• Monetary Metals
    05/02/2016 - 01:28
    The price of gold shot up this week, and silver moved proportionally. Headlines are screaming for gold to hit $10,000 or $50,000. Does this alleged new bull market have legs?

How Today's "Strong" Jobs Report Led To 115,000 Job Losses

Tyler Durden's picture




 

While it is enticing to fall for the same old trick of reading the "quantitative", or headline, jobs data, driven entirely by the Establishment Survey, which as the BLS itself showed today, is nothing but mere noise based on seasonal adjustments and population estimates which is revised at least once a year based on new and improved exit assumptions, below we show the actual unvarnished truth contained in today's jobs reports.

Recall that in our pre-NFP post we pointed out something critical: "an even more disturbing trend is the conversion of America into a gerontocratic worker society, where the bulk of jobs are handed out to those 55 and over, which puts all young workers, not to mention college graduates, at a major disadvantage relative to far more experienced older workers." And sure enough, a quick update of the jobs by age-group change in January based on Household Survey data, the same data that showed that the unemployment rate actually rose from 7.8% to 7.9% (to give Bernanke more runway for QEternity as we predicted in December) shows that in the past month, 115,000 jobs were.... lost?

Indeed, as the chart below demonstrates, based on BLS data which breaks down jobs gains and losses granularly by age group, in January there was a total of 115,000 jobs losses, with the biggest losses once again concentrated in the 20-24, and 25-54 age groups, a total of 205,000 job losses, offset purely by job gains in the 16-19 age category: hardly the "quality" of jobs worth writing home about.

And another perspective: in January jobs in the 16-54 age group declined by a total of -99K, while even America's aged workers, those 55 and over, saw their first sequential jobs loss of 16,000 jobs, since July 2012. In Total, some 2.8 million jobs in the 26-54 age group have been lost since january 2009, offset by 3.95 million gains in the 55-69 age group.

Good jobs report indeed.

Source: BLS

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Fri, 02/01/2013 - 11:59 | 3206358 Inthemix96
Inthemix96's picture

This bloke is driving along in his car, distracted by the lovely looking bird on the side-walk when SMASH, he hits the bloke in front of him.

He jumps out looking sick as fuck and looks at the bloke who gets out the car he hit.

Turns out its the dwarf-man himself, the bernank, the dwarf bernank says, "I'm not fucking happy".

The bloke says, "Really?, which one are you then?".

Boom fucking boom.

Fri, 02/01/2013 - 12:29 | 3206442 optimator
optimator's picture

No Joke, true story:

Minority gets job and sits next to old employee.  Minority late the first day.  Old guy says, don't do that again, it'll go against you, I never am late or miss a day.  Minority takes one sick day a week, old guy says don't do that.  Old guy asks the boss for a day off to take daughter to her freshman year of college.  Boss says, can't spare you that day.  Old saddened guy goes back to sit next to minority.  Minority says, with a smile, "Who Da Fool".

Fri, 02/01/2013 - 12:55 | 3206520 roadhazard
roadhazard's picture

Some carpenters were doing a remodel on a home and the mother let her five year old daughter hang around with them. When all the sudden the carpenters left the mother asked the daughter what happened. " The fuckin' sheet rock didn't show up", she said.

Fri, 02/01/2013 - 11:29 | 3206235 Just Ice
Just Ice's picture

Some guy from Jefferies -- with receding and graying hair, no less -- just proclaimed that the higher the market goes, the more "wealth" Americans have.  Just goes to show wisdom does not necessarily come with age.

Fri, 02/01/2013 - 11:35 | 3206262 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

I saw that Just Ice. That guy was funny. His target was "higher".

The sad part is they throw that guy in the dumpster when they go to commercial. Just because.

Fri, 02/01/2013 - 11:52 | 3206342 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

What he failed to mention is that the Americans he was talking about represents about 1% of the people.

Fri, 02/01/2013 - 14:13 | 3206760 Just Ice
Just Ice's picture

1% have bigger numbers on stock portfolios while rest only blessed with diminished purchasing power and higher gas and food prices.  Wealthier, my hat.

Huge spec ramp in copper should make sure lot more things succumb to commodity inflation.  (Altho' seems rather silly since copper ran from 58 to 460 on back of U.S. RE boom turned housing bubble, housing bubbles Europe, Australia, Canada, warehoused stockpiles for use as ATM in China, China's build out of big empty cities, new car sales spurred through cash for clunkers...all of which are history and not going to repeat despite Bernanke's bubblicious efforts.  Nonetheless, here copper sits, less than a buck off all time high.)

Yay for speculative wealth at everyone else's expense in real world costs!  jerks..

Fri, 02/01/2013 - 11:38 | 3206277 Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

Hey Al Gore, you piece fo shit, here's An Inconvenient Truth: economic inequality in American cities is on the rise

http://t.co/SJbmkwKd

Fri, 02/01/2013 - 15:43 | 3207130 Totentänzerlied
Totentänzerlied's picture

I don't see where economic equality was ever promised in any law or founding document.

Fri, 02/01/2013 - 17:39 | 3207581 Accounting101
Accounting101's picture

How about a democracy? Was that promised in any law or founding document?

Economic inequality and democracies can't hang together.

Fri, 02/01/2013 - 16:48 | 3207423 e-recep
e-recep's picture

thats what becoming a third world country is.

Fri, 02/01/2013 - 11:53 | 3206340 Never One Roach
Never One Roach's picture

The kid next door has $102k in student loans ....turned down several jobs for about $65k saying, "I'm worth more then that."

 

That's part of the problem. It's deep. It's cultural. It's becoming immutable.

Fri, 02/01/2013 - 11:59 | 3206364 the grateful un...
the grateful unemployed's picture

its a bitch, with his education he can't afford to go to work

Fri, 02/01/2013 - 12:16 | 3206411 Aegelis
Aegelis's picture

Hahahaha!  That made my day, thanks.  Nobody is 'worth' more than anyone else, we all compete for the best paying jobs by fulfilling their requirements. 

Fri, 02/01/2013 - 15:45 | 3207141 Totentänzerlied
Totentänzerlied's picture

Surely you jest. "Turned down several jobs" ... how absurd, there are no jobs.

Fri, 02/01/2013 - 11:54 | 3206343 Pinocchio
Pinocchio's picture

when I go to the table, I do not get those numbers. I get this

16-19 – up 106,000 jobs!!

20-24 – down 99,000 (you know…. Those that have just graduated)

25-54 – down 106,000 (you know… the most productive in society)

55 and over – up 11,000

For a grand total of down 88,000 right? (Your 55-69 is wrong... but...)

I dunno… maybe I can’t do math.

Let’s look a little closer.

Take a look at the 16 to 19 year old line. It says that we went from 4,402,000 in Dec to 4,508,000 for a total gain of 106,000. Ok. Check.

Let’s look at 20-24. 13,570,000 to 13,471,000. Loss of 99k. Ok. Check.

Let’s look at 25 to 54. 94,253,000 to 94,147,000. Loss of 106K. Check.

And finally 55-69. 31,153,000 to 31,164,000. Gain of 11k. check.

Now let’s go to the fuzzy math line at the top. Total, 16 years and over. 143,305,000 to 143,322,000. Gain of 17k. HUH?

What am I missing?

Fri, 02/01/2013 - 12:08 | 3206391 Never One Roach
Never One Roach's picture

Pinocchio, you need an masters in Mythology to understand their numbers.

Fri, 02/01/2013 - 12:38 | 3206459 Orwell was right
Orwell was right's picture

Not missing anything....looks good

Fri, 02/01/2013 - 11:58 | 3206361 zkay
zkay's picture

Pretty soon we'll see a US version of those "save the african children" commercials, but they'll be featuring college aged kids that are surviving by eating MRE's and tang.

If you would like to help such a person, my bitcoin hash is below. : )

 

12imfrCcAJvc2GRBoBaaHpYwvYFU2H21NC

Fri, 02/01/2013 - 12:36 | 3206452 Orwell was right
Orwell was right's picture

LOL...

Fri, 02/01/2013 - 15:46 | 3207152 Totentänzerlied
Totentänzerlied's picture

"MRE's and tang"

No, ramen and beer. You're out of the loop.

Fri, 02/01/2013 - 12:05 | 3206382 the grateful un...
the grateful unemployed's picture

this is a generational thing. who buys most of the new cars? probably the 55-69 age group, when they were growing up there were two paths to freedom (moving out of the parents house) that was a job and a car. alan greenspan celebrated the mobility of the american work force, if you needed work and the job was two states away, you packed up and you drove there. now the automobile drives itself, and the assembly line is all robotic. but we still count jobs, as though this was a measure of economic activity. jobs and employment will eventually disappear as a measure, even the FED policy parodies the obvious by setting interest rates to employment, that was the biggest joke bernanke has yet pulled on us (but they don't give you a PHD for being simple minded)

Fri, 02/01/2013 - 15:53 | 3207191 Totentänzerlied
Totentänzerlied's picture

"but we still count jobs, as though this was a measure of economic activity."

It never was. Just look at government jobs. No, really. Either the profit from some productive labor must be stolen, or more claims on future productive private labor must be created to finance them, and all the people doing these jobs would otherwise be engaged in productive labor. When you consider economic entropy (greed, corruption, inefficiency, waste), lack of pricing mechanism, and ensuing costs, it's net-negative.

Fri, 02/01/2013 - 12:07 | 3206383 Orwell was right
Orwell was right's picture

Wihile I completely agree that employment sucks right now....this article neglects to mention that all those "well employed" 55-year-olds work at McDonalds.  

A significant number of those folks got "right sized" "off-shored" and otherwise moved out of well paying middle class jobs, and are now scrambling to make ends meet working at Staples, McDonalds, Panera, and the Price Chopper grocery store. 

I am growing weary of the thinly veiled tone of "bashing the old folks" in article such as this.

Fri, 02/01/2013 - 12:29 | 3206438 SmallerGovNow2
SmallerGovNow2's picture

Can you see the 47 million food stamp recipients in lines around the country? At 2 linear feet for each person in line, that would be a line 17,803 miles long, or 6 times across the US from coast to coast.

 

47,000,000 X 2 / 5,280 feet/mile = 17,803 miles long

 

THAT is why there are debit cards and the food stamp program. The government wants to keep the depression as invisible as possible, as long as possible. Fake unemployment numbers (like today's report), fake Stock Market (DOW just went over 14,000), fake GDP (-0.1% last quarter but a lot worse if they calculated real inflation), etc. Reality would spark a revolution and they know it.

Fri, 02/01/2013 - 13:33 | 3206678 TheMerryPrankster
TheMerryPrankster's picture

Food stamps - electronic soup lines for the virtual world.

There's an app for that. "Angry Turds", monkeys throw feces at out of work celebrities and get additional bonus Dollarz on their food stamp account.

Download Angry Turdz for your Obamaphone today. A small monthly charge may apply. Brought to you by J.P Morgan your authorized food stamp supplier.

Fri, 02/01/2013 - 12:35 | 3206447 Bansters-in-my-...
Bansters-in-my- feces's picture

And the DOW rallys 180 points...?

Ps fuck you sack of shit million dollar bonus.
Pss....I would pay to spend one minute alone with you.

Fri, 02/01/2013 - 12:39 | 3206464 mightycluck
Fri, 02/01/2013 - 14:58 | 3206922 wagthetails
wagthetails's picture

i wish this older generation would start smoking again.

Fri, 02/01/2013 - 15:49 | 3207162 Walt D.
Walt D.'s picture

More from 1984 - a further inside into why all the lies.

"Now I will tell you the answer to my question. It is this. The Party seeks power entirely for its own sake. We are not interested in the good of others; we are interested solely in power, pure power. What pure power means you will understand presently. We are different from the oligarchies of the past in that we know what we are doing. All the others, even those who resembled ourselves, were cowards and hypocrites. The German Nazis and the Russian Communists came very close to us in their methods, but they never had the courage to recognize their own motives. They pretended, perhaps they even believed, that they had seized power unwillingly and for a limited time, and that just around the corner there lay a paradise where human beings would be free and equal. We are not like that. We know what no one ever seizes power with the intention of relinquishing it. Power is not a means; it is an end. One does not establish a dictatorship in order to safeguard a revolution; one makes the revolution in order to establish the dictatorship. The object of persecution is persecution. The object of torture is torture. The object of power is power. Now you begin to understand me."

And the object of bogus statistics is bogus statistics.

Fri, 02/01/2013 - 19:18 | 3207791 loregnum
loregnum's picture

This chart is wrong if it is going by the bls table. The bls table shows an increase in 55+ jobs not the negative the writer came up with. The other age bracket figures are correct which makes one wonder HTF the bls data shows an icnrease in jobs whem the bracket figures show a loss.

 

I guess the total figure is there for the sheeple who are too lazy to look at the table and see the numbers don't add up. Regardless, the situation is not good for anyone in the meaty working age.

 

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