Santelli To Forecasting 'Fail' Fed: "Let Market Forces Reign"

Tyler Durden's picture

While cogitating on yesterday's weak GDP print, CNBC's Rick Santelli confirmed his view that forecasting is complex (at best) and impossible (most likely). The 2010 view of the Fed was that 2012 growth would be 3.5-4% - quite a destructive miss as it turned out; and while Santelli is not attacking the Fed for its ridiculously bad forecasts, he makes a critical point. Forecasting such a massively complex and dynamic system as the global economy is foolhardy but attempting to control a few of the pieces (and not all of the pieces - which is akin to herding cats) is insane. His suggestion, "maybe [the Fed] should look at what has worked in the past; that is market forces." Indeed, two minutes of sanity...

 

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buzzsaw99's picture

Since all statistics are lies I'm surprised fed forecasts aren't correct 100% of the time. When it is bad you have to lie and lie they do.

NotApplicable's picture

You're misunderestimating the value of incompetence.

buzzsaw99's picture

The lying ass forecasts don't match the lying ass data. Brilliant!

centerline's picture

lol.  The MSM stories are doing the same now.  Before, it is runaway government spending that has us on the bullet train off the fiscal cliff to a flaming death.  THEN, we get a negative GDP print.  Suddenly, LACK of government spending is the blame and everyone should calm down.  Of course, any talk of 85 billion a month in printing (err... whatever it is the Fed says they are doing that is not printing) is missing.  Holy cow.  If folks don't catch on at this point, they never will.

moonstears's picture

Likely some fellow ZH-er has said it before, but CNBS, IMHO, keeps Rick's contract in hopes of attracting back or retaining some of the masses they've surely lost these past few years with the repeated misses and misconceptions.  

akak's picture

If that's the case, I can only say: too little, too weak, too late.

caimen garou's picture

sorry rick the only market force is the fed.

NoWayJose's picture

What Bernanke is doing is like trying to fix a bad case of diarrhea using a butt plug.  The relief is only temporary, because the body has not had a chance to clean itself out, and the inevitable explosion later will be even uglier.

buzzsaw99's picture

+1 for butt plug reference

bdc63's picture

yikes ... dude, you need to pre-empt an analogy like that with some kind of flashing "WARNING" sign for those of us eating while reading ...

 

krispkritter's picture

I hope it's not this bad... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SIZU_NZRfjA

but I'm not keeping my legs crossed.

NotApplicable's picture

Don't worry, that's when they'll switch to "tightening" policy.

madcows's picture

TurboLax 2000.  Look out.

centerline's picture

Good analogy.  Better if you add in that they are forcing spicy burittos down, one after another.

However, I must say "eww".

 

arby63's picture

Ugly visual but deadly accurate!

disabledvet's picture

Alan Greespan obliterated Wall Street on purpose...and his hand picked successor Ben Bernanke saw it coming and did something to try and stop it...so no, economic forecasting is not that hard when your goal is to "blow up America and kill those people" as Alan Greenspan's goal so obviously was (h/t Andrea Mitchell of NBC News../and thanks for cooking dinner for me afterwards as well.) insofar as "my name is Illinois and banks won't lend me a phucking dime"...hey, dude...you're the bond guy. You figure it out.

NotApplicable's picture

Pouring gasoline on a fire might be "doing something," but to call it an effort to stop the fire is disingenuous.

WhiteNight123129's picture

Sometimes I wonder if you are not correct. Greenspan might have delivered the heroine that Wall Street asked for knowing that he would kill them in the end while those guys would feel high the short term.

rawsienna's picture

 When model forecasts are constantly way off the mark, one would think that the FED would take a step back and question the policy.  Not this FED, they double down.  Group think = disaster. 

ejmoosa's picture

What if the primary objectives are NOT low employment or low inflation as they state?  Do you ever give consideration that they are actually achieving what their objectives are?

Pure Evil's picture

Nah, it wouldn't be that blatant would it?

Obviously Wall Street has the exact person they want running the FED.

Zap Powerz's picture

Many have considered that and have concluded its in all liklihood true.

rawsienna's picture

They do not want low inflation - at least not until they inflate the debt away. 

q99x2's picture

I heard that the NYSE was a CNBC set now and not used for trading. I don't know if that is true or not. Santelli was reasonable from a certain perspective.

Seasmoke's picture

Rick seems too calm, like he has given up

I remember hating my coach yelling at me all the time, until he stopped.......and then shortly later,  i was no longer a starter

Whiteshadowmovement's picture

Hey gang, seems like another "epic rant" (kudos to Tyler for having the good taste to leave it out this time).

You know what Id love to see just once, an "epic rant" from someone who does something other than rant for a loving...

davidsmith's picture

Can't ZH just stop posting rants and only post research?

 

"maybe [the Fed] should look at what has worked in the past; that is market forces." Indeed, two minutes of sanity...

 

No, this isn't two minutes of sanity.  This guy is an idiot.  "Market forces" is a myth, like the tooth fairy, like phrenology.  This guy's level of analysis only rises to the level of "market forces."  If they are "forces," how can they ever be denied?  If they can be denied, then we're looking at a different fact situation from the one this clown labels "market forces."  This goombah ought to grow up.

Room 101's picture

What is with this ZH man-crush on Rick Santelli?  He's a useful idiot, nothing more.  CNBS will let him leak out a little bit of the truth every now and then to keep the muppets in line, but that's about it. 

Really guys.  The Santelli fan club is creeping me out. 

world_debt_slave's picture

Ah, the Fed knows what it is doing, just read the transcripts from Greenspans chairmanship. They are out to rob the citizenary and they have it down to an art from 100 years of doing it.

madcows's picture

He's an angry elf.  Must be from the south pole.

 

centerline's picture

Now that was funny - and it works on several levels.  Down voters = mouth breathers.

gould's fisker's picture

"Two minutes of sanity . . . "--that's far too long in the alternative universe that is Fedmerica--my head will pop.

Meat Hammer's picture

Market?  That's cute, Rick.  Bless your heart.

Zap Powerz's picture

Its pretty foolish to think the Fed or the Political Class will ever let market forces work.  The reason is simple.

If market forces are allowed to work, those losers would be out of jobs and dirt poor because they are otherwise useless humans that just feed off of other people.  And they know this.

So dont hold your breath for B.B. to "suddenly realize" he has been wrong.  He doesnt care if he is right or wrong.  He just cares that he gets to print shit loads of money to make himself and his club richer.

That is all. End of story.

Hubbs's picture

Those who are busy doing productive useful work are too busy and preoccupied to pay attention to what the useless, non productive people at the apex of the parasite pyramid are doing to them. Ripping them off.

Mark123's picture

Ron Paul has it right....if you have a solid currency then most of this mess solves itself.  Santelli needs to scream "end the fed now" at the end of each segment.

 

Of course, if we were to miraculously solve the mess, then there would be an adjustment that would make the Great Depression look like a picnic.  Can you even imagine Detroit, LA, Chicago etc etc???  Total mayhem as all of the bread-and-circus crowd realizes they are going to starve to death or work in a sweat shop till they die.

 

Nice job banker scum.

fxrxexexdxoxmx's picture

Once they get the lawful guns, the towns you mentioned will be just fine. By stealing the production from the now gunless productive citizens those "D" towns will have decades of other peoples food and wealth. THis is the plan. Every day it is getting closer.

Tango in the Blight's picture

I just hope someone like him gets prosecuted for "terroristic libel" or some other bogus charge. It might open the eyes of some of the sheeple.

WhiteNight123129's picture

Since 2002 Merval index from Argentina is up 730% in pesos.

Ok, it is flat in Gold, but still no bad, better than US market.

So instead of moaning by inflation assets and enjoy the ride.

 Now stupid idle money has better keep moving fast, the stupid idle money think that they can force deflation by hoarding cash more and more and more.

The Fed can outrun the cash hoarders until they surrender, the faster they surrender the better so we avoid hyperinflation.

The inflation expecations are running up nicely, capitalution of the cash hoarders soon. Curve steepens, inflation accerelerates. Real GDP is flat or negative, but nominal prints a beautiful 4-5%. Then hte Fed has to sramble to exit without triggering another debt crunch (they will be on the safe side, i.e. letting inflation rise above teh 2% for SURE).

]

 

 

besnook's picture

in the old days when money was real risk models built in 1-3% blowup possibilities and traded accordingly. now they factor in less than 1% blowup risk becaue blowups don't matter anymore compliments of the fed and the taxpayer.

santelli has it wrong. they(the fed) has it right. inflation has been managed so that only the market for gold, stocks and selected commodities reflect real inflation while your paycheck has essentially reflected deflation.  your paycheck doesn't matter. only goldman sucks bonuses matter. if this was done by design they are geniuses. if it happened by accident they look like geniuses.

thismarketisrigged's picture

i was going through some old footage from a few years back, and sure enough nothing has changed, liesman is still an idiot, and santelli actually has a clue

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/cnbc-market-continues-be-propped-govern...

 

props to zerohedge for the video, i had to search, but its funny how things have only gotten more ridic from the fed since this, and the same people just dont get it ( liesman)

CitizenPete's picture

The Fed is jerking off as hard as they can.  Too bad they went dickless years ago. 

 

What are interest rates going to be in 3 months, 6 months, 1 year, 2 years, 5 years, etc...

 

Who gives a bloody toss?   What's Au, Ag, and Antimony/Lead/Brass going to be when there is a dollar collapse is the real question? 

ultraticum's picture

And why does Rick think the Fed should even FUCKING exist?  I missed that part.  Please clarify.

FFox's picture

Big, loud, zero cred, paid shil of the elite.... the great Santelli is still all about protecting his bankster friends.... he's a fraud and a joke of a man.

Oh, and he and Maria Bitcharomo, of course, own no gold... that worthless relic as they profess it to be.

I can't stand listening to the blowhard... or other CNBCraple TV commentators (with the exception of a few guests like Marc Faber).

CNBC is a fraud serving the elites gorging at the US Treasury trough and sucking the country dry.  Unpatriotic swine!

So sayeth the Fox (traped in a human body)

rlouis's picture

Ron Insana called Bernanke the best Fed Head ever, this afternoon.  Guess that tells you everything you need to know about Insana.

Forecasting

Preventing Bubbles

Managing Economic Growth

Avoiding Sytemic Fraud

and the yet to implode DERVIATIVES!

 

dunce's picture

Politicians aversion to market forces is directly related to their ignorance of how they function. To them it is much like a bumble bees flight, it is theoretically impossible in their mind. The idea that markets are beyond their power in the long run is unthinkable. They know they can do things that have short term effects so they think that they can control them forever by small adjustments from month to month. If they had a clue they would not have price controls and price supports and dozens of other trade controls.