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Gold Retraces GDP Shock On Correlation Extravaganza

Tyler Durden's picture





 

It would appear this morning's spending and income data (and the fact that US equity markets opened down) was enough for a de-correlated explosion in risk-assets in general. Gold has retraced its post-GDP spike (and Silver is close) but with the USD weaker (thanks to risk-lever of all risk-levers EURUSD) Stocks are surging and bonds tracking along as 10Y breaks back above 2.000% once again. A nicely engineered stop-run to ES 1500 and 10Y 2.00% or real money 'rotation' - you decide... The anti-correlation is typically unsustainable - so who will win today? Stocks lower or gold/oil higher?

Gold and Silver roundtrip from yesterday's GDP...

 

and risk-assets in general decouple today... or was it all enegineered to get ES to run stops at 1500?

 


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Thu, 01/31/2013 - 11:21 | Link to Comment Say What Again
Say What Again's picture

BULLISH

There is no way the Bernank will allow RUT, INDU, etc. to be down for two days in a row.  Therefore, we can conclude that we should buy early today and sell on the close.
That was easy.

Thu, 01/31/2013 - 11:29 | Link to Comment Alpo for Granny
Alpo for Granny's picture

 Before Earl's passing (God rest his soul) he told me that when that young man Benny prints money, that I will be safe because of all the shiny coins in the attic. The bald young man is printing an awful lot of money, but every morning, right after my tea, the line on the silver and gold chart always seems to go down and to the right very abruptly. Granny is getting up there in age now and I am no doubt vitamin deficient from my daily staple of Alpo and my faculties are not what they used to be. Can someone help granny out and explain this? Was Earl (God rest his soul) wrong?

Thu, 01/31/2013 - 11:34 | Link to Comment Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

They can hammer the paper price of gold all they want with their unlimited fiat. Eventually lack of supply will break gold free from the paper price. So no Earl wasn't wrong. Since Earl was a stacker maybe you can upgrade to Fancy Feast or something.

Thu, 01/31/2013 - 11:34 | Link to Comment Alpo for Granny
Alpo for Granny's picture

Thank you good doctor. And just to let you know, my hip feels great now and I will look into Fancy Feast.

Thu, 01/31/2013 - 12:16 | Link to Comment flacon
flacon's picture

I hope these markets burn, muther fucker! I've had just about enough of this "shitty deal" system that I can take! Boy that S&P was one "SHTITTY DEAL"!

Thu, 01/31/2013 - 12:46 | Link to Comment trav777
trav777's picture

at least we know you silverbugz don't beat your wives every day silver doesn't go up because there's no freakin way you could ever get a woman

Thu, 01/31/2013 - 14:19 | Link to Comment strannick
strannick's picture

This coming froming the guy who the other day complained about women being too frosty??

Im going to tell you something your XBox buddies shouldve told you long ago. Your bad luck with the ladies isnt cause ''their too frosty''.

Thu, 01/31/2013 - 16:18 | Link to Comment akak
akak's picture

Trav, your irrational hatred of silver, and silver owners, is beyond Nadleresque --- it is positively pathological.

Now shut the fuck up and go back to your usual shtick: hatin' on the niggers and all your other "racial inferiors", and working on your designs for new and improved gas chambers and crematoria for the racial "Final Solution" of your dreams.

Thu, 01/31/2013 - 11:53 | Link to Comment Pegasus Muse
Pegasus Muse's picture

Granny might want to listen to this.  William Kaye, Founder, Vice Chairman and Senior Managing Director of the Pacific Alliance Group of Companies. 

A most enlightening interview on Gold and Silver in which he says, based on all the paper gold and silver shenanigans, has the potential for "making the biggest short squeeze in any financial instrument in the history of mankind":

http://www.kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Broadcast/Entries/2013/1/30_William_Kaye.html 

Grant Williams@ttmygh tweeted this morning, "A great interview with a VERY smart guy: Bill Kaye on King World News..."

Thu, 01/31/2013 - 14:22 | Link to Comment Pegasus Muse
Pegasus Muse's picture

Another good piece: 

 

Germany Repatriates Its Gold

Mises Daily:Thursday, January 31, 2013 by

---snip ---

In a world flooded by debt, gold is the ultimate safe haven. Central bankers know this better than most people, even if they have to pretend in their day job that such concerns are irrelevant. Does it mean the Eurozone is approaching its end game? I don't think so, but the protagonists are no longer playing softball.”

---snip---

Peter Klein, from the University of Missouri, notes that “Gold is the ultimate long-term inflation hedge, and holding physical gold is more secure than holding legal title to gold stored elsewhere. We don’t know if the Bundesbank’s move is purely symbolic or reflects real concerns, but it’s an important signal nonetheless!” Klein also notes, “Equally interesting is why the US government is not returning the gold all at once, but in stages. Is the US holding fractional reserves?”

Professor Philipp Bagus, a native German teaching at the University of Rey Juan Carlos in Spain, and the author of The Tragedy of the Euro, was also curious: “It is startling that they (the shipments of gold) will last until 2020 in order to bring the gold back. This reinforces the suspicions that the Fed and other central banks have lent gold to bullion banks who have in turn sold the gold depressing its price. To unwind these contracts it will take some time without upsetting the gold market. The Fed needs time to get its gold back. For all we know, it may not be there physically. That is probably the reason it will take until 2020.

On a more fundamental point, Bagus noted, “Of course, this is great news since by repatriating German gold, the importance of gold for monetary purposes is stressed, and it becomes available for any possible monetary reform Germany may want to do during the Euro crisis.”

http://mises.org/daily/6351/Germany-Repatriates-Its-Gold 

Thu, 01/31/2013 - 11:59 | Link to Comment malikai
malikai's picture

I don't know who they are, but the action in gold/silver was completely expected around these parts.

http://blog.quantsig.net/2013/01/31/goldsilver-continued/

Thu, 01/31/2013 - 12:20 | Link to Comment sessinpo
sessinpo's picture

As a question of intellectual debate. If globally things are economically bad, and perhaps to get worse, what will be the industrial demand for gold and silver such as electronics, etc? What will be the demand for jewelry?

 

The same can be asked of oil, btw, which doesn't surprise me that oil is still below $100/barrel and gold is below $2000/oz. I understand holding PM's as a store of value as I hold American Eagles and Maple Leafs as part of my portfolio. Yea, I wish PMs were much higher, but I don't honestly project them to soar until the fiat is killed for a time.

 

So, outside the "money" component of PMs, until fiat is killed, what is the supply situation of PMs in a downturning global economy?

Thu, 01/31/2013 - 13:10 | Link to Comment lasvegaspersona
lasvegaspersona's picture

Supply and demand has little to do with the price of gold. The supply of paper is infinite and the supply of physical is always getting bigger. There is minimal industrial use, but gold is hoarded (it's best use) and so on the physical side the price (of currency) determines whether one sells or continues to hoard.

Jewelry is essentially the same as investment in gold (ie in Indian it gets classified as wearable and it is but the reason for buying is not the same as in the USA.)

Thu, 01/31/2013 - 15:54 | Link to Comment sessinpo
sessinpo's picture

lasvegaspersona:  "Supply and demand has little to do with the price of gold. The supply of paper is infinite and the supply of physical is always getting bigger. There is minimal industrial use, but gold is hoarded (it's best use) and so on the physical side the price (of currency) determines whether one sells or continues to hoard."

 

Comment: Nice try. You didn't answer my question, you danced around it. We were talking physical, which means supply and demand have everything to do with it.

Look at my questions. Why do think I specifically mentioned PHYSICAL use of PMs such is electronics (gold is a good conductor of electricity) or jewelry? Those are PHYSICAL uses in which a company would have to aqcuire PHYSICAL assets of PMs, not paper

 

Supply and Demand ALWAYS is relevant, Just because the supply of gold MAY be getting bigger, that doesn't mean the the supply is rising faster then the demand. And by the way, I am asking these basic assinine questions on purpose to may YOU and others think. I have been in finances and yearss (well over a decade).

 

I have consistently presented logical debate on why PMs will only rise moderately relative to other goods until fiat is killed. My main thesis, that NO ONE, including your post, has refuted or presented a logical counter argument, is this:

As long as debts are denominated in fiat. PMs, will only rise moderately relative to other markets. Why, as aonther thread TD posted that supported my position, he suggest gold was being sold to meet certain margin calls. In other words, to settle debts, domestically and abroad, people, financial institutions, and even governmnents, would sell their gold to settle debts priced in fiat currency. And that is also part of the supply/demand equation so yes, supply/demand is always important. Supply/demand is basic 101 OF ANY MARKET despite it being rare of infinite.

 

 

Thu, 01/31/2013 - 19:24 | Link to Comment sessinpo
sessinpo's picture

Once again.

No reply. Just down arrows.

No logical, reasoned response to my post. You down arrow people are are a part of the liberal 50% of America that is destroying this great nation. So I ask, for that person ( or persons as more down arrows could appear), present yourself. Stop being cowardly.  Refute my post and what I said, what I asked. Debate me.

 

I await.

Thu, 01/31/2013 - 21:56 | Link to Comment RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

Some of us have already learned this lesson.

Thu, 01/31/2013 - 22:03 | Link to Comment akak
akak's picture

 

For those who are touchy about down arrows, just start every post with a quote (you know, the " mark on the tool bar above the box in which you write your comments), and arrowing on your comment will be precluded.  It doesn't even have to be a word --- you can 'quote' an empty line, as I did here.  That might force some of those who just downarrow and run to actually respond with something more than a click of one button.

Notice that this post cannot be up or down-arrowed.

Thu, 01/31/2013 - 14:16 | Link to Comment Blizzard_Esq
Blizzard_Esq's picture

"Eventually lack of supply will break gold free from the paper price."

Oh and the US government just won't seize all the gold then to keep the card game afloat a bit longer to keep supply up? By the way Germany didn't waste any time in 1930's annexing and then invading its neighbors for gold when they started to need it. Would be interesting to see the US Army return to Mexico City or invade Canada a second time. 

Thu, 01/31/2013 - 11:33 | Link to Comment Alpo for Granny
Alpo for Granny's picture

Oh and one more thing. I read an article on the AARP website about the mint having record sales of their pretty silver eagle coins. Does the mint selling out of all of their shiny coins like Earl (God rest his soul) collected cause the line to go down and to the right?

Thu, 01/31/2013 - 11:59 | Link to Comment Al Huxley
Al Huxley's picture

I believe it has to do with the sun rising in NY.  I'm not exactly sure of the science behind it.

Thu, 01/31/2013 - 12:29 | Link to Comment sessinpo
sessinpo's picture

Just about every year, you can buy coins from the US Mint for about a 50% markup ($30 silver coin sold for over $45) that you can get later on from various precious dealers such as Apex at just a $2 dollars over spot. US Mint uses various methods such as "non-circulated" coins to "enhance" their product price. But let's face it, most of us are buying for content value, the metal. These Eagles are not rare collectors coins.

 

I would be happier paying $32 for a 2011 silver coin instead of $45 for a 2013 Eagle just minted. It has the same amount of silver (content).

Thu, 01/31/2013 - 19:40 | Link to Comment sessinpo
sessinpo's picture

LOL. This is a perfect example of what we "real" Americans face today.

 

I presented a  non partisan post. I presented logical and factual information that MOST see. I presented data that would save YOU money. Yet, I get a down arrow, from a liberal (and probably anti American liberal/progressive/liberal).

 

This should be a lesson for the rest of you real American conservative/libertarians of how damaging the liberals are. And how they have infiltrated and indoctrinated many citizens. I go after ANYBODY on CONTENT, not personal attacks unless they first attack me personally. We have a shitload of liberal trolls now on this board that provide no content, no debate and no substance in their posts.

 

Anyway, as of substance. I think that the US Mint data is not a good data to follow. Anyone of knowledge wouldn't buy US mint coinage if their intent is money preservation. Here is why. The US Eagles are not of rare quality. You are paying a 50% markup for nothing as I presented in my last post on this thread.

 

It is 6:36 pm Eastern time US. I openly challenge that person to present themselves and explain why that person gave me a down arrow for the rest of us to see.

 

 

Thu, 01/31/2013 - 22:03 | Link to Comment RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

Not into windmills, thank you for your invitation all the same.

Thu, 01/31/2013 - 11:19 | Link to Comment buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

gold going nowhere fast

Thu, 01/31/2013 - 11:27 | Link to Comment kliguy38
kliguy38's picture

Precisely the message that needs to be sent to maintain CONtrolfidence, and funny we are getting such a lengthy triangle in MANY indices leading into tomorrow......things that go hmmmmmmmmm. Something needs to give.

Thu, 01/31/2013 - 11:32 | Link to Comment buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

One of the problems with gold is that many holders of "paper gold" are not true believers like many at zh. All they care about is a quick flip for a fast buck.

Thu, 01/31/2013 - 11:55 | Link to Comment kliguy38
kliguy38's picture

Brilliant plan by the boyz....find a liquidity sponge to soak the suckers while they can control the price and shuffle the chairs on the Titanic. The peeps high five one another on a dry deck not realizing the play. Suddenly the water swirls around their ankles and they look down......too late.......sharks win again.....and that is exactly what will play out. Everyone thinks they can get out of the boat "in time".

Thu, 01/31/2013 - 12:48 | Link to Comment trav777
trav777's picture

losers with a persecution complex...bet you're a silverbug too eh?

Thu, 01/31/2013 - 22:06 | Link to Comment akak
akak's picture

Why do you hate silver so much, Trav?

I mean, it IS the white metal, after all.

Fri, 02/01/2013 - 02:37 | Link to Comment ItchyBeard
ItchyBeard's picture

Jeeeeeesus

Thu, 01/31/2013 - 12:09 | Link to Comment Meat Hammer
Meat Hammer's picture

You may have heard this a time or two...

 

BTFD!!!!

Thu, 01/31/2013 - 11:33 | Link to Comment Sophist Economicus
Sophist Economicus's picture

Thank God!  One cannot ever have enough at these prices....

Thu, 01/31/2013 - 12:05 | Link to Comment I need more cowbell
I need more cowbell's picture

Oh yes it is; it's going east.

Thu, 01/31/2013 - 13:13 | Link to Comment lasvegaspersona
lasvegaspersona's picture

buzz

mine is not

Thu, 01/31/2013 - 14:36 | Link to Comment AgAu_man
AgAu_man's picture

Here is where Kitco's Jon Nadler ("Needler" in German or Yiddish), needles the gold bugs:  http://www.kitco.com/ind/Nadler/20130125.html

"To top it all off, the perception that the much-feared debt “bomb” and attendant US credit rating downgrade have been (at the very least temporarily) defused, is adding to the woes of the doomsayers out there. Such apprehensions have chipped away at gold’s safe-haven premium really since last fall; it’s just that the perma-bulls have not acknowledged it; then, or now"

What can one say?  Except be pissed at him and the saying:  "Don't fight The Fed!"  They outgun and outlast just anyone.  Sad, but true.  Saying FTFF (Fuck The Fucking Fuckers!) feels good at the moment, but is not what we nee.  We need a GAME-CHANGER.  There needs to be a veritable stampede for PM hard bullion.  Else, everybody is either 'wanking', shilling or 'selling'.  Well, don't just frikkin up/down-arrow.  SAY something (constructive & actionable).

 

 

Thu, 01/31/2013 - 22:09 | Link to Comment akak
akak's picture

 

SAY something (constructive & actionable)

Hang Jon Nadler!

Thu, 01/31/2013 - 11:25 | Link to Comment Orly
Orly's picture

OT but hilarious...posted by Seer on another thread:

Get your own predator drone now!  They're really affordable!

http://www.amazon.com/Maisto-Fresh-Metal-Tailwinds-Endurance/product-reviews/B004JFMOGK/ref=cm_cr_dp_see_all_btm?ie=UTF8&showViewpoints=1&sortBy=bySubmissionDateDescending

Gotta read the comment section.

:D

Thu, 01/31/2013 - 11:50 | Link to Comment Alpo for Granny
Alpo for Granny's picture

Thanks Orly. ZH should throw this up as comic relief tomorrow. Hilarious.

Thu, 01/31/2013 - 16:02 | Link to Comment TN Jed
TN Jed's picture

Doesn't everyone have their own drone by now?  I love mine!

(not my videos but these give you an idea)

http://youtu.be/86qO2WKjMHI

http://youtu.be/AobDcQwueZ4

 

Thu, 01/31/2013 - 11:26 | Link to Comment Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

no shit... gold has ruined the rest of my day...

Thu, 01/31/2013 - 11:30 | Link to Comment Thomas
Thomas's picture

The metals are certainly doing their best to demoralize their supporters.

Thu, 01/31/2013 - 11:37 | Link to Comment Nothing To See Here
Nothing To See Here's picture

For one I totally saw it coming. Been a few times that metals soar after FED annoncements only to waterfall down moments later. Just stay the course, ignore their tactics, know you are right to hold.

Thu, 01/31/2013 - 11:31 | Link to Comment kliguy38
kliguy38's picture

I was in the PM market in the late 70s and it was never this extreme, but it was manipulated then by several players that at least provided some play for the little guys. When gold was eventually crushed in 81 it was thougt the miners would follow but the counterintuitive superspike once again caught the retail peeps out of the trade and the real players raked in their chips. Patience on this trade or just store Alpo my friend

Thu, 01/31/2013 - 11:42 | Link to Comment Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

well, now it's like there's a camera behind my back and every time I buy options, the hole market is going the other way....

If you wanne be a billionaire, just come sit next to me and to the oposite of everything I do....

 

Thu, 01/31/2013 - 12:00 | Link to Comment kliguy38
kliguy38's picture

No.......you're pre-programed and if you are leveraged or if you are in a closing window (options) then you are an even easier target for them unless you can think like them an most peeps cannot get that dark. Mitigate your potential damage by eliminating leverage and time.....they use these against you. Use your only advantage in the paper market which is your ability to sit tight on your trade. You also don't have their disadvantage and that is they need liquidity. Stay out of their traps...AAPL AMZN etc......they're killing fields.

Thu, 01/31/2013 - 12:10 | Link to Comment Meat Hammer
Meat Hammer's picture

I think I'll go see the coin man for his 1% off sale on Kruggerands.

Thu, 01/31/2013 - 11:26 | Link to Comment Lewshine
Lewshine's picture

By "RETRACE" you mean; Hammered once again by the central planners who want to make the stock market your only venue of invesment...Then, I agree.

Thu, 01/31/2013 - 11:25 | Link to Comment Al Huxley
Al Huxley's picture

I now set my watch by the time of day the price of gold crashes.  If those fuckers in NY ever get stuck in traffic or call in sick it's going to mess my schedule up pretty bad.

 

Good to see it's not rigged at all, though.

Thu, 01/31/2013 - 11:28 | Link to Comment ParkAveFlasher
ParkAveFlasher's picture

No worries, the ones who conduct take a helicopter or pontoon plane into work daily from Greenwich to the East River.

Thu, 01/31/2013 - 11:42 | Link to Comment Stuntgirl
Stuntgirl's picture

Seriously, tho...

For me it's lunch-hour time, and when i see it crash, I know my lunchtime's up and back to work.

EVERY DAY

Thu, 01/31/2013 - 11:25 | Link to Comment ParkAveFlasher
ParkAveFlasher's picture

Gold came down 25% from its highs from July '08 to Jan '09.  "Highs" being $1,000/oz or thereabouts. 

What happened after that?

When the SHTF the effect of unwinding paper and selling off assets has a real impact.  The boldest will trade upon that knowledge, no?

The not-as-bold-but-just-as-smart simply BTFD and secretly scout stash locales on the property of their neighbors.

The cowardly wet their pants and vomit. 

Which one are you?

Thu, 01/31/2013 - 11:34 | Link to Comment unrulian
unrulian's picture

i have some land upon which to place stahes, i hope i am your neighbor

Thu, 01/31/2013 - 11:55 | Link to Comment ParkAveFlasher
ParkAveFlasher's picture

I laugh my ass off at those who would fend off nightmares of theft or forced confiscation by buying a safe and bolting it to the basement floor.

1) Nobody's thought of that before.  If it's known that you hold PM, no one will ever suspect that you have a safe in the basement or embedded in an internal wall.  /sarc off 

2) If say, the NYPD wanted a clue as to what POF was up to, they can see that I've purchased a safe via CC records or by any kind of internet tap if say I bought a safe on Amazon.  I should say that while the grunt NYC cop "ain't too smart", the bloodhounds that find the easter eggs and honey pots are extremely able and fit and trained to hunt men and their valuables, and well-versed in how men hide their valuables.

3) If you scout correctly, and think, and calculate, you will understand that the best place to hide anything is on other people's property. 

I'm down with OPP. 

Thu, 01/31/2013 - 12:20 | Link to Comment Meat Hammer
Meat Hammer's picture

Or you buy the safe to store some kinda-valuable stuff in to throw the dogs off of the trail.  

"Open it, officer!  See?  Just grandma's old cheap jewelry, passports, and an old .22 revolver - which I'll let you have because I don't believe in guns - in the safe that grandma left me when she died."

Just don't check the cereal boxes.

Or so I've heard

Thu, 01/31/2013 - 21:35 | Link to Comment WmMcK
WmMcK's picture

1) Buy a safe for cash, not on-line or with a CC (same with PM's).

2) Keep your passport close at hand.

2) Fill the safe with nickles and the other items Meat Hammer recommends.

3) Use PVC to "store" (some) of the PM's in various locations/jursdictions.

4) Go boating.

Thu, 01/31/2013 - 19:53 | Link to Comment sessinpo
sessinpo's picture

ParkAve:   "3) If you scout correctly, and think, and calculate, you will understand that the best place to hide anything is on other people's property."

 

Comment:

The best place to hide ANY valuable is to not let anyone know you have it in the first place. That includes guns and ammo. 22LR has gone up over 300% in just a month. That beats PMs gains in over the last decade.

 

I bought and stored 308 winchester for the last 3 years and that investment has tripled in the last month. I sold a small portion to cover all my previous ammunition costs. Yes, I banked again! Unfortunately, I didn't see the ammo shortage inn 22LR so I'm kicking myself in the ass for that. But my current plans are to continue buying 308 and start storing 22 LR to profit again. When the SHTF, those bullets will be priceless.

Think about it. You could be jobless and trying to feed your family and you need ammo to hunt. You need ammo to fight a corrupt government. You need ammo to protect you family and the PMs you have.

 

Well, I got it as well as the PMs.

Thu, 01/31/2013 - 11:37 | Link to Comment Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

I think the market is overwhelming the CBs and they are starting to get frustrated with gold.  They have really been trying hard to control PMs while they attempt a controlled demolition of the USD.  Gotta be long gold here.

Thu, 01/31/2013 - 11:59 | Link to Comment rqb1
rqb1's picture

I disagree, short term be careful with au, dont go out on margin to buy.   Long term you are right.

Thu, 01/31/2013 - 12:44 | Link to Comment Mugatu
Mugatu's picture

A mini-purge that takes gold down below $1500 is needed to knock all the trend following gold newbies off the bull wagon.  Only then will we see gold finally set up for new highs.  I am waiting for lower prices before I buy more.  I want to see blood so I can swoop in for more at much better prices.  Last year everyone was so bullish and sure enough there were no new buyers to propel gold higher.  

A few years ago, you had to really search to find any new commentary on the daily Gold market action.  Now CNBC, Bloomberg, and even local broadcasts routinely have features on Gold. As this worthless S&P equities market marches higher into tulip bulb territory, the gold newbies will abandon real wealth of Gold in favor of worthless paper in their endless chase for immediate gratification.  Only then will Gold be set up for the next move.  

Thu, 01/31/2013 - 15:37 | Link to Comment Lore
Lore's picture

I wonder if we're finally breaking through the usual dynamic (drive it down / discredit the debasement story / draw public attention elsewhere). Folks were lined up yesterday in front of the most disreputable sleazebag dealer in my town.  It even got mention in local radio.  It's the same with bigger names. Bigger vendor out of Vancouver (bordergold) was interviewed a few days ago and said he's never seen it so busy in his career.

The German repatriation seems to be flipping a switch in people's minds in a way that other background stories did not.  People listen when Jerries come knocking.  THERE'S A REASON WHY THE DELEGATES IN NEW YORK WERE TURNED AWAY LAST FALL. 

Of course, it doesn't hurt that the debt ceiling is about to be "suspended."  That alone might be sufficient for a bottom.  Even the most devout TV-watching lout has trouble reconciling Trillion-plus deficits with the "recovery" meme. 

The anti-PM propaganda has actually been fairly quiet. When it ramps up, the market will go bananas. 

Thu, 01/31/2013 - 15:56 | Link to Comment TotalCarp
TotalCarp's picture

Mugatu you are spot on. I have been saying same exact thing for a few weeks here. Not that i am a technician but the chart looks cartoonishly weak. If 1650 breaks decisively look out below. Too many people's uncles bot paper gold last few months. Needs a good old wash out.

I also suspect that some of the buying CBs are in fact not as strong "hands" as people here believe. Everyone was laughing when bank of israel was buying Apple stock not so long ago at the top.. Now all these dog and pony CBs are buying gold. Its not a bulish sign in my very humble view. Watch the levels. Watch the down trend. It will push down to 1650 support by end of march so this tug of war will be decided very soon.

Thu, 01/31/2013 - 18:06 | Link to Comment Mugatu
Mugatu's picture

Carp,

Personally, I am looking at 1400-1500 as a possible bounce point.  Average Joe every week looks at his equities going up and his gold going down and they are starting to liquidate their metals as a result.  This liquidation may go on until Summer.  I took a position in DUST which is a 3x inverse Bear ETF on gold mining stocks about a month ago and it has been a huge winner.  It has more than offset my losses in physical gold. 

Thu, 01/31/2013 - 11:28 | Link to Comment Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

They can hammer gold and silver all they want. I will keep buying when ever I have the opportunity.

Thu, 01/31/2013 - 11:28 | Link to Comment casaananda
casaananda's picture

I want to scream. The US has gone full retard. WHEN will PM's finally get a serious big? When? 

Thu, 01/31/2013 - 11:31 | Link to Comment ParkAveFlasher
ParkAveFlasher's picture

If you are screaming at $1650, you will shit your pants at $1500. 

Same with silver. 

Thu, 01/31/2013 - 11:37 | Link to Comment buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

right on, people who say btfgd when it is -1% crack me up.

Thu, 01/31/2013 - 15:18 | Link to Comment Anasteus
Anasteus's picture

Hope, not anytime soon. If it really gets a serious big you'll have no more opportunity to afford any.

Frankly, I appreciate the suppression. The hidden message, though unintended, is 'go people and buy gold and silver as long as we're able to withstand the pressure from the BRICKS and most likely from our Western central banks too'. I can't fully grasp the fears over the prices; everyone who had been accumulating till 2011 is in positive balance and those who joined later just simply have to wait. One year is literally nothing as regards investment like precious metals. The suppression, by definition, demonstrates the intrinsic value of metals that must be constantly masked and carefully taken care of not to manifestly outperform e.g. stocks. Furthermore, it also guarantees moderate growth without bubbles. What else would one wish?

Gold and silver are not intended for short-term speculative purposes but for long-term hedging. While short-term situation is intentionally confusing the long-term prospects are crystal clear.

Thu, 01/31/2013 - 11:32 | Link to Comment Confundido
Confundido's picture

If this is a guide to what is going to happen.....(official, manipulated price vs. market price of the USD vs. Argentine peso): http://public.tableausoftware.com/shared/5CCM4QJWX

Thu, 01/31/2013 - 11:35 | Link to Comment kaa1016
kaa1016's picture

GLD is clinging to that 100 week moving average. There is huge support right here. It hasn't closed below that level since the week of 12/5/2008 when it closed at 74.52. If it closes under that, look out below in the near to intermediate term.

Thu, 01/31/2013 - 11:41 | Link to Comment Canadian Dirtlump
Canadian Dirtlump's picture

that's more like it.. much like a battered wife, I missed my morning shit kicking in silver yesterday.

 

Payday is tomorrow so I'll have to get dome new freedom girls, and add to the slave queen stack.

 

I assume the positive GDP, sound fiscal and monetary policies, prudent spending, low jobless claims are causing this logical correction. lol.

 

Any mongoloid who thinks there is anything natural about a singular or small number of sellers dumpinbg massive positions without regard to profit / limiting loss is as savvy as a pile of shit with 2 eyeballs.

Thu, 01/31/2013 - 11:43 | Link to Comment adr
adr's picture

With the previous record in sight, all will be suspended just to break the mark. Once the record top is broken, then we'll get some clarity.

Obama wants it for his legacy, all the financial pundits want it for the news story, te hedge funds want it for the hope the bag holder will show up.

It is like a pitcher a few outs from a perfect game. Sure the guys coming up to bat want to smack a home run, but in their mind they also want to strike out to see a perfect game, to be a part of it.

The market is pure bullshit but nobody that makes their living off of it cares. They are making money. The DOW, S&P, and Nasdaq should be on ESPN. A new American sport for the masses to tune in. CNBC is already a parody of SportsCenter.

Thu, 01/31/2013 - 11:56 | Link to Comment oddjob
oddjob's picture

What kind of putz wants to be the last out of a no-hitter?

Thu, 01/31/2013 - 13:34 | Link to Comment Bam_Man
Bam_Man's picture

Many sports fans can tell you who made the last out in Don Larsen's perfect game. If not for that, nobody would have a clue as to who Dale Mitchell was.

Thu, 01/31/2013 - 14:09 | Link to Comment oddjob
oddjob's picture

Yeah, i am sure he was beaming.

Thu, 01/31/2013 - 21:24 | Link to Comment WmMcK
WmMcK's picture

He was very good player --
especially for the Indians in '48 and '54.
He retired at the end of the '56 WS.
He did not strike out often.
Larsen's last pitch to him was a ball.
That was over 56 years ago and most people don't have a clue about much more important things than who he was.

Thu, 01/31/2013 - 11:48 | Link to Comment Buzzworthy
Buzzworthy's picture

PAPER Gold has retraced its post-GDP spike. Fixed it for you, Tyler.

Ignore the paper price.  The KITCO reported numbers have ZERO bearing on the true value of physical gold.  The sooner goldbuggerers realize this the sooner they will rest easy when the KITCO reported spot numbers go to zero, as they will.

Thu, 01/31/2013 - 12:38 | Link to Comment Mi Naem
Mi Naem's picture

Serious question:

What's wrong with Kitco's numbers?  Some detail, or at least pointing me to it, would be appreciated. 

Also, where do you get your PM and other commodity market value numbers? 

Thu, 01/31/2013 - 13:09 | Link to Comment Lewshine
Lewshine's picture

Hey Buzz,

Unless you can explain what you just posted, keep that stupid shit to yourself!! Paper pricing?? I liken your remark to saying: The media tells lies about the economy, the Fed does the same - Therefore, your short position in stocks is just fine and only a fool would pay attention to the 25% move in SPY to the upside, because it was based on a lie.

As long as "the majority" of human beings use the paper price as "the indicator" of trade price - IT REMAINS THE PRICE!!

If the paper price of gold went to 5.00 it would fuck up your day real good, regardless of what you want us all to believe about your physical holdings price interpretation!

Thu, 01/31/2013 - 15:42 | Link to Comment Lore
Lore's picture

Lew - All he's doing is remembering the lessons of history. There comes a time when the paper price doesn't matter anymore. Your approval is not prerequisite.

Thu, 01/31/2013 - 18:17 | Link to Comment Mugatu
Mugatu's picture

Like it or not, when you buy or sell physical the price of gold futures, spot gold, and other gold derivitative are all linked together. Ignore one and you will end up wearing your ass for a hat.

Thu, 01/31/2013 - 11:47 | Link to Comment Mad Mohel
Mad Mohel's picture

Forcing a beach ball under water. Every time gold floats up they have to brute force it back down. One time they're going to blow an O-ring doing all that pushing. Fuck you Bernanke, enjoy your anal prolapse.

Thu, 01/31/2013 - 11:52 | Link to Comment joego1
joego1's picture

PMs go up when first nuke or dirty bomb lands in middle east.

Thu, 01/31/2013 - 22:11 | Link to Comment RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

...or New York.

Thu, 01/31/2013 - 12:08 | Link to Comment markar
markar's picture

Harvey Organ predicted this exact move after yesterdays surge in AU & AG. Like clockwork, they never allow 2 up days in a row.

Thu, 01/31/2013 - 12:10 | Link to Comment azzhatter
azzhatter's picture

I'm very worried, I increased my weekly silver eagle buys this week. Next week I think I'll increase some more.

Thu, 01/31/2013 - 13:09 | Link to Comment douglas
douglas's picture

I disagree with your investment strategy, I think you need to diversify your portfolio a bit... I suggest some Canadian SML´s or Austrian Silver Philharmonics ;)

Thu, 01/31/2013 - 12:26 | Link to Comment _underscore
_underscore's picture

Each day more & more gold/silver leaves the room, unable to be leveraged,leased or shorted again. Each day more finds itself stashed away behind vaults with writing on that you or I can't read, or under floorboards in Montana, Mumbai & Munich. Each day a bit less to play paper games with. I genuinley love this, I bit my lip yesterday & thought a good opportunity had been lost with the gap up post-GDP print/ FOMC minutes, let's hope the reprieve continues for a while.

Thu, 01/31/2013 - 12:39 | Link to Comment TrumpXVI
TrumpXVI's picture

Bullish!

If there's a choice between stocks lower or gold higher, gold will grudgingly be allowed to leak a little bit higher along with stocks; for abso-fucking-lootely sure stocks won't be allowed to go lower.

Thu, 01/31/2013 - 13:02 | Link to Comment douglas
douglas's picture

I always worry when the price of gold/silver goes up that this is finally the ¨Big One¨.  While I´ve recently switched from Gold to Silver, the truth is that everytime it goes back down I breath a sigh of relief because it just gives me more time to increase my inventory.  I wish this game (Naked Shorting) would go on for a long long time before finally (inevitably) exploding - so that my PM horde would ensure that my family was covered for many generations to come.  Sadly, due to the quickly deteriorating economics (unsustainable global debt) I believe the end is near...

Thu, 01/31/2013 - 13:14 | Link to Comment Der Wille Zur Macht
Der Wille Zur Macht's picture

Recommendations for online resources on starting investments in PMs and physically-backed ETFs? I'm poor, young, and a complete noob. Thanks!

Thu, 01/31/2013 - 13:25 | Link to Comment adamas
adamas's picture

rule number 1. NEVER TRY TO USE LEVERAGE OR YOU WILL BE POORER.

2. DO NOT BUY ETF'S THEY STINK

3) BUY GOLD/SILVER COINS WITH THE MINIMUM PREMIUM OVER SPOT YOU CAN FIND.

4)BURY THEM .

5)BUY MORE IF/WHEN YOU CAN AFFORD MORE.

6)WASH , RINSE, REPEAT UNTIL GOLD IS REMONETIZED.

Thu, 01/31/2013 - 14:39 | Link to Comment Der Wille Zur Macht
Der Wille Zur Macht's picture

Thanks, I'll look into buying actual coins. The good news is I've inherited quite a few old liberty silver dollars from my grandfather. Any websites/stores you wanna direct me to?

Thu, 01/31/2013 - 21:13 | Link to Comment WmMcK
WmMcK's picture

Recommend searching out a few Local Coin Shops, maybe in a few different locales. Pay cash and avoid leaving trails on the web for small < 10k transactions. I'm sure others will be glad to suggest their favorite on-line options.

Thu, 01/31/2013 - 14:32 | Link to Comment Conax
Conax's picture

So when do we go for the CFTC with some head cages and a sack of starving rats?

Cage over the head, rat tossed in, hilarity ensues.

Thu, 01/31/2013 - 14:48 | Link to Comment orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

We got our bounce off $1700 Gold.

We should be heading much lower very soon.

http://bullandbearmash.com/chart/gold-weekly-falls-gold-bugs-index-tanks/

When the US Dollar rises (yes, I know, not a popular comment), Gold will fall faster.

Thu, 01/31/2013 - 15:11 | Link to Comment TWSceptic
TWSceptic's picture

The gold price rarely does what most people think it will do. Last year everyone was expecting $2000-$2500 by the end of 2012 and beginning of 2013. That was an indicator that this probably wasn't going to happen. Short term gold price movements are hard to predict. Too many factors potentially infuence the price. All we know is that the long term trend is up. Why? Because fiat is dying.

The only thing people need to worry about is what is a good time to buy. For that you just have to look at how bearish everyone becomes. If you look at predictions right now you'll notice most lowered their price estimate for 2013. That's actually a bullish indicator. I'm not saying that it means gold will definitely go much higher in 2013, but it likely means that we're close to a bottom and it may be an excellent time to add to positions, especially if you own euros.

It's unlikely that the US dollar will rise against gold, it may rise against other currencies like the yen.

Thu, 01/31/2013 - 17:08 | Link to Comment jimmyjames
jimmyjames's picture

If you look at predictions right now you'll notice most lowered their price estimate for 2013. That's actually a bullish indicator. I'm not saying that it means gold will definitely go much higher in 2013, but it likely means that we're close to a bottom and it may be an excellent time to add to positions, especially if you own euros.

 

***************

It's getting bearish out there-usually a turning point-

http://www.acting-man.com/blog/media/2013/01/HGNSI.gif

Thu, 01/31/2013 - 22:15 | Link to Comment RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

Did you recall the good ole days here on ZH when gold was breaking $1,000? 

It was great fun.   It's all noise.

Thu, 01/31/2013 - 15:25 | Link to Comment akak
akak's picture

Orangegeek = Jon Nadler

 

The only thing "heading much lower very soon" is the US dollar, and fiat currencies in general.  And you can take that to the bank (or on second thought, don't).

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!