• Tim Knight from...
    04/28/2016 - 00:27
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  • Tim Knight from...
    04/28/2016 - 00:27
    I was expecting a few boring candidate statements of the U.S. Senate - AKA the World's Most Exclusive Club - but, boy, was I wrong. Just take a look at some of these gems.

Guest Post: Why China Is Holding All That Debt

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Via John Aziz of Azizonomics blog,

What does it mean that China is making a lot of noise about the Federal Reserve’s loose monetary policy?

 Via Reuters:

A senior Chinese official said on Friday that the United States should cut back on printing money to stimulate its economy if the world is to have confidence in the dollar.

 

Asked whether he was worried about the dollar, the chairman of China’s sovereign wealth fund, the China Investment Corporation, Jin Liqun, told the World Economic Forum in Davos: “I am a little bit worried.”

 

“There will be no winners in currency wars. But it is important for a central bank that the money goes to the right place,” Li said.

At first glance, this seems like pretty absurd stuff. Are we really expected to believe that China didn’t know that the Federal Reserve could just print up a shit-tonne of money for whatever reason it likes? Are we really expected to believe that China didn’t know that given a severe economic recession that Ben Bernanke would throw trillions and trillions of dollars new money at the problem? On the surface, it would seem like the Chinese government has shot itself in the foot by holding trillions and trillions of dollars and debt instruments denominated in a currency that can be easily depreciated. If they wanted hard assets, they should have bought hard assets.

As John Maynard Keynes famously said:

The old saying holds. Owe your banker £1000 and you are at his mercy; owe him £1 million and the position is reversed.

But I think Keynes is wrong. I don’t think China’s goal in the international currency game was ever to accumulate a Scrooge McDuck-style hoard of American currency. I think that that was a side-effect of their bigger Mercantilist geopolitical strategy. So China’s big pile of cash is not really the issue.

Scrooge-McDuck

 

It is often said that China is a currency manipulator. But it is too often assumed that China’s sole goal in its currency operations is to create growth and employment for China’s huge population. There is a greater phenomenon — by becoming the key global manufacturing hub for a huge array of resources, components and finished goods, China has really rendered the rest of the world that dependent on the flow of goods out of China. If for any reason any nation decided to attack China, they would in effect be attacking themselves, as they would be cutting off the free flow of goods and components essential to the function of a modern economy. China as a global trade hub — now producing 20% of global manufacturing output, and having a monopoly in key resources and components — has become, in a way, too big to fail. This means that at least in the near future China has a lot of leverage.

So we must correct Keynes’ statement. Owe your banker £1000 and you are at his mercy; owe him £1 million and the position is reversed; owe him £1 trillion, and become dependent on his manufacturing output, and the position is reversed again.

The currency war, of course, started a long time ago, and the trajectory for the Asian economies and particularly China is now diversifying out of holding predominantly dollar-denominated assets. The BRICs and particularly China have gone to great length to set up the basis of a new reserve currency system.

But getting out of the old reserve currency system and setting up a new one is really a side story to China’s real goal, which appears to have always been that of becoming a global trade hub, and gaining a monopoly on critical resources and components.

Whether China can successfully consolidate its newfound power base, or whether the Chinese system will soon collapse due to overcentralisation and mismanagement remains to be seen.

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Thu, 01/31/2013 - 16:01 | 3203617 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

China doesn't give a FF anymore... They LOVE the 'PM' price suppression [while they still own the franchise to sell trinkets for joobux]...

~~~

Bring it!

Thu, 01/31/2013 - 16:02 | 3203633 kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

I've always loved Scrooge.  The last few years have taught me why.

Thu, 01/31/2013 - 16:09 | 3203675 Manthong
Manthong's picture

Looks like ol' Scrooge has about the right mix of hard pack and artificial to ski on.

Thu, 01/31/2013 - 16:23 | 3203735 economics9698
economics9698's picture

The Chinese peasants are getting restless with that mercantilism shit. 

The Chinese government has recognized that “oh shit” moment when they realized the paper they are holding is a ticking time bomb.

So what is new?

It explodes just as well in China as it does in Europe.  Just because they are a modern fascist country does not change anything. 

Thu, 01/31/2013 - 16:25 | 3203753 Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

It explodes just as well in China as it does in Europe.  Just because they are a modern fascist country does not change anything.

I'm glad you realize that the Chinese Govt isn't Communist....it actually maybe the worst run "communist" govt run in the history of forever.

China is "State Corportism", not Communist.......and all corporations go bust at some point.

So will China.

Thu, 01/31/2013 - 17:00 | 3203888 Enslavethechild...
EnslavethechildrenforBen's picture

No one is dependant on China for anything.

Aziz has just been smoking too much pot lately.

Thu, 01/31/2013 - 17:08 | 3203945 aka Gil
aka Gil's picture

What about rare earth metals?

And it's nearly impossible for a self-directed adult to smoke too much pot.

Thu, 01/31/2013 - 17:24 | 3203991 Enslavethechild...
EnslavethechildrenforBen's picture

That is why he said newly printed cash should go to the right place, he was warning the other central bankers that he is going to put it into Gold, Silver and Palladium and can start printing his new bills with nano-gold particles imbedded in their fibers any time he feels like.

jk about the pot, i'm pretty sure aziz does mushrooms

Thu, 01/31/2013 - 17:21 | 3203992 Random
Random's picture

I hate those fuckers that go with the pot "insult". I guess they never tried it and are just talking out of their asses.

Thu, 01/31/2013 - 17:27 | 3204010 Enslavethechild...
EnslavethechildrenforBen's picture

You don't need to smoke pot to notice that the stoners drive around all day with their emergency brakes on LOL.

Thu, 01/31/2013 - 18:11 | 3204143 oddjob
oddjob's picture

says the guy on prescription drugs using his iphone and sipping starbux while driving.

Thu, 01/31/2013 - 18:42 | 3204225 Enslavethechild...
EnslavethechildrenforBen's picture

 being accused of owning an iphone is insulting!

Thu, 01/31/2013 - 17:33 | 3204018 unrulian
unrulian's picture

tried it many times...inhaled...never liked it...pot smoking employees and friends tend to be the laziest pieces of shit and long weekenders. in my opinion not just physically lazy but mentally lazy; answering all questions about their habits with ..open your mind or you don't know you've never tried it...weak argument

Thu, 01/31/2013 - 17:46 | 3204059 Random
Random's picture

I'll let you in on a secret: is not due to weed, they were/are lazy without it also. As of never tried it, well that is true, you talk about something without knowing it, hear-say, isn't that even weaker?

Thu, 01/31/2013 - 21:37 | 3204731 unrulian
unrulian's picture

Are you high? if you have enough ambition to read it again, i said, tried it many times...common man...open your mind.

Thu, 01/31/2013 - 18:37 | 3204214 blindfaith
blindfaith's picture

Homework is always a good idea.

 

There is nothing "rare" about rare earth metals.  What is rare is the ability to mine them cheaply, safely, and 'legally' (meaning within enviromental laws of a nation, not just the USA).  You figure out how to get them up off the ocean floor and you will own China.

Thu, 01/31/2013 - 17:08 | 3203915 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

1. Bob has tons of my IOUs. 2. Bob has them because he gave me lots of things 3. Bob trusts me, but do I trust Bob? 4. Perhaps the only reason he collects my IOUs is because he does not want me to hit him. 5. Damn, I can't hit him, I still want him to give lots of hings. 6. Ah, he must be a fool to trust me and my spendthrift wife even more. 7. Anyway, I hope Bob breaks a leg while delivering my new things. 8. Bound to happen, the way Bob overworks himself. 9. Does him right, the bastard overachiever. 10. How I hate when a poor guy fights tooth and nail to achieve middle class status

Thu, 01/31/2013 - 18:18 | 3204166 Gazooks
Gazooks's picture

Bob's doin your spendthrift wife

Thu, 01/31/2013 - 17:57 | 3204108 SWRichmond
SWRichmond's picture

"If for any reason any nation decided to attack China, they would in effect be attacking themselves, as they would be cutting off the free flow of goods and components essential to the function of a modern economy."

Just flat wrong. One major reason for American global dominance post WW2 was the fact that we had geared up to produce massively for the war, and all of that production was re-tooled for consumer goods. Plus the fact that the rest of the world's productive capacity had been flattened.

Now of course, the US has voluntarily flattened our own productive capacity through the looting process known as "financialization", the credit bubble increasing our craving for (cheap) useless consumerist Chinese junk. Everyone here is well acquainted with the forex / trade balance / debt mechanisms that swirl around mercantilism. But if we flattened China, or even just closed her ports (easy), that part of the problem at least would be solved. There is plenty of excess capacity elsewhere.

Always remember, submarines are weapons of denial.

Thu, 01/31/2013 - 20:15 | 3204502 JeffB
JeffB's picture

I wonder if they ever considered our currency as a weapon of war.

If they started dumping $$ it would kick off some inflation... which would lead to higher interest rates (or hyper inflation).

That would cause some pain for U.S. & world citizens. If they dumped a lot pretty fast, it could potentially destabilize our economy in a very serious way.

Of course we made the ticking time bomb we're sitting on. Unfortunately, we've also given them the trigger for setting it off in exchange for all those trinkets.

 

Thu, 01/31/2013 - 21:43 | 3204755 FreeMktFisherMN
FreeMktFisherMN's picture

Exactly. All those clowns who tout the notion that 'it's their loss' for giving us goods for our paper don't realize that those dollars we exported can come right back. The Chinese govt is corrupt obviously, but the bottom line is they are productive. They definitely build a lot of unwarranted things like ghost cities to spur GDP, which is one example why GDP doesn't tell of the valuable output (there is no way to aggregate data and get some 'national' output anyway, and I hate all these STATISTics) but they are producing things others are consuming, causing others to become debt slaves, and they get more and more leverage. The longer they can go on foregoing consuming their own productivity, the more leverage they'll have. Mercantilism is pure rent-seeking statism, but the bottom line is they are a creditor nation, and they are smart to be buying PMs and commodities, and we keep pissing them off by imposing sanctions on Iran, their main oil partner, and they don't need USD as they can trade grains and gold/barter for oil. The Japanese made the mistake of buying our debt, too, but they can cash those out as they are elderly and now are running deficits and send a tsunami of USD to our shores. 

Bottom line is prices are already going up way more than the govt would have us believe, but the prices will be skyrocketing as markets eventually impose discipline (even the Asians aren't buying our debt as much; Fed is buying 90% of Treasuries). The inflation and govt suffocating business  also has distorted the economy and not allowed us to have the industrial revolution we need to restore the economy to one predicated on savings and production.   So while obviously the Chinese middle class still lacks efficacy and freedom to pursue enterprise uninhibited, they are the savers, and it is not 'their loss' and that's it for trading their sweat and tears for our paper, because they continue to hold the cards, and it sounds like the conversion to real items of value is going on anyway, with their being known as buyers of PMs. It will be a race to hard assets, and they seem to have a head start.

Thu, 01/31/2013 - 16:26 | 3203750 Lohn Jocke
Lohn Jocke's picture

Powder>Paper

Thu, 01/31/2013 - 16:02 | 3203635 CPL
CPL's picture

That stops as soon as they have enough gold to feel comfortable.  With the sabre rattling, they are almost at that point.  

Thu, 01/31/2013 - 16:07 | 3203656 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

Frankly ~ I'm not sure 'when' it stops...

~~~

Put it this way... There are a lot of "STACKERS" here on ZH [who suck at boating]... Is anyone EVER 'satisfied'? [given the ongoing progression of events]?...

Thu, 01/31/2013 - 16:10 | 3203669 kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

Damn good thing we can swim;)

Thu, 01/31/2013 - 16:12 | 3203680 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

I'll stop at 'dogpaddling'... But it's the EFFORT that counts...

Thu, 01/31/2013 - 17:48 | 3204065 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

One can never have enough gold as it has infinite marginal utility.  Easy stuff.

Thu, 01/31/2013 - 18:48 | 3204252 AlaricBalth
AlaricBalth's picture

Always enjoy DoChen's musings. Thanks for the link Rocky.

Thu, 01/31/2013 - 19:40 | 3204400 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

He's got one fresh out now: http://tinyurl.com/ayvptbw

Thu, 01/31/2013 - 16:02 | 3203639 spinone
spinone's picture

China = Honey Badger

Thu, 01/31/2013 - 16:06 | 3203643 nope-1004
nope-1004's picture

China may be a "hub for international trading", but the fact of the matter is that the low wages and substandard products they make (fucking garbage!!!) is the reason why my fridge only last 3 years, my dishwasher constantly plugs up, and my 7/16" wrench is actually 11mm.

Cheap stuff is cheap for a reason.  Dumbing down the world based on price for goods has created the illusion that the US is "smarter than that and has a more evolved economy with less labor".  Problem is that now "junk" passes as product.

I can go to a dump and buy garbage for less than China can make it, so I fail to see how the world got ahead by moving all manufacturing to China and dumbing down quality for price.

 

Thu, 01/31/2013 - 16:10 | 3203672 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

my only question would be... WHAT IN THE WORLD would you EVER need a 7/16 or 11 mm wrench for, [when you could just buy a bitcoin mining card for your computer & all your worries would be solved]?...

Thu, 01/31/2013 - 16:12 | 3203693 nope-1004
nope-1004's picture

1/4" x 20 bolt on my garbage fridge require a 7/16" wrench.  I wouldn't need the wrench if I didn't have to fix the junk we are forced to buy from China.

 

Thu, 01/31/2013 - 17:50 | 3204080 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

The point is, you toss it and buy another because it's so cheap.   My dad used to fix small appliances as a side-job when I was kid in the 1960s.   Toasters, mixers, electric drills and other stuff. Today you just about can't disassemble one without totally destroying it.  They aren't made to be fixed.  Can't even find discrete parts for most of this stuff.

Thu, 01/31/2013 - 18:30 | 3204200 Raymond Reason
Raymond Reason's picture

Shoes are another example.  Absolute crap. In many 2nd world countries, it's common to see shoe repair, because their shoes are worth fixing. 

Thu, 01/31/2013 - 20:21 | 3204516 JeffB
JeffB's picture

The parts often cost more than buying a new replacement.

Fri, 02/01/2013 - 19:35 | 3207819 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

The handyman's other secret weapon (the internet!):

http://servicenet.blackanddecker.com/

http://www.ereplacements.com/

 

Thu, 01/31/2013 - 16:16 | 3203713 Ahmeexnal
Ahmeexnal's picture

I'll trade you a 2TB hard drive for its weight in gold. You can store a gazillion bitcoins on that 2TB drive!
You'll be rich, bitch!

Thu, 01/31/2013 - 16:26 | 3203742 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

lol ~ I'll even stoop for a faraday cage & a 20 gallon copper still with no leaks...

Thu, 01/31/2013 - 16:25 | 3203751 Orly
Orly's picture

Oh, my God.

Are you even serious?

Thu, 01/31/2013 - 16:47 | 3203834 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

ZOMG (a hat tip to Trav)...

~~~

Look!... Now it's 'morphing' into GOLD vs. BITCOINS... Shalom Bernanke just breathed a heavy sigh of relief... ror

Thu, 01/31/2013 - 16:46 | 3203841 knowless
knowless's picture

i don't think he is.

Thu, 01/31/2013 - 16:54 | 3203875 Orly
Orly's picture

I sure hope not.

What does Trav777 (TM) to ZOMG?

Thu, 01/31/2013 - 17:03 | 3203913 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

I'm a simple [photographic memory] type fool... Digging back into the basement library for microfiche to support my evidence ISN'T my idea of a good time... I pay 'cutie pie' CO-EDs to do that sort of work for me...

Thu, 01/31/2013 - 17:40 | 3204046 Orly
Orly's picture

I have no idea what you're babbling about.  I am certain it is some vulgar statement that only you and your mother could understand.

Ciao.

Thu, 01/31/2013 - 17:47 | 3204063 maskone909
maskone909's picture

gotta log into my onion browser and fire up my silk road account so that i can score some more heroin from my dealer. tottally encrypted and secure of course. SHIZZAMMMM. wait i forgot i promised the wife i would go to costco and purchase those coffins they so conveniently display at the exit.. talk about bargains!

Thu, 01/31/2013 - 22:59 | 3204942 Half_A_Billion_...
Half_A_Billion_Hollow_Points's picture

 

 

 

AWESOME; we have moved from "first they ignore you" to "then they laugh at you" in BITCOIN.

 

MEANWHILE, bitcoin's has risen around 50% in JANUARY alone!  It's now trading around $20.00.  

 

When it passes the price of silver later this year, there will be a lot of butthurt from these telletubies. 

Thu, 01/31/2013 - 22:58 | 3204936 Half_A_Billion_...
Half_A_Billion_Hollow_Points's picture

AWESOME; we have moved from "first they ignore you" to "then they laugh at you" in BITCOIN.

 

MEANWHILE, bitcoin's has risen around 50% in JANUARY alone!

Thu, 01/31/2013 - 16:10 | 3203678 jimijon
jimijon's picture

That is the effect of the inflation tax. Quality and quantity are always shifting lower.

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!