Noisy ADP, aka "BLS For Dummies", Beats, Last Month Revised Much Lower

Tyler Durden's picture

ADP may have changed its methodology, wiping out a few hundred thousand 2012 jobs in the process, but its predictive track record remains the same: lousy. In December, the private payroll counter "reported" some 215,000 private job gains, well above expectations and about 50,000 more than the BLS reported two days later. Today, ADP was expected to print far lower, or at 165,000, and once again we got a major beat, this time January data apparently soaring to 192K, yet at the same time the utterly meaningless December data was revised far lower, from 215K to 185K just to be inline with the BLS. Expect this number, too, to be revised lower as it usually tends to be, following a weaker than implied BLS payroll number. Of note: seven consecutive drops in manufacturing jobs: so much for that Obama promise to double manufacturing jobs in 5 years or whatever it was. Judging by the market's non response to today's latest ADP number, we are not the only ones who see Mark Zandi's pet seasonal-adjustment project as nothing more than a monthly joke.

The business size breakdown was as follows:

    Small businesses (1-49 employees) +115,000
    Medium businesses (50-499 employees) +79,000
    Large businesses (500 or more employees) -2,000

Industry Snapshot

    Construction 15,000
    Manufacturing -3,000
    Trade/transportation/utilities 33,000
    Financial activities 12,000
    Professional/business services 40,000

By Sector

    Goods producing 15,000
    Service providing 177,000

Some of the pretty, but meaningless, charts:

And confirming that ADP is now basically BLS for dummies, it actually provides its own infographic. Here is this month's:

Infographic: U.S. Economy Added 215,000 Private-Sector Jobs in December, According to ADP National Employment Report