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Consumer Confidence Crashes To 2011 Levels After Biggest Plunge Since August 2011 Debt Ceiling Debacle
It would appear that the hike in taxes on 77% of Americans that was heralded as a success, has dented confidence just a little. As the efficient stock market moves to all-time nominal highs in many cases, Consumer Confidence just fell off a cliff. The conference board printed at the worst level in 13 months - so all those 2012 gains are gone - and fell month-over-month by the most since the August 2011 fiscal cliff debacle. For every income levels (except those earning under $15k) confidence plunged with the $35k-$50k bracket crashing the most. It would appear that the driver of 70% of the US economy is not buying the new normal being fed to us daily by any and every media outlet possible. No matter how much the market is held up by mysterious runs in FX markets or volatility compression, it would appear that - just as we have been noting - the underlying macro fundamentals will eventually be priced in, as this does not bode well for retail sales.
Worst print in 13 months, biggest drop in 17 months...
Perhaps it is time for some reality-reversion...
and the other reality...
Chart: Bloomberg
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This is not the hope you are looking for.
Bush's fault
Can't be - he's too old and maybe still in the hospital, I think.
O'Bongonomics, it's bitchin'!
I just keep looking at the thousand points of light. The new world order - future's so bright, I gotta wear shades.
NWO-Ministry
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NIzyoKsWTA4
Ministry +1
Election is over...
So is the country.
Confidence fell on it's ass when they stopped handing out those Obama phones after the election. Wait until they cut off the free minutes, all hell will break.
if only there wasn't a 2d amendment...
And we need amnesty too. We better hurry to outnumber those people with guns who are reaching the end of their collective tethers. It might also be a good idea to replace the armed forces with queers and drones, the new Praetorian Guard.
Yugoslavia reincarnated.
I'm confident were screwed.
I like the s&p peaks from '11 and '12 to today. I'm confident I can check how straight my ruler is with those peaks. How many days of not being able to punch through resistance before the bulls lose their confidence as well? I'm curious to see.
> than whatever it ends up being.
That divergence in the second graph may be due to the 1 month lag in reporting for consumer confidence. I'm going to throw out a wild guess that it will "rebound sharply" when they report it around this time next month, which will be yet another "cause celebre" for an either further extension of the rally.
Keep in mind, bad data is good (moar QE), and good data is good (moar QE anyways). $85 billion a month/1.02 trillion a year is what the shorts are facing here. Sure, there may be some short term, possibly severe drops intrayear, but the stock market is nominally priced. The real economy doesn't fucking matter for stock (or bond, or MBS, or [fill in the blank]) prices.
I'm waiting for gas prices to catch up to nominal pricing.. nice breakout in UGA and BNO going on right now... should make for a surprisingly strong retail sales number soon.. and besides we don't need confidence any more we have BB to make us safe.
"Consumer confidence" , LOL. "she said she was a magic mama, and she could throw a mean Tarot" "but, I got a creestal Ball ! ~ Frank Zappa
In this market, translation = buy everything!!!
Who needs consumer confidence when you have Bob Pisani #CNBC
Exactly. "The important thing is ______________." Presto. After waking up depressed about his unemployment and food stamp situation, Average Joe simply fills in the blank with some mention of equity price action...and everything is just fine.
The BlowHorn [CNBC] should hire MOAR trained parrots so that we can get to that DOW 20,000 shangrala even moar quickly.
don't worry, retail sales will beat as always due to some "unexpected" reason
Unicorns shitting skittles.
The dynamic duo is Bob Piss-on-me and Steve Lies-man.
and Maria at 4pm telling us we're off our lows.
fuck em'
You got to love Maria's always reliable bull/bull/bull debate into the close.
Even the most negative news some how sounds positive when these guys are done.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZzlgJ-SfKYE
Somehow just seems to fit ...
My confidence has only been rising.
It's over.
Isn't it amazing how retail sales stay elevated? Gotta love the rich getting richer and spending it on exquisite consumption. One of these years, that’ll trickle down to the 99%’ers.
I am not so sure its the imaginary "rich" who are keeping this up.. would be nice to see the chart of consumer credit card debt overimposed on that to get some more clarity.. anyone paid attention to how WMT sales have been?
The disconnect between consumer confidence and retail sales since 2009 is due to channel stuffing. The reported numbers aren't real. That is what you get when there are no prosecutions for fraud and mark to fantasy accounting is encouraged.
Every publicly traded retailer has been counting shipped product as sold, artificially propping up the numbers. It is impossible to have true sales growth in this environment, yet retailers keep claiming comparable increases. I know for a fact that less inventory in being bought, so how can you increase sales? Only by increasing the level of accounting fraud.
The practice does end due to the fact that operating cash eventually runs out. This is what I am seeing now. Retailers actually don't have any cash to purchase the inventory to channel stuff. The big guys are hit with it first, due to the immense overhead. Then the smaller mall stores get hit. Zumiez will blow up very soon, there are no customers in that chain, not enough to justify its valuation. Lulu has a fanatical base but their channel stuffing has been epic, to the tune of GM epic. It is impossible to do the business they claim out of 189 stores. There is not enough available foot traffic for $100 Yoga pants to match the claimed revenue. Lulu must keep opening new stores to increase channel stuffed accounting sales. If they can't open new stores, reported sales will plummet.
I may not know a lot about stock trading, but I know a lot about business. Sadly the two have completely divorced. There isn't a single word uttered on CNBC that could be considered business talk. The skin of the apple is nice and shiny, but I am living on the inside, like the worm crawling around in the rotten innards. Sad to know the truth really, it would be really nice to believe CNBC and live in LALA land like the rest of the retards.
It is no longer LALA land it is LULU land; where you stuff 300 lbs of tubby US lardass into a $500 spandex jumper worth $2.
Guns and ammo driving retail?
I am confident that I'm Jack's complete lack of surprise...
Ignore the peasants! Moar QEasing Moar debt! Moar free phones....oh look still some football left. Back to the couches and consume Moar fatty goodness...your healthcare awaits you!
Speaking of confidence,
I am more than confident that the politicians dont know what is going on or what to do about it, and I am equally confident that the central banks will still print and look after their own, as I am still confident that they are digging a fucking hole that we the people will have to resolve.
And at this level of confidence, I can give you cast-iron guarantee we will end up more fucked by the in-bred cunts next month as the one before it.
Cunts.
I'm confident Bernanke's a fucking shit eating asshole.
Brother L im confident u r correct and that i will be visiting my Silver dude later this morning...
keep doin what u do man...scream it from the mountain tops....
I'm confident our entire global economy is dependent upon imaginary value. And that imaginary value is being systematically diluted to zero.
Don't you mean "revealed" to be zero? How much gold did the Germans get when they asked for theirs back from the Fed? What are all those tanks protecting in Fort Knox, the gold, or the revelation that there ain't none there? Can the truth be told anywhere anymore?
What's the matter with all these Debbie Downers?
Don't just the knowledge that all this money is being printed (and handed to the trustworthy people of JPMorgan) bring joy to these ungrateful individuals?
Pay no attention, Moochelle's new hairdo is just lovely isn't it? Just ask Brian Williams.
No worries, the algos will push the market higher.
retail sales up as the consumer buying guns and ammo food and pm's
on the ground reporting(AS OF YESTERDAY): ammo shelves near bare, gun counter crowded and pm is a i don't know, but reports are that record amounts being sold and treasury minting on back log, but alas is this a january effect-NOT...
OKAY! WHO LOST CONFIDENCE!! RAISE YOUR HANDS!!!
I KNOW YOU'RE OUT THERE!!
COME ON! RAISE YOUR HANDS OR EVERYBODY WON'T GET ANY FOODSTAMPS THIS MONTH LET ALONE A NEW PHONE!!
...and access to "Gangnam Style" will be restricted.
whiskey sales up along with toilet paper!
who needs confidence when you got almost 50 million on food stamps and the dollar....
DOW 14,000...................
disclaimer: all stock muppets assume the crash position...
The non-recovery recovery continues.
Here is the laugher headline of the day (as only CNBC could concoct):
"Wall Street to DC: Cut Deficit & Spending Now"
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/wall-street-dc-cut-deficit-131113157.html
-----------------
excerpt:
"Wall Street is sending a sharp and unambiguous message to Washington: cut spending and solve the deficit problem now and don't do it with more revenue."
-----------------
This is beyond a joke. Wall Street whoremongers have THRIVED on Fed easing and deficit spending.
Beyond FUBAR.
Huge, gargantuan, Sun-eclipsing BALLS.
Same tactic used when some PhD Economist claims to believe inflation statistics actually UNDER-STATE the "true" rate based on some quasi-plausible yet unintelligible gibberish. The economically ignorant just tune out the whole debate. I believe that's called "poisoning the well". Bastards.
aaaand the sell off of .2% lasted 15 minutes
Way to go Ben. Markets are almost at new highs and you still haven't raised animal spirits. Obviously the answer is more QE.
Retail sales will soar...gasoline is rippin higher again...see? Fixed!
nailed it!
super bullish
Death by nickels, death by dimes.
US Postal cost increase is a killer too. Over 6% up for international shipments ?! They need to nationalize the post office!
Oh, wait.......
Wasn't one of the featured stories here calling for nationalized banks the other day?
Man, I am so confused.
Well, when I see "nationalize the banks", I would rather interpret that as, "burning the banks to the ground."
it worked well for amtrak!
sum 1 has 2 pay for those empty trains.
Bubble Bernanke and fed's solution is always to print. Devalue and print going forward.
Eventually that $32,000 car costs $62,000 and the muppets will need to take out a 10 year loan.
Bernanke and the banksters want more debt slaves.
"Bernanke and the banksters want more debt slaves."
----------
Yes, because they pay interest, and that is money for nothing to a bankster.
Irrelevant. For the last time, there is no market.
A more accurate measure of retail would forget about retail sales and measure retail vacancy rates (excluding space occupied by "WE BUY GOLD" stores and pawn shops)
@Midtown - fully agree and it is a number that gets reported in the UK (unsure if it is an official number - but it gets mentioned nevertheless). A walk down most high streets in UK and on the continent gives a clear indication of the general lack of cash.
Strong retail sales are from all the guns being bought like crazy
because of the low consumer confidence.
So it all makes sense now
The DOW is almost at 14,000......why are people NOT confident?
I can tell you why: it's because unlike our punditocracy and the political class in Washington, the majoity of Americans work in real life and understand that the end of the road is full of broken glass and nails, and NOT gold.
Income down, benefits down, prices up.....all while people in the MSM keep saying, "EVERYTHING IS OK!!!!!1111 EVERYTHING IS OK!!!!111"
I really can't wait for this thing to crash and burn, just so I can stick my schadenfreude up both the Establishment Left+Right's ignorant asses.
TV/Media and Hollywood are so evil. Pull the plug.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KKn_ucvHoRM&feature=player_embedded
this tradition thing is getting out hand....
Why are central banks buying gold, the opposite of their own creation, paper money?
http://www.groenewegenreport.com/
"....especially for that reason investors should be warned considering the fact that more and more central banks are buying gold the opposite of their own creation: paper money. This is so contrarian. It is like the butcher who doesn’t want to eat his own sausages because he knows what is in it. Why would central banks buy gold, which “limits” their creation of credit? The answer is: the fear of lost credibility of paper money, because of the constant undermining, dilution, debasement of their currencies with quantitative easing measures not sorting the desired effect of sustained economic growth because we have passed the tipping point whereby the overwhelming debt levels (Debt/GDP > 77-90%) have started to depress economic growth."
Exch. Stabilization Fund @ work again, this time countering real low Cons. Confid. number!!
Keep stackin' !!
Fools, swimming in an ocean of propaganda, voting their ignorance.
Retail sales being lifted / divergent by pre-inflation stock-piling? I won't use the "H" word.
BTFD? What FD? Ridiculous.
I buy because I'm scared...
I'm scared because I buy...
"Catch 22"
i love that consumer confidence vs retail sales chart !!! it explains so well how people consume without any reason nor money LOL
how stupid can we be ?
We need more reports, more data, more QE, more DOW, more S&P, more think tanks, more Bob Pasani's, more Maria's...Ministry of Propaganda (MiniTruth)
When consumers no longer invest in the market, consumer confidence doesn't matter. Fed (i mean big banks) continues to buy stocks today
consumer confidence worst print since 2011, schillers housing forecast index down= dow inching closer and closer to 14000 and s&p close to 1505 level.
data is completely ignored in this market,
fuck u all bankers, wall st, and fuck u obama u douchebag
Rally! All news is good news now thanks to Benny and Co. Must mean more QE is needed!
This is why the DOW is at 14,000.
Obamacare, Obama's regulatory insanity to appease unions and environmentalists. And our real owners and Obama's best friend the Chinese Communists.
Nice to know that on a day when consumer confidence is collapsing, along with the Case/Shiller real estate index, Wall St, assisted by Fed devalued Dollars, is so much more confident in our economic future today versus yesterday. After all, stocks are HIGHER than they were yesterday!
Bears Have To Admit - Durable Goods YoY% Look Strong
http://chartistfriendfrompittsburgh.blogspot.com/2013/01/bears-have-to-admit-durable-goods-yoy.html
My second exwife hates the word "cunt" .... especially when I remind her she is one ?
I think the over-use of the word displays a 'profound absence of sophistication'.
Please leave your marital problems on the other side of your keyboard, M.
Cunts !
What about the confidence of business owners? It's probably even lower.
confidence - (con-fi-dence) n. the quality or state of being certain : "Have confidence while you BTFD lemmings."
cuntfidence -- (cunt-fi-dence) n. an appealing but ultimately empty sandwich; cf. "cuntfidence game," in which the separation of one and one's assets is rectumfied....
If Confidence levels are down...then Bernak and his coterie of smirking jackals must print more...obviously...I ean what else is there to do?
Retail...schmeetail....Unemployment numbers on friday....of course will be bullish because if they are up...it's all working and Bernake (Obama) are geniuses....if they are down....then we must print more because think of all the pain and hunger out there.
Just wait until investors climb out of boinds and into equiites.....thats what CNBC tells us...
There is no down there is only up ! Why fight the power?
http://youtu.be/zDAmPIq29ro
That's the problem with Sheeple.
+10pts FOR S&P ON STAT... IT MUST HAVE BEEN A BULLISH BEAT I GUESS??... ROBOT CHASING STOPS AND MARKET MANIPULATION BY THE BIG GUYS AT ITS FULLEST...
Your shouting adds nothing to your lame post.
Here is why I am less confident. Bob Shiller on housing.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=psy8RAXiwKM
Is there a 3X consumer confidence volatility index ETF somewhere out there...?
/sarc