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Case-Shiller Home Price Index Posts Second Consecutive Monthly Decline, Average Home Prices Back To Fall 2003 Levels

Tyler Durden's picture


The Case-Shiller Home Price Index is unique among other economic data indicators for recommending that analysts focus solely on its Non-seasonal adjusted data series, as this is what the report uses in its own headline figures. It adds that "for analytical purposes, S&P Dow Jones Indices publishes a seasonally adjusted data set covered in the headline indices" - a far cry from the BLS, whose Arima X 12 models are the basis of the data "moves" on a monthly basis: moves which are based not so much in the underlying data but on the seasonal adjustment and fudging the government employees apply to it. And it is the unadjusted Case Shiller data that showed that in November, the 20 City Composite index posted its second consecutive monthly price decline in a row. Yes: on a year over year basis home prices did rise some 5.5%, but on the other hand, "average home prices across the United States are back to their autumn 2003 levels for both the 10-City and 20-City Composites." And while the price decline into the year end is somewhat seasonal, it certainly does not fit with all the other economic data released by the government showing a housing picture so bright not even the tiniest drops in prices were allowed.

And in what is the biggest paradox for homebuyers in New York, Case Shiller reported that of the 20 cities tracked, home prices rose everywhere... except New York, yet oddly enough it is in NY that the uber-wealthy from China and Russia come to park their money and buy any $50 million + available duplex, triplex and quadruplex regardless of price, and where the bubble at the ultra expensive end of the market is raging like never before (not to mention the record December Hamptons real estate prices).

Perhaps just as importantly, the bubble is back in the west:

In the 12 months ended in November, prices rose in 19 of the 20 cities and fell in New York. In 19 cities prices rose faster in the 12 months to November than in the 12 months to October; Cleveland prices rose at the same pace in both time periods. Phoenix led with the fastest price rise – up 22.8% in 12 months as it posted its seventh consecutive month of double-digit annual returns.

Keeping it real, Vegas - the biggest housing bubble pop in history, saw home prices rise 10% Y/Y, while Detroit was up 11.9%. One word (Un)sustainable.

But maybe this time it is different.


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Tue, 01/29/2013 - 10:35 | 3194648 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

BLOW you crazy maniacal monetizing bubble blowers BLOOOWWWW!!!

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 10:42 | 3194662 Enslavethechild...
EnslavethechildrenforBen's picture

Blowing away like an old ghost town, real estate prices will drop as gasoline rises and folks are not able to afford to live outside of Dodge

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 10:47 | 3194694 camaro68ss
camaro68ss's picture

Well i guess recovery winter was a bust, theres always spring.

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 11:08 | 3194762 mightycluck
mightycluck's picture

I found this guy's explanation of the CS numbers. He is often on Faux News and CNBC, but he is always less cheerleading and more anti-Fed.


Tue, 01/29/2013 - 15:23 | 3195775 fourchan
fourchan's picture

they dont mention that the avererage brick 3 bedroom in detroit with 100x40 yard, that was up 11% costs 15,000$

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 10:53 | 3194701 BLOTTO
BLOTTO's picture

But yet, if you're part of the masses... you read this on the illuminati controlled MSM:


Home prices see best yearly gain since 2006


NEW YORK (Reuters) - Single-family home prices rose in November, *** building on a string of gains that point to a housing market that is on the mend***, data from a closely watched survey showed on Tuesday.

*** building on a string of gains that point to a housing market that is on the mend***




=head trip



Tue, 01/29/2013 - 12:37 | 3195118 rotagen
rotagen's picture

When folks like me can no longer "afford to live OUTSIDE OF DODGE"  look out, because we're reaching for our illegalized guns and aiming for DC.  Living in the sterilized, butt-ugly, postage-stamp lawned generic human crapland called the "suburbs" will do that to ya.

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 13:03 | 3195196 donsluck
donsluck's picture

I believe the suburbs would be considered "outside of Dodge". Maybe you should move INTO Dodge and stay ahead of the curve, get closer to work, see your kids more, become less angry, etc.

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 15:50 | 3195907 NuYawkFrankie
NuYawkFrankie's picture

Before its over, there'll be many living IN a Dodge... a Dodge Pickup.

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 13:09 | 3195207 bentaxle
bentaxle's picture

They're tryin,' they're tryin,'


"Signalling the continued! recovery of the {U.S.} housing market......"

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 10:36 | 3194655 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture


Tue, 01/29/2013 - 10:41 | 3194657 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

Store Sales are following their linear-regression quite well for the past year http://bloomberg.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=455555&cust=bloomberg-us&year=2013&lid=0&prev=/byweek.asp#top

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 10:40 | 3194664 kridkrid
kridkrid's picture

If you look at a century long trend line, it still has another 15-20% to go... and that is minus a total economic collapse, which is still to come. Gravity is such a bitch.

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 10:40 | 3194666 Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

Strange .Faux News reported a 5% increase in house values.

Seems you can fool most of the sheeples most of the time.

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 10:40 | 3194672 Glass Seagull
Glass Seagull's picture

Thanks Ben for making American consumers numb to 27% credit card APRs, yet hypersensitive to 30-year mortgage rate DV01s.

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 10:42 | 3194677 I am more equal...
I am more equal than others's picture

Phoenix led with the fastest price rise – up 22.8% in 12 months as it posted its seventh consecutive month of double-digit annual returns.

Make bubbles is fun for a child.  Phoenix must be filled with children.  As Bob Seger sang...."blow me away...won't you blow me away tonight..." 

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 10:46 | 3194689 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

Phoenix is a prefect symbol of our new reality - watery abundance from a desert.

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 10:42 | 3194679 digalert
digalert's picture

Taking bets here!

Who wants to wager the S&P closes today +/- 0.15% from 1500? Bonus for 1500 even.

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 10:44 | 3194685 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

That graph is amazing from Jan 2009 forward. Like a magic trick.

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 10:53 | 3194708 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

Almost as magical as the SPX chart from '09 lows.

Don't question illusions, just accept them as fact. http://www.bloomberg.com/video/will-stocks-hit-a-record-high-in-2013-5JYNdtEUS62GgZChc7oggg.html

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 11:08 | 3194763 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

If technology can produce fake boobs, why can't it produce fake voices? Fingernails on a chalkboard.

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 10:46 | 3194692 BandGap
BandGap's picture



Tue, 01/29/2013 - 10:58 | 3194726 Colonel Klink
Colonel Klink's picture


Fixed it for you.

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 10:48 | 3194695 ReptilianSlaveMaster
ReptilianSlaveMaster's picture

This article was useless, just BTFD and dont bother doing anything else

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 10:49 | 3194699 yogibear
yogibear's picture

It's time for the Wall Street whores and clowns to appear on CNBS and Boomberg to spin it.

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 10:52 | 3194712 donpaulo
donpaulo's picture

meanwhile BNN is reporting home prices are up



Tue, 01/29/2013 - 10:54 | 3194714 thismarketisrigged
thismarketisrigged's picture

this stuff does not mean a thing. no data does, as long as the printing machine is in full force, this market will never absord bad news.


its sickening really

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 10:55 | 3194716 put_peter
put_peter's picture

In Case-Shiller err... FED... err... God... we trust!

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 10:55 | 3194717 Colonel Klink
Colonel Klink's picture

In the words of Scooby doo, RUT ROH!

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 10:58 | 3194727 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

House prices up an average of 11.9% in Detroit? So what's that like a thousand bucks?

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 11:03 | 3194741 Seasmoke
Seasmoke's picture

Nope. $11.90

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 11:00 | 3194729 Inthemix96
Inthemix96's picture

Completely off topic but worth it for laugh value alone.

Got a phone call this morning off my mate (England 5 hours in front of East coast) asking to pick him up from the nick.  When I picked him up he explained what he got nicked for, he was waiting for the bus this morning when a local council gestapo unit pulled up in front of the bus stop where he was having a tab.

Now this bus stop is a pole with a board tacked to the top of it, not a shelter, and as he was having a tab the gestapo unit said he was in violation of anti-smoking laws and was now going to be fined.  He said fair play, but seeing as he is standing in the fucking fresh air he decided to give the gestapo bloke something worthy of being fined for so he gave said gestapo man a fucking hiding.

Not just fined but done for assault and breach of the peace.  I dont think I have laughed as hard for fucking ages.  Give it time folk, people have had enough.  And to top it off the gestapo unit was crying like a stuck pig (My mates no soft cunt).

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 11:29 | 3194864 Meat Hammer
Meat Hammer's picture

A "hiding"?  Please explain.  My laugh is on hold and I want to let it out!

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 11:30 | 3194870 Inthemix96
Inthemix96's picture

Slapped him about a bit Meat.

Sorry about that, gets lost in translation I suppose.


Tue, 01/29/2013 - 12:14 | 3195006 Lendo
Lendo's picture

LOL great story.

Your friend definitely has principals; he doesn't hit women, he slaps them.

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 10:59 | 3194730 Seasmoke
Seasmoke's picture

Still need to get back down to 1996.

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 11:12 | 3194744 Aurora Ex Machina
Aurora Ex Machina's picture

Looks like it proves that Banks have used bailout cash to pump the housing market. 4 spikes, 4 QE periods.


Hmm ~ I'd love to see the UK version.



Those looking for graph porn can find the FHFA report for 2012 here [warning PDF]. Pages 6, 8 and 9 are pretty interesting (esp. page 9).

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 11:07 | 3194761 Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

Just wait til 5-10 years and the millenial worker class a) has no money to get loans to b) buy homes.

And as political pundits and politicians try to scramble to "figure" out why (incomes), its going to be hysterical.

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 11:10 | 3194771 the not so migh...
the not so mighty maximiza's picture

I am waitng for those 1903 levels before jumping back into buying a home.


Tue, 01/29/2013 - 11:16 | 3194802 adr
adr's picture

The HyperLux market going crazy allows the average to skew to the upside. Considering how many homes are stuck in the shadow inventory also clouds the real picture. In Detroit and Cleveland, there aren't many $500 homes for sale anymore to drag down the average price. The speculators are driving the sale price for boarded up ghetto homes to the moon. I see ghetto sales in Cleveland averaging $20k for homes that were set to be bulldozed. I'm sure the Fed buying $85 billion in mortgages a month has nothing to do with that.

Just like every other economic datapoint over the last four years the wealthy and the welfare set make a mockery of statistics. The all important truth of the situation is obscured by bullshit.

What about prices for middle class homes? Still dropping like a rock because there are no buyers. There aren't many homes for sale either, because people can't sell. If and when they are forced to, it becomes a short sale. My house has lost 20% in the last year. My parent's home was appraised in 2009 at $279k and was just reappraised at $209k.

The uber-wealthy are buying everything. Hampton Mansions for them, ghetto homes to rent to the masses. Every Jew wants to b a slumlord like Potter. Got to herd the cattle somehow. That isn't being anti semitic, that's the truth.

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 18:25 | 3196547 MisterMousePotato
MisterMousePotato's picture

Read an explanation for that (specific case had to do with a lawyer in Memphis, iirc, buying boarded up ghetto crap). Lawyer buys this crap. Somehow makes it livable enough to bus in a Section 8 family from whereever. Profit.

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 11:20 | 3194826 Meat Hammer
Meat Hammer's picture

My plan is to ride this next bubble, sell my house before it pops, rent a house while the real-estate market falls off the cliff again, then buy about 10 duplexes and retire.

Yep..........that's my plan.  I'm sure nothing could go wrong.

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 11:25 | 3194845 PaperBear
PaperBear's picture

The non-recovery recovery continues.

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 11:47 | 3194886 CheapBastard
CheapBastard's picture

More empty houses with no For Sale sign out is what I see even in Dallas and all over Houston now. yet builders are cranking out new boxes as fast as they can and handing zero down ( and almost zero down) loans out like Candy and passing on bad loans to the FHA.

House prices will continue to sink and sadly, the quality of these newly built wood boxes will not last for as long as that 30 year mortgage, I'm afraid.

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 11:42 | 3194915 MIDTOWN
MIDTOWN's picture

There are no appraisers signing off on 11.9% increases.  This is smoke and mirrors having to do with the number of bank owned sales in the statistical group.

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 12:32 | 3195083 otto skorzeny
otto skorzeny's picture

neighbor down the street keeps trying to refi-blames the same appraiser that keeps coming out,giving him a fairly realistic appraisal, and the neighbor is in complete denial that his house is really worth jack-shit. of course that didn't stop him from buying $75K worth of vehicles last year

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 12:35 | 3195105 odatruf
odatruf's picture

Exactly right. I've had two appraisals done in the past two months. One commercial and one residential. In both cases they've come in much lower than the standard ROI models for the area would predict based on their rents and leases.


But, the number of income properties in the area (northern New England, USA) on the market has dropped to almost zero with the exception of the ones that have been listed for at least a year.


Tue, 01/29/2013 - 11:55 | 3194948 Lucius Corneliu...
Lucius Cornelius Sulla's picture

Wait until the USG refuses to back FNM, FRE and FHA loans.  It is going to happen eventually (out of desperation). Only then will we have real price discovery.

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 12:31 | 3195088 otto skorzeny
otto skorzeny's picture

that's when the fun begins

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 12:51 | 3195170 Hober Mallow
Hober Mallow's picture

I'm getting a bit fed-up with your negativism ZH

Twisting this positive piece of news into a negative one is a tad too much.

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