The Un-Manipulated Market That Keeps Merkel Awake At Night

Tyler Durden's picture




 

It would appear that either Germans have stopped using electricity (now that is some severe austerity) or the 'real' economy in the core powerhouse of Europe's growth is struggling notably more than the nominal price of its stock market would imply. Applying the same 'myth-busting' data-series to Germany as we have in China, it is clear that expectations for greater electricity demand (and implicitly economic growth) are grossly different to the expectations priced into German stocks.

...or they just discovered cold fusion...

 

Charts: Bloomberg

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Sun, 02/03/2013 - 15:18 | 3211354 ar01
ar01's picture

Easy, the Fed will start buying electricity all over the world. Nothing to see, move along. 

Sun, 02/03/2013 - 15:25 | 3211371 ekm
ekm's picture

LOOOOL.

SUPER HILARIOUS

Sun, 02/03/2013 - 15:38 | 3211408 Pinto Currency
Pinto Currency's picture

 

Perhaps renewable energy affecting pricing at the margins as well as slow down in demand:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Renewable_energy_in_Germany

Sun, 02/03/2013 - 16:17 | 3211504 ThirdWorldDude
ThirdWorldDude's picture

Right, with so many nuke plants around Germany must be "swimming" in free energy... Oh, wait!

Sun, 02/03/2013 - 16:32 | 3211542 ekm
ekm's picture

correct

Sun, 02/03/2013 - 17:41 | 3211690 Pinto Currency
Pinto Currency's picture

Nuke is not free however solar and wind are adding lots of capacity.

Mon, 02/04/2013 - 08:26 | 3212801 ATM
ATM's picture

and they cost more than Nuke. So you do the math.

Mon, 02/04/2013 - 13:49 | 3213706 Panafrican Funk...
Panafrican Funktron Robot's picture

They cost more on a free market basis, with the very large majority of that cost loaded on the front end (ex., wind power has very little maintenance cost, but large up-front cost to build relative to electricity output).  This analysis likely doesn't take into account German electricity subsidies specific to renewables; in many instances the German government fully funded the up-front cost to build.  

Sun, 02/03/2013 - 15:25 | 3211372 EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

printing presses use a lot of energy it would seem

Sun, 02/03/2013 - 15:38 | 3211409 Cheesy Bastard
Cheesy Bastard's picture

I think they can just print electricity, right?  It's like when I run out of paper at the office.  I just tell the secretary to fax me some blank paper.

Sun, 02/03/2013 - 15:46 | 3211429 flacon
flacon's picture

good one. But I usually tell her to fax me a beer. I feel a lot better that way. :)

Sun, 02/03/2013 - 15:26 | 3211374 Say What Again
Say What Again's picture

I have 1,000,000 Kilo-Volts between my matress right now.

I also built a Wardenclyffe Tower in my back yard

Sun, 02/03/2013 - 15:47 | 3211434 flacon
flacon's picture

I have 1,000,000 Kilo-Volts between my legs right now.

 

Wow. Strong manhood! ;)

Sun, 02/03/2013 - 19:24 | 3211892 bobthehorse
bobthehorse's picture

German babes are hot.

They like to dress up as Nazis.

Sexy little vixens!

http://www.angrysinner.blogspot.kr/2013/02/yesterday-morning-i-had-hankering-for.html

Sun, 02/03/2013 - 15:21 | 3211358 orez65
orez65's picture

It is what you should expect for a country going into recession.

Sun, 02/03/2013 - 15:21 | 3211360 EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

with cheaper electricity there's more monies on the sidelinez

 

Sun, 02/03/2013 - 15:24 | 3211368 ekm
ekm's picture

LOL, lovely.

Money in the sidelines is simply money printed fresh but left over after everything up for sale was bought up.

Sun, 02/03/2013 - 15:22 | 3211364 ekm
ekm's picture

How many times do I have to repeat this.

 

The respective governments have already bought up whatever was up for sale of their own stock markets by use of their own 'primary dealers'.

People, that is self evident. If none is buying, the only buyer left is the gov/central/primary dealers.

 

Gov/central bank/primary dealers is ONE ENTITY with different suboffices.

Sun, 02/03/2013 - 15:25 | 3211369 max2205
max2205's picture

Gas $4.00 now per gal. Barry dropped it before the election and now it's time for pain

Sun, 02/03/2013 - 15:31 | 3211385 Aurora Ex Machina
Aurora Ex Machina's picture

Increasing German renewable power is under-cutting wholesale electricity prices across its borders, which may harm energy investments in neighbouring countries.

The overall picture is of widening impacts on grids across central Europe from the ramp up in German renewables.

German solar power generation was up 47 percent in the first half of 2012 compared with the same period last year, and wind power generation up 21 percent, data from the Fraunhofer Institute show.

One impact from rising intermittent German wind power generation in the north of the country is of electricity spilling into neighbouring networks en route back into southern Germany or Austria, called loop flows.

Another is of rising exports of cheaper, intermittent power, undercutting the economics of baseload power in Germany's neighbours.

Exports of German power to the Czech Republic, for example, are up four-fold in the first 10 months of the year compared with the same period in 2010.

A group of four east European grid operators, from the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia, has argued to split the Germany-Austria bidding zone, limiting the geographical area across which bidders can purchase wholesale power directly at the same price.[source]

 

Whilst industrial output is certainly down a bit, this is likely the cause for the spike downwards you're seeing, surely?

Sun, 02/03/2013 - 15:36 | 3211402 ekm
ekm's picture

Typical climate change bogus article from Reuters.

Sun, 02/03/2013 - 16:22 | 3211515 Aurora Ex Machina
Aurora Ex Machina's picture

I'll spell this out nicely for you:

It doesn't matter if you think Climate Change is real or not, decisions are being made on the premise that it is, so hedge accordingly. Unless you're claiming that the Reuters' story is false, Germany hasn't shoved massive amounts of subsidies into the clean energy production side, and is not exporting the glut?

 

In for a penny, in for a pound as they say...

Sun, 02/03/2013 - 18:23 | 3211760 insanelysane
insanelysane's picture

Climate change is real; it just comes down to if it is caused by humans or caused by other natural forces.  

Sun, 02/03/2013 - 18:29 | 3211773 knukles
knukles's picture

Sun, not son, grandson, step son, neighbor's son, unknown son, bunches and bunches, gobs and gobs of sons, here or there sons, everybody's son, momma's son, yo momma's son, idiot son, numblah one flavolite son, just plain fucking SUN

The A in AGW should stand for something along the lines of Astronomical ...
Why in case you all missed it there's been released some semi private (no longer) papers form the UN mentioning that golly gosh gee whiz, the SUN just might account for most of that stuff in reality, anyhow.

Sun, 02/03/2013 - 18:37 | 3211787 Aurora Ex Machina
Aurora Ex Machina's picture

Disproven. Old, old talking point via Koch Industries. ZZZZzz.

An no, I'm not going to do the massive derail here. Either you believe in science, or you don't. I can't police your inability to deal with reality no more than I desire to police your intake of mind-bending substances. All I ask is that you aren't included in actually deciding anything based on your opinion.

 

That's why meritocracy is good, jah?

Sun, 02/03/2013 - 18:56 | 3211832 ThirdWorldDude
ThirdWorldDude's picture

Buzzzz. Offff.

 

(not one, but two separate articles from NASA)

Sun, 02/03/2013 - 19:03 | 3211843 Aurora Ex Machina
Aurora Ex Machina's picture

Do you even understand the links you're presenting?

 

From the second NASA link:

Raymond Bradley of UMass, who has studied historical records of solar activity imprinted by radioisotopes in tree rings and ice cores, says that regional rainfall seems to be more affected than temperature.  "If there is indeed a solar effect on climate, it is manifested by changes in general circulation rather than in a direct temperature signal."  This fits in with the conclusion of the IPCC and previous NRC reports that solar variability is NOT the cause of global warming over the last 50 years.

 

 

Fuck off.

Mon, 02/04/2013 - 00:55 | 3212573 ThirdWorldDude
ThirdWorldDude's picture

Shove your AGW so deep up your ass so it tingles your throat!

 

Fuck you and the carbon credit financed Syndicate you rode on to...

Tue, 02/05/2013 - 19:36 | 3218146 Aurora Ex Machina
Aurora Ex Machina's picture

When you learn to actually read a NASA PR report, and don't quote some backwater nonsense source, I might listen to you.

 

Oh, wait.

 

Come back to me when you can actually understand the science - until then, let your intellectual betters deal with it. Muppet.

Sun, 02/03/2013 - 18:37 | 3211789 tip e. canoe
tip e. canoe's picture

latest vid from suspicious0bserver

Energy from Space

I'm always suspicious when I hear only one side of any story.

Sun, 02/03/2013 - 19:14 | 3211837 Aurora Ex Machina
Aurora Ex Machina's picture

There's some serious science in here, not just a young seeker without much clue.

Remember, 9/11 saw a +2 rise in only a few days of planes being grounded. Global Dimming via planes, 'tis real.

 

What if I told you that chemtrails were real, but were being used to increase the albedo and to keep a certain strain of beastie from hitting the ground? That fits the science far better than any Alex Jones nonsense. I see the "chemtrails", and know that the war being fought - is being lost, but not in the way you think it is. Just depends what blue skies bring. Terraforming; always happens on the level of the micro, not the macro. If you've the nose, look into bacterial dispersant warfare.

“Hope,... which whispered from Pandora's box after all the other plagues and sorrows had escaped, is the best and last of all things. Without it, there is only time. And time pushes at our backs like a centrifuge, forcing outward and away, until it nudges us into oblivion... It's a law of motion, a fact of physics..., no different from the stages of white dwarves and red giants. Like all things in the universe, we are destined from birth to diverge. Time is simply the yardstick of our separation. If we are particles in a sea of distance, exploded from an original whole, then there is a science to our solitude. We are lonely in proportion to our years.”

 

What were the skies like when you were young?

Sun, 02/03/2013 - 20:18 | 3211987 tip e. canoe
tip e. canoe's picture

supposedly, there's also fungi in space

personally, i'd rather be bombarded with e.coli & metal-eating fungus than getting sprayed by an unknown combination of chemicals from a recipe concocted by a room full of Dr. Strangeloves.  that's what probiotics are for.  but that's me. 

thing is: where is there on the planet where i can live with the consequences of my choice and not by yours?   or is it written in the Grand Rules of "Meritocrachy" that only those who are deemed "Meritocritous" are entitled to make the Decision for the rest of us?

tl/dr i see your little fluffy clouds and raise you golden ones, shining with the sun.

Sun, 02/03/2013 - 21:11 | 3212036 Aurora Ex Machina
Aurora Ex Machina's picture

Well, lordy, lordy lordy, won't you look at all those junks.

The "jah" was an ironic tilt against the 4th Reich, n'cest pas? (JA! <> JAH, you'd have to have a basis in post-war comics for that though - rough translation for you Yanks: many a comic where the evil Germans were fooled by the cunning Tommy just saying "Ja!" when challenged) I forget that subtlety doesn't always transpose (although, I appreciate the flip to the Jamaican for a smile). 

Fungi in space is all too Cthulhu; all I know is that when I admitted defeat in a location, the air was suddenly full of the planar drift.

 

As for that serious question: I was told, "there are few places without them now".  For the outcome? You should visit I.M. Banks "Player of Games". “Escape is a consumer goods like another".

[Hi-jinks - read until the end, for the real meaning, both in the book, in the world and in the thread].

 

“As every flower fades and as all youth
Departs, so life at every stage,
So every virtue, so our grasp of truth,
Blooms in its day and may not last forever.
Since life may summon us at every age
Be ready, heart, for parting, new endeavor,
Be ready bravely and without remorse
To find new light that old ties cannot give.
In all beginnings dwells a magic force
For guarding us and helping us to live.

Serenely let us move to distant places
And let no sentiments of home detain us.
The Cosmic Spirit seeks not to restrain us
But lifts us stage by stage to wider spaces.
If we accept a home of our own making,
Familiar habit makes for indolence.
We must prepare for parting and leave-taking
Or else remain the slaves of permanence.

Even the hour of our death may send
Us speeding on to fresh and newer spaces,
And life may summon us to newer races.
So be it, heart: bid farewell without end.”

 

 


Let us return to our roots.

Sun, 02/03/2013 - 21:23 | 3212083 tip e. canoe
tip e. canoe's picture

let's...

who said anything about escape?   maybe more like engage, just not an Engagement as Defined by the Annointed Ones (whether the O.G.'s or the 2.0's makes no difference when looking from above (or below)).

that pyramid flotaing on the top of the Pyramid looks like a cage to me, even with the fancy Eye painted on its side.    there's a world that exists beyond the Grip if you only are willing to let go and trust in those you are now look down upon.   just don't wait too long to let down your hair, Repunzel.   even bodhisatvic behavior has its expiration date when a tsunami approaches.

 

Mon, 02/04/2013 - 00:07 | 3212500 knukles
knukles's picture

"there's a world that exists beyond the Grip if you only are willing to let go"

 

Si....

Tue, 02/05/2013 - 20:07 | 3218142 Aurora Ex Machina
Aurora Ex Machina's picture

Rule x3 as taught, and of course it is a cage:

Genocide / death to unbelievers

Rape / female subjugation

Ignorance / culling birth of mind

Those are the angles of the triangle, and what keeps it going - not the usage, but the bulwarks to keep them out, to allow the higher Eye in the space without them. Remember: God is not good.

If you want me to engage, then there is only one answer. Why save you?

How sick I am of the unannounced and engaged flitting by and telling me that I am "too heavy". Perhaps they should remember their planar responsibilities and either engage or educate?  And if that is the "lighter" side, then ~ so what.

Tsunami?

Think well on your position: when both sides descend into rabid fundamentalism, then you're both open to the wave. Really.

Think hard and long: perhaps this time, both of your sides are now totally and ultimately on the road to obsolescence.

 

And that is a good thing. Oh, and bye the bye - that's an INTERNATIONAL community, a perfect blueprint for world order being created, in the 1960's. Listen more closely, little ones. Closer, closer, closer.

Now let your hair down. Tell me to save them? Hmm. You should treat your genetic outliers better, methinks, lest they bite you. Sterile Mules? Now, that's a bad place to put a being; without a future, who knows what present they'll damage?


All the blame, when your communication is so bad. Sigh.

Mon, 02/04/2013 - 08:21 | 3212790 hyperbole2000
hyperbole2000's picture

Your premise is correct. The sun is the biggest input  into the planet's energy balance. The millions of yeas of solar input contained in the fossilozed plant matter called hydro-carbons is evidence of that.  In 100 yearw we have belched into the energy balance 1000000 yeas of solar input.

Sun, 02/03/2013 - 19:31 | 3211906 Seer
Seer's picture

The base argument is this: Either the climate is changing or it is not.

Those claiming that the climate is not changing are effectively arguing that everything is static: for everything to be static we would have NO weather system, the water cycle would NOT exist.

Many civilizations have collapsed due to an inability to manage severe changes in climate.

Climate change, therefore, DOES occur.

Humans are (proven to have been) affected by changes in climate.

Because humans affect their surroundings logic would tend to agree that human have an affect on the climate.

It really comes down to how much change is occurring due to human activities.  I tend to step past all of this and go directly to what change WILL happen no matter what humans do- the next glacial period WILL come, and all we could ever hope to do is change the time in which it happens (a week? a decade? a century? who knows!).  But, tossing away logic and the scientific method of discovery is, IMO, a stupid thing to do.

People will profit off things no matter which way things go.  And TPTB will surf the currents like they always do...

Sun, 02/03/2013 - 21:48 | 3212125 A Humble Man
A Humble Man's picture

I sure hope climate change is real!!!!   It was minus 30 here last week.  Bring on the warm winters.  I cant wait.

Mon, 02/04/2013 - 08:31 | 3212810 ATM
ATM's picture

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/German_Renewable_Energy_Act

Germany has shoved massive amnounts of money into renewables and intends to shove even more. No doubt to enrich and empower the people that Farage despises.

Sun, 02/03/2013 - 22:48 | 3212292 Dewey Cheatum Howe
Dewey Cheatum Howe's picture

The climate is always changing......... Been doing it since day 1 and will continue until the planet no longer exists. It is lazy use of language for nefarious reasons.

Sun, 02/03/2013 - 15:37 | 3211406 schatzi
schatzi's picture

Good post. Whilst electricity prices may be a signal for waning demand, in this instance it isn't as the German energy market combined with subsidies is undergoing a radical transformation.

Sun, 02/03/2013 - 15:52 | 3211442 OpenThePodBayDoorHAL
OpenThePodBayDoorHAL's picture

F*ck, more deflationary pressure, Internet, energy, trade...

Sun, 02/03/2013 - 15:57 | 3211457 Mountainview
Mountainview's picture

Germans continue to feed their subsidized green electricity into the grid---disturbing market forces,like the ECB does with interest rates--long live the Soviet Union of Europe...

Sun, 02/03/2013 - 19:39 | 3211922 Seer
Seer's picture

"disturbing market forces"

Would those be what they are if not for govts routing out locals (right or ways) and paving roads, channeling rivers etc, so that these "market forces" could get their products to market?

I'm NOT defending govt activities.

Because there is almost nothing that we do that is truly sustainable EVERYTHING is a subsidy.

Those "market forces" are going to crash and burn when cheap energy/fossil fuels go away: who doesn't get what Afghanistan and Iraq were all about? (ALL WARS ARE ABOUT RESOURCES)

So, when the markets crash (recall that these non-disturbed markets are all algo-driven for short-term profits) what energy would there be?

One "word:" Enron

That the Germans elected to invest in energy collection (it's not generation- one cannot "generate" energy, it can only be liberated/altered/re-formed) is totally their call.

Sun, 02/03/2013 - 16:08 | 3211462 AGoldhamster
AGoldhamster's picture

It is a fact - I live nearby. There have been strong winds recently in the north of Germany and in the follow up prices collapsed.

An interesting side effect was that their electricity net was close to collapsing (think of overtraffic) and they had to buy energy from Austria to keep the south afloat, while Austria bought cheap wind energy.

I'm a fan of Tyler - but in this case the article unfortunately is clearly misleading based on wrong conclusions based on wrong facts. BTW this was also in the local news last week.

At least the last spike south is based on that oversupply. Possibly though not everything what happened before last week. Although it is known as a fact since weeks and months that there is a bottleneck - too much renewable energy in the north, with which the energy net has trouble to deal with.

Sun, 02/03/2013 - 19:46 | 3211933 Seer
Seer's picture

This is a good demonstration of distribution issues.  This is the case with ALL energy, from oil and coal to natural gas.  Everything is set up with distribution hubs feeding/supplying defined regions.  Of course, like anything else that is BIG, there are also BIG problems lurking, and when there are failures it is BIG.  But... the "markets" need this activity in order to keep churning (ponder how big trucking is).

Sun, 02/03/2013 - 22:23 | 3212209 orez65
orez65's picture

"Increasing German renewable power ..."

This is total bull shit.

German solar power installations don't produce any electricity in the winter due to cloud cover.

Their financial minister has stated that solar power subsidies are bankrupting their government!

Solar panels in Germany is like growing pineapples in Alaska.

The fact about windpower is that you get no power when the wind stops blowing or decreases below min sustainable speed.

Renewable power is a fucking scam, assholes!

Sun, 02/03/2013 - 22:52 | 3212308 Dewey Cheatum Howe
Dewey Cheatum Howe's picture

I believe it is no more than about 10% of the total capacity of any power grid should run on green energy like solar and wind. Anything more than that will have a destabilizing effect when the wind don't blow and the sun don't shine.

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