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Consumer Confidence Crashes To 2011 Levels After Biggest Plunge Since August 2011 Debt Ceiling Debacle

Tyler Durden's picture


It would appear that the hike in taxes on 77% of Americans that was heralded as a success, has dented confidence just a little. As the efficient stock market moves to all-time nominal highs in many cases, Consumer Confidence just fell off a cliff. The conference board printed at the worst level in 13 months - so all those 2012 gains are gone - and fell month-over-month by the most since the August 2011 fiscal cliff debacle. For every income levels (except those earning under $15k) confidence plunged with the $35k-$50k bracket crashing the most. It would appear that the driver of 70% of the US economy is not buying the new normal being fed to us daily by any and every media outlet possible. No matter how much the market is held up by mysterious runs in FX markets or volatility compression, it would appear that - just as we have been noting - the underlying macro fundamentals will eventually be priced in, as this does not bode well for retail sales.

Worst print in 13 months, biggest drop in 17 months...


Perhaps it is time for some reality-reversion...


and the other reality...


Chart: Bloomberg

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Tue, 01/29/2013 - 11:14 | 3194786 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

This is not the hope you are looking for.

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 11:17 | 3194800 TotalCarp
TotalCarp's picture

Bush's fault

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 11:30 | 3194871 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

Can't be - he's too old and maybe still in the hospital, I think.

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 12:29 | 3195075 kralizec
kralizec's picture

O'Bongonomics, it's bitchin'!

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 12:36 | 3195115 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

I just keep looking at the thousand points of light. The new world order - future's so bright, I gotta wear shades.

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 13:18 | 3195247 economics9698
Tue, 01/29/2013 - 13:47 | 3195346 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

Ministry +1

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 11:20 | 3194815 mr1963
mr1963's picture

Election is over...

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 13:15 | 3195228 economics9698
economics9698's picture

So is the country.

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 14:36 | 3195546 FMR Bankster
FMR Bankster's picture

Confidence fell on it's ass when they stopped handing out those Obama phones after the election. Wait until they cut off the free minutes, all hell will break.

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 11:22 | 3194833 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

if only there wasn't a 2d amendment...

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 13:09 | 3195208 Clark Bent
Clark Bent's picture

And we need amnesty too. We better hurry to outnumber those people with guns who are reaching the end of their collective tethers. It might also be a good idea to replace the armed forces with queers and drones, the new Praetorian Guard. 

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 13:19 | 3195245 economics9698
economics9698's picture

Yugoslavia reincarnated.

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 11:24 | 3194846 MassDecep
MassDecep's picture

I'm confident were screwed.

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 11:50 | 3194939 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

I like the s&p peaks from '11 and '12 to today. I'm confident I can check how straight my ruler is with those peaks. How many days of not being able to punch through resistance before the bulls lose their confidence as well? I'm curious to see. 

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 14:26 | 3195494 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

> than whatever it ends up being.

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 11:52 | 3194946 Panafrican Funk...
Panafrican Funktron Robot's picture

That divergence in the second graph may be due to the 1 month lag in reporting for consumer confidence.  I'm going to throw out a wild guess that it will "rebound sharply" when they report it around this time next month, which will be yet another "cause celebre" for an either further extension of the rally.

Keep in mind, bad data is good (moar QE), and good data is good (moar QE anyways).  $85 billion a month/1.02 trillion a year is what the shorts are facing here.  Sure, there may be some short term, possibly severe drops intrayear, but the stock market is nominally priced.  The real economy doesn't fucking matter for stock (or bond, or MBS, or [fill in the blank]) prices.  

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 12:12 | 3195018 scatterbrains
scatterbrains's picture

I'm waiting for gas prices to catch up to nominal pricing..  nice breakout in UGA and BNO going on right now... should make for a surprisingly strong retail sales number soon..  and besides we don't need confidence any more we have BB to make us safe.

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 12:41 | 3195142 rotagen
rotagen's picture

"Consumer confidence" , LOL.  "she said she was a magic mama, and she could throw a mean Tarot"  "but, I got a creestal Ball ! ~ Frank Zappa

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 11:15 | 3194789 ilovemilken
ilovemilken's picture

In this market, translation = buy everything!!!

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 11:14 | 3194791 StoleYourMoney
StoleYourMoney's picture

Who needs consumer confidence when you have Bob Pisani 

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 11:19 | 3194814 Cdad
Cdad's picture

Exactly.  "The important thing is ______________."  Presto.  After waking up depressed about his unemployment and food stamp situation, Average Joe simply fills in the blank with some mention of equity price action...and everything is just fine.

The BlowHorn [CNBC] should hire MOAR trained parrots so that we can get to that DOW 20,000 shangrala even moar quickly.

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 11:21 | 3194827 spastic_colon
spastic_colon's picture

don't worry, retail sales will beat as always due to some "unexpected" reason

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 12:09 | 3195005 Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

don't worry, retail sales will beat as always due to some "unexpected" reason

Unicorns shitting skittles.

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 11:37 | 3194900 Hippocratic Oaf
Hippocratic Oaf's picture

The dynamic duo is Bob Piss-on-me and Steve Lies-man.

and Maria at 4pm telling us we're off our lows.

fuck em'

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 11:42 | 3194911 Cdad
Cdad's picture

You got to love Maria's always reliable bull/bull/bull debate into the close.

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 11:52 | 3194944 StoleYourMoney
StoleYourMoney's picture

Even the most negative news some how sounds positive when these guys are done.

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 12:08 | 3195001 Being Free
Being Free's picture


Somehow just seems to fit ...

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 11:16 | 3194792 JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

My confidence has only been rising.

It's over.

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 11:16 | 3194793 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

Isn't it amazing how retail sales stay elevated?  Gotta love the rich getting richer and spending it on exquisite consumption.  One of these years, that’ll trickle down to the 99%’ers.

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 11:20 | 3194818 TotalCarp
TotalCarp's picture

I am not so sure its the imaginary "rich" who are keeping this up.. would be nice to see the chart of consumer credit card debt overimposed on that to get some more clarity.. anyone paid attention to how WMT sales have been? 

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 12:38 | 3195120 adr
adr's picture

The disconnect between consumer confidence and retail sales since 2009 is due to channel stuffing. The reported numbers aren't real. That is what you get when there are no prosecutions for fraud and mark to fantasy accounting is encouraged. 

Every publicly traded retailer has been counting shipped product as sold, artificially propping up the numbers. It is impossible to have true sales growth in this environment, yet retailers keep claiming comparable increases. I know for a fact that less inventory in being bought, so how can you increase sales? Only by increasing the level of accounting fraud.

The practice does end due to the fact that operating cash eventually runs out. This is what I am seeing now. Retailers actually don't have any cash to purchase the inventory to channel stuff. The big guys are hit with it first, due to the immense overhead. Then the smaller mall stores get hit. Zumiez will blow up very soon, there are no customers in that chain, not enough to justify its valuation. Lulu has a fanatical base but their channel stuffing has been epic, to the tune of GM epic. It is impossible to do the business they claim out of 189 stores. There is not enough available foot traffic for $100 Yoga pants to match the claimed revenue. Lulu must keep opening new stores to increase channel stuffed accounting sales. If they can't open new stores, reported sales will plummet.

I may not know a lot about stock trading, but I know a lot about business. Sadly the two have completely divorced. There isn't a single word uttered on CNBC that could be considered business talk. The skin of the apple is nice and shiny, but I am living on the inside, like the worm crawling around in the rotten innards. Sad to know the truth really, it would be really nice to believe CNBC and live in LALA land like the rest of the retards.

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 14:34 | 3195534 Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

It is no longer LALA land it is LULU land; where you stuff 300 lbs of tubby US lardass into a $500 spandex jumper worth $2.

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 13:14 | 3195226 Clark Bent
Clark Bent's picture

Guns and ammo driving retail? 

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 11:19 | 3194803 The Phu
The Phu's picture

I am confident that I'm Jack's complete lack of surprise...

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 11:17 | 3194804 papaswamp
papaswamp's picture

Ignore the peasants! Moar QEasing Moar debt! Moar free phones....oh look still some football left. Back to the couches and consume Moar fatty goodness...your healthcare awaits you!

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 11:17 | 3194805 Inthemix96
Inthemix96's picture

Speaking of confidence,

I am more than confident that the politicians dont know what is going on or what to do about it, and I am equally confident that the central banks will still print and look after their own, as I am still confident that they are digging a fucking hole that we the people will have to resolve.

And at this level of confidence, I can give you cast-iron guarantee we will end up more fucked by the in-bred cunts next month as the one before it.


Tue, 01/29/2013 - 11:18 | 3194806 LongSoupLine
LongSoupLine's picture

I'm confident Bernanke's a fucking shit eating asshole.

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 11:26 | 3194843 Kaiser Sousa
Kaiser Sousa's picture

Brother L im confident u r correct and that i will be visiting my Silver dude later this morning...

keep doin what u do man...scream it from the mountain tops....

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 12:25 | 3195054 eclectic syncretist
eclectic syncretist's picture

I'm confident our entire global economy is dependent upon imaginary value.  And that imaginary value is being systematically diluted to zero.

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 13:18 | 3195243 Clark Bent
Clark Bent's picture

Don't you mean "revealed" to be zero? How much gold did the Germans get when they asked for theirs back from the Fed? What are all those tanks protecting in Fort Knox, the gold, or the revelation that there ain't none there? Can the truth be told anywhere anymore? 

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 11:19 | 3194811 EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

What's the matter with all these Debbie Downers?

Don't just the knowledge that all this money is being printed (and handed to the trustworthy people of JPMorgan) bring joy to these ungrateful individuals?

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 11:20 | 3194817 foodstampbarry
foodstampbarry's picture

Pay no attention, Moochelle's new hairdo is just lovely isn't it? Just ask Brian Williams.

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 11:19 | 3194819 Biggieshort
Biggieshort's picture

No worries, the algos will push the market higher. 



Tue, 01/29/2013 - 11:20 | 3194823 caimen garou
caimen garou's picture

retail sales up as the consumer buying guns and ammo food and pm's

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 11:43 | 3194921 new game
new game's picture

on the ground reporting(AS OF YESTERDAY): ammo shelves near bare, gun counter crowded and pm is a i don't know, but reports are that record amounts being sold and treasury minting on back log, but alas is this a january effect-NOT...

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 11:21 | 3194824 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture




Tue, 01/29/2013 - 11:31 | 3194868 EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

...and access to "Gangnam Style" will be restricted.

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 11:22 | 3194825 caimen garou
caimen garou's picture

whiskey sales up along with toilet paper! 

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 11:23 | 3194831 Kaiser Sousa
Kaiser Sousa's picture

who needs confidence when you got almost 50 million on food stamps and the dollar....

DOW 14,000...................


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