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Goldman Closes Long EURUSD Trade

Tyler Durden's picture




 

There was a time when Goldman's Tom Stolper lost money for Goldman's clients with such speed and fury, it left people's head spin (see here when he was closed out in a matter of days). There was also a time when Stolper was supposed to be stopped out but refused to do so until the EURUSD cross actually closed trading inside his stop zone (which it eventually did). Today, however, the second the EURUSD touched above 1.3700 the Goldman strategist decided to get the hell out of dodge and has picked up his 400 pips since putting on the long EURUSD reco several weeks ago. With that last reco, Stolper has modestly redeemed himself, and all those who had listened to his previous recos have made some 400 pips, which hopefully should compensate for some 5000+ pips in cumulative downside to date.

From Goldman:

Closing our long EUR/$ recommendation after reaching the 1.37 target

 

We had signalled in early January that the fiscal risk premium reduction in the Euro area could push EUR/$ up to 1.37. Moreover, the improved macro outlook after having avoided the 'fiscal cliff' made us confident that a risk-related USD rally was unlikely. As a result, we rolled our existing long EUR/CAD recommendation into a long EUR/$, opened at 1.3270 for a target of 1.37.

 

We do see some additional upside in EUR/$ and keep our 3-, 6- and 12-month forecasts at 1.40 but after some sharp FX moves early in the year, we consider it prudent to stick to the target. We close our recommendation for a potential gain of 3.3%.

 

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Fri, 02/01/2013 - 13:10 | 3206579 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

You have to let the gambling junkies win one every once in a while to keep them at the table.

Fri, 02/01/2013 - 13:34 | 3206675 cifo
cifo's picture

Can TZA actually hit 0?

Fri, 02/01/2013 - 13:46 | 3206722 AlaricBalth
AlaricBalth's picture

Tom Stolper is now, what, 2-14? With that record, its going to be a coin toss between Goldman, the Jacksonville Jaguars and the Kansas City Chiefs to see who gets the NFL first round draft pick.

Fri, 02/01/2013 - 14:04 | 3206757 Comay Mierda
Comay Mierda's picture

a broken clock... 

take a look at the bearish reports out from the banks on gold. makes me smile :)   time for a rally.

Fri, 02/01/2013 - 13:49 | 3206730 Say What Again
Say What Again's picture

TZA won't go to zero, because they'll do a 1 for 4 reverse split.

Its like one of those fractal curves, where the more you zoom in (by doing a reverse split), the more room there is to downside.

They want to keep you in that shit because it is a decaying asset.  They'll sell you that shit all day long.

Fri, 02/01/2013 - 14:17 | 3206808 cifo
cifo's picture

So my 100 shares at $1 will become 25 shares at $4. After another year or so, they will become 5 shares at $4, then 1 share at $4, then what? 0 shares? What is the end game on TZA?

Fri, 02/01/2013 - 13:15 | 3206595 Everybodys All ...
Everybodys All American's picture

From 126 to 137 in three months is excessive. But it tells us how pscho Bernanke and the Fed truly have become in their monetization.

Fri, 02/01/2013 - 13:15 | 3206602 Seasmoke
Seasmoke's picture

God is very pleased with the increase in his portfolio

Fri, 02/01/2013 - 13:19 | 3206614 Theta_Burn
Theta_Burn's picture

"bitpips" CPU's of the world unite..

See a trend here?

Fri, 02/01/2013 - 13:19 | 3206615 ReptilianSlaveMaster
ReptilianSlaveMaster's picture

I survived the 2012 sell off is what my moto will be for the rest of my life - the london whale and european crisis almost destroyed us but in the end the heroic Obama and Bernanke stood up to the deflation demons and said no America will live forever and we all lived happily ever after and broke Dow 15,000 the next week to what became known as the greatest rally of the millenia

Fri, 02/01/2013 - 13:19 | 3206617 unwashedmass
unwashedmass's picture

 

ya gotta let the muppets win every now and then so you have some shred of credibility. i look for the "losing" streak to resume within a matter of days. After all they have to get that 400 bps back from Seasame Street. 

Fri, 02/01/2013 - 13:20 | 3206623 Orly
Orly's picture

I case you haven't noticed, trading 4X is difficult at best, especially in this insane, never-before-witnessed-in-the-annals-of-history environment.

Congrats to Mr. Stolper.

:D

Fri, 02/01/2013 - 13:36 | 3206690 Orly
Orly's picture

At least some of us here are decent sports.  Thanks for the greenies.

Fri, 02/01/2013 - 16:47 | 3207422 fiddler_on_the_roof
fiddler_on_the_roof's picture

you should have read FOFOA. you would have have made money by taking long EUR/USD. Now let EUR take us to $1.50 and above.

Fri, 02/01/2013 - 13:22 | 3206630 Timmay
Timmay's picture

How much longer will Germany tolerate losing the currency devaluation game?

War reparations are about done....

Fri, 02/01/2013 - 13:39 | 3206696 otto skorzeny
otto skorzeny's picture

I never understand why people/countries pay off huge debts-like the old saying goes "you owe a bank $1000 they have you by the balls-you owe them $1million-you have them by the balls"

Fri, 02/01/2013 - 13:20 | 3206631 jmcadg
jmcadg's picture

To put it in perspective, I could have made that call, and I'm a shit trader.

Fri, 02/01/2013 - 13:23 | 3206634 jmcadg
jmcadg's picture

I didn't, which says it all really ;(

Fri, 02/01/2013 - 13:24 | 3206639 LongSoupLine
LongSoupLine's picture

Fuck you Stolper and Goldman.

 

Shove your fucking pips up your stinking fucking asses you fucking crooked fucking pukes.

Fri, 02/01/2013 - 13:40 | 3206706 otto skorzeny
otto skorzeny's picture

soup-I wish CNBC would hire you to be on 24/7 as a counterpoint to all of the ass-clowns on that channel-I would watch that shit

Fri, 02/01/2013 - 13:53 | 3206734 LongSoupLine
LongSoupLine's picture

so do I otto...so do I.  Those fucker's heads would explode...and I would laugh with great fucking delight.

Fri, 02/01/2013 - 14:10 | 3206785 Freddie
Freddie's picture

TV and Hollywood are for retard serfs.  If you watch it then you are supporting the ponzi, The Matrix, Ob-MAO and your serfdom. 

Fri, 02/01/2013 - 13:26 | 3206640 Racer
Racer's picture

Considering his stop was the same distance as his gain from where he put the position on, I don't consider that a good trade at all despite his being right... for a change....

Fri, 02/01/2013 - 13:25 | 3206649 No Euros please...
No Euros please we're British's picture

Goldman must have lost a packet on that short position if they really have closed it. But I guess long term they'll have the inside track from their boy Mario.

Fri, 02/01/2013 - 13:29 | 3206657 FunkyOldGeezer
FunkyOldGeezer's picture

Almost anyone could have easily picked up more than those 400 pips. I do wonder what sort of analysis these guys use. Maybe it's the thought of losing Millions (or Billions) that makes them ultra safe, although, entry at 132.70 was a strange level to go in at.

I still reckon it has some more upswing left, but what do I know?

Fri, 02/01/2013 - 13:39 | 3206695 sockratte
sockratte's picture

maybe one should expect some action from ex goldmanite draghi...

Fri, 02/01/2013 - 13:44 | 3206720 fuu
fuu's picture

Stolperd in the Brusca.

Fri, 02/01/2013 - 14:02 | 3206763 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

So it is going to 1.50 again then.

Fri, 02/01/2013 - 14:07 | 3206771 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

It's a good thing he didn't listen to the Citi FX euro parity blather. You go Tom, pick up those pennies in front of the steam roller. Sometimes ya gets the pennies, sometimes ya gets the steam roller.

Fri, 02/01/2013 - 14:17 | 3206810 Whiteshadowmovement
Whiteshadowmovement's picture

Lol!

"3-, 6- and 12-month forecasts at 1.40 "

The "market" eveybody...

Fri, 02/01/2013 - 14:18 | 3206818 Whiteshadowmovement
Whiteshadowmovement's picture

Lol!

"3-, 6- and 12-month forecasts at 1.40 "

The "market" eveybody...

Fri, 02/01/2013 - 14:27 | 3206835 Iam Yue2
Iam Yue2's picture

You are only as good as your last trade. Stolper for King!

Fri, 02/01/2013 - 15:21 | 3207025 orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

If the Euro tanks (GS has left the building now), the USD should take off.

 

http://bullandbearmash.com/chart/euro-monthly-completing-wave-2-wave-3-f...

 

Euro is completing wave 2 up.

Fri, 02/01/2013 - 17:33 | 3207559 ToNYC
ToNYC's picture

Big FAIL for Tom Stolpers when the prop desk fades all his calls. He'll be walking the plank shortly. Maybe his brother Jack will get off the bus and he can just fade Away.

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