Jobless Claims Jump Most Since Sandy, Now Flat For 13 Months

Tyler Durden's picture

While the popular meme is that jobless claims have been indicating an albeit modestly growing economy, it would appear that facts simply do not reflect that reality. Jobless claims surged this week, missing expectations by the most since Sandy as seasonal affectations are in the rear-view mirror. For 13 months, we have meandered around a flat-line initial claims number in the 365k range - and we remain there. What is most troubling about this total catastrophe that occurred in Emergency Unemployment Compensation. After last week's record-breaking plunge of over 350k, this week saw a surge of over 418k added to the EUC rolls - the biggest 2-week jump in two months. The noise in this data remains impressive and yet it is the correlated macro data that appears to be at the heart of so many people's belief in the equity market's strength...

From last week's impressive statistical print - there was only one state that saw claims rise...Florida:

The largest increases in initial claims for the week ending January 19 were in Florida (+1,157), Arizona (+295), and Vermont (+77), while the largest decreases were in Pennsylvania (-12,625), Texas (-10,448), North Carolina (-9,287), New York (-7,379), and Indiana (-6,069).

Initial claims surged, recovering last week's improvements...and are flatline for 13 months...

 

Which appears to be sending a very different signal to the stock market...

 

Charts: Bloomberg