The goldilocks economy continues as January nonfarm payrolls number comes in right as expected, or 157,000, a tiny miss to expectations of 165,000, down from the upwardly revised 196,000 (was 155,000 previously), leading to an unemployment rate of 7.9%, higher than the 7.8% expected. The seasonal adjustment for January was in line with expectations, or 2.120 million, as the actual decline in jobs December to January was a whopping 2.84 million. The NSA Birth/Death adjustment subtracted some 314K jobs in January.
From the Household survey:
The number of unemployed persons, at 12.3 million, was little changed in January. The unemployment rate was 7.9 percent and has been at or near that level since September 2012. (See table A-1.) (See the note and tables B and C for information about annual population adjustments to the household survey estimates.)
Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rates for adult men (7.3 percent), adult women (7.3 percent), teenagers (23.4 percent), whites (7.0 percent), blacks (13.8 percent), and Hispanics (9.7 percent) showed little or no change in January. The jobless rate for Asians was 6.5 percent (not seasonally adjusted), little changed from a year earlier. (See tables A-1, A-2, and A-3.)
In January, the number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) was about unchanged at 4.7 million and accounted for 38.1 percent of the unemployed. (See table A-12.)
Both the employment-population ratio (58.6 percent) and the civilian labor force participation rate (63.6 percent) were
unchanged in January. (See table A-1.)
The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons, at 8.0 million, changed little in January. These individuals were working part time because their hours had been cut back or because they were unable to find a full-time job. (See table A-8.)
And from the Establishment survey:
Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 157,000 in January. In 2012, employment growth averaged 181,000 per month. In January, job gains occurred in retail trade, construction, health care, and wholesale trade, while employment edged down in transportation and warehousing. (See table B-1.)
Employment in retail trade rose by 33,000 in January, compared with an average monthly gain of 20,000 in 2012. Within the industry, job growth continued in January in motor vehicle and parts dealers (+7,000), electronics and appliance stores (+5,000), and clothing stores (+10,000).
In January, employment in construction increased by 28,000. Nearly all of the job growth occurred in specialty trade contractors (+26,000), with the gain about equally split between residential and nonresidential specialty trade contractors. Since reaching a low in January 2011, construction employment has grown by 296,000, with one-third of the gain occurring in the last 4 months. However, the January 2013 level of construction employment remained about 2 million below its previous peak level in April 2006.
Health care continued to add jobs in January (+23,000). Within health care, job growth occurred in ambulatory health care services (+28,000), which includes doctors' offices and outpatient care centers. This gain was partially offset by a loss of 8,000 jobs in nursing and residential care facilities. Over the year, health care employment has increased by 320,000.
Employment increased in wholesale trade (+15,000) in January, with most of the increase occurring in its nondurable goods component (+11,000). Since the recent low point in May 2010, wholesale trade has added 291,000 jobs.
Mining employment increased (+6,000) over the month; employment in this industry has risen by 23,000 over the past 3 months.
Employment edged down in transportation and warehousing in January (-14,000). Couriers and messengers lost 19,000 jobs over the month, following strong seasonal hiring in November and December. Air transportation employment decreased by 5,000 in January.
Manufacturing employment was essentially unchanged in January and has changed little, on
net, since July 2012.
The labor force participation rate remained the same:
Birth death adjustments: