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Shorting The Market On These POMO Days May Be Hazardous To Your Health
The central planner's policy tool formerly known as "the stock market" has experienced unprecedented levitation in the past two months on the heels of what, as shown previously, is some 38 countries concurrently pursuing negative interest rates and monetizing their debt, while flooding the market with record liquidity. Furthermore, as we said back on January 9, now that the Fed is back to full scale unsterilized market injections in the form of good old POMO, anyone who wishes to challenge the Fed directly may want to reconsider doing so via stocks (buying precious metals on FRBNY, BOE and BIS-facilitated 8:00 am crashes is always encouraged). Recall what we said on January 9: "it may not be a good idea to be short stocks on any of the [POMO] days listed below." Below is a chart of what happened next: it shows the stock market's performance and whether or not there was POMO on that day.
In brief: of the 15 POMO days since January 9, the market was up 13 of them, or an 87% hit rate. Those who did not short January POMO at least did not lose money.
And since Goldman's Bill Dudley was kind enough to release the February POMO schedule, during which the Fed will add another $44 billion to Primary Dealer dry powder, not to mention some $40 billion in MBS, and since there is no stock market and hasn't been since 2008, we urge everyone to stude the POMO table below and to not short the S&P on the highlighted POMO days unless they absolutely must. Of course, regular readers will know that since the summer of 2009 our active advice to everyone but the most habituated gamblers, has been to stay out of the central planner's policy tool formerly known as "the stock market" entirely.
February POMO schedule (via Fed):
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Print, bitchez!
20 years ago if the media found that out there would be congressional hearings for years.
Today, ask a Lib why, if the economy has recovered, Bernanke is buying $85B worth of bonds monthly, see what he/she/it says, and then promtly laugh at them, restraining yourself from any physical violence.
I'd even advise "the most habituated gamblers" to stay away, as there is little to gain by gambling in a rigged casino.
I understand there are many here who manage OPM for a living with little choice but to play, or seek a new career, so there's little they can do. But everyone else? Well, they're just feeding the Beast.
"Today, ask a Lib why, if the economy has recovered, Bernanke is buying $85B worth of bonds monthly, see what he/she/it says, and then promtly laugh at them, restraining yourself from any physical violence."
As someone who identifies as mostly Lib I got this one.
Bernanke, who has bipartisan support from US gov officials and somewhere in the range of a 70-80% approval rating from investors polled by Bloomberg, has done a fantastic job of pumping up what has long been a smoke & mirrors economy. The 'real' economy has been in the dumps since the 70s.
I'm short this market and I don't care if I lose money for the next little while. This thing is going down regardless of Bernanke's money gun. Maybe not today, maybe not tomorrow but someday.
Any other questions on 'ask a lib?'
"ask a Lib why, if the economy has recovered, Bernanke is buying $85B worth of bonds monthly, see what he/she/it says, and then promtly laugh at them, restraining yourself from any physical violence"
~~~
Why stop there [with the HILARITY]?... Proceed to ask them how many 'bitcoins' the notional value of that printing amounts to...
Answer: The ENTIRE planetary notional value of bitcoins every 10 minutes or so...
"Don't HATE ME because I'm beautiful!"
~~~
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hz8ul-gmLyA
Tagline: "You'll see"...
Umm...
http://ohnotheydidnt.livejournal.com/20842268.html
Still holding my short, let’s see what happens in ME and slowing economies across the globe..when I give up, it should be at the top. Such a sick market.
Haha I feel your pain.... Keep wanting to short but don't want to get burned.
Hold your position and it will eventually turn profits but you know, sod's law says the second you close out your short, that'll be the top and the market will plunge. Crazy times out there
@ James_Cole
Yes, I have a question or two for "Ask a Lib".
"Why do we see a DECLINE of 0.1% in the economy last quarter, yet we hear so little about it?"
"Is RECESSION next?"
***
Maybe we have entered a long phase of economic stagnation. I am seeing stagnation almost everywhere (except in equities, maybe, for now, danger!). Even the price of gold is stagnant.
Is stagnation contagious? Can we shake it off? Can I?
"Stagnation"
http://tinyurl.com/ayvptbw
"Why do we see a DECLINE of 0.1% in the economy last quarter, yet we hear so little about it?"
I can't say I know who the "we" in this scenario is, but I read about it constantly. Like, for instance, the front page of todays financial times.
"Is RECESSION next?"
This question is better suited for a psychic but my guess is yes.
Yes, J_C, I saw the first page of the FT as well. A UK newspaper.
My guess is yes re recession coming next.
Does the POMO money jack stocks on the Operation Date or the Settlement Date???
Look at today's charts. You'll have the answer.
I've long ago abandoned the mere notion that I would get a logical, coherent answer from a Lib.
One that, like you mentioned, would not provoke physical violence from myself.
+ .45
+ 1, LH! Even though the green button no workie...!
Who's selling to the fed besides bill grossmeout?
Who needs an economy! We have PRINTED prosperity now!
Are there any retail investors left?
I'm too chickenshit to play this market.
A guy needs insider information to survive.
A regular Joe would have a better chance putting it all on red.
http://www.angrysinner.blogspot.kr/2013/02/thursday.html
Jesus fucking Christ, are they doing it everyday now?!
That was found to be the best way to prevent those traumatic 'down days' in the 'market' from occurring.
So, I just noticed that on 2/19 (and throughout the month) they'll be buying up 30 year notes issued on 2/15.
That anyone could defend this with a straight face...
Does Bernanke use botox?
Federal candle on FB today.
No, Saturday and Sunday are the exceptions.
For now.
Just wait, eventually it'll be every hour.
Then every minute.
Then every second.
And finally, Nirvana.
Every week day in Feb. except for Friday the 15th and Monday the 18th which happens to be President's Day.
is it just me, or does this seem criminal?
You must be new. No it's not just you, but when you're filthy rich laws do not apply. The laws are just for us peasents.
Oh, they apply. Just in the opposite direction.
what is criminal is overt depreciation of the currency, "2% target". if you have savings, it will be worth less, if you earn money working, your labor value has been deemed to decrease in purchasing power. savings is not allowed, spend it, or hand it over to the primary dealers to take their %, and depending on when you ask for it back, it may or may not all be there. now GET TO WORK!
And to that I can only reply, "Fuck you, Milton Friedman!"
Nid said: "is it just me, or does this seem criminal?"
No, you are not alone.
Criminal? Yes.
Stealing from future generations to feed the excesses of mammon lusting oligarchs and kleptocrats while debasing the currency and starving the hard working common folk.
It worked for the despots of Rome, the nobility of Europe, the failed totalitarian regimes of the 20th century - for a time.
i was just watching cnbc and this guy named ron insomna i believe, i wanted to fucking punch him in the face. he was saying how the economy is doing great, europe was recovering nicely, and he said, and i am not making this shit up, ben bernanke is the best thing to ever happen.
fuck this guy
CNBC. That channel is still on?
And you're watching it? And admitting to it?
That makes you worse than them.
Comedy NBC, right?
Got that right LH, NBC = Nothing But Comedy
@tsar pointless, i need to laugh during the day, and what better channel to make you laugh at 3 pm cnbc
Every money manager is saying it and they will keep saying it until they get their asses handed to them on a silver platter.
fake it till you break it
...and then he hopped on his flying unicorn and flew back to his magic castle in the sky. Well, the propagandists have known no shame for some time now, so it's not surprising.
Wait, wait, I'm starting to sound like a member of the lunatic fringe. I take it back, if somebody wearing a suit says it on a reputable network like CNBC then it must be true. Fuck, and here I was a ready to believe my lying eyes.
Ron Insana was relegated to the scrap heap of hedge funds in 08 when he tried to go into the banker bizness after being at CNBS for 14 years as a commentator and anchor.......he had his head handed to him when he challenged on air the "derivatives market" and was one of the first commentators to do so on MSM news.......he was crushed in the collapse and had a lobotomy after water torture. He learned his lesson and now he talks the talk.
And I LOLed. Hard.
Ron's a FNN - CNBC Veteran that I beleive moved into wealth mgmt after the tech bubble blew up. His economy and all those financial anchors ecionomy is beyond fine, just like members of CONgress.
Ron Insana?
ROFLMAO!
He was a CNBC commentator until he left to start his own hedge fund.
Failed miserably, so now he is back to pumping the markets and lying.
Insana still has mother's milk on his lip and regular duties at Lloyd Blankfein's place to buff his shoes and wax his ass.
Dear Fed,
It would be most helpful if you would indicate, in addition to the dates and amounts of POMO, the actual stocks or indexes that you prefer the primary dealers to purchase.
Thanks in advance,
Mainstreet
Dear Mainstreet,
Perhaps you missed the memo - we're out to enrich ourselves at your expense. That doesn't work if we let you in on the secrets.
Best
Wallstreet
Dear WS -
Your candor inspires a great deal of confidence.
Here is my entire life savings. Would you be willing to put it under your management? That would be great.
Hugs,
Mainstreet
Funny, when I used to trade bonds (or anything for that matter), I'd be highly pissed off if anyone explicitly front-ran me.
The Fed, however, don't seem quite so concerned about keeping their trading plans particularly secret.....
Oh don't be so worried. Every investment bank have chinese walls to stop anything untoward from happening.
And if that fails, the SEC stand ready to take charge.
About the effectiveness of those Chinese walls.
http://cache.gizmodo.com/assets/images/4/2011/11/dd1820ac0d8bf034f9bd662...
Fuck you Bernanke and Dudley you fucking shit bathing fucking assholes. Fucking burn.
Eurepo rates are pretty interesting YTD.
i see bernanke loves facebook today, he brought it back all the way from a low of 28.74 this morning, to 31.30, that despite not a blowout earnings report in which fakebook needed in order to justify its current evaluation, and 3 downgrades.
Funny how stocks such as FB go oppsite way of the so called experts. When FB's IPO was beening pumped up everyone loved. Now that we're being told it's crap I'm sure we should see it hit some new highs with a major short squeeze. I won't be trading it or trading anything anymore.
I already have stuck huge amounts of money into the ponzi scheme through my pension. Without a choice of course. Last year alone I put $35,000 into it because the pension fund was in trouble and we needed to give the raise that was suppose to be on our wage to our pension to strength it. Ya I'm pissed because I will never see a dime and know that.
I went to the meeting about my pension and listened to the fund manager. Wow it was a disgrace. According to her we have the best and brightest investors on our team and our Union is the envy of all other Union trades. The only reason the pension has problems is because of 2008 and the world markets and there was nothing they could do about that was the explanation. I'm no market expert but once I asked her a question and she realized her big fancy words didn`t fly over my head she would not even look my way or acknowldege me. So I waited till she was done then went up and talked to her only to be cut directly off by my nternational union president.
Not sure what I can do. Probably not much. We dont have any choice wether we want to invest or not. This is theft and really all she cares about is her job and fees. I live in Canada.
Love those Unions run behind the scenes by Vinny and his boys
Union pension fund is there for the union higher ups, the Democrat party, mobsters, Hopey Changey, etc - it is their piggy bank.
Evil Hollywood and TV are shit who support all this. When I watched movies years ago - I saw Scrosese's Casino which sucked but had a few memorable things. The mob bosses back in Kansas City were mad because they were skimming money (cash) out of the casino. I think in the movie, the casino was an investment by the union pension fund.
The problem was the counting room was also skimming and probably others were skimming. The skim going back to Kansas City got smaller and smaller. Evertually "everybody got clipped."
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1FZ2FA-epcE
Shorting The "Market" On Days That End in "Y" May Be Hazardous To Your Wealth
So, essentially every day a Pomo day? When will we have an act of Congress prohibiting down days altogether?
2016-2020, US bond market blows up.. after we tax the hell out of anything that moves and it still doesn't raise enough revenue.
2032, The RMB becomes worlds reserve currency... the West goes into a dark age. ugh, I'll be 54 years old.
2015 oil production begins to fall rapidly and shit hits the fan.
Good luck with the rest of your predictions.
conventional's already there
look at cantarell (arguably the worst example)
Everytime I bet on a superbowl square I get a fuckin 5. The fix is in every damn where.
I'm with you. The year someone wins 5-2 I will clean up.
You basically have to hope for a shootout with 35 points on that side.
Now if we can also get a list of the dates when they buy S&P futures and sell gold futures... Or is that every day?
Remember when people used to buy stocks? Ahhh, the good ole days!
It would be nice to see POMO size in that table to confirm 100% correlation between POMO size and SP gains.
market making a incredible comeback. will they bring it to the green or just shy?
i need to laugh so i hope they bring green just for the sake of me laughing
Plunge Protection Team - Hiding in Plain Sight
So now that this is all common knowledge... And retail inflows are reportedly coming in...When does this become a contra indicator? Or do you just go long 4 eva...?
Shorting ? What is this shorting thing you are talking about?
A blueprint to investing and making money...thank you Tylers!
cue talk of 'healthy' 5% 'consolidation'.....
ok so on to tommorows '' big market driver'' according to the analysts.
either way, the report will be taken as a positive by the fools.
scenario 1- unemployment rises = longer pumping duration by bernanke, markets sees as positive
scenario 2- unemployment falls= economy is improving real well, stocks higher.
either scenario these fools will make a positive about it, its such a non event
The droning of aircraft engines far overhead was bloody intriguing, to say the least.
Then came that damnable whistling...
"...regular readers will know that since the summer of 2009 our active advice to everyone but the most habituated gamblers, has been to stay out of the central planner's policy tool formerly known as "the stock market" entirely."
LOL
Yes, exactly.
Thinking of the poor slobs who read ZH then short the market and blame ZH - not recognizing the difference between commentary and advice.
lot's of those.....
When the hell am I supposed to short? They've got all the bases covered!?
Big daddy hitting you in the face everytime you don't eat your meat makes the market an explosive pudding.
BRAVO!!!... Tyler
as long as we know their game plan we can use it to our advantage.
We are screwed anyway.
Off topic, but...
Russell Wasendorf Sr., the former CEO of Peregrine Financial Group who admitted to stealing clients' funds, was sentenced to 50 years in prison Thursday.
Wasendorf pleaded guilty in September to embezzling $215.5 million from more than 13,000 customers of the commodities futures firm over the course of 20 years. He prepared false documents that inflated the value of his firm.
http://money.cnn.com/2013/01/31/investing/wasendorf-sentenced/
One down, many more to go.
Knowing that financial corruption in Iowa has come to an end should do wonders for the market.
Yeh...they are still trying to figure out who stole MF Global's clients money. CEO Corzine says he doesn't know where the $$ are or why they were lost.
But I am sure that the Feds (with the MSM) are still hot and very close to cracking that case.
Shorting the market during any of the following intervals is hazardous to your wealth:
Beginning of month mutual fund inflow days,
pre-holiday feel-good ramps,
anticipation of Fed meeting day announcements,
post Fed meeting day validation,
week of option expiration,
earnings announcement days of companies with lowered expections,
end of month markup,
and of course POMO days.
It looks like just about every day is a POMO day!
Let's see, $40 billion a month of mortgages with the average mortgage at say, what, $150,000, that's about 267,000 houses a month incremental the Fed now owns. So, I get to work, you the government take so much of my money I can't actually afford a home, the prices of which you are desperately trying to increase, so I have to go into debt to you the government so I can have a roof over my head? Sounds like freedom to me.
Well, technically they own zero houses, as they belong to the individual trusts.
But then again, this is legal-land under discussion, so...
As you were!
It should be noted that pretty much the only days missing from that list are Saturdays and Sundays. I'll wait until Saturday moring, short that bitch and then close the position Sunday about noon. Should be just fine.
One time, someone will have the 50-ton balls required to do it, and they will hit the lottery. It's gonna work till it don't work.
The last market participant that claimed an "87% hit rate" was Bernie Madoff.
20 working days in February, 18 of them are POMOs. Not much doubt where ES is going.
Actually, 19 working days and 18 of them are POMOS. I assume no POMO on Friday, 2/15 as it would interfere with an extended 4-day holiday in conjunction with President's Day on 2/20.
Must just be a coincidence that the the largest POMO in Feb is scheduled for Valentines day. Or is it's Benny's way of saying "I love you" to his main Wall street squeezes?
Bernanke....We will Fuck You Into Sumission!!! German Accent...Thou Market Will Go UP...ALL Heil!!!
POMO in the morning, POMO in the evening, POMO at supper time....
Be my lil sugar and love me all the time.
The central banks have made it almost impossible to short. While not an outright ban on shorting, there are very investors willing to short any of the indexes. The VIX is way down because there is no volatility - just a melt up in an almost straight line. The shorts are still out there, but the only thing they can do is lurk until the bubble pops.
Tomorrow's NFP has the potential to give us a perfect intermediate topping stick in equities, IF the big money wants to lighten up, book some profits, and sell us down to the 20-day. The gift from God scenario would be strength coming off the NFP and a big gap up that is sold into all day and closes red. We're overbought and just broke the hourly trendline, which makes me lean toward a sell-off, and possibly the dream scenario, but there's never an easy time to get short when it means fighting the Fed.
Tomorrow will be very revealing of the market's intentions.
But, how nice it is to be "short" when it goes your way with the extra BANG!...Can't help but add, knowing..."EVERY DOG HAS IT'S DAY".
the "short", is what i crave
The market will eventually kill the federal reserve. I live for that day.
That will not happen, because the FED can add zeros to their account daily...... The banks, hedge funds or retail traders can't do that.
However, I'm tempted to print my own money on the copier at work to pay my bills. Same worthless money.
I smell a black swan somewhere in the vicinity of NY...
There are only TWO non-POMO days in the entire month of Feb. Those two days are the ones before (Fri) and on (Mon) the President's Day holiday! So I guess its FREE money throughout Feb, thanks to Bubbles Bernanke's stalwart commitment to the 1%!
Not only the relentless purchasing of treasuries...laying out the cash to prop stocks and other speculative bubble blowing in commodities (oil back to 100 from the 78 it had declined to prior to the one-two Draghi/Bernanke punches last summer)...but also the mbs purchases to prop housing credit and reflation http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/ambs/
Taxpayers along with dollar based workers and savers are footing the bill, paying for all this largesse and Fed Reserve giveaways to banks, specific speculators and stockholders. When the taxpayer (through Treasury) pays interest on treasury issued bills, notes and bonds, the Federal Reserve returns that interest to the treasury for the securities it holds...after deduction of costs and any losses incurred. So the mbs purchases, made at above market value for crappy and fraudulent real estate loans that were pawned off onto fannie, freddie and should have been put back to the original lending banks but that instead the Fed purchases then subsequently writes off as a loss get covered by the taxpayers' interest the Fed will not be refunding back to treasury. In other words, another taxpayer backdoor bailout of the banks, and too big to fails who sold the crap to the gubmint sponsored agencies. Tarp was too upsetting to the public and taxpayers so this is how it gets done...in underhanded behind the scenes fashion. More welfare for the FIRE economy. Yes, reeks of criminality.