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Jobless Claims Jump Most Since Sandy, Now Flat For 13 Months

Tyler Durden's picture




 

While the popular meme is that jobless claims have been indicating an albeit modestly growing economy, it would appear that facts simply do not reflect that reality. Jobless claims surged this week, missing expectations by the most since Sandy as seasonal affectations are in the rear-view mirror. For 13 months, we have meandered around a flat-line initial claims number in the 365k range - and we remain there. What is most troubling about this total catastrophe that occurred in Emergency Unemployment Compensation. After last week's record-breaking plunge of over 350k, this week saw a surge of over 418k added to the EUC rolls - the biggest 2-week jump in two months. The noise in this data remains impressive and yet it is the correlated macro data that appears to be at the heart of so many people's belief in the equity market's strength...

From last week's impressive statistical print - there was only one state that saw claims rise...Florida:

The largest increases in initial claims for the week ending January 19 were in Florida (+1,157), Arizona (+295), and Vermont (+77), while the largest decreases were in Pennsylvania (-12,625), Texas (-10,448), North Carolina (-9,287), New York (-7,379), and Indiana (-6,069).

Initial claims surged, recovering last week's improvements...and are flatline for 13 months...

 

Which appears to be sending a very different signal to the stock market...

 

Charts: Bloomberg

 

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Thu, 01/31/2013 - 09:50 | 3202072 spastic_colon
spastic_colon's picture

ofcourse they did, no QE without crappy news

Thu, 01/31/2013 - 09:50 | 3202079 TotalCarp
TotalCarp's picture

The shit's getting real. Actually off that.. Maybe just a tiny bit more real-er.. But its still all smoke and fking mirrors.

Thu, 01/31/2013 - 10:06 | 3202085 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Don't worry, help is on the way......trust us.

 

We just have some stuff to do before we start worrying about jobs again. Just as soon as we get around to steroids in baseball and guns....we'll get right on that jobs stuff. Besides the election is over, we won't have to worry about it for at least a couple years.

Thu, 01/31/2013 - 10:31 | 3202223 Skateboarder
Skateboarder's picture

See you in four, lower gas prices and lower unemployment figures. Oh wait... everything is rigged or bullshited. But that's not what CNN tells me!

Thu, 01/31/2013 - 10:51 | 3202294 Say What Again
Say What Again's picture

Let me be the first to say....

BULLISH

Thu, 01/31/2013 - 12:45 | 3202776 FEDbuster
FEDbuster's picture

Looks like the news was good enough for Obama to disband his "Jobs Council".  You know, the one who never had any meetings.  Booo Yaaaa!  Forward

Thu, 01/31/2013 - 12:58 | 3202833 mightycluck
mightycluck's picture

Is this economist correct? The worst economic recovery since 1882? Sounds plausible. But is it true?

http://confoundedinterest.wordpress.com/2013/01/31/jobless-claims-rise-c...

Thu, 01/31/2013 - 11:05 | 3202348 Never One Roach
Never One Roach's picture

High unemployment and a sagging economy? Something a good long drawn out multi trillion dollar war could solve.

Thu, 01/31/2013 - 13:06 | 3202871 FEDbuster
FEDbuster's picture

World War has a whole chapter in the bankster's "playbook".

Thu, 01/31/2013 - 13:14 | 3202903 Meat Hammer
Meat Hammer's picture

Yep.  The global warming money-grab isn't working so it's time for Al Qaeda (aka the CIA) to threaten our freedom so we can get rid of that pesky debt ceiling and fund a war in the name of patriotism.

If you're not with us, you're against us and you'll have your thinking "corrected". 

 

Thu, 01/31/2013 - 19:20 | 3204336 FEDbuster
FEDbuster's picture

At least the CIA still has the corner on the Afgan heroin trade,

Thu, 01/31/2013 - 09:55 | 3202086 spastic_colon
spastic_colon's picture

next NFP will be the perfect balance of "just enough smoke, and a pinch of mirrors" now that everything relys on "targeted" data

Thu, 01/31/2013 - 10:29 | 3202211 insanelysane
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Fortunately the government is focusing on Immigration, Gun Control, Gay Marriage, Abortion Rights, Michele's hairdo, ...

I'm sure jobs, national debt, and budget are somewhere on the list.

Thu, 01/31/2013 - 12:43 | 3202766 deKevelioc
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Rumor is that the Fed no long thinks M2 velocity is a useful statistic.  For cryin' out loud, doesn't this graph say it all?

UC: "Chucky baby, Chuck baby, I've noticed that you're standing too close to the camera."

CB: "How far back should I stand?"

UC: "Do you have a car?"

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?id=M2V

Thu, 01/31/2013 - 09:51 | 3202078 CunnyFunt
CunnyFunt's picture

It will all be explained away by the state media, just like the GDP contraction.

Some smug "economist" will assure us, no worries.

Thu, 01/31/2013 - 09:56 | 3202090 smlbizman
smlbizman's picture

you are talking about liesman.......and when that asshole says "we think....we feel...who is this we, we are refering to?

Thu, 01/31/2013 - 09:58 | 3202096 CunnyFunt
CunnyFunt's picture

Liesman is not even a fake economist, just a mouthpiece.

Thu, 01/31/2013 - 10:01 | 3202104 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

 

 

Where on the scale is Dick Bove (he of the 14-year bull run for banks about to commence)?  Jus wunnerin'...cuz there can't be many slots below "fake economist".

Thu, 01/31/2013 - 10:10 | 3202120 CunnyFunt
CunnyFunt's picture

A journalist posing as an economist ranks, in my estimation, below "fake economist".

The likes of Krugman and Reich would be categorized as fake economists, namely econometricists, a completely separate discipline.

And then there are ANALysts like Bove.

Thu, 01/31/2013 - 10:12 | 3202138 mckee
mckee's picture

Ha!... You said journalist!

Thu, 01/31/2013 - 10:17 | 3202167 Rip van Wrinkle
Rip van Wrinkle's picture

What's Liesman and economists got to do with each other??

Thu, 01/31/2013 - 10:25 | 3202192 Lendo
Lendo's picture

Nothing, actually.  He has a masters in journalism and reeks of statism.  Thus he's clueless..

 

http://www.cnbc.com/id/15838058/Steve_Liesman_Profile_Biography_About__CNBC

 

 

Thu, 01/31/2013 - 09:54 | 3202083 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

 

 

The surges in the S&P chart are so correlated with each round of QE that it really doesn't mean anything to chart it against some (otherwise meaningful) fundamental data like claims.

Thu, 01/31/2013 - 10:21 | 3202175 eclectic syncretist
eclectic syncretist's picture

It's time to short this bloated bubble pig of a market. 

Thu, 01/31/2013 - 10:13 | 3202144 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

And for that we thank you.  We may just turn some of our soybeans right back into the soil this year.  Better for the soil and we don't want to get too greedy after all.

Thu, 01/31/2013 - 09:59 | 3202100 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

 

 

If the claims are flat over the course of a year, and the population of employed has shrunk in that time, then the rate of layoffs is INCREASING.  That's what my math book says, anyway.

Thu, 01/31/2013 - 11:02 | 3202325 pinqy
pinqy's picture

You would be correct. Except that the population of employed has not shrunk in that time. The Insured Unemployment rate was 2.8% this time last year and was 2.5% for last week.

Thu, 01/31/2013 - 10:03 | 3202105 swissaustrian
swissaustrian's picture

RED shots?

Thu, 01/31/2013 - 10:03 | 3202111 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

THE REAL QUESTION: WHO DOES EVERYBODY WANT TO QUIT WORKING?!

my answer: to many people already won the lottery...

Thu, 01/31/2013 - 10:04 | 3202113 james larson
james larson's picture

Hard to spin this (from today's report)

The total number of people claiming benefits in all programs for the week ending January 12 was 5,914,983, an increase of 255,501 from the previous week

Thu, 01/31/2013 - 10:09 | 3202124 EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

Well, those all add to GDP numbers.

Thu, 01/31/2013 - 10:34 | 3202232 AynRandFan
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LOL
I suppose that's true!

Thu, 01/31/2013 - 10:21 | 3202173 Everybodys All ...
Everybodys All American's picture

Look at what an outlier or is it out liar that November jobs number was right before the election. The con game going on in the WH is epic.

Thu, 01/31/2013 - 10:23 | 3202187 SuperDeDuper
SuperDeDuper's picture

Whenever i take a poop, i think that every flush is another american dream.  Pretty true, we're all gonna pay for dis mess.  Extra TP please!

Thu, 01/31/2013 - 10:25 | 3202196 joego1
joego1's picture

The economy will pick up as the new war gets going.

Thu, 01/31/2013 - 12:38 | 3202746 Bananamerican
Bananamerican's picture

I hear the next war is going to be "ladies night"....

Thu, 01/31/2013 - 10:26 | 3202197 joego1
joego1's picture

The economy will pick up as the new war gets going.

Thu, 01/31/2013 - 10:27 | 3202199 thismarketisrigged
thismarketisrigged's picture

dont worry, somehow the market interprets this as positive. u cant make this shit up.

 

the funny part about how everyone keeps saying the economy is improving, so that begs the question, why the fuck do we need the fed involved if things are improving around the globe like all these fuck faces claim it to be?

 

fuck u wall st, obama, and bernanke, bunch of criminals.

Thu, 01/31/2013 - 10:28 | 3202203 jplotinus
jplotinus's picture

Let me take a guess here. Economic conditions do not satisfy the expectations of ZH posters.

Is that about the size of it?

Thu, 01/31/2013 - 10:36 | 3202239 SuperDeDuper
SuperDeDuper's picture

If obama would just send me a check every month i wouldnt complain as much, but i feel like i need to contribute to society instead of sitting on my front porch waiting for my welfare check and then going to buy drugs.

Thu, 01/31/2013 - 13:17 | 3202919 Meat Hammer
Meat Hammer's picture

Actually, they do satisfy my expectations because this is exactly what I expected.

Thu, 01/31/2013 - 10:28 | 3202205 Gimp
Gimp's picture

Quick - roll-out Zandi and Liesmen to tell us ithings are looking  better then ever!

Thu, 01/31/2013 - 10:30 | 3202216 MFLTucson
MFLTucson's picture

Where did the numbers come from right before the electiion?  The fraud is so fuckin deep that I dont think there is a chance of anything other than a compltete collapse.

Thu, 01/31/2013 - 11:39 | 3202241 Anasteus
Anasteus's picture

Jumping jobless claims is traditionally bullish for PMs, which was exactly what happened today after publishing the number. Almost immediately the gold price started being dragged down for a longer while literally at all costs until it eventually fell down below yesterday's level. Totally illogical.

The cartel has to be extremely nervous of PMs these days. Either they somehow feel that the current fragile confidence in the status quo would be seriously threatened by a significant upward move, or they must keep the prices low because of the affordability to manage swap/lease maturities... or keep on buying new gold for Buba. The PM farce thus goes on.

Thu, 01/31/2013 - 10:39 | 3202247 AynRandFan
AynRandFan's picture

Impressive that an inverted chart of initial claims is such a perfect fit to the S&P500. Very cool.

Thu, 01/31/2013 - 10:57 | 3202313 tawse57
tawse57's picture

US jobless up but, last time I checked, so was the DOW.

Why don't they just explode a few nuclear warheads around the planet so that the DOW can shoot through 20,000 in an afternoon!

Thu, 01/31/2013 - 11:01 | 3202327 CheapBastard
CheapBastard's picture

Doesn't "EUC" mean "Excellent Used Condition?"

 

That's what Ebay says.

 

Thu, 01/31/2013 - 11:09 | 3202355 Hohum
Hohum's picture

It's odd, though.  Down 56K year over year not seasonally adjusted after two weeks in which year over year was HIGHER than 2012.  The only conclusion is that these numbers are all noise and no signal.

Thu, 01/31/2013 - 11:37 | 3202465 foodstampbarry
foodstampbarry's picture

Wow, this President bites the big one.

Thu, 01/31/2013 - 11:54 | 3202539 Never One Roach
Never One Roach's picture

Haven't all these jobless heard those radio commericals "How to Flip Houses?"

 

 

Thu, 01/31/2013 - 13:09 | 3202885 Meat Hammer
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Welcome to McDonald's.  I have an MBA, 20 years of experience, and 5 kids.  My government considers me fully employed.  May I take your order?

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