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US Ends 2012 With 103.8% Debt To GDP

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/30/2013 10:38 -0400

Previously, when calculating debt/GDP metrics for the US, we naturally assumed some GDP growth in Q4. Following today's GDP data we now know what Q4 GDP is. We also know that, at least on a preliminary basis, it posted a decline on an annualized basis. This means that we now have an official print for US Debt/GDP as of December 31, 2012. The numerator, or debt: $16.432 trillion, or the debt ceiling, which as we know was breached on the same day, and which has yet to be formally raised. The denominator, or GDP: $15.829 trillion. This means that the formal debt/GDP is now 103.8% and growing fast.

Indicatively, this has risen from 76.5% on the day of Obama's first inauguaral address.

And for those who, erroneous, allege that Q4 GDP declined due to US government "austerity", here are the facts: in Q4, the US added some $312 billion in debt. And more to the point, the US government spent a grand total of $907.9 billion in the same quarter. This compares to $877.1 billion a quarter earlier: $30 billion less.

Some "Austerity."

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Wed, 01/30/2013 - 10:40 | 3198607 SilverTree

As silver and gold Pop.

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 10:42 | 3198611 Say What Again

Absolutely BULLISH

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 11:14 | 3198785 sotto

Oh yeah, it couldn't get any better. See here: http://economiccollapsenews.com/2013/01/30/u-s-still-headed-toward-econo...

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 11:27 | 3198838 trav777

so at this run rate, what's the total debt delta gonna be under Obama...+12T.

They certainly did stack on new taxes and whatnot, but Bama has already added $6T from 1/20/09 to now. Funny how all this debt was "destroying the economy" when Busch did it, but now it's "saving the economy from the debt that Busch destroyed it with."

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 12:15 | 3199055 economics9698

126% by 2016, but we have a Black Swan event coming soon.

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 12:19 | 3199060 The Juggernaut

...and Krugman wants MORE gov't/Fed (centralized) spending? What the fuck is wrong with this meglomaniac?

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 14:32 | 3199504 SamAdams

Krugman clearly understands the correlation between the debt chart and the djia chart. Both charts point to a very good return for Krugman and the people who do G_d's work....

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 11:19 | 3198812 Sudden Debt

Yep, because every ending is actually also some kind of new begining!

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 11:38 | 3198883 Groundhog Day

MONEY = DEBT, DEBT = MONEY, THEREFORE GROWTH IN DEBT SHOULD EQUATE TO GROWTH IN GDP. GROWTH ALL AROUND, ALL IS WELL.

KRUGMAN

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 11:53 | 3198966 Freddie

Hope & Change. Amerika's stock market reacting like Zimbabwe's did. Oba-MAO is our Mugabe II.

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 10:46 | 3198647 aint no fortuna...

aaaaand cue - equities rally, led of course by AMZN

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 10:55 | 3198697 Say What Again

DOW over 14,000 today.

Then talk about DOW going to 15,000

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 11:10 | 3198763 IridiumRebel

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 11:10 | 3198764 IridiumRebel

then a million!

fuck yeah

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 11:31 | 3198854 Chupacabra-322

OK, so when exactly does the shit hit the fan? Or has it hit already? Perhaps this is just a phase of uncontrollable explosive diarrhea.

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 11:33 | 3198866 IridiumRebel

It does when war(coming soon) between the US/Israel vs Russia/Syria/Iran/China......hope you gotta plan.

http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4338964,00.html

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 14:36 | 3199518 SamAdams

The impending false flag information was hacked by someone in malaysia? and posted on 4chan, before making its rounds, round the world. Not sure they will pull such a deal now that the cat is out of the bag.

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 11:58 | 3198983 unrulian

When they've taken the guns of course

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 12:56 | 3199189 Chupacabra-322

They will get the business end with bullets first. That's my plan.

And, judging by the amount of gun sales lately, that's a lot of The American People's plan.

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 10:48 | 3198649 youngman

As they should...

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 11:46 | 3198932 Stuntgirl

That's the weird bit.

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 10:40 | 3198608 Lohn Jocke

Bullish.

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 10:41 | 3198609 krispkritter

FORWARD!

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 10:42 | 3198621 Temporalist

That chart is going up...the sheeple and momos cheer!

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 10:42 | 3198623 Sudden Debt

Oh... I thought the graph show adults with fulltime jobs...

nevermind...

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 10:46 | 3198641 EscapeKey

More likely, it shows morning show Nielsen TV ratings.

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 10:54 | 3198685 CrimsonAvenger

Or GBs of porn downloaded by the SEC.

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 10:58 | 3198707 Sudden Debt

do you really think those guys have a download CEILING?

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 11:24 | 3198828 Dr. Richard Head

They did, but it was temporarily suspended.....until the 1000^8 - Y yottabyte chip is created, so it shouldn't be suspended for too much longer.

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 11:28 | 3198844 trav777

either you're dyslexic or my laptop is upside down

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 10:56 | 3198694 Cognitive Dissonance

If they can do that in 4 years just imagine what they can do in 8.

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 10:43 | 3198625 Cognitive Dissonance

Plenty of room to go higher.

"Engine room. More steam." - Bernanke

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 11:00 | 3198721 Deacon Frost

Unfortunately CD we run into the 'Diminishing Marginal Productivity of Debt'

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 11:27 | 3198842 centerline

No worries, after it passes zero (already did actually) we get to enjoy economic cannabalism in order to derive sythetic yield. Fun times ahead.

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 11:50 | 3198952 Deacon Frost

Cannibalism is the operative term here for sure.

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 11:06 | 3198743 Dr. Richard Head

Here is to the day The Bearded Bernanke gets that hockey stick right in his poop hole.

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 11:15 | 3198796 Cognitive Dissonance

You said a dirty word. I'm telling.

<Promise me you'll never say "The Bearded Bernanke" ever again.> :)

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 10:44 | 3198633 otto skorzeny

brO blames guns for this

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 10:45 | 3198634 Osmium

"Deficits don't matter" - Dick "Ka Boom" Cheney

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 11:03 | 3198731 toady

"If I don't get what I want, the terrorists win"

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 10:45 | 3198635 firstdivision

This means we're winning, right?

How much of that debt was to prop up this farce dicotomy that we call an economy?

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 10:47 | 3198651 EscapeKey

Sadly, I think Japan are a shoe-in for the award.

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 10:46 | 3198640 nantucket

erradicate the word "trillion", chop off everone's left foot, eat more kale, and force every citizen to take a course on the architecture of machu pichu.

problem solved.

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 11:00 | 3198714 secret_sam

don't be mockin' on kale. that stuff rocks.

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 11:08 | 3198748 IridiumRebel

IridiumRebel's Baked Kale recipe

One bag kale

olive oil

salt

...................................................

wash kale and separate stems from leafy greens and tear into small pieces

drizzle olive oil and salt

mix that shit

bake at 375 for 20-25 minutes

fucking eat

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 11:44 | 3198930 tip e. canoe

tip e.'s raw remix

same ingredients & prep

put that shit in the dehydrator for 8 hours

(to preserve the nutrients)

fucking eat

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 11:46 | 3198933 IridiumRebel

de-hy-fucking-drate!

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 11:47 | 3198938 tip e. canoe

just make sure its sea salt

table salt is nasty

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 10:47 | 3198648 Dr. Engali

A great pheasant hunter once said.."deficits don't matter".....until they do....I added that last part.

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 10:48 | 3198656 otto skorzeny

there is nothing "great" about that evil halliburton asshole.

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 10:51 | 3198667 Dr. Engali

That was sarcasm otto....I really didn't think I need to add the tag after this long.

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 12:23 | 3199084 Nobody For President

Though I do believe it was grouse, dear Doctor, but no mind. It was really 'hunting partner'...

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 10:51 | 3198670 TotalCarp

I cannot wait for Krugfuck to start making rounds on tv saying "see we should print more!"

The insanity shall not stop. Minds are made up. Battle lines are drawn. The end is indeed approaching. (mind you i am the one who usualy argues here that it will take waaay longer then most here think)

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 10:55 | 3198691 Dr. Engali

Admittedly I have been surprised how long they have been able to hold it together. Now I'm to the point were it wouldn't surprise me if we are taliking about the same things 10 years from now.

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 11:09 | 3198761 TotalCarp

Yes doc. All bets are off really. Moral of the story is obvious.. You cant "buy" even nominal growth anymore. But.. It appears you can buy a few more months of systemic stability. Then a few more.. Then a few more.

Very curious to see what bernank mumbles today. Gold clearly made up its mind for this afternoon.

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 11:12 | 3198780 Dr. Richard Head

10 moar years? Fuck me, I sure hope not.

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 11:32 | 3198856 centerline

Well, they are pulling out all the stops to convince everyone that everything is okay right now. Since that isn't working so well, I suppose plan B is to make people think that they can keep the ship from sinking for a very, very long time - providing plenty of room for repairs to be made.

Seems to me that all indicators point towards the lower decks being hopelessly flooded.

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 11:11 | 3198776 Afrispaans

It happens faster than you'd think. One moment your wife is chartering private planes for a weekend's shopping in Paris, and the next your country has a total of $217 with which to start the year.

http://www.news24.com/Africa/Zimbabwe/Zimbabwes-bank-balance-stands-at-2...

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 12:02 | 3198999 trav777

every jurisdiction run by this demographic is merely ONE election away from a Mugabe. Detroit already had a few of them. It's always the same.

I pitched in $30 to get into Zimbabwe back at the end of 2012; they're lucky all those japanese tourists were buying double entry.

I smashed on some ho from harare; thought she was british. Apparently, people still work there and there are actually some operating businesses for the time being.

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 10:49 | 3198654 Ham-bone

Growth is good...no???

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 10:49 | 3198661 youngman

I wonder if this will affect Moochelle´s travel plans???

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 12:03 | 3199005 trav777

long as they keep runways paved, she's good to take AF1

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 10:50 | 3198664 Headbanger

I don't know if I should laugh, cry or throw up from seeing how dumbed down

this country has become with all this BS

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 22:15 | 3201084 StychoKiller

Yer avatar knows what to do... :>D

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 10:50 | 3198665 q99x2

Ugh.

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 10:53 | 3198682 Sudden Debt

I KNEW WE SHOULDN'T HAVE LET GO TIMMY GOATER!!

HE'S GONE AND SUDDENLY, WITHOUT REASON OR CAUSE, THE US DEBT SKYROCKETS TO 103%!!

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 11:30 | 3198853 machineh

Don't worry, he's still available on a consulting basis!

Of course, it's gonna cost us ....

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 10:53 | 3198683 Inthemix96

Dont worry folks follow the lead of the "Co-alition" over here.

Just do like we have with our in-bred child molesting parasites and introduce the "BedRoom Tax" and as you will so shortly see, these "Difficult Decisions" will pay off and return us all to sanity, sorry prosperity.

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 22:17 | 3201092 StychoKiller

This "bedroom tax," is it per inch? Yeesh, talk about deflatin'! :>D

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 10:55 | 3198689 Sudden Debt

I GOT A NEW FUNNY FACT!!!

INFLATION:

Did anybody knew that DISCOUNT DAYS ACTUALLY SUPPRESED THE OFFICIAL INFLATION RATES?!?!

YEAH IT DOES!!!!

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 11:10 | 3198703 ejmoosa

We nees the debt to profit ratio. Because that's how many years we will have to work to pay back this debt.

I calculated it and the ration is 835%.

It would take 8.35 years to pay back the Debt IF you took all profits from small mom and pop businesses to major corporations.

Think about that for a moment.

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 11:00 | 3198716 IridiumRebel

Motherfucking sustainable!

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 11:01 | 3198719 secret_sam

Reagan proved deficits don't matter, anyway.

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 11:14 | 3198789 toady

Whenever I hear that one I wonder, who did he prove it to? The American public? An esteemed group of economists? The UN?

Is there a written document, like the constitution or emancipation proclamation, that states in clear language why or how deficits don't matter.

If so, can my lawyers use said document(s) to prove my deficits don't matter?

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 11:39 | 3198901 secret_sam

He proved it to "history."

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 11:03 | 3198730 BinAround

Does anyone know if student loans are included in the Federal spending data that creates the deficit? It looks to be about $100bln of lending in 2012.

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 11:04 | 3198733 luckylongshot

Does anyone still believe official debt figures?...and this one in particular as it was calculated without including unfunded liabilities. The range of debt estimates goes from the official (partial) $16 Trillion to over $200 Trillion (impartial)...Am I the only one with doubts about official partial figures that overlook unfunded liabilities?

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 11:09 | 3198758 climber

It is hard to believe that a man is telling the truth when you know that you would lie if you were in his place. - H. L. Mencken

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 11:20 | 3198814 alfbell

Oh, we'll make it all the way up to a 350% debt/GDP ratio, or higher. I ain't worried. The status quo will continue for a long long long time. Smooth sailing for years to come.

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 11:21 | 3198822 IridiumRebel

http://www.jpost.com/Defense/Article.aspx?id=301528

WAR!!!!! BULLISH!!!!!

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 11:24 | 3198829 IridiumRebel

http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4338995,00.html

Meggido to make this fucking GDP SOAR

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 11:32 | 3198865 azzhatter

No worries mates, Barry Obuttfuck has it all under control. He's working that gay marriage thing right now

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 11:37 | 3198878 azzhatter

The problem with Santelli is he doesn't realize how devious these pricks are. They care nothing about the future of the country, just keep it sustained until they check out. These fuckers are not looking for a solution to problems, they are looking for ways to run from a problem. 90% of americans have no idea and couldn't care less how devious these fuckers are, just don't cancel dancing with stars or Idol. We are in a fucked up place and I look at my grand children with pity for what they will reap.

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 22:18 | 3201099 StychoKiller

Buy the li'l nippers some Kruggerands...

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 11:48 | 3198924 alfbell

The problem is not economics or economists... not politics or politicians... or education or teachers... or capitalism or socialism or cronyism or fascism or totalitarianism or egalitarianism... or sociology and sociologists... or science or scientists... or mathematics or mathematicians... or immorality and crime or criminals... or evil or monsters...

The problem is man's total lack of understanding of the human mind and himself.

THIS is what man has been missing, avoiding, not confronting and failing to place the proper importance on since he's been here.

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 12:03 | 3199006 tahoebumsmith

That's unpatriotic...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zUPZJDBJI84

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 12:22 | 3199072 Curt W

Wait the debt has been stuck at $16.432 Trillion for over a month.

They are spending pension money now.

The day they raise the ceiling, that number is going to jump up by several hundred billion.

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 12:32 | 3199114 natronic

So this story says Debt is 72% of GDP http://thehill.com/blogs/on-the-money/economy/279857-report-fiscal-outlo...

But really we know it's 103%. Basically right now you can't even trust trusted news sources because they are getting bad info to write stories. All the "smart" people can't get a grip on what is going on. While us stupid uninformed people know exactly what is going on and are buying gold/silver like crazy. The world will not survive the crash of the dollar. The US is 5% of world population but 30% of the wealth.

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 14:51 | 3199586 FSM_47

Obama is a giant hemorroid on the body-politic

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 15:08 | 3199666 Me_Myself_and_I

Hey why don't we just pay off the debt with 16 different trillion dollar coins commissioned from the National Mint (marianas).. using actual platinum recovered from the world trade center site?

That would be super patriotic, and clear up this little mess of the debt, stat.

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 18:11 | 3200447 DowTheorist

Excessive debt may be finally awakening the bond vigilantes. The BLV (Long-term bond term bond ETF) /GLD ratio is turning bearish, which denotes relatively stronger gold. Here is the vital chart to look at:

http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2013/01/dow-theory-update-for-jan-30-...

US Ends 2012 With 103.8% Debt To GDP

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