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Four Charts To Panic The "Money On The Sidelines" Hopers
If yesterday's indications of the near-record overweight net long positioning in Russell 2000 Futures & incredible net short VIX futures positioning, along with the extreme flows contrarian indication was not enough to concern investors that the 'money' is in, then the following four charts should cross the tipping point. Citi's Panic/Euphoria guage for US stocks has only been more euphoric on two occasions - Q4 2000 & 2008; Goldman's S&P 500 positioning has only been this extremely long-biased on two occasions - Q4 2008 & Q2 2011; and Barclays' credit-equity divergence has only been this over-bought stocks on two occasions - Q4 2008 & Q2 2012. It doesn't take a PhD to comprehend the extent of excess priced into stocks currently - no matter what Maria B tries to tell us.
Citi's Panic/Euphoria Model indicates extreme 'euphoria' - which has led to significant equity market losses in the past...
Goldman's S&P 500 Positioning has only been this extreme long twice before - and both were followed by dramatic sell-offs....
and Barclays points out what we have discussed, that stocks (and implied vols) are dramatically over-priced relative to Investment grade credit...
and high-yield credit...
via Barclays,
At the index level, the drop in equity volatility over the course of the last month has resulted in credit spreads in the US appearing too wide relative to SPX weighted average implied volatility. While we have been highlighting this for the HY index over the last couple of months, the cheapness of credit relative to equity implied volatility is now a feature even in the case of the IG index.
Whether the smart money is all-in ready to unwind to the dumb money is unclear but one thing is clear - the US equity market is as levered long and over its skis as it has ever been - trade accordingly...
Source: Goldman Sachs, Citi, and Barclays
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The coming collapse will send us back to the stone age
Hopefully not that far back.
There's no way I would bet on anything falling faster than the dollar. Not saying that markets won't sell off here, but I wouldn't bet on it. If it does sell of it will be short lived as the Fed will rush in to increase QE. It's much more likely that there's a massive rally in real terms and a devastating crash in nominal terms.
Hey Tyler, can you please write more about the french "disastrous" campaign in Mali? (from your previous article: "Last week we reported that in the aftermath of the so far disastrous French campaign to eradicate "rebels" in the north of Mali" http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-01-20/us-was-operating-mali-months-pr...)
Folks, this is what disastrous look like:
"Timbuktu Gives France’s President an Ecstatic Welcome"
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/02/03/world/africa/france-hollande-timbuktu-...
lol...
All That Pivots is Gold
By Pepe Escobar
http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article33811.htm
You are a total fool though. Do you remember russkis marching truimphantly into afganistan? More recently americans swooping in to there and baghdad? Remember happy iraqis shitting on hussein statue? That ended fast did it?
It hillarious how hollande is doing his version of "mission accomplished" and how stupid trolls like you fall for it.
So folks, lets judge in another year or two.. If french have any brains they will dump it on african alliance and run!
I'm kinda hoping to stop at least at the dark ages. Stone age would suck.
Stone age would be better ay least you do not have to put up with the crazy religious demigods.
At least that won't be as bad as living in Detroit.
+1
Yep, you'll always have Miami...
A whopping 364,000 properties in the Miami area have entered the foreclosure process since 2008, according to RealtyTrac. The number of foreclosure filings slowed in Miami and across the country last year, but the housing market is far from a comeback.
That is because the banks stopped forclosures. Millions of people are still living in their uh bank owned homes rent free.
Re'fied my house in Jan 2007.
I didn't make payments to Countrywide/BofA for three years, and Chase on the 2d for the same period.
I sued to stop foreclosure b/c the sigs on the substitution of trustee and notice of default were obviously forged and faulty. (Coincidence...the lawyer for BofA...his wife was raised in my house.)
Settled with bank two years ago. Waited for bank to come take possession...but it didn't.
Then, nine months ago, BofA threatened to foreclose again. Then sent a aletter saying, help us shortsell it, and we'll pay you $5k to $3k at closing.
Ok
Just closed two days ago. BofA ate $400k+. No deficiency. Chase ate $175k+. No deficiency. Buyer paid $40k in junior liens.
And I walked from closing with $5k.
Dumped $600k in unsecured debt and walked away with money in pocket.
A reverse bankruptcy.
This was a ridiculous outcome. Amoral.
But, I took it happily.
Not bad considering the national Shadow Inventory is somewhere about 13,000,000.
ZH is dope for bears. It's designed to sucker in the shorts. Good luck.
Except most ZH'ers stopped trading years ago when they realized that retail investors were the fool in the market.
$ ISN'T ON THE SIDELINES. Tyler, money is running scared for the next .1% of return on ZIRP.
Ass wipe fiat is in vogue/
We were talking about it about 1 hr ago and baaaaam, ZH obliges.
We were. Gotta love Z/H!
The IDIOCRACY is to believe that there's MONEY ON THE SIDELINES... Run [as fast as you can] AWAY from anyone that ever tries 2 sell you that line...
The Fallacy, [is that money is on the sidelines,] While corporate buybacks, and consolidation > equal higher earnings.
Top line revenue is shrinking, and 60% OF "TOP LINE" Revenue is from [ over seas] earnings, with most large Cap " US Names".
That $85 b the Fed. is injecting every Month, is going straight to the emerging markets. Look at the Shanghai exchange/
Hong Kong and Singapore are so flush with "funny money" they are exploring "negative interest" policies.
The Fed. is pumping money into TBTF, and killing the economy !
Bernanke should be SKULL FUCKED!
Do you know why that 85b is going to shanghai etc?
What is the route of the flow of money?
That flow of "ponzi capital" will flow directly into the United States treasury, as intrest paid on medium term notes, there -by lowering rates on the long end of the curve.
Yen i am not sure that is right.. Fed been printing for 4 years now but shanghai comp been sinking like a rock up until nov 2012. So thing is i cant figure out if the charts in this post have real relevance when money gets printed out of thin air and distributed to banks on an almost daily basis.
The absurdity is the notion that money somehow flows into and out of stocks.
haha isnt margining and notional loan backed "assets" money as well.....?
You mean Bill Gross? He says money going into stocks is coming from cash and Money Markets-not bonds. Then Maria asks him when he's boning up on bonds LOL at 5:00: http://xrepublic.tv/node/2003
Those four charts may or may not "panic the hopers", but they sure confused this bear.
No confusion to short like F*CK
or to pair trade the 2 sigma HY/IG rack
But the shorts have been getting toasted by the Fed money printing QE infinity. Any ideas when this will break? The charts on things like the S&P500 and RUT are absurd.
try this fcast
http://seekingalpha.com/article/1152861-fasten-your-safety-belts-in-2013
No, no !
Dow to 14000 and beyond...
http://www.usfunds.com/investor-resources/investor-alert/#.UQ2MGRG9KK0
Great the sheep have payed off their credit cards, now what ? Are they suppose to go out and charge them up again ?
Those charts look "Good enough for government work". - Goldman
Perhaps the tell-tale sign of an impending top is when the talking heads talk the loudest as if stocks will never go down again (e.g. some loudmouth claiming the Fed should buy another $30 Trillion in assets to help eradicate the national debt...).
FUBAR to the max.
Agreed. Iv never heard so much "to infinity and beyond" speak as what I'm getting force fed at present. I am just astonished that people don't see the wood from the trees. I really do feel at times that I am actually the nutty one. That the people that I talk to, who back away from me when I talk of the real state of the economy and the outright theft that is happening right under their noses, think that I'm some kind of doom freak. They honestly look at me like I'm a lunatic fringe. I have given up trying to join any discussion about it. I really do feel the odd one out. ZH is the only place that seems to make any kind of sense right now.
A report from a Spicers 'financial expert' today advising people to pour all their money into the US stock market as its about to boom!? Seriously WTF. It just seems lately that things are beginning to esculate. in light of the economic shit hole we are in right now, this europhic talk is evidence we are in for one hell of reality check sooner rather than later.
Chubby....Only try to realize the truth....There is no spoon....
There is a national desperation...everybody wants to win the lottery and get rich without the trouble of "working for it"...so folks talking bout DOW riches and the like are welcomed as messiahs. And markets will nominally continue to lift so long as QE4EVER continues...but casualties will be heavy.
Common sense and stay up on your reading. Bottom line is, it is going down but not sure about timing but I think sooner than later. When big brother starts planning how they are going to take your 401K and your guns at the same time along with telling you it's 14000 and to the moon, it smells really bad. I have but 1 friend that understands what is going on and when you do bring it up to others, your crazy
Tv and Hollywood make people brainwashed retards. You watch it - you empower the scum. The public lives in TV alternative reality. It is ****ing mind control of idiots. Plenty of idiots here watch TV like tards especailly the old baby boomers.
In case you haven't heard this in the last 24 hours or so... you're a moran.
Buy at the top and sell at the bottom ... makes sense. Just listen to MSM financial commentaries. The same jokers who, like all the economisseds during Sept 2008 were suddenly revealed to have zero clue whatsoever about how markets or economies actually work. The naughty economy went off-script on them.
I can see why many people turn into misanthropes. It's not because they actually hate or distrust people, its more a function of realizing the vast majority of people are insane retards that are beyond any possibility of redemption, but see fit to wallow in extreme dumbness, so why try to get people to snap out of it? The truth is they can only snap out of it themselves, usually in flailing desperation at some grave inevitable system-induced personal crisis-point.
Thus humanity has no basis to shine genuinely in the way it can. Instead we have this nonsense of shit-eating suckers and fools ignorantly behaving like the state-politico-economic-market-system is worth a damn or worthy of support, commitment and affinity, until it becomes undeniable that it is a monstrously corrupt abomination and all those serving it's process are corrupted to the same common extent, and if that were not so, then they simply wouldn't "fit-in", any more, and would then have to de-program from this hive-mind MSM driven cult-of-belief-in-lies, and thus necessarily re-think, reprocess and relearn what real is.
Which would be a very good and healthy thing. But unfortunately this also appears utterly and completely barking-madness, as well as extremely scarey and not for the faint-of-heart, usually inducing a psychological fight-or-flight response. Hence they almost always swerve away from facing the actual situation they're in.
And so it is; the dog returns to its vomit.
Anybody here remember 1998-1999? You would go out to lunch and CNBC would be on everywhere. Sub shops, lower cost casual places, McDonalds. You could not hold a conversation with anyone because they were watching the market. This was not on Wall Street or a big city either and these were avg people. CNBC hying .dot bomb stocks including investment banks trading back and forth with each other on the IPO day to make dogshit.com a $150 stock. Corzine and Goldman were doing it as well as all the other investment banks,
I loathe CNBC and ALL of TV. Lying propagandists.
I've got your money on the sidelines.
I've got it hanging between my legs.
Give up your hopes and dreams.
We're fucked.
http://www.angrysinner.blogspot.kr/2013/02/yesterday-morning-i-had-hankering-for.html
I just got out ....... so it should double soon.
FRED data shows massive "flow" of "new money" is underway (no suprise now that Op Twist is over and full QE is back)...and with no end in sight (no clear "new money" finish line to be front run ala QE1, 2, op twist)...piggies are lined up at the teat. FUCKING A...yes it's different this time. Sociopaths are all in now...There is no backing off now from $85b a month and it will need to go higher as $85b is the "new norm"..."progress" will require more "new money"
Fucking A Tylers - They don't need money from the sidelines anymore, PD's buys a T on 9x leverage, Fed buys it back and credits acct in full, loan is paid and now there's more money...they make the shit up, banks leverage it up and voila...more money to chase prices up every fucking day without retail or any other quaint group moving in...only places we've seen this before are Germany, Zimbabwe, etc. Once pensions, insurance, retail, et al do come in to go along for the ride w/ all the leveraged big boys...that is when we go Dow 25000 or some such awe inspiring #...We are they but this time we are taking everybody to the moon and back with us. So long as QE4EVER continues then stock market goes up. Tell me when/if Fed stops or slows down and I'll tell you where the top is.
This market is going to go more parabolic than 1998-2000 NASDAQ did...it is the Zimbabwe-rally and I predict that within one year, the U.S.S Nimitz will be gassing up in Gibraltar and trying to buy potatoes and the credit card will be refused. The Republic will be called "Wiemar" replacing "United States" and JP Morgan will be in charge of the new global currency that will replace the USD as the New World Reserve Currency which will contain zero gold or silver.
This clip reveals how the elites have brainwashed everyone.
http://dauckster.posterous.com/a-31-year-old-video-clip-absolutely-worth...
I actually think we have a correction first, 10 - 20%. Then retail money be convinced that this is now a good time to buy.
You are not participating and it's killing you. They've got you second guessing yourself. What if it really IS different this time, and I'm left eating their dust? What if I wake up Monday morning and the dollar has crashed, the Dow is 25,000 and gold is $20,000?? What if? What it?
This is when you know it is mania. Let the lemmings run without you.
AAPL to $1000. It's a sure thing, you can't lose! The government are going to madate iPads in schools!
Yeah right, the market is always wrong. Buy low, buy what nobody wants. That's a bit of a challenge at the moment, everything is high, maybe it's cash that nobody wants any more. EUR? USD? USD, the EUR looks like it's going to 1.4 before turning round.
its totally clear the smart has started and will contineu to unload to the dumb money. -1.% gdp, yet wsj healine says 'economy drives markets higher'. that pos article was by far the most bullish one sided muppet food i can remeber encountering. that issue is a keeper, going onto the stack to show people in the near future, that all finance media is consumer at ones own peril. the wsj is 'what they want us to think today'.
Dude ALL TV, Hollywood and other media like WSJ is total sh*t. They all support O and this madness. You said a keeper to show people in the future. You are expecting in the future that Amerika will ever return to "normal" aka pre-2008.
Both parties are fucked. Self employ,
European banks have a bootload of Bernanke loot to pile in for a while.
BTFD
It feels as if we are poised at the edge of an epic event. Deep down inside, every one of us intuits what lies just ahead. We are about to witness first hand, the economic crash of the once greatest country in the world. Each of us is trying to envision how this unwinds. World Wars follow these types of economic events, and the regional bullys all have their sleeves rolled up in anticipation.
It simply is not possible to put into words the events that will transpire during this crash and this war. Forces and technologies never before seen are about to be unleashed on the world's unsuspecting populations. The president will simply take the elevator down into the newly remodeled bunker below the white house, turn on a video screen and watch in horror as the out-of-control events are witnessed first hand by him, his mouth agape, eyes staring incredulously, family crying, unable to stop the bombs and the explosions and the loss of life.
There won't be a whole lot left TO rebuild, and if anyone survives, it will most likely be decades before radiation levels, population levels and motivation levels create any desire to move ahead.
I started to type more, but, I simply don't have the energy right now. Each day I follow the events of the world and watch the deterioration of my rights, what used to be the country I loved, of morality, of humanity, and it's truly depressing at times. Luckily I don't take drugs to escape and I use meditation to ground myself and try to bring a fresh attitude into each new day, but as each day goes by, I can tell we are getting ever so close to the final curtain being drawn on this tragi-comedy. I wish everyone the best in the days ahead and hope that those of us who can SEE will do the wise thing, whatever that may be, and make it through to some semblence of 'the other side', maybe someday?
white house, turn on a video screen and watch in horror
What is gonna happen is all by design. He and his backers did this. They will fly off to Hawaii and play golf all day.
Geez wake up and turn off TV. Fools who watch TV and Hollywood keep these people in power.
How can things continue to show improvement when the M2 velocity continues to crash. The markets make no sense at all!
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/M2V
jim, great link. Too bad they don't still publish M3.
It would also be interesting to see this graph with a CPI overlay, and a timeline going back to, oh, say 1910.
Seriously though, and proportionately speaking, has this much "money" has been thrown into the economy since "The Continental"? And if it's not being used to create and buy actual stuff that people use, then it has nowhere to go but back to the bankers?
Since the M2 Money Stock continues to increase and velocity is decreasing, it could just reflect the stagnet economy that we have. There has been some GDP growth over the last few years but not much. Below is a link to M2 Money Stock. Above the chart there is a link for the last 5 quarters showing continuig growth.
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/M2SL
I wonder if at the beginning they will call it a correction when the market is actually crashing. The disconnect between a contracting economy and expanding stock indexes will not persist. The only thing that this administration has had to point to, to claim that the economy was on the mend was market indexes, when that is gone what will be the next lie?
Sorry i must be very naive but isnt the relevance of the above effectively suspended for as long as Bernankerfucker keep printing? I mean money on the sidelines term is irrelevant when we have 85 bln popping out of the printer every month. While we do there effectively is an ocean of money that we are sitting next to... Its as big as there is ink out there..
Am i wrong on this?
Money is only good (effective) if price is dependent on value. In the current financial environment, an increase in perceived value corresponds with an increase in price. 85 billion worth of printed money will push the stock market higher in an environment where society has belief, faith, trust in the dollar bill. Hyperinflation describes an environment where price moves independently of value. Hyperinflation therefore also describes an environment where society has lost belief, faith, trust in the dollar bill.
You are not wrong. 85 billion dollars worth of printed money will continue to push the stock market higher untill we find ourselves in an environment where society has lost belief, faith, trust in the dollar bill. It appears however, that we are rapidly approaching such an environment. The recent overwhelming euphoric rhetoric used to describe the stockmarket, despite the overwhelming evidence of a contracting world economy is a ominous sign that we are facing a profound paradigm shift.
Yes thank you, i think you raise a few great points. I have mentioned here before that in history (if i am not mistaken) therre has never been a period of true rapid hyperinflation - ie devaluation of 100% per year plus of a reserve currency.
Usd is a reserve currency and in my view will remian it for as long as US has complete military supremacy over the rest of the world. There is a very interesting catch 22 here - US military spending is killing the countrybyet its keeping its currency afloat.
I do agree that when ppl start telling you that fundamentals in the economy dont matter (2000, 2007) its time to run for the hills. But the above article is focusing on nominal equity values. And so i feel that the charts above become almost meaningless in a helicopter ben world.
I agree. Radical Marijuana, in other posts, decribes the situation well and his/her points are not disimilar to what you have stated. Lies backed by military force. Total control of the massses by an almost invisible, self imposed stupifying. The apparent willingness of the vast majority of society to harbour an almost total dismissive attitude toward the real meaning of money. They have no idea - and want to remain in a state of having no idea - untill such a time when they are made to react to a situation that directly adversely affects them. These kind of 'awakening' events though, are those that TPTB cannot always control. I can't help thinking that we are fast approaching one of these events.
Great research! So appreciative for ZeroHedge- Peace, Blessings, and Prosper :-)
New name, new innos D9 , new era. That's probably the best way to describe BlackBerry right now.