ugly head as the new admin moves in (R or D).

Plus, the Baby Boomers (otherwise known as "The Last Class with Capital") will sell off their houses (or move into their last ones).  Once this class dies off, a huge devaluation of houses will probably be the biggest change this country will ever see, as it "suddenly" learns that the Baby Boomers' sons and daughters: have NO MONEY (or not enough to afford the inflation the Fed seeks with homes).

Mon, 01/28/2013 - 16:19 | Link to Comment tango
tango's picture

This is starting to happen.  While searching for rural land we ran across literally dozens of huge tracts that were - for the first time - leaving family ownership.  Grandma and Grandpapa Baby Boomers are too old to take care of it, grown kids are too consumed with keeping afloat and grandkids couldn't will work only under threat of torture.  Finally found a place - 20 acres woods/farm, 20 acres of lake.  Start infrastructure this summer. I truly worry about folks "retiring" with less than $10K (33% of all retirees) existing on dubious SS payments.  Oh well, guess that's what food stamps, housing allowance, energy credits and welfare is for. 

Mon, 01/28/2013 - 09:20 | Link to Comment Headbanger
Headbanger's picture

Yes it could go negative with reverse mortgages

Mon, 01/28/2013 - 10:30 | Link to Comment CoolBeans
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+100 Headbanger for your avatar.

Mon, 01/28/2013 - 09:21 | Link to Comment Dr. Engali
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If only they had somebody to print money and buy their bonds that would fix the problem.... Hey wait a tic..

Mon, 01/28/2013 - 09:20 | Link to Comment andrewp111
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An all-cash housing market is very different from a housing market "going to zero".

Mon, 01/28/2013 - 10:36 | Link to Comment Watson
Watson's picture

Agreed.

And an all-cash housing market, in any sort of developed economy, is a rare thing indeed.

Others putting 100% of their _own_ skin in the game is a strong point, particularly if they do so in decent numbers.

Mon, 01/28/2013 - 09:20 | Link to Comment GCT
GCT's picture

You can now get citizenship if you buy some property in Spain.  This is indeed a crazy world we live in.

Mon, 01/28/2013 - 09:27 | Link to Comment ghostzapper
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This will be the exact strategy the US will use to try and perk things up after the next major meltdown in housing here.  Flash a few bucks, pass the background check, and upon purchase of a home you will be a citizen.  I think it will actually be quite effective given the least brutal ugly chick left at the bar scenario. 

Mon, 01/28/2013 - 09:57 | Link to Comment Oldrepublic
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no not citizenship, only the right to live there!

Mon, 01/28/2013 - 10:05 | Link to Comment Frozen IcQb
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...and the citizenship or residency taxation that comes with it!

Mon, 01/28/2013 - 09:25 | Link to Comment Haus-Targaryen
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I don't feel sorry for the Spanish what-so-ever.  They want to stay in the Euro and be European.  Enjoy austerity bitchez.  

 

Until the people es masse are "Get us the fuck outta here ..." no sympathy and they shouldn't receive any charity either.  My tax €€€ getting stolen from me and given to some poor Latin bastard in 3. . . 2 . . . (oh wait fuck me). 

Mon, 01/28/2013 - 10:49 | Link to Comment BobPaulson
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You are implying they have a choice. Interesting.

Mon, 01/28/2013 - 09:27 | Link to Comment buckethead
buckethead's picture

Spain in nice. Once the rioting stops... if one is independently wealthy, and can afford security, and doesn't mind subjugation to the ECB.... well, nevermind. Buying Spain is buying Spain's liabilities. Thinking it through doesn't make the picture any prettier.

Mon, 01/28/2013 - 09:28 | Link to Comment Downtoolong
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once it hits 0 in a few months, it can't go any lower.

Wrong. Here's how it works. I'll take your house off your hands now if you will prepay the transfer costs, taxes, and maintenance for the next three years. See. What's good for Detroit is good for Spain too.

Mon, 01/28/2013 - 09:34 | Link to Comment PowerzThatB
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Would be nice to buy something there eventually on the cheap, but then I remembered their extremely high youth unemployment numbers. Not good. No thanks.

Mon, 01/28/2013 - 09:38 | Link to Comment Haus-Targaryen
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Prices in Spain are not cheap.  Miami & Caribbean Condos are cheaper.  Look for yourself, you see these shitbox apartments for sale 100m2 for 285.000€.  Who in God's name would pay that in a country that is teetering on bankruptcy?  Take that 2 off the front and then it'll be much more appealing.  Like the US housing market, the Spanish housing market is being artifically inflated by funny money.  What a damn shame.   

Mon, 01/28/2013 - 09:36 | Link to Comment Sudden Debt
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This is called ROOM TO MANEUVER!

And now that it's been published on the internet, it means that it's all calculated into the stocks already.

SO NEED NOT WORRY ABOUT IT! LET'S BURN THE LIFEBOATS AND HAVE OURSELVES SOME MARSHMELLOWS!

Mon, 01/28/2013 - 09:36 | Link to Comment youngman
youngman's picture

You might have a cheap house...but the expenses are going up...way up.....

Mon, 01/28/2013 - 09:52 | Link to Comment Sudden Debt
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Unless you broke into the house, claimed as yours for a few years AND THAN IT'S LEGALLY YOURS FOR FREE!!!

Mon, 01/28/2013 - 09:46 | Link to Comment negative rates
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Most of the latest growth in Spain came via dirt roads and suv's. Where the real cost is in maintaining those items once they reach the age of maturity,  about 3-5 years, that happens to be almost now by the way.

Mon, 01/28/2013 - 09:47 | Link to Comment schatzi
schatzi's picture

"Is About To Bottom"

made me giggle. Zerohedge is always good for a laugh.

Mon, 01/28/2013 - 09:58 | Link to Comment jubber
jubber's picture

of course the IBEX is positive on this great news

Mon, 01/28/2013 - 10:18 | Link to Comment Uncle Zuzu
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Wooo, I m going to buy me a nice little spread in Marbella with a pool and hang out with the Arab Sheikhs and Russian oligarchs on their superyachts.

Mon, 01/28/2013 - 10:39 | Link to Comment mr_T
mr_T's picture

I still live in Spain.. love it here not paradise for many.. It's the young generation that will need to turn things around globally. GC .. if u have nothing left to loose u loose it.. bank holiday... U don't get all ur money back.. Gerald C crazy but right on many issues. GGG

Waiting for the GREAT RESET to buy some cribs out here. Madrid still expensive relative to historical values. Waiting until we overshoot bottom of Bell curve..

Mon, 01/28/2013 - 10:54 | Link to Comment Stuntgirl
Stuntgirl's picture

Same here.

It looks to me that the people here are being very slow to realize what's going on and adapt.

That graph is for new mortgages, but prices have nowhere near bottomed out.

I already have my eye on a few properties, but i'm giving it two years. What's your timeline estimate for prices bottoming out?

Mon, 01/28/2013 - 10:52 | Link to Comment W74
W74's picture

You're still at 35K mortgages approved.  How many actual sales this'll translate into....we'll see I guess. 

Didn't we sell a grand total of 26,000 homes in the US in December out of a population of 315,000,000?  So one home for every 12115 residents.  If the monthly trend continues out of the whole year only one resident out of a thousand will move into a new home. 

Methinks we're oversupplied on filthy, lying Realtors who barely have GEDs and no other job skills and who bought their own hype and put themselves massivly into debt during the boom years.

Mon, 01/28/2013 - 10:55 | Link to Comment Expat
Expat's picture

There is an assumption here that the minimum price for a house is zero.  As shown by the Detroit housing market, the minimum price for a house can be negative. 

I am not saying Spanish house prices will go negative on average, but why not here or there.  After all, as our Leader and Inspiration David Lereah likes to remind us, all housing is local.

Mon, 01/28/2013 - 10:56 | Link to Comment orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

Wrong.

 

Once the Spanish Market hits zero, a game of asteroids takes over and starts vaporizing the chart with laser blasts.

Mon, 01/28/2013 - 11:37 | Link to Comment uranian
uranian's picture

I know of entire villages that are being given away in Asturias, on the basis that some people actually come live in the long-abandoned, mountainous terrain.

Mon, 01/28/2013 - 12:17 | Link to Comment Floodmaster
Floodmaster's picture

Spain National Average (€ 242,000/USD $325925) is twice the US National Average. Please do your homework next time before posting article

Mon, 01/28/2013 - 14:33 | Link to Comment Tursas
Tursas's picture

Aint't so!

Mon, 01/28/2013 - 12:29 | Link to Comment JJSF
JJSF's picture

Sorry folks..  Buying Santander shares for the past 3 weeks..  9% div, ECB willing to do anything to keep this going..  Good position. I'm in Europe.. Things are bottomed imo..

Mon, 01/28/2013 - 12:35 | Link to Comment Expat
Expat's picture

I am curious...do you live in Europe?  Cuz from a local point of view, I can tell you it's pretty ugly.

Mon, 01/28/2013 - 13:14 | Link to Comment JJSF
JJSF's picture

It's really overhyped with the exception of the periphery. Things are picking up and sentiment in general is really gaining traction.  Dont get me wrong, i was the bear of bears but the past 3 months ive seen enough to make some big moves in the opposite direction.

I'm buying real estate brokerages as they are going for a song (the entire businesses, not shares) and selective bank shares like Santander and Bank of Ireland.

Soveriegn bond auctions have been going well and the euro has cranked up enough to the upside that good a print fest will not demage the euro too much..  The banks are going to start lending and this is the bottom.. My take..

Buffet is now hip to whats about to happen in housing and is forming real estate brokerages from scratch.. Thats states though..

Mon, 01/28/2013 - 12:33 | Link to Comment Black Markets
Black Markets's picture

Free spiderman towels!!

Mon, 01/28/2013 - 12:55 | Link to Comment Floodmaster
Floodmaster's picture

To me it's look like a post-crash market.

Mon, 01/28/2013 - 14:55 | Link to Comment bugs_
bugs_'s picture

One things fer sure the TAXES on 'em won't go negahtiff!

Mon, 01/28/2013 - 14:59 | Link to Comment slackrabbit
slackrabbit's picture

'Why? Because once it hits 0 in a few months, it can't go any lower.'

Wanna bet? Remember folks, we're in Wonderland...
Mon, 01/28/2013 - 15:00 | Link to Comment unclebill
unclebill's picture

buy buy buy..

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