This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.

It's Deja Vu, All Over Again: This Time Is... Completely The Same

Tyler Durden's picture




 

It was the deep of winter... CNBC was talking about "animal spirits", had just touted "the best January in 14 years", was quoting Raymond James' Jeff Saut as saying that "The market "is amazingly resilient, and is no longer overbought" and desperately doing everything it could to get retail back into stocks, and was succeeding: retail inflows into stocks were surging and seemed unstoppable... The Chicago PMI had just printed at its highest level in decades... the VIX was dropping fast... Stocks were soaring... Bonds were sliding... NYSE margin debt had just risen to the highest level since 2008... A few brief months earlier the Fed had unleashed a new, massive round of unsterilized bond buying...  Bank of America was blaring about the "great rotation" for stocks, and yes - just shortly prior "global currency warfare" had broken out. Name the year?

If you said 2013, you would be right. And wrong.

Because the right answer is... 2011.

That's right: with institutional and trader memories so short, everyone has (again) forgotten that it truly is deja vu, all over again.

To wit:

Stock performance in the winter of 2011 and the winter of 2013:

Bond performance in the winter of 2011 and the winter of 2013:

NYSE margin debt - euphoria and leverage upon leverage was contagious... in January 2011 and January 2013:

Fund Flows into equities were unstoppable. Yes - that was 7 consecutive weeks of major equity inflows into stocks... back in January 2011.

CNBC: Monday 31, 2011:

Stocks End Up; Dow's Best January in 14 Years

 

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 68.23 points, or 0.6 percent, to close at about 11891.93, after falling 1.4 percent on Friday. For the month, the Dow gained 314.42 points or 2.72 percent, its best January performance since 1997 and its first January gain in four years.

 

The market "is amazingly resilient," Jeffrey Saut, chief market strategist at Raymond James, told CNBC.com. "After what happened on Friday you would have expected a second shoe to fall."

 

But, Saut said, the markets had been due for a correction for sometime, and had been indicating one was on the way. After the sell-off, however, the market is no longer "overbought," he said.

 

Saut remains bullish and one of his favored sectors are banks, which he had not bought for 10 years until last November. Since then, banks, as measured by the Financial Select SPDR Fund , have risen more than the S&P 500 on a relative basis.

 

"I think that is extraordinarily positive for the equity markets and the economy," he said.

The great rotation was rotating... and rotating... and rotating:

Currency war had just broken out... in late 2010

"An “international currency war” has broken out, according to Guido Mantega, Brazil’s finance minister, as governments around the globe compete to lower their exchange rates to boost competitiveness." Welcome to the new frontline. It is being played out at every 500x levered FX trade station. No prisoners are taken as those wounded are immediately shot. And the incursions have now entered stocks and bonds. Trading any assets is now retaliation against a central bank somewhere (most typically at Liberty 33 or at the Marriner Eccles building) which is engaged in open warfare against the world's middle class. And yes, the Brazil Central Bank earlier announced that it was heading unto the breach, buying yet more dollars for 1.7094 reais at auction, and has bought as much as $1 billion USD each day for the past two weeks, putting the Japanese intervention from two weeks ago to shame.

The economy was "recovering" and yet the Fed just announced it would inject $75 billion into the market each month:

To promote a stronger pace of economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at levels consistent with its mandate, the Committee decided today to expand its holdings of securities. The Committee will maintain its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its securities holdings. In addition, the Committee intends to purchase a further $600 billion of longer-term Treasury securities by the end of the second quarter of 2011, a pace of about $75 billion per month. The Committee will regularly review the pace of its securities purchases and the overall size of the asset-purchase program in light of incoming information and will adjust the program as needed to best foster maximum employment and price stability.

So why is 2013 nothing but a verbatim, carbon copy of 2011?

Simple: between the Fed, the propaganda of "great rotations" and "massive" inflows into stocks, despite the endless decoupling of fundamentals with the market, all that the status quo was desperate to accomplish was to push the responsibility of keeping the market afloat away from the Fed and on the shoulders of retail investors.

What the Fed did not realize then, and does not realize now, is that the US consumer no longer has the disposable cash to push stocks any higher because while to some 1% of the economy the wealth is indeed tied to stocks, for the balance unless the economy, the jobs, the wages and all those other conventional things that determine inbound cash pick up as well, which they did not in 2011 and they certainly have not in 2013, the US consumer simply will not be able to pick up where the Fed leave off.

Which is why the Fed failed in 2011. It will fail again this time. But yes, the market is higher now than it was in 2011, why? Here's why.

Finally, how did the market close in 2011? Flat.

 

- advertisements -

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
Fri, 02/01/2013 - 17:45 | 3207594 King_of_simpletons
King_of_simpletons's picture

Bubble time. The idiots in the media and the same tired anal-ysts are using the cliches of past bubbles.

Can't wait for the fun and sexy time when it bursts.

Fri, 02/01/2013 - 17:47 | 3207613 Say What Again
Say What Again's picture

Based on the first chart, it looks like I'll have to wait until Valentines Day for the fun to begin (in more ways than one).

Fri, 02/01/2013 - 18:19 | 3207682 Ham-bone
Ham-bone's picture

This is 2013...this is QE4EVER...no end in sight like there was in '11...this time we go all the way baby (sociopaths don't do anything halfway...)

Fri, 02/01/2013 - 20:28 | 3207892 CH1
CH1's picture

I hold to what I learned a long time ago: If it makes no sense, stay the hell away from it.

Fri, 02/01/2013 - 21:03 | 3207984 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

A nickle ain't worth a dime anymore...

Fri, 02/01/2013 - 21:37 | 3208116 CPL
CPL's picture

A dime ain't far behind.

Fri, 02/01/2013 - 22:38 | 3208331 BidnessMan
BidnessMan's picture

My 1964 dimes are doin' just fine

Sat, 02/02/2013 - 01:36 | 3208659 JeffB
JeffB's picture

64 Kennedy Half Dollars are worth $32.00

Sat, 02/02/2013 - 04:18 | 3208763 douglas
douglas's picture

Notice how curuious it is that even prior to the coming economic colapse, just by holding this 1964 Kennedy half dollar - the investment rule of doubling your money every seven years is maintained: 1964=.50, 1971=1.00, 1978=2.00, 1985=2.00, 1992=4.00, 1999=8.00, 2006=16.00, 2013=$32.00

 

Sat, 02/02/2013 - 05:05 | 3208783 jmk
jmk's picture

Mistake at 1985--that should be a $4--then 2013 is $64 not $32!

Sat, 02/02/2013 - 09:59 | 3208927 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

Well I guess that means Blythe is gonna be rather busy this year...

Sat, 02/02/2013 - 03:37 | 3208739 dunce
dunce's picture

All sociopaths are not socialists , but all socialists are sociopaths.

Sat, 02/02/2013 - 19:22 | 3209783 BubbleBobble
BubbleBobble's picture

> Based on the first chart, it looks like I'll have to wait until

> Valentines Day for the fun to begin (in more ways than one).

 

Interestingly enough, February 15th is the first break in the Fed's POMO schedule this month...

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-01-31/shorting-market-these-pomo-days...

 

 

Fri, 02/01/2013 - 18:40 | 3207718 bobthehorse
bobthehorse's picture

The bubble already popped.

Now we're in an enless Japanese-style recession.

Wash.  Rinse. Repeat

The cycle never end.

http://angrysinner.blogspot.kr/2013/02/yesterday-i-used-my-phillips-air-fryer.html

Fri, 02/01/2013 - 18:53 | 3207740 Ham-bone
Ham-bone's picture

not arguing bout the recession or similar situations but Japan and US reactions are different...

- Japanese Nikei topped in '89 @40k and never even got close to that height again...each attempt lower til now they are excited by 11k.

- Within 5yrs US is "achieving" new highs...maybe we'll even get the Nas back to it's peak within 2013...Fed is all in to print whatever it takes to maintain nominal fictions

There is such massive deflationary forces in labor, housing that Fed has unbelievable leeway to continue printing enriching those closest while impoverishing all the little people (formerly known as middle class).

Fri, 02/01/2013 - 18:52 | 3207760 EmmittFitzhume
EmmittFitzhume's picture

Japan actually makes products of value.  We don't

Fri, 02/01/2013 - 19:21 | 3207796 Ham-bone
Ham-bone's picture

tanks?  sidewinder missiles?  F15's?  U saying US arming the world to kill one another isn't of value? 

Fri, 02/01/2013 - 19:32 | 3207816 cossack55
cossack55's picture

Too bad the US let the drone market escape to every other country on the planet.  Oh well, autonomous kill decision is right around the corner.

Fri, 02/01/2013 - 19:41 | 3207829 EmmittFitzhume
EmmittFitzhume's picture

We make valuable products...for a few buyers

Sat, 02/02/2013 - 13:34 | 3209177 yogibear
yogibear's picture

So when does the DHS start carrying the XM25's to use against any disorderly crowds when the SHF?

Plenty of orders.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0d-n7i7hsKA

Fri, 02/01/2013 - 23:53 | 3208502 RopeADope
RopeADope's picture

The U.S. has a huge export industry in dollars. Nearly 1/3 of our country works very hard making dollars for the rest of the world so our leaders would beg to differ about this country not producing anything.

Fri, 02/01/2013 - 19:23 | 3207795 EmmittFitzhume
EmmittFitzhume's picture

Why not buy and hold short positions?  If the false market continues to go up due to CTRL-P then all money will be worthless so no loss there.  If market tanks and Fed capitulates, deflations ensues. Short positions explode to the moon.  USD continues to be the safe haven and gold goes down in the interim. Then wait a little bit and BUY PMs and other assets not nailed down!

Fri, 02/01/2013 - 22:36 | 3208323 BidnessMan
BidnessMan's picture

Great strategy until you get Corzined....

Fri, 02/01/2013 - 17:44 | 3207599 ParkAveFlasher
Fri, 02/01/2013 - 17:49 | 3207622 unwashedmass
unwashedmass's picture

so do you suppose that these two guys have the same agreement that Nadler had? You know, never ever mention gold as a valid investment, and bash at every opportunity> 

Fri, 02/01/2013 - 18:05 | 3207664 ParkAveFlasher
ParkAveFlasher's picture

Wyckoff is a TA, he just draws lines.

Fri, 02/01/2013 - 17:58 | 3207650 HyperinflatmyNutts
HyperinflatmyNutts's picture

About time they get rid of that schill....  Gold and Silver Bitchez...

Fri, 02/01/2013 - 18:43 | 3207731 Au_Ag_CuPbCu
Au_Ag_CuPbCu's picture

Fuck you Nadless.  Fixed it for ya.

Fri, 02/01/2013 - 19:55 | 3207848 chubbyjjfong
chubbyjjfong's picture

Nadler, Nadler

Whos your Dadler,

Are you Fun, or are you Sadler?

Wackoff Hug Jon?  

Didya? Hadya?

Time to choke on that T-bone Straddler.

Fri, 02/01/2013 - 20:15 | 3207878 Randall Cabot
Randall Cabot's picture

I gave you a greenie for effort

Fri, 02/01/2013 - 17:48 | 3207609 ToNYC
ToNYC's picture

Seems like just yesterday..as do the Middle Ages as I recall the bus ride in here.

Fri, 02/01/2013 - 17:49 | 3207615 stateside
stateside's picture

How appropriate on the eve of Groundhog Day to do a "do-over"

stateside

Fri, 02/01/2013 - 18:07 | 3207667 Groundhog Day
Groundhog Day's picture

We are all living the same year over and over again.  Yesterday is today and tomorrow will also be today.....Just look at the POMO activity at the Fed.

Fri, 02/01/2013 - 18:42 | 3207723 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

Ned?... Ned the Head?...

Fri, 02/01/2013 - 17:50 | 3207616 Cdad
Cdad's picture

Late.  Stage. Crony. Capitalism.

Fri, 02/01/2013 - 17:53 | 3207630 Motorhead
Motorhead's picture

L.S.C.C.  I like it!

Fri, 02/01/2013 - 18:43 | 3207730 Water Is Wet
Water Is Wet's picture

But what if it isn't 'Late Stage'.  What if it is 'Just Past The Beginning Stage'?

Fri, 02/01/2013 - 17:50 | 3207617 Motorhead
Motorhead's picture

Deja vu, bitchez!

Fri, 02/01/2013 - 17:49 | 3207618 BeaverFever
BeaverFever's picture

What year? Sneaky question involves the Yankees and baseball. Does anyone know that we Canucks are playing hockey right now?
P.S. we invented basketball but forgot to invent tattoos.

Fri, 02/01/2013 - 17:52 | 3207626 Motorhead
Motorhead's picture

After the strike/lock-out/whatever, I'm not sure people DO know that the Canucks are playing hockey right now.

BTW, I think the Chinese invented tatoos.  Or was it spaghetti?

Fri, 02/01/2013 - 17:51 | 3207620 Motorhead
Motorhead's picture

Oops, almost forgot:  Charts, bitchez!

Fri, 02/01/2013 - 17:49 | 3207623 Cursive
Cursive's picture

Wait, you mean just because stocks are up in January doesn't mean they will be up the rest of the year?  But I've been told that is a stone cold lock, so no way it doesn't happen.

Fri, 02/01/2013 - 17:51 | 3207625 max2205
max2205's picture

Its double dejavu 2001 like 2008 like 2013...  fuck

Fri, 02/01/2013 - 17:52 | 3207627 blu
blu's picture

So next year at this time is Dow 15,000?

Will mean about as much as 14,000 means today; exactly nothing.

Fri, 02/01/2013 - 17:53 | 3207631 Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

"Shares Crash!.......Hopes are dashed!......People forget!

Forget their hiding....

Its just an Eminence Front!

Eminence Front!

It's a Put on!"

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b5kkcOvPW6Y

Fri, 02/01/2013 - 17:54 | 3207635 Motorhead
Motorhead's picture

"It's bull shit, bull shit"

Fri, 02/01/2013 - 18:02 | 3207662 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

Nice Who reference.  I've been playing that one a few times since they chose it as the theme song for "The Americans" series.

In other news.....

BOYS AND GIRLS. CHILDREN OF ALL AGES!  IF YOU BELIEVE THE REAL INFLATION RATE IS ACTUALLY CLOSER TO 6%, AS I DO (if not higher) THAT MEANS THE DOW ENDS THE YEAR AT 14,840 (14,000 * 1.06) JUST FROM INFLATION.

WEE HAW!

Feeling a little light-headed yet?

 

Fri, 02/01/2013 - 17:52 | 3207632 rsnoble
rsnoble's picture

Now look what our gods have planned for us in the US:

 

http://www.prisonplanet.com/mccain-and-schumer-move-to-force-americans-t...

Fri, 02/01/2013 - 17:52 | 3207638 LongSoupLine
LongSoupLine's picture

Time to drink myself into a fucking ranting stupor again.  My buds love it.

 

Fuck off Bernanke, I will toast to your fucking painful death tonight.

Fri, 02/01/2013 - 18:16 | 3207680 Archetype
Archetype's picture

I would rather pay some of the money I still have left to hear you keep on every single day until it all ends than to put it in this fucking joke of a market. Remember you are not alone brother!

Fri, 02/01/2013 - 17:55 | 3207642 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Everytime old big butt Bartiromo gets giddy you know it's time to run for the exits.

Fri, 02/01/2013 - 17:57 | 3207647 Motorhead
Motorhead's picture

I still think she fancies tequila shooters.

Fri, 02/01/2013 - 18:05 | 3207663 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Todd Thompson might know the answer.

Fri, 02/01/2013 - 18:38 | 3207716 knukles
knukles's picture

Man, she gets drunk enuf, imagine the spit balls from cocktail napkins you cound flick at her clevage.
New winter sport.

Fri, 02/01/2013 - 20:29 | 3207894 kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

Double points if one sticks in her mustache.

Fri, 02/01/2013 - 17:57 | 3207644 IridiumRebel
IridiumRebel's picture

<---Dow moving to 26,000

<---Dow moving to 8,500

Fri, 02/01/2013 - 17:59 | 3207658 HyperinflatmyNutts
HyperinflatmyNutts's picture

Dow to gold.. 1 to 1..  26000  

Fri, 02/01/2013 - 22:31 | 3208307 BidnessMan
BidnessMan's picture

And Gold to Silver 8:1

Fri, 02/01/2013 - 18:09 | 3207669 Ham-bone
Ham-bone's picture

Dow to 26,000 and then 8,500...Ben can print for a long time due to

1- low wage inflation (in the US, EU, Japan due to mega slack coupled w/ automation, technology, outsourcing, robotization, etc.)

2- low inflation in housing...see slack in housing and see #1 for low wage growth, uenemployment, plus rates will not get better and probably worse

3- only inflation will be stagflation of education, insurance, food, gas, and other general stuff that only bothers the little people...

so Ben will keep on printing $4billion a day til I don't know what happens

Fri, 02/01/2013 - 17:55 | 3207645 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

it's different this time

a new paradigm

trust me

would i lie?

permanently high plateau

Fri, 02/01/2013 - 18:11 | 3207675 Ham-bone
Ham-bone's picture

Recessions are a thing of the past thanks to our central planners (unfortunately growth is also a thing of the past thanks to our central planners)...ZOMBIE ECONOPOCALYPSE

Fri, 02/01/2013 - 17:55 | 3207646 RobinHood73
RobinHood73's picture

In 2002 the market was partially real/partially engineered.Today it is 100% engineered bullshit and is a reflection of nothing relevant anymore.

To quote STAR WARS: "Democracy dies to thunderous applause"

I fail to see how our situation today is any different...This rally is completely engineered by primary dealers.  Prices are a reflection of nothing.The stock market is propped higher so dealers can enjoy mark to market gains on a portfolio that is funded by the Federal Reserve for free and they (the banks) have defacto control over the flow of the liquidity spigot. Feel free to participate but be aware that those nce bankers arent gonna tell you when they decide to turn the spigot.Moreover, they are very happy to diffuse risk to you that they acquired at S&P 666 and have been so hard pressed to sell.  What a farce. They have won complete control over the instrument formerly known as the market- all with public endorsement andunder the illusion of  helping the REAL economy"

 

Fri, 02/01/2013 - 17:56 | 3207648 max2205
max2205's picture

When was apple down 30% last?  All the crap in IWM leading this market?

Fri, 02/01/2013 - 20:50 | 3207937 Snoopy the Economist
Snoopy the Economist's picture

Facebook is replacing apple as the market darling

Fri, 02/01/2013 - 17:59 | 3207659 fuu
fuu's picture

Rockin out Tyler!

Fri, 02/01/2013 - 18:10 | 3207672 katchum
katchum's picture

If this is 2011 all over again, gold will explode.

Fri, 02/01/2013 - 18:21 | 3207686 RationalPrepper
RationalPrepper's picture

Calendar year 2011, gold finished up 10%, silver down 10% (as measured by GLD and SLV)

Fri, 02/01/2013 - 18:23 | 3207688 Volaille de Bresse
Volaille de Bresse's picture

We live in an eternal present. The past has been erased...

Fri, 02/01/2013 - 18:38 | 3207719 knukles
knukles's picture

And tomorrow's history is manufactured.

Welcome to the Matrix

Fri, 02/01/2013 - 18:25 | 3207691 Miles Kendig
Miles Kendig's picture

Deja .. Deja .. Deja .. Deja Vu

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=izaX4fWtovo

Not rotate, but slip out the back, Jack

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=298nld4Yfds

.. while taking another bite outta that AAPL for the road

Fri, 02/01/2013 - 18:27 | 3207694 WTF2
WTF2's picture

Don't fight the tape it is going much higher!  If you over think you will loose money, just enjoy the positive feedback loop and the fact that the pros are all wrong again.

I listen to that dip shit Bogle today insult the public saying they always buy tops and then ask the public to send him/vangaurd their money.  The market will go down just not when you think.  Bogle wants you to be his annuity. what a jackass.

Fri, 02/01/2013 - 18:27 | 3207695 Praetorian Guard
Praetorian Guard's picture

Kind of like the raspy throated FUCK NUT on this video saying ALL IS FUCKING WELL AND BUY THE FUCKING DIP, MUDDER FUCKER....

Do these people even hear themselves? Everything is rosey, Japan has tons of money, business has cash, WTF??? Seriously, WTF!!!!!!

http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000143988

Fri, 02/01/2013 - 18:27 | 3207697 random shots
random shots's picture

For months the Zero Hedge Community, and the Tylers, said that the reatil investor was the smart money selling into rally.  All I see is investors selling low and buying high. 

Sat, 02/02/2013 - 00:20 | 3208552 willwork4food
willwork4food's picture

Selling and buying PMs.

If you buy again you're an idiot. Think 1928. Sure you'll get a little extra kick but is it worth the risk?

Fri, 02/01/2013 - 18:29 | 3207700 booboo
booboo's picture

"When you come to a fork in the road, take it"

" It ain't over 'til it's over "

"Never answer an anonymous letter"

" I usually take a two hour nap from one to four"

" It's deja vu all over again"

" When you come to a fork in the road....Take it "

" I didn't really say everything I said "

Yogi on the 1969 NY Mets....." overwhelming underdogs "

When asked what time is was......" you mean now?"

" I want to thank you for making this day necessary"
......... Yogi Berra day in St Louis 1947

On why NY lost the 1960 series to Pittsburgh " We made too many wrong mistakes"

" You can observe a lot by watching "

" The future ain't what it used to be "

" It gets late early out here"

" If the world were perfect, it wouldn't be "

" If the people don't want to come out to the ballpark, nobody's going to stop them "

 

Fri, 02/01/2013 - 23:34 | 3207884 Randall Cabot
Randall Cabot's picture

You forgot one:

Nobody posts on Zero Hedge anymore, there's too many posts..

Sat, 02/02/2013 - 13:24 | 3209163 Bam_Man
Bam_Man's picture

My personal favorite:

"It's hard to make predictions. Especially about the future."

Fri, 02/01/2013 - 18:34 | 3207702 IridiumRebel
IridiumRebel's picture

 

 

 

http://www.cnbc.com/id/100420112

 

"The next American wealth boom has officially begun.

It may not feel like it for many Americans. But with the Dow breaching 14,000, shareholders and investors have recovered the more than $8 trillion in wealth lost during the recession and attained levels of paper wealth they haven't seen since the Roaring Oughts.

The stock market has gone from wealth destroyer to the nation's largest manufacturer of new millionaires and billionaires. The market moves are creating a new virtuous cycle of confidence for the wealthy. A new survey from Spectrem Group shows that millionaire confidence in the economy hit the highest level in two years, led by their bullishness on the economy and corporate earnings.

The big question now is what the next Gilded Age will look like, who will benefit and how long the market-fueled prosperity will last.

(Read moreLeading indicator: In the Hamptons, 'the Deals Are Gone')

The population of millionaires in America is now at or above its 2007 high. According to Spectrem Group, the wealth research firm, there are about 9 million American households with investible assets of $1 million or more."

Long Plebes

Fri, 02/01/2013 - 18:49 | 3207741 knukles
knukles's picture

See therein lies the myopia.
The rally's made a whole buncha million and billionaire.
Whoopee shits!

A few more people made it into the 1%

Well la dee fucking dah.

Most people after 2007/8 don't have any fucking stocks left to go up.
Most people are worried about where then next bills are gonna be paid from, let alone listening to the stock voices, tax strategies or pulling forward cap gains and dividends.
Most people wish they (the talking heads) would all just disappear.

Y'all seen that newish quarterly WSJ magazine?  It is so ostentatious, it's insulting.
Talk about wishing people bon voyage to their 7th circle of hell....

Fri, 02/01/2013 - 19:14 | 3207787 IridiumRebel
IridiumRebel's picture

You wouldn't have a ten to spot me so i can get a gallon of milk and some eggs? In 2007 a fiver would have done the trick....now I need a ten.

Sat, 02/02/2013 - 00:22 | 3208556 willwork4food
willwork4food's picture

Naw, that just has to be a coincidence.

Sat, 02/02/2013 - 13:27 | 3209166 Bam_Man
Bam_Man's picture

Don't worry, it's transitory.

Fri, 02/01/2013 - 18:35 | 3207709 the grateful un...
the grateful unemployed's picture

in 2011 retailers weren't considering a credit card user surcharge.

Fri, 02/01/2013 - 18:38 | 3207715 GreatUncle
GreatUncle's picture

Why flat? Consider it a function of a limited money supply. An investor only has x amount to invest in any one period so they may borrow for a time and it all looks good then they cash in grab what return they can and exit.

That is not flat you say? It is if for the sum of all those that won is cancelled out by those that lost.

Flat is a limited money supply ebbing and flowing from one thing to another but never higher. If it does go higher for a time is then borrowed money that has to be taken out shortly.

Fri, 02/01/2013 - 18:44 | 3207729 Cheshire
Cheshire's picture

Bullish!

Fri, 02/01/2013 - 18:53 | 3207752 ekm
ekm's picture

Zerohedge has this so wrong, utterly wrong.

 

There's absolutely no freaking way this is going to be a 2011 repeat. We are way beyond that point. We are even way beyond 2008.

 

This looks to me like 1987. Collapse without news. Total void. Abyss out of nothing.

 

I've got the popcorn ready, waiting for the movie to begin.

Fri, 02/01/2013 - 19:59 | 3207859 ekm
ekm's picture

Is anybody aware that any single real and fake security has gone to the moon? That means that there is only one buyer: The governments of the world.

 

When they remove the finger from the button, it's 1987. Abyss out of nothing.

Fri, 02/01/2013 - 20:12 | 3207876 lakecity55
lakecity55's picture

All I have left are some silver miners.

I'll ride those long.

The rest is gone, I put it into hard assets, but they were stolen, or fell off the truck.

Fri, 02/01/2013 - 21:24 | 3208072 hairball48
hairball48's picture

Was the truck near NW Montana? :)

Fri, 02/01/2013 - 23:31 | 3208460 Vooter
Vooter's picture

"This looks to me like 1987."

1987? Life went on as usual for the vast majority of people after the "collapse" of 1987. That wasn't a collapse--it was a hiccup. Call me when people are dying, infrastructure and communications are destroyed, and food and water are hard to find. We need a COLLAPSE, not an inconvenience...

Sat, 02/02/2013 - 11:16 | 3208998 ekm
ekm's picture

Totally agree.
Destruction of the financial system is no collapse, it is just the collapse of theft.

Life will still go on.

Fri, 02/01/2013 - 19:00 | 3207768 Meatballs
Meatballs's picture

Let me go out on a limb here. DOW 14100 and < 6000 in 30-45 days.

Fri, 02/01/2013 - 19:09 | 3207781 razorthin
razorthin's picture

If you are not cashing out of this market, you are a fucking moron and deserve what's coming to you.

Fri, 02/01/2013 - 19:09 | 3207783 miker
miker's picture

There is so much debt out there and so little real savings that without much downward push, the whole thing will heap in a giagantic deflationary pile.  Bernanke knows this.  That is why they are desparte to inflate; really at any cost since the alternative is a know collapse/reset.  The stock market is pretty much controlled by the banks and Fed in as much as they both desire it to go higher to build a wealth effect.  I suppose it's possible that the economy could benefit around the edges (more nice houses built, a few more boats, expensive cars, etc.) but I don't think even millionaires are so stupid as to go out and blow their newfound stock market money on questionable investments (e.g., McDonalds franchise).  Seems likely they will also sit on their gains and diversify into gold, land,s etc. So Bernanke may not get the big wealth effect he is hoping for in spite of their success in running the market up. 

I for one refuse to play their little game.  I have missed out on some big gains but oh well.  And to those who are playing with the belief they will get out when things start turning down......well I think they need to rethink that.  We're in uncharted territority.  With the right "event", the market could trip circuit breaker after circuit breaker on the way down; thus preventing the average guy from getting out early.  It's just not worth the risk.  Neither are bonds.

Holding cash, rental property and gold.  My cash is sucking wind and losing money, but better than risking losing all.

Fri, 02/01/2013 - 19:16 | 3207790 EmmittFitzhume
EmmittFitzhume's picture

Buy and hold short positions.

Fri, 02/01/2013 - 22:26 | 3208294 BidnessMan
BidnessMan's picture

Why in the world would you think some brokerage firm would actually pay off a winning short to a Muppet? Such a naive trusting fool.

Fri, 02/01/2013 - 23:24 | 3208440 Vooter
Vooter's picture

Agree 100%...

Fri, 02/01/2013 - 19:20 | 3207792 alfred b.
alfred b.'s picture

 

      Same script, same actors...only this time they're on morphine!

 

Fri, 02/01/2013 - 19:39 | 3207802 Palladin
Palladin's picture

How's this for a little Deja Vu....Featuring a much younger Clarabelle, and that ever so famous stock picker Garret Von Wagoner. 

Interesting to compare then and now. 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jvVQsMvAIIY

 

Fri, 02/01/2013 - 19:30 | 3207809 news printer
news printer's picture
Egypt and Syria are falling apart

Israeli Air Force Commander Maj. Gen. Amir Eshel warned Tuesday, Jan. 29, that Syria is falling apart and no one knows what the next day may bring: “War may not break out tomorrow,”

Fri, 02/01/2013 - 19:34 | 3207821 Dre4dwolf
Dre4dwolf's picture

Can a bubble burst with unlimited monopoly money?

Whats going to break first?

Hyperinflation?

Bonds Bubble Burst?

Run-Away Gold?

Equities Self Destructing?

 

I am thinking whatever goes, its going to be sudden destruction.

Fri, 02/01/2013 - 20:43 | 3207918 Aussiekiwi
Aussiekiwi's picture

It is QE forever, if it stops the Stock market falls over and that has become the only measure of success in the good old USA, I thought the US was completely doomed, but it has a silver lining in that it will soon have access to cheap energy, a get out of jail free card, a chance to do something constructive to generate real growth, don't screw it up fatties.

Fri, 02/01/2013 - 19:43 | 3207830 Meatballs
Meatballs's picture

If you think CNBS is bad, Mrs. Meatballs insists on watching Brian Williams at 6:30. The cheerleading was so disgusting I had to leave the room before I puked on my shoes.

Fri, 02/01/2013 - 20:48 | 3207933 IridiumRebel
IridiumRebel's picture

Well Mrs IridiumRebel likes the fucking Kardashians. Good News is that she trust my investment strategy. 

Fri, 02/01/2013 - 21:06 | 3207992 Meatballs
Meatballs's picture

Makes me feel fortunate :D

Fri, 02/01/2013 - 20:01 | 3207860 The Gooch
The Gooch's picture

The Ponzi is dead!

Long live the Ponzi!

#War

 

Fri, 02/01/2013 - 20:03 | 3207864 Rathmullan
Rathmullan's picture

Meanwhile, the printing continues at unprecedented rates, debt ceilings are raised and a year from now "quad b" packs up his shoe box, drops his keys and his security pass on his desk and goes off to bermuda to write a book forwarded by "the maestro", and the coke head pastrami munchers will decide to buy or sell this market come Monday based on the outcome of the superbowl (unless that means selling it down). 

Fri, 02/01/2013 - 20:16 | 3207879 lakecity55
lakecity55's picture

"My cunning plan is working!"

"Death to Amerika!"

--Bath House Barry

Fri, 02/01/2013 - 20:24 | 3207891 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

Larry Kudlow is kind of on one again tonight, talking about the ramp in stocks and how great "free markets" are and that "private American companies are leading the recovery."

Larry, Larry, Larry.

What free markets?

Those "American corporations" suck off the teat of the government continually at the expense of citizens.

Funny part was Larry joked that either Bernanke was a genius or he was blowing the biggest financial bubble in history; and that it was good for his indexes and hopefully it would burst after he retired and cashed out.

So Larry, what you were really saying is that you know this is a FED bubble that won't last, but it's o.k. if your generation can get out in time?  That's what it sounded like to me.

And what are those current and future retirees going to do with their money?  Treasuries at 1%-2% while inflation is 4%-10%?

OOPS.

Fri, 02/01/2013 - 20:45 | 3207919 Rathmullan
Rathmullan's picture

Fortunately, larry's either too stupid or too cheap or both  to invest a couple of million in a bunker. Not even the best and brightest goldman alumni can stretch this scam beyond larry's last day.

Fri, 02/01/2013 - 20:44 | 3207924 IridiumRebel
IridiumRebel's picture

I am buying land.....in other countries.

Sat, 02/02/2013 - 02:09 | 3208702 Freddie
Freddie's picture

Amazing how you people keep watching TV and enabling this evil.  Your TV viewership and Hollywood support empower the elites and Obam-MAO.  Keep it up.  Geez.

Kudlow is an stupid as Krugman is now.  These people laugh at the idiots who watch them and support them with their viewership.

Fri, 02/01/2013 - 20:30 | 3207895 kill switch
kill switch's picture

All over again Yogi

Fucking broads,,,

Chapter Two of How to Marry a Third-World Woman and Live Happily Ever After, Somewhre Else

January 29, 2013

When I posted the first chapter of the book of this title that I never finished writiing, response was heavy with requests for further chapters. OK, here are one.

Bar girls are a mistake that countless guys make when they first leave the United States. Bar girls are a mistake in two ways. First, lots of gringos think that the girls are typical of the women of the country. Second, they get tangled up with a hooker and perhaps marry her. This is bad juju. Not a good idea at all.

Let’s use Thailand as an example. Everyone has heard of the sex trade there. Most Americans seem to think that Thailand is a nation of prostitutes, and that seven out of every three have AIDS. This isn’t true. The sex trade exists, but the overwhelming majority of women have nothing to do with it. The problem is that very few outlanders get beyond the whorehouses, so they think there is nothing else to Thailand.

The fact is that the Thais are culturally conservative, have fairly high standards of sexual morality, and regard foreigners (farangs) as depraved barbarians who want only sex. This typically is accurate. But the women you first will meet will be hookers. Let’s go through the drill.

You land in Bangkok and check into your hotel. Of course that evening you head for one of the farang bar districts because, well, it’s easy, and although in principle you are looking for a wife, in practice a little practice never hurts. I mean we are, after all, guys. And Bangkok at night is a sexual candy store.

There are three girly districts of note, Patpong Road, Soi Cowboy, and Nana Plaza. Patpong is perhaps the best known and the nicest. (Actually there are Patpong I and Patpong II, streets right next to and parallel with each other.) The taxi drops you off. What do you see?

A narrowish street, garishly lit, jammed with at least three-quarters of the entire population of Asia, milling and shoving and squirming through densely packed rows of stands selling clothes, trinkets, souvenirs, pirated music, antisocial tee-shirts, everything.  Keep your hand on your wallet. (I wear a photo vest with inside zippered pockets.)

The street is lined with bars, many of them thumping with godawful disco music too loud to allow conversation. Go into a couple just to see what they are. There will probably be a long stand in the thumping murk raised a couple of feet above the floor. From this a dozen brass poles will rise to the ceiling. Dangling somewhere will probably be one of those beachballs covered with fragments of mirror to reflect the lights, which will be red and green and purple. Some of these places look to have been designed by Dante, but this has never been established.

On the stand, one per pole, will be Thai girls in bikinis or hot pants or whatever. They will be bumping and grinding in boredom. Depending on your age, recent deprivation, ethanol intake, experience in Asia, and testosterone levels, you may find this titillating, tiresome, or sad.

A girl will very quickly come to your table and offer you, well, herself. She will speak little if any English and be a peasant girl from up-country. She will have the appeal of the young, willing, and female. Do as you choose. She has nothing to do with our goal of finding a permanent squeeze, so we will drop her at this point.

Now go to one of the non-disco bars. The last time I did such things a good example was the Takara, on Patpong I, upstairs by way of an elevator. It may still exist. Here, given your quest, you could get into trouble. The Takara, technically a massage parlor, is small, quiet, pleasant, with a bar and a couple of tables. The barmaid, overage at thirty-two or so, speaks English well. She is pretty and seems nice. She is in fact nice.

At the back of the room is a plate-glass window. Behind it is a series of platforms, one above the other, like very wide steps. On these sit a dozen lovely Thai girls in what look like gauzy evening gowns. Each has a tag pinned on her with a number. You can drink a beer or two at the bar, chaff with the barmaid, and then, if so inspired, ask for Seven. The barmaid will inform Seven that she is wanted, and Seven will then come sit by you at the bar.

Here is where, if you have not encountered third-world bar girls before, especially Asians, you need to be very careful. Seven will be sweet, and sleek, and charming. She will not have any of the iron-clawed vulture in her that one encounters with many American hookers. She will smile and seem to mean it and she will be…that word again…feminine, and she will give you a neck massage and, if you buy her a second beer, a third-leg massage. She won’t be crass about it, though. Thais aren’t.

And you will think, “My god, she’s really…nice. Not what I expected. Why, I like her.”

The combination of loveliness, femininity, and sex is potent stuff. Sure, after a bit she will want you to buy her another drink, but at the Takara they aren’t pushy about it, and anyhow that is how the game is played. She has to make a living. And of course before too long she will ask if you want to go upstairs. Of course you will want to.

So you will go into a little cubicle, one of many, with a massage table and a big bathtub, and she will tell you to strip and do so herself. This will not lower your opinion of her attractiveness. She will tell you to get into the bath tub. Thais are a clean people and believe in bathing before further proceedings. She will wash you, which will not decrease your enthusiasm. Then you will find yourself lying on a long rubber mat while she massages you by pouring warm soapy water on you and sliding up and down you. That is, she serves as an animated sponge. During all of this she will laugh and chat and be a sweetheart. The Thai experience is not like a quick-and-nasty against an alley wall in Washington, DC.

Being new to all of this, your thought will be to come back the next night and buy this wonderful creature out of the bar. To do this you pay the “bar fine” to the barmaid, usually 500 baht or about twenty-five bucks. Seven is now yours for the night. You can take her out to eat, then back to your hotel. Sex will be good, if a tad mechanical around the edges. Thais are not sexually inhibited.

Here is where the trouble can start. You can easily begin to bond with her, to become enamored or, as we used to say, fall in love with her. She will not discourage this. After all, bonding is her business. Her less-agreeable side, which we all have, will not appear. You will eventually hear about her five-year-old boy that she had by a boyfriend who abandoned her, and how she was half-starving selling soup on the street but went into hooking because it paid better.

And you may begin to see yourself as a Galahad rescuing this sloe-eyed princess from the vicissitudes of life. Of course part of your spirit of charity will flow from her having really nice tits. It is easy to confuse love with horniness.

But a fair number of inexperienced guys  end up marrying a sweetie out of a bar, who turns out to be screwed up in the head, which is true of most bar girls, and makes his life hellish. You find that she isn’t as bright as you thought, has a fourth-grade education, or just wants to lie around in bed all day and watch television. For good reasons they are often ambivalent about men, and their whole lives revolve around getting men to give them things. I have known a couple of marriages to bar girls that worked, but it is very rare.

They are not evil people, or no worse than the admittedly sorry baseline for the human race. They are human beings. They have real problems and a tough life and it is reasonable to be sympathetic. But you can’t solve their problems. After the body massage, give her a big tip, buy her a last drink, and disappear over the horizon.

Fri, 02/01/2013 - 22:15 | 3208250 Blano
Blano's picture

More please.

Fri, 02/01/2013 - 22:19 | 3208264 Law97
Law97's picture

"You find that she isn’t as bright as you thought, has a fourth-grade education, or just wants to lie around in bed all day and watch television. For good reasons they are often ambivalent about men, and their whole lives revolve around getting men to give them things."

 

And how is this different from American women?

 

Regardless, excellent writing.  I'm waiting for you to write the next edition of Fodor's Thailand. 

Fri, 02/01/2013 - 23:19 | 3208430 Vooter
Vooter's picture

Anyone who has to go to Thailand--let alone a bar in Thailand--to find a wife is a fucking loser and a moron. What were you people, born in West Virginia or something? And what's the fascination with drinking and hanging out in third-world countries, anyway? First off, drinking is boring--it's for people who really can't think of anything else to do. And second, hanging out in third-world countries is boring. Like drinking, it's for people who really don't have anything better to do with their lives. It's for people who eventually join loser, asshole organizations like the CIA because they think it's just so goddamn ROMANTIC to skulk around foreign capitals looking for dumbass local chicks who couldn't hold an interesting conversation if their lives depended on it. Yeah, hey, I know--let's all go to Thailand and DRINK and FUCK and GET MASSAGES, because that's what REAL MEN do. Maybe we'll even bring a Hemingway novel with us! LOL...what a bunch of boring, standard-issue, halfwit bullshit. Get a life.

Sat, 02/02/2013 - 13:40 | 3209183 Bam_Man
Bam_Man's picture

You sound like an American woman.

Fri, 02/01/2013 - 20:45 | 3207920 NoelConfidence
NoelConfidence's picture

Everything old is new again.

Fri, 02/01/2013 - 21:02 | 3207979 dolph9
dolph9's picture

Once the value of stocks and bonds genuinely begins to go down, they will never rise, in real terms, EVER AGAIN.

And when I say ever again I'm not saying millenia here.  I'm talking about your lifetime and the lifetime of your children and perhaps even grandchildren.

In short, for all intents and purposes, stocks and bonds are dead, and will remain dead.

Fri, 02/01/2013 - 21:02 | 3207983 q99x2
q99x2's picture

In two more years they'll do it again.

Fri, 02/01/2013 - 21:15 | 3208023 legorf
legorf's picture

But there IS a big difference.

In 2011, we avoided a global recession, we won't  this time around, as monetary stimulus is plagued by decreasing marginal returns on global output.

Fri, 02/01/2013 - 21:19 | 3208045 hairball48
hairball48's picture

But, but , but this time is different!!

/sarc

Fri, 02/01/2013 - 21:38 | 3208122 hairball48
hairball48's picture

Does anyone here subscribe to the following general idea:

When the bond market bubble bursts(or your favorite trigger for when TSHF) and things begin to unwind...

Why can't we have a situation where financial assets deflate(those 1's and 0's in digital accounts vanish), but prices of "real stuff", productive real estate, commodities, PM's will be greatly inflated....wealth flowing into real, tangible assets. That said, there will be some commodity prices tempered by a fall in demand due to recession/depression.

Remember, I'm just a HS educated redneck. Don't use too many "big words".

:)

Sat, 02/02/2013 - 04:18 | 3208762 enloe creek
enloe creek's picture

I would like to know that mysef, Think dollar is going to weaken shortly after something like that happens, unless trade partners use the opportunity to really turn on the intervention and buy up the dollar to weaken their currency. I think it would be a round of devalueing eeverywhere

Sat, 02/02/2013 - 01:18 | 3208644 neutrinoman
neutrinoman's picture

It also reminds me of late 2009 and early 2010, especially with all the talk of interest rate normalization. Don't bet on it.

Sat, 02/02/2013 - 04:36 | 3208773 enloe creek
enloe creek's picture

sold all my ar clones and ammo , hope i get taken to fema camp after shtf so i can watch all the wives of deceased gun owners who tried to stand up to uncle sam go through the humpty hump with the gaurds

Sat, 02/02/2013 - 05:49 | 3208805 helping_friendl...
helping_friendly_book's picture

Please look at this to explain why the people in North America are being abuse by the "chosen ones"

This news clip is from FOX news so I can say it is right wing.

if you watch the whole video you will be appalled by the truth.

I never thought I would ever claim a Fox news segment as the most honest reporting I have ever seen.

Bloomberg will not allow me to post this video.

the truth watch if you dare

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hS89vNH-eeY

It seems Bloomberg news hires disqus to censor their comment section.

Please feel free to go to any Bloomberg article and post this news report produced by FOX news.

I think disqus is paid by the piece, meaning they are paid a set amount for every censor of a comment.

I propose we break Bloomberg by posting this video, which is red pill stuff, on every article produced on Bloomberg.com

 

Sat, 02/02/2013 - 20:19 | 3209933 CJHames
CJHames's picture

Go peddle your Jew-hating trash someplace else.  Enough already.  Grow the hell up.

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!