This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.

Amazon Misses, Growth Slows, Guides Lower, P/E Goes Negative And Stock Soars

Tyler Durden's picture


The most cartoonish stock of all time just came out with results that can only be characterized as WTF. To wit:

  • Q4 revenue of $21.27 billion missed expectations of $22.23 billion
  • Q1 EPS of $0.21 missed expectations of $0.27;
  • The firm guided top-line lower, seeing Q1 sales of $15-$16 billion, below the estimate of $16.5 billion
  • The firm guided operating income much lower, seeing Q1 op income of ($285)-$65 Million on expectations of $261.4 MM
  • The firm said the its physical books sales had the lowest growth in 17 years
  • Total employees grew by 7,000 in the quarter and 32,200 Y/Y to a record 88,400
  • Worldwide net sales Y/Y growth was the slowest in years at 23%, down from 30% in Q3 and 34% a year ago
  • And, last and certainly least, LTM Net Income is now officially negative, or ($49) meaning as of this moment the firm with the idiotically high PE has an even more idiotic N/M PE.

... And the stock is soaring in the after hours. Thank you DE Shaw, or actually that is Mr. Bezos who should thank you for the latest AH favor where accelerated HFT buying creates the impression that the numbers were good. They weren't.

Some of the charts accompanying this farce.

Total Employees and Worldwide net sales growth:

Operating and Net Income

LTM Operating Income Margin %

Operating Income Margin % by Quarter

AMZN Free Cash Flow as defined: EBITDA - CapEx

And LTM Net Income

Which means Market Cap to Net Income, or P/E, is now negative, or as it is better known in the industry: N/M.

And now ignore reality: after all the thesis is that the more AMZN loses, the more of its competitors will supposedly go out of business, and greater AMZN's pricing power eventually.

Just not yet.


- advertisements -

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
Tue, 01/29/2013 - 17:26 | 3196290 Water Is Wet
Water Is Wet's picture

This is what winning feels like.  Welcome to the "No P/E" club Amazon!

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 17:26 | 3196293 camaro68ss
camaro68ss's picture


Im in a F***ing MAD HOUSE!

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 17:33 | 3196323 Pool Shark
Pool Shark's picture



"We first had to destroy the company... in order to save the company..."



Tue, 01/29/2013 - 17:35 | 3196333 fourchan
fourchan's picture

this ah action is like two algos fucking a football.

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 17:48 | 3196411 Divided States ...
Divided States of America's picture

If i were an investment banking analyst, this would be my favorite stock to cover because I just slap on a STRONG BUY rating and basically ratchet up the Target Price 20 bucks every quarterly earnings report is announced.

No need to look at financials, ratios or metrics....nothing...the analytical work on AMZN entails just browsing the site and seeing whats the 'deal of the day' is.

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 18:44 | 3196601 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

Best worst news, EVAR!

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 19:04 | 3196684 CPL
CPL's picture

Hooray!  Burn Rate FTW!  Which would be a great thing for a start up fucking around with VC money...

Except it's publicly traded with pension money, most large portfolios and Algos flipping it.

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 19:16 | 3196729 James_Cole
James_Cole's picture

These are GREAT numbers! As is traditional with Amazon, the more earnings drops the higher the stock climbs.

Based on these stellar numbers we can look forward to $400 Amzn in the near future! I'm just crossing my fingers they can do even worse when reporting q2, potential $1000 stock if they get down to 5c. Bezos has my full confidence. 

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 02:12 | 3197927 Rathmullan
Rathmullan's picture

Well why wouldn't it soar. I mean afterall, you're only talking about about 167 times 2013's earnings estimate which has a range wide enough to drive mayez bloombergersteinsky's ego thru (in other words "I duhno). Besides, amzn has only been around for a mere 15 years so its best hyperbolic lies ahead as internet access penetration is only nine percent (or is it ninety percent) of households.

So a no name wanna name chop shop foils bezos's rare "let's pull this bitch out of the stratosphere" moment. That perfectly sums up the market we're in says me.  

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 18:39 | 3196588 ZippyBananaPants
ZippyBananaPants's picture

Isnt that something how in the last minute they hit all the stop orders to $260 and then its back at 285 after hours? 

Almost like cheating?

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 18:39 | 3196589 ZippyBananaPants
ZippyBananaPants's picture

Isnt that something how in the last minute they hit all the stop orders to $260 and then its back at 285 after hours? 

Almost like cheating?

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 19:07 | 3196697 CPL
CPL's picture

And that's why shorting anything or going long on anything is completely and totally insane for anyone that wants to keep their money, status and roof over their heads.


Stay out of the pool, it's infected with plague.

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 21:35 | 3197256 Marge N Call
Marge N Call's picture

+100. THAT was fucking funny! I mean, honestly, who here has never fucked a football? Oh, I mean...nothing.


Tue, 01/29/2013 - 21:03 | 3197132 Buck Johnson
Buck Johnson's picture

Amazon is the online version of Walmart.  When Amazon is having trouble then the rest are having trouble also.  We are  in trouble.

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 01:08 | 3197840 SokPOTUS
SokPOTUS's picture

well....stop trading with Jim Cramer....

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 17:30 | 3196307 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

Imagine if AMZN made even less money, had even lower revenues, and an even lower (negative) margin--then we would be flying above $1,000 by now!

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 17:39 | 3196360 Cdad
Cdad's picture

When does AMZN start crediting my account when I buy something from them?

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 23:00 | 3197536 CPL
CPL's picture


Tue, 01/29/2013 - 18:04 | 3196470 Squid Vicious
Squid Vicious's picture

Bezos just announced he's selling half his remaining shares to build another spaceship... should see $300/ share tomorrow

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 18:16 | 3196509 Pure Evil
Pure Evil's picture

Amazon is the new Apple, or was Apple the old Amazon, or is Apple the new/old Amazon.

Oh my, I'm confused now, is it time for my meds?

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 19:03 | 3196682 EclecticParrot
EclecticParrot's picture

It's actually quite simple in the convoluted world of institutional investing:  one can easily imagine a strong competitor for AAPL (some would say Sammy-sung), while no one can honestly picture, even if we go 78% mobile, a true threat to what AMZN does.  Face-broke?  Nope.  Googly?  Naw.  eeeeBay?  Please!  

For two, perhaps three decades hence, folks will visit their hallowed site first for everything from razor blades (Gillette 7 O'clock blacks or Astras, anyone?) to blenders to collectibles (like a Nick Drake box set on original vinyl).  eBay's "buy now" button can't compete with a list of dozens of "market place sellers" with used versions of any item you want.

So, lazy institution investors and hedgie-wedgies use AAPL to play let's-build-a-big-campfire-in-front-of-a-train, fucking each other with stop runs, VWAP algos, and nod-and-a-wink frothy collusion, while AMZN is a 'core holding' they don't have to ever look at more than once a decade to "trim".

Even so, I believe it is, in fact, time for your meds, for if you visit this site you must be a follower of these ludicrous markets, which have visitors from other planets (the ones who originally seeded Earth with amino acids and other building blocks eons ago) laughing their body parts off (no, they don't really have asses, per say).

Thus, it'll lick 300 tomorrow, then sell off 15%.



Tue, 01/29/2013 - 19:09 | 3196707 CPL
CPL's picture thirty years I bet more kids will know how to bridle and saddle a horse than know what an 'internet' is.

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 19:39 | 3196812 EclecticParrot
EclecticParrot's picture

Given our fiscal trajectory, no one will be able to afford horses at that point.  Plus, real things that move, snort and poop in big heaps (no, not finance ministers) won't appeal to generation YYY.  Instead, they'll just buy the "Horsey" app for 88c.

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 01:12 | 3197850 SokPOTUS
SokPOTUS's picture

Nah...all the horses will be eaten by then...

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 20:29 | 3197009 chubbyjjfong
chubbyjjfong's picture

They have that fantastic, inversly proportional, bilateral agreement with Apple.  You scratch my back.. I'll lick your balls.

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 17:34 | 3196338 Xibalba
Xibalba's picture

don't let facts fool you!

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 18:03 | 3196466 cynicalskeptic
cynicalskeptic's picture

Listening to Bloomberg and the cable types you'd think that things are great!  really, really GREAT!  

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 17:58 | 3196441 LongSoupLine
LongSoupLine's picture

What the Fuck...


Fuck it...I'm going out and drinking heavy tonight until I shit my pants.

You guys are welcome to fucking join me if you want.

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 18:16 | 3196510 mirac
mirac's picture


Tue, 01/29/2013 - 18:17 | 3196516 graneros
graneros's picture

Ya know as much fun as that sounds, I uh think I'm gonna have to pass.  But hey you have a good time.  You might want to think about hitting the town wearing something like coveralls. +1

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 18:21 | 3196527 Squid Vicious
Squid Vicious's picture

already accomplished both today without leaving the house.... 

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 19:09 | 3196706 flacon
flacon's picture

My wife wonders why I start drinking at 9:30:01 AM...

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 19:45 | 3196839 eclectic syncretist
eclectic syncretist's picture

Party at Jeff Bezos tonight bitchez!

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 01:15 | 3197857 SokPOTUS
SokPOTUS's picture

Some chicks like that.  You might get lucky.

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 19:34 | 3196797 bobthehorse
bobthehorse's picture

It's crazy.

I'm afraid to do anything with my money.

Fraud is far too rampant.

So I just keep the green in my matress.


Tue, 01/29/2013 - 17:29 | 3196301 JustPrintMoreDuh
JustPrintMoreDuh's picture

Bullshit? no Bullish!  Buy MOAR.  #Forward.

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 17:40 | 3196376 max2205
max2205's picture

Open AH drop to 250 then the tape said margins grew......and poof....290.  

Can you say 2001?

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 17:29 | 3196302 the not so migh...
the not so mighty maximiza's picture

i love companies that don't make money, i am going all in.

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 17:31 | 3196320 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

damn... there's not enough stock for everybody...


Tue, 01/29/2013 - 17:40 | 3196372 Cdad
Cdad's picture

Probably.  First, the absolute worst of the worst within the criminal syndicate known as Wall Street need to UPGRADE the stock and RAISE PRICE TARGETS.  That'll be fun to watch.

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 17:29 | 3196303 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

It's all about eyeballs...millions upon millions of eyeballs..Who needs profits when you have eyeballs?

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 17:35 | 3196344 EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture


Tue, 01/29/2013 - 18:03 | 3196467 Groundhog Day
Groundhog Day's picture

How many hits did you get on the website?

Is Brick and mortar gonna be dead?


Tue, 01/29/2013 - 18:16 | 3196513 Pure Evil
Pure Evil's picture

Well, as long as those millions of eyeballs aren't watching me do nasty things in the bathroom........on second thought!

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 17:32 | 3196306 EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

Clearly, a 50% miss was already priced in.

SHEESH up 11%? Does this madhouse know no borders?

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 17:42 | 3196383 Cdad
Cdad's picture

Nope...not while the criminal syndicate is in the process of gathering up the world's assets...with all of it being paid for by the depreciation of Average Joe's green back.

Thank you, Ben Bernanke, for this wasteland you have created for us.

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 18:11 | 3196493 Hedgetard55
Hedgetard55's picture

+55 kajillion, Cdad.


Too many financial "experts" do not understand where the purchasing power of newly printed FRNs actually comes from!

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 17:30 | 3196308 dime2962
dime2962's picture

Must be because of the complete lack of service they provide for the Kindle Fire. A device  they sell so you will buy buy buy everything you need on amazon. 

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 17:30 | 3196309 SeverinSlade
SeverinSlade's picture

I don't see how anyone can justify going long AMZN at these levels.  Where's robotrader when you need him?

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 17:47 | 3196405 Midas
Midas's picture

Does that happen?

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 18:30 | 3196560 ihedgemyhedges
ihedgemyhedges's picture

Robo is looking at his AMZN after hours streaming quote screen and is rubbing one out.  Let's just leave him alone for a while..........

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 01:18 | 3197863 SokPOTUS
SokPOTUS's picture

The dumb bastard is laughing his ass off at all of us right now...

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 17:30 | 3196310 astoriajoe
astoriajoe's picture

I'm sure the feds pay them nicely for providing lists of what everyone buys.

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 01:20 | 3197868 SokPOTUS
SokPOTUS's picture

2,176 copies of 'Catcher In the Rye'.  Nothing else.

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 17:31 | 3196314 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

since Harry Potter... people stopped reading books...

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 17:33 | 3196327 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

 Wuts a buuk?

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 17:35 | 3196347 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

those bundeled papers with black and white line drawings that you need to colour with your crayons.
If you can keep in the lines, there's a job waiting for you at McDonalds or Wallstreet!

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 17:31 | 3196317 lizzy36
lizzy36's picture

19 years and next quarter forecast: negative operating income.

Stock is an eternal mystery. 

How do we do it:WOLUME.

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 17:32 | 3196318 SeverinSlade
SeverinSlade's picture

Step 1: Steal underpants (using a larger and larger workforce that helps translate into negative net income)
Step 2: -------
Step 3: Profit and a surging stock.

Don't argue with the Amazon gnomes.

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 21:41 | 3197273 Marge N Call
Marge N Call's picture

Fuck you pussy. With your little pussy P/E calculations. Little pussy investors afraid of losing money for 20 years. Pussy Gnomes.

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 17:32 | 3196324 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

I love it: AMZN is the poster child of the Bernanke market and the Obama society.  It epitomizes every aspect of the absurd situation of capital and retail markets.  It is absolutely without peer in the George Constanza world we live in.  

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 17:35 | 3196340 ziggy59
ziggy59's picture

Bizarro George Constanza

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 17:35 | 3196349 EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

Double bubble stock.

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 19:18 | 3196738 Whiteshadowmovement
Whiteshadowmovement's picture

Slaughterer I love ya man! Youre one of the few who truly gets itM

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 01:23 | 3197875 SokPOTUS
SokPOTUS's picture

AMZN is more like that chick Jerry Seinfeld dated that looked hot in poor lighting and scary as hell as soon as you got a look in different light.

Take AMZN out of the club and into the corridor, and eeehhhhhh-hhhhh-hh-hh-hh-hhhhh.


Tue, 01/29/2013 - 17:33 | 3196325 Cursive
Cursive's picture

Up 11% as I type.  UFB.  Impossible.  Uh...I'm speechless.

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 17:33 | 3196329 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

As Amazon is one of the 12 internet hubs, this doesn't bode well for e-commerce in general.

EBAY =>.....

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 17:34 | 3196330 Conman
Conman's picture

And there is your bubble 2.0 moment.

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 17:38 | 3196355 ziggy59
ziggy59's picture

Exactly... Wasnt it AMZN that started the dotcum bubble with Blahgit calling for AMZN 300?

History repeats...

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 21:42 | 3197278 Marge N Call
Marge N Call's picture

Yep, it repeats, just like shitty pasta salad.

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 18:49 | 3196622 Osmium
Osmium's picture

Yep.  It's the same thing.  In the .com bubble you had stocks that NEVER had positive earnings soaring to new heights.  JDSU anyone?

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 18:22 | 3196331 Ham-bone
Ham-bone's picture

Umm...isn't this how most HYPERINFLATIONS progress??? 

QE4EVER really does mean more quantity of money chasing fixed # of assets...regardless of their quality.  Bernank said there will be inflation...Bernank made sure everyone receives no yield and everyone into Risk...Everyday bank excess reserves climb further...everyday that money seems to find it's way into Risk assets...Those w/ the money first benefit the most...

Seem to recall Weimar stock market going vertical.  Funnny thing is hyperinflation seemed to actual acheive a select groups goals in Germany (those w/ capital, land, stocks, PM's, assets abroad) and didn't destroy the country...that's how unmanagable debt was and seemingly is managed. 

It's only the middle class, the poor who are destroyed but thats how unpayable debts are cancelled.  Why can't we simply call a hyperinflationary period a policy's that obvious.

US has $8+T of short term T debt and Fed owns none of it thanks to Op Twist...if Fed allows rates up on the short end that's $3T+ of 3yr and shorter debt rolling up from current net .25% to .5% or 1% or heaven forbid '07 like, no increasing rates.  Just flood the world w/ dollars and drown all debts.

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 17:34 | 3196332 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture


Tue, 01/29/2013 - 17:43 | 3196385 in-Credible Banker
in-Credible Banker's picture

+1500 PE

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 18:12 | 3196501 Ham-bone
Ham-bone's picture

PE showing as +3245???

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 21:43 | 3197279 Marge N Call
Marge N Call's picture


Tue, 01/29/2013 - 17:34 | 3196336 thismarketisrigged
thismarketisrigged's picture

bernanke owns a ton of amzn, lol;


how is this even possible. they missed badly on both the bottom and top line, guidance sucked, this is like the 20 qtr in a row of misses, yet they get rewarded but the stock prob going to 300 on this?


i can only imagine what would happen if they actually beat expectations, we would prob say a plus 200,lol.


this stuff is so comical, i cant anymore

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 17:39 | 3196337 Squid Vicious
Squid Vicious's picture

who the fuck is buying this!!!???? just added 30 billion in mkt cap since mid november...

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 18:51 | 3196644 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

Just everyone's retirement funds. Don't worry, it's cool.

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 01:25 | 3197878 SokPOTUS
SokPOTUS's picture

Rotation.  It's what happens just before the bottom falls out.  Of Everything.

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 17:35 | 3196342 JB10
JB10's picture

Bear capitulation

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 17:35 | 3196343 sitenine
sitenine's picture

Breaking: Amazon beats out both Apple and Facebook for Poster Child of The New Normal. The Bernank is expected to announce that the Fed will begin direct equity purchases of the company later this afternoon!

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 17:35 | 3196346 Clowns on Acid
Clowns on Acid's picture

Hey Tyler- It could have been worse buy buy.

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 17:35 | 3196348 monopoly
monopoly's picture

Unfucking believable. Only on Wall Street can you find this kind of value.

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 17:36 | 3196351 Frank N. Beans
Frank N. Beans's picture

it's gotta be a knee-jerk

tomorrow it gets slaughtered... finally

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 17:38 | 3196361 thismarketisrigged
thismarketisrigged's picture

disagree frank n beans. i hope u r right, but i have seen this too often with amzn, qtr after qtr missing badly, yet stock shoots up 7 plus percent. its sickening.

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 17:37 | 3196353 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

AMaZiNg, stUPendouS, rally on bitchez!

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 18:36 | 3196578 candyman
candyman's picture

Reminds me of McCaw Cellular in the late 80's but only 3,000 x's worse.

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 17:43 | 3196354 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

Was this on the "Conviction Muppet Buy" list? [brought to you by those deeply conscientious ANALysts who work hard for the money]?... 


You'd better 'treat 'her RIGHT'

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 17:38 | 3196357 jubber
jubber's picture

Guess you got to be sick as a dog if you were short, you see those shite figures and think you have made a killing and then discover you just had your arseholle ripped out with barbed wire!

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 17:40 | 3196375 thismarketisrigged
thismarketisrigged's picture

jubber, i have thought about in the past of shorting amzn, but seeing to often what happens when they miss badly qtr after qtr yet stock still shoots up, its not worth it.


this scenario was so predictable, i knew, along with many others prob they were going to miss badly, but somehow the stock soars.


i hate appl with a passion, but that company still has phenominal revenue ( 4th most in history behind only oil companies for a qtr) yet that stock drops 12 percent.


amzn misses everywhere,and it soars. makes no sense

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 18:55 | 3196654 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

Apple's time is coming.

(And by that I mean, their stock will soar once they start losing money too.)

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 01:27 | 3197881 SokPOTUS
SokPOTUS's picture

are you the jubber from market-ticker?

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 17:41 | 3196362 CaptainSpaulding
CaptainSpaulding's picture

Bezos is da man who gets me my shit .. Thanks Mr. Bozos

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 17:38 | 3196364 otto skorzeny
otto skorzeny's picture

another puzzler like YAHOO!-what has that dumb whore marissa mayer done to double that POS in the last year?

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 17:41 | 3196377 Squid Vicious
Squid Vicious's picture

tribal ritual that you'll never be invited to

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 01:27 | 3197883 SokPOTUS
SokPOTUS's picture

hahahaha!  Nice.

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 17:39 | 3196369 JB10
JB10's picture

Numbers missed slightly but are still record for Amazon. Guidance weak but Bezos loves to guide low - it's what he does. Stock down nearly 6% today. Just seeing some short covering on thin vol.

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 17:39 | 3196370 King_Julian
King_Julian's picture

I used to short AMZN in the late 90's. A buddy and I looked at it and said "no way this company makes it. It's a $12 stock." It was somewhere around $120 or so at the time. Lost my ass. I still can't find it.

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 17:40 | 3196371 ziggy59
ziggy59's picture

Amazon shares jump after quarterly results
Reuters – 12 minutes ago
Algos are reading profit jump headlines..

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 17:42 | 3196387 youngman
youngman's picture

This is the new Socialist way.....companies with no bet the Libs will into that.....

I wonder if you can buy Amazon short stock on Amazon.........??????

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 17:43 | 3196388 JB10
JB10's picture

No - the algo's sold the stock down 5% on the headline miss. Trader then has to pay up to buy the stock back as he realises numbers were fine.

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 17:45 | 3196392 unwashedmass
unwashedmass's picture

this might be it. they are reaming the shorts tonight, but tomorrow? I don't know a portfolio manager on the planet --- even the dumbest ones -- that are going to be able to justify holding AMZN, or god forbid, buying more.....

we might be seeing the final greater fools tonight. I say it closes tomorrow under 250

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 17:45 | 3196394 pragmatic hobo
pragmatic hobo's picture

wait! ... the AMZN misses, guides lower, and stock goes higher? Huh?

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 17:45 | 3196395 max2205
max2205's picture

This thread sounds like a yahoo board. 


Tue, 01/29/2013 - 18:32 | 3196398 JuliaS
JuliaS's picture

AAPL - expectations matched, lots of cash = 40% crash.

NFLX - profits vanish, earnings drain = 60% gain.

Should've seen this coming.

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 17:47 | 3196401 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

All shorts must die before the next major fleecing of the 401k holders.  Banks profitting on the way up and down. 

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 17:47 | 3196407 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Seems like gold and oil will have to get beat back down soon.

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 17:48 | 3196408 razorthin
razorthin's picture

Still think this market isn't in a bubble?

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 17:51 | 3196418 JuliaS
JuliaS's picture

This bubble isn't a market.

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 17:54 | 3196426 khakuda
khakuda's picture

It's not enough.  We need more QE.

Bernanke thinks banks are being too strict giving out credit.  He thinks interest rates, particularly mortgage rates are too high.  He thinks house values are too low.  He thinks stock prices are too low.  He thinks unemployment is too high.  I'm sure he thinks student loans should be cheaper and more readily available.  

It's a good thing HE is smarter than the entire market since HE has control over the printing press.  We will all be saved.

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 17:54 | 3196430 TrustWho
TrustWho's picture

All of you are just thinking too deeply. All you do is pick the right line in the P&L

Amazon shares rallied 10% to $287 following the company’s report that fourth-quarter operating income — considered a key measure of business performance — came in at $405 million, compared with $260 million a year ago.

From 22(?) year old market analyst... Carla Mozee is a reporter for MarketWatch, based in Los Angeles

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 18:11 | 3196491 tecno242
tecno242's picture

Target has a Market cap that is 1/4th of AMZN's.. yet they produced 3 billion in Net income available to common last year.

400 million ain't shit for a company valued at 130 billion dollars.

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 18:27 | 3196552 TrustWho
TrustWho's picture

Ye of little imagination and faith in the new economy supported by Daddy Bernanke and QE4eVa. President Obama wants a FAIR world and this is it. Making money requires paying taxes!

Brick physical structures are so old school and yesterday economics!

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 17:55 | 3196433 unwashedmass
unwashedmass's picture


i don't know about you all, but i find this all terrifying. when this all collapses, its going to be hellfire.

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 17:59 | 3196448 Rearranging Dec...
Rearranging Deckchairs's picture

I guess they're going to make it up on volume. /sarc

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 18:01 | 3196453 Rob Jones
Rob Jones's picture

AAPL is dead. Long live AMZN!

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 18:03 | 3196459 donkshover
donkshover's picture

I got on anti depressants  and counseling today... THIS IS WHY!

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 18:02 | 3196460 azengrcat
azengrcat's picture

Didn't you hear?  They hired an accountanting firm that specializes in charities.  

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 18:03 | 3196465 yogibear
yogibear's picture

Bad is good, good is even better.

LOL, It's a pile on strategy until the big money pulls out leaving the bagholders to get crushed.

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 18:05 | 3196472 NeedleDickTheBu...
NeedleDickTheBugFucker's picture

Imagine what level AMZN shares would be trading at if Henry Blodget was still on the sellside.

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 18:08 | 3196480 Seasmoke
Seasmoke's picture

and sales tax charges coming soon  !!!!!!

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 18:13 | 3196500 Simit Patel
Simit Patel's picture

i'll take the contrarian view in this thread. amzn is the real winner of the internet and this will be proven over the next 5 years. the lackluster earnings is due to investment in scalability and other product lines, and while this is usually a bad idea when other companies try it, amzn is the one player who can pull it off. those who dismiss amzn as a low margin company that is perpetually breakeven don't see the massive digital revenue streams that are already in the making. amazon web services will be a billion dollar business easily. 

jobs/apple was the warmup act. bezos/amazon is the real deal. 

a good piece of the move has occurred, but still not too late. hop on and enjoy the ride! :)

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 18:31 | 3196567 Squid Vicious
Squid Vicious's picture

you realize the mkt cap is currently $130 billion? so if web services is a "billion dollar business" whatever that means, then we still still need to account for a few more billion?

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 20:35 | 3197033 Simit Patel
Simit Patel's picture

my viewpoint is that amazon's market cap will reach 250 bn over the next 5 years. they moving their business model to high margin digital revenue -- kindle, AWS, marketplace, payments -- and they are absolutely killing it if you judge it on a business model basis. they are reinvesting all the profits into growth which is why the numbers are lackluster. amzn has a committed shareholder base and there is no apple-esque mania. 

a billion dollar business is one that does a billion in revenue a year. AWS will grow well beyond that. margins will be higher than in retail. and this is just one aspect of amazon's business. google did 29 billion in revenue and has a market cap 2X that of amzn --- and growing. amazon's growth trajectory and the inflationary storm that can lift all equities make amzn one of my favorite plays. 

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 19:17 | 3196736 Wilcat Dafoe
Wilcat Dafoe's picture

I agree, basically.   Some of these people seem to lose the forest for the most recent tree....

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 19:57 | 3196884 eclectic syncretist
eclectic syncretist's picture

Bezos will never turn a profit with AMZN.  He's just not that kind of guy.

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 20:41 | 3197050 Simit Patel
Simit Patel's picture

amazon had an EPS of $2.53 in 2010. the next time they turn up the profits, that number will be much bigger. 

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 20:27 | 3197005 adr
adr's picture

Amazon is the Russian Mafia owned black market dealer in the shady part of town. Some guys you know went there and scored a great deal on a 50" projection set. Paid like $200. But you're afraid because you know it's illegal. Problem is the law says if you buy stolen goods, you're just as guilty as the guy that sold them to you.


I'm pretty sure the Feds know Amazon sells black market merchandise, but they don't care because Bezos probably floats them all stock. But buyer beware. That 50" Plasma you bought for $500 on Amazon that sells for $1500 at Best Buy wasn't bought through legitimate channels.

I mean if you're fine buying a TV stolen off a cargo ship, more power to you. But don't for one second believe Amazon is a legitimate seller of retail merchandise. Amazon's dirtier than a $10 Albanian whore.

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 20:43 | 3197054 Simit Patel
Simit Patel's picture

do you have anything resembling proof to support your comment here?

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 18:16 | 3196504 graneros
graneros's picture


Tue, 01/29/2013 - 18:14 | 3196507 Darth Mul
Darth Mul's picture

The figures that analysts come up with for their expectations are not unlike the number a young boy expects when he first puts ruler to schlong:   Not much basis for whatever they came up with to begin with, and almost certainly bound for disappointment.

And remember, boys, that sometimes the prettiest girl at the dance, is really just the least revolting.

Has anyone seen on a kindle?  It's like being deep inside a Tokyo makutsu ...which is, itself, deep inside a girls' high school.  

Marvelous stuff - and I can easily buy random shit inbetween tugs.  What's not to love?

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 18:18 | 3196521 donkshover
donkshover's picture

Dont let them drive you away Simit. This board needs some intelligence lately.

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 18:18 | 3196522 Dr_Lucid
Dr_Lucid's picture

So going forward we are buying when the news is bad, but not as bad as we thought? 

I used to own a high end sporting goods retail store 5 years ago and have since moved it purely online so I can keep the wholesale accounts for myself ( and my friends).  I could never in a million years compete with Amazon efficiency and pricing.  But the rub is that when some local calls who needs more help in product selection than what he can find online asks,

"...why don't you guys have a retail store?"

I tell them, "... we do, we do in fact and its in the plaza on Route 1 right next to the Amazon store.  You know the one with the fancy storefont that you built brick by brick?  And its ok if you don't know where it is, its easy to find since its across the street from the EBAY store."


Tue, 01/29/2013 - 19:00 | 3196669 IamtheREALmario
IamtheREALmario's picture

Actually price is managed so buying and selling depends on what the price managers do with the price. They generally cover their price manipulation with implausable stories propagated through the complicitand corrupt media and sell-side community.

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 18:29 | 3196556 Bear
Bear's picture

What 88,400 Amazon employees do?

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 19:00 | 3196671 IamtheREALmario
IamtheREALmario's picture

I am guessing most unpack and pack boxes in one of their various warehouses.

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 19:04 | 3196563 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

Amazon's lower sales wouldn't have anything to do with employment and the economy still being in the shitter, would it?

Or, with California forcing them to charge sales tax?  I mean, higher taxes don't change people's behavior, does it?


I'm sure $1 Billion a month of FED purchases of approved economist's books from Amazon will help fix their results and the economy.

Break a window!

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 18:31 | 3196565 drivenZ
drivenZ's picture

as long as the capex is growth and not maintenance then the FCF doesn't matter much right now. Operating margins are up, Revenues are up. net income is overrated. 

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 18:39 | 3196585 Squid Vicious
Squid Vicious's picture

Of course revenues are up, the 800 lb gorilla in the room is that their revenue growth rate is slowing rather dramatically ... which will not support the current valuation, only question is when this sinks in

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 18:52 | 3196641 drivenZ
drivenZ's picture

i dont think anyone's modeling out 30% growth every year to infinity. 23% in one quarter does not a trend make. will have to wait and see if the capex spend translates to stablisation or increasing revenue growth. 

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 19:57 | 3196885 Squid Vicious
Squid Vicious's picture

22% growth last q, 20% or so in 1Q 2013 based on today's guidance ... the law of large numbers is a bitch... see AAPL

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 18:36 | 3196575 css1971
css1971's picture

Do NOT. Fuck with Amazon.


They have powerful friends.


Tue, 01/29/2013 - 18:37 | 3196580 markar
markar's picture

Tyler I suspect if you analyzed who owns this stock and in what percentages you'd have your answer as to why it trades in the twilight zone.

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 18:39 | 3196586 venturen
venturen's picture

Maybe they could annouces their number in Zimbabwe dollar or Japanese yen to make the number seem bigger... Or Big Ben could buy their products with printed money and stock pile the good just like MBS.

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 18:40 | 3196587 hardcleareye
hardcleareye's picture

Well with headlines like this......

"Amazon Rises After Reporting Widening North American Margin"

I had to go through and compare ZH take to Bloomberg...

I just don't know what to say..... other than we are soooo screwed...

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 18:40 | 3196590 electricgorilla
electricgorilla's picture

so amazon was down like 3% but then close at like 5%. Some odd 1 second price change before close. Then it fell down tough to like 250 before rallying to the 280's area. Somebody is wiping out alot of positions. We go lower from her starting tmrw. This may have marked the end of the Amazon bubble in my opinion. Will see.

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 18:50 | 3196632 Dr_Lucid
Dr_Lucid's picture

Good point.  I've noticed the same pattern on a few other names.  Just look at a 5 day chart to catch the lower lows, yet nobody seems to talk abou them.

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 19:00 | 3196660 Aurora Ex Machina
Aurora Ex Machina's picture

Anyone surprised by this news should do the following:

1) Quit & retire to a nice island.

2) Take up Philosophy, starting with Plato's Cave.


That is all.

I've repeatedly told you why AMZN cannot fail (do a GREP); all you have to learn is that this isn't about economics any more.


It's about the future. Quite a dynamic and resilient company, it has proven, no?

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 19:15 | 3196724 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

"Magical Mystery Tour"


Full album, thanks for that, listening now.

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!