How Today's "Strong" Jobs Report Led To 115,000 Job Losses

Tyler Durden's picture

While it is enticing to fall for the same old trick of reading the "quantitative", or headline, jobs data, driven entirely by the Establishment Survey, which as the BLS itself showed today, is nothing but mere noise based on seasonal adjustments and population estimates which is revised at least once a year based on new and improved exit assumptions, below we show the actual unvarnished truth contained in today's jobs reports.

Recall that in our pre-NFP post we pointed out something critical: "an even more disturbing trend is the conversion of America into a gerontocratic worker society, where the bulk of jobs are handed out to those 55 and over, which puts all young workers, not to mention college graduates, at a major disadvantage relative to far more experienced older workers." And sure enough, a quick update of the jobs by age-group change in January based on Household Survey data, the same data that showed that the unemployment rate actually rose from 7.8% to 7.9% (to give Bernanke more runway for QEternity as we predicted in December) shows that in the past month, 115,000 jobs were.... lost?

Indeed, as the chart below demonstrates, based on BLS data which breaks down jobs gains and losses granularly by age group, in January there was a total of 115,000 jobs losses, with the biggest losses once again concentrated in the 20-24, and 25-54 age groups, a total of 205,000 job losses, offset purely by job gains in the 16-19 age category: hardly the "quality" of jobs worth writing home about.

And another perspective: in January jobs in the 16-54 age group declined by a total of -99K, while even America's aged workers, those 55 and over, saw their first sequential jobs loss of 16,000 jobs, since July 2012. In Total, some 2.8 million jobs in the 26-54 age group have been lost since january 2009, offset by 3.95 million gains in the 55-69 age group.

Good jobs report indeed.

Source: BLS

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Say What Again's picture


All we care about today is DOW 14,000

yogibear's picture

Certainly, that's all Bubble Bernanke and the Fed look at. They have a mandate for 6.5% unemployment but they were planning for QE to infinity anyway.

TruthInSunshine's picture

NPR (National Public Radio; Hey, I listen for entertainment value-- it's the funniest shit anywhere) had an economist and an anal-cyst on this morning to explain that their biggest concern was that the 8 million long term unemployed (in reality, closer to 15 million ltu if one counts those actually trying, and 35 million ltu if one counts inner cities) will buy the tagline of "recovery" in greater numbers, and hence now try and find jobs again, which will cause the unemployment rate to absolutely skyrocket.

So that is just yet more evidence of how robust this recovery is.

Say What Again's picture

There it is -- DOW printed 14,000

Now I can call the strippers & start drinking.

IridiumRebel's picture


MillionDollarBonus_'s picture

It's so amusing to watch ZH doomer libertarians squirm at this positive economic news. This jobs report is evidence that not only is the global recovery real, but it is accelerating. The S&P is rocketting above 1500. If we get a a strong weekly close above 1500 today (and it looks like we almost certainly will), we are in for a simply spectacular stock market rally. Shorts better brace themselves, because they are in for a rude awakening.

Carl Spackler's picture

Bullish, I say, sheeple. Bullish.

Ray1968's picture

Gold got its regularly scheduled kill shot from the usual fuckity fuck mother-fuckers.

eatthebanksters's picture

MDB, if I did drugs I would really want to have some of whatever you are on...

orangegeek's picture

Euphoric mentality usually at major tops.  Keep shaking your pom-poms.

IridiumRebel's picture

DUDE! I'm totally happy! I am down in the D.R. YO' with Menendez rocking racing stripes of coke from 16 year old hooker's asses!

Overfed's picture

16? Sheeit, try 12. BTW, the red wasn't from me.

Overfed's picture

I can't believe we're gettin' red arrows for baggin' on a dirtbag, sexual predator Senator. WTF? DNC in here, or what?

ljag's picture

Where is the sarc/?
If the DOW ans SP are up .......why not ramp up the numbers to double that so I can getadiscount from my coke dealer?

Banksters's picture


But actually, he thought as he readjusted the Ministry of Plenty's figures, it was not even forgery. It was merely the substitution of one piece of nonsense for another. Most of the material that you were dealing with had no connection with anything in the real world, not even the kind of connection that is contained in a direct lie. Statistics were just as much a fantasy in their original version as in their rectified version. A great deal of the time you were expected to make them up out of your head. For example, the Ministry of Plenty's forecast had estimated the output of boots for the quarter at a hundred and forty-five million pairs. The actual output was given as sixty-two millions. Winston, however, in rewriting the forecast, marked the figure down to fifty-seven millions, so as to allow for the usual claim that the quota had been overfilled. In any case, sixty-two millions was no nearer the truth than fifty-seven millions, or than a hundred and forty-five millions. Very likely no boots had been produced at all. Likelier still, nobody knew how many had been produced, much less cared. A11 one knew was that every quarter astronomical numbers of boots were produced on paper, while perhaps half the population of Oceania went barefoot. And so it was with every class of recorded fact, great or small. Everything faded away into a shadow-world in which, finally, even the date of the year had become uncertain.

jeff montanye's picture

many, many books and writers age badly.  1984 and orwell not so much.

and i thought it was a satire about communism.  but, hell, i voted for obama, once.

too soon old; too late wise.



Bad Attitude's picture

MDB, please stop drinking the Kool-Aid. Today's unemployment numbers will pump the DOW a little, but that's all. But, since the DOW seems to have no correlation to economic reality, does it really matter. The fact is that Dear Leader is systematically killing the economy with new regulations and taxes that stifle job growth - and Dear Leader wants even more taxes. Obamacare is going to be a big job killer - killing quality jobs.

The only "positive" aspect I see of these new jobs numbers is that the labor force participation rate is flat at 63.6 percent, but the trend remains downward.

Nels's picture

MDB has to keep drinking that koolaid, or there'd be no way for him to write those wonderfully hallucinogenic and immensely entertaining posts.

Too Big 2's picture

Hey MDB, where would the stock and bond markets be without all the life support mechanisms employed by the FED?  Put that in your crack pipe and smoke it!     

Shell Game's picture

I haven't watched CNBS for years, but I almost want to turn it on to watch the Parade of Fools pull out their Dow 14K hats.  Almost..

IridiumRebel's picture

LIESman just shot a load onto Simon.

Carl Spackler's picture

I haven't watched them in years, either...pablum for the drone's mind, and clowns really bug me.

However, I must say that last week's epic cat fight between Icahn and Ackerman was great theater !

bullmarket's picture

Probably haven't watched it since 2009- it's been quite a run. Keep tuned out.

Blano's picture

I watch American Greed sometimes, but that's it.

Shell Game's picture

Remind me of the part where the long term unemployed come back into official BLS statistics for simply looking for work?  

No, this society is going to collapse with 3.9% unemployment, 1.5% inflation and DOW 17,000.  The control freaks will be shocked, shocked! they will say, it will be the incompetent EU's and evil China's fault. So to war we go! Buy war bonds patriots!    Fucking. Illusion. 

Long guillotines..

tango's picture

No, NPR is scared to death that Americans will someday start blaming Obama for this mess and his "progressive" policies will be caught in the crossfire.   Believe me, every NPR story is at heart an ideological piece promoting some hair-brained idea. 

TheMerryPrankster's picture

NPR stories are told so simply that they cannot be anything but simple propaganda. Listen how they talk like they are speaking to 5 year olds. no big words, no context, no in edepth discussion. Just rote ideas repeated over and over like drilling multiplcation tables into a child.

Anyone who swallows their bullshit is so badly maleducated they can't be reasoned with.

Of course the conservative press is essentially the same. Its all propaganda. Elevator music to mask the moans of death as we stand in line for the economic firing squad.

Project Mockingbird, CIA read it and weep 5 corporations own 99% of the American Media. Who controls the dialogue controls the perception and for most perception is reality.

Unemployment is up and the recovery is going great. War is peace, Love is hate.

rinse repeat.


mightycluck's picture

I saw similar numbers here:

169,000 drop out of labor force in January, unemployment rises. This is really bizarro world!


eatthebanksters's picture

I'm me where the jobs are for people older than 55! (Especially in the real estate industry).

Overfed's picture

There are gobs of jobs out there. It's just that they are part-time shit jobs, but there are a lot of them.

SDShack's picture

And with 0zer0care, that's all you will ever find. Part time jobs to stay below the 30 hour per week threshold that requires employers to provide healthcare. Or fulltime jobs, with no benefits at all. It's called spreading the wealth around.

tango's picture

Lots of jobs in our area (affluent) if you have a degree, experience and will work hard.  Then again, for the vast majority that don't meet that criteria there are countless fast food and mall jobs.  Despite the bitching over unemployment, all the outdoor jobs are still 99% Hispanic.  Not blaming them since I use them for their punctuality and hard work.

TheMerryPrankster's picture

Billion squared.......Start felling the forest, we're gonna need more trees to make paper to print all the money we be makings.

Full time employment working for the FED using a permanent marker to add zeros to all the federal reserve notes so they don't have to print more trillion dollar bills.

Inflation will never happen, because the economic system will fail. Long starvation and dysentary.

Water will be the new currency. Get a lake while you can.

Totentänzerlied's picture

The water is the easy part, it's getting the rights to use it that's tricky.

ejmoosa's picture

With the Revised BLS Data, job creation fell from 311k in Jan 2012 to 157k in Jan 2013.  

Feel the boom!

Dooud's picture

Why do I need a job, man?

sodbuster's picture

You don't, man, you're the Dooud! Ah, fuck it!!

Unprepared's picture

You look like 50+ year old.

Carl Spackler's picture

...especially when "Obama is paying for" your cell phone, mortgage, and food/booze/lottery tickets (with those debit cards)

tbone654's picture

Once you have been on Public Assistance and realize you can't even spend that much in a month on food, and also realize you have the best healthcare on the planet ($0 co-pay and the doctors love to run more and more expensive tests), and you get rent assistance, and all you have to do is fill out one form, and the webpage comes back and tells you ALL the programs you qualify for...

All you have to do is remember to vote Communist Democrat for as long as you want it to continue...

What a country...  It was very revealing...  USSA... USSA... USSA... USSA... USSA...

semperfi's picture

need new law:  can't vote if you are getting a govt stipend of any sort EXCEPT people physically disabled on-the-govt-job (ie, military, etc)

tbone654's picture

It makes sense...  but it's more likely that people on the government DOLE will be given 2 votes, than no vote...

Back in the day...  Giving blacks 3/5 of a vote was the only way the South could have an impact on national politics...  By giving everyone of a certain class 2 votes today, the democratic communists could assure their legacy...

Totentänzerlied's picture

That would be idiotic. While many poor people do not vote (yes, it's true, and if you think about it for a second, it makes sense), the fact that they have the right to vote (on paper) is really what matters. Just like you have the right to keep and bear arms (on paper).

azzhatter's picture

I'm 60, maybe I'll go out and look for a job. Seems to be booming in my age group.

DaveyJones's picture

how are your coffee skills?

Carl Spackler's picture

Azz, are you familiar with the IBM Selectrix, and how many words per minute can you type ?