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US Ends 2012 With 103.8% Debt To GDP

Tyler Durden's picture





 

Previously, when calculating debt/GDP metrics for the US, we naturally assumed some GDP growth in Q4. Following today's GDP data we now know what Q4 GDP is. We also know that, at least on a preliminary basis, it posted a decline on an annualized basis. This means that we now have an official print for US Debt/GDP as of December 31, 2012. The numerator, or debt: $16.432 trillion, or the debt ceiling, which as we know was breached on the same day, and which has yet to be formally raised. The denominator, or GDP: $15.829 trillion. This means that the formal debt/GDP is now 103.8% and growing fast.

Indicatively, this has risen from 76.5% on the day of Obama's first inauguaral address.

And for those who, erroneous, allege that Q4 GDP declined due to US government "austerity", here are the facts: in Q4, the US added some $312 billion in debt. And more to the point, the US government spent a grand total of $907.9 billion in the same quarter. This compares to $877.1 billion a quarter earlier: $30 billion less.

Some "Austerity."

 


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Wed, 01/30/2013 - 10:40 | Link to Comment SilverTree
SilverTree's picture

As silver and gold Pop.

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 10:42 | Link to Comment Say What Again
Say What Again's picture

Absolutely BULLISH

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 11:14 | Link to Comment sotto
sotto's picture

Oh yeah, it couldn't get any better.  See here:  http://economiccollapsenews.com/2013/01/30/u-s-still-headed-toward-econo...

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 11:27 | Link to Comment trav777
trav777's picture

so at this run rate, what's the total debt delta gonna be under Obama...+12T.

They certainly did stack on new taxes and whatnot, but Bama has already added $6T from 1/20/09 to now.  Funny how all this debt was "destroying the economy" when Busch did it, but now it's "saving the economy from the debt that Busch destroyed it with."

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 12:15 | Link to Comment economics9698
economics9698's picture

126% by 2016, but we have a Black Swan event coming soon.

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 12:19 | Link to Comment The Juggernaut
The Juggernaut's picture

...and Krugman wants MORE gov't/Fed (centralized) spending?  What the fuck is wrong with this meglomaniac?

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 14:32 | Link to Comment SamAdams
SamAdams's picture

Krugman clearly understands the correlation between the debt chart and the djia chart.  Both charts point to a very good return for Krugman and the people who do G_d's work....

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 11:19 | Link to Comment Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

Yep, because every ending is actually also some kind of new begining!

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 11:38 | Link to Comment Groundhog Day
Groundhog Day's picture

MONEY = DEBT, DEBT = MONEY, THEREFORE GROWTH IN DEBT SHOULD EQUATE TO GROWTH IN GDP. GROWTH ALL AROUND, ALL IS WELL.

KRUGMAN

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 11:53 | Link to Comment Freddie
Freddie's picture

Hope & Change.  Amerika's stock market reacting like Zimbabwe's did. Oba-MAO is our Mugabe II.

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 10:46 | Link to Comment aint no fortuna...
aint no fortunate son's picture

aaaaand cue - equities rally, led of course by AMZN

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 10:55 | Link to Comment Say What Again
Say What Again's picture

DOW over 14,000 today.

Then talk about DOW going to 15,000

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 11:10 | Link to Comment IridiumRebel
IridiumRebel's picture

'

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 11:10 | Link to Comment IridiumRebel
IridiumRebel's picture

then a million! 

fuck yeah

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 11:31 | Link to Comment Chupacabra-322
Chupacabra-322's picture

OK, so when exactly does the shit hit the fan?  Or has it hit already?  Perhaps this is just a phase of uncontrollable explosive diarrhea. 

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 11:33 | Link to Comment IridiumRebel
IridiumRebel's picture

It does when war(coming soon) between the US/Israel vs Russia/Syria/Iran/China......hope you gotta plan.

http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4338964,00.html

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 14:36 | Link to Comment SamAdams
SamAdams's picture

The impending false flag information was hacked by someone in malaysia? and posted on 4chan, before making its rounds, round the world.  Not sure they will pull such a deal now that the cat is out of the bag.

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 11:58 | Link to Comment unrulian
unrulian's picture

When they've taken the guns of course

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 12:56 | Link to Comment Chupacabra-322
Chupacabra-322's picture

They will get the business end with bullets first.  That's my plan. 

And, judging by the amount of gun sales lately, that's a lot of The American People's plan. 

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 10:48 | Link to Comment youngman
youngman's picture

As they should...

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 11:46 | Link to Comment Stuntgirl
Stuntgirl's picture

That's the weird bit.

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 10:40 | Link to Comment Lohn Jocke
Lohn Jocke's picture

Bullish.

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 10:41 | Link to Comment krispkritter
krispkritter's picture

FORWARD!

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 10:42 | Link to Comment Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

That chart is going up...the sheeple and momos cheer!

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 10:42 | Link to Comment Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

Oh... I thought the graph show adults with fulltime jobs...

nevermind...

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 10:46 | Link to Comment EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

More likely, it shows morning show Nielsen TV ratings.

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 10:54 | Link to Comment CrimsonAvenger
CrimsonAvenger's picture

Or GBs of porn downloaded by the SEC.

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 10:58 | Link to Comment Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

do you really think those guys have a download CEILING?

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 11:24 | Link to Comment Dr. Richard Head
Dr. Richard Head's picture

They did, but it was temporarily suspended.....until the 1000^8 - Y yottabyte chip is created, so it shouldn't be suspended for too much longer.

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 11:28 | Link to Comment trav777
trav777's picture

either you're dyslexic or my laptop is upside down

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 10:56 | Link to Comment Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

If they can do that in 4 years just imagine what they can do in 8.

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 10:43 | Link to Comment Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Plenty of room to go higher.

"Engine room. More steam." - Bernanke

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 11:00 | Link to Comment Deacon Frost
Deacon Frost's picture

Unfortunately CD we run into the 'Diminishing Marginal Productivity of Debt'

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 11:27 | Link to Comment centerline
centerline's picture

No worries, after it passes zero (already did actually) we get to enjoy economic cannabalism in order to derive sythetic yield.  Fun times ahead.

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 11:50 | Link to Comment Deacon Frost
Deacon Frost's picture

Cannibalism is the operative term here for sure.

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 11:06 | Link to Comment Dr. Richard Head
Dr. Richard Head's picture

Here is to the day The Bearded Bernanke gets that hockey stick right in his poop hole.

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 11:15 | Link to Comment Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

You said a dirty word. I'm telling. 

<Promise me you'll never say "The Bearded Bernanke" ever again.>  :)

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 10:44 | Link to Comment otto skorzeny
otto skorzeny's picture

brO blames guns for this

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 10:45 | Link to Comment Osmium
Osmium's picture

"Deficits don't matter" - Dick "Ka Boom" Cheney 

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 11:03 | Link to Comment toady
toady's picture

"If I don't get what I want, the terrorists win"

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 10:45 | Link to Comment firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

This means we're winning, right?

 

How much of that debt was to prop up this farce dicotomy that we call an economy?

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 10:47 | Link to Comment EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

Sadly, I think Japan are a shoe-in for the award.

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 10:46 | Link to Comment nantucket
nantucket's picture

erradicate the word "trillion", chop off everone's left foot, eat more kale, and force every citizen to take a course on the architecture of machu pichu.

 

problem solved.

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 11:00 | Link to Comment secret_sam
secret_sam's picture

don't be mockin' on kale.  that stuff rocks.

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 11:08 | Link to Comment IridiumRebel
IridiumRebel's picture

IridiumRebel's Baked Kale recipe

 

 

One bag kale

olive oil

salt

...................................................

wash kale and separate stems from leafy greens and tear into small pieces 

drizzle olive oil and salt

mix that shit

bake at 375 for 20-25 minutes

fucking eat

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 11:44 | Link to Comment tip e. canoe
tip e. canoe's picture

tip e.'s raw remix

same ingredients & prep

put that shit in the dehydrator for 8 hours

(to preserve the nutrients)

fucking eat

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 11:46 | Link to Comment IridiumRebel
IridiumRebel's picture

de-hy-fucking-drate!

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 11:47 | Link to Comment tip e. canoe
tip e. canoe's picture

just make sure its sea salt

table salt is nasty

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 10:47 | Link to Comment Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

A great pheasant hunter once said.."deficits don't matter".....until they do....I added that last part.

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 10:48 | Link to Comment otto skorzeny
otto skorzeny's picture

there is nothing "great" about that evil halliburton asshole.

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 10:51 | Link to Comment Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

That was sarcasm otto....I really didn't think I need to add the tag after this long.

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 12:23 | Link to Comment Nobody For President
Nobody For President's picture

Though I do believe it was grouse, dear Doctor, but no mind. It was really 'hunting partner'...

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 10:51 | Link to Comment TotalCarp
TotalCarp's picture

I cannot wait for Krugfuck to start making rounds on tv saying "see we should print more!"

The insanity shall not stop. Minds are made up. Battle lines are drawn. The end is indeed approaching. (mind you i am the one who usualy argues here that it will take waaay longer then most here think)

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 10:55 | Link to Comment Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Admittedly I have been surprised how long they have been able to hold it together. Now I'm to the point were it wouldn't surprise me if we are taliking about the same things 10 years from now.

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 11:09 | Link to Comment TotalCarp
TotalCarp's picture

Yes doc. All bets are off really. Moral of the story is obvious.. You cant "buy" even nominal growth anymore. But.. It appears you can buy a few more months of systemic stability. Then a few more.. Then a few more.

Very curious to see what bernank mumbles today. Gold clearly made up its mind for this afternoon.

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 11:12 | Link to Comment Dr. Richard Head
Dr. Richard Head's picture

10 moar years?  Fuck me, I sure hope not.

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 11:32 | Link to Comment centerline
centerline's picture

Well, they are pulling out all the stops to convince everyone that everything is okay right now.  Since that isn't working so well, I suppose plan B is to make people think that they can keep the ship from sinking for a very, very long time - providing plenty of room for repairs to be made.

Seems to me that all indicators point towards the lower decks being hopelessly flooded.

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 11:11 | Link to Comment Afrispaans
Afrispaans's picture

It happens faster than you'd think. One moment your wife is chartering private planes for a weekend's shopping in Paris, and the next your country has a total of $217 with which to start the year.

http://www.news24.com/Africa/Zimbabwe/Zimbabwes-bank-balance-stands-at-2...

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 12:02 | Link to Comment trav777
trav777's picture

every jurisdiction run by this demographic is merely ONE election away from a Mugabe.  Detroit already had a few of them.  It's always the same.

I pitched in $30 to get into Zimbabwe back at the end of 2012; they're lucky all those japanese tourists were buying double entry.

I smashed on some ho from harare; thought she was british.  Apparently, people still work there and there are actually some operating businesses for the time being.

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 10:49 | Link to Comment Ham-bone
Ham-bone's picture

Growth is good...no???

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 10:49 | Link to Comment youngman
youngman's picture

I wonder if this will affect Moochelle´s travel plans???

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 12:03 | Link to Comment trav777
trav777's picture

long as they keep runways paved, she's good to take AF1

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 10:50 | Link to Comment Headbanger
Headbanger's picture

I don't know if I should laugh, cry or throw up from seeing how dumbed down

this country has become with all this BS

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 22:15 | Link to Comment StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

Yer avatar knows what to do... :>D

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 10:50 | Link to Comment q99x2
q99x2's picture

Ugh.

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 10:53 | Link to Comment Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

I KNEW WE SHOULDN'T HAVE LET GO TIMMY GOATER!!

HE'S GONE AND SUDDENLY, WITHOUT REASON OR CAUSE, THE US DEBT SKYROCKETS TO 103%!!

 

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 11:30 | Link to Comment machineh
machineh's picture

Don't worry, he's still available on a consulting basis!

Of course, it's gonna cost us ....

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 10:53 | Link to Comment Inthemix96
Inthemix96's picture

Dont worry folks follow the lead of the "Co-alition" over here.

Just do like we have with our in-bred child molesting parasites and introduce the "BedRoom Tax" and as you will so shortly see, these "Difficult Decisions" will pay off and return us all to sanity, sorry prosperity.

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 22:17 | Link to Comment StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

This "bedroom tax," is it per inch?  Yeesh, talk about deflatin'! :>D

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 10:55 | Link to Comment Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

I GOT A NEW FUNNY FACT!!!

 

INFLATION:

Did anybody knew that DISCOUNT DAYS ACTUALLY SUPPRESED THE OFFICIAL INFLATION RATES?!?!

YEAH IT DOES!!!!

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 11:10 | Link to Comment ejmoosa
ejmoosa's picture

We nees the debt to profit ratio.  Because that's how many years we will have to work to pay back this debt.

I calculated it and the ration is 835%.

It would take 8.35 years to pay back the Debt IF you took all profits from small mom and pop businesses to major corporations.  

Think about that for a moment.

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 11:00 | Link to Comment IridiumRebel
IridiumRebel's picture

Motherfucking sustainable!

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 11:01 | Link to Comment secret_sam
secret_sam's picture

Reagan proved deficits don't matter, anyway.

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 11:14 | Link to Comment toady
toady's picture

Whenever I hear that one I wonder, who did he prove it to? The American public? An esteemed group of economists? The UN?

Is there a written document, like the constitution or emancipation proclamation, that states in clear language why or how deficits don't matter.

If so, can my lawyers use said document(s) to prove my deficits don't matter?

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 11:39 | Link to Comment secret_sam
secret_sam's picture

He proved it to "history."

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 11:03 | Link to Comment BinAround
BinAround's picture

Does anyone know if student loans are included in the Federal spending data that creates the deficit?  It looks to be about $100bln of lending in 2012.

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 11:04 | Link to Comment luckylongshot
luckylongshot's picture

Does anyone still believe official debt figures?...and this one in particular as it was calculated without including unfunded liabilities. The range of debt estimates goes from the official (partial) $16 Trillion to over $200 Trillion (impartial)...Am I the only one with doubts about official partial figures that overlook unfunded liabilities?

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 11:09 | Link to Comment climber
climber's picture

It is hard to believe that a man is telling the truth when you know that you would lie if you were in his place. - H. L. Mencken

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 11:20 | Link to Comment alfbell
alfbell's picture

Oh, we'll make it all the way up to a 350% debt/GDP ratio, or higher. I ain't worried. The status quo will continue for a long long long time. Smooth sailing for years to come.

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 11:21 | Link to Comment IridiumRebel
Wed, 01/30/2013 - 11:24 | Link to Comment IridiumRebel
IridiumRebel's picture

http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4338995,00.html

Meggido to make this fucking GDP SOAR

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 11:32 | Link to Comment azzhatter
azzhatter's picture

No worries mates, Barry Obuttfuck has it all under control. He's working that gay marriage thing right now

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 11:37 | Link to Comment azzhatter
azzhatter's picture

The problem with Santelli is he doesn't realize how devious these pricks are. They care nothing about the future of the country, just keep it sustained until they check out. These fuckers are not looking for a solution to problems, they are looking for ways to run from a problem. 90% of americans have no idea and couldn't care less how devious these fuckers are, just don't cancel dancing with stars or Idol. We are in a fucked up place and I look at my grand children with pity for what they will reap.

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 22:18 | Link to Comment StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

Buy the li'l nippers some Kruggerands...

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 11:48 | Link to Comment alfbell
alfbell's picture

 

 

The problem is not economics or economists... not politics or politicians... or education or teachers... or capitalism or socialism or cronyism or fascism or totalitarianism or egalitarianism... or sociology and sociologists... or science or scientists... or mathematics or mathematicians... or immorality and crime or criminals... or evil or monsters...

The problem is man's total lack of understanding of the human mind and himself.

THIS is what man has been missing, avoiding, not confronting and failing to place the proper importance on since he's been here.

 

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 12:03 | Link to Comment tahoebumsmith
Wed, 01/30/2013 - 12:22 | Link to Comment Curt W
Curt W's picture

Wait the debt has been stuck at $16.432 Trillion for over a month.

They are spending pension money now.

The day they raise the ceiling, that number is going to jump up by several hundred billion.

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 12:32 | Link to Comment natronic
natronic's picture

So this story says Debt is 72% of GDP   http://thehill.com/blogs/on-the-money/economy/279857-report-fiscal-outlo...

But really we know it's 103%.  Basically right now you can't even trust trusted news sources because they are getting bad info to write stories.  All the "smart" people can't get a grip on what is going on.  While us stupid uninformed people know exactly what is going on and are buying gold/silver like crazy.  The world will not survive the crash of the dollar.  The US is 5% of world population but 30% of the wealth. 

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 14:51 | Link to Comment FSM_47
FSM_47's picture

Obama is a giant hemorroid  on the body-politic

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 15:08 | Link to Comment Me_Myself_and_I
Me_Myself_and_I's picture

Hey why don't we just pay off the debt with 16 different trillion dollar coins commissioned from the National Mint (marianas).. using actual platinum recovered from the world trade center site?

That would be super patriotic, and clear up this little mess of the debt, stat.

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 18:11 | Link to Comment DowTheorist
DowTheorist's picture

Excessive debt may be finally awakening the bond vigilantes. The BLV (Long-term bond term bond ETF) /GLD ratio is turning bearish, which denotes relatively stronger gold. Here is the vital chart to look at:

http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2013/01/dow-theory-update-for-jan-30-...

 

 

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