US Ends 2012 With 103.8% Debt To GDP

Tyler Durden's picture


Previously, when calculating debt/GDP metrics for the US, we naturally assumed some GDP growth in Q4. Following today's GDP data we now know what Q4 GDP is. We also know that, at least on a preliminary basis, it posted a decline on an annualized basis. This means that we now have an official print for US Debt/GDP as of December 31, 2012. The numerator, or debt: $16.432 trillion, or the debt ceiling, which as we know was breached on the same day, and which has yet to be formally raised. The denominator, or GDP: $15.829 trillion. This means that the formal debt/GDP is now 103.8% and growing fast.

Indicatively, this has risen from 76.5% on the day of Obama's first inauguaral address.

And for those who, erroneous, allege that Q4 GDP declined due to US government "austerity", here are the facts: in Q4, the US added some $312 billion in debt. And more to the point, the US government spent a grand total of $907.9 billion in the same quarter. This compares to $877.1 billion a quarter earlier: $30 billion less.

Some "Austerity."

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Wed, 01/30/2013 - 10:51 | 3198667 Dr. Engali
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That was sarcasm otto....I really didn't think I need to add the tag after this long.

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 12:23 | 3199084 Nobody For President
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Though I do believe it was grouse, dear Doctor, but no mind. It was really 'hunting partner'...

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 10:51 | 3198670 TotalCarp
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I cannot wait for Krugfuck to start making rounds on tv saying "see we should print more!"

The insanity shall not stop. Minds are made up. Battle lines are drawn. The end is indeed approaching. (mind you i am the one who usualy argues here that it will take waaay longer then most here think)

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 10:55 | 3198691 Dr. Engali
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Admittedly I have been surprised how long they have been able to hold it together. Now I'm to the point were it wouldn't surprise me if we are taliking about the same things 10 years from now.

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 11:09 | 3198761 TotalCarp
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Yes doc. All bets are off really. Moral of the story is obvious.. You cant "buy" even nominal growth anymore. But.. It appears you can buy a few more months of systemic stability. Then a few more.. Then a few more.

Very curious to see what bernank mumbles today. Gold clearly made up its mind for this afternoon.

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 11:12 | 3198780 Dr. Richard Head
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10 moar years?  Fuck me, I sure hope not.

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 11:32 | 3198856 centerline
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Well, they are pulling out all the stops to convince everyone that everything is okay right now.  Since that isn't working so well, I suppose plan B is to make people think that they can keep the ship from sinking for a very, very long time - providing plenty of room for repairs to be made.

Seems to me that all indicators point towards the lower decks being hopelessly flooded.

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 11:11 | 3198776 Afrispaans
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It happens faster than you'd think. One moment your wife is chartering private planes for a weekend's shopping in Paris, and the next your country has a total of $217 with which to start the year.

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 12:02 | 3198999 trav777
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every jurisdiction run by this demographic is merely ONE election away from a Mugabe.  Detroit already had a few of them.  It's always the same.

I pitched in $30 to get into Zimbabwe back at the end of 2012; they're lucky all those japanese tourists were buying double entry.

I smashed on some ho from harare; thought she was british.  Apparently, people still work there and there are actually some operating businesses for the time being.

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 10:49 | 3198654 Ham-bone
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Growth is

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 10:49 | 3198661 youngman
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I wonder if this will affect Moochelle´s travel plans???

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 12:03 | 3199005 trav777
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long as they keep runways paved, she's good to take AF1

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 10:50 | 3198664 Headbanger
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I don't know if I should laugh, cry or throw up from seeing how dumbed down

this country has become with all this BS

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 22:15 | 3201084 StychoKiller
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Yer avatar knows what to do... :>D

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 10:50 | 3198665 q99x2
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Wed, 01/30/2013 - 10:53 | 3198682 Sudden Debt
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Wed, 01/30/2013 - 11:30 | 3198853 machineh
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Don't worry, he's still available on a consulting basis!

Of course, it's gonna cost us ....

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 10:53 | 3198683 Inthemix96
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Dont worry folks follow the lead of the "Co-alition" over here.

Just do like we have with our in-bred child molesting parasites and introduce the "BedRoom Tax" and as you will so shortly see, these "Difficult Decisions" will pay off and return us all to sanity, sorry prosperity.

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 22:17 | 3201092 StychoKiller
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This "bedroom tax," is it per inch?  Yeesh, talk about deflatin'! :>D

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 10:55 | 3198689 Sudden Debt
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Wed, 01/30/2013 - 11:10 | 3198703 ejmoosa
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We nees the debt to profit ratio.  Because that's how many years we will have to work to pay back this debt.

I calculated it and the ration is 835%.

It would take 8.35 years to pay back the Debt IF you took all profits from small mom and pop businesses to major corporations.  

Think about that for a moment.

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 11:00 | 3198716 IridiumRebel
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Motherfucking sustainable!

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 11:01 | 3198719 secret_sam
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Reagan proved deficits don't matter, anyway.

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 11:14 | 3198789 toady
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Whenever I hear that one I wonder, who did he prove it to? The American public? An esteemed group of economists? The UN?

Is there a written document, like the constitution or emancipation proclamation, that states in clear language why or how deficits don't matter.

If so, can my lawyers use said document(s) to prove my deficits don't matter?

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 11:39 | 3198901 secret_sam
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He proved it to "history."

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 11:03 | 3198730 BinAround
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Does anyone know if student loans are included in the Federal spending data that creates the deficit?  It looks to be about $100bln of lending in 2012.

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 11:04 | 3198733 luckylongshot
luckylongshot's picture

Does anyone still believe official debt figures?...and this one in particular as it was calculated without including unfunded liabilities. The range of debt estimates goes from the official (partial) $16 Trillion to over $200 Trillion (impartial)...Am I the only one with doubts about official partial figures that overlook unfunded liabilities?

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 11:09 | 3198758 climber
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It is hard to believe that a man is telling the truth when you know that you would lie if you were in his place. - H. L. Mencken

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 11:20 | 3198814 alfbell
alfbell's picture

Oh, we'll make it all the way up to a 350% debt/GDP ratio, or higher. I ain't worried. The status quo will continue for a long long long time. Smooth sailing for years to come.

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 11:21 | 3198822 IridiumRebel
Wed, 01/30/2013 - 11:24 | 3198829 IridiumRebel
IridiumRebel's picture,7340,L-4338995,00.html

Meggido to make this fucking GDP SOAR

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 11:32 | 3198865 azzhatter
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No worries mates, Barry Obuttfuck has it all under control. He's working that gay marriage thing right now

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 11:37 | 3198878 azzhatter
azzhatter's picture

The problem with Santelli is he doesn't realize how devious these pricks are. They care nothing about the future of the country, just keep it sustained until they check out. These fuckers are not looking for a solution to problems, they are looking for ways to run from a problem. 90% of americans have no idea and couldn't care less how devious these fuckers are, just don't cancel dancing with stars or Idol. We are in a fucked up place and I look at my grand children with pity for what they will reap.

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 22:18 | 3201099 StychoKiller
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Buy the li'l nippers some Kruggerands...

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 11:48 | 3198924 alfbell
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The problem is not economics or economists... not politics or politicians... or education or teachers... or capitalism or socialism or cronyism or fascism or totalitarianism or egalitarianism... or sociology and sociologists... or science or scientists... or mathematics or mathematicians... or immorality and crime or criminals... or evil or monsters...

The problem is man's total lack of understanding of the human mind and himself.

THIS is what man has been missing, avoiding, not confronting and failing to place the proper importance on since he's been here.


Wed, 01/30/2013 - 12:03 | 3199006 tahoebumsmith
Wed, 01/30/2013 - 12:22 | 3199072 Curt W
Curt W's picture

Wait the debt has been stuck at $16.432 Trillion for over a month.

They are spending pension money now.

The day they raise the ceiling, that number is going to jump up by several hundred billion.

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 12:32 | 3199114 natronic
natronic's picture

So this story says Debt is 72% of GDP

But really we know it's 103%.  Basically right now you can't even trust trusted news sources because they are getting bad info to write stories.  All the "smart" people can't get a grip on what is going on.  While us stupid uninformed people know exactly what is going on and are buying gold/silver like crazy.  The world will not survive the crash of the dollar.  The US is 5% of world population but 30% of the wealth. 

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 14:51 | 3199586 FSM_47
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Obama is a giant hemorroid  on the body-politic

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 15:08 | 3199666 Me_Myself_and_I
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Hey why don't we just pay off the debt with 16 different trillion dollar coins commissioned from the National Mint (marianas).. using actual platinum recovered from the world trade center site?

That would be super patriotic, and clear up this little mess of the debt, stat.

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 18:11 | 3200447 DowTheorist
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Excessive debt may be finally awakening the bond vigilantes. The BLV (Long-term bond term bond ETF) /GLD ratio is turning bearish, which denotes relatively stronger gold. Here is the vital chart to look at:



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