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Santelli To Forecasting 'Fail' Fed: "Let Market Forces Reign"
While cogitating on yesterday's weak GDP print, CNBC's Rick Santelli confirmed his view that forecasting is complex (at best) and impossible (most likely). The 2010 view of the Fed was that 2012 growth would be 3.5-4% - quite a destructive miss as it turned out; and while Santelli is not attacking the Fed for its ridiculously bad forecasts, he makes a critical point. Forecasting such a massively complex and dynamic system as the global economy is foolhardy but attempting to control a few of the pieces (and not all of the pieces - which is akin to herding cats) is insane. His suggestion, "maybe [the Fed] should look at what has worked in the past; that is market forces." Indeed, two minutes of sanity...
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Scream at em' Rick.....SCREAM IT!
Gold to 5K. Check out the depression of 1921. Fucking Bernuck studied the wrong depression.
Bernanke to the junkyard of history!
The forgotten depression: http://mises.org/daily/3788
WHHHOOOOOOOOOOOOOO HOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO.. Debt ceiling blow off.! Buy with both fists.. Buy, Buy, Buy, Buy,Buy, Buy, Buy, Buy, Buy, Buy, Buy, Buy, Buy, Buy....
"Let my bond vigilante people go!"
Assuming they're not all dead.
The fed is only interested in what it can steal from the market, and by manipulating the market.
Love Santelli...but...what "market"?
“Market Forces” cannot work freely while they have any semblance of control.
It will be “game over” one day, but until then forecasting is the easiest thing in the world when all you have to do is lie and you never have to account for your fraud.
Ummmm...the "accounting" is exactly what is about to happen. But go ahead...I understand the nature of your comment. Tell me what you are buying, buying, buying right now...and maybe I'll give you a fair hearing.
it's the "got a good reason for taking the easy way out" approach. i was thinking of this scene today http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HEG3-l9vK7E only "instead of great battle we have Senator Schumer telling Ben Bernanke to get to work." ON MY COMMAND UNLEASH QE HELL! (weakness and debauchery...weakness and debauchery) http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XwmtNk_Yb2Q
Market forces will never be allowed to work because if they did BB and his little club of pedophiles would be out of jobs and dirt poor and they know it. The sweet young ass would end and then where would they be?
I'm still here .... altho nobody listens anymore.
(Been there done that, etc., ad hoc, vootie, Burma Shave, brush your teeth, quit that you'll get hair on your palms, listen to your mother, it's OK with me if it's OK with your mom.)
exactly..."did someone just wimper free market? nothing another trillion won't solve...
Our Great Depression is our lives...
To Juggernaut- Good Article, most people dont even know about President Harding or what he did, never mind that he was assassinated. The progressives have since practically erased him from history.
note: the progressives have ... erased him from history...
Ah, the olde redaction scheme, a favorite of the... lefties, historically!
You got that right. Just like when the Commies first took over in Russia...all the royals and their photos gone, like they never existed.
What a weak article since it gives no context why the severe recession/depression occurred (result in the decrease in spending from WW1 by the US gov't and the great reduction in demand from key European trading partners) or who was really running the economic show - Andrew Mellon who essentially was the key figure in the US economy until FDR got elected.
+100 great link. thnks
Don't forget the confidence man Geithner...
But then something wonderful happened: Markets cleared, and a vibrant recovery began............But in 1922, the first full year of recovery, the Fed’s index of industrial production leapt by 27.3%. By 1923, the unemployment rate was back to 3.2%. The 1920s began to roar........No TARP, no starving the savers with zero-percent interest rates, no QE, no jimmying up the stock market, no federal “stimulus” of any kind. Yet—I repeat—the depression ended. To those today who demand ever more intervention to cure what ails us, I ask: Why did the depression of 1920-21 ever end? Given the policies with which the authorities treated it, why are we still not ensnared?
http://www.grantspub.com/userfiles/files/g30n06d.pdf
If market forces were set free, then the U.S would be bankrupt overnight.
http://schiffblog.blogspot.ca/
They're not already ?
sshhhhhh. (your not supposed to say that).
I have no problem with Gold at 5k. I would prefer 10k or 100k, but I will not be offended when it is 5k. Just sayin.
He will scream from the roof tops, but the masses will not listen. We deserve the storm that is coming...
actually, that is pretty much the calmest I've ever seen Santelli ... is somebody slipping something into his food?
He has to be very careful when he critizes the FED, he want to keep his job.
Matched sales...
Same thing (most of you never seen or heard of it for it's an implement to drain reserves from the system, not add and drain ain't been done in 10+ years, God help us all) as a reverse repo for all intents and purposes. The Fed sells securities to the primary dealer at known price and commits to buying them back at some future date, known price.
The sale to the dealers thereby drains reserves from the banking system temporarily. The tool was utilized extensively when targeting Federal Funds was "the" policy target. If the rate dropped too ow relative thereto, reserves were drained thereby lowering the level of "excess reserves" in the system.
Ain't seen one of those in a generation, folks.
Since everybody's only interested in flooding the system with worthless money (as in too much)
And the Fed every once in a while claims to do one for "practice" to make sure the procedure works. Sorta like Godzilla destroying Tokyo to make sure it's still possible.
Of fucking course the procedure works! It's simply a sale and purchase of an obligation for settlement on different dates.
DU-fucking-H
note: I was responding to tankster who double posted and deleted the one above... see below
Thanks,Knukles!
welcome
Sorry for my ignorance, but when Rick says "markets will force them to use them to match sales", who's sales?
If I have voted in every election for the candidate that I thought was the most fiscally responsible and conservative, do I still deserve the economic shit storm that the Irresponsible Liberal Profligates have brought to my door?
wait but maria bartiromo said in her observation that healthcare jobs should......
healthcare jobs will be the next welfare jobs and you won't want those diluted and deluded benefits you paid for a steal!
The minute Gentle Ben stops stimulating, we go into a massive deflationary depression.
We're stuck like a rat in a glue trap.
Can't win for losing.
http://www.angrysinner.blogspot.kr/2013/02/thursday.html
" Market forces " . . . . . on the CME floor = front-running
Bernanke ADMITTING his Princeton 'Great Depression' thesis = FAIL............ = FAIL...
~~~
Party on Garth!... Party on Wayne!...
[& that he & a few other of his 'tribal cronies' shuffle out the door with a little more VIG in hand is 'extra kewl']...
Rick's been reading ZH it appears.
Fuck you Fed thug fuckers
i think when he addresses those fucked up announcements....when he says , to the effect i will have to see once the numbers are anaylized....then he waits for the hedge........and i am convinced they all read zero hedge......
Rick was one of the people that turned me on to ZH back in the day. Between him and a few others, I became curious as to why this site would be mentioned as their source of otherwise unobtainable info (relative to the MSM), yet always came with a disclaimer (so they wouldn't appear too supportive of Tylers' perspectives).
Rick is a bond weenie.
All bond weenies think like this (or else you ain't a Bond Daddy, Vigilante or Weenie)
We all read the Hedge.
Exceptions?
Then you ain't in the Bond Business, go back to your mom's basement
(why you think that the WS firms don't want people reading this shit? equity pukes couldn't care... they carry the water for the koolaide)
He knows what's going on and he also knows the ultimate consequences....He was with Drexel in the 80's and knows how the system really works.....the game is already over...this is analogous to filing a protest after getting clobbered by 7 touchdowns.
Well, if you add in his ties to the Kochs, I'd say it's more like laying out the rules of the next game in order to appear relevent enough to get a seat at the table.
There will always be another game.
Obama has been sitting on Soro's c**K long enough. I wonder why NPR never talks about Soros?
World War has worked fairly well in the past, I'm sure Benny and the inkjets are already prepping the printer for that though.........
Bernanke knows what will happen if he releases everything to market forces.
Of course, it's everything that needs to happen.. yields will fly up.. forcing the government to cull spending without lengthy debate, the FED's balance sheet will have to be purged, credit and economy conditions will plummet.
But in the end, the country will be better for it.
The current path for the country is akin to a zombie just walking along waiting for its head to explode.
Oh, truly. He will keep his fists jammed on the "right choices, correct decisions" until we are all doing a GLOBAL face plant into the obvious concrete below us. His overlords and peers expect him to do this and so he WILL do it. At the very last minute he will look out from the TeeVee screen with the look of a Captain Going Down with His Ship, and say something like "I am SO sorry. But forces beyond our control have made us all victims of a great catastrophy. Who could have seen it coming?!?"
Since all statistics are lies I'm surprised fed forecasts aren't correct 100% of the time. When it is bad you have to lie and lie they do.
You're misunderestimating the value of incompetence.
The lying ass forecasts don't match the lying ass data. Brilliant!
lol. The MSM stories are doing the same now. Before, it is runaway government spending that has us on the bullet train off the fiscal cliff to a flaming death. THEN, we get a negative GDP print. Suddenly, LACK of government spending is the blame and everyone should calm down. Of course, any talk of 85 billion a month in printing (err... whatever it is the Fed says they are doing that is not printing) is missing. Holy cow. If folks don't catch on at this point, they never will.
Likely some fellow ZH-er has said it before, but CNBS, IMHO, keeps Rick's contract in hopes of attracting back or retaining some of the masses they've surely lost these past few years with the repeated misses and misconceptions.
If that's the case, I can only say: too little, too weak, too late.
sorry rick the only market force is the fed.
What Bernanke is doing is like trying to fix a bad case of diarrhea using a butt plug. The relief is only temporary, because the body has not had a chance to clean itself out, and the inevitable explosion later will be even uglier.
+1 for butt plug reference
yikes ... dude, you need to pre-empt an analogy like that with some kind of flashing "WARNING" sign for those of us eating while reading ...
or on the can...
I hope it's not this bad... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SIZU_NZRfjA
but I'm not keeping my legs crossed.
Don't worry, that's when they'll switch to "tightening" policy.
nice visual.
TurboLax 2000. Look out.
Good analogy. Better if you add in that they are forcing spicy burittos down, one after another.
However, I must say "eww".
Ugly visual but deadly accurate!
Alan Greespan obliterated Wall Street on purpose...and his hand picked successor Ben Bernanke saw it coming and did something to try and stop it...so no, economic forecasting is not that hard when your goal is to "blow up America and kill those people" as Alan Greenspan's goal so obviously was (h/t Andrea Mitchell of NBC News../and thanks for cooking dinner for me afterwards as well.) insofar as "my name is Illinois and banks won't lend me a phucking dime"...hey, dude...you're the bond guy. You figure it out.
Pouring gasoline on a fire might be "doing something," but to call it an effort to stop the fire is disingenuous.
Sometimes I wonder if you are not correct. Greenspan might have delivered the heroine that Wall Street asked for knowing that he would kill them in the end while those guys would feel high the short term.
When model forecasts are constantly way off the mark, one would think that the FED would take a step back and question the policy. Not this FED, they double down. Group think = disaster.
What if the primary objectives are NOT low employment or low inflation as they state? Do you ever give consideration that they are actually achieving what their objectives are?
Nah, it wouldn't be that blatant would it?
Obviously Wall Street has the exact person they want running the FED.
Many have considered that and have concluded its in all liklihood true.
They do not want low inflation - at least not until they inflate the debt away.
I heard that the NYSE was a CNBC set now and not used for trading. I don't know if that is true or not. Santelli was reasonable from a certain perspective.
Rick seems too calm, like he has given up
I remember hating my coach yelling at me all the time, until he stopped.......and then shortly later, i was no longer a starter
Hey gang, seems like another "epic rant" (kudos to Tyler for having the good taste to leave it out this time).
You know what Id love to see just once, an "epic rant" from someone who does something other than rant for a loving...
Can't ZH just stop posting rants and only post research?
"maybe [the Fed] should look at what has worked in the past; that is market forces." Indeed, two minutes of sanity...
No, this isn't two minutes of sanity. This guy is an idiot. "Market forces" is a myth, like the tooth fairy, like phrenology. This guy's level of analysis only rises to the level of "market forces." If they are "forces," how can they ever be denied? If they can be denied, then we're looking at a different fact situation from the one this clown labels "market forces." This goombah ought to grow up.
What is with this ZH man-crush on Rick Santelli? He's a useful idiot, nothing more. CNBS will let him leak out a little bit of the truth every now and then to keep the muppets in line, but that's about it.
Really guys. The Santelli fan club is creeping me out.
Ah, the Fed knows what it is doing, just read the transcripts from Greenspans chairmanship. They are out to rob the citizenary and they have it down to an art from 100 years of doing it.
He's an angry elf. Must be from the south pole.
Now that was funny - and it works on several levels. Down voters = mouth breathers.
"Two minutes of sanity . . . "--that's far too long in the alternative universe that is Fedmerica--my head will pop.
Market? That's cute, Rick. Bless your heart.
Its pretty foolish to think the Fed or the Political Class will ever let market forces work. The reason is simple.
If market forces are allowed to work, those losers would be out of jobs and dirt poor because they are otherwise useless humans that just feed off of other people. And they know this.
So dont hold your breath for B.B. to "suddenly realize" he has been wrong. He doesnt care if he is right or wrong. He just cares that he gets to print shit loads of money to make himself and his club richer.
That is all. End of story.
Those who are busy doing productive useful work are too busy and preoccupied to pay attention to what the useless, non productive people at the apex of the parasite pyramid are doing to them. Ripping them off.
Ron Paul has it right....if you have a solid currency then most of this mess solves itself. Santelli needs to scream "end the fed now" at the end of each segment.
Of course, if we were to miraculously solve the mess, then there would be an adjustment that would make the Great Depression look like a picnic. Can you even imagine Detroit, LA, Chicago etc etc??? Total mayhem as all of the bread-and-circus crowd realizes they are going to starve to death or work in a sweat shop till they die.
Nice job banker scum.
Once they get the lawful guns, the towns you mentioned will be just fine. By stealing the production from the now gunless productive citizens those "D" towns will have decades of other peoples food and wealth. THis is the plan. Every day it is getting closer.
I just hope someone like him gets prosecuted for "terroristic libel" or some other bogus charge. It might open the eyes of some of the sheeple.
O rly?
Since 2002 Merval index from Argentina is up 730% in pesos.
Ok, it is flat in Gold, but still no bad, better than US market.
So instead of moaning by inflation assets and enjoy the ride.
Now stupid idle money has better keep moving fast, the stupid idle money think that they can force deflation by hoarding cash more and more and more.
The Fed can outrun the cash hoarders until they surrender, the faster they surrender the better so we avoid hyperinflation.
The inflation expecations are running up nicely, capitalution of the cash hoarders soon. Curve steepens, inflation accerelerates. Real GDP is flat or negative, but nominal prints a beautiful 4-5%. Then hte Fed has to sramble to exit without triggering another debt crunch (they will be on the safe side, i.e. letting inflation rise above teh 2% for SURE).
]
in the old days when money was real risk models built in 1-3% blowup possibilities and traded accordingly. now they factor in less than 1% blowup risk becaue blowups don't matter anymore compliments of the fed and the taxpayer.
santelli has it wrong. they(the fed) has it right. inflation has been managed so that only the market for gold, stocks and selected commodities reflect real inflation while your paycheck has essentially reflected deflation. your paycheck doesn't matter. only goldman sucks bonuses matter. if this was done by design they are geniuses. if it happened by accident they look like geniuses.
i was going through some old footage from a few years back, and sure enough nothing has changed, liesman is still an idiot, and santelli actually has a clue
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/cnbc-market-continues-be-propped-govern...
props to zerohedge for the video, i had to search, but its funny how things have only gotten more ridic from the fed since this, and the same people just dont get it ( liesman)
The Fed is jerking off as hard as they can. Too bad they went dickless years ago.
What are interest rates going to be in 3 months, 6 months, 1 year, 2 years, 5 years, etc...
Who gives a bloody toss? What's Au, Ag, and Antimony/Lead/Brass going to be when there is a dollar collapse is the real question?
And why does Rick think the Fed should even FUCKING exist? I missed that part. Please clarify.
Big, loud, zero cred, paid shil of the elite.... the great Santelli is still all about protecting his bankster friends.... he's a fraud and a joke of a man.
Oh, and he and Maria Bitcharomo, of course, own no gold... that worthless relic as they profess it to be.
I can't stand listening to the blowhard... or other CNBCraple TV commentators (with the exception of a few guests like Marc Faber).
CNBC is a fraud serving the elites gorging at the US Treasury trough and sucking the country dry. Unpatriotic swine!
So sayeth the Fox (traped in a human body)
Ron Insana called Bernanke the best Fed Head ever, this afternoon. Guess that tells you everything you need to know about Insana.
Forecasting
Preventing Bubbles
Managing Economic Growth
Avoiding Sytemic Fraud
and the yet to implode DERVIATIVES!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K68AR2PZTOQ
Politicians aversion to market forces is directly related to their ignorance of how they function. To them it is much like a bumble bees flight, it is theoretically impossible in their mind. The idea that markets are beyond their power in the long run is unthinkable. They know they can do things that have short term effects so they think that they can control them forever by small adjustments from month to month. If they had a clue they would not have price controls and price supports and dozens of other trade controls.