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Consumer Confidence Crashes To 2011 Levels After Biggest Plunge Since August 2011 Debt Ceiling Debacle

Tyler Durden's picture




 

It would appear that the hike in taxes on 77% of Americans that was heralded as a success, has dented confidence just a little. As the efficient stock market moves to all-time nominal highs in many cases, Consumer Confidence just fell off a cliff. The conference board printed at the worst level in 13 months - so all those 2012 gains are gone - and fell month-over-month by the most since the August 2011 fiscal cliff debacle. For every income levels (except those earning under $15k) confidence plunged with the $35k-$50k bracket crashing the most. It would appear that the driver of 70% of the US economy is not buying the new normal being fed to us daily by any and every media outlet possible. No matter how much the market is held up by mysterious runs in FX markets or volatility compression, it would appear that - just as we have been noting - the underlying macro fundamentals will eventually be priced in, as this does not bode well for retail sales.

Worst print in 13 months, biggest drop in 17 months...

 

Perhaps it is time for some reality-reversion...

 

and the other reality...

 

Chart: Bloomberg

 

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Tue, 01/29/2013 - 11:14 | 3194786 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

This is not the hope you are looking for.

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 11:17 | 3194800 TotalCarp
TotalCarp's picture

Bush's fault

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 11:30 | 3194871 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

Can't be - he's too old and maybe still in the hospital, I think.

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 12:29 | 3195075 kralizec
kralizec's picture

O'Bongonomics, it's bitchin'!

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 12:36 | 3195115 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

I just keep looking at the thousand points of light. The new world order - future's so bright, I gotta wear shades.

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 13:18 | 3195247 economics9698
Tue, 01/29/2013 - 13:47 | 3195346 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

Ministry +1

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 11:20 | 3194815 mr1963
mr1963's picture

Election is over...

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 13:15 | 3195228 economics9698
economics9698's picture

So is the country.

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 14:36 | 3195546 FMR Bankster
FMR Bankster's picture

Confidence fell on it's ass when they stopped handing out those Obama phones after the election. Wait until they cut off the free minutes, all hell will break.

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 11:22 | 3194833 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

if only there wasn't a 2d amendment...

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 13:09 | 3195208 Clark Bent
Clark Bent's picture

And we need amnesty too. We better hurry to outnumber those people with guns who are reaching the end of their collective tethers. It might also be a good idea to replace the armed forces with queers and drones, the new Praetorian Guard. 

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 13:19 | 3195245 economics9698
economics9698's picture

Yugoslavia reincarnated.

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 11:24 | 3194846 MassDecep
MassDecep's picture

I'm confident were screwed.

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 11:50 | 3194939 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

I like the s&p peaks from '11 and '12 to today. I'm confident I can check how straight my ruler is with those peaks. How many days of not being able to punch through resistance before the bulls lose their confidence as well? I'm curious to see. 

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 14:26 | 3195494 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

> than whatever it ends up being.

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 11:52 | 3194946 Panafrican Funk...
Panafrican Funktron Robot's picture

That divergence in the second graph may be due to the 1 month lag in reporting for consumer confidence.  I'm going to throw out a wild guess that it will "rebound sharply" when they report it around this time next month, which will be yet another "cause celebre" for an either further extension of the rally.

Keep in mind, bad data is good (moar QE), and good data is good (moar QE anyways).  $85 billion a month/1.02 trillion a year is what the shorts are facing here.  Sure, there may be some short term, possibly severe drops intrayear, but the stock market is nominally priced.  The real economy doesn't fucking matter for stock (or bond, or MBS, or [fill in the blank]) prices.  

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 12:12 | 3195018 scatterbrains
scatterbrains's picture

I'm waiting for gas prices to catch up to nominal pricing..  nice breakout in UGA and BNO going on right now... should make for a surprisingly strong retail sales number soon..  and besides we don't need confidence any more we have BB to make us safe.

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 12:41 | 3195142 rotagen
rotagen's picture

"Consumer confidence" , LOL.  "she said she was a magic mama, and she could throw a mean Tarot"  "but, I got a creestal Ball ! ~ Frank Zappa

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 11:15 | 3194789 ilovemilken
ilovemilken's picture

In this market, translation = buy everything!!!

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 11:14 | 3194791 StoleYourMoney
StoleYourMoney's picture

Who needs consumer confidence when you have Bob Pisani 

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 11:19 | 3194814 Cdad
Cdad's picture

Exactly.  "The important thing is ______________."  Presto.  After waking up depressed about his unemployment and food stamp situation, Average Joe simply fills in the blank with some mention of equity price action...and everything is just fine.

The BlowHorn [CNBC] should hire MOAR trained parrots so that we can get to that DOW 20,000 shangrala even moar quickly.

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 11:21 | 3194827 spastic_colon
spastic_colon's picture

don't worry, retail sales will beat as always due to some "unexpected" reason

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 12:09 | 3195005 Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

don't worry, retail sales will beat as always due to some "unexpected" reason

Unicorns shitting skittles.

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 11:37 | 3194900 Hippocratic Oaf
Hippocratic Oaf's picture

The dynamic duo is Bob Piss-on-me and Steve Lies-man.

and Maria at 4pm telling us we're off our lows.

fuck em'

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 11:42 | 3194911 Cdad
Cdad's picture

You got to love Maria's always reliable bull/bull/bull debate into the close.

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 11:52 | 3194944 StoleYourMoney
StoleYourMoney's picture

Even the most negative news some how sounds positive when these guys are done.

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 12:08 | 3195001 Being Free
Being Free's picture

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZzlgJ-SfKYE

Somehow just seems to fit ...

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 11:16 | 3194792 JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

My confidence has only been rising.

It's over.

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 11:16 | 3194793 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

Isn't it amazing how retail sales stay elevated?  Gotta love the rich getting richer and spending it on exquisite consumption.  One of these years, that’ll trickle down to the 99%’ers.

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 11:20 | 3194818 TotalCarp
TotalCarp's picture

I am not so sure its the imaginary "rich" who are keeping this up.. would be nice to see the chart of consumer credit card debt overimposed on that to get some more clarity.. anyone paid attention to how WMT sales have been? 

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 12:38 | 3195120 adr
adr's picture

The disconnect between consumer confidence and retail sales since 2009 is due to channel stuffing. The reported numbers aren't real. That is what you get when there are no prosecutions for fraud and mark to fantasy accounting is encouraged. 

Every publicly traded retailer has been counting shipped product as sold, artificially propping up the numbers. It is impossible to have true sales growth in this environment, yet retailers keep claiming comparable increases. I know for a fact that less inventory in being bought, so how can you increase sales? Only by increasing the level of accounting fraud.

The practice does end due to the fact that operating cash eventually runs out. This is what I am seeing now. Retailers actually don't have any cash to purchase the inventory to channel stuff. The big guys are hit with it first, due to the immense overhead. Then the smaller mall stores get hit. Zumiez will blow up very soon, there are no customers in that chain, not enough to justify its valuation. Lulu has a fanatical base but their channel stuffing has been epic, to the tune of GM epic. It is impossible to do the business they claim out of 189 stores. There is not enough available foot traffic for $100 Yoga pants to match the claimed revenue. Lulu must keep opening new stores to increase channel stuffed accounting sales. If they can't open new stores, reported sales will plummet.

I may not know a lot about stock trading, but I know a lot about business. Sadly the two have completely divorced. There isn't a single word uttered on CNBC that could be considered business talk. The skin of the apple is nice and shiny, but I am living on the inside, like the worm crawling around in the rotten innards. Sad to know the truth really, it would be really nice to believe CNBC and live in LALA land like the rest of the retards.

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 14:34 | 3195534 Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

It is no longer LALA land it is LULU land; where you stuff 300 lbs of tubby US lardass into a $500 spandex jumper worth $2.

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 13:14 | 3195226 Clark Bent
Clark Bent's picture

Guns and ammo driving retail? 

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 11:19 | 3194803 The Phu
The Phu's picture

I am confident that I'm Jack's complete lack of surprise...

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 11:17 | 3194804 papaswamp
papaswamp's picture

Ignore the peasants! Moar QEasing Moar debt! Moar free phones....oh look still some football left. Back to the couches and consume Moar fatty goodness...your healthcare awaits you!

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 11:17 | 3194805 Inthemix96
Inthemix96's picture

Speaking of confidence,

I am more than confident that the politicians dont know what is going on or what to do about it, and I am equally confident that the central banks will still print and look after their own, as I am still confident that they are digging a fucking hole that we the people will have to resolve.

And at this level of confidence, I can give you cast-iron guarantee we will end up more fucked by the in-bred cunts next month as the one before it.

Cunts.

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 11:18 | 3194806 LongSoupLine
LongSoupLine's picture

I'm confident Bernanke's a fucking shit eating asshole.

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 11:26 | 3194843 Kaiser Sousa
Kaiser Sousa's picture

Brother L im confident u r correct and that i will be visiting my Silver dude later this morning...

keep doin what u do man...scream it from the mountain tops....

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 12:25 | 3195054 eclectic syncretist
eclectic syncretist's picture

I'm confident our entire global economy is dependent upon imaginary value.  And that imaginary value is being systematically diluted to zero.

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 13:18 | 3195243 Clark Bent
Clark Bent's picture

Don't you mean "revealed" to be zero? How much gold did the Germans get when they asked for theirs back from the Fed? What are all those tanks protecting in Fort Knox, the gold, or the revelation that there ain't none there? Can the truth be told anywhere anymore? 

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 11:19 | 3194811 EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

What's the matter with all these Debbie Downers?

Don't just the knowledge that all this money is being printed (and handed to the trustworthy people of JPMorgan) bring joy to these ungrateful individuals?

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 11:20 | 3194817 foodstampbarry
foodstampbarry's picture

Pay no attention, Moochelle's new hairdo is just lovely isn't it? Just ask Brian Williams.

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 11:19 | 3194819 Biggieshort
Biggieshort's picture

No worries, the algos will push the market higher. 

 

 

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 11:20 | 3194823 caimen garou
caimen garou's picture

retail sales up as the consumer buying guns and ammo food and pm's

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 11:43 | 3194921 new game
new game's picture

on the ground reporting(AS OF YESTERDAY): ammo shelves near bare, gun counter crowded and pm is a i don't know, but reports are that record amounts being sold and treasury minting on back log, but alas is this a january effect-NOT...

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 11:21 | 3194824 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

OKAY! WHO LOST CONFIDENCE!! RAISE YOUR HANDS!!!

I KNOW YOU'RE OUT THERE!!

COME ON! RAISE YOUR HANDS OR EVERYBODY WON'T GET ANY FOODSTAMPS THIS MONTH LET ALONE A NEW PHONE!!

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 11:31 | 3194868 EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

...and access to "Gangnam Style" will be restricted.

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 11:22 | 3194825 caimen garou
caimen garou's picture

whiskey sales up along with toilet paper! 

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 11:23 | 3194831 Kaiser Sousa
Kaiser Sousa's picture

who needs confidence when you got almost 50 million on food stamps and the dollar....

DOW 14,000...................

 

disclaimer: all stock muppets assume the crash position...

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 11:25 | 3194838 PaperBear
PaperBear's picture

The non-recovery recovery continues.

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 12:11 | 3194841 John Law Lives
John Law Lives's picture

Here is the laugher headline of the day (as only CNBC could concoct):

"Wall Street to DC: Cut Deficit & Spending Now"

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/wall-street-dc-cut-deficit-131113157.html

-----------------

excerpt:

"Wall Street is sending a sharp and unambiguous message to Washington: cut spending and solve the deficit problem now and don't do it with more revenue."

-----------------

 

This is beyond a joke.  Wall Street whoremongers have THRIVED on Fed easing and deficit spending.

Beyond FUBAR.

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 13:46 | 3195338 Liquid Courage
Liquid Courage's picture

Huge, gargantuan, Sun-eclipsing BALLS.

Same tactic used when some PhD Economist claims to believe inflation statistics actually UNDER-STATE the "true" rate based on some quasi-plausible yet unintelligible gibberish. The economically ignorant just tune out the whole debate. I believe that's called "poisoning the well". Bastards.

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 11:24 | 3194842 vote_libertaria...
vote_libertarian_party's picture

aaaand the sell off of .2% lasted 15 minutes

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 11:29 | 3194855 dwdollar
dwdollar's picture

Way to go Ben. Markets are almost at new highs and you still haven't raised animal spirits. Obviously the answer is more QE.

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 11:28 | 3194858 PUD
PUD's picture

Retail sales will soar...gasoline is rippin higher again...see? Fixed!

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 11:32 | 3194877 spastic_colon
spastic_colon's picture

nailed it!

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 11:27 | 3194860 PontifexMaximus
PontifexMaximus's picture

super bullish

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 11:29 | 3194866 The Gooch
The Gooch's picture

Death by nickels, death by dimes.

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 11:31 | 3194873 CheapBastard
CheapBastard's picture

US Postal cost increase is a killer too. Over 6% up for international shipments ?!  They need to nationalize the post office!

 

Oh, wait.......

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 11:33 | 3194880 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

Wasn't one of the featured stories here calling for nationalized banks the other day?

Man, I am so confused.

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 11:39 | 3194902 Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

Well, when I see "nationalize the banks", I would rather interpret that as, "burning the banks to the ground."

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 13:01 | 3195192 Common_Cents22
Common_Cents22's picture

it worked well for amtrak!

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 13:26 | 3195273 Never One Roach
Never One Roach's picture

sum 1 has 2 pay for those empty trains.

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 11:34 | 3194882 yogibear
yogibear's picture

Bubble Bernanke and fed's solution is always to print. Devalue and print going forward.

Eventually that $32,000 car costs $62,000 and the muppets will need to take out a 10 year loan.

Bernanke and the banksters want more debt slaves.

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 11:35 | 3194892 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

"Bernanke and the banksters want more debt slaves."

----------

Yes, because they pay interest, and that is money for nothing to a bankster.

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 11:34 | 3194887 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Irrelevant.  For the last time, there is no market.

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 11:37 | 3194895 MIDTOWN
MIDTOWN's picture

A more accurate measure of retail would forget about retail sales and measure retail vacancy rates (excluding space occupied by "WE BUY GOLD" stores and pawn shops)

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 11:51 | 3194943 Bankrupt from B...
Bankrupt from Belgium's picture

@Midtown - fully agree and it is a number that gets reported in the UK (unsure if it is an official number - but it gets mentioned nevertheless).  A walk down most high streets in UK and on the continent gives a clear indication of the general lack of cash.

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 11:39 | 3194897 Headbanger
Headbanger's picture

Strong retail sales are from all the guns being bought like crazy

because of the low consumer confidence.  

 

So it all makes sense now

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 11:38 | 3194898 Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

The DOW is almost at 14,000......why are people NOT confident?

I can tell you why: it's because unlike our punditocracy and the political class in Washington, the majoity of Americans work in real life and understand that the end of the road is full of broken glass and nails, and NOT gold.

Income down, benefits down, prices up.....all while people in the MSM keep saying, "EVERYTHING IS OK!!!!!1111 EVERYTHING IS OK!!!!111"

I really can't wait for this thing to crash and burn, just so I can stick my schadenfreude up both the Establishment Left+Right's ignorant asses.

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 11:54 | 3194950 Freddie
Freddie's picture

TV/Media and Hollywood are so evil.  Pull the plug. 

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 11:58 | 3194969 Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture
HOLLYWOOD FILMS SECRETLY DICTATED BY THE CIA- SteveTalks.tv

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KKn_ucvHoRM&feature=player_embedded

 

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 11:41 | 3194912 Kaiser Sousa
Kaiser Sousa's picture

this tradition thing is getting out hand....

Why are central banks buying gold, the opposite of their own creation, paper money?

http://www.groenewegenreport.com/

"....especially for that reason investors should be warned considering the fact that more and more central banks are buying gold the opposite of their own creation: paper money. This is so contrarian. It is like the butcher who doesn’t want to eat his own sausages because he knows what is in it. Why would central banks buy gold, which “limits” their creation of credit? The answer is: the fear of lost credibility of paper money, because of the constant undermining, dilution, debasement of their currencies with quantitative easing measures not sorting the desired effect of sustained economic growth because we have passed the tipping point whereby the overwhelming debt levels (Debt/GDP > 77-90%) have started to depress economic growth."

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 11:44 | 3194923 alfred b.
alfred b.'s picture

 

      Exch. Stabilization Fund @ work again, this time countering real low Cons. Confid. number!!

   Keep stackin'  !!

 

 

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 11:49 | 3194935 janchup
janchup's picture

Fools, swimming in an ocean of propaganda, voting their ignorance.

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 11:55 | 3194955 gaoptimize
gaoptimize's picture

Retail sales being lifted / divergent by pre-inflation stock-piling?  I won't use the "H" word.

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 11:58 | 3194966 SmoothCoolSmoke
SmoothCoolSmoke's picture

BTFD?  What FD?  Ridiculous.

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 11:58 | 3194970 Glass Seagull
Glass Seagull's picture

 

 

I buy because I'm scared...

I'm scared because I buy...

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 13:20 | 3195254 ZeroAvatar
ZeroAvatar's picture

"Catch 22"

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 12:00 | 3194975 Super Broccoli
Super Broccoli's picture

i love that consumer confidence vs retail sales chart !!! it explains so well how people consume without any reason nor money LOL

how stupid can we be ?

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 12:12 | 3195020 Gimp
Gimp's picture

We need more reports, more data, more QE, more DOW, more S&P, more think tanks, more Bob Pasani's, more Maria's...Ministry of Propaganda (MiniTruth)

 

 

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 12:16 | 3195033 nobusiness
nobusiness's picture

When consumers no longer invest in the market, consumer confidence doesn't matter.  Fed (i mean big banks) continues to buy stocks today

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 12:26 | 3195061 thismarketisrigged
thismarketisrigged's picture

consumer confidence worst print since 2011, schillers housing forecast index down= dow inching closer and closer to 14000 and s&p close to 1505 level.

 

data is completely ignored in this market, 

 

fuck u all bankers, wall st, and fuck u obama u douchebag

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 12:28 | 3195067 khakuda
khakuda's picture

Rally!  All news is good news now thanks to Benny and Co.  Must mean more QE is needed!

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 12:34 | 3195104 MFLTucson
MFLTucson's picture

This is why the DOW is at 14,000. 

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 12:35 | 3195110 mightycluck
mightycluck's picture

Obamacare, Obama's regulatory insanity to appease unions and environmentalists. And our real owners and Obama's best friend the Chinese Communists.

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 12:39 | 3195134 sbenard
sbenard's picture

Nice to know that on a day when consumer confidence is collapsing, along with the Case/Shiller real estate index, Wall St, assisted by Fed devalued Dollars, is so much more confident in our economic future today versus yesterday. After all, stocks are HIGHER than they were yesterday!

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 13:05 | 3195198 realtick
Tue, 01/29/2013 - 13:08 | 3195204 Monedas
Monedas's picture

My second exwife hates the word "cunt" .... especially when I remind her she is one ?  

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 13:23 | 3195260 ZeroAvatar
ZeroAvatar's picture

I think the over-use of the word displays a 'profound absence of sophistication'.

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 15:41 | 3195872 Joe moneybags
Joe moneybags's picture

Please leave your marital problems on the other side of your keyboard, M.

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 16:19 | 3196018 Monedas
Monedas's picture

Cunts !

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 02:37 | 3195237 TWSceptic
TWSceptic's picture

What about the confidence of business owners? It's probably even lower.

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 13:38 | 3195315 Its Only Rock N Roll
Its Only Rock N Roll's picture

confidence - (con-fi-dence) n. the quality or state of being certain : "Have confidence while you BTFD lemmings."

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 17:27 | 3196294 Ludwig Van
Ludwig Van's picture

cuntfidence -- (cunt-fi-dence) n. an appealing but ultimately empty sandwich; cf. "cuntfidence game," in which the separation of one and one's assets is rectumfied....

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 13:41 | 3195324 Clowns on Acid
Clowns on Acid's picture

If Confidence levels are down...then Bernak and his coterie of smirking jackals must print more...obviously...I ean what else is there to do?

Retail...schmeetail....Unemployment numbers on friday....of course will be bullish because if they are up...it's all working and Bernake (Obama) are geniuses....if they are down....then we must print more because think of all the pain and hunger out there.

Just wait until investors climb out of boinds and into equiites.....thats what CNBC tells us...

There is no down there is only up ! Why fight the power?

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 14:21 | 3195464 de3de8
de3de8's picture

That's the problem with Sheeple.

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 14:57 | 3195639 lemarche
lemarche's picture

+10pts FOR S&P ON STAT... IT MUST HAVE BEEN A BULLISH BEAT I GUESS??... ROBOT CHASING STOPS AND MARKET MANIPULATION BY THE BIG GUYS AT ITS FULLEST...

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 15:44 | 3195882 Joe moneybags
Joe moneybags's picture

Your shouting adds nothing to your lame post.

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 15:34 | 3195832 mightycluck
mightycluck's picture

Here is why I am less confident. Bob Shiller on housing.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=psy8RAXiwKM

Tue, 01/29/2013 - 17:38 | 3196363 Random_Robert
Random_Robert's picture

Is there a 3X  consumer confidence volatility index ETF somewhere out there...?

 

/sarc

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