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US Ends 2012 With 103.8% Debt To GDP

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Previously, when calculating debt/GDP metrics for the US, we naturally assumed some GDP growth in Q4. Following today's GDP data we now know what Q4 GDP is. We also know that, at least on a preliminary basis, it posted a decline on an annualized basis. This means that we now have an official print for US Debt/GDP as of December 31, 2012. The numerator, or debt: $16.432 trillion, or the debt ceiling, which as we know was breached on the same day, and which has yet to be formally raised. The denominator, or GDP: $15.829 trillion. This means that the formal debt/GDP is now 103.8% and growing fast.

Indicatively, this has risen from 76.5% on the day of Obama's first inauguaral address.

And for those who, erroneous, allege that Q4 GDP declined due to US government "austerity", here are the facts: in Q4, the US added some $312 billion in debt. And more to the point, the US government spent a grand total of $907.9 billion in the same quarter. This compares to $877.1 billion a quarter earlier: $30 billion less.

Some "Austerity."

 

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Wed, 01/30/2013 - 10:40 | 3198607 SilverTree
SilverTree's picture

As silver and gold Pop.

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 10:42 | 3198611 Say What Again
Say What Again's picture

Absolutely BULLISH

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 11:14 | 3198785 sotto
sotto's picture

Oh yeah, it couldn't get any better.  See here:  http://economiccollapsenews.com/2013/01/30/u-s-still-headed-toward-econo...

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 11:27 | 3198838 trav777
trav777's picture

so at this run rate, what's the total debt delta gonna be under Obama...+12T.

They certainly did stack on new taxes and whatnot, but Bama has already added $6T from 1/20/09 to now.  Funny how all this debt was "destroying the economy" when Busch did it, but now it's "saving the economy from the debt that Busch destroyed it with."

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 12:15 | 3199055 economics9698
economics9698's picture

126% by 2016, but we have a Black Swan event coming soon.

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 12:19 | 3199060 The Juggernaut
The Juggernaut's picture

...and Krugman wants MORE gov't/Fed (centralized) spending?  What the fuck is wrong with this meglomaniac?

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 14:32 | 3199504 SamAdams
SamAdams's picture

Krugman clearly understands the correlation between the debt chart and the djia chart.  Both charts point to a very good return for Krugman and the people who do G_d's work....

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 11:19 | 3198812 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

Yep, because every ending is actually also some kind of new begining!

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 11:38 | 3198883 Groundhog Day
Groundhog Day's picture

MONEY = DEBT, DEBT = MONEY, THEREFORE GROWTH IN DEBT SHOULD EQUATE TO GROWTH IN GDP. GROWTH ALL AROUND, ALL IS WELL.

KRUGMAN

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 11:53 | 3198966 Freddie
Freddie's picture

Hope & Change.  Amerika's stock market reacting like Zimbabwe's did. Oba-MAO is our Mugabe II.

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 10:46 | 3198647 aint no fortuna...
aint no fortunate son's picture

aaaaand cue - equities rally, led of course by AMZN

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 10:55 | 3198697 Say What Again
Say What Again's picture

DOW over 14,000 today.

Then talk about DOW going to 15,000

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 11:10 | 3198763 IridiumRebel
IridiumRebel's picture

'

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 11:10 | 3198764 IridiumRebel
IridiumRebel's picture

then a million! 

fuck yeah

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 11:31 | 3198854 Chupacabra-322
Chupacabra-322's picture

OK, so when exactly does the shit hit the fan?  Or has it hit already?  Perhaps this is just a phase of uncontrollable explosive diarrhea. 

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 11:33 | 3198866 IridiumRebel
IridiumRebel's picture

It does when war(coming soon) between the US/Israel vs Russia/Syria/Iran/China......hope you gotta plan.

http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4338964,00.html

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 14:36 | 3199518 SamAdams
SamAdams's picture

The impending false flag information was hacked by someone in malaysia? and posted on 4chan, before making its rounds, round the world.  Not sure they will pull such a deal now that the cat is out of the bag.

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 11:58 | 3198983 unrulian
unrulian's picture

When they've taken the guns of course

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 12:56 | 3199189 Chupacabra-322
Chupacabra-322's picture

They will get the business end with bullets first.  That's my plan. 

And, judging by the amount of gun sales lately, that's a lot of The American People's plan. 

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 10:48 | 3198649 youngman
youngman's picture

As they should...

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 11:46 | 3198932 Stuntgirl
Stuntgirl's picture

That's the weird bit.

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 10:40 | 3198608 Lohn Jocke
Lohn Jocke's picture

Bullish.

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 10:41 | 3198609 krispkritter
krispkritter's picture

FORWARD!

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 10:42 | 3198621 Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

That chart is going up...the sheeple and momos cheer!

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 10:42 | 3198623 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

Oh... I thought the graph show adults with fulltime jobs...

nevermind...

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 10:46 | 3198641 EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

More likely, it shows morning show Nielsen TV ratings.

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 10:54 | 3198685 CrimsonAvenger
CrimsonAvenger's picture

Or GBs of porn downloaded by the SEC.

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 10:58 | 3198707 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

do you really think those guys have a download CEILING?

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 11:24 | 3198828 Dr. Richard Head
Dr. Richard Head's picture

They did, but it was temporarily suspended.....until the 1000^8 - Y yottabyte chip is created, so it shouldn't be suspended for too much longer.

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 11:28 | 3198844 trav777
trav777's picture

either you're dyslexic or my laptop is upside down

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 10:56 | 3198694 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

If they can do that in 4 years just imagine what they can do in 8.

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 10:43 | 3198625 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Plenty of room to go higher.

"Engine room. More steam." - Bernanke

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 11:00 | 3198721 Deacon Frost
Deacon Frost's picture

Unfortunately CD we run into the 'Diminishing Marginal Productivity of Debt'

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 11:27 | 3198842 centerline
centerline's picture

No worries, after it passes zero (already did actually) we get to enjoy economic cannabalism in order to derive sythetic yield.  Fun times ahead.

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 11:50 | 3198952 Deacon Frost
Deacon Frost's picture

Cannibalism is the operative term here for sure.

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 11:06 | 3198743 Dr. Richard Head
Dr. Richard Head's picture

Here is to the day The Bearded Bernanke gets that hockey stick right in his poop hole.

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 11:15 | 3198796 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

You said a dirty word. I'm telling. 

<Promise me you'll never say "The Bearded Bernanke" ever again.>  :)

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 10:44 | 3198633 otto skorzeny
otto skorzeny's picture

brO blames guns for this

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 10:45 | 3198634 Osmium
Osmium's picture

"Deficits don't matter" - Dick "Ka Boom" Cheney 

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 11:03 | 3198731 toady
toady's picture

"If I don't get what I want, the terrorists win"

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 10:45 | 3198635 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

This means we're winning, right?

 

How much of that debt was to prop up this farce dicotomy that we call an economy?

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 10:47 | 3198651 EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

Sadly, I think Japan are a shoe-in for the award.

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 10:46 | 3198640 nantucket
nantucket's picture

erradicate the word "trillion", chop off everone's left foot, eat more kale, and force every citizen to take a course on the architecture of machu pichu.

 

problem solved.

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 11:00 | 3198714 secret_sam
secret_sam's picture

don't be mockin' on kale.  that stuff rocks.

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 11:08 | 3198748 IridiumRebel
IridiumRebel's picture

IridiumRebel's Baked Kale recipe

 

 

One bag kale

olive oil

salt

...................................................

wash kale and separate stems from leafy greens and tear into small pieces 

drizzle olive oil and salt

mix that shit

bake at 375 for 20-25 minutes

fucking eat

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 11:44 | 3198930 tip e. canoe
tip e. canoe's picture

tip e.'s raw remix

same ingredients & prep

put that shit in the dehydrator for 8 hours

(to preserve the nutrients)

fucking eat

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 11:46 | 3198933 IridiumRebel
IridiumRebel's picture

de-hy-fucking-drate!

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 11:47 | 3198938 tip e. canoe
tip e. canoe's picture

just make sure its sea salt

table salt is nasty

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 10:47 | 3198648 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

A great pheasant hunter once said.."deficits don't matter".....until they do....I added that last part.

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 10:48 | 3198656 otto skorzeny
otto skorzeny's picture

there is nothing "great" about that evil halliburton asshole.

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 10:51 | 3198667 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

That was sarcasm otto....I really didn't think I need to add the tag after this long.

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 12:23 | 3199084 Nobody For President
Nobody For President's picture

Though I do believe it was grouse, dear Doctor, but no mind. It was really 'hunting partner'...

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 10:51 | 3198670 TotalCarp
TotalCarp's picture

I cannot wait for Krugfuck to start making rounds on tv saying "see we should print more!"

The insanity shall not stop. Minds are made up. Battle lines are drawn. The end is indeed approaching. (mind you i am the one who usualy argues here that it will take waaay longer then most here think)

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 10:55 | 3198691 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Admittedly I have been surprised how long they have been able to hold it together. Now I'm to the point were it wouldn't surprise me if we are taliking about the same things 10 years from now.

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 11:09 | 3198761 TotalCarp
TotalCarp's picture

Yes doc. All bets are off really. Moral of the story is obvious.. You cant "buy" even nominal growth anymore. But.. It appears you can buy a few more months of systemic stability. Then a few more.. Then a few more.

Very curious to see what bernank mumbles today. Gold clearly made up its mind for this afternoon.

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 11:12 | 3198780 Dr. Richard Head
Dr. Richard Head's picture

10 moar years?  Fuck me, I sure hope not.

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 11:32 | 3198856 centerline
centerline's picture

Well, they are pulling out all the stops to convince everyone that everything is okay right now.  Since that isn't working so well, I suppose plan B is to make people think that they can keep the ship from sinking for a very, very long time - providing plenty of room for repairs to be made.

Seems to me that all indicators point towards the lower decks being hopelessly flooded.

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 11:11 | 3198776 Afrispaans
Afrispaans's picture

It happens faster than you'd think. One moment your wife is chartering private planes for a weekend's shopping in Paris, and the next your country has a total of $217 with which to start the year.

http://www.news24.com/Africa/Zimbabwe/Zimbabwes-bank-balance-stands-at-2...

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 12:02 | 3198999 trav777
trav777's picture

every jurisdiction run by this demographic is merely ONE election away from a Mugabe.  Detroit already had a few of them.  It's always the same.

I pitched in $30 to get into Zimbabwe back at the end of 2012; they're lucky all those japanese tourists were buying double entry.

I smashed on some ho from harare; thought she was british.  Apparently, people still work there and there are actually some operating businesses for the time being.

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 10:49 | 3198654 Ham-bone
Ham-bone's picture

Growth is good...no???

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 10:49 | 3198661 youngman
youngman's picture

I wonder if this will affect Moochelle´s travel plans???

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 12:03 | 3199005 trav777
trav777's picture

long as they keep runways paved, she's good to take AF1

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 10:50 | 3198664 Headbanger
Headbanger's picture

I don't know if I should laugh, cry or throw up from seeing how dumbed down

this country has become with all this BS

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 22:15 | 3201084 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

Yer avatar knows what to do... :>D

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 10:50 | 3198665 q99x2
q99x2's picture

Ugh.

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 10:53 | 3198682 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

I KNEW WE SHOULDN'T HAVE LET GO TIMMY GOATER!!

HE'S GONE AND SUDDENLY, WITHOUT REASON OR CAUSE, THE US DEBT SKYROCKETS TO 103%!!

 

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 11:30 | 3198853 machineh
machineh's picture

Don't worry, he's still available on a consulting basis!

Of course, it's gonna cost us ....

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 10:53 | 3198683 Inthemix96
Inthemix96's picture

Dont worry folks follow the lead of the "Co-alition" over here.

Just do like we have with our in-bred child molesting parasites and introduce the "BedRoom Tax" and as you will so shortly see, these "Difficult Decisions" will pay off and return us all to sanity, sorry prosperity.

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 22:17 | 3201092 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

This "bedroom tax," is it per inch?  Yeesh, talk about deflatin'! :>D

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 10:55 | 3198689 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

I GOT A NEW FUNNY FACT!!!

 

INFLATION:

Did anybody knew that DISCOUNT DAYS ACTUALLY SUPPRESED THE OFFICIAL INFLATION RATES?!?!

YEAH IT DOES!!!!

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 11:10 | 3198703 ejmoosa
ejmoosa's picture

We nees the debt to profit ratio.  Because that's how many years we will have to work to pay back this debt.

I calculated it and the ration is 835%.

It would take 8.35 years to pay back the Debt IF you took all profits from small mom and pop businesses to major corporations.  

Think about that for a moment.

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 11:00 | 3198716 IridiumRebel
IridiumRebel's picture

Motherfucking sustainable!

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 11:01 | 3198719 secret_sam
secret_sam's picture

Reagan proved deficits don't matter, anyway.

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 11:14 | 3198789 toady
toady's picture

Whenever I hear that one I wonder, who did he prove it to? The American public? An esteemed group of economists? The UN?

Is there a written document, like the constitution or emancipation proclamation, that states in clear language why or how deficits don't matter.

If so, can my lawyers use said document(s) to prove my deficits don't matter?

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 11:39 | 3198901 secret_sam
secret_sam's picture

He proved it to "history."

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 11:03 | 3198730 BinAround
BinAround's picture

Does anyone know if student loans are included in the Federal spending data that creates the deficit?  It looks to be about $100bln of lending in 2012.

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 11:04 | 3198733 luckylongshot
luckylongshot's picture

Does anyone still believe official debt figures?...and this one in particular as it was calculated without including unfunded liabilities. The range of debt estimates goes from the official (partial) $16 Trillion to over $200 Trillion (impartial)...Am I the only one with doubts about official partial figures that overlook unfunded liabilities?

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 11:09 | 3198758 climber
climber's picture

It is hard to believe that a man is telling the truth when you know that you would lie if you were in his place. - H. L. Mencken

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 11:20 | 3198814 alfbell
alfbell's picture

Oh, we'll make it all the way up to a 350% debt/GDP ratio, or higher. I ain't worried. The status quo will continue for a long long long time. Smooth sailing for years to come.

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 11:21 | 3198822 IridiumRebel
Wed, 01/30/2013 - 11:24 | 3198829 IridiumRebel
IridiumRebel's picture

http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4338995,00.html

Meggido to make this fucking GDP SOAR

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 11:32 | 3198865 azzhatter
azzhatter's picture

No worries mates, Barry Obuttfuck has it all under control. He's working that gay marriage thing right now

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 11:37 | 3198878 azzhatter
azzhatter's picture

The problem with Santelli is he doesn't realize how devious these pricks are. They care nothing about the future of the country, just keep it sustained until they check out. These fuckers are not looking for a solution to problems, they are looking for ways to run from a problem. 90% of americans have no idea and couldn't care less how devious these fuckers are, just don't cancel dancing with stars or Idol. We are in a fucked up place and I look at my grand children with pity for what they will reap.

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 22:18 | 3201099 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

Buy the li'l nippers some Kruggerands...

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 11:48 | 3198924 alfbell
alfbell's picture

 

 

The problem is not economics or economists... not politics or politicians... or education or teachers... or capitalism or socialism or cronyism or fascism or totalitarianism or egalitarianism... or sociology and sociologists... or science or scientists... or mathematics or mathematicians... or immorality and crime or criminals... or evil or monsters...

The problem is man's total lack of understanding of the human mind and himself.

THIS is what man has been missing, avoiding, not confronting and failing to place the proper importance on since he's been here.

 

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 12:03 | 3199006 tahoebumsmith
Wed, 01/30/2013 - 12:22 | 3199072 Curt W
Curt W's picture

Wait the debt has been stuck at $16.432 Trillion for over a month.

They are spending pension money now.

The day they raise the ceiling, that number is going to jump up by several hundred billion.

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 12:32 | 3199114 natronic
natronic's picture

So this story says Debt is 72% of GDP   http://thehill.com/blogs/on-the-money/economy/279857-report-fiscal-outlo...

But really we know it's 103%.  Basically right now you can't even trust trusted news sources because they are getting bad info to write stories.  All the "smart" people can't get a grip on what is going on.  While us stupid uninformed people know exactly what is going on and are buying gold/silver like crazy.  The world will not survive the crash of the dollar.  The US is 5% of world population but 30% of the wealth. 

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 14:51 | 3199586 FSM_47
FSM_47's picture

Obama is a giant hemorroid  on the body-politic

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 15:08 | 3199666 Me_Myself_and_I
Me_Myself_and_I's picture

Hey why don't we just pay off the debt with 16 different trillion dollar coins commissioned from the National Mint (marianas).. using actual platinum recovered from the world trade center site?

That would be super patriotic, and clear up this little mess of the debt, stat.

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 18:11 | 3200447 DowTheorist
DowTheorist's picture

Excessive debt may be finally awakening the bond vigilantes. The BLV (Long-term bond term bond ETF) /GLD ratio is turning bearish, which denotes relatively stronger gold. Here is the vital chart to look at:

http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2013/01/dow-theory-update-for-jan-30-...

 

 

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