How Today's "Strong" Jobs Report Led To 115,000 Job Losses

Tyler Durden's picture

While it is enticing to fall for the same old trick of reading the "quantitative", or headline, jobs data, driven entirely by the Establishment Survey, which as the BLS itself showed today, is nothing but mere noise based on seasonal adjustments and population estimates which is revised at least once a year based on new and improved exit assumptions, below we show the actual unvarnished truth contained in today's jobs reports.

Recall that in our pre-NFP post we pointed out something critical: "an even more disturbing trend is the conversion of America into a gerontocratic worker society, where the bulk of jobs are handed out to those 55 and over, which puts all young workers, not to mention college graduates, at a major disadvantage relative to far more experienced older workers." And sure enough, a quick update of the jobs by age-group change in January based on Household Survey data, the same data that showed that the unemployment rate actually rose from 7.8% to 7.9% (to give Bernanke more runway for QEternity as we predicted in December) shows that in the past month, 115,000 jobs were.... lost?

Indeed, as the chart below demonstrates, based on BLS data which breaks down jobs gains and losses granularly by age group, in January there was a total of 115,000 jobs losses, with the biggest losses once again concentrated in the 20-24, and 25-54 age groups, a total of 205,000 job losses, offset purely by job gains in the 16-19 age category: hardly the "quality" of jobs worth writing home about.

And another perspective: in January jobs in the 16-54 age group declined by a total of -99K, while even America's aged workers, those 55 and over, saw their first sequential jobs loss of 16,000 jobs, since July 2012. In Total, some 2.8 million jobs in the 26-54 age group have been lost since january 2009, offset by 3.95 million gains in the 55-69 age group.

Good jobs report indeed.

Source: BLS

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tbone654's picture

The problem is, old farts like us (I'm 55) have to, and can work, because of the experience gap...  My mom (77) lives with me... My Daughter (26) lives with my wife and I and 3 young sons...  (note: I guess that makes me a "boomer sandwich")...   Like so many others I HAVE to work... and am thankful that I can work, and can make a gazillion $$$ a year in a high tech job while it's still possible...

When my dad was 55, he was pushed into retirement, but he didn't have his mom and all his kids still living at home...  So it's more than just preference keeping older guys like me in the work force longer, in essence, blocking my own kids of valuable jobs, and inflicting "failure to launch" syndrome on our young 20 somethings today...  In many cases, it's just unavoidable...

DaveyJones's picture

like most of the world, and after its short empire ride, this place will soon have multiple generations under one roof 

Totentänzerlied's picture

Without the requisite, yes I say requisite, culture and values to make it work. Gonna get real fun.

Terminus C's picture

Gains, losses, what does it matter, we are on the road to recovery... just ask your fellow pleb, they'll tell you.

Rainman's picture

,,, yup, tried to sell my Dow 10k hat in a garage sale for 50 takers. 

yogibear's picture

Well Spain and Greece have over 50% unemployed youth. Guess the US is doing well in comparison. 

The BLS can continue to spin the numbers, it's good at that.

q99x2's picture

First they lie to us. Then they shoot us.

DaveyJones's picture

then they give our children the funeral bill

Shizzmoney's picture

First they lie to us. Then they shoot us.

You forgot one:

They lie to us

They THEN take all of our money (what little we have left)

AND THEN they shoot us.

Now, it's not a totally bad thing for the government and Wall St.  Killing off people is a great way to lower the unemployment rate.

DaveyJones's picture

strong like an odor

Shizzmoney's picture

Correspond this chart with the voting participation rate, by age.

It would probably will explain everything.

TheMerryPrankster's picture

yeah cause voting is so meaningful. Lets see last presidential election the choice was Black Harvard Law graduate or White Harvard Law graduate.

With such breath of choices, certainly our votes are meaningful.

They pick who you get to vote for and then let you vote so you feel like you're participating. your just pissing in the wind and can't understand why you are all wet and cold.

Totentänzerlied's picture

Obviously you don't understand our wonderful democracy. True, voting does not work the way it was advertised. But it does work - to buy favors from the politicians who are busy screwing you.

IridiumRebel's picture


Mike in GA's picture



No worries....Harry sez "we're in a recovery"Harry sez "we're in a recovery"Harry sez "we're in a recovery"Harry sez "we're in a recovery"Harry sez "we're in a recovery"Harry sez "we're in a recovery"Harry sez "we're in a recovery"Harry sez "we're in a recovery"Harry sez "we're in a recovery"Harry sez "we're in a recovery"Harry sez "we're in a recovery"Harry sez "we're in a recovery"Harry sez "we're in a recovery"Harry sez "we're in a recovery"

And he's a Sinator so he's smart, right?



CaptainSpaulding's picture

Im done reading the chart Doc.  Did i pass my eye exam?

TheMerryPrankster's picture

No you passed a kidney stone, but it did have some writing on it.

TrumpXVI's picture

My grand nephew is in the 20 - 24 age group.  

He has a job.

He works on a "farm" in an undisclosed location somewhere in California.  He's paid in cash; no W-2 to worry about.  He has no fixed address; lives in his tent somewhere on the farm property sleeping at night right next to his warm and snuggly Great Pyrenees/Newfoundland mix guard dog.

Wake up and smell the coffee, America.  The future is here, right now.


Curt W's picture

I love the smell of pot in the mountain morning air.

Dooud's picture smells like .....victory!

tbone654's picture

It sounds good... but what do I do with my mother (77) wife (47) daughter (26) and 3 boys (10, 8, 8) who all live with me?

I think my advice to my family is: Don't have kids, don't go to college, don't trade in cash, and barter your way through life...  sounds romantic hey?  no more white picket fence, 35 year factory job, 2 cars in the garage... no more security...  BUT NO TAXES...

I should have gone that route 35 years ago...  no home, no worries, smoke pot...  

oh! the wrong turns one can make...

Totentänzerlied's picture

"The future is here, right now."

And it's so bright I need sunglasses!

fonzannoon's picture

Did someone just knock gold down $12 while I was taking a piss?

ZeroAvatar's picture

How's this for Orwellian:  (Yahoo Headline)  "Hiring slow but steady, (COOL!)  Economy adds 157,000 jobs (Fantastic!)  Rate up to 7.9% (HUH?)


So there you have it:  Hiring is 'up', yet unemployment rate 'increases'.  Muppets must think 'rate is up to 7.9%' means HIRING RATE, not the UNEMPLOYMENT RATE. 


I just can't believe my lying eyes.  What we have heah is a FAIL-yuh to co-MUNI-cate.  My wife thinks I'm crazy.  I'm beginning to wonder.  She DID notice the spike in gasoline, mentioned it to me last nite.  I gotta go. I'm gonna go put my Psionic Headgear on and focus my thoughts. Has anyone seen my Reynolds Wrap? 

Shizzmoney's picture

Anyway to get Corporate America to make you think, "ALL IS WELL!!!!!111"

Sadly for them, it IS good.  The problem is that the executives, bankers, investors, and middle managers only compromise 20% of America.

But our govt only cares that the 20% do well; they'll only tend to the rest when we start to riot.


Totentänzerlied's picture

"But our govt only cares that the 20% do well;"

Cut the leftist populist pandering crap. The state cares about getting it's cut of your money. If you have lots of money - like the people you are referring to - it will use kid-gloves instead of billy-clubs to take its cut. But if you have a metric fuckton of money, you wrote the f'ing tax code. Those are the people you need to worry about. Not "the 20%".

tbone654's picture

This has happened before...  Those with some logic capacity know it's a joke...  But here's what happens: 

Similar to 2007, when I absolutely KNEW the housing bubble was going to BURST sure as anything...  I thought I could jump in real quick, and buy 5 houses and flip them so fast, because everyone else was making money, even though I KNEW it would POP...  That was October 15th 2007, and I picked the absolute TOP of the housing bubble to buy my first 5 houses...  Even though I KNEW everything was going to head south at some point...  And had known for years...

Well you all know this is rediculous...  These JOB numbers SCREAM for a recession/depression...  But it's NOT going to happen until everyone's in...  The "paper boy" starts talking to me about the market and you know it's the top... but he's not there yet...  So all you who like me think this makes no sense, will at some point try to catch the tail end of this rally, and POP!  there it goes...  Not until you get in, despite your best judgement, will this market go to where it belongs...  60-70% lower...

This has happened before...  Have a nice day!

tbone654's picture

So throw all your shit into this market, so It doesn't have to be me again that crater's this thing...  I'm counting on all of you, despite all the signs, to suck it up and get this thing over with...  Put all your money in the USSA stock market, please!

tbone654's picture

c'mon... We're running trillion dollar deficits AND there are no jobs...  What more do you want to get you to finally BUY, BUY, BUY!!!

TheMerryPrankster's picture

Eating a can of alphabet soup at the university of Alabama now counts as 2 credits in remedial english.

thismarketisrigged's picture

get the fuck out of the market fed. let ir run its own,14000 guys fuck them

MFLTucson's picture

Fraud, deception, lies, manipulation and false economic numbers.  That is what is driving the US financial market.  Have fun because this will eand in severe pain with a total collapse!

TheMerryPrankster's picture

Lies, Damn Lies, and government statistics.

Bernanke's plan for economic recovery, in 3 points.

adr's picture

The household survey has been showing actual losses for months, and any gains in the past year have been way under the BSL.

There have not been any gains in total employment for the past four years using true hard data.

The jobs that were replaced, yes if you lost your job and you got another one a job was not "added", were replaced with lower paying jobs.

DOW 14k means anyone working productive labor just got a larger diameter dildo shoved up their ass.

roadhazard's picture

I guarantee there are very few 60 year olds being hired that require eight hours of physical activity like building and loading and climbing. I do see old ladies at the registers in retail stores. I do not see a lot of old men working at all, maybe at the auto parts store. Most corporate business even though they say they don't, force 50+ employees out for younger people they can get cheap.

The youth need to hit the street and raise hell instead of whine on the internet, bitches. Y'all need to flash mob for jobs instead of MCHammer videos.

Shizzmoney's picture are totally right.

We have a lot of old people at my job, including a 78 year old (!!!!).  However, a few have been phased out in the last few months to cut cost; younger workers have been rehired to replace them, but at 30% of the cost.

So even when young people DO get jobs, it's not enough to keep up with debt payments, inflation of the cost of life, NEVERMIND being able to afford consumer luxuries.

I really still am puzzled how we haven't revolted yet.  But I say wait til 2015-2016 for that to happen when Obama and the new Republican President (prob Christie) ax entitlements.

BeerBrewer09's picture

they won't ax anything. they're stuck in print mode. you'll get your entitlement, government inflation rate will be 1.2%, enemployment will still be 7.9%, loaf of bread will be $10, gallon of gas $10, and the previously employed young men & women marched off to war to die *I mean solve the enemployment problem*

once inflation hits in a big way, there will be no way to control it. raise rates? LOL. more like price controls and shortages blamed on foreign countries.

Totentänzerlied's picture

"I really still am puzzled how we haven't revolted yet"

Because we're the freest bestest god-blessedest nation on Earth, ignorant terrrist!

rwe2late's picture

 Fear not unemployment,

the government has taken steps to insure that everyone has a job.

The US prison industry assures there can be a job for everyone.

The steadily inreasing prison population of 2 million and rising (at least 80% imprisoned for non-violent offenses) find jobs at $0.25 per hour with shared room and rations.

The Jim Crow model of employ needs no longer be limited to minorities. thanks to Prohibition II (aka "war on drugs").

The Patriot-NDAA acts offer potential promise of even more jobs.  



world_debt_slave's picture

yep, I moved from Cali in July 2012 and where I am now working from self employed to the W2 slave again, this business will not hire full time and only part time, minimum wage.

The other day a manager there told me they are cutting more full time employees from the payroll.

But where I live now, I have better job prospects than in Cali. Interviewed yesterday for a state gov job and also a private manufacturing job, full time.

Now time to get ready for my part time meal ticket.

Inthemix96's picture

Speaking of jobs,

The two daft Irish lads Paddy and Mick hate theirs on a building site.

Paddy says to Mick, "How Am I gonna get the day off the day?  Am sick as fuck".

Mick says, "Act daft, the gaffer will send you home".

Paddy jumps up on to a rafter, hangs upside down and starts screaming, "Weee, am a lightbulb, am a lightbulb!!".

The gaffer comes in after hearing the noise and says, "Paddy, fuck off to the doctors and take the week off, you've went daft".

Mick starts packing his gear away and the gaffer says, "Where the fuck you going?".

Mick, quick as a flash, "Fuck you mate if you think am working in the dark".


Just Ice's picture

Thanks for the golden oldie  ;-)