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Shrinkage: US Economy Declined By -0.1% In Q4

Tyler Durden's picture
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/30/2013 09:40 -0400



 

A stunner out of the BEA which just reported a Q4 GDP of -0.1% that was leaps and bounds below the 1.1% estimate, and a plunge from Q3's 3.1%. The factors: Private Inventories, Exports and Government Expenditures all of which contracted, by -1.27%, -0.81%, and -1.33%. The silver lining was in Personal Consumption Expenditures which added 1.52% to the negative print, most of it however driven by a surge in spending ahead of the fiscal cliff. Ironically, this was the biggest government-driven detraction from growth since Q1 2011, when GDP led to a -1.49% cut in the GDP, same in Q4 when government spending on defense fell the most since 1972. The solution is simple: print moar drones. Enter Mali. And since everything is now AMZN-ing, we can't wait for the spin that the GDP's margins were actually better than expected, leading to a 200 point surge in the DJIA.

 
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Wed, 01/30/2013 - 11:07 | 3198747 Winston of Oceania
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Algo's don't manipulate, er I mean trade on fundamentals...

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 11:21 | 3198823 1eyedman
1eyedman's picture

no worries.  'momentum' etc.   they dont want to give up the wetdream that 1576 is.  Or 14000 for that matter.   they really want to hit those at least for a minute so the muppets can board with more confidence, so much confidence that the 4% immediate pullback after end of month window dressing is a 'great' buying opportunity...high-ish volume on a lower high, is muppets boarding, b/ds exiting.  

it may be time again for those great 50 point wed-fri swings.   oh and dont forget the sequester will start March 1.   

at these points in time, people seem to love to pay more (hgiher prices) for less (gdp, earnings, etc).    odd behavior, but people seem to feel better about their haircut/clothes when the spend a lot vs getting a good value.

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 10:53 | 3198681 Cosimo de Medici
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Fresh from last week's Inauguration, President Obama responded to news of the GDP drop by saying, "Well, we inherited a terrible mess".

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 11:01 | 3198723 djsmps
djsmps's picture

CBS This Morning explained the record high stock market to its viewers this morning.

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 11:20 | 3198817 evernewecon
evernewecon's picture

 

 

 

 

Bernanke/Geithner invested vast sums

in the duplicitous mortgage bubble,

including buying assets not at market 

value, instead of in main street.

 

Wait till rates rise.

 

Just underwriting student college 

attendance would be more productive

and less expensive than investing in

bank folly and nothingness in value.

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/video/u-s-housing-in-fragile-recovery-wachter-s...

 

 

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2013/01/the-true-cost-of-the-aig-bailout/?u...(The+Big+Picture)

 

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2013/01/the-true-cost-of-the-aig-bailout/?u...(The+Big+Picture)

 

 

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-12-19/six-month-delinquent-mortgages-...

 

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-01-07/cheap-money-era-that-saved-u-s-...

 

 

http://pages.citebite.com/x8e7h5d8tlyj

 

 

@1:40

http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/daily-ticker/house-prices-nowhere-near-bo...

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 11:32 | 3198860 joego1
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Don't worry they are about to gin up another war. This time it will be much cheaper. They are going to have it in Miami and Houston.

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 11:47 | 3198936 Obama4Ever
Obama4Ever's picture

Double negative.

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 11:57 | 3198978 Clowns on Acid
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GDP = .1%...."What difference does it make?"

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 12:22 | 3199076 StoleYourMoney
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ECRI has been saying it, nobody listened...

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 13:41 | 3199338 Chaos_Theory
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Movie theater ticket booth worker:  "That'll be $7 please"

Eric Cartman:  "And how much is that in pubes?"

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 19:24 | 3200692 Notarocketscientist
Notarocketscientist's picture

Notice how this dreadful result does not appear on most MSM sites.

I guess that would be bad for CONfidence if the dumb fucks hapened to pull their fat fucking faces away from Dancing with Stars and saw such a headline.

Hey honey did you see this - looks like we are fucked!  Oh really, I thought we was recoverin.  Nope. Looks like we're fucked.

 

Thu, 01/31/2013 - 20:55 | 3204610 SKY85hawk
SKY85hawk's picture

You're perpetuating the gummint's numeric falsehood in GDP component change.  Q4 on this chart does total -.17%

  Anyone that remembers high school algebra KNOWS you can’t add individual percentages and get a valid %-change. One must add up the multiple components for Last-month and This-month and then calculate %-change on the Total. 

Do you have the underlying numbers that the gummint used? 

The real GDP change might be even worse, or better!  Investors need accurate numbers.  God knows what other 'errors' are in their 'numbers'.

 

Thu, 01/31/2013 - 20:55 | 3204611 SKY85hawk
SKY85hawk's picture

You're perpetuating the gummint's numeric falsehood in GDP component change.  Q4 on this chart does total -.17%

  Anyone that remembers high school algebra KNOWS you can’t add individual percentages and get a valid %-change. One must add up the multiple components for Last-month and This-month and then calculate %-change on the Total. 

Do you have the underlying numbers that the gummint used? 

The real GDP change might be even worse, or better!  Investors need accurate numbers.  God knows what other 'errors' are in their 'numbers'.

 

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