Another Day, Another 5 Year High (Except For Trannies)

Tyler Durden's picture

The Dow Transports broke its 10-day streak with a very marginal down day today but the Dow Industrials and the S&P 500 all pushed on miraculously running stops and pushing higher. While VIX remains decoupled the two markets traded in a correlated fashion to get the ramp going early and along with Treasury weakness risk-on was well supported. Risk-assets in general are becoming more systemically correlated as USD weakness and oil strength also contemporaneously pulled stocks to highs (led by energy on the week). The afternoon saw VIX decouple from stock's strength and also on the day overall, credit markets were not following along. Volume was above average with some larger block size up near the highs. FX markets reconverged (JPY weakness and GBP strength) to more systemic USD moves as the 10Y tested up near 2.000% but closed just below it. Gold and Silver rose continued their gains from yesterday midday. In general it appears risk is recoupled ahead of tomorrow's FOMC - apart from HY and VIX which appears more hedged.


The Dow Transports ended its winning streak at 10 days - managing to gain over 21% in the last few weeks and crush realized vol to almost all-time lows... the last time this happened...


VIX and stocks moved together early on but as the afternoon progressed so protection was bid...


And while HY and IG rallied trend-wise, they opened with a considerably greater bid for protection than stocks...


FX markets re-converged around the USD move on the week - though SEK appears notably strong...


The algos were in charge today as cross-asset-class correlations were exceptionally high...


Source: Bloomberg and Capital Context

Capital Context (@CapitalContext) LLC is the leader in integrating credit-market data to actively trade equity markets. From our world-renowned intraday 'CONTEXT' and 'SPY Arb' models to the daily long-short equity portfolio, sector-weight updates and tactical asset-allocation strategies, Capital Context offers sophisticated hedge-fund strategies to the active trading community.


Bonus Chart: Is This Really Another Year of Deja Vu?

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thismarketisrigged's picture

dont worry, amzn misses on earnings per share, revenue, and guidance, yet its stock is up 15 dollars after hours. cant make this shit up

asteroids's picture

I like AMZN as a company, but when the stock market continues to go up on illogical reasons, the top is near. Just remember 1999 folks.

bobthehorse's picture

I called my poor old mother.

I asked her if there was any hope.

She threatened to kick me in the nuts.

Sudden Debt's picture

the quest for logic and technicals....

it's like watching that old movie doctor Zhivago...
you start watching... and 2 hours later you wonder WTF the movie is about!!
And 4 hours later you realize you blacked out 20 times and need to see the movie at new because you lost the entire storyline!
And after you saw it 10 times YOU STILL HAVE NO CLUE!

DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Ha ha!

And I thought I was the only one who could never WTF Dr. Zhivago was all about!

Orly's picture

It was about a beautiful Egyptian looking good in the snow.


EclecticParrot's picture

For lengthy fare with more substance, next time try Tarkovsky's "Andrei Rublev" or Bela Tarr's "Satantango."  

mspgrandi's picture

the question is ... can the market remain unrationale longer than i go bankrupt?

JeremyWS's picture

NASDAQ new Tranny? lagging highs significantly and lets be honest IT is more important than railroads in modern day USA. Anyone agree?

lasvegaspersona's picture

I've never followed Trannies before but was made aware the the Baltic Dry Index was very low a little over a year ago. I was told that meant the movement of goods across the oceans was down and therefore the global economy sucked. Are we to believe that the Dow Trans going up is a leading index and that buyers believe all is (going to be) well?

DoChenRollingBearing's picture

The Baltic Dry Index is a useful (but only a part) measure of movement of bulk goods (ore, corn, cement, iron ore, etc.) global transportation.  But, it does not measure other important compenents such as ocean shipping container rates nor airfreight, etc.  Still, the Index is one I look at from time to time.

Tracking the Baltic Dry Index:

enter ticker "$bdi"

yogibear's picture

Good luck on the Bernanke and the Federal Reserve Banksters trying to get suckers from anywhere to buy US debt. 

Evans, Bernanke , Dudley and Yellen, have at it PhD numbskulls and buy all the US treasuries you want because you will be the only one buying!


ironmace's picture

I was looking for high trannies.

Sutton's picture

End of month run up.

Then we lay into the bitch.

l1b3rty's picture

So...this is what normalcy feels like?

market up.

housing moving up.

metals depressed.

DowTheorist's picture

We shouldn't underestimate the power and duration of a primary bull market. Be it driven by liquidity or sound fundamentals.

Two slightly different Dow theory flavors are in agreement as to the existence of a primary bull market.

Thus, while the stock market is vulnerable to a secondary reaction, the odds favor higher prices during the months ahead, not lower prices.

EclecticParrot's picture

Not coincidentally, my dentist and barber are also in agreement, but I suspect by late May they'll be cursing their AAPL and BA holdings, and burning Cramer in effigy (who, when toasted over a moderate flame, bears a remarkable resemblance to Bart Simpson).

1eyedman's picture

i bought a refurb'd refridgerator afew dasy ago and the guy was really looking forward to getting his real estate lic, he'd like to build a portfolio of rentals, but flip the first few so he can buy more.   south florida btw.   


no one is immediately bearish.  not even on this site.   the sweet sweet lullaby, the sirens song has put all into slumber.   no one wants to fight the fed.   but even the fed knows that a 10% correction can be 'healthy'.   give some people a chance to buy from the broker dealer accts, or rather, participate in this rally.    no end of month window dressing comments?  

jse111's picture

Agreed and what percentage of the Zero Hedge brain trust faithful missed the entire 119% up move in the S&P since the 03/02/2009 low? I know, Armageddon is directly ahead and he who laughs last laughs best.

Well folks do not hold your breath waiting for first available opportunity to yuk it up! Stop being a contra-indicator and perform independent fundamental analysis with the passion that consistently is displayed at hating everything that does not fit your paranoid/schizoid vision of the US!

119% up ... Bitchezs


Bear's picture

Fundamentals .... They point up?

BinAround's picture

The vulgarity of some of the comments is boring, uninformed and idiodic.  For the retards who constantly write "bitches" or "bitchez", do you think it is amusing? If not amusing then intelligent?  If not intelligent then what??? Why not stick your head up your bitchez ass and give the rest of us a break from your wisdom?