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Noisy ADP, aka "BLS For Dummies", Beats, Last Month Revised Much Lower

Tyler Durden's picture


ADP may have changed its methodology, wiping out a few hundred thousand 2012 jobs in the process, but its predictive track record remains the same: lousy. In December, the private payroll counter "reported" some 215,000 private job gains, well above expectations and about 50,000 more than the BLS reported two days later. Today, ADP was expected to print far lower, or at 165,000, and once again we got a major beat, this time January data apparently soaring to 192K, yet at the same time the utterly meaningless December data was revised far lower, from 215K to 185K just to be inline with the BLS. Expect this number, too, to be revised lower as it usually tends to be, following a weaker than implied BLS payroll number. Of note: seven consecutive drops in manufacturing jobs: so much for that Obama promise to double manufacturing jobs in 5 years or whatever it was. Judging by the market's non response to today's latest ADP number, we are not the only ones who see Mark Zandi's pet seasonal-adjustment project as nothing more than a monthly joke.

The business size breakdown was as follows:

    Small businesses (1-49 employees) +115,000
    Medium businesses (50-499 employees) +79,000
    Large businesses (500 or more employees) -2,000

Industry Snapshot

    Construction 15,000
    Manufacturing -3,000
    Trade/transportation/utilities 33,000
    Financial activities 12,000
    Professional/business services 40,000

By Sector

    Goods producing 15,000
    Service providing 177,000

Some of the pretty, but meaningless, charts:

And confirming that ADP is now basically BLS for dummies, it actually provides its own infographic. Here is this month's:

Infographic: U.S. Economy Added 215,000 Private-Sector Jobs in December, According to ADP National Employment Report


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Wed, 01/30/2013 - 09:28 | Link to Comment GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture



ADP may have changed its methodology


Who needs rules when you can just wing the crap?

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 09:34 | Link to Comment krispkritter
krispkritter's picture

No need to lie when all you need to do is revise!

Look! Over there! All is well...

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 09:43 | Link to Comment JackT
JackT's picture

Will they revise all of 2012? Lets not forget they get a 2-for-1 with all the companies that have reduced hours for employees due to The Affordable Care Act

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 10:36 | Link to Comment Groundhog Day
Groundhog Day's picture

we can send an unmaned rover millions of miles away on another planet, landing within a 1/2 mile of its intended landing spot, but those damn unemployment numbers are just so hard to calculate

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 09:27 | Link to Comment Silver Garbage Man
Silver Garbage Man's picture

Cnbc just told me that 2.5 million unemployed people are a potential boon to the market when they find jobs! Sounds like all will be okay!

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 09:49 | Link to Comment Downtoolong
Downtoolong's picture

Some people see the glass as 95% empty. Others choose to see at as 5% full.

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 14:14 | Link to Comment ImReady
ImReady's picture

5% full! Bullish!!! 

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 09:28 | Link to Comment Jason T
Jason T's picture

Labor productivity gains were only 0.2% in 2012.. the 3rd lowest since WWII .. 2013 projected to be just .6% .. gonna need to hire more folks but that's gonna hit profits.. so good jobs numbers will be bad for profits and or course stocks.

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 09:42 | Link to Comment azzhatter
azzhatter's picture

More and more part time jobs

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 09:28 | Link to Comment ejmoosa
ejmoosa's picture

Look how good the numbers from last year now look.


Yet they keep saying things are improving, despite evidence to the contrary.


Wed, 01/30/2013 - 09:30 | Link to Comment tradewithdave
tradewithdave's picture

Jim Rickards vs Zerohedge... Pass the popcorn.

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 09:33 | Link to Comment GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture



Are we really gonna argue on who's crap is the best?

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 09:36 | Link to Comment firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

They are dumping UST on this print...oh wait, my montior is upsidedown.  Good thing that GDP number came in above expecations to show all is well in the US.  Oh wait, we're cutting spending on the military?!? 

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 09:32 | Link to Comment EmmittFitzhume
EmmittFitzhume's picture

The only thing that moves this market is $85BN / Mo in new Fed money

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 09:32 | Link to Comment Kaiser Sousa
Kaiser Sousa's picture


we're rolling baby!!!!!!!!

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 09:39 | Link to Comment Obchelli
Obchelli's picture

Now imagine this kind of ADP and Negative GDP print in fair market. Market would be locked limit down. But Hey Honeybadger doesn't care

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 09:33 | Link to Comment fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

cnbc just broke some bad news. now they are talking about how great it is.

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 09:39 | Link to Comment Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

There is no such thing as "bad news" on CNBC.

"Bad news" = "ratings"

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 09:43 | Link to Comment semperfi
semperfi's picture

CNBC - marxist/fascist shitbags

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 09:35 | Link to Comment orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

Lie about it this quarter, revise down next quarter and hope no one notices and that no MSM reports it.


Interestingly enough, the SP500 weekly formation today looks very similar to the one in 2007.

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 09:38 | Link to Comment fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

4th qtr GDP came in negative. this zandi guy is going to hyperventalate. he won't let even Liesman speak. 

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 09:41 | Link to Comment semperfi
semperfi's picture

ADP - why don't you idiots just go do something else, something useful, like cleaning up trash on the freeways

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 09:41 | Link to Comment Obchelli
Obchelli's picture

Now after negative GDP print they (CNBC) are collectively laugh at Santelly... His voice that we are spending over trillion per year... Fot silenced by idots like LIESman and Zandi

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 09:43 | Link to Comment q99x2
q99x2's picture

Hypnotoad me to oblivion. I think I'll have another.

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 09:42 | Link to Comment buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

I don't like the colors they used in their charts.

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 09:44 | Link to Comment Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

That's why the economy didn't grow in Q4.

Some where surprised the economy didn't grow... I wasn't.

Sandy Rock also had something to do with it and it snowed somewhere.


at least we hope... for change... but good change than...

Thank god the FED will print even more!!! MORE FREE MONEY TO BUY GOLD AND SILVER!!!


Wed, 01/30/2013 - 09:44 | Link to Comment azzhatter
azzhatter's picture

but....but.... I saw a commercial that said manufacturing is coming back?

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 09:48 | Link to Comment Sudden Debt
Wed, 01/30/2013 - 09:54 | Link to Comment GeezerGeek
GeezerGeek's picture

The only apparent area where manufacturing is increasing is that wherein bogus economic statistics are manufactured. Obama's credibility depends on them.

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 09:56 | Link to Comment LongSoupLine
LongSoupLine's picture

Fucking assholes at ADP and BLS keep doing the bidding of chief fucking shit eater Obama and Bernanke.

Fuck you both, fucking nothing but political dildos

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 10:06 | Link to Comment madcows
madcows's picture

ADP is useless.  Please don't even report the number anymore as it only serves to cause confusion.

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 10:24 | Link to Comment otto skorzeny
otto skorzeny's picture


Wed, 01/30/2013 - 10:25 | Link to Comment Gimp
Gimp's picture

It's getting better all the time.....

Really look forward to the ADP report and top-notch anaylsis by Zandi and Liesman..don't worry guys you can keep your jobs for another week!

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 11:51 | Link to Comment 1eyedman
1eyedman's picture

probably mostly temp workers....who now will spend earned money instead of credit card debt funding....which is negative b/c they want consumer credit to be higher and higher....spend those future wages today!   it will all work out! just do as you are told

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 12:24 | Link to Comment GNWT
Wed, 01/30/2013 - 13:09 | Link to Comment larz
larz's picture

I think we need an executive order to extend presidential term limits apparently Obama needs a few more years to get past the cluster he inherited from Snatch ... I mean Bush and that inept republican Congress  FOUR MORE YEARS (at least) of Michelle and Barack clap clap clap

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 15:01 | Link to Comment mkhs
mkhs's picture

    Manufacturing -3,000


The graphic says -11,000. 



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