Jobless Claims Jump Most Since Sandy, Now Flat For 13 Months

Tyler Durden's picture

While the popular meme is that jobless claims have been indicating an albeit modestly growing economy, it would appear that facts simply do not reflect that reality. Jobless claims surged this week, missing expectations by the most since Sandy as seasonal affectations are in the rear-view mirror. For 13 months, we have meandered around a flat-line initial claims number in the 365k range - and we remain there. What is most troubling about this total catastrophe that occurred in Emergency Unemployment Compensation. After last week's record-breaking plunge of over 350k, this week saw a surge of over 418k added to the EUC rolls - the biggest 2-week jump in two months. The noise in this data remains impressive and yet it is the correlated macro data that appears to be at the heart of so many people's belief in the equity market's strength...

From last week's impressive statistical print - there was only one state that saw claims rise...Florida:

The largest increases in initial claims for the week ending January 19 were in Florida (+1,157), Arizona (+295), and Vermont (+77), while the largest decreases were in Pennsylvania (-12,625), Texas (-10,448), North Carolina (-9,287), New York (-7,379), and Indiana (-6,069).

Initial claims surged, recovering last week's improvements...and are flatline for 13 months...


Which appears to be sending a very different signal to the stock market...


Charts: Bloomberg

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spastic_colon's picture

ofcourse they did, no QE without crappy news

TotalCarp's picture

The shit's getting real. Actually off that.. Maybe just a tiny bit more real-er.. But its still all smoke and fking mirrors.

GetZeeGold's picture



Don't worry, help is on the us.


We just have some stuff to do before we start worrying about jobs again. Just as soon as we get around to steroids in baseball and guns....we'll get right on that jobs stuff. Besides the election is over, we won't have to worry about it for at least a couple years.

Skateboarder's picture

See you in four, lower gas prices and lower unemployment figures. Oh wait... everything is rigged or bullshited. But that's not what CNN tells me!

Say What Again's picture

Let me be the first to say....


FEDbuster's picture

Looks like the news was good enough for Obama to disband his "Jobs Council".  You know, the one who never had any meetings.  Booo Yaaaa!  Forward

mightycluck's picture

Is this economist correct? The worst economic recovery since 1882? Sounds plausible. But is it true?

Never One Roach's picture

High unemployment and a sagging economy? Something a good long drawn out multi trillion dollar war could solve.

FEDbuster's picture

World War has a whole chapter in the bankster's "playbook".

Meat Hammer's picture

Yep.  The global warming money-grab isn't working so it's time for Al Qaeda (aka the CIA) to threaten our freedom so we can get rid of that pesky debt ceiling and fund a war in the name of patriotism.

If you're not with us, you're against us and you'll have your thinking "corrected". 


FEDbuster's picture

At least the CIA still has the corner on the Afgan heroin trade,

spastic_colon's picture

next NFP will be the perfect balance of "just enough smoke, and a pinch of mirrors" now that everything relys on "targeted" data

insanelysane's picture

Fortunately the government is focusing on Immigration, Gun Control, Gay Marriage, Abortion Rights, Michele's hairdo, ...

I'm sure jobs, national debt, and budget are somewhere on the list.

deKevelioc's picture

Rumor is that the Fed no long thinks M2 velocity is a useful statistic.  For cryin' out loud, doesn't this graph say it all?

UC: "Chucky baby, Chuck baby, I've noticed that you're standing too close to the camera."

CB: "How far back should I stand?"

UC: "Do you have a car?"

CunnyFunt's picture

It will all be explained away by the state media, just like the GDP contraction.

Some smug "economist" will assure us, no worries.

smlbizman's picture

you are talking about liesman.......and when that asshole says "we think....we feel...who is this we, we are refering to?

CunnyFunt's picture

Liesman is not even a fake economist, just a mouthpiece.

mayhem_korner's picture



Where on the scale is Dick Bove (he of the 14-year bull run for banks about to commence)?  Jus wunnerin'...cuz there can't be many slots below "fake economist".

CunnyFunt's picture

A journalist posing as an economist ranks, in my estimation, below "fake economist".

The likes of Krugman and Reich would be categorized as fake economists, namely econometricists, a completely separate discipline.

And then there are ANALysts like Bove.

mckee's picture

Ha!... You said journalist!

Rip van Wrinkle's picture

What's Liesman and economists got to do with each other??

Lendo's picture

Nothing, actually.  He has a masters in journalism and reeks of statism.  Thus he's clueless..



mayhem_korner's picture



The surges in the S&P chart are so correlated with each round of QE that it really doesn't mean anything to chart it against some (otherwise meaningful) fundamental data like claims.

eclectic syncretist's picture

It's time to short this bloated bubble pig of a market. 

LawsofPhysics's picture

And for that we thank you.  We may just turn some of our soybeans right back into the soil this year.  Better for the soil and we don't want to get too greedy after all.

mayhem_korner's picture



If the claims are flat over the course of a year, and the population of employed has shrunk in that time, then the rate of layoffs is INCREASING.  That's what my math book says, anyway.

pinqy's picture

You would be correct. Except that the population of employed has not shrunk in that time. The Insured Unemployment rate was 2.8% this time last year and was 2.5% for last week.

Sudden Debt's picture


my answer: to many people already won the lottery...

james larson's picture

Hard to spin this (from today's report)

The total number of people claiming benefits in all programs for the week ending January 12 was 5,914,983, an increase of 255,501 from the previous week

EscapeKey's picture

Well, those all add to GDP numbers.

AynRandFan's picture

I suppose that's true!

Everybodys All American's picture

Look at what an outlier or is it out liar that November jobs number was right before the election. The con game going on in the WH is epic.

SuperDeDuper's picture

Whenever i take a poop, i think that every flush is another american dream.  Pretty true, we're all gonna pay for dis mess.  Extra TP please!

joego1's picture

The economy will pick up as the new war gets going.

Bananamerican's picture

I hear the next war is going to be "ladies night"....

joego1's picture

The economy will pick up as the new war gets going.

thismarketisrigged's picture

dont worry, somehow the market interprets this as positive. u cant make this shit up.


the funny part about how everyone keeps saying the economy is improving, so that begs the question, why the fuck do we need the fed involved if things are improving around the globe like all these fuck faces claim it to be?


fuck u wall st, obama, and bernanke, bunch of criminals.

jplotinus's picture

Let me take a guess here. Economic conditions do not satisfy the expectations of ZH posters.

Is that about the size of it?

SuperDeDuper's picture

If obama would just send me a check every month i wouldnt complain as much, but i feel like i need to contribute to society instead of sitting on my front porch waiting for my welfare check and then going to buy drugs.

Meat Hammer's picture

Actually, they do satisfy my expectations because this is exactly what I expected.

Gimp's picture

Quick - roll-out Zandi and Liesmen to tell us ithings are looking  better then ever!

MFLTucson's picture

Where did the numbers come from right before the electiion?  The fraud is so fuckin deep that I dont think there is a chance of anything other than a compltete collapse.

Anasteus's picture

Jumping jobless claims is traditionally bullish for PMs, which was exactly what happened today after publishing the number. Almost immediately the gold price started being dragged down for a longer while literally at all costs until it eventually fell down below yesterday's level. Totally illogical.

The cartel has to be extremely nervous of PMs these days. Either they somehow feel that the current fragile confidence in the status quo would be seriously threatened by a significant upward move, or they must keep the prices low because of the affordability to manage swap/lease maturities... or keep on buying new gold for Buba. The PM farce thus goes on.

AynRandFan's picture

Impressive that an inverted chart of initial claims is such a perfect fit to the S&P500. Very cool.

tawse57's picture

US jobless up but, last time I checked, so was the DOW.

Why don't they just explode a few nuclear warheads around the planet so that the DOW can shoot through 20,000 in an afternoon!

CheapBastard's picture

Doesn't "EUC" mean "Excellent Used Condition?"


That's what Ebay says.


Hohum's picture

It's odd, though.  Down 56K year over year not seasonally adjusted after two weeks in which year over year was HIGHER than 2012.  The only conclusion is that these numbers are all noise and no signal.

foodstampbarry's picture

Wow, this President bites the big one.